Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Almost Yearly Highs [06.12.2025]

Episode Date: June 12, 2025

https://garykaltbaum.com/...

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Starting point is 00:00:00 At CVS, it matters that we're not just in your community, but that we're part of it. It matters that we're here for you when you need us, day or night, and we want everyone to feel welcomed and rewarded. It matters that CVS is here to fill your prescriptions and here to fill your craving for a tasty and, yeah, healthy snack. At CBS, we're proud to serve your community because we believe where you get your medicine matters. So visit us at CVS.com or just come by our store. We can't wait to meet you. Store hours vary by location. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Coltbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum,
Starting point is 00:00:49 your host. A thanks for being with us today. Glad you're here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening. It is Thursday, June 12th, 2025. Hope you having a good day. In case you don't know, this is serious talk on everything that affects you. We are going to do markets. We're going to do the economy. We're going to do jobs, your job, your industry. We're going to do the bond market. We're going to do the president and the bond market and the Fed and why he is wrong. No, really. And much, much else on this day. And if you do not get this show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com. We'll also be. We'll also posted on our Twitter feed, which is now X. And if you don't follow us on X, you should. And if you
Starting point is 00:01:36 like to email us, just be nice. By the way, I'm looking to my left. The first thing I'm seeing is Thomas Massey has announced that he will vote against President Trump's proposal to enact the bill, you know, the great American, unbelievable bill. We like Tom Massey. As we have said to you, if we had no choice, we'd have to vote for it, but we think the spending debt and deficit suck, and they know it sucks, and they're BSing us that it doesn't suck, and they've attached it to the tax cuts, making permanent so they can get it passed, so they can continue to grow the size of government infinitum. These Republicans are now Democrats, and of course the Democrats are now Marxists.
Starting point is 00:02:30 But that's for another day. And by the way, we'd say it to their face. Ladies and gentlemen, as we have promised, we start with the markets. And I wrote down, I don't usually do this often, but I actually wrote down a bunch of names, one after the other, to cover today for your listening pleasure. We're not telling you to buy them, sell them, short them, or cover them. We're letting you know what we think, and it is your money. you get to decide.
Starting point is 00:03:04 For starters, I got to start with gold because gold has been persistent. It is now, remember we said about three weeks ago, we thought it'd go range bound. We're now in one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight weeks of trading range for gold. And letting you know,
Starting point is 00:03:25 it's on the verge of breaking above those eight weeks. It gapped up today, for whatever reason, and we'll see what the next few days bring. But it's riding up moving averages the way bullish markets usually do, which takes us to the gold miners. I would suggest the same thing. Gold miners had a better day than gold on a percentage basis, which is actually good to see. And silver acts just fine. finally playing a little bit of catch-up, which it has, and so far, so good. So we start with the gold, the gold miners, and the silver.
Starting point is 00:04:10 And there are many that say this is happening because of all the crap the politicians are doing. And guess what is happening? The dollar keeps dropping. The dollar is in a classic bear market as it rides. down the 50-day moving average, which is now descending. If you're not sure what we mean by that, it's just the characteristic, a roadmap of a bearish market. And the thing that sucks is anybody who flies over to Europe right now going to pay a bunch more. Anybody really flies around the globe right now going to pay much more because our dollar against other currencies,
Starting point is 00:04:52 splat. And we'll see what that means over time. They tell us it helps our multinationals, but I'm not so sure a dollar-syncing is a good thing as far as confidence goes. Next, and by the way, we're going one by one by one today, and then we'll do some whining complaining. Tesla. So yesterday on the show, we talked about an analyst that said it's gone to 120 this year, in the next year. And the reason he said that is because of he believes that delivery. on a worldwide basis, going to be down 20%.
Starting point is 00:05:35 And we're hearing in many areas around the globe, they've been down 40, 50, and 60% year over year on a monthly basis. We're not going to quibble with that. We're going to let the market decide. We're just letting you know he's right on the numbers. And every time I see a bullish pundit or analysts on Tesla, they're talking about things to come, about how many of the robotaxies they're going to sell,
Starting point is 00:06:08 how many robots they're going to sell, and all that. My thought process on it at this juncture, they better sell a lot of those things because the numbers on actual Teslas are not very good. If that changes, we'll let you know. By the way, on another note with Tesla, their use car prices have been plunging, plunging.
