Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - AND ANOTHER

Episode Date: January 11, 2023

Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com

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Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for detail. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colpom, your host.

A thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. The 11th of January, yeah, 2023. As always, lots to cover, lots to talk about. Hope you've been listening. Hope you're having a good day. If you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com. We'll post it on our Twitter feed.

And you can follow us on Twitter. Just go to Twitter and put our name in or at garykad.com right there. You can email me, just be nice. That's not hard, right? All you got to do is be nice. Unlike some very weird people out there, ladies and gentlemen, there are some weirdos out there. You know what I'm talking about? everything's an enemy.

When they have real enemies they can address but everything else is an enemy and you've got to create something every day. You know what I'm talking about. And it's all of them. Us, we've got just a couple of targets.

The government that's taken us 31 trillion debt, the central bank that are control freaks and have destroyed all free markets, some of our owners of our favorite sports teams it's really about it but everybody else is in everybody's face

I don't even know what to tell you and it's all politics too everything's political what can I tell you hopefully you do not get caught up in what happened with the airlines today I still have not been able to find out exactly what they say happened but there was some sort of

glitch in the software and it pretty much shut down the airlines for some hours and really a lot of cancellations

a lot of movement man oh man and I still can't find out nobody has an answer just yet but we'll find out soon enough I'm glad I wasn't traveling today FAA meltdown oh wait a minute

Oh, FAA meltdown explained, but not saying how. It was a failure of Notam system, which is used to advise pilots. It's a notice with information on hazards and essential to pilots. No evidence of a cyber attack, but the whole system went down. Notice to air mission systems, that's what it is. Information essential to pilots and other flight personnel, but not known far enough in advance to be publicized by other means. Pilots are required to consult no-tams before every flight, which lists potential adverse impacts on flights from runway construction to the potential for icing. Information go up to 200 pages long for long-haul international flights and may include items such as runway closures, general bird hazard warnings, or low-altitude construction obstacles.

The system used to be telephone-based with pilots calling dedicate flight service stations for the information, but now is moved online. I guess the strings got unattached to the Dixie Cups. All right, hopefully they figured this crap out. Travel hell is no fun, that's all I can tell you. And I feel so bad for the people with Southwest over the holidays. Imagine over the holidays to see family and boom, you're toast. All right, anyway, that's the somewhat bad news of day. And we've got other things to cover.

But the good news. and we want to explain as much as we can explain over the airways. Every night we do webcasts for our membership. Yes, we have membership. That's what my peeps decided to call them. They're my members. And we show these things. So let me explain.

And we're very good at simplification. Imagine, let's do it again. if there were just 100 stocks in the stock market. And let's assume you know what an up trend and a downtrend is. Let's assume you know what a strong up trend and a downtrend is. Let's assume you know what a bull market and a bear market is. Let's assume you know what a bottoming process is versus a topping process. Let's just assume all that.

And there's only 100 stocks in the market. And 100 stocks are in an uptrend. and let's say they're equal weighted. And what we mean by that, each one accounts for 1%. Versus in the NASDAQ 100 with the top five names account for 40%. And by the way, had a good day today. So you got those 100 stocks and it is definable. They're in an uptrend.

A good uptrend. Pullbacks are contained. Volume is in good shape on the pullbacks volume. light on the rallies volume strong. If all hundred in an uptrend, guess what the indices that they represent are doing? The same. Now what happens if we're going to fast forward this. Usually we go 90, 80, 70. What happens if 40 of those hundreds stop going up? They don't go down, but they flatline. They go horizontal. Well, the indices, are not going to be as strong, but you still have 60 of the 100 in these nice uptrends.

What if those 60 go flatline and the 40 that went flat lines start to turn down? Well, you're not trending up anymore. You're flatlining and potentially trending down if those trending downs continue. And what if the 60 that are flatlining, trend down also. And all of a sudden, the hundred that we're going up are now going down. Well, the indices are going down. That's simple as that. And we're assuming you got a good eye. You got that? So let's do the opposite. You're in a bare market. You have 100 stocks. The 100 stocks are in downtrends

and each one represents 1%. And then 10 of them stop going down. They flatline at the bottom. Well, you still have 90 in a downtrend. What happens if 50 of them now stop going down and go flatline?

