Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - A Crappy End To Week In Review

Episode Date: October 7, 2022

Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com

At CVS, it matters that we're not just in your community, but that we're part of it. It matters that we're here for you when you need us, day or night, and we want everyone to feel welcomed and rewarded. It matters that CBS is here to fill your prescriptions and here to fill your craving for a tasty and, yeah, healthy snack. At CBS, we're proud to serve your community because we believe where you get your medicine matters. So visit us at cbs.com or just come by store. We can't wait to meet you. Store hours vary by location. Investors Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum,

your host. A thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you're listening. It is Friday, October 7, 2020. And this remains the most important radio show slash podcast or whatever you want to call it in the country on you, your capital, the economy, the markets. Because very simply, if you had just followed our lead, you are not paying a very stiff price of what you are seeing going on right now. And we mean that. We don't even rate in the podcast world.

We'll figure it out one day how to market this baby. But for those that are paying attention and we're getting the amount of emails we're now getting on a daily basis gargantuan. I got people who want to take me dinner and all kinds of stuff. Very simply, this is all come from. Listen carefully. The study of.

and bare markets, the studies of bubbles and bus, the study of psychology, the study of fear and greed, the thousands of hours put into this, knowing there is definitively a roadmap of bull and bare markets, how they top, how they bottom, how they rally, how they drop, the process, the roadmap, the reactions. We've told you all along, before the market even topped, when we thought it. was going to start topping, what was our number one line? Just remember in bare markets, you will get no help from Wall Street. And again, they have done their job of giving you absolutely no help. The same crap. Don't worry, everything's okay. It'll come back. It's just

the correction. Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. As we told you, it's not even a indictment. It's who they are. Wall Street is a fully invested vehicle come hell or high water. You can be down 50% in your account. They're going to tell you, don't worry, it'll come back. While you're down 50% you can't sleep at night. That's why it's incumbent upon you. You. It's your money. And by the way, a little thought process. If somebody bought you a stock at 100 and it's now 30, they're probably not the person to ask their opinion anymore on it. So we're going to continue to double the effort and triple the effort. Do you know why? Let me tell you the other part of the equation that we do do definitively know. The first year out of the bear market into a new bull market is a

gargantuan year. The only thing we don't know is when this ends or where it ends, oh, but we are going to be ready. And I know what people are telling you, nobody can call the bottom of the market. Nobody can do this. I got news for you. We're going to try. And you know where that's going to come from the thousands of hours of study of bulls and bear markets and what they look like and how they act and what leadership looks like jumping out of the bear market and as we've told you what ends up happening in the final throws of the bear market the bear market will still go down the indices will still go down people are still crapping in their pants and we'll find five to ten names where their earnings are up 80 percent their revenues are up 120 percent whatever they're selling

there's lines around the block for their product or service, and they stop going down, and they start rallying up while the market's going down, and we're thinking to ourselves, wait a minute, that looks like so-and-so from the last bottom of the bare market, and the other one, and the other one, the other one, because what we're doing here is looking at a photo album for familiar faces, and unfortunately we're not there yet.

And as we've said to you time and time again, we've given you out names on the show, this one's holding up, that one's holding up, this one's holding up, That one's holding up, but in bare markets eventually get them all. That's how it works. Guess what they got in the last week? They got the solars. Solars were acting great.

They got the solars. And anything else that was sticking up, they got them. Remember, we were talking about waste management stocks, you know, the ones that pick up your garbage. They basically crashed in the last two weeks. People have been telling you how utilities are defensive. They're down over 20% in three weeks. from the highs and now

a hook something we couldn't even predict because remember sometimes news comes out of nowhere and will affect things sometimes good sometimes bad what's the latest OPEC

you see when you have an administration that now is kissing the ass of the piece of crap criminal scum bag running Venezuela to get oil from them instead of getting it from us and being independent, not have to worry about everybody else. OPEC is lowering production by 2 million barrels. And guess what's happening? I don't know if you know this. The price of crude has gone from

$76 to $92 in the last nine days. Do you know what that means the gas of the pump in the next week or so? And you know, the gas at the pump goes up quicker than it comes down. you can have a major move there and guess what that is. That is a huge expense to the consumer, to business, to everybody, to every product that's made with petroleum.

So there's another hook on top of everything else. And we know we had this 1,600 point move on Monday and Tuesday and what did we tell you? Be careful. Why did we say that? Because perspective,

well, everybody's yay, 1,600 points, bottoms in, bottoms in, bottoms in. We're telling you, wait a minute, the only reason we're up 1,600 points We just dropped 3,800 points in 14 trading days. Perspective. And what did we also warn you about, that we've been worried about?

