Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - All Over The Map

Episode Date: August 2, 2022

Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com

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subject to I'm going to go. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host. A thanks of being with us today.

Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It's August 2nd. It's Tuesday, 2022, and we are emanating again. Well, wait a minute. Yeah, that's right. We are now in Sevia, Spain, Seville. Spain right now and on our little trip

and let me just state for the record if you have the chance see the world you know I never got to Europe I think the first time I was ever in Europe was like I was 40 something years old and I keep asking myself what am I nuts how come I did not go before

every town is different every country is different history up the wazoo stunned on a daily basis by such beauty if you have a chance we've done Barcelona and southern Spain and we're heading up north and ending up in Madrid

and flying home on Saturday so again if you have the opportunity just so you know flights were cheap they've gone up obviously they'll get cheap again. Leave no doubt. They will get cheap again. I remember when flights from Florida to Orlando, you know, coach was 800 bucks round trip. It's different. Now it's higher, but I think once everything

settles down, it'll be back. Hey, ladies and gentlemen, first off, a big thank you to Adam for doing the show yesterday. Adam Sarrhanaf. course, probably doing it one or two more days this week because I'm going to be out and about. How do I put this? I've been in the business a very long time. And I have told you in the markets that what we saw in the last year made 1999 look like nothing. We had, you know, the game stops and the AMC, and the blackberries and the hunks of junk and the spacks and the climactic moves in things like all the marijuana stocks, the 3D stocks. I can go through a litany of them.

What we have seen in the last few days on one name makes everything look like nothing. And it worries me. So let me start at the outset by saying, we have studied bull and bear markets. We have studied how bare markets start, what leads up to them, how they go through. And we've told you the toughest parts of bear markets are the rallies. because often you will get really good rallies that last six weeks, eight weeks. And it's very easy to believe that the bottom is in. And there's no chance of going lower.

My good buddy, Gil Morales, tells the story about one of the greatest of all time, Bill O'Neill. and I think I could be wrong on the exacts but during the 2000 to 2003 Bear Market he called a low the end of the

bear in the midst of it and we had another leg down that's the tough part but I must tell you let me repeat it what we are seeing in just one name we've already told you that we've been worried

because every rally, GameStop goes up and froth in speculation. I'm going to go through one name and I think Adam mentioned it yesterday. I'm not 100% if he didn't. I'm going to mention it for the first time. And the worry is. And I want you to listen carefully.

I can't remember a bare market bottom that had froth and speculation attached to it. Normally bare markets, listen carefully, normally bare markets have huge amounts of doubt coming out of the bare markets. There's no froth in speculation. They're wiped away. the froth and speculation. And we've kind of seen some froth and speculation during the rallies, but nothing like this. So we're just letting you know, there is a company called AMTD Digital, simple HKD. It's a Hong Kong-based company. They have $24 million in sales.

Came public. Got to get the date on July 15th. You got that? It's August 2nd. It was a $7.5 dollar deal. Close the first day at 16 and change. Okay, fine. The next day, it went up $11.

$27.89 to $27.80. 71% move. Significant. The next day, it dropped 10%. But swung, get this, from 33 to 13, finished in the 25. The next day was down $4 bucks, down to $20. We're July 20th now.

Just letting you know. July 21st did nothing. We're now July 21st. On July 22nd, it went up $47.68. Finisheding at $68. A ridiculous move. Now, remember that. It finished at $68, up $234.

You got that? $68.234%. The next day was weak. No big deal. You would think after the day before. It was down $24 the next day to 43. Down 35%. What we would call wild swings. The next day was the 26th. Rallied up 12.5%. bucks to 56 a 28% move were already July 26th last week right July 27th it was up $20 to 76 in change a seven-half dollar deal was up up a tenfold in a matter of days 36% that day I believe that was last Tuesday let's just say stunning. On 728, you're listening? It went up $103 to $180, up $134%. A $7.5 deal was $180 in 1,2,000 in 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 days. You got that? I'm going to let that stick for this second. A $7.5-dollar deal was 180 bucks in seven days up next we'll finish the story stunning I'm Gary this is the one

only investors edge hi I'm Gary call bomb hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge we're not just handsome radio people we manage investors money for a living specializing in fee-based discretionary money management no big commissions just a fee on the assets that's managed we also provide a full range of personalized services including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment

for a complementary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-422-5-559. That's 888-4-22-5-5-5. 559. That's 888. 422-5-5-9. Investment Advisory Services offered through call bomb capital management. Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stunts. issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches.

