Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - And Another Strong Up Day!

Episode Date: July 7, 2022

More Info At: http://garykaltbaum.comMore

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eBay, things people love. Investors Edge with Gary Cultbaum, straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Kalbaum, your host day. Thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening. It's July 7th.

4th, 5th, 6th, 2,022. And ladies and gentlemen, as always, we're here to talk about everything that matters to you, your money, the markets, the whole works, and we have lots to cover. In the short time, we are allotted, ladies and gentlemen. But a few things before we get going, if you do not get this radio show in your city, we will post it at garyk.com. We'll also post it on our Twitter feed, which you should be following us on our Twitter feed, where I once had 90,000 followers, and overnight there was 30.

That was weird. You can email me just be nice. And everybody's been really nice. Unbelievable. Kumbaya with everybody. Do you know why I think everybody's been nice with me? Because I'm completely respectful to all of you. Even if you agree, disagree, and all that crap.

Next up. We'll also post it on our, where you can catch it on all these podcast apps also. And just so you know, we have this thing called convictionleaders.com. And what we are going to do is expand it. We're putting together, how do I put, what we do right now, it's commentary, notes, things we're seeing, specifics, and webcasts just about every day that shows you everything. we're going to be expanding it in the next month or two to how I put this media-ish more out there

we're going to do like the webcast you don't see me we're going to do that see this radio show we do we are in the midst of thinking over doing it where you see us and we're doing charts with the show. So we're in the midst and I don't want to make my life too complicated, but the things we're going to do do not add any more time to my day. And it's going to definitively enhance what you do, how you do it, the protecting of your capital when all you know what is breaking loose around you, when markets turn for the good. So we'll be talking to you on that in the next couple of weeks.

Next, James Kahn passed away. I bring that up because I met him once. When I was a teen, I was a very good tennis player. I was number one on my high school tennis team. I was at Turnberry Aventura when I was playing tennis there. And James, I don't know exactly what the date was, but James Kahn was there and everybody was telling me, don't even approach the guy, he's nasty and stuff.

I said, screw that. I walked up to him. He couldn't have been nicer. I played tennis with him for like a half hour. and it was just an overall nicest guy, but great actor. I'm sure you all seen The Godfather, just wow, and 82 years old. Anyway, I wanted to mention that. Next, Raphael Nadel, I saw him at Wimbledon last week.

He had a backout from Wimbledon, a torn abdominal, and that's so depressing. Boris Johnson out as Prime Minister of England that was more than expected. He was fighting it. In case you don't know, during COVID he was locking everybody down but having parties, which pissed a lot of people off. And now what we're hearing is he promoted a guy that he knew was accused of a lot of sexual harassment and drunkenness. And I guess there was some last straws in it. So he's gone there. Just know in the UK it's really party, not person. Even though it is person, they'll find somebody else.

We'll see what happens. And we just want to start with that. But I also want to get into what I brought up yesterday. And that is the crypto and just be careful. By the way, the crypto was up today because a good day in the market. It bounced a little bit. I just want to read something to you. And I have decided, you know how I tell you I love being under the radar?

Well, I'm going to stay under the radar. But when I see things, I don't care who it is, I am going to do everything I can to contact them. And as I told you, I try to get a hold of the quarterback of Jacksonville. What the hell you're doing taking a salary in Bitcoin? I probably would have saved the millions of dollars. Let me read this to you. Dallas Maverick fans are getting burned by the bankruptcy of ill-fated crypto brokerage, Voyager Digital, and they are lashing out at the NBA's owner, Mark Cuban, for lowering them to invest in the company.

Voyager DeClear Chapter 11 Tuesday, citing chaos in the crypto markets. It had paid high interest rates on crypto deposits. What do we tell you about the high interest rates on crypto deposits, by the way? And got crunched as it sought to lend out tokens at even higher rates. Most account holders will be hard-pressed to get back their money, and they're all very pissed off. I could have told Mark Cuban. And just so you know, he's a brilliant man.

Brilliant man. And by the way, a good man, philanthropic, meant well. He didn't want this to happen. There was no ferronose, scam, or con. He believed in it. but I certainly could have helped him out a lot. Of course, he would have had to listen. Mark Cuban, think about that.

