Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - A good down 400
Episode Date: January 17, 2023Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com...
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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum.
Straight talk about you and your money.
Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum.
And welcome once again to Investors Edge.
I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host.
A thanks of being with us today.
Glad you're here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening.
It's January 17, 2000 and 23.
I still can't get over that.
It's 2023.
Hope you had a good three-day weekend.
we're here to talk about you and everything that affects you.
All the important stuff.
You know, your job, the economy.
Them, the Morlocks.
Go look that up.
And everything else in between.
Quite the interesting day to day as we do markets today.
We'll explain in a second.
But first, if you do not get this radio show in your city,
we'll post it at garyk.com.
We'll also post it on my Twitter feed.
If you want to follow me on Twitter, just go to Twitter, put my name in,
or press the button at gary k.com you can email me just be nice that's not hard is it
you just have to be nice okay i really want to get into it because there are certain days that we
have what we can call sore thumbs and what we mean by that is some things stick out
And when some things stick out, we can explain them much easier.
Why?
Because they're sticking out.
And a lot in the last year, the sore thumbs have been gross, have been bad, have been terrible, have been to the downside, have been nauseating the whole works.
Today, the sore thumb is to the good side for a change.
And we're going to tell you that by first stating,
just want to let you know the Dow is down 391 points today.
What?
You're going to talk positive?
Absolutely.
The Dow was down 391 points.
How many times was the Dow down 391 points when we were in the downtrend?
And we're not going to say bull bear market, but we're definitely not necessarily not in
downtrend this second, some areas. Well, plenty of times. And do you know what would happen on that day?
Advanced declines would be a thousand up, 3,000 down. The NASDAQ would be down 150, 200.
Sometimes worse. Remember that. Because what we're always trying to do is look for
sore thumbs, things that stick out that we can have an edge on. An edge means when you turn on
your evening news tonight, they're going to say, market had a bad day. Dow was down 391.
We're going to tell you that the Dow had a bad day. Certain names had a bad day. The rest of the
market was fine. No, really. Because as we start the show,
The Market Wrap is brought to you by Investment-Models.com.
That is Jim Roarback, one of the great market timers.
No great areas with the man.
You're either in or out of the market with proprietary indicators.
Go check it out, investment-mottles.com.
The Dow was down 391.
The equivalent in the S&P of 391 Dow points
would be about 48 S&P points.
The S&P was only down 8.
The equivalent on the NASDAQ of a 391 point drop,
the NASDAQ would have been down 130 today,
just to be the equivalent on a percentage basis.
The NASDAQ was up 15 points today.
Advanced declines, as I explained to you,
we had days where the 1,000 up 3,000 down?
Well, with the Dow down 391.76,
points today. And by the way, that was off the lows, like what five minutes to go, it was
430. Up on the New York today, 2209, down on the New York 1896. What? How can that be?
Well, it be. What you have to remember, the Dow is just 30 stocks. The S&P is 500 stocks. I don't
even know the number on the NASDAQ. We know the NASDAQ 100 is 100 stocks, duh.
That was up 15 today in spite of the Dow.
And it was going on all day.
Now does that mean it lasts?
Is there a sea change?
Is it a one-day wonder?
Beats the heck out of me.
We deal with the evidence at hand.
And all we can tell you today all day,
the relative strength was in,
the NASDAQ. Now why are we thrilled with that? Because it's exactly what we want to see. How many times are we said to you when the NASDAQ was down 200 and the Dow was flat that we'd rather have it the other way around? Well, many times. So we're just repeating it. Dow down 391, but the NASDAQ up 15. NASDAQ 100 up 15. The semiconductors are up six. Advanced declines were positive on both the New York and the NASDAQ today. So with the Dow's down,
down 391. We'll put it in the
okay column.
Unless you had
Goldman Sachs
and travelers
what did the trick
today? Goldman Sachs.
Let me give you a little bit
of history on Goldman
Sachs. They are
famous
for blowing away
their earnings reports
to the upside.
Goldman Sachs, expectations.
in the $7, they come in at $11.50. Today, Goldman Sachs came in at $3.32. The expectations was
five and change. They missed by a mile. And what's funny is, they opened it down 12 today,
and I said to my peeps, wow, those numbers were so bad. I'm surprised it's not down 30 today.
at 120 today after opening up 12
I think it was down about 29
so it got there before it bounced
fine yeah about 29 and change
so that didn't help the Dow
and in case you don't know
every Dow point you times you multiply by 6.78
travelers did not report earnings but they came out
and warned early travelers was
down nine bucks today. And by the way, both had very heavy volume. Travelers broke the 50-day moving
average. It was off the lows of the day, hit a low of 181-36, closed at 184-6, 185, so better.