Like I get a stomach ache every time that I eat. And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just have a stomach ache every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication.

We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeartRadio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. Success starts with your drive. An American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the same. skills and confidence to move forward.

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The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary called bomb. It doesn't get better than this. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. We will be making an important point with this. So you had a $7.5 deal. Company has $24 million in revenues and makes very little money. $180.

In one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight days. The next day. Which was Friday of last week. went up $220 to $400. A $7.5-dollar deal goes to $400. You got that? Already insanity rules. We could have stopped right there.

Very easily stopped right there. Absolutely stopped right there. That was froth in speculation when went from seven and a half up to 20. August 1st. Monday. It was up another $341 to $742. Up 85% that day. A $7.5 deal to $742 in what? 11 days. 100 times your money. You think we're done? No, really. You think we're done? Today. at the close of the day, up another $937, $1,679. It hit a high today of $255,000, closed at $1,679. Now, I will tell you this. They were stopped trading all day. I was seeing $200 spreads. Forget all that. At the close today,

It had a market cap of $393 billion. At the highs today, it had a market cap of $470 billion. You ready? It has $24 million in sales. Goldman has a market cap of just $112. So at this price, it's more than triple. Morgan Stanley has a market cap of $146. So as a bigger market cap with Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs.

Citigroup, $98 billion. Bank America, $266 billion. So what's the moral of the story? Well, the moral of the story is, you remember my GameStop story, where the lady called me up, but was already gone from whatever to $3.50 and asking me, should I buy? And I said, do you know where the stock came from? And I said, listen, I'm not going to tell you what to do.

She goes, what if it goes to $1,000? Well, with this one here, if somebody asked me, after it went from seven and a half up to 30, I would have said you know where it came from. But what's my moral of this story? It's quite simplistic. This does not happen at bare market bottoms. Real ones. Now, I do believe the trading of this is somewhat of an anomaly in that there's not a lot of stock out there, but it still went up there in price. I don't know who would do that and pay for it, but it's got a $356 billion market cap today with $24 million in revenues and make very little money.

The float does have 125 million shares. It traded today, well, they stopped trading throughout most of the day. But again, my moral of the story. We've studied all bare markets and how they end. And I'm not talking about corrections. I'm talking bare markets. they don't end with froth and speculation now i believe this would define it don't you now i'm thinking to myself do we even want to mention this thing i think i may have mentioned it once but i was questioning

myself do i really want to mention this just know what the deal is here and i don't know if anybody lost money today but if somebody decided to buy it at 2,500 closed at 1679 today the stock is worth the $7 IPO, I would suggest. So keep this in your file manager. We'll talk about the markets in a second. Weird day. And remember what we've told you. Fair markets don't usually end with this going on.

We just want you to remember that, just in case. No matter what, we will play the market as it gives us and tells us and shows us. And if the market wants to skyrocket from here, terrific. This just worries the hell out of me. And stunned. Next. Terrorist Amin Al Zahiri was killed with a hellfire missile that just happened to have blades on it. A hellfire missile is bad enough.

Just so you know what it does, it blows you to bits. This one actually had blades on it. So hopefully this piece of crap. Scumbag, sleazyzag bag, piece of crap. Not enough four-letter words to describe this guy. Listen, it's not even a guy he's an animal. Let's hope he... Well, you know, he died immediately.

Wouldn't it be great if he didn't? Does that mean? Does that mean? He was on his balcony. which leads me just to my next point. We don't want to throw cold water on one of these people going by-bye. The Taliban in Afghanistan were hiding them. You know, the same Taliban we kind of sort of negotiated with.

