Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - An Excellent Week In Review [11.10.2023]

Episode Date: November 10, 2023

garykaltbaum.com

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That's Tommyjohn.com, code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host. A thanks of being with us today.

Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening. It is November 10th, 2023. It's Friday. Hope you are having a good day. I am up in, as I look out my window, New York City, taking care of mom and dad, 92 and 90 years old. 92 and 90.

And I'm only 32. They had me in an old age. Anyway, hope you're having a good day. Traveled safe, everything good. Unfortunately, JetBlue, you know, you're going. Lately, JetBlue. First off, getting there safe is everything. That's really all that matters, right?

but the last couple I think three out of the last five times on JetBlue the TVs didn't work they got to fix that up again did not work last night so I just hung out and they have internet that didn't work too well either but that's

not really there fall too much anyway but I got there safe and that's all that matters this morning I went to the Ron Barron conference it's an all day affair but I went through the I didn't get I didn't do the afternoon full and fair disclosure one of my son's work for barren capital a mutual fund company and one of the big holders of Tesla and SpaceX has made a bazillion dollars in Tesla they've owned it very very long time ago and cheap and you know Tesla in the last couple years hasn't done as well

it's come down but still way ahead from years ago they had the Tesla cars there they had the the the truck i forgot what it's called cyber truck whatever quite the interesting looking but i i had to mention you know we've been doing lessons on this show and i'm different from barren in that once they sink the their teeth into a company they love. As long as that company's doing well and as expected, they will work through good and bad times. And what I mean by that is they'll hold.

And they're not unlike other funds, but they'll hold through very rough markets. And I just sit and I'm like, how do they do that? You know? And that goes for all the mutual funds out there. I always ask, how do they? do that because as you know in bare markets and this is a fact it's been studied upon and studied in bare markets that past leaders of the last bull market will drop on average 70% it's true but they have this thesis that they believe that hey i'm going to find these companies i'm going to

know them well i'm going to stay on top of them and if they keep growing the way eventually they'll cut through all the mustard. And then I was thinking to myself, on the trading front, yeah, we're different. But on the investing front, we're really not. In that, I am

constantly looking for greatness. That's what I'm looking for, greatness. Without getting into what I own right now, but the companies that I own have growing earnings, growing sales, lead their industry, and of course have great relative strength in the market.

I mean, you could say that about companies and they're down 50% from their highs. But that's what I look for too. And, you know, when I say to you, it's tongue in cheek, but I actually mean it, if Taylor Swift was a stock, that's the one I want to own big time. greatness. She's now on a foreign tour and selling out left and right. Do you know that she was in Argentina last night? 43% of the audience flew from the United States to see her.

We're talking demand. Her movie, I believe I saw $230 million. And just so you know, to make that movie, they did it. It's a concert movie. It's the music. It's not like it took a lot. So it's like big, gigantic profit. We're looking for Taylor Swift's.

It's simple as that. And throughout the decades, we have found them mostly technology, medical, retail. On occasion, we'll find them elsewhere. And what do I mean by that? Well, in commodities, you can get these commodity bull markets where earnings go from nothing to skyrocket because if a commodity company's cost to produce that commodity stays constant, but the price skyrockets that they can get for it, guess what the stock's going to do? On top of that, I don't know how many years ago it was. dry ships simple DRYS

a shipper they went into this gigantic bull market for those type of stocks guess what so as I was sitting there watching I was there specifically in the morning because I wanted to see a bunch of these

portfolio managers and what they said and how they talk and they really all did sound like me and by the way we're not just talking baron there are other great growth funds out there that think the same way. And when I look at mutual funds and then I look to see, oh, what are the top 20 holdings? And I always looking for what mutual funds are doing the best.

And then I'll look at the top 20 holdings and I'm like, wow, I got that, I got that, I got that, I got that. Oh, yeah, I got that too. And what's the constant? greatness. And greatness for me is defined by how strong their sales growth are year over year. And does that equate to strong earnings growth year over year? Versus there are companies that have very strong sales growth, but they lose their butts.

