Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - A CEILING [08.22.2024]

Episode Date: August 22, 2024

https://garykaltbaum.com/

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VALA through 327. Selection varies by location. Raw supplies last. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host day. Thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening. It is August 27th. It's Thursday. Oh, yeah, it's Thursday. It's 2024. Hope you having a good day. If you don't know who we are, this is serious talk on you and everything that affects you. We do the market. the economy your jobs your industry the whole employment situation scams shams corruptions debt deficits the Morlocks in DC immigration elections whatever matters as you know first and foremost the prime thing we do is we guide

you through markets but as we have told you there are so many things now that work their way into markets, that we have to cover them. We never had to talk debt and deficits. We never used to have to talk scams and shams. Open borders like we've never seen, though it's been ongoing for a long time. And what does that mean to your city? We got to cover it now. When I'm reading New York City $5 billion, homeless veterans on the street getting nothing, but people coming here through the border, getting cash cards and food cards, and getting everything paid for, hey, God bless them. We just think it all matters, so we cover it.

And if you not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com. We'll also post it on a Twitter fee, which is now X. And if you don't follow us on Twitter, you should. One day we'll market ourselves. We really don't. and nobody does it for us so I may have to do something about that when we read about others that have

millions of this and that I'm thinking to myself okay go listen to them to see what they have to offer and there's so much full of crapness that's a word crapness and we'll see maybe anyway thanks for joining us

and another day that we have a ton to cover and we will start today with the markets. So let's work our way backwards. We had a meltdown. The semiconductor index dropped 28% from peak to recent trough. The major indices dropped pretty damn good. A few Mondays ago, we had what is known as a volatility,

explosion in the market measured by something called the VIX which is V-I-X it's something we had never seen the way it's occurred and when we say that we have seen volatility explosions before we had one big one in 08 during the financial crisis we had one during COVID those took months to work off this one It took a couple of weeks. But when, imagine drawing a V. Draw a V. Imagine, though, on the right side of that V, not everything does the full V. In fact, some things hardly moved off the low, some things a little bit off the low,

some things halfway off the low. What are these? What do they mean? Well, it's simple. Those are less of a relative strength. Those are ones that went all the way. We're talking price here. And as we said to you, we said it to you yesterday.

We said it to you the day before. And we always say to you going into the next day, we have no clue what the market's going to do the next day. We don't pretend to know that. But we told you markets were the opposite of what we saw a few Mondays ago. Markets are stretched, extended, overbought to the upside, with a big dose of bullishness. there were so many bears that the lows couldn't find any in the last couple of days just with talking sentiment here we mentioned to you something else called the put call ratio which we don't talk about often unless it goes to the extremes this is option players betting on the upside or downside of markets and when it goes to extremes it usually is very close to a change of complexion if everybody's buying it's buying it's

putting betting on lower prices and it goes to extreme typically the markets will turn up not pinpoint it could be the day after three days after five

well in the last few days the amount of puts people betting on the downside drop to nothing and when I use the word nothing it doesn't mean nothing it just means very

low and everybody's betting on the upside after a rally. We have also stated the all-important semiconductors. We don't pull punches on the semis. We still think it's the most important group of the market. They didn't rally up all the way. They rallied up as a whole halfway. But then when you look underneath the surface, the semis have been very much focused on by a few names. A few names really moving the needle. You know when seven stocks in the NASDAQ 100 or 50% of the NASDAQ 100, that's what you mean by that. So every day we come in, we look for changes. We look for what's changing.

We try to look for why it's changing, though we pretty much just give a crap about the actual reaction. We know Jay Powell is speaking tomorrow. We could care less, though we're being told last year the market was up nicely. Two years ago, the market was down. 2.6% on something he said, whatever. Whatever. What we do know at the end of the day today, it's easiest to isolate strength when the market weakens and it's easiest to see weakness when the market has its first decent day down. And you know where we saw the weakness today?

on a decent day down, the names that only went up a quarter of the way, half the way, in this rally. And it's a lot of the semis. It's some of the big tech, among some other stuff.

Tomorrow will be another day. When the market gets a little bit of trouble, what do we tell you holds up best? Dow? Because the money flows into, the most liquid, boring, don't move a lot, stocks. The Dow was only down 177 today. The NASDAQ was down 299.

NASDAQ 100 down 333. That's what we kind of sort of mean. Rough day today. It was overdue. It was overdue. V shapes? typically once they get at or near need to maybe spend some time

but now we have to gauge we have to simply gauge does it really get rough why there's a lot of crap going on out there kids there's some real wild action not only in the market but economic numbers one day everything's good the economy

The next day, everything's not so good. As we tell you here, what have we been saying to for years about government statistics? Be wary of them. They dropped 818,000 jobs off the last year's government statistics. And that's supposed to instill confidence by us. The Labor Secretary was interviewed yesterday. When queried about the 818,000, she claimed it was a lie by Donald Trump. The interviewer had a random act of journalism and came out and said, no, that's from your own labor department.