Starting point is 00:06:36 But I must tell you, I've been to Tesla twice. About a year and a half ago, I was in one of the SUVs, and I was in it at Christmas time. It was playing Christmas songs, and it was the fastest, fastest, fastest freaking car off the line I've ever been in. This past week I was in one, and I sat behind the wheel, and I let it drive itself.
Starting point is 00:06:57 I thought it was amazing. Of course, I had my hands right around the wheel just in case, because you know I don't trust that crap. So just let you know on the Tesla front, right now, it's in bearish mode, had a big drop on the fight with Trump. There's a kumbaya now who has rallied up for a few days. Had a rough day today. We'll see how it goes.
Starting point is 00:07:22 Just not trading great this second. but everybody's bullish on it except for this one man. I think there's a couple of other analysts that are not happy with it either. United Health. Simple, U and H. As we told you, this has been 2,000 points of Dow since mid-April. The story goes that there are claims, and there's a supposedly Justice Department looking,
Starting point is 00:07:55 them criminally, who knows how it plays out, but supposedly that they are denying claims at a much bigger percentage rate than others. So the stock's been trashed. I did tell you the CEO and CFO bought $30 million a stock. I think around $2.90, it's $318 up $7, almost $8 today. Looks like, and may I state for the record, this is a very news-driven stock. looks like it's trying to put in a bottom here. If you go look at the chart, you will see the last one, two, three, three and a half, four weeks. In it around that $2.9,300 couldn't get through it. So maybe could be the low.
Starting point is 00:08:42 And the last two days, especially yesterday, good pickup and volume up about $7.60. Am I going to play it? I don't play news-driven stuff. No, no, no, no, no. And I don't like when there's something hanging overhead. I tend to stay away because you never know what the next day is going to bring. Next, I told you we're going to go stock by stock, sector by sector. GameStop.
Starting point is 00:09:18 Did you know that GameStop today was down 23% and it was actually a little worse, down $6.57 to under $22. The news. And for the life of me, how do I put this best? I don't know what the hell this company's doing. They're doing a $1.75 billion convertible note offering. 1.75 billion doing 32
Starting point is 00:09:57 they're going to use it for general purposes and in a matter of consistency with their investment policy but they're getting involved in Bitcoin and all kinds of weird stuff and all I can tell you is that stock's breaking down it's dead
Starting point is 00:10:18 1.75 billion is about 18% of the market cap. 18% thus down 23% today. And you know why 23? Shareholders are pissed off. Pissed off that they're getting diluted. So just let you know the GameStop. And boy, has that been a noisy,
Starting point is 00:10:49 meme thing of a bob for a very very long time and as you know as a company the GameStop business has not been very great not been very good and the talk of going
Starting point is 00:11:03 into Bitcoin should nauseate anybody and by the way there are a few other companies that have done that up next tit for tat we got a few more to cover and then we'll wind
Starting point is 00:11:17 to complain about something I'm Gary this is the one known the Investors Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs,
Starting point is 00:12:05 We'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-2-5-59. That's 8-8-5-5-9. That's 888-4-22-55-9. Investment Advisory Services offered through call-bomb Capital Manor. Hi, I'm Dr. Jay Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists
Starting point is 00:12:44 to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. like I get a stomachache every time that I eat and it just becomes like a lifestyle where oh yeah you know I just I have a stomachache every day
Starting point is 00:13:14 or I'm constantly feeling like gassy and all of those things are not something that generally if you have a healthy gut you should be living with so that's when we deep dive we deep dive into your medication we deep dive into your OTC medication and then at that point we can probably identify
Starting point is 00:13:29 something that we can change hear the full conversation plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeart Radio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. Here's a quick podcast for all you true crime fans. The case of the missing Reese's.
Starting point is 00:13:54 It was me at the store with my mouth. Motive? Um, they're Reese's. What was I going to do? Stop myself. Tune in next time to see if I do it again. Spoiler, I will. Wow, that had everything.