Rivian, they lose 33,000 bucks every car they sell. But their sales growth has gone from nothing. to a bunch. I'm not going to play that one. And of course, the stock has paid a penalty for it. Yeah, sales were up 149%. But they lost $1.19 a share. So just let you know how my morning went.

And if anybody wants to know, how am I able to watch the market? Well, first off, I have other eyes besides mine. But I have a system on my phone that, I basically have the really the most important 50 stocks

on there in real time with charts God bless Steve Jobs that's all I can tell you has made my life very easy

God bless William O'Neill and company made my life very easy and of course my hard work makes my life very easy oh and by the way they had entertainment

Adam Sandler was the comedy entertainment. I believe was Justin Timberlake in the afternoon, but I had I had to get back to get in front of screens. And Adam Sandler's good. You know what you know somebody's funny when he doesn't even try to be funny. You know there are comedians that, you know, try to be funny. He just started gaping and talking and you start laughing your ass off. That's what it came down to. So it was real good.

Barron puts on a great conference. If you own his funds, you're allowed to go to it. It's every year Lincoln Center. By the way, we are not telling you to buy sell shorter cover. Well, short of cover. Buy or sell Barron funds. We're just letting you know in full disclosure. My son works there.

I don't do mutual funds. I put together my own little fund by individual stocks. You can go check them out if you want. we'll leave that to you. So that was my day. I just felt I was getting a little bit introspective because I always want to learn. Until I am six feet under, I believe every day is a learning experience. And you always want to learn from them.

They have a great record. And that's why I follow other growth funds throughout the years that have just beaten the market. That's why I tell you there are certain people I follow in the markets, only a select few. I know political side people, some people who piss the George Soros, but I want to hear anything he has to say about the markets. The same goes for Stanley Drucker Miller used to work for him, Paul Tudor Jones, and there's a select few of David Ryan, Gil Morales, both worked for O'Neill. I don't know if you know a gentleman by name of Jim Rople, also Big O'Neill. guy, brilliant man, and there are a few others that we follow very closely. Why? Greatness. And nobody's perfect. Everybody has their moments. But we're looking for standing the test in time.

Up next, today's market. This is the one to only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be,

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you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change.

See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as Polly. podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears

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The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And well, once again to investors, Eds, thanks for being with us today. So, we have certain rules of the market. We've, some of them are one sentence long. Some of them are a little longer. But one of the normal rules that used to be, remember, rules are only as good as long as they work.

You know, when we talk correlations in the market, correlations are only good. as long as they work. And correlations always change. One of the old rules used to be when you have a vicious reversal in the market, in other words, the market's up strong and finishes down. In other words, the market's down big on the open and finishes up.

The rule used to be you're going to get further move towards that. In other words, if you open, very bad and you finish up, you're going to get follow through the upside. If you open up strong and you finish down badly, you're going to get follow through to the downside. That's one of the old rules. Not anymore. Yesterday was another one of those vicious reversals to the downside. Yesterday, I'll give you an example of one, Broadcom. At one time yesterday was at $930.30. It closed at 9-11.

It just sank like a stone late into the afternoon, just like everything else. The NASDAQ yesterday was real strong and just sank like a stone into the close. a vicious reversal. Broadcom was up 46 bucks today. 5%. It's a $900 stock. The NASDAQ was up a juicy

2%. NASDAQ 100, a little more than 2%. The Dow yesterday, pretty crappy reversal. The Dow finished up 391 today. S&P, vicious reversal yesterday.