Very famous, what is he on that show? By the way, I've never watched Shark Tank. People think I'm nuts that I've never watched it, and I really should. Shark Tank, very famous guy, owns the Dallas Mavericks. Guess what? He got caught up in it. And then there's something called Vault. V-A-U-L-D

Cryptolender gone They pause withdrawals Suspends withdrawals Trading and Deposites Others are now Out there trying to buy them And everybody's talking about

The title A look at what went wrong I'll tell you what went wrong All these companies were started to buy into bubbles and when the bubbles popped it's party so this you know more and more i'm reading more and more of this every day millions of dollars lost i mean maybe hundreds of millions a lot of private equity was involved in this stuff i should have been talking to these people and now other crypto company i mean it's it's not they're depending on now that the price of bitcoin ethereum i

don't know about these other coins to go back up. And remember we said yesterday, we're not saying they're not going to go back up. We're just saying when all is said and done. And already thousands of coins are at zero. We just want you to remember all this that the mucky mucks, billionaires. By the way, this evolved via ULD, I think that's Peter Thiel, another multi-billioner. I think he started PayPal and Square or something like that. Brilliant guy.

They all got caught. up into it. Why? And just remember, the Bitcoin was already up several bazillion fold when they caught onto it. And I'm thinking to myself, wait a minute, these guys are genius investors. Do they not know they're getting involved on something that's already up a bazillion fault? Know what they, you know, what they fell for. The same emotion that average people fell for, and that's greed. How can we make the big bucks off of it? While we here just kept our feet on the ground and recognized things for what they are and what they were and recognize bubbles and what ends of bubbles. And we told you about the book, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds, and all these very smart, brilliant, famous people.

And again, I don't think one of them believed any of this would happen. I think all of them believed. Now, some of these, a lot of these people that started coins are just a bunch of con artists. But I think a lot of these that started these businesses thought, oh, they were doing the right thing here. We're meeting a demand with supply. But they didn't think things through. They forgot about value and valuation and reality. And it really is stunning.

It really is stunning. the who's who of geniuses that are getting whoopped. Up next, markets, lots to cover. This is the one only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management.

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It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this.

And, uh, let me do one more. You can look up what an NFT is, but Jack Dorsey, the guy from Twitter, has a cool beard. Actually kind of looks like Charlie Manson sometimes. Sold an NFT for $2.9 million. To a crypto entrepreneur. Huh, what else is new? It doesn't matter what his name is, for $2.9 million. He put it up for auction.

There's a top bid of $280. What is more to say? What else is to say about this? Bubbles. By the way, an NFT is a non-fungible token. It's a digital asset with an identification code. I guess it can be pictures. I haven't paid that much attention to.

But people are paying all kinds of asinine prices for these things. Why? Bubbles. Remember what we told you about bubbles? bubbles are when everybody loses their mind and will pay any price for anything because of the belief that they will sell it for a higher price. That's it. They don't give a crap about anything else. Seriously.

Nothing else matters. And of course, we've seen the comeuppance of it, the repercussions of it. And before we get into the market, I still worry when today GameStop was up $17 because they announced a four-for-one split that they really pre-announced a couple of months ago. And you know why worry because, wait a minute, hold on, we've just rallied again off the lows a few percent and already people are speculating. Really? I'm also seeing some no sales biotex rallying up. Really? So before I get started on bullish talk, I just want to give you a heads up.

That GameStop was up today, $17. I'm seeing some biotechs getting bid up. More importantly, a lot of people talking about these biotechs with no sales, how you got to own them. and I'm thinking to myself, wait a minute, hold on. Remember one of our rules. You know our rules. We have these big rules that really do work.

They're time-tested. Bare market bottoms do not come with froth and speculation. It's one of the big rules. If they do, if this one does, it'll be the first one ever. We'll see. We'll keep you up to date. Just want to let you know this guy's probably out. 2.9 million bucks and he's a crypto guy and I get you know listen I read a lot about these

crypto guys that uh have made a lots of money I didn't make any money on crypto okay so let me read a few things to you you ready first off to all my peeps in Phoenix Scottsdale soon as the summer's over I'm going to come visit say hello maybe have a little meet and greet with my good buddies the fabulous KFNN. Let me read this. And I'm just reading. Phoenix, Arizona now has more homes for sale in 2022 than it did at the pandemic start. Inventory is soared 125% in two months.

