Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - AI trade [02.24.2025]

Episode Date: February 24, 2025

https://garykaltbaum.com/

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Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host day. Thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It is Monday, February 24th, 2025. Hope you having a good day.

Hope you had a great weekend. I drove down to South Florida, did my accounting thing. It's quite interesting. Met with some college buddies, had a blast. And we are back at work today. Ladies and gentlemen, let me just on a personal note, today would have been my parents' 69th anniversary. My mom passed away Thanksgiving night,

I told you. 69th anniversary. Spoke to my father today at length. He's good. Brains functioning very well, complaining a lot, but also his body heading towards 94,

being roughed up a little bit, but he's being taken care of. And as you know, just about every weekend I am down there, would have been 69 years. Wow. Wow. Wow. But we have to segue from that. As always, serious talk on everything that affects you. We do the markets, the economy, your job, your industry. The Morlocks in D.C., the Doge, as we'll do the Doge moment in a few. The last administration, this administration, they're good, they're not so good. And anything else that affects you and your life, we will take care of and talk about.

But first, if you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com. We'll also post it on our Twitter feed, which is now X. And if you don't follow us, you should. We'll also post it on the podcast apps and all that crap. And if you'd like to email us, all you've got to do is be nice. Just be nice. Where do I want to start? I want to do the A-I trade.

Ladies and gentlemen, for quite a while, the talk of the artificial intelligence trade has pervaded Wall Street. And we have told you with some vim and vigor that just be careful, that we always worry about human nature. We have told you that human nature dictates when things are hot and things are going good, companies themselves will tend to do a lot more than they should be doing. And in the case of semiconductor chips, we can tell you throughout the decades, quite often you get what is called over ordering, double ordering, things like that. and when the demand does not come to fruition, you end up with a lot of stuff and you don't need to order more stuff. Or you build too much and you don't need what you were building or you promise too much and you have to roll that back.

In all those cases, the stocks that went topside went vertical because of all the noise and all the numbers pay a stiff penalty. and all we can tell you since a few Mondays ago, don't worry about reasons. It's a song by Earth, Wind, and Fire. Since that Monday, you had a big gap to the downside. For lack of a better word, it was like a crash, and you had some bouncing in there, meaning a stock would drop 30 bucks,

would rally up 10 to 15, and in some cases, they rallied up and got almost all of the drop back. But we're here to let you know that there's just a worsening and worsening and a worsening of the AI trade. From the building slash construction stocks, these are the ones that were going to build the data centers. These are the ones you had to own. And these are the ones that were really strong. things like symbol EME, which

gaped down from 530 down to 430 rallied up to 470 but is now 391 taking out the lows of that day or how about AGX another one infrastructure services

that dropped from like 180 to 126 bounced up to 168 it's back to 126 and then you have had, well, let's see, simple VRT, data centers. Well, the stock closed at 147, the next day was 97 bucks, rallied up to 126, it's now 91, breaking those lows. And may I state for the record, VRT was a stock you had to own. And then there was those energy companies, you know,

Symbols, C-E-G. Which was 352 at the close, and the next day was it 259? Rallied back up all the way to 330. In four days, it's back to 267 near that Monday lows. GEV, that's another one. That stock on that day. well let's see it closed at 420 the next day it was 317 it rallied up to 390 almost getting it all back in three days it's back to 316 at the lows vST how about that one that's another one of those names closed at 190 next day was 132 rallied up to 172 it's back to 142 whoa And then there's a bunch of semiconductor names.

Like Broadcom, which dropped from 250 to 196, rallied up to 236, back to 207, getting close to those lows. We're just letting you know. We'd be very careful with them. And you know others. There was the Microsoft, that big talk. That's a new relative low. Remember Oracle? They're going to spend all kinds of money.

That was 192. Went to 152. So we don't know what's next. We just know there are a lot of promises out there. Soft bank's going to spend how many hundreds of billions? And the list goes on and on. Which leads me to today. Apple announces they're going to spend $500 billion

in the next four years after meeting with President Trump. Let me tell you what I would say to Tim Cook's face on that. Sir, you're not spending $500 billion in four years. Stop it. There's no chance. This is all politics. Appeasing the president. America first.