But the other 50 is still going down. Well, things not as bad. But you're in recognition of that 50s. 50 that stop going down. What if that 50 that stopped going down turn up? Not necessarily in a major up trend, but start going up. They're now offsetting the 50 that are still going down. But what happens if the 50 going down stop going down and they flatline? Well, you have 50 going up, 50 flatlining. Things are now better. And what happens if on a Monday, 10 more stocks get added to the uptrend. Not necessarily a big bull market, but stop going down and start turning up.

And what happens if another 10? And then another 10. And how do we read all this? Well, we have what we have known as advanced declines on a daily basis. And we read these advanced declines. And the only way things can turn for the better when you're in bad shape is that the advanced declines start doing better.

So let's unsimplify it because we measure 4,000 stocks on the New York and about 4,300 on the NASDAQ that we have just sitting in front of us. We don't really watch the Amex. Last week on Wednesday. Not a biggie. We noted, hey, good advance decline day.

Thursday, not event. Friday, a very strong day with really good advanced declines. What does that do? It means more stocks are going up than down, and potentially, as we go start looking and discovering, some of those things that were going down may have stopped going down and start going up. And then Monday, a crappy finish to the day,

to the day. We're up 300 on the Dow, I think 230 on the NASDAQ, finished flat on the Dow, actually a little bit down, and the NASDAQ only 60. But when all was said and done, advanced declines were pretty darn good. And we're just noticing some of the comatose names and the comatose sectors moving up. But we couldn't take too much out of that. Up next. What about yesterday and today? We'll explain. I'm Gary. This is the one only Investor's Edge.

Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals.

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55-59. Investment advisory services offered through Colbomb Capital Management. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. VentureX offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio.

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of quality programming with gary cult bomb it doesn't get better than this and what once again to investors edge so that was monday and crappy finish and you always have to question crappy finishes after strong days but okay yesterday another monster advanced decline day three to one then we come into today. Guess what? On the New York, 3,200 up, 850 down, on the NASDAQ 3,000 up, 1,300 down. And it was good throughout the day, finishing well. And what has happened Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday? Well, I can tell you airlines that were dead meat. No pun intended, have soared for the last few days. Now keep in mind when we say that, Delta stock closed at 38 today. That's what it was in 2014. So, all in the context. And I can go on and on and on and on. Some of the transport names?

Same thing. One of the areas that were not getting going and travel related were hotels. Marriott today up five Hilton up five and guess what they did today one would suggest they're doing that little turning of the corner not a definable big bull market uptrend but out of the Dow trend

the second remember trends are not just a day or two Home Depot just picking a few out looks like that turning a turn up today. Mind you, again, recovering. Not bull markets, but we're trying to explain how things revert, move away. Bad to good, good to bad. We've seen it in chemical stocks, steel stocks. even some of the beat up, and I mean beat up, blasted, destroyed, high beta names that we've highlighted for you for the last 15 months. Some are trying to turn up here.

They're going to have a harder time. You're getting a little bit out of it of the mega caps. Oh, what? Yeah. Amazon breaks above the 50 day today. By the way, in its bare market. So we're just letting you know another day of great advanced declines. And as we said to you for the last couple days, if we continue to get more advanced decline days like this, the indices are going higher.

That's it. That's all you need to know. Why? Because when things break down indices follow the individual stocks, when things turn up, the indices follow. Now, will this last? Who the hell knows? You know, you got tomorrow another most important inflation number of all time.

