Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - AI BYE BYE [03.26.2025]
Episode Date: March 26, 2025https://garykaltbaum.com__________Disclaimer:The opinions you hear on BizTalkRadio, BizTV, or BizTalkPodcasts are those of the hosts, callers, and guests and do not necessarily reflect those of BizTal...kRadio, BizTV, or BizTalkPodcasts, its management or advertisers. The information on BizTalkRadio et al does not constitute a recommendation, offer, or solicitation to buy or sell any product or securities. Please consult a professional before investing.
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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum.
Straight talk about you and your money.
Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum.
And welcome once again to Investors Edge.
I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host.
A thanks for being with us today.
Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening.
It is Wednesday.
It's March 26.
It's 2025.
Hope you're having a good day.
We're starting the show about 10 minutes before the close of the market.
And we have a lot to talk about.
In case you don't know, this is serious talk on everything that affects you, the markets, the economy, your job, your industry.
This administration, the past administration, doge, debt, deficits, scams, shams, corruption, you name it, we cover it.
Oh, artificial intelligence also.
We hope you've been listening on that.
But first, if you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at Gary,
K.com.
We'll also post it on our Twitter feed, which is now X.
And if you don't follow us on X, you should.
If you'd like to email us, go ahead.
Just be nice.
Because we'll be nice back unless you praise Hamas.
Where, by the way, tons of Gazans, Palestinians, are protesting against Hamas for the second day in a row.
And the media is not reporting it.
Just remember who these people are.
The media is not reporting it.
You can't find it anywhere in the media that Gazans, Palestinians,
but they'll certainly report what's happening at the colleges.
Anyway, ladies and gentlemen, let me read something to you.
Goldman, you know who Goldman is, Goldman Sachs.
Slashes 2025 and 2006,
artificial intelligence service shipments forecast by up to 35%.
They cut its server rack forecast to 19,000 units in 25,000 and 57,000 in 26, down from 31 and 66,
citing weaker than expected demand and production bottlenecks.
Lower profitability, they note lower profitability.
for Taiwan suppliers due to shifting customer orders and slowing ramp-ups.
So, let's do a couple of things.
Number one, we have told you to avoid artificial intelligence.
We have told you that.
Not because we are geniuses, but because we have eyes.
and as we scan throughout the day and at night after the close,
our eyes show downtrends slash bear markets
slash bearish markets in everything artificial intelligence.
And that includes the semiconductor chips,
that includes the data centers,
that includes the construction people to,
build the data centers. That includes the energy companies that was supposed to energize the data
centers. We also warned you, and we're going to warn you again, that very often in semiconductor
land, you get overordering. Many used to call it double ordering. And where that comes from
is fear and greed. You see, when an area is really, you see, when an area is really,
hot. The fear of not having enough
gets you greedy and you buy more chips than you need.
But then when you don't have orders to fill
and use those chips, you don't have to buy
anymore. And if many a company did that, you end up with
slowdowns and gluts. And whoever
you're buying the chips from will pay a penalty.
and eventually potentially have to lower their prices, which hurts margins, and of course, stock prices.
Well, I have news for you.
There's another part of that equation because on January 27th, there was announcement out of China on something called DeepSeek that supposedly, supposedly has AI chips that are much cheaper and much easier to make that.
NVIDIA chips, which means that would squeeze NVIDIA.
And also, since it's easier, who needs all these data centers?
Which means who needs the construction companies and who needs the energy companies?
Well, everything gapped down on that day, and rightfully so.
but then we had every analyst, every person come out.
No, no, no, no, no, no.
This is BS.
And deep seek this and deep seek that and don't worry about this and don't worry about that.
So for a week or so, they bounced them up.
Some better than others.
And then they topped them out.
And they've been crumbling ever since.
and what we get now are rumblings
that Microsoft is lowering their numbers
and now this Goldman
and we heard more about margins
and guess what they're doing today
to them off of this Goldman
well when we say them
these are the institutions
the big institutional crowds
that have these portfoles
meetings with their portfolio managers and analysts, and they're getting more and more information on, uh-oh.
And what do they do?
They look at how much they have.
Oh, we have how many shares of this, that, and the other thing?
Sell.
We have too much.
And today, as I speak, it's 357 p.m.
The NASDAQ's down 368.
The NASDAQ 100, 364.
favored names like Broadcom
breaking the 200-day moving average.
This is an AI name.
200-day moving average today.
Not a good break.
NVIDIA down almost $7 today.