But they warned. Goldman Sachs, as we stated, was down 29 and changed, finished down 24-10.
Between the two, just so you know, 33 points times 6.78, 223 of the 391 down points.
So they did need some help.
United Health down four and a half, and as we have told you, the managed care stocks are in their own private bear market as the market is rallied up.
JP Morgan that had that big reversal on Friday on their earnings down 220 today that didn't help
Honeywell down four in change break in below the 50 day moving average that didn't help
Home Depot pulls back three in change Boeing Amgen American Express 2 in change
doll loses with Salesforce dot com Johnson & Johnson Merck and Verizon 3M was also down almost 3
So very rough Dow Day
And as you know
Mui Importante
When we have a big
Up or Down Dow Day
The first thing we will do tonight
Is scan the 30 stocks in the Dow
Because it takes me five seconds
And it'll give us a feel
For the Dow
And the issue right now would be
The two highest price stocks in the Dow
Which mean the most
To the Dow
Remember
It's not been
based on percentage move, it's based on dollar move.
And we can just tell you, a move in United Health, 10% move in United Health, you ready,
would be 48 points, 48 times 6.78.
It would be 325 Dow points.
If Walgreens did that, it'd be 20 Dow points.
Price weighted.
Up next.
More on the markets. News of the day. I'm Gary. This is the one-only Investors Edge.
Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge.
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The number to call is 888-4-2-5-59. That's 888-5-5-9. That's 888-4-2-4-2-5-9.
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It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working.
Hey, this promises to be fun.
Investors Edge.
The last bastion of quality programming.
With Gary Coltbaum.
It doesn't get better than this.
Let me segue.
How about them giants?
What did I tell you?
Number one, the playoffs and football is about which way you've been going and they've been peeking right at the right time.
Number two, there's something about the playoffs and winning in the playoffs.
that matter the most. You know what that is? No turnovers. Now, Jacksonville turned all over the ball
like 50 times to the charges and still won because the coach is a moron. But on the whole,
if you play a clean game and what's the other party equation, offensive and defensive lines
what the giants have shown, even though they were a little leaky on the defense side,
they go into Minnesota and beat them
and the quarterback Daniel Jones
really showing his stuff
now we go into Philadelphia
who in the first game
played terrible
we weren't the Giants yet
last game much better
gonna be an interesting game
I don't think Philadelphia
wins so easy if they do win
of course I'm biased
Tom Brady
lost, Tampa Bay just didn't look up for it.
You know, when you're home in the playoffs,
and Brady didn't look great,
and one interception was pedestrian at best.
So anyway, on to the next round of the NFL playoffs
with my Giants playing some damn good ball.
Looking forward to this week.
I think they play the game Saturday night at 8.
I wonder where I'll be
As usual I was watching the game by myself
cursing out the refs
Boy of some bad calls
Just so you know when the Giants played New England
In the Super Bowl
I can invite the parties
I have a couple of friends
I couldn't even go to one
I had to stay at be alone
I'm that ill when it comes to my Giants
Now when they beat Denver
I remember I was at a party
anyway
and people just
yapped too much
I don't want to watch the game
on to the next round
back on markets
so
what did we tell you about earning season
listen carefully
we're going to repeat ourselves
in spite of what others tell you
nobody has any clue
to any of the reactions
of any stocks that report.
Throughout the years we've seen perceived good reports sold off,
bad reports bought up.
I think I'm pretty good at this,
and I don't have a clue what the good and bad reaction is going to be.
On Friday, J.P. Morgan, bad reaction was down four or five bucks on the open,
finished up nicely.
Today, giving it back, and pretty much almost even,
now from the earnings. Goldman Sachs today, down 24 on a big miss. And let me just, if I had the ear
of the CEO of Goldman Sachs, or I was on the board, I would have told him he needed to warn.
It is the 17th of January. They knew these numbers a while back. They should have warned.
Why? Do you know what Goldman Sachs stock did?
in the previous one two three six days well last thursday it closed at 343 uh the thursday before uh friday it closed at
374 so thirty one dollars of buying in a better market uh 24 of it given back today was 29
I'd be pissed if that was me doing some of that buying.
Because they knew.
And I'm a big believer that company should warn.
Now, if they didn't know, I'd take it back.
But these people know their numbers as they get to the end of the quarter.
