Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - AI DAY [01.22.2025]
Episode Date: January 22, 2025https://garykaltbaum.com/...
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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum.
Straight talk about you and your money.
Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum.
And welcome once again to Investors Edge.
I'm Gary Colbom, your host.
A thanks of being with us today.
Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen.
Happy that you are listening.
It's Wednesday the 22nd of January, 2025.
And I wrote out another check, 2024.
Isn't that amazing?
It's the 22nd.
and I wrote out a check
2024. Usually
I'm good by now.
I'll figure it out.
Anyway, hope you're having a good day. We have lots to cover.
In a minute, we'll do the Trump moment
because he's doing a lot of things that actually matter.
Big time. We'll do the markets.
The economy. Your job, your industry,
anything else that comes to mind that we think matters.
And if you do not get this radio show in your city,
We'll post it at gary k.com.
We'll post it on our Twitter feed, which is now X.
And if you don't follow us on X, you should.
And if you'd like to email us, just be nice.
Because we're nice back.
The Trump moment.
That's how we're going to start the show every day while he's doing a ton of things.
Because we do think it's of import.
First off, we had some reaction yesterday.
I said we completely disagree with what Trump did about the January 6th,
a full pardon for everybody in commutations and all that.
We believe that it should have been selective, and we think there were levels of crimes that were done.
And I had one person say that it was a setup that people were put into the crowd to engage these people in order to do whatever they did.
Yeah, a short right.
Okay.
I had another one that just disagreed, that believe that it has not been fair out there.
And that's where I will agree.
That's where I'll agree.
The Black Lives Matters, riots that destroyed, destroyed, not one arrest.
So yeah, there is selective justice out there.
I get it.
And I do also believe that some of these jail terms were very, very hard.
harsh. But again, I think you and I believe in free will, right? It seems to me these people
that went into D.C. that was free will, don't you think? Anyway, it's over. They're out.
One of them already got arrested on gun charges today. That's pretty funny. Next, in the Trump
moment, just let you know. The Trump administration
is considering selling two-thirds of the federal government's office stock.
That could put more than 200 million square feet on the market
as the federal landlord, the General Services Administration,
oversees 370 million square feet around the country.
The reason they would be doing this, it's not being used.
Just letting you know. Just letting you know.
In the Trump moment, Iran's commandant,
You know, the head ass clown says they are going to halt nuclear weapons development based on putting a handout to the Trump administration about getting some sort of deal done.
You know what we call that in my world?
The wimp gets wimpy when a tough guy shows up.
That's the story.
You know, Trump is not going to be nice to Iran.
We'll see what happens.
That's a little bit of the Trump moment, but I got to add one more thing.
Because, as you know, we have not been a friend of the UN.
We think they're an anti-Semitic, anti-Jew, anti-Israel bunch of clowns over there.
They put like North Korea and Cuba on the Human Rights Commission.
You can go check all that out.
and the Women's Commission, it's kind of ill.
We're finding out that Hamas held hostages in compounds belonging to the United Nations.
The three hostages that would just let go reveal that.
Just letting you know.
Just letting you know.
Just remember, the United Nations that put sanctions on Israel day in and day out
and never says a word about North Korea where the dude.
who runs the show, kills his own family with hellfire missiles?
How about the guy who ran Syria mustard gas on his own people?
Anyway, that's a little bit of the Trump moment.
And we'll keep covering it, but the big part of the Trump moment today is the announcement of Stargate.
Great name. Stargate.
This will be a collaboration between Oracle, chat, whatever, whatever.
SoftBank, also part of it is Microsoft, Nvidia, and others.
And boy, oh boy, that they have a day today on a gap to the upside in the market.
Now, just so you know, I did a deep dive on this today.
I can't even come up with anything for you as of yet, of where this is going.
The only thing I can tell you is I watched Larry Ellison twice last night.
The guy is a genius of technology and says this is a game changer.
We shall see.
I won't argue.
Let me give you some final numbers.
on the moves in companies that were affected just by this news.
