Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - A Big Market Lesson to Teach.

Episode Date: May 10, 2022

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Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for detail. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host.

A thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It is Tuesday, May 10th, 2022. Hope you're having a good day. Ladies and gentlemen, my peeps, our peeps. Gary's Gallery. Okay, I made that up. As you know, this show is about you and everything that affects you and your well-being.

Your job, your industry, the markets, your 401k, your money. And our simple goal is to keep you one step ahead of the market. Or just in lockstep would be good enough. In the midst of another bear market in some cases, a gargantuan, brutal bear market of so many names, we've done it again because of strict rules, strict discipline, a study of history precedent in the markets.

Looking at a photo album for familiar faces, understanding the roadmaps of bull and bear markets how they work what they look like how they are reacted to and it's still not easy when you're dealing with so much outside whether it's a war a central bank that unimaginable amounts of interference in administration good or bad the weather you know the weather affects things the things that affects things are just but when all is said and done you do know there is one thing you can control

and that is when things go south when things go awry that's spelled a W-R-Y you don't have to lose a crap load of money there's a four-letter word that unfortunately is not said enough. Sell.

What? Sell? I just turned on TV and they said, if you sell now, it'll be a mistake. You'll be selling into a drop. Oh, really? What if they said that about Peloton at 150 and 120 and 90 and 60 and 30 and 20? and 20. It closed at 1290 today as business worsens. What about that?

Because ladies and gentlemen, at the outset of the show today, it's lesson time at the House of Gary. One of the most important lessons we can ever teach you. And normally we'd have to show you it. We would do some sort of webcast. We really don't have to with this. It's the greatest lesson, top 10, but all part of the greatest lessons, I can teach you about the stocks you own that you're probably learning a lot of lessons about right now. And we're doing this lesson for one reason and one reason only because of what we saw today, what we watched today,

with our mouth agape and in amazement what somebody said on financial television today. That was so far from the truth, I believe they thought it was the truth, but its sheer insanity to your fiscal health and well-being. And in its simplistic form, they were asked what makes you sell a stock what gets you out finally and their answer was

and we're not going to mention who we're not going to say man or woman we're not going to say how old how young whether they manage money or not they said when the story changed changed. And all I said to myself, is this person smoking the good weed? What a gargantuan blunder. What a mistake to tell the public. When the story changes, really? It's the father's thing you want to follow. And here is why. In quite the nutshell, once you find out the story is changed, the stock is already down 30, 40, 50%, 50%, if not more. That's how markets work. You know how I tell you how the big portfolio managers have their meetings in the morning with the executives and they're going over what they own and what the returns are?

And they meet with the analysts? Do you think the analysts, when they find out yesterday, that inventory has skyrocketed because demand has dropped, that they're going to yell and scream it out? No, they are going to sell the hell out of it. They did their work and they did it well. It wasn't illegal insider information. They did their job. They did what they call channel checks, and they sell. And do you know how the big institutions sell in size?

quietly. That's what we call about distribution. That's what we call about a process of a top where the stock can't go up anymore and every time it hits a number that somebody's selling and then selling. Then it breaks the first line of support and they sell more. And any bounce, they sell more. What do they do? And they're distributing stock based on they know the story changed. But nobody else does. And then after it goes from 150 down to 90, it is announced by the company, legally, not illegally, well, demand has dropped off. Inventory is picked up. You as an investor, you're screwed. You're supposed to sell when the price changes, when the trajectory of price changes. When up trends turn into downtrends, where volume is heavy on the down days and very light on the up days,

when nine other stocks in the group top out at the same time indicating it may be an industry problem. That's when you sell. I am letting you know. With our arduous studies and not just our studies, other people's studies that we studied, the bad news comes out. typically way down the road. It is not often a leading stock will just gap to the downside off the highs. It happens in time. I was stunned to hear this.

I thought immediately I'm going to tell my peeps. That's not how it works. When Netflix topped out at 701, you didn't hear about the bad news until it was. 508. This is a truism. Upstart. They reported earnings last night up a whopping 177% revenues up 156% year over year. The stock, though, had already gone from 401 bucks down to 77 bucks. And then they warned and dropped another 56% today to 33 and change. Now that is an extreme example. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card.

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Delivery available on qualifying orders. Do not wait for the story to change. Or you're going to be deciding on how much dog food you buy for your dog. Up next. We'll expound. And then today's market wrap. And is there any ports in the storm? This is the one only investors edge.

Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. we manage investors money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy.

If your current approach to investing is not getting you, to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complimentary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-2-5-59. That's 888-4-2-5-9. That's 888-4-22-5-5-9. Investment Advisory Services offered through call-bomb capital management. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to.

Hey, this promise. It's to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. Welcome once again to Investors Edge. 50%.

50% of all NASDAQ stocks are down 50% or more. How many have they said the story has changed? How many? You catch in my drift? The story has changed. You know what happened with a lot of these stocks that are down 50% or more? Their valuation was just a joke at the top of the cycle, and they just came in based on valuation, for starters. So their stories didn't change, but you're still down 50% from the highs.

Any of you like writing down stocks 50%. I actually couldn't believe they said that because really it is simplistic to know that price is everything. The story comes later. And most often it's disaster. When you get into a bare market, it's double disaster. Moral of my story. Watch your stock price and screw everything else. You don't make money off of opinion or story.

You make money off of or lose money off of stock price performance. You know, when GameStop went from, from 20 up to 400. It wasn't based on anything, but you could have made 20 to 400 in a matter of a few weeks. All that mattered was price when the bubbles were kicking. Of course, when the bubble pops, say goodnight. And GameStop is now taking another leg down.

We warned you. MEPA, we warned you when it went to 199 on 328 and 329 because they announced a split. That's only down 52% from that day, six weeks ago. So if you hear anybody saying, oh, I sell when the story changes, you may want to look elsewhere. In the study of bull and bear markets, when the story has changed for the negative, them stocks are way down.

Again, because these magnificent portfolio managers and their analysts who work there, you know what's often travel around the globe to check out what we call channel checks. What is going on? Hey, what's going on in China? How much Apple iPhones are they selling? Are they selling?

What kind of margin is there? are they buying the services too? You know, just, what was it, four weeks ago we said to you on this show, it wasn't anything we knew, we found out that three Dell, Ulet Packin and Lenovo, biggest PC makers, while we've had supply constraints, their supplies skyrocket 44%. What does that mean? Well, it's got to mean demand is fall.

falling off, a ledge. What's happened with these stocks in the last three or four weeks? Oh, that's right. Let me think. The NASDAQ just from 14-6 to 11-7. What does the NASDAQ contain? Technology stocks. Hmm. You know, I have not seen anybody else report that 44% jump in supply. Interesting. And we happen to get that from a very, what I consider to be very credible newsletter person who is big technology. I repeat, because I have a feeling I know what a lot of you are going through right now. For the future, price first, everything else is noise. And when we do our webcast and we teach you what exactly stocks look like, like when they top and go into a bearish phase of unknown price and time. We're dead serious about it.

And when we tell you, everything is topping at once, we're dead serious about it. You know, just like two weeks ago, we started telling you a bunch of the commodity stocks were topping not everything we said, but a bunch. Guess what? Now most all have followed suit. a potential real top of commodity stocks and that includes gold yesterday potentially potentially because they're right off the highs the oils so you've got this little one plus one equals two commodities may be topping here based on price which means you know what i have to think about

now while everybody's talking inflation if commodity prices are coming down that's less less inflation. That's something we have to start considering. We're not saying a big top is in. We're just saying that they're under pressure now. And I will report to you at the close today, oil prices finished below the 50-day moving average for the first time since late December. About 10 days ago, it broke, but finished back above. If oil prices have topped here, if We have to go to the next part of the equation. Well, if oil tops and gets going to the downside, doesn't that help what? Everything else?

Well, it certainly will help the airlines. It will certainly help the cruise lines. You think, interest rates starting to come down. What can that do? Same thing. So as we said early in the show, are there any, you know, things that potential? here? Well, it's those two things. Now, they're commodities and they're really

tough to gauge and you got all this noise out of this, that, and the other thing, and you got Russia and in Ukraine and you don't know what's going to happen. All I can tell you with the close today, oil prices below the 50 day, that's a start, and yields are backing up a little, but that's off of an Eiffel Tower move. Up next, we'll expound again.

I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge, is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker, the platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need,

explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com.

Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits. you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card.

What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. You're listening to. America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here.

He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. And welcome once again to Investor's Edge. So I hope you catch a little bit of the drift that we're explaining to you here. And notice how we segueed into, well, just letting you know. And we'll see what happens.