What did we tell you five months ago on this show? That we got the news from a pretty smart area that the three top PC makers, Eulet Packard Delin Lenovo, their inventory skyrocketed. what's the reason why inventory skyrocket? A, because the company screwed up, they thought something and did not happen, but B, demand falls off a cliff. Advanced Micro Devices reports a billion dollar shortfall. And what are they blaming it on?

PCs! So here's us, little old me, telling you months ago, I think it was four to five months ago. And by the way, Del and Eulet Packard stock has been trashed since. AMD down $9.5.5 to $58 and change today. And that was after it was already down like 50-some-odd percent. So we'll give out the final numbers here. We just want to start and let you know. And listen carefully.

We are going to work our tails off. I don't know if we can work any harder or longer than we already are. But we are going to work our tails off. because as stated, lives can be changed in the first year of a new bull market. Now, we're in hopes a lot of you have listened and have been out

and not getting, you know, with the word I'm looking for. I keep getting asked. I get people now that are down a lot. What should I do? And my answer is, I don't know. We're no man's land now. So far down, so many things down.

But the most important part of our equation now, I mean, we pass the test again. We are determined to find those big leading names coming out of this. Unfortunately, we think there's more to go. And during this show, we're going to be very careful with our words on where we think things may go. Tell your friends, tell your family, because we know what everybody else is. saying and you know how you know it's a bear market and a blistering bear market try buying a stock and see where it is three minutes later i heard some people out today we're in a bottoming process the only thing i can think to myself is they're either the biggest BS artists on earth

well they really really really don't have a clue so we're going to give out these crummy numbers in a little bit uh i got some thoughts on certain things, but the most important point I do want to make, we are going to be so ready. We are going to be so ready. But we're not there yet. And now we're in the midst of getting just about everything. Up next. Full market wrap, moves of the day, news of the day, whatever else today.

I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs,

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Investment advisory services offered through call-bomb Capital, management. Hello, hello, I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of the podcast Smart Talks with IBM. I recently sat down with IBM's chairman and CEO, Arvin Krishna, and I asked him, how can companies use AI to its fullest potential to create smarter business? My one advice to them, pick areas you can scale. Don't pick the shiny little toys on the side. For example, if anybody has more than 10,000, 10,000, you can scale. Don't pick the shiny, 10% of what they had for customer service 10 years ago, they're already five years behind. If anybody is not using AI to make their developers who write software 30% more productive today,

with the goal of being 70% more productive. Yeah. Wow. So we are not asking our clients to be the first experiment on it. We say, you can leverage what we did. We're happy to bring out all our learnings, including what needs to change in the process, because the biggest change is not technology, is getting people to accept that there's a different way to do things.

To listen to the full conversation, visit IBM.com slash smart talks. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion.

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the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. All right.

Um, The Mets play tonight at home against San Diego. I didn't even realize this. It's two out of three, and they play all three games at City Field. I really should call Shay Stadium. That's weird. It's kind of like unfair, but we'll take it. Unfair is good one.

It's for your team. So let's work ourselves backwards. We told you ages ago that we were really worried that the next bear market was going to be a big bear market. market because of the bubbles created by these ass clowns at the central bank. They took rates down to zero and screwed you every one of you. And then they printed $9 trillion up to $9 trillion. Didn't start at zero. Got Europe to do it.

Japan and China are already doing it. And we just simply told you, oh, there's going to be a big drop. How did we know this? go read the book Extraordinary popular delusions in the madness of crowds We then warned you about all the bubbles beforehand The short squeezed meme stocks By the way, did I tell you Bed Bath and Beyond closed

$5.40 today? Nobody's screaming on the chat boards anymore for that AMC Single digits I don't need to go further on those. We warned you about the SPACs, the marijuana stocks, which got crushed today, by the way, after bouncing up because whatever the president did to buy votes yesterday. The no sales companies, the hunks of junk that we called them, the companies that will never sell an electric vehicle

that said they would. The battery companies, the solar cells, on and on. And they've all, The coins. Do you know the day Coinbase came public? It closed at $342.42. And we told you, you know, we said to you, we never do this. We said in the bare market, this thing's $30. And probably ends up single digits. We said that because we thought the coins were a bubble. And in case you don't know, we also said about the coins that 90% of them would drop 90% or more, with most going to zero. And we didn't even know that a bunch of con artists brought out 20,000 coins because they wanted to be the next dogy coin. Remember that one? Dogey coin. Somebody came up with it as a lark and still the maniacs took it from nothing to 70 cents. It's still at six. That thing is a zero.

