Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - AI REDUX [08.17.2026]

Episode Date: August 17, 2026

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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Coltbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum. You're here. Today, glad you're here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening.

It's August 17, 2006. It's a Monday. I'm here in Central Florida. I believe it's like 110. degrees feels like. Those that know me know I love hot weather. It's hot. I also have to mention my home away from home, Hawaii,

was hit with a hurricane, and I was looking at a video of Rainbow Falls that I've swam in and is turned into a deluge of water rushing through on Hilo, at Hilo on the Big Island. I always stayed on the northeast side, not Hilo, the southeast, but really bad. A lot of bridges out, a lot of roads out. People very much affected by it. You know, we always say here in Florida, when a hurricane's come and get the hell out of the way,

they can't do that in Hawaii. And we just wish them all the best. I love the people of all of Hawaii. I've been to every island. And, man, I cannot imagine what they are going through right now. You can go look at the videos up on anywhere on the web. Anyway, wishing them all the. best. Hey, in case you don't know, this is serious talk on everything that affects you.

As you know, we will do the markets, the economy, your job, your industry, the Morlocks, the Morlock's in D.C., and the King Morlock was out and droves on the weekend. I'm speechless when it comes to the King Morlock out there. I'm just going to say I'm embarrassed that this guy is running this country and puts out things on social media that just make you want to cringe. I have friends that are pure MAGA and love him that are cringing themselves. and the one that sticks out like a sore thumb was North Korea versus South Korea.

Oh, I'm very good friends with Kim Jong-un of North Korea, and because I am, I'm going to pull our military, a bunch of it out of South Korea. Kim Jong-un has murdered his own family with Hellfire missiles. Do you know what Hellfire missiles? missiles are. Go look it up. Kim Jong-un, it is a known fact that in North Korea, the average height of a North Korean is like one, two, three inches, what it's supposed to be because of how

starved the people are there. During an assembly, somebody fell asleep and he murdered that person because they fell asleep. But our King Morlock, I'm very good friends with him, and we get along so well, I don't even know what to say. But we move on. Lots to cover. If you do not get this radio show in your city,

we'll post it at garyk.com. We'll post it on our X feed. Also, and if you don't follow us on X, just put our name in. if you'd like to email us, just be nice and respectful. We'll always be nice and respectful back unless you like Hamas or you're a racist and you like terrorists or you robbed a bank today and all that crap. I was at the Atlantis Hotel in the Bahamas with the family this weekend and wasn't busy. in my estimation. And I asked some people

and still plenty of people there, but I've seen it very, very busy. Just letting you know, I must tell you that $10.95 for a small bag of chips in the store. Just prices, same with the airports. I have this line,

The airports just hate us. The prices we pay at airports for things, $12 for a turkey sandwich at the store, right? Five bucks for a soda or somewhere around there. Why do they hate us so much, the airports? Oh, that's right, because they know we're there and they have us by the you-know-wats. I don't know. If I had a place in the airport, I would charge normal. But what the hell do I know?

Anyway, had a great time. Weather was good. Went down the big slides. They got the slides that go straight down and you run through the sharks at the bottom. And that was terrific. The casino did not treat me very well. I had the best cards I've ever had at Blackjack. And she kicked my butt.

I can't tell you how many times I got beat with a 20 and a 19. And how many times I had 21 and she pulled the 21. And then I went to Baccarat and I couldn't get a run worth my life. The good news is I'm very disciplined. And when it ain't working, I'm out of there. So it didn't lose too much. But how the best, blast, if you ever having a chance. And there's also this Baja Mar down there that's really.

nice also. The people there, terrific. Very easy to get there from anywhere in the U.S., NASA. Just let you know. And as you know, I had travel hell on the way there. Thank you, American Airlines. Anyway, I'm going to spend a few minutes and it's going to sound like it's boring. I can promise you it's not. There are defining forces in the markets. You know that, right? Earnings, the growth of earnings, the growth of sales, the longer they grow, the better, the stronger they grow the better.

Earnings and sales that are down, going to get penalized. Companies with no sales that go on a rampage to the upside will always crash. Eventually, we've proven that time and time again. Every now and then you get crazy momentum and a ton of crap, and we've seen that plenty throughout the easy money history that we've had over the years, brought to you by the wonderful people running the central banks into the grounds, enabling massive amounts of debt and deficits. And then there's something called the velocity of money. and it's measured in certain ways with the Ms. You can look it up, M2, M3, M8, whatever, M8, 667. And then there's what the central bank does.