And they certainly know if they're going to miss by a mile.
So I would suggest that's a pretty good mistake, big mistake.
big mistake on Goldman's part and if any of you are a public company whatever's you should
listen to my thought on that by the way Goldman yeah they missed by they were expecting
five dollars and seventy seven cents and came in a two dollar three dollars and thirty two
cents by that's a gargantuan miss and of course in case you didn't know and we've been saying
no IPOs, no more scam spacks anymore.
I don't even know if Goldman did any spacks.
No more, well, investment banking business is down and more people getting fired in the industry.
And they're notorious for that.
They really, while the industry is cooking, they hire too many people.
And then we go into some sort of depression.
They fire too many.
And guess what's going to end up happening when things bottom?
They'll hire people back pretty quickly.
That's how it goes in that industry.
As far as travelers in the doubt, I don't know.
I didn't look it over yet, except the market didn't like it.
How's that?
I also want to mention in the aftermarket United Airlines, a strong move last eight days.
Unbelievable move the last eight days.
Eiffel Tower move the last eight days is up another two bucks in the aftermarket on their earnings.
So there's something going on with the airlines that markets like right now.
Beat on revenues, beat on earnings, remains confident in achieving this, that, and the other thing.
So good on them.
Airline stocks, wow.
I've hardly ever invested money in airline stocks.
Why?
I always had an issue how an industry can charge more to go from New York to Boston than from New York to L.A.
I've always wondered about how that works.
But I will say this on the other end.
Years ago, I said there is no way the airlines would get away with charging for baggage and all kinds of other things.
Damn, was I wrong.
I remember that day when they announced they're going to charge for baggage.
No way.
And then charge for seats.
No way.
It's billions and billions and billions and billions.
billion dollar industry for the airlines.
Man, was I wrong on that?
And I actually thought about it.
People can be pissed.
Something they weren't paying for, now they're going to have to pay.
25 for this, this, 15 for that, 10 for this, 20 for this, nope.
What the airlines recognized is you've got to travel.
If you want to get from here to there, you can have to travel.
And if you got bigger luggage then going to the overhead, you got to
no choice. Ha-ha. Well, that's the story. That's why the overhead bin business is huge.
Up next, more in the markets, movers of the day, news of the day. I'm Gary. This is the one
only investors edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture
X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less
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Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it.
This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect.
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We're listening to.
America is talking.
Investors Edge.
He's got to be pleased with that.
The crowd is just on his feet here.
He's a Cinderella boy.
With Gary Colbomb.
It comes highly recommended.
You're going to feel better if you talk to him.
Tonight, I'm going to see Barry Manilow.
I've seen him four or five times.
I love him.
Some of the great songs.
I got second row front for Big Barry.
I think he's in the 70s now.
First time I saw him was in college.
I'm going to say 1980.
Holy crap.
That's 43 years ago.
Yeah, in college.
Seen him in Vegas once.
There's one other time I saw.
Anyway, I'm looking forward.
to that and I'm deciding on Springsteen do you know if I want to get a ticket to
Springsteen here in the next couple weeks a 1200 bucks for an okay seat I don't know
what's happened they they ever I got second row Billy Joel here a few months ago for
350 a ticket whatever it's going on with ticket master and the way they're doing
things is is quite the insane so I may wait it out because you know I go to Wimbledon
every year. In Hyde Park, Springsteen is going to be July 8th or 9th. So I may wait for that.
And he's got the general admission standing at the stage. I got a sit in that. Super spreader.
Not so sure. Anyway, go to Manalo tonight. Can't smile without you. Can't laugh, can't sing.
trying hard to do anything
all right don't make fun
you know I'm a big
Genesis yes rush
all that other stuff but
gotta throw Manilow in there
and by the way
criss cross
air supply
no really I like those too
you know you gotta
lower the tone every now and then
all right
crypto
you know I've had no question
on buying crypto until this weekend.
I wonder why, in case you didn't know, the GBTC, which is the whatever vehicle for Bitcoin's
market price, went from $7.73 on December 30th.
Close that day at 830.
Hit 1245 today.
50%.
Before dropping to $11.72.
That's why people are all of a sudden asking.
Let me tell you why that's a worry.
And I want you to listen carefully.
First off, we are not telling you to buy, sell, shorter cover crypto, Bitcoin, Ethereum, any of those other names.
we have stuck by a mantra for a long while on crypto that came true.
It was one phrase that came true.
90% of the coins would drop 90% or more with most of them going to zero.