Number one, Oracle, the stock was dead in a downtrend,
gaped down on its last earnings yesterday, off the news,
went from 162 and 3 quarters to 172 and 3 quarters,
hit a high today, a 192 closed at 184.
but if you think about it,
or you don't have to think about it,
it's gone from 163 to 184 on this news.
That's a huge move for an Oracle.
Oh, but we're not done.
Microsoft, the stock has been dead.
In fact, until today, the stock has done nothing
since February of last year.
Excuse me, February of this year.
No gains of last year, my bad.
The, up $17.70 today. Volume wasn't that big. Just coming up the right side of a big, long range, but up $17 for Microsoft. Wow. What else was up today? Arm Holdings, part of this AI thingababab, up $24 today on four times.
average volume. By the way, their last quarter earnings were down 19% and their revenues were
only up 5%. A major deceleration. But arm holdings definitively affected by this news.
NVIDIA, well, we had a good 24 with that. I can tell you two and a half weeks ago, we bought it
and got stopped out as it got trashed like the next day. It's retooled. It's cut out. It's
Coming up the right side again, finished up $6 today.
Volume was just a little bit above average, but leave no doubt based on this news.
Now, to be clear, Elon Musk already came out and said, wait a minute, they don't have the money to do this.
They came out and said, he's wrong.
I don't know.
We'll be watching.
What I'm always careful about is big moves based on news like this.
But I think this could matter.
And we'll be watching those names closely and any other names that show up.
And I can also tell you the semiconductors were very strong today, though they did sell down at the close.
In fact, 31 and 25 was 56 was up 146.
The semiconductor index finished only up 90 and had a nice little sell down towards the close.
Not sure what that means.
but that's the story today
bingo
that was the story today
there is one other story we'll get to in a minute
on a big gap to the upside
on Netflix
where they look like
they gapped it up just a little bit too much
and we'll explain what that means
but again this artificial intelligence thing
that was kind of going dormant
kind of sort of going dormant.
Woke up today.
To what extent I definitely do not know.
Does it continue from here?
I definitely do not know.
But what we will do is pay attention to all.
And there were a few other names that kind of sort of made a move
based on it all so but less so.
Up next, what about that, Netflix?
Remember that from yesterday?
And more.
Gary. This is the one only Investor's Edge.
Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum,
hosted a nationally syndicated radio show
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Hello, hello, I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of Smart Talks with IBM.
I recently spoke with IBM's new director of research, Jake Mbata.
We discussed his vision for the future of quantum computing.
At IBM research, what we always do is answer what is the future of computing,
whether it's coming up with new algorithms, coming up with better AI,
coming up with quantum, or coming up with just how do different accelerators go together.
It's our DNA to answer the question of what is the future.
Isn't it a perfect problem for IBM because you kind of need to have a legacy of building stuff?
Yes.
Building actual physical machines.
Yeah, it's why I came to IBM.
I wanted the experience, the culture of building hard things that others have not done before.
Where do you imagine we are in the timeline of this technology?
There will come a point when it will.
mature. Right? Yeah. My cell phone is a mature technology at this point. How far are we from that
point with Quantum? By 2029, we'll build the first fault-tolerant quantum computer. That is one that can
run a very, very large, large problem. To learn how IBM is building the future of computing,
visit IBM.com slash quantum. Want to earn extra income for your business? Amazon Hub delivery is
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It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working.
You're listening to.
Hey, this promises to be fun.
Investors Edge.
The last bastion of quality programming.
With Gary Coltbaum.
It doesn't get better than this.
Okay.
So, for those that do not know, we talk a lot about gaps.
Gaps.
Gaps.
Gaps in price.
What does that mean?
Well, Netflix, which closed yesterday at $870,
opened up today at $1,000, up $130.
Because of material news, what was that news?
Their earnings and sales, actually earnings made estimates,
sales was about there.
But they announced new subs in the quarter instead of being 5 million in change were like 18 million in change.
And of course, reason being they had that fight with Tyson, that fake fight might as well been put on by the WWE.
And now they do have the WWE.
I don't know which is which.
But very often Netflix will move on how many subscribers.
The other thing, which I'd even mention.
during the show yesterday because I didn't see it is they are raising prices.
And in the past, while they've raised prices, they've been able to keep people.
