Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - And narrower! [07.08.2024]

Episode Date: July 8, 2024

https://garykaltbaum.com/

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That's Tommyjohn.com, code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host. A thanks of being with us today.

Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It is July 8, 2024. Hope you had a great weekend. I had a great weekend. Kind disorder. If you can't tell, I'm still a little under the weather. So I'm still in Florida while my grandson is up in New York. So I have not been able to see him physically, but I have been on the FaceTimes all weekend long.

Baby doing good. Mommy doing good. Daddy doing good. Everything's going well. We appreciate the well wishes. I still haven't come up with my name yet. I don't want to be. Grandpa just doesn't,

I don't know. I want something a little bit different. I'll let you know. And if you have any ideas, you know, send them my way. Email me at garyk.com. In fact,

let's have a contest. How about, let's see, how about a $250 gift card? to anybody who comes up with a name, grandpa-ish, but not grandpa. And I must say up front, I have to select it. It would be on me. $250 gift card. And I'm looking for something away from grandpa.

Anyway, that was the weekend because I did nothing the whole weekend. I relaxed me in Winston, went for a bunch of walks in the 100 degree heat here in Florida. Oh, by the way, it's summertime. But I do hear, what was it, in Palm Springs, 120 degrees. And I gather all my peeps in Phoenix, Scottsdale. It's not so, it's an oven there I would gather. Anyway, thanks for being with us. In case you don't know, this is serious talk.

on everything that affects us, everything that affects you, the markets, the economy, jobs, your industry, taxes, deficits, debt, scams, shams, corruption. You name it, we cover it, and as we always tell you, we hate saying this. We have to cover them a hell of a hell of lot more than we used to because the Marxist socialists of Washington, D.C., have not quietly taken over, but in a big way have taken over with rules, regulations, fees, fines, mandates, taxes, control, giveaways, and lying up the wazoo about it all. and we'll continue to cover it as we move forward with no agenda, no bias, no ulterior motives, except we the people. And we mean that. We have to go back towards we the people. We've got to get away from 35 trillion of debt heading to 56 trillion, which means 70.

We've got to get away from people running this country, stomping on our head and telling us what we're doing wrong. We've got to get away from them lying out their teeth 24-7 about what they are doing. And I am determined to cover it. And I take fire from all. Don't care. Let's cover that for five minutes. and then we'll go to the markets because we have a lot to cover on the markets. We have a lot to say that may matter in a very big way going forward.

If you haven't been watching, as we have told you, the more corrupt institution, then DC is the media. They collude. They say the same things. They do the same things. they black out the things they want to black out, they accentuate the things they want to talk about. They will rip you to shreds if they don't like you. They will kiss your arse if they love you.

We have highlighted for three years they never covered immigration as millions of people were led into this country illegally. With many of them, we don't know where they are and they admit they don't know if they're terrorists out there. No coverage. until the polls on immigration for Joe Biden were lower than root canal. So Joe Biden opened his mouth

and all of a sudden they're covering immigration and who are they blaming? The other side. That's what we mean by that. We ain't going to let him get away with it. But here's what's going on now. They've turned on Joe Biden. They've recognized, oh, we can't have Trump win.

And Biden is getting cream now in every poll. So we've got to take him out. Well, they're doing to Joe Biden now, almost what they would do with the Trump for four years. They're actually getting tough on the press secretary. They're actually covering his lies. and they're covering, you know, what's going on with his physical well-being. It's their random act of journalism on one of their own in order now to get one of their own out

so they can bring somebody else in of their own. That's what's going on. I almost feel for Biden because what's happening now is tigers are eating their young. If you saw the press conference today with the press secretary, you would have thought it was Trump's press secretary. Because that's what they did to Trump's press secretary for four years while kissing the rear end of this press secretary for the last three years while she had a lie for Biden for three years. It has been my estimation, I've been telling you this for a long while, that he would not be the candidate. Well, we can tell you under no uncertain terms, there is a move of foot to get him out by the loyalists. Heavy money people are calling for him out.