And as you know, we thought J. Powell was the worst central banker ever by miles for what he did with printing money up to $9 trillion. bucks and taking that money and interfering with the biggest market in the world are bond market, which created massive distortions and of course the inflation. And then there are yields. The free market of yields, well, they're supposed to be free. Jay Powell would not let them be free. And that's how you ended up with your 3% and lower mortgages. Just so you know, that did not happen because of a free market. It happened because of the whims of one person because of COVID this and COVID that. But during that time, we told you, it's ridiculous that he's doing these things. Because when we open up, everything's going to be fine again once we open up. And then we opened up

and he still sat there with the ridiculous easy money and the money printing. And not until the inflation came about. Did he finally, after he, Janet Yellen, that other. and Joe Biden said it was all transitory. Don't worry about the inflation. They were forced into changing their stance after controlling yields. Well, they're no longer printing money to buy up bonds anymore. So yields are on their own. Up next, want you to listen carefully. This is the one Investors Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the

assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, will carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-2-5-59. That's 885-59.

That's 888-4-2-2-5-5-9. Investment Advisory Services offered through call-bomb Capital Manor. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum.

It doesn't get better than this. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. So let me explain something to you very importantly. Bond market and yields. As bonds go up and price yields come down. as bonds come down and price yields go up. Simple as that in real time. And what do yields signify?

Thought. If yields go up a lot on a company, corporate bond, it means that the investors don't trust the company as much as another company with lower yields. It doesn't mean the end of the world. I remember years ago, I did very well with bonds of Sprint. And at the time, Sprint was paying 6 and 7 percent. I got some 7 percenters while the average corporate bond in the realm was like 4.5 percent.

And why did I get 6 and a half, 7 percent and a little bit more? Because there was worry about Sprint that they had too much debt. and they did. And the business, because of that debt, what would occur? We would only buy bonds that were out, going out two, three years. We didn't want to own 30 a year because we did not know, but we also thought, wait a minute. There's no way, sprints going under. Look what they have.

Worst case scenario is bought. and as you know, we took a little bit of a shot there, and not really a shot. We knew. And then there's yields on the government, the government. What parts of government? Well, you can get municipal bonds on airports that are run by the government. Hospitals, not run by government. Any amount of things.

Sewers, water treatments, things like that. And then you have government bonds, you know, the bonds you buy from the government that the full faith in credit back them up. And you can never have to worry about them, right? Except we're now at 40 trillion of debt and running 2.2 trillion this year in deficit. While we're in a golden age, of course, by the King Morlock. Anyway, yields, what do they signify? Well, it's when you get a mortgage on a home, they'll be attached to it,

meaning as yields go up, your mortgage yield will go up also, specifically off of the 10-year yield, which I quote all the time. But then there's the 30-year bond, and you can go up and down the curve from one, up to 30. The bottom line is, if yields go up, the cost of money goes up. The cost to borrow goes up. Remember, all these companies go into the market issuing bonds, and if yields are going up, they have to compete with other bonds, and they have to pay a little bit more or a lot more. And then when you get a mortgage, well, when J-Pow was interfering with the bond market, you would

getting a 3% mortgage, but now it's like 6.5.7. Now you may say, well, wait a minute, J-Pel, what a great guy was. No, because the savers at the time that was supposed to get 3.5% got zero. And of course, the distortions in the housing market, which made housing unaffordable. So double-edged sword, as they say. Anyway, yields. What about yields and the stock market? Well, as I just said, the cost of money goes up, and that's a component. I don't know what the percentages. It's a component of what companies have to do. If yields go up, they have to pay more.

That eats into profits a little bit. The market's in recognition of that. But also, what do we always talk about, easy money? The Fed printed money, market soared. The Fed stopped market came down. the Fed Titan market went down. That's how it pretty much works. Not in the perfect line, not on a day-to-day basis,

but the easy money versus tight money does matter to markets and the economy and you getting a mortgage or a car loan or a new credit card, though credit cards, I mean they're like the Gambino's and the Gaudies. what they charge, but I get it. They kind of have to based on how many people don't pay. They got to cover their, you know what. So we're always watching yields.

And we're just here to report to you that the 30-year yield has hit a 20-year high. Close today at 5.309%. Now, what's interesting is yields are going up even though the rate of inflation has been reportedly been coming down. So that's kind of what they call counterintuitive, I believe. Yields. And then there's the 10-year yield. For me, that's Muay and Portante.

The 10-year yield. That today was up. 0.28, hit 4.724, a stone's throwaway of the yearly high, which was just two weeks ago after. falling back. And if you go on the weekly, you are getting close to the high of January of 25 and October of 23. Just letting you know. And we're not saying the world is going to end if yields keep going higher. What we are going to say is that it is definitively something to watch. If yields go above, let's call it 5%, which was October of 23.

We're talking about getting into the realm of 2007, 19-year high. That's the cost of money. Mortgages, loans of different stripes. Just let you know. For the markets, I'm going to use the word potential. potentially will provide headwinds for certain areas of the market. Simple as that. What has my interest is that yields are going up while the rate of inflation has been better. Not prices. Prices go up and down, mostly up. And up next.