and all the coin companies have been destroyed and a bunch of coin stocks have been destroyed and a bunch of exchanges have been destroyed and people lost all their money overnight in something called a stable coin. None of it's backed by anything. Obviously they weren't listening to the show anybody who lost

but our real big worry wasn't just that was just we were worried about a real bust of everything housing NASDAQ types and guess what housing's doing now guess what NASDAQ has been doing and they finally got the big guys and I want to say this carefully the NASDAQ at the close today the high was 16212 16212 It closed today at 10639. It's down 34.3% from the highs. We told you when it was down 25%, that the average stock was down 35 to 40,

and all they need to do is get the big guys. You know the big guys. If these lows of June and the last week get taken out, I think we're going to have a 50. And now it's not just psychology and leverage and too many people owning. It's the fundamentals. Oh, we already knew that months ago, we told you. But now they're becoming apparent.

Billion dollar miss by AMD. A billion dollar miss by AMD. Nike. A gargantuan miss. Gargantuan. FedEx, Gargantuan, Target, Walmart. You think these are fly-by-nights? We haven't even entered earnings season.

It's going to be an interesting next two to three weeks. We don't like giving targets. We don't like saying the Dow is going to be so-and-so. We're just extrapolating bus, B-U-S-T-S, and if the NASDAQ breaks the lows here, which may just happen, I wouldn't be surprised to see a 50. We're 34 already, and now oil prices. So today's really gross market wrap is brought to you by Investment-Models.com. That's Jim Roarbeck, one of the great market timers.

No gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market. It's proprietary indicators. Go check it out. Investment-mottles.com, 630 on the Dow. 104 on the S&P, 420 on the NASDAQ, 446 on the NASDAQ, 152 on the semiconductors that were trying so hard to hold up yesterday. But the AMD news was horrible. Transports 361. I'll finish it up in a second.

I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. Hello, hello. I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of the podcast Smart Talks with IBM. I recently sat down with IBM's chairman and CEO, Arvin Krishna. And I asked him, how can companies use AI to its fullest potential to create smarter business? My one advice to them, pick areas you can scale. Don't pick the shiny little toys on the side.

For example. If anybody has more than 10% of what they had for customer service 10 years ago, they're already five years behind it. If anybody is not using AI to make their developers who write software 30% more productive today, with the goal of being 70% more productive. Yeah. Wow. So we are not asking our clients to be the first experiment on it.

We say, you can leverage what we did. We're happy to bring out all our learnings, including what needs to change in the process, because the biggest change is not technology. It's getting people to accept that there's a different way to do things. To listen to the full conversation, visit IBM.com slash smarttalks. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion,

our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU. APUS.edu.edu. Today, we're exploring deep in the North American wilderness among nature's wildest plants, animals, and cows? Uh, you're actually on an organic valley dairy farm, where nutritious, delicious organic food gets at start. But there's so much nature.

Exactly. Organic Valley's small family farms protect the land and the plants and animals that call it home. Extraordinary. Sure is. Organic Valley. Protecting. where your food comes from. Learn more about their delicious dairy at ov.c oop.

We're listening to America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. So, so a big pickup in new lows today. Advanced declines were gross.

Oil prices, four bucks on crude. Oil stocks couldn't even hold up because they're still stocks. I got a few defense stocks up because now there's worry about nuclear. The president said something he shouldn't have said yesterday. And just a miserable day. AMD down 970 to 58 bucks. Microsoft down 12 to 234, NVIDE. are down 11 to 120.

These were everybody's favorite names, by the way. Adobe down 10, Tesla down 15. That's no longer hanging in there. Remember what we were saying for a while, Tesla is about the only thing hanging in there. And guess what happened? They missed deliveries and then the Twitter thing. Apple down five and a half.

That's only 16 times five. $80 billion a loss of market cap. Netflix that was trying up down 50. Yikes. And then there were names that were holding up. Not anymore. I don't need to go through those names. Transports down 361. So we're just letting you know miserable end. That 1600 point was a outcome of 3,779 points in 14 days, and that's all it was. The NASDAQ is already back near. the lows of last week. S&P getting there has a little more room. The Dow getting there. If that was the best the market can do on a rally,

those two days, not such good news. And in our rules of the road, one of our mantras in bear markets is eventually they get them all. They were getting a lot of things that were holding up today. If you were holding up, they were getting you today. Simple as that. Really did not matter.

What do they say? No stone left unturned. And what this simply is is a repricing of assets and corporate America based on higher interest rates, which by the way went up again today, and higher oil prices, which has been skyrocketing the last few days. 76 to 92 in nine days. Now we had an unemployment number today. We're down at 3.5%.

