Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - AI SEMIS [07.28.2025]

Episode Date: July 28, 2025

https://garykaltbaum.com/

At CVS, it matters that we're not just in your community, but that we're part of it. It matters that we're here for you when you need us, day or night, and we want everyone to feel welcomed and rewarded. It matters that CVS is here to fill your prescriptions and here to fill your craving for a tasty and, yeah, healthy snack. At CBS, we're proud to serve your community because we believe where you get your medicine matters. So visit us at cbs.com or just come by store. We can't wait to meet you. Store hours vary by location. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum,

your host. A thanks of being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. We're nearing the end of July. It's the 28th, 2025, 30 days, half September, April, June, November, so we have 31 days in July. See how I figure these little things out. And in case you don't know, serious talk on everything that affects you. Markets, economy, your job, your industry, trade deals. And we will tell you about them without any bias, agenda, or ulterior motive, the good and maybe not so good. Don't be mad about us telling the truth.

We'll do scams and shams and corruption and you name it. We'll cover it. And if you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com. We'll post it on our X feed. And if you don't follow us on X, you should. Just put my name in. We'll post it on the podcast apps. And if you'd like to email me, just be nice.

Don't be like the guy on Twitter. that engaged me and then basically called me a Jew that wants only cares about money without using the Jew word don't you love people you know as Jews all we care about is money right how'd they know

we have lots to cover the indices uneventful but underneath the surface eventful first few things I do want to cover. Do you know who Ichiro is, the baseball player? Ichiro Suzuki went into the Hall of Fame this weekend. A fantastic player. Go watch his speech. Go watch his speech. If you would like to find out the ingredients, the ingredients,

for success in one speech, just put into the Hall of Fame, by the way, go check it out. I was inspired. I absolutely loved it. By the way, in Seattle, let's see, years in a row hits 242, 208, 212, 262, 206, 224, 238, 2.13, 225, 214. Then it looks like he played, then 184, then 178, and then he played not total seasons the rest of the way. He played for the Yankees a few seasons. Still about at 322 one year. And I believe he played from Miami for a couple of seasons towards the end of his career.

But besides the point, go watch the speech. I repeat, if you'd like to know the ingredients to see, success or being a success, which there's no guarantees by watching a speech. But if you'd like to be inspired, if you'd like to learn about somebody's mentality, go check it out. That's number one. Number two. So a few things.

As you know, we have absolutely no bias whatsoever. Absolutely no bias. Do you remember when Janet Yellen called for a world tax and we ripped the stuffings out of her on that? A world tax? The President Trump has said he's considering a world tariff of 15 to 20%. So let me just rip the stuffings out of that too. Fair enough? You all guys emailed me on Janet Yellen, pissed off and mad at her.

You're going to pissed off and mad at Trump for, for content. considering a world tariff of 15 to 20%, which is a tax? By the way, we're about to compliment him too. Anyway, I had to let you know that. But he did a European Union deal. A deal has been cut. And I'm not going to get into the innards of the deal. But let me tell you what I like about it.

you know sometimes how something is looked how something is thought about means more than the something and without even getting into the innards of the deal because I saw some people on the left pick it apart and people on the right oh it's the greatest thing we're not even to get into that I loved that it felt like, it looked like it was, our president of this United States, was controlling the conversation, leading. And when you have been just coming off of, in a bisbalm four years of the worst leader, we have had in God knows how long

what a differential and you can say what you want about Trump and again the left's going to rip him no matter what the right's going to kiss his butt no matter what I'm just letting you know how it looked it just looked

like somebody who was driving the bus and when you're president in the United States I think that counts for a hell of a lot on the European deal. Just my thought. Now, let's go to the Japan deal.

We told you there was something not right with the deal. Japan's not given us $500 billion to invest. No way! The president said they were. It's a loan at full market interest rate prices. 99% of it. Just let you know. But you know what the best thing is?

Whatever reasoning the president has, the tariffs are coming down, except for he's considering a world tariff. Let's see what happens when that time comes. We'll talk about it if and when. But the tariffs have been coming down. As I said to you, and I believe we're. right. What matters most is not trade deals. We have trade deals with these countries. Just so, you know, the Europe tariff is really not even moving. They promised to do buying, but I got news for you. Go back in history about promises of countries to do this, that, and the other thing with us. And usually it's, and if this is not on Trump, 25%, percent. And they know Trump is gone in three and a half, not eight or seven and a half.