The AI semi-conductor day on Investors' Edge. You're listening to America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended.

You're going to feel better if you talk to him. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I want to thank Adam for helping out last week during my travel hell. A few tidbits before the market. I believe Reddit was added to some index on Friday. Gave mostly back today. What do we always warn you about? When things get added to an index, do not jump all over it.

Normally, they will retrace. Normally, not all the time. We try to put a little bit of odds in our favor. Just letting you know. Of note. So what did we mention about? yields. Oh, they're going higher. Guess what area of the market got hit the hardest today?

The consumer. Oh, gee. Why would that be? Retail. As I have stated for you, retail, there have been a few stocks that have been strong, but just a handful. Well, I can tell you the market has lost some of that handful. Tapestry just gagged. Raw stores just topped out.

Ralph Lauren just topped out. Burlington. breaks out, fails, and now breaking down. Very bad day for retail. Do you know what else? Airlines. You know what else? Hotels.

You know what else? Expedia was down 15 bucks today. Booking Holdings down 7, Airbnb down 5. Hmm. Restaurants had a rough day today. What are they all have in common? Oh, that's right. They're consumer-oriented.

What's going on with yields? Oh, they're going higher. Housing and housing related had a rough day. Why would that be? Oh, that's right. Interest rates go and higher. Thus, we say to you, we really have to watch these yields right here. And we're not predicting anything.

We're making note that yields are in a bull market. The bond market's in a bear market. But it's different than individual stock. of course. They don't move as much. I'm just letting you know yields, trend is up, and we don't want it going up much more than here. We think there's a chance, a good chance it'll provide headwinds for these areas we just mentioned for you or to you. And there'll be other things, not all financials. There's a rule of thumb that banks will actually do okay if yields go higher and short-term rates stay the same because that is, you know, they get to lend at higher yields. The question is,

will the Fed do something about that? You see, what have we told you? The central bank, if they listen to us, would never get in trouble. They would just do what the market says and stay maybe a point below the 10-year yield, or three-quarters of a point. And right now, the 10-year yield, it's 4-725. They're at three and a half, so they're probably a little behind. But what happens if we go to 5% and 5 and a quarter and 5.5? The Fed's going to have to tighten. And that means that the president will be calling the head of the central bank,

the guy he nominated a moron and an imbecile and an ass clown and all that stuff, like he did with Jay Powell. Anyway, we're watching this very, very, very. very, very closely. There is a pretty decent correlation, especially if yields, really jump. Right now they're going higher, trending higher. Put it in your file manager, front and center. What else today?

Well, the Dow was down 272. Insurance was weak, consumer staples were weak. Most of the financials on the weaker side, Goldman was up because when AI goes up, Goldman has that little component. Restaurants week, economically sensitive week. But what stuck out, defense pulled back after a good week. What stuck out for me was the consumer oriented, but the other part was they jumped the semis and AI. The semiconductor, the socks, I believe, was up 250 right near the open.

only finished up 203, but still a good 203. And the memory and the data storage and all that crap had a very good day. A lot still below the 50-day moving average, but things that jumped, micron up 39, I'm including aftermarket, sand disk up 143, $1,700 stock. As you know, they had Investor Day on Thursday, and whatever the, the hell they said. The market obviously likes. Seriously. SeaGate 20, Western Digital 25. You know that fix up 100 today. It's an $1,800 stock, but still up 100. The ASML 35, Amat 26, after dropping 30 on Friday on earnings. Just a good day for artificial

intelligence, semiconductor names, with some warts. But the Dow is down 272, and that includes Caterpillar and Goldman Sachs being up about 200 Dow points. As you know, they are the highest price by far and mui importante. But also in the Dow, I have to mention this, Nike, down above. 64 to about 39 bucks. First off, they need to take Nike out of the doubt. Nike just broke below. First off, it's been a brutal bear market.

And for the last, I'll call it five months, been trading between 40 and 42 bucks, with a high of 44 one time, but mostly 40, 42, 43, broke it today on very heavy volume. By the way, if you want to see what a classic bear market looks like, go look at Nike. And they need to take it out of the Dow because it's meaningless. If Nike went to zero today, let's use 40 bucks.

Four times six is 20. The Dow would drop 260 points if it went to zero. If Goldman Sachs went to zero today, be 6,600 Dow points. Thus, we always accentuate the highest price names. But something stuck out today, kids. Microsoft down 15 bucks. Topped out for now. Went up on earnings, got a little more, broke above the big 500 number and just miserably failed that today.

What else? Apple down again today. It better not break the $300 mark. as you know Apple Gapped down on its earnings report and has done nothing good ever since and just a lot of Dow stocks week Sherwin Williams what we mentioned to you housing housing related that was down nine

Traveler 6 United Health 6 that group looks topped Visa 5 but why would Visa go down oh oh that's right it's financial oh that's right interest rates are up. Anyway, just letting you know. Dow roughed up. The S&P down 40. NASDAQ finished down 804, NASDAQ 100, down 50.