Buyers are gone. Sellers are desperate. This is what led to a housing crash last time. No, no, no. We're not predicting that. I'm just reading things to you. Next. Mark Zuckerberg issues dire economic warning to Facebook and other

met or employees. That's a headline. Next. I'll leave that for a little bit. I'll leave that next one for a little bit. U.S. household savings rates vanishes, credit card debt soars. German 10-year inflation expectations have collapsed as stagflation worries now give away to recession worries. I'm just reading. Consumer sentiment index. in the bare market of 2020 hits 72, 2008-56, 2001-83, 1993, 1964, 1773-58, currently 50. Worst ever. Recent developments, credit card debt hits all-time high of $1.1 trillion.

Inflation hits 40-year high of 8.6, but you know, we think that's coming down. Average monthly rent hits an all-time high of $2,000. Gas prices hit an all-time high of $5. By the way, this was a couple weeks old. We think gas prices probably going to be around $4.5.4.4.5 soon. Water hedge fund doubles bet against European stocks. By the way, Bridgewater's Ray Dalio, one of the smartest geniuses on Earth. Good morning from Germany with banks get hammered due to rampant recession fears and lower yields. German 10-year yields have dropped markedly, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. Just reading the headlines. S&P 500 may have another 24% to fall to 2,900. 150 years of market history shows. I'm just reading, just reading some things.

More than 40 billion of European corporate bonds are now trading at distress levels, highlighting how the worst in the economic outlook has triggered rising angst about companies' ability to pay. I'm just reading some things to you. You know what my point is, right? You know what my point is, right? While I'm reading all those negative things, just watch the market. Just watch price. Markets rallying right now.

wait a minute aren't we in recession how can the market be rallying i don't care what we do is follow roadmaps here on tuesday we said there was a wake-up call on the growth arena but you need to see some good confirmation we may have got that good confirmation today and what we're going to do is go through the markets today. Certainly rallying up a few percent after getting trash is not the end-all be-all. And we'll give you an example of one Dow stock. The biggest mover dollar gainer in the Dow today was Caterpillar up eight to 180 bucks. It was $232 four weeks ago. Remember what we teach you here about being careful about, oh, a stock that just went from 232 down to 172 and rallies 8, that's not bullish.

That's just a bounce. But if we start to see a crap load of names, bottoming, it could be meaningful. If we see a crap load of sectors, bottoming, it could be meaningful. The first day of this year, we said we thought that the oils were emerging and they did until they topped out a couple of weeks back. So up next, what we are seeing as we head into earning season. I'm Gary. This is the one only investors edge.

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Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.apus.edu. With the power and endurance of Toyota Trucks, you can go to the most incredible places,

like this valley, where the echo does different voices. Hello! We know what we're made of, Toyota Trucks. We're listening to. America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here.

He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. So as you know, we have this motto in bear markets. You get no help from Wall Street. And we rarely mention anybody by name.

We have mentioned the ARC funds because we've received a thousand emails on them, which, by the way, the ARC funds look. like they may be bottoming near term here after dropping in the 70s. But we get things from, I just want to read a couple things to you. And I'm not going to mention the company. There's no reason to do that, but this is what we mean by no help from Wall Street. Here's a stock called Upstart, UPST. Morgan's, I didn't want to mention the name, darn it.

December 9th of 21, their price target was 200. May 4th, they dropped it to 88. Six weeks later, they dropped it to 19. You catch in the drift? Here's one other. An analyst who had a $400 price target on Carvana, just lowered it to $34. Oh, by the way, it's 26.

So we just want you to remember these things where Wall Street is flawed. is there's always the bullish bent. There's always the bullish bias. That's all. And you have to remember that in bare markets. And we take no joy in saying you get no help from Wall Street in bare markets, but it's really a fact of life.

And we're not even indicting them. It's just who they are. That's all. Just a couple of $400 price target goes to $34. Okay, market wrap brought to you by Investment-Models.com. That's Jim Rohraback, one of the goals. great market timers. No gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market with his proprietary indicators. Go check it out. Investment-dashmodels.com. So Tuesday, we said to you,

well, really for the first time, just felt like the relative strength was getting into growth names, but we'll, you know, we'll see. Well, today, NASDAQ up 260, NASDAQ 100, 256. simple as that and even the mega caps and don't ask me how it happens but like a Google dropped 260 points in five days and rallied up