The labor secretary said she didn't know anything about it. Feel better now? Up next, more on these markets. The convention. The election. more. This is the one only Investors' Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets

that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complimentary portfolio review.

The number to call is 888-4-2-5-59. That's 8-8-5-59. That's 888-4-22-55-59. Investment Advisory Services offered through Colbaum Capital Management Guys, it's no use putting it off.

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closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process, You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen.

Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells. working you're listening to hey this promises to be fun investors edge the last bastion of quality programming with gary cult bomb it doesn't get better than this so rough day today I don't want to micromanage it too much pull back some selling some distribution we don't mind it

in that we're going to be able to isolate. And there were differing things going on today. Some of the big banks were green while the market got trashed. Insurance was green as they're just charging left and right. Little jello moving on the plate. But it gives me a chance. It simply gives me a chance, as we've said, isolate. And if we are going higher, listen carefully.

because you may get all depressed. Oh, we drop big today. And if we're going higher, we need to settle down. We need to form some range-bound action here. Need to, and I said this on TV today, wipe the smiles off some faces. That's what markets do. Before that Monday, when we reversed, how was everybody feeling? been feeling better recently, huh?

Getting more comfortable, getting comfy. Pundits left and right have been going on and telling you how much higher we're going this year. When the market was crashing, we weren't hearing much of that. So price moves words and thoughts and emotions. Us, we let the market be our guide. If we can stay in lockstep, we're good. If we could get one step ahead, we're better.

And what we do best is able to see setups and able to see where the big strength in the market is. And of course, when wrong, we're wrong fast and wrong small. And when right, we try to. I always got to say it this way. We try to let them run. But it's very tough to hold long term right now. And anybody tells you to hold long term individual stocks right now

They're just full of crap. We can give you a laundry list from 21 that are still down 50, 60%. And don't get me started on some that are worse. And don't get me started on Citigroup that's still down 90% from 2008. Did you know that? Citigroup is down 90% from 2008. That's a 90. reason why just so you know they were really going out of business they were saved but they

had to recapitalize and uh they had to just blow the whole thing up killed the bondholders if memory serves me right so 90 percent so stay tuned we're on it as i speak i'm scanning i'm scanning less than thrilled with some of the things. The cream will rise to the top. The crap will sink to the bottom. So be careful. And think. We just want you to think.

Do the electric vehicle companies have strong demand? When I read to you that Ford is dropping, building a plant for electric vehicles and is losing God only knows amounts on each one because of demand. When Hertz tells you no more electric vehicles. Do you want to own electric vehicle companies? Hell no. Eli Lilly, they got this drug. People are taking it left and right. They may have other versions. The talk of taking a pill. The talk that it's really helping with diabetes. and of course, if you weigh 100 pounds less,

it's certainly going to help you with diabetes. Guess what Eli Lilly's stock has been doing. On the other end, guess what Tesla's stock been doing? And I know Elon Musk is one of the smartest people on Earth. Brilliant. But if nobody wants to buy electric vehicles, that'll be a problem for the stock. That's all.

Starbucks. Until an activist came in and a new. CEO, the stock was in a huge bear market. And we'll see what happens from here. Why? Demand. And before anybody told you about the lack of demand at Starbucks, we were telling you about it. Because we have been going to Starbucks every day forever. By the way, today's the fourth day in a row. No Starbucks for me, as I told you, my last month was $340. And I said, no, I'm going to save $340 and just lay off of it. I don't need the espresso, and if I want a reduced fat turkey bacon sandwich, I can make it myself at home.

And a lot of other people are thinking the same way. So that's how we put little pieces of the puzzle together. And then I got help from you guys. We get emails all the time from you guys out there and gals, about the industry you're in, about the business you're in, what's happening in your city. strength, weakness, and all that fun stuff. No insider trading off of it. We would never do that.

Nobody's in what I would call a control position. And that's that. So tonight will be an interesting scan. Definitely went a little defensive today. Definitely went a little low beta today. And definitely some suspect action in things like Tesla. And Microsoft. names that have only come up a little bit ways in this rally.

Yes, Microsoft. Really, Microsoft? Yeah, the stock acts terribly. And the first day down drops $8. And we'll show them tonight in our next webcast to the peeps. And again, tomorrow's another day. I have to tell you also on a personal note, the other thing I'm working on right now, man, to try and get, I need a home health care person with a pretty decent medical background.

I don't know about 24-7 for my parents, but a decent amount of time. Wow. I contacted one. I ended up with eight phone calls from eight different places. And the cost? Holy crap. So I'm in the midst of trying to figure that out right now, too. I have to tell you my parents being 92-91 is a blessing.