Up next to markets. Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomach ache every time that I eat and it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh yeah, you know, I just, I have a stomachache every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy and

all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeartRadio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs,

APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.APUS.edu. Cash flow crunch. OnDec's small business line of credit

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Investors edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. Anyway, what I was saying was that, you know, we kind of, we didn't run Afghanistan,

but we were there for, you know, and we left completely. and we negotiated with the Taliban, and guess what they decided to do? They housed and protected one of the architects of 9-11, given us the big gigantic middle finger. We'll leave it at that. You know, we're pretty good at what we do here. You may not know this, but it's not easy to go in real time and live and tell people specifically about the markets.

you know that I don't know if you know that I don't say that very often and we're to the point we don't pull punches just this bare market we have guided you beautifully through it

and we know this because we get and it's not normal to get tons of emails people are taking the time sending us emails thanking us it's not easy

but we work hard at it. We're very specific about it. We've told you up front the toughest part, the toughest part in bare markets are the rallies. We can safely tell you, and we haven't lost anything, we're baffled here. Not baffled big picture.

We're baffled by the actual. action of the last two days and the insanity of 200 points swings in the NASDAQ back and forth a few times during the day and then there was today and we'll get to it in a minute we're baffled on we have no idea you know what we say to you every day we have no idea about tomorrow we really have no idea about tomorrow and today was one of those days where you said to yourself, oh, if they sell off the NASDAQ, this is going to be bad. But you also say, well, if they buy up the Dow, look out, the NASDAQ's going to fly. The bottom of the market, you know all those names that dropped between 50 and 80%, if not more,

they're putting in an effort this second and we've been telling you this but the effort's been getting a little bit better during earning season notwithstanding some blowups and I'm just going to state the down was down 402 points today at the close and finished bad I mean finish at the low of the day

they couldn't even get the NASDAQ into the red until the last few minutes. They finally got it into red. The NASDAQ was only down 20 points with the NASDAQ down 40T. You know what, a bad NASDAQ day, the Dow can only be down 100,

and the NASDAQ be down 200. So it's a real, what I would call conundrum here in telling you that there's a lot of good and a lot of bad in there. The problem is, is the good is the stuff off the bottom. And the question is, how long is that crap going to last?

We'll see. We'll take a day by day, step by step. But just let you know a very weird day today. And it was another one of those days where it was early week, and they ramped the hell out of the NASDAQ. The NASDAQ was up 133 when the Dow was doing better during the day. The Dow was weak most of the day but had a rally. It was down all day.

But as it was rallying, the NASDAQ just went insane. The Dow rallied from down 300 to down only 60, and the NASDAQ ramped. But when all said and done, the NASDAQ went from up 133 to down 20 because of how weak the Dow was. Now, I will tell you, a lot of these things off the bottom are reporting earnings this week. to be watched closely. For example, on the upside motive power, up 43 today to 505. PayPal after today's closed,

now this is a stock that's gone from 310 down to 67. It's up 13 in the aftermarket today. I haven't seen the earnings yet, but it's up about 13, 14%. There's a couple to the upside. But Airbnb, closed at 116. I got it at 105.

AMD, an important semiconductor. Closed at 99 and a quarter. I got it 95 and a quarter. It was 93 a few minutes ago. It's bouncing up a little bit. So there's good and bad. Again, the problem is it's the stuff off the bottom. The solars have been acting well. One end phase, real strong, ENPH, but there's also solar edge. SEDG that went along for the ride. They reported after the close. Close at 365. I got it at 321 in the aftermarket, 44 bucks. Why do we wait for earnings reports? That's a simple

answer, right? Down 45. So some good, some not so good. Just know these rallies are a pain in the rear. As far as have we seen the bottom? We'll say what we've said. We think there are some names that have. Maybe a decent amount of names. I'm really worried about this froth

and speculation. And something else came up today. We have been telling you that the first week of the year, yields broke out to the upside and skyrocketed. Within a day, the market topped. On June 17th, yields topped. The S&P hit the low that day.

So a direct correlation between yields and the market. And as we told you, correlations don't last forever. What we've been telling you to watch is the 10-year yield. It was up big today. went from 2606 to 2741. And the Dow dropped 402. So the direct correlation stands. And we can bluntly tell you if rates keep going up again,

not so sure that's good news. Rates went on the afterburners today. Something we will be paying attention to, big time. Again, that direct correlation. And the full market wrap is brought to you by Investment-Dashmodels.com. That's Jim Moraback, one of the great market timers. No gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market with his proprietary indicators. Go check it out.