And full disclosure. I had a little piece of the S&P and I sold it. The S&P was up 1.4% today, which is not going to change my world, by the way. We have noticed since the Fed became the Fed, the interlopers, the interferers, for whatever reason, those follow-throughs do not happen. By the way, that's either way. We've seen great reversals to the upside and we're thinking, oh, we're off to the races. And then the market gaps down the next day. That said, in the last couple of weeks, we've just basically said to you, pay attention to the new yearly high list. And there was a simple reason why. If there are no new yearly.

highs in the market at all. And that was the case. And then the market puts in some sort of a low of unknown price and time. You got to know which of the first new yearly highs. Why? Well, three words and another rule, just in case. Because very simply just in case. We get the end of the year rally, which by the way, would still be 50 days away, not trading days, but total. If we get that, what do you think leads, the worst stocks or the strength? So we're just letting you know, get on that. Get on that. That's all we're going to own.

leading stocks and leading groups and when wrong be wrong fast and be wrong small when right try to let them run not like selling the S&P like I did yesterday which by the way no biggie now if I sold the stock that went up 7%

today I'd be pissed that was not the case so very good day today what's another rule it's a day of rules here on investors edge the semiconductors. So yesterday, and I think we told you this yesterday, the semiconductor equipment stocks were going, wow,

and they reversed. Lamb Research. At one time yesterday was 668 and closed at 650. KLAC at one time yesterday was 520. was 520 and closed at 507. And I'm thinking, oh man, they reversed them. That's not good. That's not good.

You know what that means? They're going to sell them off today. They ripped them to the upside. So what you got was a hint yesterday that these stocks wanted to go higher, but the market reversed yesterday now that the market got its legs. And by the way, the market got hit yesterday because of a bond auction. KLA 10Corp, let me give you a little hint. Guess what listed hit at the close of business today?

Catching my drift? Broadcom, another semiconductor. Guess what list that hit today? Yeah. In software, big cap name, Adobe. Guess what list it hit today? By the way, it broke out four days ago. Oh, that's right, that list.

And guess what? The list is still very small. Very small, that list. And by the way, with the Dow up 391, the S&P up 67, the NASDAQ 276, the NASDAQ 141, the transports 160, you ready for this? there were 55 new yearly highs on the New York, 127 new yearly lows, and on the NASDAQ, 64 new highs, 310 new lows.

What's with that? That I'm going to have to investigate over the weekend. Keep in mind, when I say 55 new highs in the New York, they really aren't any. Excuse me, they really aren't 55. It's more like 15 or 20. Some of them could be a muni bond fund or a SPAC, and on the NASDAQ, 64, there's not 64.

I would say of that 119 on those two major indices, it's probably 40. Hey, up next, we'll continue on the markets. Much more. This is the one only investor's edge. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day.

There's zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands and their innovative horizontal quick draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com Code Comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer

to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain.

Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need. explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads,

meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. We're listening to America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy.

With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. And welcome. once again to Investors Edge. So I was talking semiconductors, where and I? What's one of our big rules? I've never seen a bad market to the downside when semiconductors are starting to roll. Now, as I have said to you in semiconductor land, it has been five, six, seven names that have ruled a roost, while so many names,

are just a horror show, way down in their bare markets. Today they lifted all boats. I'm going to have to do a big measurement of that over the weekend. The stocks that had been the strength, NVIDIA, even though it's just in a five to six month trading range, Broadcom, which broke out today, to a lesser extent, I call them the trifecter of, semiconductor equipment, applied materials, KLA 10 core and lamb research. All were having

great days yesterday but reversed. They came right back, got it all back from yesterday and more today. But after that, it's been a mixed bag. Another name coming on though now, a big name, Advanced Micro Devices, AMD, on their big 4% earnings growth. And may I also state for the record, and I don't know why. Micron. New Yearly High. For a company that is losing more money than I can even count

on a 50% drop in sales, what gives? I have no idea. I'm just letting you know if those big semis really showing up. And we'll see if it continues. So big tech,

mega cap tech, little less than mega-com. The cap, we'll call it, as we said, big tech. That's the strength. Simple as that. Small caps continue to be crap. They were up today, but they're just lagging so badly.

