Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - All Over The Central Bank Map!

Episode Date: December 14, 2022

Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com

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Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for detail. Investors Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host.

A thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It is December 14th, 2022. We got rid of Jay Powell today for the next, what, six, seven, eight weeks or something like that. Yay, as usual, lots to talk about lots to cover. We're here to protect you from the east. ills protect you from yourselves sometimes and all that crap in between and man oh man there's just a lot of that that we will cover today as always hope you are having a good day as we head

into the end of the year last night we had our calm family supposed to be Thanksgiving dinner for the boys and girls clubs of central Florida that had to be moved because of the hurricane So he made it kind of sort of holiday dinner. There's about 200 children last night. But as I say to you, we don't tell you to impress upon you. We tell you to impress upon you. If you have the ability, if you have the opportunity, always think about doing something for somebody you need absolutely nothing from.

You will feel great. I promise. No, really. I promise. If you do not get this radio show in your city, you go to garyk.com. We'll post it there. We'll also post on our Twitter feed.

You can also get in many podcast apps. You can email me. Just be nice. Oh, and by the way, you should follow us on Twitter. We're quite sarcastic and charming at the same time. And when I mean sarcastic, you know exactly what I am talking about. And that's that for that. Ladies and gentlemen, you know what our job here is?

Number one. tell you what we think. And first and foremost, what we think about protecting your capital, especially when they're coming to take it away. Bare markets, down markets, trashed markets, bubbles, you name it. The other part of the equation is tell you what's working. What's not? tell you where we have an edge. That's the terminology I always use with myself.

Our edge is that we do things that just about everybody else does not do, and even if they did, they would not know what to do with it. You know what I mean, right? Wall Street has been found out again. It always happens in bare markets, is that Wall Street is just a fully invested vehicle come hell or high water and they will ride down stocks to zero.

No, really, zero. And tell you everything's okay, it'll come back, we're diversified. Wall Street is just fully invested vehicle. Never sees anything wrong. Nothing bad will ever happen. Everything's cool. Do not worry. Day in and day out,

people are parade in front of you. Gotta think long term. They're lucky I don't do the interviews because my first thing would, what do you tell people to think long term with a stock like Square or Peloton? What should they do long term? What should they do long term with Bear Stearns that went out in 2008? We try to stay out of the generalizations and go underneath the hood. and we think that does the trick.

But every now and then, we don't have a great edge. We don't have a great edge every now and then. In the bare market, we had a great edge. In the bare markets, we have a great edge. And as we've rallied up, there's still plenty of things in bare markets. But in bear market rallies, where you have, how do I put this, some stuff that's good, some stuff that's okay, some stuff that's not okay, some stuff is terrible. What else do you do when you have the major indices playing ping pong?

As we describe for you, breaking up into the attic and then somebody slamming the door on your head. Then you're ice fishing and you fall into the water. Well, you're in a lake and you fall into the water. But somebody picked you back up. In other words, the indices don't break down, can't break out, and they drive you up a wall with a couple of times where they broke out and failed and broke down and failed. What do you do? Here's what you do. You stay patient.

That's what you do. You wait for the big fat pitches. That's what you do. You isolate the strength. That's what you do. You stay away from the real weakness. That's what you do. How do you do that?

You scan and you scan ruthlessly as long as you need to to stay on top of the game. I can safely tell you right now. I know where the strength is, but I don't trust it. I know where the weakness is, we stay away from it. The market indices, trying to drive each and everybody up a wall, ain't going to drive me up a wall, we'll stay patient. When they make a decision, we'll know. Today they had a chance to make a decision.

Yesterday they had a chance to make a decision. Yesterday the Dow was up 706 points on the open, finished up only 100 and change. Today, the Dow, early in the day was up 270 points. Late in the day, it was down. Ooh, was it that much? 709, 259, almost 400.