Starting point is 00:14:12 Reese's, suspense, Reese's. OnDEC is built to back small businesses like yours. Whether you're buying equipment, expanding your team, or bridging cash flow gaps, OnDex loans up to $400,000 help make it happen fast. Rated A-plus by the Better Business Bureau and earning thousands of five-star trust pilot reviews, OnDec delivers funding you can count on. Apply in minutes at on deck.com. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDec or Celtic Bank.
Starting point is 00:14:43 OnDec does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amount subject to lender approval. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum.
Starting point is 00:15:05 It doesn't get better than this. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. A quiet day for the indices today. We'll get to the final numbers in a second. And by the way, with the game stop, it hit $36 two weeks ago. It's $21.80 as I speak. Find good management, good people, not fly-by-nights, and not goofballs. They are acting against shareholder interests.
Starting point is 00:15:48 this company. Diluting shareholders 18% with a convertible is what is known as the big market middle finger on shareholders. That's the story behind that.
Starting point is 00:16:04 Besides all their goofy stuff throughout the years, by the way, just letting you know. Symbols GME, by the way. And by the way, nothing personal. This is business. Next, Oracle.
Starting point is 00:16:22 So we always have this little, we have these little theories. Some are insane, some are meaningful. We always have this little theory when a company reports crappy numbers, but they reported as fantastic numbers. We get weirded out on that. But when those crappy numbers are bought up with a, Further, it wants us to investigate, it implores us to investigate, why would crappy numbers have a stock go big time to the upside? And when I use the word crappy, we're talking about earnings that are down year over year, flat year over year, up a couple of percent year over year.
Starting point is 00:17:18 We're not even talking about the no-sales BS. So Oracle, we watched a couple of annals, hey, boy, were those just fantastic numbers? Like, what the hell are these people talking about? Fantastic numbers. Oracle's earnings year over year of 4%. We have a word for that, pedestrian. 4%.
Starting point is 00:17:51 for a growth company it stinks nothing personal and by the way we love Larry Ellison we think he's one of the greatest CEOs you know why we love him so much because he is so big he's created so much wealth
Starting point is 00:18:09 do you see him very often you don't right he lies in the bushes doesn't need to be the big celebrity he just does his job job does his work, all that crap. Anyway, the stock opened up today of 189, up 13 bucks.
Starting point is 00:18:33 No big deal. It's still a good move for a big cap. It's right now with a couple of minutes left in the market of $23. Actually, at one point today, Oracle hit two, it was up about 26. We find that quite amazing. for 4% earnings growth? Now sales ticked up a little bit year over year to 11%. And I looked at their guidance and I'm thinking,
Starting point is 00:19:08 boy, they had to give big guidance. No. Their earning guidance is also single digits for the quarter they're in right now. So what does that have me do? I'm going to spend some time tonight looking into it. What am I missing that institutions, not Aunt Mary and Uncle Bob, but big institutions are jumping into Oracle today, which by the way has it at the yearly high. And I do believe, is it an all-time high?
Starting point is 00:19:50 You bet it is. Now, it did get over the big 200 number and fell back below, and that's kind of normal. but something must be going on and just let you know your handsome and buffed hosts are going to try and figure that out because we believe 1 plus 1 equals 2
Starting point is 00:20:12 we do believe there's usually a rhyme and a reason to something so just let you know this is a what we call what the heck is going on here Oracle and by the way volume was 5
Starting point is 00:20:31 times average more than that average daily 9.4 mil did 52.6 million today dang that's oracle next by the way just so you know with like a minute to go in the market the Dow was up 30 and the NASDAQ was up 10 with like a minute or two to go finished up 101 and 46 welcome to my world so the Dow up 101. S&P 23, NASDAQ 46, NASDAQ 152, socks up 16, transports down 17. Russell 2000 was down. We'll go through the good stuff in a little while. We're still on little tidbits.
Starting point is 00:21:21 Next, NVIDIA. Do you remember last January? In fact, on a Friday, January 5th, we stated to you a break above $505 on Invidia that was before the split. We said buy the hell out of it. Because it would be a six-month breakout with price tightening up at the highs and arguably the most important technology stock in the market, if not the most important stock. We didn't know what happened on Monday, but on the 8th it broke out, but up 90%. Remember that?