Investment-dash models.com. Dow down 402. S&P only 27, though. NASDAQ only 20. NASDAQ 139. But the transport's down 350. A lot of jello. on the plate. Up next, we'll continue. I'm Gary. This is the one who only investors at.

Hi, I'm Dr. Jay Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist, Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomach ache every time that I eat. And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just have a stomachache every day.

Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change. change.

Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeartRadio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.apus.edu.edu.

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All loans and amount subject to lender approval. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! In the Gester's Edge. With Gary Culpa.

So let's just call it weird. it's the best way I can put it the last two days were just plain old weird wild swinging and I know there's a component you know

Nancy Pelosi went to Taiwan and China was threatening but China ain't doing anything what are they going to do you know what they did they're doing some military exercises whoopi do

it's called bluster what are you going to do start a war because somebody from the United States went to visit another country guess what politicians from the United States do they visit other countries

so I think there was that component I noticed when the world didn't end because of it and they rallied some China stocks today but nothing of note but just a mixed bag of slop. That's the best way I can put it.

Not bad enough for me to start telling you another tops in place. I will tell you a few things the top is in place. And we've been very good on the counter-tren rallies telling you we thought they were ending. In fact, we hit them all to the day. I'm not so sure we're there yet, but certainly, this Dow action today, not that great of news. And let me repeat something, because it bears repeated. In our studies, and in other people's studies,

not so sure it's good news that they're starting to highlight the stuff off the bottom. But we're all for it. And yeah, when something's down 80%, maybe. And just to give you an idea, and we've told you this, when something drops 80%, you can get, 100% moves off the lows and still be down how much 100 down to 20 goes up 20 still down 60%. PayPal now has gone from 67 to 100 from the lows after drop from 310. Quite wicked. I'll have to look at their numbers afterwards. But now you see why we don't buy before earnings.

and if we own something and we don't have a lot of cushion often we'll just say bye-bye why trust can always get back in with a good reaction never like to be gapped down on earnings reports and the likelihood in these type of markets you get a few

the biggies are reported but for the rest of the week there's some names of import and we'll be letting you know about them. The big story for us, though, yields and the direct correlation with markets. Yields and the direct correlations with markets. If you chart, go look at when the 10-year broke out to the upside first week of the year, the year, the broad market top within a day. go look on June 17th yields topped out that was the low day of the S&P let me repeat those correlations never last but while they last you go with them

and of course the direction of interest rates matter big time and to be clear as clear can be if the 10 year decides we're just throwing it if To go back to three and a quarter, three and a half, it forces the Fed's hand even more, and the market will pay a penalty. So stay tuned. But the NASDAQ today, ridiculous outperformance the whole day, even into the close. And now we'll get into earning season and see what happens. What else am I watching?

Apple, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Tesla, we'll throw in a little bit of Netflix. Why? I'll take out Netflix. Those five without Netflix are 41% of NASDAQ 100. And I will tell you, four of them moved up on crappy numbers, which begs the question, how much farther can they move up? Remember, the driving force behind stocks are strong earnings and growing earnings, and I can tell you Google's earnings were down.

Apples, they were down. Amazon lost money. was down 1% earnings. Microsoft, earnings were up, but quite the deceleration, only up 3% earnings. Four quarters ago it was 25%.

We're watching that. But we will start paying special attention to this stuff off the bottom, see how it goes. So that all said, it's going to be quite the next few weeks, I will tell you that. You all have a great evening drive carefully.

Go check out that HKD and go look at the chart of that. And keep it in your file manager. And when you get home, do like we do. When we get back from Spain, make sure you hug your family, hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better.

We promise. Go see the world and enjoy yourself. And if you won the lottery and have 430 million richer, call me. Have a great night, everybody. probably get at him tomorrow night. Bye-bye all. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk.

To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh or pursuing a lifelong passion. Our programs are designed for people who never stop.

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