We're going to spend it all in the United States. but he's not there's no chance of spending 500 billion and the market doesn't believe him either because if the market believed them the stock would have been down ten bucks today it was up two dollars today on a very tough NASDAQ day again off of very weak technology and the AI trade so we're just letting you know there's an awful lot of promises out there on the space we ain't believe in them. We don't believe it.

And we're worried about that over-ordering. Microsoft, there are a couple of outfits now announced that Microsoft is rolling back the data center promises. Hmm. No wonder. So just be careful. We'll let you know. It's a moving vehicle.

but I can tell you right now the market is kind of sort of not believe in all the numbers that have been coming out from these companies. And again, we told you way in advance. We've seen it in the past, especially in the chip business where you get double ordering. You need it to buy a thousand of it and you bought 2,000. But once you get the point, it turns into one word called the glut. And that's when prices come down and stocks get even more trashed. So we're going to watch very closely. It was a rough day for semiconductors today.

Envidia dropped four bucks. By the way, and we say this knowing Nvidia reports Wednesday. Up next, we'll discuss that. And the Doge moment. This is the one only Investors Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living,

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Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. So, let me be clear about something. I have absolutely no clue with Nvidia reports. I know what their guidance is. Typically, they usually beat.

And the CEO has a great reputation of never saying anything negative. But the market will decide everything and we'll know more on Wednesday. And I keep hearing how important it is and it's the main this, that, and the other thing. You can turn the tide, this, that, and the other thing. I don't believe it can turn the tide. on this very much suffering AI trade for right now. But I don't know. So we'll let you know when it comes out, what the story is,

and we'll go from there. We're just letting you know right now. Man, this is some suspicious action. Remember the software stocks went a little loopy to the upside off of the AI trade? Guess what's getting whacked? The software stocks and the cloud stocks and the like. So stay tuned. We're on it.

Anything below the 50-day moving average, we ain't owning and a lot of them are. And Nvidia, again, we just don't know. And we're not going to tell you what to do. You get to decide for yourself. But this AI trade, my worry, my ultimate worry, as I said months ago, was what if. We always want to do the what if in case of. And we're starting to see and get a little bit of that. You can go read the Microsoft story that is out there.

And it's just about whether they are, well, the story goes, they're canceling leases for a substantial amount of data center capacity in the U.S. This came from Bloomberg. We'll see. And thus, guess what's getting hammered today? data centers and the construction of the data centers and the energy to get those data centers up and running and all that crap. If it changes, we'll let you know, but leave no doubt it's on the defensive.

Which gets us segueing into the Doge moment. We promise that we're going to keep you on top of things and we're going to start out a little bit different today on the Doge moment. Has anybody ever heard of Representative Dave Minn? He's a Democrat from California. He's planning to introduce, get this, a bill titled Bad Doge Act. He's going to introduce it in the House against Doge, arguing that it is engaged. Get this.

In an abuse of power. So they're saying Doge is abusing their power, not just this representative, but the whole Democrats, they're out there whining and complaining about Doge and saying it's an abuse of power that all the lawmakers took an oath, blah, blah, blah, and it's about the Constitution of the United States and abuse of power, this and abuse of power that. Well, if I was able to meet Representative Dave Min of California, I would look at him straight in the face and say this and ask this. Well, you say Doge's abuse of power. What do you call $37 trillion of debt brought to us by you and your buddies and now $2 trillion yearly deficits plus

brought to you by you and Joe Biden's administration? Where's the abuse of power? In Doge that's trying to roll it back, or you people that took us the 37 trillion of debt and we're finding massive amounts of corruption in the spending. We'll start with your buddy Stacey Abrams, creating a out of thin air, a green energy so-and-so, and gets $2 billion grant, which is money not having to be paid back. That's what I would say to him. So just letting you know these Democrats, and again, if they were Republicans, I would tell you that too. We have no bias. These Democrats are a bunch of worms. They are worms in every way, shape, or form. I cannot believe that this is what they're trying to fight. Entities trying to make government more efficient and effective and get rid of. Imagine if you bought a restaurant today. You bought a restaurant. And you see there's a hundred people working in that restaurant.

But you know for a fact, well, you need's 40. And you'd still run great. What are you going to do? What are you going to do? In case you don't know, government is a business. We own them. They work for us. We don't work for them, but they've run amok.