So less than meet the eye, but most importantly, and as I have told you, and I love the fact for whatever the reason is, the tariffs are coming down, and that is a big help. And as I have said to you, 10% tariffs I don't want. But if you're going to have them, 10%. fine why they're worked around

they're negotiated they're easily to cheat on so I'm going to call that a no biggie that we have these tens and 15s with these countries China's up next it'll be another quote unquote

massive deal but I don't care I don't care if Trump lies about all the deals. What I care most are those tariffs are coming down to nominal numbers that again can be worked around, negotiated, or cheated on. And that's that. That's my take on the whole thing. I applaud the president for appearances. And what a stark contrast between the corrupt nun skull that is gone and this.

Up next, markets, lots to say. This is the one only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals.

Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-22-55-9. That's 888-4-2-2-5-5-9. That's 888-4-2-2-5-5-9. Investment Advisory Services offered through call-bomb capital management. Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions

you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomachache every time that I eat and it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just have a stomachache every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication.

We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeart Radio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. Struggling to see up close, make it visible with Viz. Viz is a once daily prescription eye drop to treat blurry near vision for up to 10 hours. The most common side effects that may be experienced while using Viz include eye irritation, temporary, dimmer, dark vision, headaches and eye redness.

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Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by On-Dec or Celtic Bank. On-Dec does not lend in North Dakota all loans and amounts subject to lender approval. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun.

Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. with Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. By the way, on the Europe deal, you know, I don't know how long it took whatever, but he was there with the head of the European Union.

And I'm never impressed with any of those people running the European Union or the world organization, all that crap. I was a little impressed with the woman. I was a little impressed with her. And of course, we'll see how it plays out. So next thing I want to bring up, we're going into the markets. And something that may put you to sleep. At least my Neil Cavuto used to say, don't talk about the dollar.

We'll lose viewers. So we never used to really talk about the dollar unless you really had to. So I just want to let you know the dollar against other currencies. which had gone through a bearish phase starting with December of last year. Hit a low in April, rallied up to the declining 50-day moving average. What do we tell you? Bare markets are when price descends below a descending 50-day moving average, and after it tagged it to the penny, drop back down to mid-Jew.

but never broke that first low in April, rallied back up to the 50 day, and failed again to the day, and came back down, undercut that first low by a smidge, rallied back up to the 50 day, came back down, and held the lows for the third time, and now for the first time, with some umph, O-O-O-O-M-P-H, the dollar has rallied back above that 50-day moving average to the point where you can draw line under the lows of April, under the lows of end of June, end of July, and under the lows of last week, and now the potential

of turning up versus other currencies, a stronger dollar. Now, what could that mean? So I'm going to put a few things out here because there's no definites. We're going to watch. Number one, a strong dollar is usually a negative for commodities, because commodities are priced in dollars. and if it costs more for them, and that includes gold. And gold looked pretty good five days ago,

and then the dollar came in, and gold is sank, below the 50 day, but still in a range going back 14 weeks now. That's to be watched. Will gold move higher even with a stronger dollar? There's always that potential. we'll see that's number one number two a stronger dollar potentially hurts our multinationals doing business over there why what I'm gonna do for you right now is do word for word why does a strong dollar hurt are multinationals

are multinationals. American products become more expensive for foreign buyers around the world when the dollar strengthens, potentially reducing demand and market share abroad. This hurts exporters, meaning us, and domestic companies' foreign operations. That's why.

Why do, I'm doing this by the book, commodities go down when the dollar goes up. Look at me. A weaker U.S. dollar reduces global purchasing power and raises import costs. A stronger dollar increases global purchasing power and raises export costs. It often, you get my point. What is the correlation between commodities and dollar? commodity prices move inversely with the U.S. dollar.

In commodity price booms, the U.S. dollar typically depreciated. When commodity prices fell, the value of the dollar tended to rise. That's all. That's all. So a little bit of definition for you. And we're going to watch closely. Why? Because we've had a very weak dollar for about seven months now.