I want you to listen to me carefully. Get out a pen. Get out a pad. Write down this way. word, Gary, second word, says five to seven percent unemployment, end of the first quarter. Now, we're being asked, well, wouldn't that be good? Because then the Fed can lay off. I don't think the Fed has much control anymore than anything. They had control when they printed up to nine trillion, but that was to just create bubbles. They were never really in control because there was

always going to be the downside of making the markets addicted, but we'll continue to just take it day by day, inch by inch, step by step, stock by stock, sector by sector, index by index, country by country, market by market, on a daily basis, with a lot of focus, sweat, toil, time. Simple as that. But just a very roughed up day today. I that's the only way I can describe it and again not a lot of stones left unturned and they're getting boring stuff they're getting food stock they're getting staples and utilities and reits things that are supposed to hold up I saw somebody on TV they say I'm very defensive I own utilities I'm like you own utilities you're down 20% in the last two weeks the XLU make it three and a half weeks the XLU is down 20% in one, two, two and a half, it's called three weeks. Utilities. Stay tuned, kitties.

It's getting interesting. And may I state more and more people are paying attention to moi, but still plenty make fun. Eh, you can't call bottoms and tops. Nobody can do it. Blah, blah, blah. Okay. You keep doing what you're doing. We'll keep doing what we're doing.

And wherever the twains shall meet. I don't know if I have much more I can tell you. Oil stocks did an outlier move straight down, straight up. I don't know what to make of it, but of course oil prices have moved up markedly. The illogical of our administration going to a crook, a murderer, the worst type in Venezuela to get oil from him, instead of getting, oil from us. You know there's an estimate 270 billion barrels of oil in the United States to be tapped? 70 billion under the Permian basin? I'm not making this up. We're going to Venezuela.

It's stunning. It's stunning. You know, I'm just a logical guy. And I'm thinking to myself, I don't care if you're the left or the right. Why would you have a vote? for the illogical. Then again, that's both sides of the aisle. Think about it. Think about it. We have everything we need. Excuse me, I was off.

Only 260 billion barrels estimated here in the United States. And of course, you can't get it out quickly. It takes a while. But if you send the message, we're going to get it. But no, we're going to put up windmills and electric vehicles. Oh, which by the way, uses a lot of energy. I think we have morons running the country. Nah, I know we have morons running the country.

And there's many people that think they're doing it on purpose. I try not to believe that. It's getting tough not to believe it. Within seven days, ten days, price at the pump going to be up 25 to 40 cents from where they are today, which is up from the last couple of weeks, just letting you know. I wish I had better news. Of course, oil prices are fluid.

That can change. I'm just saying if nothing changes, that be the deal. And now we await earnings. And some of these earnings reports do not make one happy. I'd say the only good news? There hasn't been a lot of warnings. Then again, you don't need a lot of warnings. Next week, a bunch of financial companies.

City Group J.P. Morgan, Morgan Stanley, PNC. Bank, U.S. Bank, Wells Fargo. Black Rock next week. And a few others. You got Pepsi. Delta Airlines. Domino's Pizza. I'm flying Delta tonight, by the way.

Fassanel, Progressive Insurance, Taiwan Semiconductor, Walgreens. I get all my drugs there. And United Health, a very important Dow stock. That was down 14 bucks today. up next. We'll do the week in review and it's going to sound okay, but it really isn't.

This is the one only Investor's Edge. Hello, I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of Smart Talks with IBM. I recently spoke with IBM's new director of research, Jake Gambata. We discussed his vision for the future of quantum computing.

At IBM research, what we always do is answer what is the future of computing, whether it's coming up with new algorithms, coming up with better AI, coming up with quantum, or coming up with just how do different accelerators go together? It's our DNA to answer the question of what is the future. Isn't it a perfect problem for IBM because you kind of need to have a legacy of building stuff?

Yes. Building actual physical machines. Yeah, it's why I came to IBM. I wanted the experience, the culture of building hard things that others have not done before. Where do you imagine we are in the timeline of this technology? There will come a point when it will mature. Right?

Yeah. My cell phone is a mature technology at this point. How far are we from that point with Conton? By 2029, we'll build the first fault-tolerant quantum computer. That is one that can run a very, very large, large problem. To learn how IBM is building the future of computing, visit IBM.com slash quantum. Success starts with your drive,

and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.