And finally, somebody's doing something about it. And then you get somebody like Dave Kim that says, they're the abuse of power that doges, not the people running $2 trillion plus deficits each year, and $37 trillion. What's the other thing I would say to him? Kiss mine. Speaking of the Doge moment. Lee Zeldon canceled 21 Wasteville DEI Environmental Justice Grants with the help of the Doji team,

racking up 67 million more in savings. That's fabulous. That's fabulous. It's fabulous. They found $265,000. For a food and nutrition service, three-day leadership retreat in Atlanta. A three-day leadership retreat in Atlanta for $265,000 of our tax dollars? Oh, but that's so small potatoes.

How about $30,000 bucks? Just $30,000 from Malaysia Study Tour facilitation services. Sure. Who needs $30,000 of our tax dollars, right? Right? Right. Schools have spent $200 billion of COVID relief funds with little oversight or impact on

students, you ready? 393,000 to rent out a Major League Baseball Stadium, $86,000 in Caesar's Palace hotel rooms, $60,000 in swimming pool passes, and an ice cream truck.

Run amok. These people are just sick to their stomach. Sick to their stomach that they've been found out. And the gravy train is over. And you do know we're going to find a lot of crap.

Remember, we predicted that people were going to create green energy companies. We told you that specifically. That's what Stacey Abrams did. You know what you're going to find? Entities were created and politicians were paid a $1 million to do a speech to that entity because they could not take a donation, but they can certainly do a speech. More corruption. There's going to be a ton of that.

Up next, back on the markets. This is the one only investors' edge. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John Underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game-changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you.

Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect.

Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000, airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster.

The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Sprinker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. is talking Investors Edge

He's got to be pleased with that The crowd is just on his feet here He's a Cinderella boy With Gary Colbomb It comes highly recommended You're gonna feel better if you talk to him And welcome once again To Investors Edge

Just real quickly Because it's something we've talked about The Slop House called MSNBC That has amazingly People hosting shows and telling the audience that they're racist. No, seriously. I've hardly turned it on,

but every time I would turn it on, there's somebody telling us that we are racist. We are a racist people. It's amazing. So what they did was they can this woman Joy read, who's worse than all of them, and she's also a racist herself, very homophobic. A lot of texts were found out,

and she said, no, no, no, somebody hacked me, and then she apologized three years later. They let her on TV, and she gets to do an hour show and say, Americans are way racist. They hate the blacks. They hate the Hispanics. They would want to do this, and they want to do that. I got a question for each and every one of you out there.

Are you racist? I got to tell you, I meet a hell of a lot of people. A hell of a lot. Most of the people I've met don't have. a racist bone in their body, but they have these shows. What a privilege and an honor to have your own television show. And you get on there and you waste your time telling the country that they're racist? Really?

Oh, but Gary, there's racism. Of course there is. There's scumbags out there. They are welcome to the world. But as a whole, get out of here. Anyway, they can't her butt. And they replace her with three other idiots. And what I mean idiots?

Just illogical people that don't believe in we the people. They're control freaks. They believe government is everything and we bow down to them. They believe that we work for the government. Government doesn't work for us. So nothing's going to change. It's just, you know, what do they say about the, move the deck chairs on the Titanic.

We hope they get it right. Unbelievable. All right, back on markets. Well, let me just state for the record. Because what matters, you know, we watch the NASDAQ very closely. It finished down another 237 today, NASDAQ 100, 262. What was interesting is it had a chance. You see, early in the day, the NASDAQ went to 19275, very early.

Very early, but rallied up to 19506 in the middle of the day. It was actually 19506 was another 220, was only down 17 points, and then sold off down 237. And the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was down 133. Facebook, amazing. We're sitting there reporting to you that Facebook is the strongest mega-cap name in the market. That was last Friday, the Friday before. It closed that day at 737. It hit a highest 741 that day.

Five trading days later, it's 6.68 at the close. And it's down another two bucks in the aftermarket. Welcome to the market. Netflix. How about that one? That sucker that Friday was 1064. It's 988. Five trading days.

So they're really coming after the growth area, software, internet types. The areas we love, they're just out of fashion right now. Simple as that. Tesla. Ew. Remember they hit that high at 488 in December. It's 337 today. And their number is not very good.