And notwithstanding the tariff crash because of Trump, the market's done pretty well off of a weak dollar. Will the market swoon if the dollar get strong? It's a darn good question. And remember, we believe that drop would have never happened to the tune of what the drop was, if not for the ridiculous tariffs. We think the S&P probably would have hit a low at around 50, and never went down to 4835.

We think it would have been a regular correction. Then Trump decided $145 on China, 50 here, 75 there. Vietnam. What was that? Like 100? And we have a surplus with them, I believe. So anyway, that is going to be something very much to watch. Put that down in your little notebook.

Gary says there is a chance, not 100%, technically the dollar looks like it's got a good chance of bottoming and starting to ascend versus other currencies, which means flying over to Europe will be cheaper. Flying over here from Europe will be more expensive. When I went to London, the boy, the pound was expensive versus a couple of years back. So I wanted to start with the dollar because potential for cause and effect. potential. Next, the AI semiconductor trade. All I can tell you,

Nvidia finished at another high today. Broadcom finished at another high. AMD finished at another relative high, not the high. Kind of sort of those are the three. Arm, close, but they report in two days. Oh, Taiwan semi was down today after getting near the highs, but there was some news on them, but still in pretty good shape. So we're just letting you know the artificial intelligence semiconductor trade damn good this second. And I must tell you, better than I thought it would be. Remember what I said about invidia, the breakout that we did.

not think it would be nearly as good as the one we had January 8th of 2024 because how much bigger the company is? Well, it broke out at 153. It's 176. Four weeks later, you add it up. Up next, more on the markets. And whatever else, I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge.

Hi, I'm Dr. J. Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down, with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomach ache every time that I eat and it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh yeah, you know, I just I have a stomach kick every day, or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with.

So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeartRadio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. Struggling to see up close, make it visible with Viz.

Viz is a once daily prescription eye drop to treat blurry near vision for up to 10 hours. The most common side effects that may be experienced while using Viz include eye irritation, temporary dim or dark vision, headaches and eye redness. Talk to an eye doctor to learn if Viz is right for you. Learn more at Viz.com. Cashflow crunch? On-deck's small business line of credit gives your business immediate access to funds up to $200,000, right when you need it. Cover seasonal dips, manage payroll, restock inventory, or tackle unexpected expenses without missing a beat with flexible draws, transparent pricing, and control over repayment. Get funded quickly and confidently. Apply today at on deck.com. Funds could be available as soon as tomorrow. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by On Deck or Celtic Bank. On Deck does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amount subject to lender approval.

He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. Welcome once again to Investor's Edge. You see, you're all professional wrestling fans, aren't you?

I got dozens of contacts and reactions on Hulk Hogan. Terry Bole is passing. Big time. Yeah, we knew. You guys love professional. wrestling. Okay, so we did the dollar. We don't know the repercussions yet, but today the dollar affected gold came down. I think it affected the financials a wee bit, but not much, affected the commodities, coal and steel and copper and aluminum came in, and it's something to watch.

and if you want to watch it, go look at the UUP, and you will note you can draw a line under April, a line under June July right at the end and beginning, and last week, and now potentially turning up. If you want to look at the other way, go look at the FXE. That would be the Euro. Go look at the FXB. That would be the pound that is already busting down. darn it, right after I leave London. Go look at the yen, FXY, and that's been breaking down for a while.

Go look at the Australian dollar, which is FXA. You get the point. And again, we're going to watch cause and effect, because currencies matter, especially when they make big moves. which was, by the way, January till the recent lows. And again, we don't usually talk the dollar, but we do think it's of note at this juncture. Next, the VIX.

We don't usually talk the VIX very much. That is the volatility index. When things are complacent, it's very low, when the things go ape crap that's very high like liberation crash the tariff crash

and the like we'll let you know it's down to very very very complacent very very and even a correction to the upside probably brings the market in some.

That's all. Not going to say anything more than that. The S&P and the NASDAQ and the NASDAQ 100 have rode up, not the 50 day, but the 21 day since April 23rd, with not one close below the 21 day. Now, the explanation of the 21 versus the 50, well the 21 means you're stronger because you are only using the last 21 days add up the closes divide by 21 you come out with a smoothed out number versus the other which is the 50 day so it is going to be slower will absolutely positively be watching that but also know the influence I think right now eight to 10 names make up 50 some odd percent of the NASDAQ 100.