So that happened also, but the stock closed at $9.52 in change after opening up at $1,000.
What does that tell you?
The buyers were too, just so you know, in order to open at $1,000,
There had to be buyers there.
That's why the stock gaps to a certain price.
There's buyers there.
But obviously, the sellers were thanking the Lord for price and closed at 952 in change as I'm seeing a trade right now.
Again, what that means?
There was some bad buyers.
That's all.
The old high was 942.
we will now watch that $942 level.
Well, $9.41.75.
If it penetrates below that high,
that means the stock's going to have work to do.
If it shows that it can hold there, that could be of import.
What else Netflix did was it carried Spotify up, subscribers.
Spotify opened up $22 it was up early in the day, finished up six.
Why?
Because Netflix stock went down also.
So a lot of jello moving on the plate at this juncture.
We're an earning season.
There's thousands of them to come and we'll stay on top of it as best as
we can. Other earnings reports today of note that stuck out. C-Gate was up seven bucks today to
what 108 but hit 112 so that kind of got a little bit sold down. Interactive brokers though
up I believe $17 to a new high been a strong financial stock whatever they're doing markets
liking. Something like an amphanol was up five bucks to about $78 on volume, on good numbers. And then
there were things that crapped out also, which we don't really need to get into, but there are
plenty of stocks that are gaping down also on what we would call perceived not good news. Have you
ever heard of Agilisus, whatever, closed down 20% to 100 bucks. For instance, just letting you know.
Just letting you know. So that's the story today. We're going to have, let's see, tomorrow American Airlines, Alaska Air, Elevons, GE, Union Pacific. Oh, and by the way, this also happens. United Airlines gapped up today.
to $1.16, 6 bucks from 110, closed at 108, down two.
Why does that happen?
It's very simple.
The stock's had a good run already, and looks like at the close today, all the good news is in the stock,
thus a little sell-down, which doesn't change the up trend in it, but maybe
it's all factored in. We shall see. It's never usually, I take that back, usually never good. Is that an oxymoron? Usually never? Yeah, it is. Usually not good when a stock opens up big and finishes down. That defines selling. That defines distribution. That defines stay the hell out of the way.
That's the story with that.
And as we go through, next week is going to be a powerful week.
But the rest of the week, you got Texas Instruments American Express, which has been strong, intuitive surgical, which already pre-announced numbers and has had a good move.
I mentioned GE, Union Pacifics and CSX in the rails.
But again, the big story today is Netflix, opened up too hot.
but the bigger story was, boy, this AI thing wakes up.
We'll see if it's a one-day wonder or not, not sure.
What came in today, and when we say came in, pulled back, was all the stuff.
Remember, last Monday they put in a low.
These were all the areas to avoid.
And then last Monday we said, they'll probably rally a little bit from here.
Well, they kind of sort of V-shaped moved up.
Well, today they sold off oils.
They sold off a lot of the industrials, not all.
They sold off insurance, a little bit in the financials.
They sold off transports and stuff like that.
Defense stocks were hit, auto dealers were hit, bunch of retail were down.
You know why the Dow was up 130?
Microsoft up 17.
Salesforce.com up 5.
Amazon up four
and Viti up six
all the big tech
now Travelers is in the Dow
Guess what that did
That gaped up
But hit 254
Close the 246
And change
What did we say that is
Distribution
Sellers
Opportunity to stay up
Sold down
It tells you up above these levels
There's good sellers there
and that's to be noted at all times.
What you really look at to see when a stock gaps up is hold.
Hold or continuation.
We love when a stock gaps up and then sits for two or three weeks
and then goes on its way again.
That's what we call good setups.
Up next, more in the markets.
News of the day.
I'm Gary. This is the one-n-only investors' edge.
Hello, hello. I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of Smart Talks with IBM.
I recently spoke with IBM's new director of research, Jake Mbata.
We discussed his vision for the future of quantum computing.
At IBM research, what we always do is answer what is the future of computing,
whether it's coming up with new algorithms, coming up with better AI,
coming up with quantum, or coming up with just how do different accelerators go,
together. It's our DNA to answer the question of what is the future. Isn't it a perfect problem
for IBM because you kind of need to have a legacy of building stuff? Yes.