Starting point is 00:22:03 and the weeks leading up to it, we were letting you know that it was getting close. Remember that? Hope you did. Hope you do. We got a lot of emails on it. Nvidia. So it's a little bit of a different story now. Why is it a different story now?
Starting point is 00:22:24 Because the company is a lot bigger. In fact, it's got a $3.5 trillion market cap. It is a lot tougher to move a stock. when you have that big of a market cap. It's a fact of life. It's a fact of life. We're just letting you know that Nvidia hit a high last June of 140.76.
Starting point is 00:22:52 We just got above it in the last few days. But the yearly high in November hit 152.89. And in I believe, Let me get the date right. January early hit 153.13. Those were not closing highs. The closing highs happened to be about 149.43. The fact that it has gone a year without any gains, guess what we're about to tell you. That will be up next on Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter.
Starting point is 00:24:04 In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. like I get a stomach egg every time that I eat and it just becomes like a lifestyle where oh yeah you know I just I have a stomachache every day or I'm constantly feeling like gassy
Starting point is 00:24:32 and all of those things are not something that generally if you have a healthy gut you should be living with so that's when we deep dive we deep dive into your medication we deep dive into your OTC medication and then at that point we can probably identify something that we can change hear the full conversation
Starting point is 00:24:49 plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeart Radio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. Here's a quick podcast for all you true crime fans. The case of the missing Reese's. It was me at the store with my mouth. Motive? Um, they're Reese's. What was I going to do? Stop myself. Tune in next time to see if I do it again. Spoiler, I will. Wow, that had everything. Reeses, suspense, reeses. OnDec is built to back small businesses like yours. Whether you're buying equipment,
Starting point is 00:25:38 expanding your team, or bridging cash flow gaps, OnDex loans up to $400,000 help make it happen fast. Rated A-plus by the Better Business Bureau and earning thousands of five-star trust pilot reviews, OnDec delivers funding you can count on. Apply in minutes at on deck.com. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDec or Celtic Bank. OnDec does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amounts subject to lender approval.
Starting point is 00:26:03 We're listening to America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on its feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Coltbaum. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him.
Starting point is 00:26:40 And welcome once again to investors. Edge. Thanks for joining. By the way, very much lagging software stock Adobe closed at 413 and change. I got at 426 in change as we speak. We'll see how it plays out. It was just 436 and it dropped 10 bucks. NVIDIA. Are you listening carefully? I have no idea how NVIDIA plays out. And I'm really not sure of the number. and why do I say that? Because the highs in November through January were very sawtooth-like. You know what a sore tooth is?
Starting point is 00:27:31 They look like M's, sharp M's, the point at the high of the M's. Very tough to gauge. But we're letting you know if it gets near there, tightens up and breaks out, that would be a big trading range breakout akin to what happened last January.
Starting point is 00:28:00 With one solid difference, there is no chance if it breaks out of getting 90%. It's too big. But I'll take 25, so stay tuned. it did finish near the highs of the last couple of weeks today but you're still still dealing with that November to January period where people right now who bought back then are thanking the Lord that it's getting close back to them
Starting point is 00:28:36 which should attract some resistance and we'll let you know be ready that is one long trading range ladies and gentlemen one big big long huge trading range and we love big huge long trading range breakouts but again it's a huge company and we suspect there is no chance of a 90% move but we'll take a 25 and also the other part of the equation why it's not going to be a 90% move there is no chance they're going to be growing. At least this is my opinion, they're not going to grow like they use them. And massive growth rate, which is decelerated.
Starting point is 00:29:31 But if they can re-accelerate just a little bit, would be good news. There's your NVIDIA. Next, oil. We're just letting you know we're watching oil prices. Oil prices up, bad, oil prices down. good interest rates up bad interest rates down good it's cost of capital cost of energy and oil opened down today finished up there is a wild card there's a lot rumblings about Israel gonna knock the hell out of Iran and some of their nuclear
Starting point is 00:30:15 crap don't know if that's gonna happen I am not privy go look up the streets of Hormuz And you'll understand what we're talking about when it comes to Iran and the possibilities. That is your oil talk of the day. Next, the big banks, they're acting okay. Nothing special. They're low beta. They don't move like some of these nuclear stocks that went up 70% in a day that have no sales.