All I know is in advance of that tomorrow. I don't think you can have any better advanced decline figures than we have seen over the last week. And what's interesting, you really only had one big day and that was Friday. But yesterday was good, today finished well. If there's anything I can say negative this second, you're overbought. We have these little oscillators that are big numbers, but the patterns have changed for the many so well that we could say to you,

notwithstanding a 12% inflation number tomorrow, that pullbacks will be controlled. controlled and rotational, how do we know this? Because things have turned the corner in a pretty damn good way. Now there is something missing and even today. Still no big leadership. New yearly high list? And interesting enough, you got some things that the highs breaking down as of recent, like the managed care of we told you, a bunch of solars, coal stocks,

cap biotech though some of them bounced today which they will and be careful about that because I got asked about that today United Health was up seven today this is the managed care well it was down 70 points in the last five weeks down 70 up seven is not a good number that does not look good on a resume we just want to let you know we're reporting to you another great day advanced the clients today and if it continues eventually We're going to get some big leadership. We don't have it just yet. As I look at the new yearly high list, yeah, it's picked up.

Of course it's going to pick up a little bit. But I must tell you, when I look at that list, less than stellar. Alta Salon's on the list. We'll give it that, we'll give it that due. A cellist tech, a semiconductor most haven't heard of, we'll give it its due. yearly high GE just spun off their health care New yearly high

we'll give it it to do we're on the NASDAQ right now just so you know on the NASDAQ that's about it on the New York there'll be more New Yearly highs than the NASDAQ though but I repeat nothing spectacular

and not a lot actually Schlumberzee in oil stock is new highs Tapestry or retail in New High Jable Circuit a new high Jable Circuit a new high Yum China with the Chinese names, New High, Caterpillar sneaking up to New Highs. World Wrestling Entertainment. Yes, New High.

Guess what? I'm already running out. You know when you know you have a big, beautiful bull market. This expands markedly. And the ones that move out, get going. I suggest to you, we're going to need some more work for that. But these are the best advanced declines in a week that I've seen during the bear market. And arguably, who knows?

Hey, Caterpillar doesn't know where the bear market. And as we've said to you, they'll lift. If the market gets going, they lifted Apple today. Stock's been dead. Microsoft's been destroyed. They lifted that today. So good day. I have nothing bad to say.

Overbought, but no biggie. Up next, what I don't want you to listen to, and much more. I'm Gary. This is the one that only investors. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access. to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Sprecker.

The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcast. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen.

Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.

The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. We're listening to. America is talking. Investors Edge.

He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It's highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. So listen carefully. As we've said to him, we feel like we've got to say this every time we do this.

We don't take on anybody in the industry. The only time we've taken it, we've taken our. on the ARC funds just because we've got to protect you from this menace of Wall Street. And she is a menace. We take no joy in people losing money. But when she comes out and says that Bitcoin's going to be a million in 2030, which means it has to go up 61% a year for the next seven years, she's a menace. It's the only word I can think of.

So I do have to call that out. But, you know, we'll mention the word analyst and things like that. And we'll mention a company, too. So you need to know three months ago you heard these words. 100% of economists around the globe says we're going into a deep recession. Well, I got news for those 100% of economists. If Caterpillars at new highs, we're not going to a deep recession. If the market's rallying, we're not in deep recession.

We'll see what comes to that, but we're just letting you know. But here's what I'm talking about. Back in 2009, you had a certain most famous financial TV guy call a bottom every month or two. And then a month from the bottom, he said, you should be out of the market for five years. This is stupid talk. This is desperation. I've been wrong on everything. Stupid talk.

So I'm just going to mention a company here, nothing personal, but I'm here to help you. stifle financial or steeful financial somebody there came out with a note the s mp 500 will gain almost nothing in the next decade that is the definition of ass clownish the next decade and guess what quite often a sign of a bottoming in markets that's what you get that's how it works You remember in the middle of 21 when we're calling tops on everything. People were cursing me out. When I said the bubbles are popping and watch out on the coins and Coinbase, I got death threats. And boy, people can think of really cool death threats on me and my family.

What was the one? I hope your dogs chew your face off. I remember that one. Because I had an opinion on it. something. We're just letting you know it is that type of talk at the highs that were gone to the moon. And you remember what happened with the bubbles. And it's also that type of talk that defines lows. And we're not saying we've seen the low of the bare market. We're just letting you know you're getting some of that talk. You know, within a day of the low, God bless him. I think he's

the greatest financial genius of the last banking, Jamie Diamond out of nowhere, never really talks market said we're dropping another 20%. There was a day before the low in October. That's the type of talk. And man, oh man, the deep recession talk. Remember in June, July, what we said to you. Peak in inflation. We were the first to call the inflation.