At the close, it was down 142. So on the bad note, you had another strong day sold off. on a good note, you could have got really hit hard but held. And where are we at? A stalemate. So what we will do on a daily basis, listen carefully. We're going to scan like heck. And if more and more names show up to the good side,

it's going to tell us we're going to move above range. If more and more names start heading to the south side, we'll get the feel that we're going to break below range. Right now, I don't have an edge. We reversed down today, then reversed up, reversed down, finished down, but off the lows. Tomorrow, they'll probably gap it up. I'm not so sure that's sarcasm.

The reason I say it, it was Central Bank Day, and Jay Powell said, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. I didn't watch them. They just raise rates. Another half a point. I refuse to watch them. It's not that I dislike the guy. I've never met him.

I don't think anybody should ever be in a position that he's in to be able to print $9 trillion trillion. Trillion bucks. Take rates to zero, screwing every saver. Create the widest wealth inequality in the history of time. Create inflation. Enable massive debt and deficits. Distort all price and yield. Create massive bubbles that have all popped and destroyed massive amounts.

amounts of wealth, including the crypto now, which we predicted for you. Nobody should be in that position, yet he is. And it's so freaking nauseating. So I can't watch them or I'd heave up my lunch. What I do is I'll get a little bit of outtakes, but it does not matter. What matters to me is markets and how they react to whatever he says. I'll find out in due time exactly what the story is. I do know they're up to four and a quarter percent.

they are neatly up above the 10-year yield now at 3.5. They're way above it now. But they also came out and said that they think they're going to be going to 5 in a quarter. I think that may have hit the market. I'm not sure. Don't care. What we care about again, outcome. And we'll call it somewhat of a stalemate, though we finish down on the day today.

If I was going to take it negatively, two days. in a row you had a chance to really break out of the range and two days in a row could not. But guess what? There's always Thursday. That would be tomorrow. So that was today. Yay. Wish I can tell you there's a great edge. What I'll do is I'll look at the new yearly high list to see where some leadership is. But we already know that most leadership has failed. But we'll still keep an eye on it. And whatever else up next. I'm Gary. This is the one only Investors' Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based

discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-422-559.

That's 888-4-22-5-5-9. That's 888422-5-5-9. Investment Advisory Services offered through call-bomb capital management. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. VentureX offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card.

What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, your performance.

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It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. I don't know if I...

I don't know if I was on here yesterday when this happened and I announced. I don't know, but they gave no bail to the creep down in the Bahamas. and I hear he's in a real dingy, dusty, bug-laden jail cell. Oh, darn. I feel terrible. Also, what's happening now is Tom Brady, and all these celebs are getting sued. I must tell you, I think that's a bunch of bull crap.

They're endorsing something. Whoopie-do. Really? You're going to sue them for you not doing your job as a steward of your own money? You listen to Tom Brady and Naomi Osaka and Stefan Curry on crypto and you're blaming them. It's not your fault. Give me a break. Seriously. So if I endorsed yodels and you got fat because you ate them, that's my fault for endorsing yodels, which by the way are the greatest. they're the best and you know how to eat them right

you got to unwind them first so we'll keep you up to date on that just remember no one else on earth predicted this way in advance everything and nobody we get no credit from anybody

anywhere and we're cool with that we're just happy we protected people that listened. The world should be clamoring for our opinion on this due to the fact that everybody else was on the other side of what was obviously and evidently just a bubble. I heard somebody say today,

hey, Bitcoin's rallied up the last few days. You're going to miss out. So before you ask the question, I'm going to answer it. Sure, they can rally them up. It's just an entity. It's just something that. that trades. Anything's possible. Just don't be the last one in from here. And if you go look up on those websites where this 22,000 coins, most of them are now zero. Just don't forget that.

I bring that up because I saw somebody on TV that was bullish on the coins. Obviously losing their butts, but bullish on the coins. All right, today's very tiresome market wrap is brought to you by Investment-Models.com. That's Jim Rohrabak, one of the great market timers. No gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market with his proprietary indicators. Go check it out, investment-mottles.com. Dowdown 142. And if you don't mind by way of doing this, well, you know about the gap up yesterday.

today at 2 o'clock 34395 so that's up another 430 it was up 300 points at 2 o'clock you got that 300 points at 2 o'clock at 235 went from up 300 on the Dow

to the Dow to the Dow 390. By 315, the Dow was up 100. Let me make sure I got that number right. 34, 210, 210, 2.4, up 100. By 335, we're down 290. By 4 o'clock, we're down 142. All in two hours, off of one man and his whims.