270 points in three days you know again it's $2,300 stock so but it's still for a Google to move 10% in four days and 11% and 3 days you get the gist but very good move there and much better

tone. Remember how we've been telling you all these stocks are down 50, 60, 70, 80 percent. And remember how we've been saying to you for weeks now, they've hit an area they don't want to go any lower. And what we need to see of them, start building stair steps upwards for what we call a counter-tren rally in a bare market and how we say to you, hey, a stock that's gone from 100 to 20 can go up to 40 and still be down 60% in the bare market, but that's 100% off the lows, well, they continue to have a better day today. Remember, we've been telling you how weak the semiconductors have been, and there's no way this, we can't rally without semis. Well, finally, they had a good day to up 111 today, even though they're still very, very weak. All we can tell

you is just a very good day, except one thing. Apple, good day. Broke above the 50-day moving average at the close today, but careful there. It did it in May and turn right. back down, did it in April, turn right back down. You know what the worry is. Average volume today, volume was 42% lower than norm. Google was up 84 today. That was only 3% lower than norm, but certainly not a lot of umph. Amazon was 42% lower than average volume. And just to explain volume, too, that's conviction. Adobe was a today 36% lower than average volume. Um, Microsoft actually a little bit above the 50-day moving average, 39% below average volume.

So we're just letting you know pattern-wise, these things look like they're trying to turn up off the lows. Would I love to see in a lot more volume in them. Maybe it comes in tomorrow. Now, this 50-day moving average, as we have taught you, you always want to be above it. The 50-day moving average in a bear market just keeps coming lower and lower. and some of these names are now moving back above it.

It needs the stick. The more and more that do it, the better. NASDAQ is getting close now. 50-day moving average, 11-6-76 closed at 11-6-21. Keep in mind the NASDAQ has been the weakest of them all, so it's easy to get back above it. But just letting you know, today was a good little follow-up from Tuesday. and I don't have the time to go through all the names off the lows.

We'll show them in our webcast tonight. But just a lot of stair steps starting to go north instead of south. And all that did was start from many weeks of not going down anymore. You can draw a line under price and then it moves off that line to the upside. And then makes a right turn instead of revisiting the lows. Makes another move up. There's your stair steps. You can draw it on a sheet of paper. So we're starting to see a bunch of that. We'll just play it day by day. We'll just let you know a good day today.

Broad-based. We've told you that the oils and commodities were ridiculously oversawed. They basically crashed them. They had a strong bounce today. That's normal. The OIH dropped 34% in three and a half weeks. of course they're going eventually bounce. It was up about 5% today. So that helped today. The financials have been absolute comatose dead money. They bounce today. But as I look, J.P. Morgan, volume 27% less than normal. Goldman Sachs, 20% less than normal. City Group 49%. So definitely that component's missing. And remember, as we started on this little Caterpillar up 8 today to 180.

It was 2.32. Just several weeks ago. Keep that in mind. But we're not going to throw cold water on today. We think there was some technical improvement in here. The potential for some staying power. I hear the most important jobs number ever is coming out again today. That's what they say.

Tomorrow, excuse me, every time we'll see what happens. happens. There's still a lot of work to be need to be done, but good to see a decent update. Simple as that. And again, you can draw lines under a lot of things. You can look at Tesla to see it around, I don't know, $6.50 for about six, seven weeks in it around that area. Now it's turning up a little. We'll see. we got double scanning to do tonight, but as I look around my screen, lots of green today, good, your 401Ks today, better, and let's hope we're off to the races. I'm all for it. On all bad news. That's why we started out with all the bad reporting, all the bad news. Everything sucks.

Inflation, recession, depression, Russia, Ukraine, strife. shortages, inflation, deflation, we're going to watch price. We're going to watch pattern. That's what matters most. That's how we're able to get out near the top. While everybody's saying how great everything is, we would tell you everything's topping out. Now we're telling you how everybody's saying how bad things are and we're trying to tell you there's some potential here. not sure yet.

We're off the lows. We'll give it that. Catching the drift. When all is said and done, we have deaf ears to opinion. The only opinion that matters are the markets. And I can promise you, coming out of the 0-8-09 bottom, everybody was bearish. Out of 03, everybody was bearish. Nobody wanted to be in.

That's why I'm still a little worried about this. this one, why is it already a little frothy and speculative out there? We'll see. We're open to all outcomes. Up next. We'll figure it out. Thanks for being here. I'm Gary.