And little did we even know, that was the mantra.
That was the phrase.
Little did we know that the crux came out with 22,000 coins.
And when I mean crux, anywhere in everybody,
coming out with coins, not because they just like coins.
They were trying to be the next dogy coin, you know, that thing that came out as a joke
and went from nothing to 70 cents before you say boo.
So everybody was trying to take advantage of it.
Here's the worry.
And you may want to write this down.
By the way, dogy coin prices $0.70.
And by the way, when Musk was buying Tesla and mentioning Dogecoin, it went to $14.
cents from six cents in a matter of days. It's back to eight. Be careful. Here's the worry.
And I mean this big time, big time. My study of bull and bear markets, at the end of bare
markets, froth and speculation are usually wiped out and washed out for a good period of time.
and it still seems that every rally in this market,
they're buying up the meme stocks.
Hey, we warned you about bed, bath, and beyond in August.
We warned you.
It went from 4 to 30.
And you know what happened right at that time?
Market topped out again and had a vicious drop into October.
before the October low came.
They're buying up crypto now, and in case you don't know,
and I don't care what any of these ass clowns tell you,
it is just nothing but a speculation.
It's an asset minus the ET.
I heard another jackass today.
I'm not mentioning names.
Oh, here we go again.
It's going to go, blah, blah.
Meanwhile, this person is losing his butt,
losing his client's butt,
and every move.
Here we go.
again. And you know what else they've been moving here again? These fricking short squeeze stocks.
AMC theater is up a buck today. Undouble the volume. 20% move. 100 million shares short.
500 million shares in the float. Last week, bed bath and beyond. For all we know, they're on the
verge of bankruptcy. They're just going to shut. Maybe, maybe not. Guess what? Stock went from
bucks 70 to 587 in days. It's back to four. But froth and speculation. And we're just
letting you know, and maybe this time's different. We're good with that. You know,
people make fun of those words this time it's different. We're okay with it. Maybe this time it's
different. All we can tell you is that in our studies of bare markets, when they end,
froth and speculation are wiped out completely for months and months and months. So just keep that in
mind. Again, we're not telling you to buy, sell short cover. We'll just let you know.
And maybe Bitcoin's going to go to a million bucks like that Kathy Wood says.
Who knows?
That guy who mentioned it today, I think, said it's going 50 to 100,000 this year.
Or did he say two years?
And I'd like whoever interviewed him to ask, based on what?
I got news for you.
If it goes to 50,000, you know what's going to be based on.
Somebody paying 50,000.
Just remember what bubbles are.
It's just somebody paying more than the next person.
That's all. But when all is said and done, you need to have a reason behind it.
When I say to you Goldman Sachs did what it did today, it was based on earnings and sales and what they did.
When I say to you, this is a valuation with a price earnings multiple of 12.
It's based on earnings versus shares outstanding.
Now answer this question of what's behind the coins.
So be careful.
again, we're not telling you what to do. We're telling you what we think. You get to decide. And we're just letting you know this weekend from people we don't even know getting emails for the first time. What do you think? Should I buy Bitcoin? After it's already had a big five-day move, not caring that it was up 50%. Just hoping if they buy, the next person is going to pay a higher price. So I don't think the froth has been wiped out. I don't think the
I know the froth has not been wiped out.
The speculation has not been wiped out because here we go again.
That's all.
No sales biotechs at New Yearly highs.
Well, some of the great biotechs have gone bare market.
So just keep this in the file manager.
Do whatever you want to do with your money.
Just remember anything you do, just make sure you have stops in place.
It's okay to lose.
Just never lose big.
Like so many out there that just sat.
there and sat there and sat there and sat there and sat there just be careful up next a famous person
said we're going to have a gangbuster market this year my retort this is the one only investor's
edge this message is brought to you by the capital one venture x card venture x offers the premium
benefits you expect like a three hundred dollar annual capital one travel credit for less than you
expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step
closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.
The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change.
See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Sprecker. The platform
responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying
microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like,
sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably
already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show,
upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a
dozen apps your cousins swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize
your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for
well, more microphones.
Start your show today at spreeker.com.
Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it.
This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card.
Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit
for less than you expect.
Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase,
bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination.
Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.
The Capital One Venture X card.
What's in your wallet?
Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change.
See Capital One.com for details.
You're listening to.
What are we waiting for?
Well, what are you waiting for?
One, two, ready, go.
Action!
Investors Edge.
With Gary Culpa.
And welcome once again to Investors Edge.