And I always get asked, why does that happen? How does happened I always answer and it's not a flippant answer I have no clue what are my worries here well let me re question that what still acts very poorly and has to be on watch regional banks act terribly bear market and of course the reason is if long rates go up and short rates go down they have no margins the bigger banks, not nearly as bad as regional banks, but under some pressure here. Most financials, under some pressure here. It's simple. They're losing their margins. To a certain extent, they get to charge more in their credit cards. So financials. And then there's just a lot of things

and a lot of names that never came out of the bear market that are just doing these little counter-trend rallies. and then you have the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100. They're at the same price as that first day off the lows on November 10th on that big gap to the upside. Seriously, that close that day was 11-1-14. We're at 11-1-70. While the Dow has done much better. S&P has done better and is in between.

But man, the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 just ain't happened yet. And try to start moving yesterday and it was trying again today and the market just took out the mall and hit it on top of the head hard again. And here's the worry. If they can't rally up the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 and the Russell 2000, while the Dow has done a kind of sort of V shape up, What if that area comes down? Is that money going to flow into the NASDAQ and send it up?

Or is it just going to show its bad relative strength and break it down? Well, I can tell you, as of this second, one would suggest, logically, they're going to bust that sucker down into bare market lows. That's to be watched. That's an interesting one-two punch, isn't it? but we're still taking a line and drawing under the last five weeks support levels on everything, as long as they hold opportunity if they break good night. And I say that because they are definable. Sometimes price will go down right to a certain number, hold and bounce,

come down, hold and bounce, come down, hold and bounce, come down, hold and bounce. so you can draw a straight line. You got a bunch of that right now. Of course, you have the same thing above. Up next, news of the day. Whatever else. I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge.

This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet?

Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, Sorry, I can't talk right now. I'm editing audio.

If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at Spreker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. VentureX offers the premium benefits you expect,

like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.

We're listening to. America is talking. Investors edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended.

You're going to feel better if you talk to. Let's cover a few things what I think are important. And they all have something. to do with you and your money and your jobs and the future? The border. I talk about the border every now and then on the show. I talk about it more on TV, but I talk about it every now and then. I've always said, I know so many people that came here legally, and it took them years. They went through the system, cost them money, sweat, tears, and then finally became citizens. They did it the right way. And of course, a lot of people in D.C. have incentivized people to do it.

the wrong way and then you have the media remember on the trump they gave him a colonoscopy every day on it remember with the children they covered that rightfully so i got news for you what do you think's happening now but they don't cover it do you know a few months back 53 people died in the back of a truck coming across the border over two million people through here and God bless all you know I think most of them just want a better life God bless them they're leaving the leaving poverty and strife and horrible governments God bless them there's a problem countries are supposed to have borders and immigration's supposed to be controlled and every time one walks in

it's your wallet and I'm just letting you know This administration is pure malpractice, pure head in the sand. I'm trying to figure out what they're trying to accomplish with this. I really am. What's the goal? You know, they wind and complain when DeSantis, the governor here, sent a bunch of migrants to these blue states. I think it was a great move. These border states are getting killed.

They're getting whooped. Everybody else is laughing their butts off. So if you've incentivized these people to come in, share it. You know what they should do? They should send them within three blocks of Joe Biden's house in Delaware. Put them up there. Might as well just do nothing. And now they're going to get rid of Title 42,

which was something that at least try to stop. It had to do with COVID, preventing. people coming in because of COVID. They're going to get rid of that. You know what they're saying now. They're saying 10,000 people a day are coming in. How are we going to be able to take care of that? How are the cities going to be able to take care of that?

How is the system going to take care of that? Our president doesn't give a crap about it. He should not be president just for that. A president of the United States is supposed to defend the citizenry and the borders. And this man doesn't give a crap about it. That's my take. But you know what happened in the last week?