And that looks to be troublesome.
And those are your better ones.
They're hitting the data centers.
They're hitting the construction.
They're hitting the energy guys like C-EG.
G-E-V-V-S-T, M-O-U-S-E.
So our worries possibly coming to fruition.
Well, let me put it better.
These things remain in bare markets,
and we would not own any at this juncture,
in spite of what you're being told.
But guess who tells us everything?
The institutions, the big money crowd,
and they're not happy today.
And they're selling.
And they're selling Taiwan Semiconductor who makes the NVIDIA chips.
They're selling the semiconductor equipment makers.
Why?
How many chips?
And of course, the semiconductor index has been in a bare market, a downtrendant for quite a while.
It topped out late in July.
And as I speak, the Sox is down 150 points today, 3.2% off of this.
So just letting you know, not a good day for the artificial intelligence crowd.
And I beg of you to listen to the market and not anybody else.
And why do we say that?
Because it's simple.
In bare markets, analysts will watch something go drop 50% and then tell you we're changing from a buy to a hold.
And you can't have that happen.
And I have news for you.
There are things down 50% from the highs.
There are things down 50% from the highs.
Now, as usual as we close this segment, if things change, we'll let you know.
But man, oh man, the bounces slash rallies have been anemic.
And the drops have been kind of vicious.
and now two stalwarts.
And when I say stalwarts, they're not really stalwarts.
Broadcom and Nvidia, they're clipping them today.
Broadcom more in that it takes out the 200-day moving average.
I have some other news.
So it just turned to 4 o'clock.
I believe that it was a week ago when the president said,
well we may be easier on tariffs and all that with the autos well i am awaiting now that the president
has announced that he's announcing auto tariffs after the close now is he going to surprise people
and say no auto tariffs why would you announce an announcement on tariffs if you're not going to do
them so guess what happened to the market on that that's up next and the doge moment
This is the one only Investor's Edge.
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Investors Edge.
The last bastion of quality programming.
With Gary Coltbaum.
It doesn't get better than this.
And welcome once again to Investors Edge.
So we're going to do a little doge moment today.
We're going to save for another day because I have a lot of things to discuss.
And sometimes it's just the little things that piss me off.
Just the little things.
As you know, the Morlocks have used us as a big, gigantic, freaking slush fund.
They're crooked.
They're corrupt.
I don't care if they're a DR or I, but it turns out that the D's had Biden funnel our tax dollars to these people.
These scum, and you know who they are, and we'll keep talking about them.
But here's a little one today, if you don't mind.
You see, Doge yesterday terminated 113 contracts with a ceiling value of $4.7 billion and savings of $3.3 billion.
Nice.
And you wonder, are the contracts needed worth it?
Are they going too far?
Here's a little one.
they were going to take just
145,000
of our tax dollars.
You know, a footnote
because your community
or your homeless shelter
in your community couldn't use
145,000 of our tax dollars, right?
It would rather go to
Peru
climate change activities.
What?
What?
What?
what Peru doesn't have a government and can't pay for their own climate change activities?
I wonder how much commissions somebody got for $145,000, just $145 to Peru.
Climate change activities.
What was those activities?
Oh, we bought $145,000 electric vehicle car and gave it to the present.
You get my point.
That is your doge moment for today.
Small as is, but representative as it is.
We move on.
The Dow is down 132.
The Dow was doing okay today.
In fact, I think the Dow at one point today, let me give out that number.
The Dow hit 42-8-21.
42-821.
So that would be about
300 and 70 points higher.
So the Dow was up about 240
and finished down 132.
What happened?
Well, the market was buying up early today, the financials,
economically sensitive,
because we got this durable goods
number, which was better than expected.
We don't know if it's a trend or not.
But then we heard that Trump was going to have a four-clock thing on the tariffs.
And boom.
And as you know, one of the lynch pins of the market before the top was the big banks.
Well, recently, over the last seven days, they've been bouncing up the big banks, about 40%
of the drop. And then guess what happened today? Well, Goldman dropped $12.40 after being up $7 early.
That's $19.00 times six and a half. It's like a hundred and whatever Dow points.
So they got that. The strength, the growth strength today, they got those. Spotify, down 39.
Netflix, down 29.
For instance,
these were the growth strength
that we have highlighted for you.
The strength?
They were able to drop them
29 and 39. Yeah, they're high priced.
I get that.
But if the market's going to be good,
listen carefully.
It shouldn't be so easy
to sell them down.