What do this animal And this animal And this animal? Have in common? They all live on an organic valley farm. Organic valley dairy comes from small organic family farms That protect the land and the plants and animals that live on it From toxic pesticides, which leads to a thriving ecosystem

And delicious, nutritious milk and cheese. Learn more at ovi.coop and taste the difference. You're listening to What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! In the Gester's Edge.

With Gary Culper. Well, if the week ended on Tuesday, it would have been a really good week. The doubt still finished up 2% this week, even though it dropped 630. That's how good the first two days were. Up 593 points. The S&P 500 finished up 1.5% this week.

The NASDAQ only three quarters of a percent. And the NASDAQ high this week was 11230, 580 points higher, 5% from the highs this week. A lot of it today. NASDAQ today was down. 3.8. But then you got AMD down 8%.

Tesla down 16% this week. Not very good. Which segues me to Twitter. I don't know what the hell's going to happen there. The rumor came out and the deal's getting done and now we're finding out people don't want to pony up the money.

and you know why. Remember what we said? If you're paying $54 for Twitter, you're paying $2 for a dollar bill. I don't think the stock's worth even $27. Sales last four quarters for Twitter, $37, 22, $16, minus one. That's year-over-year sales. That's how it's measured. Earnings.

A loss of $0.54. $0.33-cent profit. 90 cent profit and then a loss of 8 cents you know what that is quite the inconsistent and i'm not so sure what you can do with twitter if you bought him i know you bring trump back on what be you know terrific what else you're going to do with it not so i don't know he's a brilliant man Elon must maybe he could come up with something well i know it's the weirdest thing i've ever seen the weirdest thing I've ever seen in buyouts. Maybe the second weirdest.

Anybody remember AOL Time Warner? Nightmarish. I got emails yesterday on Obamacare. You know, I did this deal on the last three president in their debt. And under Obama, well, as we stated to you,

Obamacare was a scam. It was a con. and the media sucks as usual. Remember, they told you we're going to put millions of people with health care. But don't worry, it's not going to cost you anything. Your premiums won't go up. And of course, my premiums are up 170%. Little old me.

They lied. It's impossible. And we knew it from the get-go and the media covered for it. Imagine. Pre-conceived condition, you know, pre-existing conditions? Yeah, we'll cover that. Oh, you don't have it? We'll pay for that.

No. Everybody else will pay for it. Just like the lottery. The lottery, we pay out so-and-so. No, you don't. You're a bookie. The losers pay out. Draft Kings.

Draft Kings doesn't pay out. No, they're bookies. The losers pay out. Guess what? Guess who the losers were on Obamacare? The taxpayer. Now, I also hear from people that say, well, listen, I didn't have health care. It really helped me out and pre-existent.

Good, I'm happy for you. But it still was based on a lie. And Jonathan Gruber is out there on video. Still, we had a lie to the American people in order to get it passed. And the reason we were able to lie to American people, because they were stupid. This was an architect of Obamacare. And do you think the media's ever, ever, ever, ever, ever done one? minute on this creep or Obama on another great con that's what they're good at and now we got

this guy and again when I use the word Marxist I don't use it as a bad word I mean it Marxism is about being a control freak and hamstringing the people by telling them how much they're going to do for you. But in all said and done, they do nothing for you except grow the hell out of government and their power with rules, regulations, fees, fines, mandates, and taxes, and they dole out little bits and pieces to everybody and then lie about the whole thing. It's a Marxist. And I would say it to Joe Biden's face.

I would have no problem. If you ever said, what do you think of me? Well, economically, you're a Marxist. I would say it to his face. I would ask them, tell me one thing you have done that is we the people. No, no, no, not we the government, we the people. Market-based, market-oriented, economically oriented.

Don't tell me about what you're going to give to somebody because you're taking from somebody else. Give me what you're doing about growth. How are you going to grow the economy by now taxing corporations more coming out of a pandemic? Hmm, interesting. So we're in the soup. And now we're hamstrung on oil.

Why? Because he refuses. And don't think for a second the markets aren't shooting the middle finger back at them. They're doing nothing about getting from here. And they're willing to go to murderers to get oil from them. They don't want to produce here. They say it's bad for the environment, but they'll gladly take it from murderers. and by the way, our oil is cleaner and it's cheaper to get from here than to transport it.

So, again, we'll finish with the word, illogical. That said, have a great evening. Have a great weekend. Go Mets. No, really, go Mets. Drive carefully. And when you get home, do like we do, it's quite simple.

make sure you hug your family, make sure you hug your children, they will feel better. You will feel better. I promise until Monday. We'll be on with Charles Payne 2pm, Fox Business Monday, and right back here same time. Bye-bye all. Take care. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com.

That's GaryK.com. Success starts with your drive. and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop.

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