A wicked day today. and we are watching and very focused on oil prices and yields. Simple as that. Because we believe in what we call intermarket work. Well, if oil prices go up, what should happen? If oil prices come down, what should happen? What is it saying? You know, we have to start gauging our commodity price is coming down

because we're going to a real contraction. Well, that's not good news. they'd still be elevated but that would not be good news or maybe they just had enough of the upside what has me between and betwixt today is one would think

with oil prices down today yields down today that retail stocks would be strong a bunch of them got crushed today huh housing stocks wouldn't that do better today? Nope yonked hmm

what about financials smacked we'll just keep an eye on it we'll report to you a wicked day today keep in mind coming into today stunningly and amazingly the NASDAQ in 13 trading days just in 13 trading days down 15% forget from the start of March 29th which is what, six weeks ago? It's down like 21%. And of course, the highs were back in November. The Dow, just in the last 13 trading days, has gone from 13492 to a close today at 32-1-60. Wow. And it was down to 319 today before bouncing, but of course it was up 500 early today. So just a weird, wicked, random day. And as we always tell you when You get loose away from the norm either on the upside or downside.

You start to get wicked, wippy, random action. Oh, you got that today. The Dow was up 500 at one time today, early. It was also down about 350, 800 and some odd point back and forth today before finishing down 85 points. Wow, huh? The NASDAQ today finished up 100 and 4. 14, good, we'll take any upday. At one time today, it was up 321. At another time today,

at the most it was down today was only 737, 60. But just leave no doubt, they've already been wickedly blasted over the last just 13 trading days, not to mention. what happened before that so bounces can happen any time they'll be random what I'm watching more will be these oil prices and these yields and we'll see if they behave or not I don't know but weirdness today was I would expect it a little bit better out of the retail out of the housing out of the financials and that did not happen so the market wrap is brought to you by investment dash models That's Jim Moraback, one of the great market timers.

No gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market with his proprietary indicators. Go check it out. Investment dash models.com. By the way, and sometimes you don't even need to wait for any stories. Rivian, we told you when it was 170, yeah, it's probably worth 20. It's down to 22 and change. By the way, we said that flippantly. It was more or less trying to explain to you. This thing is not even close to where it's trading.

And that's Wall Street. just screwing you. And then again, you can't blame Wall Street their jobs to get their best price for their client, which was Rivian. Your job is to measure it. What? A company has no sales, but it has the market cap of GM and Ford that has $260 billion in sales. Sell!

Ford even sold. They own a big piece of it, 8 million shares of it today. Got to learn lessons out of every bearish phase. one of the lessons we have told you we didn't invent it bill o'neill did was in bare markets past leaders on average will drop 70% and nobody wants to believe that and i get why because that 70% is coming from the things that were acting best working the best talked about most well we don't need to go through that list again today we remain stunned as to what they have done and it's just not the names you don't know.

We stand in amazement that Netflix is down 74.7% from November. Facebook is down 48.6%. And we're not going to call it meta. That was just a stupid move on their part. Those are big names. So again, the object of today's show is just to teach some lessons here about price. You got that? The market is a popularity contest.

The measuring stick is price. Not what Joe Blow tells you his opinion is. Analysts are going nuts, downgrading everything in sight after drops. This upstart that has gone from $400 down to $33.61 since I've, October? Let me just read two things to you on Upstart today. This is just today. Of course, I have to find it. Oh, Upstart downgraded to neutral from a buy. Not going to mention the company. Target lowered down to 40. Hey, thanks. Here's another one. Good RX. A name I really don't follow, but is gone from uh uh 64 down to eight today i got four down grades and outperform to an inline what the hell is an in line an outperform to a market perform what's a market perform an outperform to a market perform an outperform to a market perform an outperform to a sector perform everybody lowering their targets after the drop

which by the way was down 41% today I don't need to mention Peloton right price in bear markets the curtains come down and as we told you months ago when the bear market hits you will not get any help from Wall Street we know what you're being told right now you can't sell here what if you miss the upside oh it's It's already down this much. You think you can go any lower? No way. Oh, we've seen this before.

The market always goes back up. I have news for you. A hundred some odd years of history, they're correct on the market. On an individual basis, it couldn't be farther from the truth. And the 70% rule has come into play. While the NASDAQ's only down 27%.

The Dow is only down 13 or 14. The S&P's down 17 or 18. These are the things you must remember. You must learn from these times. Up next. Joe Biden's conference today. Oh, yeah. This is the one only investors ed. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit. than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.