That's my take.
I'm a big believer in the markets in tone, and that is the ability to move stocks up or down.
Is it easy to move them up?
Is it easy to move them down?
I'm always interested in that.
So just letting you know, just letting you know, they kind of sort of made it easy to drop them on there, you know what's today.
we'll see what tomorrow brings but today was a real mushy day advanced declines 1328 on the
new york 1329 on the nazdak what do we tell you about advanced declines we want them positive
we'll take the indices down but advanced decline strong gives us a real thought process of the
tone of the market. And they came after tech and internet and software and artificial intelligence
today. I'm going to use the words with a vengeance. And the patterns in them do not lend to goodness.
As always, if things change, we will gladly let you know. But man, oh man, oh,
man, they were not happy today. And I'm just wondering, you listening? I'm just wondering when
if we get a bigger, more bold-faced announcement eventually on this whole AI, which may be big.
I'm not saying it isn't, but did they overdo it?
and have they overdone it?
I'm wondering,
because I'm just letting you know
often bad news comes out
after a drop
because the market, the institutions,
sought in front.
And that's why we just pay attention to them.
Because very often,
by the time you hear bad news on something,
something is already way down.
And that was the story today.
hope you have listened. We have said with no uncertain terms on the semis, the data centers,
the construction, the energy. They were fooey today, ladies and gentlemen. What was stronger today?
Well, they went back into defensive food, drug, not drugs. Drugs. Drugs are acting poorly.
Food, beverage, tobacco. Don't ask me why people are still smoking cigs. I don't know.
how anybody can smoke a cigarette. Up next, what else in the markets? And news of the day,
this is the one only investor's edge. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear
refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their
zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative
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men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for
25% off your first order with code comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John,
comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture
X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less
than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase,
bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination.
Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.
The Capital One Venture X card.
What's in your wallet?
Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change.
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America is talking.
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He's got to be pleased with that.
The crowd is just on his feet here.
He's a Cinderella boy.
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It comes highly recommended.
You're going to feel better if you talk to him.
And look once again to Investors Edge.
So, if you don't mind, because we love talking about everything.
the Trump administration screwed up
they had a
what they thought was a secure call
or a chat about
the Houthi rebels and what they were going to do
and it turns out this guy named
Jeff Goldberg from Atlantic was on the chat
and he wasn't supposed to be
and
the fact that it's a secure call
and none of this stuff is supposed to get out.
It's not good.
It's not a good thing to happen.
But I want to make sure you know something very important.
You listening carefully?
Because we pull no punches.
If you would have turned on CNN and MSNBC last night,
and I decided to, I had to,
you would have thought that chat was them preparing another 9-11 to the United States.
By the way, that's not hyperbole.
If you were to watch CNN and MSNBC last night,
you would have thought they were preparing to murder Americans.
I'm not kidding you.
The talk, the words, the attitude was these people,
the defense secretary, Michael Waltz, were the antichrist,
the biggest scum of the earth and they're out to destroy the world
and the end of the world here,
and the media were having fits.
So I'm just letting you know they haven't changed.
They're full of crap, this media.
They will take something.
By the way, not good.
Not good what happened.
But they'll turn it into the most outrageous, horrible.
My goodness gracious.
Just remember, the last president on purpose
led 10 million people into this country,
unabated, admitted they didn't know where a ton of them were, did not know if they were terrorists in here or not,
and the media never said a freaking word about it for three plus years, yet this is the end of the world.
The media never said a freaking word when illegals came in and murdered women and men.
No.
But now this is the end of the end.
of the world. And let me be clear, what happened is not good news and they'd better learn a lesson from
this. You can't have this crap out. You can't have this out. And Michael Waltz was on TV last night.
He took complete responsibility for it. And I actually praised the president from not listening to these
twits. And they fire him, fire him, fire him, fire him. What a bunch of bull crap artists.
a bunch of bull crap artists
and I repeat it's not good
they better fix it
but I just want to let you know
the media has not changed
they don't give a crap about you
they are just after this amount of people
these people and they kiss the butts
of these other people over here
for four years they left Biden alone
they left his family alone
and they're millions of dollars of corruption
you know his son Hunter
had people buying his art for 500
thousand a piece. It was just a payoff. That was just a payoff. Here, we're going to buy this
art, which is worth a dollar, and we're going to pay 500,000, and nobody can say a word about it,
but we knew what the hell that was. You think the media covered? No. You think they covered
the immigration for three years? As they said, the border was secure? No. Do you think they
covered all the missing children coming through the border? No. You think they reported all the
death of people drowning trying to come through under Biden or burning to death in trucks of the heat?