That is a problem for Tesla right now. Just remember, we keep hearing, oh, don't worry because of what they're doing in the future. No, people worry because they sell cars and they're selling less of them. So the NASDAQ at the close today, which finished below the 50-day moving average on Friday, furthermore today and I did not like the future the finish the NASDAQ 100

broke the 50 day today it was actually a little bit above that's big capness and I'm just noticing a broadcom today one of the AI names down 11 bucks crack in that all important area we mentioned

Microsoft Amazon down almost another four that gap down on earnings and following through not good It's just icky. Best way I can put it, icky. And as I look at my screens and add up, I just start looking at the tone, how many? And I can tell you my front screen, which contains stocks above the 50 day,

I'm going to have about 40 names move to my left screen tonight because they broke today. China finally correcting. And I can tell you, the name we have mentioned most, Ali Baba was down almost $15 today. Since the recent low in January, went from 80 to 145. No, not kidding. 80 to 145 off of the government

and the money supply that's growing leaps and bounds. and now finally pulls back almost 15. There's probably more to go. We will alert you when we think it finds an area because we do think something is up there. We think there's a chance. This is a place. That's going to be for a while. A chance.

You never know. What else stood out? Warren Buffet. Berkshire Hathaway, the B shares, were up almost $20 today to $498. a big breakout on volume, which helped out other insurance stocks today. Good numbers. There's all worries about how much cash Warren Buffett has. That's one of my worries.

I think he's one of the most brilliant logical minds ever in the markets. I have noticed very often in the past when he builds up a huge cash position, it is quite the indicative of something is up that he believes valuations are too high and he's waiting for them to drop before he deploys that money. There's also something called the Buffett Indicator. Don't believe me, go look it up yourself. Google the words the Buffett Indicator. It's at an all-time high right now, which means it's above even where it was in 2000 as far as valuation.

go look up what the Buffett indicator is. I don't want to bore the hell out of you on what it is. The Buffett indicator. B-U-F-F-E-T-T. Does that mean the market's going to drop? No. It's in the file manager. We have lots of things that go into our file manager that we know about.

The S&P 500 trading at 23, 24 times earnings, and pundits are out saying, yeah, that's okay. even though the market on average throughout the years is traded at 17 and in bare markets has gone as low as eight. And of course, if 23 turns into 17 tomorrow, that's a 25% drop in the market and still be at 17 times earnings. We are not predicting that. And the fact that the matter is, who knows? Maybe we can stay at 23. Maybe we can go to 25.

Maybe earnings will be so powerful over the next six months that it fills that number. number and brings that number down. We're just letting you know the number is up there. So just these little things that are in a file manager while we watch the market, while we stay on top of things. Also, I want to mention that we've been worried about what's the market saying about the economy. You know what had a good day again today? Food and beverage and tobacco and household products while weakness was in the growth arenas. United Rental's our second favorite economically sensitive stock down another $25 today, nearing yearly lows in its own private bear market. It has us asking the question, what does

it sing about the economy? Something to watch. And of course, the home builders. Do you know Hovenian has gone from 240 to 100 since August? What's going on there? Just a asking. Up next, what strong will have that? On this, the one-to-only investor's edge. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game-changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first

order with code comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need,

explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com.

Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! In the Gester's Edge. With Gary Culpa.

Dun-da-da-da. Duh. Hey, guess who walked in? Winston, my little doggie. He hangs out in the office. No, I have no food, Winston. I'm sorry. You know what's amazing about my dog? He can be 100 feet away from me, not seeing me, not hearing me, not hearing me, go to a refrigerator, pulling out some turkey, hearing nothing.

I walk up into my office and he'll smell it being 100 feet away and then show up sitting right next to my leg, looking at me with those eyes. of course I hand them a bunch. That's doggy sense of smell. It is quite amazing, huh? And by the way, Winston is now 12 in change. Two and a half years ago, they said he had this real aggressive cancer, and they did the operation.

They took it out, and then they wanted to do chemo, but after one day of chemo, we couldn't even get up on the bed, so we blew that off, and they were all worried. Two years later, he's fine and dandy. Then finally we brought him in.