Starting point is 00:31:00 But they're acting pretty decent and they're trying and just letting you know that as long as they continue to act the way they've been acting, we're okay. If they start to turn down, you'll hear from us. Just let you know. Those are the big banks. Microsoft. Dang. Never underestimate. So Microsoft gaps up on earnings.
Starting point is 00:31:36 Reverses that day. sits around for a few days, breaks above a little range. And really, there was a little bit of a place to buy it 445, 450. It's 479 in six weeks. That's pretty good for a Microsoft, just letting you know. Their growth is in the mid-teens, and their market cap is $3.55 trillion. and full disclosure, I was surprised when any company had a market cap of $1 trillion. It's a testimony to these great companies.
Starting point is 00:32:18 It really is that they can get these type of market caps. Then again, Microsoft does $7.14, $21, $2,000, $270, $270, $2,000, $12-time sales. kind of sort of, kind of sort of in line. That's a little bit of Microsoft time. And then there's, we're moving on, by the way. The president, my president, who we root on so much, so dearly, but on some things he is so wrong.
Starting point is 00:33:11 And hopefully one day I can meet him. And I really, I have never used. ever my title I have a title I am a Fox News business contributor been that way for years just signed another decent term contract I have never used that to gain entry or gain any favor ever whatsoever but man oh man I wish that the president or president of United States has probably seen me on TV because he does watch Fox. I would love to get a call from him and sit down with him and explain the error of his ways. And I can talk his ear off on the tariffs. I don't believe he'd listen. And he possibly cursed me out for all I know. We think he's
Starting point is 00:34:09 so wrong on the tariffs. And he's proven us right by getting us. rid of the big tariffs when he crashed the markets. But there's another part of the equation and there's the bond market. If we were the head of the central bank, what would we have done all these years? We have told you this many times. We would let the market dictate policy. The market really has a good feel for things. Why is Jay Powell a doofus? Because when inflation reared its ugly head, and he stated zero percent interest rates and was still printing money, he finally stopped printing money because we were coming out of COVID, and he watched the free market, not him, the real rates, the free market go north. And he sat there like a mummy.
Starting point is 00:35:18 and watched interest rates go higher and higher and higher. And when we're on radio and TV and saying inflation's picking up and Jay Powell caused it, nobody believed us. Everybody's blaming Biden, but he just added fuel to the fire with his idiotic spending.
Starting point is 00:35:42 It was Jay Powell. And of course, Jay Powell, what did he do? he didn't listen to the market he sat inflation's transitory don't worry the other adult the treasury secretary Janet Yellen ground zero another ground zero for massive easy money
Starting point is 00:36:02 and printing of money there's no inflation and then inflation showed up but it was transitory don't worry and of course it wasn't and he ended up having to play a lot of catch up and how he had to play catch up he had to raise rates He was not in line with the markets.
Starting point is 00:36:25 As the market yields kept going up, he had to play catch up. And that's what caused the bear market. He finally played catch up. He was in line. Up next. And then what? And where does Trump, the president, have it wrong? Up next on Investor's Edge.
Starting point is 00:36:48 Hi, I'm Dr. Jay Goodman, host of Beyond the Script. the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomach ache every time that I eat. And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just, I have a stomach kick every day.
Starting point is 00:37:45 Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeartRadio.
Starting point is 00:38:15 Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. Here's a quick podcast for all you true crime fans. The case of the missing Reese's. It was me at the store with my mouth. Motive? Um, they're Reese's. What was I going to do? Stop myself.
Starting point is 00:38:35 Tune in next time to see if I do it again. Spoiler, I will. That had everything. Reese's suspense, Reese's. Cash flow crunch. OnDec's small business line of credit gives your business immediate access to funds up to $200,000 right when you need it. Cover seasonal dips, manage payroll, restock inventory, or tackle unexpected expenses without missing a beat with flexible draws, transparent pricing, and control over repayment. Get funded quickly and confidently.
Starting point is 00:39:08 Apply today at ondeck.com. Funds could be available as soon as tomorrow. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by On Deck or Celtic Bank. OnDak does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amount subject to lender approval. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go.