This is the one only investor's edge. Enjoying a healthy dinner that tastes great means eating out at a pricey restaurant, right? Wrong. Healthy Choice Simply steamers are delicious and healthy. The tray-and-tray steam technology delivers crisp veggies and tender protein and tasty selections like Healthy Choice Simply Steamers grilled chicken and broccoli Alfredo. It's a satisfying meal with 28 grams of protein and nothing artificial. Healthy Choice Simply Steamers.

What having it all tastes like. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.apus.edu.edu. With the power and endurance of Toyota trucks, you can go to the most incredible places, like this valley, where the Echo does different. voices.

Hello. Hello. We know what we're made of. Toyota trucks. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go.

Action! In the Gester's Edge. With Gary Culper. Uh, tomorrow, between 12 and two, I'll be on Fox Business with Neil Kavuto's show. I think Neil's out tomorrow. I'm not sure it's hosting. And Saturday, on Fox News.

Cavuto Live 10 a.m. to noon, I'll be on, I think, one time each hour. That's on Fox News. Tomorrow will be Fox Business. And by the way, I always get asked, how do you have time for all this? Just so you know when I do television, here's what I do. I put on a shirt, tie, and jacket, and I walk two feet from my desk. And I'm usually on five minutes at a time. radio I am sitting at my desk in my office doing the show and you know what I do during the show I get a bunch of scanning done while I'm talking to you so I'm at work so I have plenty of time this is easy you know who works I'm looking across the street from my house you should see these guys out there in 95 degree weather putting up a roof. I don't work. I'm in fantasy land.

Those are workers. I'm nothing. You want work? Go say a little to a police officer or a fireman or firewoman or policewoman. They work! I'm in fantasy land. I sit at a desk with four screens.

I do work hard, but they really work. The military, psh, man, oh man. They work. I'm a numskull.

That has a good eye for the market, we think. And a good feel for the business. Anyway, let's repeat. And I want you to listen carefully. At the highs of the cycle, while all the bubbles were popping

and things were starting to top out, all the news was great. We were told, that there's no inflation we told you there was we were told not to worry we told you to worry we were told it's just the correction we told you the bubbles were popping and of course we've gone through this big ugly process that may or may not be over now we're all the way down and the thought process that price moves people and either you lead or you follow

we tend to believe we lead and how do we lead price matters everything else is noise and while everybody now is reporting all kinds of bad news and by the way rightfully so we're seeing a lot of stocks putting in near term bottoms which may or may not turn into something good and we just want you to remember that

it's of the utmost important because markets are a discounting mechanism of the future that's all and maybe it sees something we don't even know yet and as I've always said to you regardless of me whining complaining about every one of these in Washington DC in central banks it's not been great to bet against the American people

in American business for too long of a time in spite of the Joe Biden's and the Jay Powell's and the Bernie Sanders and the Mitch McConnell's and the Nancy Pelosi's and the Donald Trump's. Yeah, Donald Trump and his $7 trillion of debt in his four years. Because just remember, when you go out and you go to a restaurant, there's an owner, there's a manager. there are waiters. There are bus people. There are cooks. Working their tail off to serve you and do better for you.

When you go to the airport, in spite of what you hear, these airlines are really trying to do their best. Those are our businesses. These are our people. And everybody's striving to do better for themselves than the day before. and as long as we have that ability, hopefully we can cut through the Marxists and Socialists in the Republican and the Democrat Party as well as these central bankers that think they're God.

And by the way, who do not shut the hell up on a daily basis, trying to cover their arse for all their mistakes and all their stupidity. So just pay attention to the market. You got that? If the market shows me nothing but good and everybody keeps talking bad, terrific. Do you know why? All those people that remain worried will stay in cash. And 20% higher, they'll start getting in.

Fueling even more. That's how markets work. Now, again, we haven't said the worst is over. I will tell you near term, the worst is over. We think enough names have turned and we think a lot of things played catch up today. That said, earnings season coming up. And I can promise you, there's going to be some blowups. There'll be some good reactions, we'll see.

Just pay attention to the markets. And don't forget, yesterday Apple got the target drop. Apple's up five bucks since that target drop. Again, pay attention. attention to price. That all said, have a great evening. Drive carefully. I'm going to take a nap, then do a big webcast. And when you get home, do like we do. Very simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. Don't forget, I'll be on Fox Business tomorrow between 12 and 2 and we'll be back on radio tomorrow at same time.

Have a great one, everybody. Thanks for joining us. Honored that you would listen. Bye, bye. This has been Investors' Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, Our programs are designed for people who never stop.

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