They found the aggressive cancer now, and it's moved into a place where they can't do an operation. And that was four months ago. And they said, maybe three, six months, maybe six months to a year. I can tell you it's four months later. And he's great. But we know he's 12 and a half years old, and we do know that. You know, I'm not going to be prepared. Let's put it that way.

Not going to be prepared for Little Winston. anyway. Anyway, so just letting you know what we try to do right now while the market's weak is we isolate strength. What stocks are like rocks? And does that mean they hold up? No. Does it mean it leads? No, but it's just, oh, we always want to keep that list.

And for instance, MasterCard and Visa just remain very strong. While a lot of financial stocks have really pulled in hard, MasterCard and Visa just sit there. They've been fine. Of course, they are the greatest bookies on Earth. You know, the greatest. And we've been yelling and scream at you for how many years about never pay interest on your credit card. If you can't afford it, don't buy it. What do they get, like 25, 28, 30% on your money if you don't pay it in time?

And what is it? If you pay the minimum on your credit card, you maybe pay it off like in 30 years or something like that? Who's the guy who has the, that's 100,000 times bigger than that? Dave Ramsey. He's got it right. The man has nailed it. I have never paid interest on a credit card. Nope. They ain't getting a dime from me. And you know what I'm good at? Getting credit cards and getting like 100,000 points on an airline or something like that. I'm the king of that. So MasterCard and Visa, strong. We're in Berkshire Hathaway into New High Ground. Team Mobile, AT&T, strong. As we said coming on, Hershey's up another five bucks today. Gold, strong with gold miners.

You know about China, but China's got a pullback. A lot of them have gone vertical, so I wouldn't touch them. And then there's a slew of names that reported great earnings, and we're watching them closely, but I must tell you, a lot of them are filling the gaps. What do I mean by that? Well, a stock closes at 100, opens at 120 because of an earnings report. goes to 130. Oh, okay, it's working and it's back to 100 right now because the market's weak.

Got to be careful with those. But things like Spotify, just staying strong. But Palantir, not staying strong. Dutch brothers, that other coffee place, strong, but filling the gap a little bit. So all we're doing right now, number one, our job's a little bit easier. You know why? As I said, we have 30 or 40 names that have broke, gone by-bye. We have 30 to 40 less names we even have to worry about unless they get back above that big, all-important 50-day move and average. And it narrows the list down for us, but it's getting narrower by the day. And you had 2 to 1 negative on the NASDAQ today. Narrower.

You have much more new yearly lows than yearly highs. narrower. By the way, I can tell you, let's see, new yearly highs in the market, I'm going to say 8, 412, 20, maybe 40, just NASDAQ in New York, there's 400 new yearly lows. With the big indices not even close to new yearly lows, it tells you there's a lot of weakness underneath the surface. So stay tuned. Ain't pretty. have no idea what tomorrow's going to bring. We do know the market had a chance to do better today. By the way, they opened up the NASDAQ today, I think strong, if I'm not incorrect. Yeah, on the open today, it hit 1964, 360. Yeah, the NASDAQ was up like 120 on the open today in the first five minutes.

And guess what the institutions did on that? Thank you. We're selling. And then they try to rally it up in the middle of day, and it was, thank you, we're selling. We don't want to see too many more days where. Thank you, we're selling. And the more names and the more areas that go by the wayside, the weaker the market becomes. So stay tuned. Are measurements of new highs, new lows, not good, advanced decline's not good, stock staying above the 50-day moving average not good,

stocks gaping up and filling the gaps not good. That said, we will keep a close watch on the strength. Because when corrections end, strength usually, not 100% of the time, begets strength. And we kind of have an idea of names right now, but if we get weakened from here, oh, they'll go lower. they'll come in also. You know our line, they usually get them all. I'm not in the camp of the big bear market where the indices, the big indices,

drop 25, 30%, but I can tell you this. Russell 2000's more than 10% now. From the highs. The mid-cap 400? I think that bad boy is getting close. 35 and 24 is 59. That's about 9.5%. So there is damage underneath.

Not sure the market's going to take too much more. That all said on that wonderful note, you have a great evening drive carefully. And when you get home, do like we do. Quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better.

I promise. Stay well. Be well. Serenity now. Good night all. Bye, bye. This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cultbaum on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary,

Go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you.

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