But when they lose a lot of their, what's the word I'm looking for? Strength, ability, it's tough. And I see it in their faces, in their voices, the frustration. And we as sons and daughters just try to do the best we can. Up next, more in the markets, the convention. Oh, we'll be making fun of some people. I'm Gary. This is the one and only investors, Ed. Guys, it's no use putting it off.

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Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.

The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Sprecker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives,

and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousins swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it.

You're listening to America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him.

And welcome once again to Investor's Edge. We had an email from one person wanted me to explain more. what I mean by Jay Powell cannot affect the economy because all they keep hearing is Jay Powell and the Fed stating how they've been able to engineer a soft landing in the economy because they have very big great fruits and think they are God. So let me explain. all the talk recently and unfortunately there's a lot of it is what's jay powell gonna say tomorrow at jackson hole it's this confab what a bunch of mucky mucks get together it's like an annual speech and the worry is or the hope is he says something that's friendly to the market nobody cares about the economy when the talk about j powell speaking they care about how the markets are going to react no really and as i said

I think last year it was up. A couple years back, it was down two point something. Why? Because the inflation that they caused, they had to be tight as hell. No more printing money. So the hope is he says something good tomorrow, whatever. What I want more to talk about is the economy. The thought that one man can engineer a $25 trillion economy, for me, it's a comedy act.

And what's funny is when I get on TV and say, He cannot affect the economy. I think people are perplexed because they're used to hearing, yeah, what they do. And what I just say is, how can one man moving an interest rate a quarter point here or a quarter point there down or up, or even a half point down or up, or a three-quarters of point down or up, affect the economy? Well, it can move things around a little bit in that the cost of things. but no and here's why the most important interest rate is not what j powell does

he handles something called fed funds and if you look it up it'll describe for you that it's these are the funds that banks loan to each other and give to each other and deposit with each other and all that but it kind of sort of also defines how the fed also feels about what they call monetary policy are they easier they tight typically for markets tights bad easy is good and the reason why they had a tighten is because of

inflation the reason why they can let go of the tightening is because the rate of inflation's way down but by the way talk about shrinkflation i got ruffles here you know ruffles average and publics today offered two for one four dollars and sixty nine cents a bag but you get two for one and that's good you know because you really don't want to pay 469 anymore for one of these bags but i have to tell you there's another gimmie going on and shrinkflation not only the size of the bags but they drop the amount of chips in the bag you know how i know it's easy to know open up the bag and see it sink to the bottom and there's hardly any in there And by the way, I don't eat potato chips.

I buy them to see exactly what's going on. So Jay Powell is it right now on the Fed funds. Notice how I segue to Ruffles, huh? So Jay Powell, five and a quarter, dash five and a half. They always have a dash. There's a little low end and a high end. And of course, the average is in between. The 10-year yield, that is completely.

tied to your mortgages, the 10-year yield, was up today.84 to 3.862. So before today, it was 3.78 something. So the 10-year yield is at 3.86. He's at 5 and a quarter. They call that way behind the curve. He was way behind the curve on the upside, staying at zero while interest rates skyrocketed because of inflation. And now he's the other way. And the worry has been is there going to be repercussions from him being way behind the curve. Well, so far really doesn't look like it's happened. You never know. And leave no doubt he will be lowering rates at the September meeting.

And this talk of whether he's going to do a quarter. but that'll only take him to 5-5 in a quarter or a half which will take him 4 and 3 quarters dash 5 but the 10 year is still way down at 3.86 that's what we mean by he doesn't matter to the economy at this juncture at all there are moments he matters when he went to 0% interest rates

and screwed aunt Mary and Uncle Bob on their savings when he printed to $9 trillion causing the inflation Wait, I thought it was the Putin price hike No, J-Powell, wait, I thought it was Biden Oh, it was partly Biden But I give it J-Pow 75 Biden 25

And of course the bigger problem was As inflation skyrocketed, they didn't know it While we were telling you And finally they said it's transitory, don't worry. And we found out that wasn't transitory. And then once they stopped printing and started playing catch-up, then the normalization of inflation coming down has occurred.

And of course, the misery Marxists on the left right now we're blaming gouging, which is just the biggest freaking lie on earth. And that's the J. Powell story. which takes me to the convention. The convention. You see, I love people. I really do on the whole. But what I really hate the most of people,

the elitist, wealthiest, hypocrites on earth that are paraded in front of you to lie to you and to preach to you and to tell you without them your lot in life will never be good and the crap that they make up is beyond the beyond

in this convention they are telling you about the billionaires and the wealthy like they're the antichrist yet they parade Pritzker, who inherited billions from his peeps on the Hyatt hotel chain. They parade in front of you, the Clintons, who are worth a quarter billion dollars. We'll get to them in a second.