Boy, we're doing lots of markets.
today, huh? A very
famous money manager
to be not to
to keep nameless
was out today saying we're going to have a
gangbuster year this year
in stocks.
And by the way, we had a very good week already.
First couple
of weeks, though, the Dow dropped
400 points today.
This famous money manager
had a bad
2022, like most money managers
that are fully invested. But
now says we're going to have a gang best of 2020. And went on based on, well, inflation's coming down and
actually some sound thoughts on why we would have a good year. Earnings, while earnings are now coming
down, earnings trough. Markets will bottom as earnings come down and then bottom. So I have no
argument with, who knows? Maybe we'll have a gang bust a year. Here's what I have a problem with.
And it's not even that last year was not a good year for these people. I repeat, nobody knows where
the hell the market's going to be at the end of 2023. You're hearing now, ooh, as the first week
of January goes, goes the year. Yay. You've had breath thrust like we've never seen or haven't
seen a while and eight out of nine times the market was up on average 16% that year and this that
and the other thing I see it all you may believe me or not believe me doesn't matter it's cool
we're still friends nobody knows where things going to be at 2023 the best thing you can do is
get your evidence from what the market gives and get definable trends that you can latch on to
and hopefully make a decent amount of coin in.
And if we get those great market years, terrific, all for it.
But here's the problem with people predicting the end of the year.
Let's see 2022.
Just for example, anybody know that Russia was going to invade Ukraine?
No.
Anybody know big inflation would come around?
No.
Did anybody know that the most important, powerful people on Earth had no clue the inflation was there?
No.
So, want me to continue?
I can probably sit here and think of 50 variables that nobody knows about that could come up.
Inflation can head back up.
Ooh, really?
That can't happen because, you know, everybody's saying now it's a guarantee inflation's down for the count.
Really?
They never saw inflation in the first place.
You know, except for us and a select few people, nobody predicted inflation.
And by the way, our prediction of inflation came very sound from a $9 trillion of printed money here and $9 trillion printed money in Europe.
Too much money chasing nothing usually means inflation, duh.
So inflation can happen.
Ooh, wait a minute.
What if the job market tanks real bad?
And unemployment really ticks up.
And demand really drops because, you know, we do know right now something's going on.
Savings rates of plunging and credit card usage is skyrocketing.
So what happens if we go into a pretty darn good recession?
Oh, really?
What happens if China invades Taiwan?
Really?
That's just a few things.
Really?
I can continue.
You know, we just had something called COVID that stopped the world.
And hopefully that never comes back.
But that's a variable.
This Marxist president.
raised taxes on corporations what if that really affects things that's a variable this president
raids federal spending from 4.4 trillion the year before COVID to 6 trillion this year what if that
crowds out the economy that's a variable want me to continue because I can and I have no clue what
those variables are going to show up this year what if and we've seen it in the last for the
bear in this recent rally.
10-year yield up, mark it down.
10-year yield down, mark it up.
What if that changes?
What if that changes?
So we're just letting you know.
Be careful all that talk.
We're going to keep watching the market.
And our other goal is to try and find those next big monsters.
And we know the characteristics of those next big monsters,
the strongest earnings and sales growth out there
and the ability to grow it for a very long period of time.
At those great numbers, which by the way you don't have anymore in Facebook, in Google, in Salesforce.com, in NVIDIA, in Amazon, in Netflix, in Tesla, in Apple.
That's a variable.
Of course, if they start to reaccelerate again in those big names, that's a variable.
You got it?
variables
unknowns
so nothing personal to all these people that predict the end of the year
we have no clue what the market's going to do tomorrow
let alone the end of the year
we are just going to want to get the main big trends
right when they show themselves
and that's it everything else is noise
everything else is an unknown
We'll look for companies like restaurants where people are waiting in line three hours.
We'll look for chip stocks, not potato chips, that are into products that are growing leaps and bounds.
And Viti is stronger again.
You know why?
A little crypto business.
We'll stay on top of it.
You have a great evening drive carefully.
And when you get home, do like we do, it's quite simple.
Make sure you hug your family, hug your children.
They will feel better.
You will feel better tomorrow.
I'll be on with Charles Payne 2 p.m. hour.
Fox Business Network, don't miss that.
And at tomorrow, the same time, we'll have this great radio show, just to guide you through
the morass.
Have a great one, everybody.
I'm heading for Manilow.
Good night, all.
Take care.
Bye, bye.
This has been Investors' Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk.
To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com.
That's GaryK.com.
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