Building actual physical machines. Yeah, it's why I came to IBM. I wanted the experience,
the culture of building hard things that others have not done before. Where do you imagine we are
in the timeline of this technology? There will come a point
when it will mature, right?
Yeah.
My cell phone is a mature technology at this point.
How far are we from that point with quantum?
By 2029, we'll build the first fault-tolerant quantum computer.
That is one that can run a very, very large, large problem.
To learn how IBM is building the future of computing, visit IBM.com slash quantum.
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investors edge.
He's got to be pleased with that.
The crowd is just on his feet here.
He's a Cinderella boy.
With Gary Colbomb.
It comes highly recommended.
You're going to feel better if you talk to him.
Hey, yo.
What you don't want to see on an earnings report,
electronic arts lowers its net bookings forecast for quarter three.
Stock closed at 142 and change.
It's 132 in change.
Never want to see something.
like that? Never, never, never, never, never, never, never, never, never, never, never, never, never, never.
The great companies announce, raises bookings for the next quarter, not lowers bookings for the next quarter.
advanced declines today with the NASDAQ up 252, 1667 up 2506 down on the NASDAQ.
What does that mean to you?
It simply means, simply means, it was Mr. Big Stuff today.
Microsoft, if I have my list somewhere, I know I have my list somewhere.
Microsoft is number three on the NASDAQ 100 at 8%.
And number three in the S&P at 6.3%.
That's something.
NVIDE is number two in the NASDAQ 100 at 8.67%
And number two in the S&P at 6.86%.
They had good days.
Netflix is number 11 in the NASDAQ 100 at 2.3%.
It is not in the top 9 of the S&P%.
the S&P. Amazon is number four in the S&P and four in the NASDAQ 100. That had a decent day today,
but they report in five trading days. Got to be wary of that. I don't think Oracle's in the top
10 of either, but I'm pretty sure it's top 20. And that had a good day. But that was the story
today under no uncertain terms.
It was a big cap day in tech land while a lot of stuff was down today.
Now let me segue back to a Trump moment because I forgot to mention this.
Wow.
Talk about a whirlwind, especially on immigration.
He's shutting the border down.
Mexico.
You're staying in Mexico.
All kinds of logical things.
All kinds of logic.
And I'm hearing people very upset about deportations.
It's interesting.
Do you know who is the greatest deporter of migrants ever?
Do you know who that was?
Barack Obama.
I don't know if you know this.
He was the king of deportations.
Did you ever hear anybody complain about him deporting people?
No.
But now that Trump is looking to do it, he is scum.
Just letting you know how life works.
Elon Musk puts up his arm that looks like he's saying,
Heil Hitler and he's saying Heil Hitler. I've got 50 Democrats showing their arm just like Elon Musk,
but they didn't do Heil Hitler. AOC, who is an anti-Semite, is complaining about it. And all of a sudden,
they're posting pictures of her three times with the sign. I just love people. And for some reason,
they continue to want to make Hitler famous.
Everybody's Hitler.
Everybody's Hitler.
I just love anti-Semites calling people Hitler.
Now, back on the, there's also talk, oh, if you deport these people, they're waiters and waitresses
and they're on the farms, this and that, I will promise you this.
I want you to listen carefully.
All this talk of 10 million people being sent out, it ain't how.
happening. What they're going to be doing, this is the way I see it happening. And as you know,
I've been pretty on top of things. If you are a criminal and they're not here legally, you're out of
here. That's it. If you are here illegally and you are praising Hamas, you're out of here.
That's where it's going to start.
and then after that I believe they're going to pinprick it
there's not going to be this gargantuan everybody out of here
and that's why we were telling you about over-promising and under-delivering
they're already starting to back away on them numbers
why how are you going to move 10 million people
how you're going to find 10 million people
ain't happening
we'll keep you up to date on it, we'll let you know what's going on, but that is my logical prediction
as we move forward. I still believe Barack Obama will remain deporter-in-chief, the greatest
of all time. Back on markets, I've already got emails about do I think
this AI announcement was just that? Well, the way I look at it, I don't think it was just that.