NASDAQ 100 was much better than everything all day to day because of the semiconductors and the artificial intelligence plays. That needs to continue because I will tell you other areas, not very good. today. Software pulled back, but I can't be bearish on the good software yet. I would call that a normal pullback. Just as I stated, I'm paying quite the attention to yields. If the 10-year yield starts heading toward 5%, my ears will be perking up. My eyes will be winding. My eyes will be wider open. Considering the fact that yields would be doing that, along with very big bullish numbers and

very low bearish numbers, stay on watch. Stay on watch. Oil prices up another two and change today. You know those reasons. Hey, up next, this, that, and the other thing, this is the one only investors edge. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for?

One, two, ready, go. Inversters Edge with Gary Culper. And welcome once again to Investor's Edge. Da-da-na. You know, I am the reigning champ of the Couch Potato Football League, my fantasy football league. We're very serious about what we do. And I got to tell you, I've never.

studied so much my fantasy football. Our draft is in, I think, September 8th, the week that the NFL starts. Boy, am I into it this year. I am the number five pick out of 10. I think there's four unbelievable picks off a little bit. I'm going to end up taking Jonathan Taylor at number five and I'm hoping to get another good running back at number 15 which I'm pretty sure I will I think Derek Henry everybody's worried about being too old no I would take him at 15 that'll be my first two and at number three I'm going to decide on quarterback or my first receiver which should be Olave from New Orleans who helped me to win last year of course we have We have a preseason to watch, but most of the players don't play that much.

This week, just so you know, before the open tomorrow's Home Depot, I've been visiting a couple here. Business is okay. It's not strong. It's not weak. It's okay. Small sampling, but I think a pretty good sampling. No, it's a small sampling.

Home Depot tomorrow. On Wednesday, Lowe's, Target, TJX, raw stores later in the week, so is Walmart, and BJ's wholesale, and the buckle. So a bunch of retail this week. And we'll get an idea. I always want to hear about guidance and comps and all that crap. Other names reporting this week of import. Let's see, you got Baidu from China. Symbol Keys, key site.

This has been a strong name. Toll Brothers in Home Building. Estee Lauder. Viking. That's the ships. It's been the stronger name of the group but broke down on Friday. Alibaba, another China name.

Netiz, another China name. Deer. Quiet week. I only have this week one and a half pages of earnings. In recent weeks, it was 12, 13, 14 pages, and I got to tell you, it was tough to keep up. Now, something I want to address, I'm hearing a lot of people on TV saying it's the best earnings we have ever seen year over year. well they're right but I want to let you know it's concentrated the great earnings are not broad-based it's concentrated not to say that you don't have decent earnings across the board but the great earnings everybody's talking about well when you have multi-thousand-sgrowth in sand disk that

gets averaged out as well as other names in that memory space, which by the way, will not be able to keep up. I just want to make sure you know that because if the market decides to turn down, it will turn down on the best earnings reports. We're not saying it's going to. That is not a prediction. Don't put words on our mouth. But we are stating for the record, the best stocks will top out on their best earnings reports. I want to make sure you know that. Mui importante. Did I say that twice? I don't even know any Spanish. I had six years of Spanish. And you know what I got to do? I promised myself for two years. I'm going to take one of those things they have. They've got these courses that supposedly you learn quickly. You got to apply

yourself. I want to do Spanish, Italian, and French. And I've been promising myself for two years and still haven't done it. I've got to get on that, as well as guitar lessons. Anyway, I think we could be at some crossroad if yields keep going up. And for the record, based on the rate of inflation, coming down, I'm actually on the surprise side. So is the market finally looking at the maniacs in DC? These ingrates with $2.2 trillion deficit this year? 40 trillion of debt. By the way, we're going to quickly go to 50.

Is that what the market's doing? I don't know. What we do know is trend up on yields. And I think it's something to watch. You know, at the outset, I talked about the King Morlock. I do not want my president saying, we control the Strait of Hormuz when we don't. I don't want him saying I will bomb the S out of Oman if they interfere with us. I don't want him saying that we can make the Strait of Hormuz a territory, United States, when we cannot.

They're laughing at him across the world right now. They're absolutely, and Iran is having a blast. And I don't take any joy in saying it. I want his success. And then he goes and takes North Korea's side over South Korea. And let me be clear, that's exactly what he did. and saying this prick of a animal, Kim Jong-Ir. There's a good friend of mine.

We get along, and because of that, I can't tell you how nauseating that is. I'm worried. He has nothing to lose. You have a great evening, drive carefully when you get home, do like we do. Make sure you hug your family, hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better.

I promise they will be well. Until tomorrow. Peace out all. Good night. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryKK.com.