They parade in front of you, the Obamas, who have three gargantuan estates. in differing areas around the globe. One in Hawaii. I believe one's in Maine or Massachusetts, wherever. Nancy Pelosi worth a couple hundred million. And they parade them in front of you to tell you that the rich are tax cheats and don't pay enough. I heard the Obama's talk about never wanting a need to be wealth.

and people on Twitter X are posting pictures of their three estates. They're not homes. They look like resorts. You got Bill and Hillary Clinton, and I quote them. Trump, he's all only about me, myself, and I, and he's only in it for himself. They're worth $250 million. They have never produced a product, ever. They've influenced. peddled their way to wealth. Doing gargantuan price speeches to others who would be currying favor with them in hopes that she was going to be the president. Created

a gargantuan foundation where there was one year where they took in like a hundred million and gave out two. Up next. The Convention. This is the one only, investors end. Guys, it's no use putting it off.

The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com, code comfort.

Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.

The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives,

and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Sprinker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com.

Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action In The Gaster's Edge With Gary Kulpah

The Convention So I don't know this waltz guy From anything But he's a liar There are direct lies If I said to you right now That I am 6 foot 5 I would be lying to you

It's a direct lie There were direct lies about his military, amongst other things. And I'm simply thinking to myself, if this was the other side, they'd be called lies, but now they're misstatements. And the media is saying he's corrected his misstatements on his websites.

Terrific. Another example of the levels that are out there. The one thing I heard most, they're the party of joy and freedom, and they want unity in this country. While they are out there talking unity, they're ripping the stuffings out of others, billionaires or tax cheats. though they gladly go to the house of Stephen Spielberg or Jeffrey Katzenberg and get tens of millions of dollars of donations from billionaires. Hypocrisy. You know, when we get noticed,

when John Kerry tells us what we must do to conserve and he gets on a private jet that takes him to his yacht and then tells us he's got a private jet, because he's working for us. This is what we mean. I heard them say freedom, the party of freedom.

This is this party. I can't begin to tell you how many times. The party of freedom. And by the way, as I have said, I've just gotten videos. I couldn't spend three minutes listening to Bill Clinton. but I get video after video,

the party of freedom. Yet all they say, listen carefully. If you're too successful, you are not paying enough taxes, pay us more to the government. The party of freedom. If you make too much,

we're calling you a tax cheat. The party of freedom. Many of them, not all, are into these judges that are letting crooks out, as I mentioned to yesterday without bail, who shot somebody? The party of your freedom. Part of freedom is be able to walk the streets,

not have to worry about beating the crap out of you. The party of freedom. The open borders, where they are paying people that came here illegally, I'm sorry, it's called illegal, legally, paying them all kinds of money and housing while letting homeless veterans on the street die. Party of freedom.

The amount of rules and regulations they have foisted upon us under Biden Harris the last three and a half years. The party of freedom. They want to raise long-term. capital gains, unrealized capital gains, a wealth tax, a party of freedom. They take taxpayer dollars and dole them out to whoever they choose. The party of freedom. They didn't say a freaking word when a bunch of sickos were preventing Jewish college students

from going into their dorms. The party of freedom. The Afghani women have been sent back to the dark ages by walking out of there and letting the Taliban take over. They're in the dark ages. The party of freedom. If there's anything I can't stand, it's hypocrites, and leave no doubt it's on both sides in a very big way.

but man oh man this party has a special place in my heart for their gargantuan bull crap and their hypocrisy about spending us into oblivion into massive record gargantuan debt and deficits and then coming after us for the money not accounting for a freaking dime their spending whether it's 350 billion handed to John Podesta, a democratic hack for climate, or the billions they spent on charging stations, and so far there are eight. And Pete Buttigieg says, But it's a process. The Party of Freedom.

I'm so sick of them, I can't begin to tell you. By the way, you know how sick I am of the other party losing their way, too. I would run the Party of Freedom. a real party of freedom. I wish I was 10 years younger. I'd be right in there. But I got big fish to fry now with my parents and everything else I do. But I'll keep yapping away.

Kamala Harris speaks tonight. That one I'll be listening to. We'll report back on it tomorrow. That all said, crappy day in the market. Hopefully a better day tomorrow. I have no clue what the kind of day we'll see. we were overdue. Now we'll see what comes of it.

You have a great evening. Drive carefully. When you get home, do like we do. It's quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better.

Hug your parents, especially if they're 92 and 91. I'll be on with Neil Cavuto tomorrow, noon hour. Don't miss that. Fox Business Network. And same time tomorrow for the show. Have a great one, everybody. Peace out. Thanks for joining.

Good night. This has been Investors' Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryKK.com. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands,

and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card.

Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.