And everybody's still talking inflation. We called it the peak in July. And it was based on commodities, which are important to inflation. Of course, there are other things. But if commodities are coming down, eventually everything else is coming down to a certain extent. And guess what now? Hey, inflation is better. Of course it is.

But the worry is, it's going to stay elevated? We don't know. We're just letting you know, be careful a stupid talk. The S&P's going to do nothing for 10 years. How do they know? Do they have the newspaper from the year 2003 handy? Because that's the only way they would know.

Stupid. The market's going to do whatever the hell it wants to do regardless what anybody thinks or anybody says. I don't care who it is. And I can promise you, if the S&P does nothing in the next 10 years, there still will be stocks that go up three-fold, five-fold, tenfold, and our job's going to be to find them.

So be careful about all that crap. I can't believe somebody says that. I'd like to know who they're at the company let that person say stupidity like that. Because it doesn't matter. Next. The market wrap is brought to you by Investment-Models.com. That's Jim Roebuck, one of the great market timers. No gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market was proprietary indicators.

Go check it out. Investment-dashmodels.com. Finish at the high of the day. 268-Dow, 50 ES&P, 189 NASDAQ, 196. NASDAQ 100, transports 248, Amazon was up five breaks above the 50 day. Apple was up two and change. Microsoft up six and change. Remember, these are in brutal bare markets.

But man, Apple, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, I think Tesla still may be five. Those five are 40% of the NASDAQ 100. So they are important. So they finally had a good day. And they've been dead. and got to be careful. Now somebody was like, Gary,

why didn't you buy Tesla? It was just 102. It's already 123. It's up 20%. Answer is, it was 195 weeks ago, and it's just a bounce. It was 237, late October.

It's just a bounce. It was 3.13 in September. It's just a bounce. And there's no way of reading bounces like that. They're random. There's nothing. technical analysis on it, though I will say Amazon. We were talking about that one last night in our webcast that maybe it can break above 50 day. And it did that today. We'll see if it continues. So next, tomorrow's this big inflation number, anything's possible. As good as things are today, as good as things were yesterday, as good as Friday was, as good as last Wednesday was. As good as so many things are turning up, we're hearing the inflation number now tomorrow is going to be good or much better.

If it isn't, who knows? Who knows? All we can tell you is it's our take that any pullbacks here should be controlled and rotational because of how many things have turned up. if things change will let you know but another really good advance the Klein day and you know what in all the counter trend rallies in the bare market I don't think we've seen this good

so we'll say keep in mind this is just mostly not all actually not even close on some things getting back a bunch of December's nausea just remember that too so we don't want to be

sounding like oh we're going to 6,000 S&P like another Yutz is out there saying we take it day by day get as much evidence as we can from the market close our eyes hold our nose and pray okay we've tried that it doesn't

work but very good day weakness today a few things that were down but really not a big deal nothing of note but again no new yearly highs but if this continues there'll be some my other little complaint today have to give you one other complaint some of the short squeeze stocks were squeezed today we don't want froth and speculation we don't want froth and speculation We want it washed out.

Even bed, bath, and beyond, ready for this? Was up a buck 80 today to 380. They're on the verge of bankruptcy. That was short-squeed. I certainly didn't see any news. I'm looking as I speak. B, B, B, B, Y. Not just volatility.

Oh, yeah, earnings, they missed by 84 cents. A $3.65 loss. Comparable sales declined 31% in stores and 33% in digital. Business sucks. Buy. Up next. Yeah, we'll figure out something. This is the one on the investor's edge.

This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet?

Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, Sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster.

The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card.

Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change.

See Capital One.com for details. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Investers Edge. With Gary Culper. And walk once again to Investor's Edge.