Eight names make up like 30 some odd percent of the S&P, and guess which names those are? Oh, and by the way, Apple's been weak, and that I believe is number two right now, maybe still number one. So we'll be watching that also. Watch the VIX, symbol VIX. There's another one, the VXN. And again, it just measures complacency versus people crapping in their pants. When that's occurring, it goes straight up. Rocket ship. Dow was down 64 today. The S&P was up 1.

But the NASDAQ up 70, NASDAQ 100 up 84. The SOX was up 91. And very simply, AMD up 7, Broadcom, up 4 in change, Nvidia up 3 in change. Some of the weaker equipment makers were even up, gaped up on the day. I don't know if the trade deals is what did it. I really don't care. Leave no doubt the president's all in on AI. He held the confab last week on that. Other things I'm noticing, I'm just going to give you some symbols.

OLLI, Ali's bargain. What do they do? Oh, they're a discounter. That edges into new highs, but earnings a whopping 3%. Five below, what do they do? Oh, yes, they are a discounter. That edges into new highs. So a couple of discounters, and I'd like to mention dollar tree and dollar general

because they're at, well, dollar trees at new yearly highs, but I do have to full and fair disclosure. It topped out in 22 at 177. It's still 115. But it's at yearly high. So you got some discounters doing the trick. I'll throw a couple of more in retail boot barn, but they report in three days, so it doesn't matter.

Ralph Lauren has been on the strong side. Housing. Remember, looks like they're going through maybe there's a bottoming process, but interest rates going up a little bit, they came back down, still acting okay. And housing related, not bad. No umph yet, but you got a chance. And I mentioned this on TV today.

If you get the book, The Secrets of Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets by Stan Weinstein, he does this stage analysis. Stage one is the bottoming phase. Maybe the dollar's doing that. Then you got 1A, 1B, 1B is late. in the bottoming phase. Then you get two, 2A, 2B. Once you get in 2B, you are in the ascending phase

and real good, 2A as you're starting it. Maybe the housing and housing related is trying to get into two. Not so sure you're there yet. Maybe. And somehow housing related

like William Sonoma restoration hardware. By the way, restoration hardware is numbers. But group moves are group moves. So a little bit of that also. But overall, it was an AI semiconductor day. And a couple of AI stocks also were on the move also. The warning shot, I think this is a good warning shot. Let's see. Tuesday after the close, Corning,

Merck in the Dow, Procter & Gamble in the Dow, Royal Caribbean, Spotify, United Health in the Dow, that's going to be interesting. How about UPS is reporting? How about after the closed tomorrow? Booking Holdings, the old price line, Ava's Budget, Cheesecake Factory, love the bang, bang chicken and shrimp,

Seagate Tech, Starbucks, I'm still worried about Starbucks. but we'll see Visa in the Dow Boeing in the Dow How about Wednesday before the open Garmin Checkpoint Software Ark Best

Harley Davidson Hershey's Humana Old Dominion freight How about a wing stop? Got to add that How about after the close arm holdings That is an AI semiconductor Carvanna eBay

Which had a very bad day today by the way. F5 Network's Lamb Research Meta, I don't know why they change a name, Microsoft and is in the Dow, Qualcomm, Robin Hood, Prudential, Western Digital, host hotels, and how about, oh, Alibaba in Allstate, and Skechers, how about Thursday before the open? Agco, Goose, that's Canada Goose,

How about Intercontinental Exchange? Mastercard, Roblox, ShakeShack, Masco, Colbert Kravis. How about after the closed Thursday? You ready for this? Amazon and Apple. KLA Tencore. Micro Strategy. Roku.

LPL Financial. That boot barn. I said warning shot, right? Hey, up next, this, that, and the other thing. This is the one only investors' edge. Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter.

In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist, Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomach ache every time that I eat. And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just have a stomachache every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you

should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change. change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeartRadio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts.

Struggling to see up close, make it visible with Viz. Viz is a once daily prescription eye drop to treat blurry near vision for up to 10 hours. The most common side effects that may be experienced while using Viz include eye irritation, temporary dimmer, dark vision, headaches and eye redness. Talk to an eye doctor to learn if Viz is right for you. Learn more at Viz.com. OnDEC is built to back small businesses like yours. Whether you're buying equipment, expanding your team, or bridging cash flow gaps, OnDex loans up to $400,000 help make it happen fast.