The other party equation, now that the election is over, the corrupt, sleazy, slimy, national media is now reporting on the immigration problem. Now they're talking about it. I was like, whoa, NBC this morning. Oh, they're talking about the immigration and the facilities can't handle it. Whoa, where were you before the election?

They're pretty good at timing these people who black out bad news on the people they like and rip the stuffings out of somebody with the bad news they don't like. The ones they do like, kiss the butt. Anyway, I just wanted to bring up immigration because I don't know if you know this. It's the worst I've seen it. It's the worst I've seen it. And they're doing nothing. Remember the Kamala Harris?

Kamala Harris, the vice president was supposed to be the point person on it. He ain't even been there. It's done nothing. It doesn't even talk about it. Joe Biden was in Arizona recently. He didn't even visit it. It just doesn't care. I keep saying until these politicians are affected,

personally, they just don't care. The crime in these cities, they just don't care. I get emails from people in Portland that live there that have shut businesses. I get emails from people in LA. What's going on there? Philadelphia. Oh, the emails I'm getting in Philadelphia, carjackings. It's like a hobby in Philadelphia. New York City. I've already told you, my kids live there. I tell them, If you take in the train, stay away from the tracks and just stay against the wall and stay away from people. Anybody starts just get the hell out of there. When you walk in the streets, just know your surroundings. I have to tell my kids that.

Really? You go into a CVS or a Dway drugstore. Everything's locked up. The toothpaste is locked up. Have you seen videos of just people going in? Do you hear what Walmart said? they may have to shut a bunch of stores because in these certain cities they're just what are they going to do they're worried if they try to stop somebody do you see there was one guy i think it was a home depot

somebody who worked there tried to stop him the guy knocked him down he's dead hit his head 80 year old worked at i think of the home depot they haven't caught the guy yet he's dead you don't know if the guy's got a blade you don't know if the guy's got a gun you're going to stop somebody and this all starts from the leadership down from the cities, the counties, the states, the country. And if we don't do something about all this, the immigration, the crime, everything, the cost to the country, I can't imagine. How many people work at a Walmart? One store. It's got to be a hundred and something. If one store goes, it's 100 some odd people.

It's probably more than that. And Walmart's saying, we have no choice. We're losing too much money. Restaurants are shutting down. Can't do it. Mom and pops shutting down. They came and stole our inventory. People that shoplift 30 times, arrested 30 times, let out 30 times with not a slap on the hand.

By the way, this is all a cost to the citizens. What do you think? The cost doesn't go up at a store where there's a ton of shoplifting. Of course it does. They can't stay in business unless they raise the prices. To cover that. So I just had to bring this up because I just noticed today the news people are talking to immigration finally after an election. But nothing getting done.

And I feel El Paso, the South border, I can't imagine what they're going through these cities. And again, I have all the sympathy, empathy, and all the fees for these families that are coming over. I do. I'm a people person. This country better get their act together. better get a system together or it's going to get worse, especially with this doofus running the show. And when I say doofus, I mean doofus. My definition of doofus is somebody who's a doofus, who does nothing about the things they can do something about. Now, there's probably a better word

than doofus. That's my take. Hope you don't mind. We're dead serious about life in general here, about you, my life, my family's life, your life, the future. And I just continue to worry we're going down that bad road. 31 trillion of debt, massive deficits, and just big gargantuan monolithic lies from the people running the show. And an out-of-control central bank. And the Giants got the whip by Philadelphia this past weekend. Up next. We'll figure out something. I'm Gary. This is the one only investors, Ed.

This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker, the platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain.

Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com.

Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change.

See Capital One.com for details. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Investors Edge with Gary Kaltba. And welcome, once again, to Investor's Edge. By the way, a bit of news that has nothing to do with you and your money.

They finally came out with this body cam footage. You know the Pelosi's husband was attacked by this guy? And you know, a bunch of conspiracy theorist idiots, just with no evidence of nothing, just blah, blah, blah, blah. Anyway, the body cam footage shows that this guy at the time. attacking him, and the reason why he attacked Pelosi's husband and I guess wanted Nancy Pelosi, he wanted revenge on Democrats for persecuting Trump. Get this for his other targets.