Big time technology CEOs with the big money donations calling for him out. Gerald Nadler, a senior whatever, whatever in the party calling him to get out. other Congress people calling him to get out. Nancy Pelosi wavering a bit, wanting him out. Waiver from good old Nancy. And what I am hearing, and may I state for the record, when I say to you what I am hearing, it's not typically third hand. We don't just say things to say things here. But you're going to see a louder, and larger move a foot to get him out. I do believe he's going to fight it tooth and nail all the way. And let me state also for the record, they can't take him out if he don't want to go. They would have to move a lot of moving parts to get him out if he doesn't want to. That's the story.

Just letting you know where it stops beats the hell out of us. We have stated for the record under his policies. We cannot have another four years of him. We know it's a binary choice and we know who the other choice is. We have taken that apart and taken that on many times. I guess that's the right Spanish. Many times. But again, it's a binary choice.

We cannot have massive gargantuan open borders. And we cannot have massive debt. deficits and a gargantuan growth of government reach scope debt deficits control giveaways the whole works he marketed himself as a moderate for decades he is a gargantuan leftist of epic proportions i use the term marxist i don't use that as pejorative i actually mean it an economic marxist is exactly what Joe Biden is doing and it'll turn this country upside down if he gets his way

on his new proposals if he wins the election with the House and the Senate. He is calling for massive gargantuan confiscation of wealth out of the economy and into his hands on the money he's already spent

and it's got to be stopped. And it's got to be stopped. Up next, we'll put a bow tie on it. Get right into the markets. You better be listening today. I'm Gary. This is the one-only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge.

We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs,

we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-22-559. That's 888-4-22-5-5-9. That's 888422-5-5-9. Investment Advisory Services offered through call-bomb capital management. Guys, it's no use putting it off.

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benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio.

If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working.

You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. So, the bow tie on all this, is their biggest mantra down. is Donald Trump created massive deficits because of his tax cuts.

Whose money is it? Is it the government's money giving to the workers and earners of this country? Or is it the workers and earners of this country giving it to Washington, D.C.? You now have your answer about everything you need to know, that the deficits and the debt are created because of spending, not because of us keeping more of our money. And the mantra of, they're giving us anything is a lie. They don't give us anything. Every dime is given to them.

D.C. doesn't turn on a light bulb without our tax dollars. and unfortunately what happened is it started out as a slow drip of debt, a slow drip of deficits. And then the next one, a little bit more, and then a little bit more, and then a little bit more. And then all of a sudden, a big one, and then a bigger one, and then a bigger one. by the way, both Democrats and Republicans, and then a bigger one leading to this guy. We move on. What have we been telling you about this market? We have taken pains to tell you and using the word narrow.

So let's go back to our great simplistic example. and I want you to listen very carefully just in case. Imagine if there were 100 stocks in the market and 90 stocks of that 100 were in a definable downtrend. But 10 stocks were going vertical. And those 10 stocks were 50% of the market. market. Well, you have 90 stocks heading down, only 10 going up, but the index is going up, even though it's 10 versus 90. Why? Because how much influence there is of a select few

stocks. Now, in case you don't know, I'm about to give you some rules of the road. Normally, Usually, ultimately, narrow markets usually lead to trouble. Extremely narrow markets usually lead to disaster. Right now, amazingly, and I say this, amazingly, six stocks make up 32% where, rounding of the S&P. Six stocks make up 32% of the S&P 500, while 494 stocks make up 68%. The S&P 500 this year is up 17%.

The equal weighted S&P 500, where each stock is equal, is only up four. Those six stocks are all big tech. The NASDAQ 100, the top eight stocks, are 49%. Eight stocks.

92 stocks are 51%. Which lead me to some statements that you probably should remember. If they continue to take down continue to take down and break down the areas in trouble. It is an eventuality that they will get the rest. And the more vertical the strength goes, the bigger the drop.

If they stop the underperformance in the rest of the market, and at least get it to stop dropping a good start. But they got to get going. We say this because we've spent 1,000 hours on 1999 when some of the same happened. Nevertheless, we will continue to take it one day at a time, step by step inch by inch, and stay on top of things. but Apple, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Broadcom, Facebook, Nvidia, throw it a little Costco and Tesla is better. And we're not saying there aren't other things working.