Starting point is 00:39:30 In investors edge. With Gary Culper. So, uh, I must apologize. The first thing out of the box, I should have brought up what happened with Boeing. the tragedy in India, a 787 crashed upon takeoff. I am no genius on airlines, but I've studied it a little bit. The jet had no lift. It had no lift.
Starting point is 00:40:22 It lost all ability to lift. And it crashed. And amazingly, it looks like, one man, and seat 11A lived with hardly a scratch on him the plane freaking blew up everybody else is dead and one person lived unbelievable anyway what a tragedy i've been on the 787 multiple times it is a fantastic jet and just another boeing i'll tell you murphy's law was down 20 when it happened only finished down 10 and changed today man oh man whenever I get on an airplane you I always know the most important parts of the
Starting point is 00:41:18 flight is the takeoff in the landing and there's a video of exactly what happened it just was gliding up and just lost lift and I gather the black box is gonna tell us everything there was a quick May Day call from the pilot and you know the rest. Anyway, I apologize for not bringing that up first. Okay, we segue back. By the way, Adobe was up $25 bucks in the aftermarket. It's now down three.
Starting point is 00:41:55 Welcome to the aftermarket. Don't blink. So, J. Powell had it all wrong. All wrong. Got the 5.5.5%. and realized he was a point above the market. Excuse me. A point and a half.
Starting point is 00:42:20 Ten year yield was three and three quarters. He started to lower rates, which he should have done. Because these one and a half points above. And by the way, he handles short-term rates, not the all-important long-term rates. He came down, he came down, he kept coming down.
Starting point is 00:42:37 But what did the 10-year yield do? Went from three-and-three-quarters and back up to like 4-8. Why would that happen? Because the market was worried that he was no longer fighting the inflation by lowering rates. But we got some equilibrium to the point where most of the time over the last year, give or take a couple of times we went above 4-6 and then a couple of times we went below 4-2. but we've stayed pretty much stable.
Starting point is 00:43:17 The 10-year yields at 4.357, J. Powell's at 4.5⁄2.4.5. Right in line with free markets. Yet the president wants him to cut by a whole point. I believe he's wrong. There is every chance if J. Powell went from 4.5 down to three and a quarter, the 10-year yield would go from 4-3 up to 5 because the market,
Starting point is 00:43:53 the free market, would worry that he was no longer fighting. And that's his job. Inflation. The fact that the bond market has been stable is a good thing. The last thing we would want is the bond market to go haywire again. The reason the president keeps saying, this is because easy money is good for a president, but it may not be good for the markets. And you don't want a market to go haywire. And by the way, that's not a guarantee, but we have
Starting point is 00:44:40 proven through the years to have a pretty good feel for the Fed and the markets themselves. the president should zip it and leave the doodalow. I think J. Powell could cut rates a quarter point. Maybe another quarter point after that. But do not just jump all this and cut like crazy. I think the market's quickly, the stock market could go north. But then. But then what?
Starting point is 00:45:18 Now the president, J. Powell's done in 26. I loathe the fact that the president's talking about bringing somebody on. That's going to do his bidding. That is a worst case scenario. And I would tell this to the president. I would show him the charts of what the 10 year did as J. Powell was lowering his rates. and where the president pretty much has it wrong right now and always be wary of somebody who believes they can do no wrong and believes they're omnipotent. You know what happens to the omnipotent? You do Liberation Day and you watch the market crash
Starting point is 00:46:04 and then have to unwind liberation day immediately or else and then lie about it and blame it on everybody else and then tell everybody else to forget it and how perfect you are. You're not. That is the story of the Fed and the bond market. And don't email me and tell me I have Trump the arrangement syndrome. We have spent hours praising him on many other things. And by the way, we're in this camp about what he's doing in California.
Starting point is 00:46:44 Those people are crooked, anarchists, doing damage. What the hell are they doing looting apple stores? Throwing bricks at police. Blocking people from getting to businesses. We're in this camp on that. That all said, you all have a great evening drive carefully. When you get home, do like we do. Won't we market intensive today?
Starting point is 00:47:17 then I say when you get home, do like we do, make sure you hug your family, make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise stay well, be well. Have a great evening. Until tomorrow. Good night. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to garyk.com. That's garykay.com. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretched than competing brands, and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer.
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