Rated A-plus by the Better Business Bureau and earning thousands of five-star trust-pilot reviews, On-Dec delivers funding you can count on. Apply in minutes at on-deck.com. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by On-Dec or Celtic Bank. On deck does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amount subject to lender approval. You're listening to What are we waiting for?

Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! In the Gester's Edge. With Gary Culpa. There was not much in the way of earnings this morning, so not much going on. Just a little bit in the news. Some I'm going to repeat, and some I have to bring

up. I know you've been reading in the news about famine in Gaza, Israel saying every time they drop food in there that Hamas steals it, Hamas, the CNN, New York Times says they're not, yet video of them taking all the food and everything. Just remember, ladies and gentlemen, the media hates Trump. So it doesn't matter what he does, it's bad. The media hates Israel. No matter what they do, it's bad. The media hates democracy. They really do.

They've proven it. They proved it when they covered up for Biden letting 10 million people in. They proved it when they covered it up. They proved it when they said Kamala Harris was not the border czar. They prove it all the time. I don't know where they come from, what they were taught, what they believed, because they're all making millions from capitalism and free speech, but they hate Israel. They'll kiss the ass of Castro. You remember Castro in Cuba?

They glamorize them. They absolutely glamorized Castro in Cuba. We want you to remember all this. because there are people that believe the media. They believe them. It's amazing to watch. It's stunning. We also want to remind you of op-eds, New York Times.

I was one of Biden's border advisors. Here's how to fix our immigration system. Imagine you hire a baseball player, and he bats 1.30 and has 15 errors in the first 15 games. Do you want them to write an op-ed on how to play baseball? Imagine you go to a doctor with a broken left arm and he puts a cast on your right arm. Do you want him to handle you going forward? Yet the New York Times let this smear's yike do that. And now this, how Democrats can win on immigration? From near a tandem,

this is a lifer Democrat and runs this center of American progress, this leftist, whatever, that gets croplodes of money. She was a domestic, one of the head domestic policy advisors to President Biden and she's got an op-ed on how to fix immigration while Trump already fixed immigration.

The border shut. Now we disagree. on the vetting part. They've got to do better. But we want to remind you, it's a nut house out there. It's an absolute nut house of reporting. And I want to make sure you know that.

They're letting failures tell you how to fix the things they failed on. With a straight face, the Marxist party is out this week saying, we need to message better. No, your policies suck. You can't go into a store, a drug store in New York City without everything being locked up. And security guards walking you around to pick up toothpaste.

They let the people running the colleges threaten Jews and their lives and their families and held them so they can't move, which is still going on. But you know the difference now? People are getting arrested. You're gone at jail. What a difference. Law and order. You know, I'm no biggie on Trump. But damn, did we dodge one? Getting rid of that corrupt slees Biden and Harris was going to be worse. They're telling you how to fix the border. when they failed while Trump has succeeded and saving lives to boot. The media has blacked it out. They're not talking about the border anymore. You know what they're talking about?

The people that are being deported, which by the way, I don't agree with all of it. So don't believe me. Watch. Because I got news for you. 2008's going to be a biggie. because they are lining up some Marxist communists to run the joint. You got one guy that's probably going to be the mayor of New York City, a freaking communist.

And they hate people. Their goal is to control people. You're just a means to the end. You're a nobody. They're going to tell you how much, when, where, how, and why. and if you don't like it, go screw. We want you to remember that. And what they complain about others is exactly who they are.

Control freaks. And when you have a chance, watch this guy in New York City, go look at his speeches and interviews from the past. You would think you were watching Lenin. And I hate saying this. I take no joy. But if this proliferates around the country, forget about it. And I say this again, I'm no big fan of this president.

I am a big fan of his immigration policy and few other things. But boy, oh boy, it is other things. We'll save that for tomorrow. That all said, you have a great evening drive carefully. Go look at those charts we talked about. and when you get home, do like we do, quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children.

They will feel better. You'll feel better. I promise they will be well. Until tomorrow. Peace out, all good night. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com.

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