But what I do believe is that the market may be overdoing it because these things don't happen
in a week. And for a stock to move billions of dollars,
Because of it.
I got to tell you, Microsoft, let's see, up 17 bucks today, Microsoft.
That's a market cap move today of 100 billion.
I'm not so sure this is going to be 100 billion to them.
So we'll see.
Remember, markets are very emotional in the short run.
And this AI thing, without a doubt, is quite noisy.
and if you watch the interview with Larry Ellison yesterday,
you're like thinking, they're going to cure cancer off of this?
I mean, that's what they're saying,
that this AI and drugs and vaccines and wonder drugs
and our health going forward,
it's going to be the end all deal.
I sure hope he's right.
Damn.
Imagine if you can cure Alzheimer's and dementia,
a cancer.
Imagine. So I'm open to anything. I've always said how we have not cured cancer yet.
The amount of the years that we've been fighting it and the amount of money that's in it and research and you still can't knock this thing dead.
Kind of weird. But we can always hope. And leave no doubt, I had a relative that died of multiple myeloma when they got it, a year.
later gone. You live in 10 years now, 15 years with multiple myeloma. So AIDS, it was a death
sentence. Not anymore. So we're definitely on the move. I can't wait to we hear something on
cancer in a very big way. And by the way, we have made major strides on cancer. Major strides, but wouldn't
mind that sucker eradicated. And don't think for a second, we are watching companies and their
developments on wonder drugs. And you know, we always complained about no sales biotechs,
but some of these no sales biotex find drugs and get bought out by big drug companies
because of the things they may have. So stay tuned. What I'm going to be watching for,
for in the next few days, all the things that came up in the last, those avoids, they all hit
today massive resistance and pulled back. Is it just a pullback or the continuation of the
ick will be on it? Up next, this, that, and the other thing, and whatever else. This is the one
only investor's edge. Hello, hello. I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of Smart.
talks with IBM. I recently spoke with IBM's new director of research, Jake Mbata. We discussed
his vision for the future of quantum computing. At IBM research, what we always do is answer
what is the future of computing, whether it's coming up with new algorithms, coming up with
better AI, coming up with quantum, or coming up with just how do different accelerators go
together. It's our DNA to answer the question of what is the future. Isn't it a perfect problem for
IBM because you kind of need to have a legacy
of building stuff. Yes.
Building actual
physical machines.
Yeah, it's why I came to IBM.
I wanted the experience,
the culture of
building hard things
that others have not done before.
Where do you imagine
we are in the timeline of this technology?
There will come a point
when it will mature.
My cell phone
is a mature technology at this point.
How far are we from that point with quantum?
By 2029, we'll build the first fault-tolerant quantum computer.
That is one that can run a very, very large, large problem.
To learn how IBM is building the future of computing, visit IBM.com slash quantum.
Want to earn extra income for your business?
Amazon Hub delivery is looking for ambitious business owners to assist with local deliveries.
When you become a partner, you and your staff will deliver packages to customers in your area
on a schedule that works for you.
With each package delivered,
you'll gain extra income
and exposure for your business.
Plus, Amazon Hub Delivery
makes it easy to get started.
There's no upfront costs,
delivery experience,
or long-term contracts required.
Sign up to learn more
at Amazon.com slash hub delivery.
That's Amazon.com slash HUB delivery.
Hey, it's Ryan Sechrest for Albertsons
and Safeway.
It's stock-up savings time
now through March 31st.
Spring in for store-wide deals
and earn four times the points.
Look for in-store tags
to earn on eligible items from Celsius,
body armor, aura, Ida,
silk, Capri-San, Bavarian Meets, and Charmin.
Then clip the offer in the app
for automatic event-long savings.
Stack up those rewards to save even more.
Enjoy savings on top of savings
when you shop in-store
or online for easy drive-up
and go pick up or delivery.
Restrictions apply.
See website for full terms and conditions.
You're listening to...
What are we waiting for?
What are you waiting for?
One, two, ready, go.
Action!
with Gary Culper.
Dun-na-na-da-da-no.