Gavin Newsom, okay, the governor of California and Hunter Biden, because he was pissed persecution of Trump and this and that. But also Tom Hanks! Tom Hanks! I love Tom Hanks! one of the greatest actors of all time and I've never met him but seems like the nicest guy doesn't he does he seem like a guy you just want to hang out with why would he go after Tom hanks anyway I think the guy's still in jail he no bail whatever whatever whatever and all that

and the son of the attacker came out and said his dad's not evil yes he is he's trying to kill somebody it's the definition of evil okay so that has nothing to do with you and your money ladies and gentlemen but I'm allowed to do that every now and then right other things that happen today in the markets interesting enough the 10-year yield as you know we think that's movie importante finished only up a little bit after being up decently I think that's gonna dictate policy the dollar was down today and that's actually good news well it has been good news except if you're visiting other countries even though it's still the

dollar's been very very strong it's just now in a downtrend and we will let you know if that changes but those are two things to watch oil prices are up and I will tell you that the lows of September have now held for this second I can't The oil stocks, I just have an void on them right now. They've lost their leadership. There's a few names stronger than others. Here's a pipeline. Scorpio tankers, STNG.

That's at a new yearly high. But others are just weighed down, so it's very much a mixed bag of slop there. The semiconductors, which were strong early, finished down, and guess where they are? back in the middle of the range going back five weeks and we'll know more going forward here's the problem with the semiconductors there are some stocks in the group in the sector that aren't pure bare markets there are stocks in the group that are what I would call on the decently strong side on a relative basis so mixed bag in there but remains overall way below the highs and you know how important the semis are Tesla

another new yearly load today one yesterday and today my thought process and this is just a guess because I don't know what's in the thinking of the sellers but the big money that has been very much overweight in that I think that Elon Musk doesn't stop tweeting now

he's the new Trump of Twitter he doesn't stop and I gather the worry is B, he's gone full to the right. To the right. And by the way, we're not making a political statement. I'm stating a fact. And I'm just wondering of people that used to love him because he was a liberal

are getting rid of their stock just on spite. Not sure. All we can tell you, bad action. Apple, first off, you don't want it to break 140. Secondly, it better not break 134. Just giving you two numbers. Lost all its relative strength, basically. Lost its leadership, lost its parking of money into it.

Greatest company, one of the greatest companies in history. But again, they now do $400 billion in revenues, and it's a lot tougher to grow. And as far as a stock, even here, after this drop, it's got $2.3 trillion market cap. Try moving that. so the law of big numbers may be in place with Apple. But if you go to a weekly longer-term chart, you do not want this thing breaking 134. And just so you know,

every dog has its day in the market. I'm just letting you know. Every stock goes through bare markets. Every stock gets hit. Always. Eventually. We'll keep an eye on it. We'll keep a watch on it.

Amazon is no bid. It's hanging on the yearly lows by its chin-y-chin-chin. So it just let you know. A lot of crap going on out there. And you better be very selective. And some of the most famous names of the last three, four years can't find a friend. And that's where we always tell you to remember. We always say that if things change, we'll let you know. We did let you know things were changing. And we remain very stunned about some of the names. We remain stunned about PayPal and Square and some of these other companies out there. So pay attention.

Lastly, well, almost lastly, have you heard of this buy now, pay later stuff and how it's proliferated? Here's my opinion. It's going to be a disaster. You know, the rooms to go loans, the wimpy loans from Popeye, I'll pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today. I think a lot of places gave out a lot of money to a lot of people that could not afford it. And I think that's going to get interesting as we move forward. Buy now, pay later. The stocks have already been destroyed.

With credit card usage skyrocketing and savings rates plunging, something to watch. Hey, we'll be on Varnie and Company tomorrow, Fox Business Network 10 a.m. And same time tomorrow here. Until then, have a great evening drive carefully when you get home, do like we do. It's quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better.

You will feel better. I promise. Thanks for joining us. Always appreciate your ear. Bye, bye, bye. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cultbaum on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com.