In the news, it turns out there's some more documents that Joe Biden did not, you know, secret documents. You know how they wanted to give Trump the electric chair for his documents. Now it's not so bad. And by the way, they don't even know it and they really don't even care. because they have their own little fiefdom. These media people, the late-night comedy people, they don't even know what kind of stupid morons they are. It's amazing to watch.

So Trump gets caught with these, you know, whatever documents, and rightfully so, he should be ripped. Hell yeah. And he handled the whole scenario badly, as usual, because that's what Trump does. Oh, by the way, he did his racist thing again with Elaine Chow today. It's a moron. Let's make a president again.

But the funny thing to watch is in real time, Biden, the same thing. Oh, but this one's different. And they actually want to have credibility in your eyes by looking you in the camera when we know they're so biased, oh, but this is different. I've never watched the view. But I get sent in video. One of these morons said, well, since Donald Trump's a liar and a fraud,

and Joe Biden's not a liar and a fraud, I believe Joe Biden and Donald Trump should be in jail. And got applause. In other words, catering to your ratings. I wonder if these people even believe the crap they say. I wonder if these people either believe it. And the late night comedy, I was always a Johnny Carson fan, and he stayed out of this.

These late-night people, morons, because they're just one-sided hacks, and they don't realize both sides are crushing us. But cater to an audience, screw the people, and just make one look good, one look bad. I was laughing at this today. you should hear some of the crap out of these people's mouths anyway they found some more of these documents and of course there's video of Biden ripping Trump on this and of course you know what the right is doing playing that video over and over and over and over again like they should

and I'm not even convicting Biden on anything except the same thing that happened with Trump anyway it's just so funny next they've listed the a bunch of the best backers of F-TX, the craft group, you know about Tom Brady and his wife, and some pretty smart, damn, man, some pretty smart capital companies. And I have to repeat what I said to you. All they had to do is be listening to my show and listening to me on TV. I didn't even know who this moron was. You watch a video for five minutes. How can anybody give them a nickel? I wouldn't buy any lemonade if he had a lemonade stand. He looks the part of a creep.

He sounds the part of a creep. Who knows how much has been lost, but a lot. Here's the good news we're hearing. They found some billions of dollars that were hidden away. So some people are going to get their money back. I don't know how many, and hopefully they get it all back. But the list is out there. Next, if you had a chance, Wall Street Journal article,

The Economic and Human Costs of Protecting Criminals, you may want to go read about it. That's the headline. And I bring that up, we're just logical people here, right? How many times you're going to let somebody go into a store and steal and be arrested and let out again with no bail? How many stores have to go out of business? And how many tragedies are going to be because they do nothing about this?

You see what happened? I think it was in Texas. A guy showed up at a restaurant with a fake gun and pointed it at people, took their phones, took their money, threatened their lives. And somebody who carried shot the ass dead. They're calling this guy a vigilante, but I got news for you. he's bringing a gun in there and I'm carrying, I'm protecting my family.

But a lot of this is going on because people have the ability to do it again and again and again. And there was this thing on shoplifting that like 70% of all the shoplifting is done by 40% of these people being arrested and they keep getting out. By the way, what does that do with you and your money?

Everything. I've never seen more illogical local governments in my life and state. And they still do nothing about it, of course, until it hits home. And then maybe they do something about it. Not until one of their family gets mugged or hurt. It's just amazing to watch. The stories, and I read all this stuff.

Police in New York City, they're running away. They're going to Connecticut. I've had enough. I'm going to Connecticut where I can relax a little bit. Just some food for thought if you're any of these cities. It's quite the insanity. And I have to repeat, just illogical. How logical is it to have somebody who committed a crime 25 times out for the 26th?

On that note, hey, good markets. Early tomorrow morning, inflation number. We'll see what happens. Hopefully this continues. You have a great evening drive carefully. When you get home, do like we do. It's quite simple. Make sure you hug your family.

make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. I did not win the mega millions, but it's still going. I'll be on that bad boy Friday. Have a good night, everybody. I'll be on Varney & Company 11 a.m. tomorrow, Fox Business Network. Same time here for the radio.

Bye, by all. Take care. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to garyk.com. That's GaryK.com. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination.

Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.