And that's my rush, and
they have kept their word.
They are not touring still, and I don't think they're going to.
I know they did some sort of,
for the guy who died from the drummer,
I forgot which group for a second,
and they played for a couple of.
songs but I don't think Russia is going to tour again. My only other concert of
yes the year that I'm going to see is the Eagles in the sphere in Vegas. I'm going to do
that in the next couple of months when I've got a free weekend which frankly I do not have.
So I spend my weekends up in the Northeast. Global warming for those people out there, you can kiss
mine. I am in Florida. They had snow in the panhandle. I am right now just putting into my Orlando weather.
Oh, it's 50 degrees and it's going to be a lower 39 tonight. Oh, but Gary, it's climate change.
This is extreme weather. Yeah, sure, right. Have a nice life, Al Gore and.
whatever name is.
In the news, the mucky mucks are in Davos, Switzerland, currently.
It is the Davos get-together of all the big-time people.
They're pissed off that Trump won.
One of the people came up there, you know, in climate change and this and that.
There's like 300 private jets parked.
I guess it's Davos Airport.
Private jets.
They wouldn't take Swiss air and fly into Zurich and take a car.
Private jets.
One flight of a private jet is like, I don't know, 100 of us driving all year.
Maybe a thousand of us.
Maybe 10,000 of us for all I know.
So we don't pay attention to these people that are worth billions.
And look at us as peasants.
to be manipulated by their idiocy and their money-making ways.
And I'm not saying they're not good people.
Some aren't good people there.
But I was looking at listen to some dofus today.
Boy, by the way, if you've never been to Davos, I recommend it highly.
I've been to Switzerland only once and I traversed a lot of it in a car with my family.
I'm one of these people that just loves stopping and looking.
and like around every corner was just a valley with mountains that was just fabulous.
Fabulous.
My favorite place was Lucerne.
Man, was that beautiful.
Oh, interlock in we went to also.
You know what?
I take up everything.
It's insanely beautiful there, but insanely expensive.
No, really.
The $40 hamburger, I think my son had an $8 Coke.
And we went to a Burger King in Switzerland.
The Whopper was 11, 11 euros, which at the time was $12.5.
But it was great.
Had a great time.
In other news, well, again, the big thing, I'm getting a lot of people contacting me about how the market is.
has to soar because of President Trump.
No, it doesn't.
Just remember that.
We're not saying it isn't going to soar.
I urge everyone.
Just pay attention to the market.
It factors in so much stuff,
and you also have to remember there's something else.
We're trading it like 25.
times earnings, 25 times earnings, when normally the market's like 17, and that 17 is on the
high side. I urge you to recognize that, that if the market decides to go into a bare market
in spite of or regardless of or whatever, it will. So we will be paying attention at all times.
I love the potential for lower taxes.
Janet Yellen said tax cuts are the problem.
She's gone.
She'll be getting quarter million dollars to do speeches to Wall Street now
and say absolutely freaking nothing.
I'd have to pay somebody a hundred bucks to do a speech.
I love they are going to attack regulations and the size of government, which has to be done.
All these potentially unleash.
We're hearing about $500 billion investment in AI.
That's what the number they came with.
That's huge.
And if there's more, terrific.
but I'm always wary of those type of numbers.
Always, we'll see what happens.
One would think if he gets all that done, good news.
I do not believe there's going to be massive tariffs, but if there is, look out.
If I had the president's ear, I would be.
be saying to him, be careful what you wish for.
You cannot tariff your way to wealth.
You can tariff your way to negotiate.
But if you think you can do massive tariffs back and forth and have them sit there,
here comes the shortages.
Here comes potential inflation.
and then what?
And how do we know this?
We're pretty darn smart at this.
You'll have a great evening.
Drive carefully.
And when you get home, do like we do, quite simple.
Make sure you hug your family.
Make sure you hug your children.
They will feel better.
You'll feel better.
I just want to let you know,
Winston's been sitting here the whole time during this show
and hasn't set a peep.
Have a great one, everybody.
Same time tomorrow.
Good night.
This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult,
on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryKK.com.
That's GaryKK.com.
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