No.
But they ran it 24-7 last night and today, and I'm repeating, go watch five minutes you'll throw up.
You would think that Pete Hegseth and Michael Waltz were planning another 9-11 on us.
That's how they were covering it.
And of course they're thrown around the word democracy, democracy.
Yeah, democracy.
Two trillion dollar deficits under Biden.
Such a democracy.
Handing out $350 billion to John Podesta to give out to donors and friends we're finding out for fake climate companies.
Democracy.
I'm so sick of these people.
I don't even know where to go with it.
They're lucky I'm never a guest on those shows.
I'd rip those stuffings out.
Anyway, let's hope the administration doesn't let that happen again.
You would think they learned the lesson about this.
You would think.
And I don't know this Jeffrey Goldberg from Adam.
I know the Atlantic is a lefty rag, but that, you know, that's neither here nor there.
I don't know them personally.
I've heard of them, and that's that.
Anyway, that's the story.
Next, well, it's 416, and I see the president is still not.
out there talking about tariffs, but he's got some, maybe they're finally, they're in the
back room right now, and hopefully the Treasury Secretary is with President Trump saying,
please don't do it, please don't do it, please don't do it, don't do the tariffs,
please, please, please, please, please, please.
His thought process auto tariffs.
You're great.
Sure.
And let me be repetitive as repetitive can be.
I don't understand.
If you're two big economic policies to grow the economy are, number one, less regulations, number two, lower taxes.
Why would you want to raise taxes by hundreds of billions of dollars, as you say out of your own mouth?
The president said we're going to raise hundreds of billions of dollars through tariffs.
Well, those are taxes.
That's all.
And in case you don't know, the markets don't like them.
And do you know why the markets don't like them?
Because they're higher taxes.
Duh.
Duh.
And of course the other part of the equation is, what days today, Wednesday?
Who knows what he's going to say on Thursday?
The dude, our president, has some great economic policy,
but he keeps kicking the economic policy and the teeth with these tariffs that make no sense whatsoever.
No sense.
whatsoever
based on his own words
anybody want to debate me because you can't
we'll stop there
money flows today for some reason
McDonald's gets defensive money flows
I don't know why beats the hell out of me
but McDonald's acts okay
they were buying into tobacco today
the food and beverage that was getting hit for a bit
they bought into that and that's defensive
oils were much better earlier
down a little bit. I got to tell you, Chevron stock is at a new yearly high. God bless it.
What I don't understand, that I'm going to have to look it up, and I haven't yet. Why is Chevron
at new yearly highs, but Occidental Petroleum is down near New Yearly lows?
There's the president. He's giving an update on tax cuts first. Let me see if there's anything
going on in the aftermarket. I got nothing happening in the aftermarket, so it has not moved
the needle and I don't know if he's doing anything on the tariffs just yet.
What have you.
But we love the tax cuts.
And just remember what a tax cut is.
It's our money.
And just remember the Marxists on the left think it's their money.
You know what they keep telling us?
The tax cuts are a cost to the government.
Here's what I say to them, up yours.
You don't even turn on your lights without our taxes.
And we give it to you.
Just remember that.
You produce nothing for us.
Just remember that.
You're a Hoover vacuum.
And when you think you don't have enough, you go into debt.
And you've teased it forever and ever to the tune of 37 trillion.
I want you to think about this.
A trillion dollars of our tax dollars each year goes towards interest.
Do you know the year 2000?
Our total federal spending was $1.8 trillion.
We're at seven now.
They quadrupled the size of government since the year 2000.
Quadrupled.
You know, I should go work for Trump.
I'd be a big help to him, especially on the messaging front.
And I think I'd help him out.
Maybe he'd listen to me on the tariffs.
Nah, I don't think he listens to anybody, right?
Yeah, we'll see how it plays out.
Again, it's 421 right now, and I do not see any news on tariffs.
But the market's not moving after the close.
Up next, what else we got for you?
Not much good.
This is the one-only investor's edge.
It's no use putting it off.
The best time for an underwear refresh is now.
Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day.
Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands,
and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer.
With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you.
Don't settle for less.
Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort.
That's Tommyjohn.com, code comfort.
Tommy John, comfort perfected.
This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X.
card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit
for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase,
bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000
airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge
access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker.
The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain.
Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives,
and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio.
If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster.
The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple.
You record your show, upload it once, and Sprinker distributes it everywhere people listen.
Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big
thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might
someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're
going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. You're listening to
What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go.
Action! In the Gester's Edge, with Gary Kulp-B.
Welcome once again to Investors Edge.
Well, in real time, I've got another one for you.
And we didn't predict it, but we outlined it for you.
Headline, Microsoft pulls back for more data center leases in U.S. and Europe.
Microsoft has abandoned data center projects set to use two gigawatts of electricity.
in the U.S. and Europe in the last six months due to an oversupply relative to its current demand
forecast. In other words, overdid it. Everything we outlined for you that we were worried about
is happening. The tech giants withdrawal from new capacity leasing was largely led by the decision
not to support additional training workloads from chat GPT maker OpenAI. Investor skepticism
about the hefty artificial intelligence spending by U.S. tech firms has increased due to slow payoffs in the rise of Chinese startup DeepSeek,
which showcased AI technology to much lower cost than its Western rivals.
Everything we outlined for you.
And the other part of the equation, when I'm reading companies, oh, we're going to spend $400 billion in the next whatever.
I don't need a calculator say that's bull crap.
Why? Because you lose a ton of money if you spent that much. You'll lose a ton of money. I don't believe most of this talk of how much is going to be spent going forward. I've never heard in my lifetime, and I've seen a lot, companies predict such large expenditures going forward when they don't know.
What the demand's going to be.
Do you want to know a great example of that?
It's Ford. Ford.
They had no idea how much demand there was going to be for their electric vehicle business,
and they made a ton of them, I believe, forced by the Biden administration.
All of a sudden, everything's electric vehicle.
electric vehicle, electric vehicle.
They lost $5.1 billion in 2024.
They lost $4.7 billion in 2023.
They predict another $5.5.5 billion in 2025,
all on electric vehicles that they could not sell.
This is what I equated to.
Little one plus one equals two.
And I think that is what you are seeing now in artificial intelligence.
When I heard these numbers from Oracle and Soft Bank and Taiwan Semi, I'm like, how much you're going to spend?
It was unheard of.
And I don't know if they were just kissing the butt of the president.
I think part of that's in there.
But anybody with a rusty abacus could realize, wait a minute.
There's not going to be any return on that investment.
In fact, odds favor, if you did that, you're going to lose your arse.
And guess what?
The markets are reflecting it.
Now, what's going to be interesting?
I'm wondering, with these stocks rally, not the data centers because they ain't going to get built like they thought,
Not the energy because they're not going to need them or the construction,
but what about some of these companies that are announcing $300 billion and $400 billion,
and all of a sudden they announce, well, it's only going to be $100 billion?
With those stocks rally, because, oh, we're not going to spend that much,
are they getting penalized because of this supposed spending?
answer don't know thought process we'll see what do i care i don't i don't own them and by the way i'm
just reading this alphabet 75 billion on a i build out this year 29% more while medas pledges
much as 65 billion notice pledged doesn't mean they're going to as always if anything changes we'll let you know
but you know where we want to see the changes in the action of these stocks and right now they keep tracing out these crappy bearish phase patterns crappy bearish phase patterns
and as you know we're pretty darn good at reading bare phase patterns we've done it for you for years even when the
markets up there are bare phases in different areas and we tell you to avoid those areas.
And then of course there's the market itself and whether it's a small cap switch, boy,
are they dead or the transports, man are they dead? Or the retail, boy, are they dead. Or the
semis, whoa. So we'll keep on top of them, put our best foot forward. But when it comes to this
AI. I wish I had better news because I know a lot of people that are neck deep in that stuff.
I get emails from people. What should I do? And you know what? I email back? I don't know.
Because you're now in no man's land. Very tough to gauge once something is down and sometimes
way down. Because you're darned if you do, darned if you don't. You never know when you're going
to get these countertrend bounces slash rallies, which sometimes can be vicious.
Or you just keep going.
That's the AI.
So I wish we had better news today, but yuck.
I'm still waiting.
I don't think we're going to be off the air in a second.
I have not heard a thing on tariffs yet from the president.
He's a little bit late.
And I'm looking at the aftermarket here and nothing going on.
So that all said, we'll see what he asked to say tonight.
You have a great evening.
Drive carefully.
When you get home, do like we do quite.
simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You'll
feel better. I promise. Stay well. Be well. We appreciate you listening. Good night.
This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get
in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com.
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