The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need,

explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, Sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well,

more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! Investors Edge with Gary Kaltba. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. And of course, we've been warning you about the coins. Coinbase, we warned about it when it came public and they had it at 4.30 around the first day. Closed today at 73. It's down another 10 bucks in the aftermarket. They only missed estimates by $2.82. Everything down sequentially. Why? You trade coins there and the coins are getting squashed. Robin Hood, the same thing. We warn you about all these things, the meme stocks. And we feel terrible. We take no joy. We hope the meme stocks go up 100 full. from here. We want the people that have lost money to make it all back and more. We have, we, we, we, they've got to learn a lesson where they're doomed to fail going

forward. So coin base just another disaster, just another disaster. And when we warn you about ridiculously price IPOs, all birds. I love those things. That's all I wear is all birds. F-15 IPO, they added at $32 the same day. But they've never made any money. Valuation up in the trees. Not anymore.

It hit 31, closed today at 452. It's at 383 in the aftermarket. Guess what? Downside guidance. You know why? Because everybody's copying. Everybody's making, you know, I see a bunch of different companies doing the same thing.

Again, price, price, most important word in the market dictionary. I promise you. I pinky swear, I double pinky swear. So, by the way, the market wrap is brought to you by Investment-Dashmodels.com, just in case I didn't do it. That's Jim Roarback, one of the great market timers. No gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market with his proprietary indicators. Go check it out.

Investment-dash-models.com. The Dow was down 84. The S&P 9 was up 9. NASDAQ up 114, NASDAQ 100 up 158. Sox up 71, was up 125, 130. And as we said, NASDAQ was up 300 early in the day, then was down 150, finished up 114, could have been better, could have been worse. We'll take anything these days.

But what did the trick? Google was up 38, Nvidia up 6, Microsoft up 5, Netflix up 5, Adobe, up 16. But if you look at the charts of these things, look like the south end of a northbound jacket. and all it is is a bounce. Joe Biden was outlying to the American public today because he thinks you're stupid. He thinks you're a moron. Just like the last guy. Lied to you all the time because he thinks you're stupid and think you're a moron.

That you don't check things out. My favorite thing he's telling us, oh, he lowered the deficits. Better than anybody in years. But he's lying. All that happened is they spent a crap load of money. money on COVID, and now they're not. So guess what has to happen? Duh. So it's an anomaly. It's meaningless. Debt and deficits are still high, but he thinks you're a moron. He thinks you're an idiot. He went on to, and I'm not making this up, he was specifically asked if he takes

any blame for inflation. No, in fact, we helped. No, he said that. know in fact we helped his thought process is we need to tax you more and government spend more so we can give out more and that'll cure inflation by the way i'm not making this up we need to tax the economy more and we need bigger government so we can hand out more and that will cure inflation. You want me to say the third time? He wants to tax the economy more, make government bigger so they can hand out more, and tell the people they hand out to, it's free. Of course, we know nothing is free. That's a load of crap also. What else did he lie about today? Just everything else. And we now found out what the mantra is going to be going into the election.

what's going on with the abortion thing and all that, which will be of import. But he said the acronym MAGA about 15 times in 15 minutes. So it is going to be the socialist party against Trump, even though Trump is not president anymore. That's going to be the story going forward. The bottom line, the biggest problem the president has, whether it's his fault or not. You have 230 million license drivers, maybe 290 million that pass

or fill up in gas stations every day and see those big signs. You got that? That's all you need to know. By the way, I'm just looking at some other names in the aftermarket now. Symbol U hit a high of 210 in November.

It closed today at 48. Just a company that's never made any money. it's down 32% in the aftermarket. Just another one. Remember Roblox? And I told you, my goddorters, they're on the Roblox thing. But they lose money. Stock was $141 in November.

It closed at 23 today. I've got it at 21 the aftermarket. What's that down? 80 some odd percent. Price. Price. I can tell you. you today that dang roblocks their businesses been strong but I'd also have to tell you

today they announced the loss and you know what else they missed on bookings so this is the first time they've missed on bookings the stock has gone from 143 to 21 oh and now the story changed We'll close with that. Lessons, kids. You'll have a great evening drive carefully. We hope you're helping. We hope we're helping. You have a great evening drive carefully.

And when you get home, do like we do, it is quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise because I know. Until tomorrow, have a great evening. I'll be on Charles Payne Show, Fox Business at 2 p.m.

tomorrow and radio show back here same time. Have a good night, everybody. Bye-bye. This has been Investors' Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com.