Big time. We'll see one day that may change. Oh, I take that back. I guarantee you that will change one day. I don't know if it's five years from now, five months from now, or five days from now. We'll watch. What else? Emerging markets or more effectively known as submerging markets, they have woefully underperform

for like ever? When is that going to change? Or is it just something fundamental that a lot of these emerging markets are run by control freaks? Oh, like here. The good news is we still have a very, very, very. very, very not controlled business, business, though they try very much. Just broad market today.

Financials are up, the economically sensitive stocks are up, and my number one stock I always follow for economically sensitive is United Rentals URI back above the 50 day. Really, no much in the way of weakness today. And I must say, the 10-year yield was kind of flat. What gives? Don't care. Remember, what's the number one rule? It's not the news.

It's how the market reacts to the news. Our job is to read. And all we want to do is find launching pads that turn into good uptrends. What's a launching pad? Find me a stock that's been trading between. 90 and 100 for four months and breaks to 100 on triple average volume because their earnings are up 70% and their revenues are up 35% or better and there's eight other stocks in the group doing the same that's the launching pad what's the up trend starts the stair steps up and up and up until

they decide to go down and down and down and down and down that's all we're trying to do what's our other rules we don't buy junk we never ever buy junk how do we define junk money losers simple as that money losers we don't buy companies that lose money we don't buy biotechs with no sales we don't buy schlock we don't buy touts we don't buy stupidity. We don't buy spacks. Catching the drift. It's pretty simple. Quality, strength, institutional sponsorship. Hey Gary, what the heck is that? Well, we know the big institutions, the mutual funds, the hedge funds, they're in there because they know something good's going on. We don't buy bare markets. What? How do you not buy bare markets? What are you saying you're

infallible? Oh, we didn't say that. We just saying we don't buy bare markets. How do we define bare markets? Stocks and downtrends. Sectors and downtrends. And you'll have to assume we know what a downtrend looks like. Those are the rules. And of course, and I take it back, our number one rule is not, it's not the news, it's how things react to news. Number one rule is, and by far, when wrong, be wrong fast and be wrong small. Which by the way has its good and bad. You know what the good is we're never going to lose big. You know what the bad is. Every now and then, we'll, you sell something they turn back up. Guess what? We can buy it again. That's the best part about the market. It's completely liquid. We're not buying and selling

antiques. So very good day. Led by semiconductors, especially the big ones, big tech, especially the bigger tech, software, especially the bigger software, but not limited to bigger software. And just growthy, growth stocks. Monday, we have absolutely no clue what happens on Monday. But I will tell you this, just the pattern recognition, today could have been a significant day. Edged above a little range, you completely gave a certain finger to yesterday's reversal.

And I just felt the leadership got a little more umphy today. Umphi. O-O-O-O-M-P-H-Y. I added the Y. And I must say again, it's never too bad when I've seen semiconductor stroll. And I got to also add a Costco. Looks like it's ready to break out of range.

While the retail stocks have been a horror show except for a few, we'll see what that means. So, maybe we have one of those end of years. It would be nice because I got news for you. Since July, the market sucked. It looks like the market turned with some warts, which may have unwarranted themselves today. I'm making up a bunch of words. And that's the gist of today. I have no complaints.

Small cap still crappy? I don't own any. I haven't gone near it since I can't even begin to tell you. I take it back. Do you know one time in the last year I bought a small cap ETF for my ETF accounts? I had a sell, I think, within a week. I think I met a dime. Don't quote me on that, but I'm pretty sure I made 10 cents before I got too scared.

And then they trashed the small caps about a week later. I thought I was right and then I thought I was wrong. Which takes you to another rule. Always be flexible in the market as to what you see. What's the next pin to be pulled? So it's Rules Day here at Investor's Edge. I hope you're taking it to heart. Very important.

And I repeat. I have no clue what happens Monday. Up next, what I am reading. This is the one-only investor's edge. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands.

And their innovative horizontal quick draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with code comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card.

Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain.

Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, Upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. You're listening to.

What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One. Change. Ready, go. Action! In The Hester's Edge. With Gary Culpa. Okay.

So, by the way, there's, you know, some news of the day, and it's the same news you've been seeing, and there's protests. A bunch of these ass clowns that have absolutely no clue, what's going on,

they're following the leader, they're making crap up. I saw them interview some schmuck when he was asked about Hamas, called him freedom fighters. And then was asked, well, wait a minute, hold up, freedom fighters. Do freedom fighters behead babies and rape women and in the middle of raping them, shoot them in the head? Oh, that's all made up. No, the terrorists have been sat down and they're confessing everything.

Oh, they're being talked into confessing. Yeah. How do you argue those points? So again, we believe tick-tac-toe here with all that. You can't win, why even debate it? Stupid, racist, anti-Semitic, Jew-hating. I can go further, but that's what really it was all about. And again, all you need to know, Syria murdered a bazillion Syrians. Oh, by the way, with mustard gas.

Right now, Muslims in China are in internment camps, the Uighurs. Think about a million of them. See any protests on that? Oh, Russia's in Ukraine. Where's the big protests on Russia and Ukraine? Anybody, Bueller? I haven't seen one of those. No?

No. What about, what is it, Myanmar? Anybody read about that? Oh, Nigeria. Oh, wait a minute, Haiti. Haiti, that's kind of just south of us, right, the United States, right? Any protests of the murders and the gangs taken over the streets? Any protests?

Oh, that's right. No, I haven't seen them either. This is, they hate and are jealous of the greatness of the peaceful, hardworking, Israeli slash Jewish people. They hate greatness. Why? Because they're living in their own slop. And I would say it to their face,

but tick, tack, toe. You can't win. You don't play the game. That's all. And by the way, there's a coffee shop just about 20 blocks from where I am standing right now doing the show in New York City. Where owned by an Israeli, the baristas knew it was owned by her in Israeli. The Israeli owner put up a Israeli flag.

They all quit in mass. The story got out. Other coffee shops sent their baristas to go work there. and a thousand or two thousand people lined up and bought coffee when the guy was worried about going out of business. Do not also forget when you see these protests that is one one thousandth of the people out there. 99.999% are not those people

that don't have a freaking clue. that just like getting around in a little parade, ask any of them, show them a map. Ask them where Israel is. Ask them where Gaza is. Nine out of ten, they tell you Israel is next to California. So screw them all.

There is no room for any racism of any kind in this world. You know where we stand on any, against any. Race, creed, color, gender, denomination, short, tall, fat, skinny, redhead, brunette, blonde, does not matter. It's a simple thought process. Unfortunately, for a narrow majority, minority, not so simple. And don't get me started on anybody who praises these depraved animals. All right, segue. We were talking rules.

Just remember, these rules are, I couldn't use a culmination because we'll find more rules going forward. But it is a buildup of years of study and success and failure. and study and success and failure and study and success and failure and guess what we know we're going to be wrong again you know how we were wrong yes that we sold some of the S&P

you know how we know we were wrong it went up just like when we buy a stock and it goes down 10 cents we're already wrong It's what you do with that. And our job, until we're six feet under, is to learn every day from all that. And as we said, arduous, time, effort, focus, hours, and the study of success. That's why we've always told you, you want to be successful, study success stories.

what characteristics they all had. And pretty funny, people, success stories, they all had pretty much same characteristics. Get at it. You all have a great weekend, drive carefully when you get home, do like we do, quite simple. Make sure you hug your family, hug your children. They'll feel better, you'll feel better.

And this weekend I'll be taking care of the parents. Stay well, be well. Thanks for joining. Thanks for putting up with us. Back same time Monday. Peace out all. Take care. Bye-bye. This has been Investors' Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryKK.com.

That's GaryK.com. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John Underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands and their innovative of horizontal quick draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you.

Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with code comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect.

Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.