There are other technology stocks working. We're just letting you know it's getting narrower. and we have one chart that has the advanced declines of the NASDAQ versus the NASDAQ. It's amazing to watch. You would think you were driving north on I-95 while somebody else is driving south. That's what it looks like. Why? Most things are not working and a select few biggies continue to get the juice.

we will keep you a prize and we will keep you up to date. The hope is the broad market picks up. And as they pull back the strength, they pull it back constructively. And money flow elsewhere. Leading to bullish phases. Up next, we'll continue on this roadmap and much more. I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. It's no use putting it off.

The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort.

Tommy John. Comfort perfected. message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker, the platform responsible for a rapidly spreading

condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere where people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it.

with Gary Colbubbom. It's highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. Now, interesting enough, this divergence that is going on is going on while our GDP has just dropped to 1.3%. Our unemployment rate is ticked up to 4.1%. The jobs numbers they keep reporting to us are revised. every freaking month down.

The Institute for Supply Management numbers on manufacturing and services are in recession levels. The purchasing managers index came out at big recession levels, all while money is just flocking into these select few areas right now, namely semiconductors slash artificial intelligence slash software, but software pulled in today, slash will throw in the big banks because they're the greatest bookies of all time. And there are some other things that are acting okay, nothing spectacular investment bankers there are a few acting fines some not gold and silver has been better though they came down a little bit today the cruise lines have acted better recently Royal Caribbean being the strongest by far but then the rails the truckers

the airlines the home builders the housing related stocks like appliances and housewares how about industrial machinery or motorcycle manufacturers, or industrial machinery, or how about oil and gas, pretty much all of it, or drugstores, well, they crashed on their own, or home improvement retail like Home Depot and Lowe's, or solar, or steel, or chemicals, or construction materials, or agriculture, or farm machinery, or advertising. That's the negative side. And of course, I can throw in China

and some of these other countries that are having a little issue right now. So we're just letting you know it is about as narrow as can be. If you watch me do my scans, tonight I will go through every stock that trades from the most down to about 250,000 a day.

And I will be making up a list of stocks in good shape. It is just narrow as all hell. And when I state narrow, a slew of semiconductor names. Some software, though, they pulled back again. There's a smattering of some other stuff. I can pick a couple of insurance stocks acting well. I can pick a couple of retail acting well. But then in retail, I can tell you about Lulu Lemon and tractor supply and Home Depot and Lowe's or Estee Lauder or five below or floor and decor.

You catch my drift. So just letting you know we're watching closely. We're staying on top of things. We're in hopes. We can come on this show and say to you. Broad markets picking up. Better. More and more. Have not been able to. And today the Dow was up 275. It was up 275 today the Dow. In fact, it was up 275 right around 10 a.m. It finished down 30. Catching my drift? The transports opened up nicely. Finish down one. The advanced declines were strong early. Weekend all day.

And as I go to the new high list, the new high list, the performers, the QQ, Taiwan Semiconductor, the S&P, a bunch of ETFs, the S&P and stuff, just letting you know. And I repeat, if anything changes, we'll yell. But if nothing changes, my advice is watch the Midcap 400 if it breaks 2878 and more important, 2818. This is to the downside. The Russell 2000. If it breaks 1993 and more important, we'll call it 1900 to 1930. If those levels get taken out, that's the broader market weakening.

They're so long how long the big indices can continue this off of a select few names doing the trick. If they don't break, if they improve, and by the way, we don't have a bias, we're all for it, you'll hear from us. But another day of quite the narrow. And what juiced the semis today, by the way, the semis are up 109 today, Taiwan semi said something overnight about full capacity. And it got the usual suspects on the move. With the SMH today up another 1.7 with the Dow down. The NASDAQ up 50, NASDAQ, 100.

up 47, not a lot versus what we've seen, but, and the AI. AI, AI, AIO, doing the trick. So let me repeat two things. We're not saying, look out below. We're saying the market is narrow. And if the broad market continues to worsen and the mid and smalls break the lows that we just gave to you, that will signify more trouble,

worsening broad market, and we have to start thinking about what's going to happen to some of these vertical moves. And let me be clear, Apple's been kind of vertical. We bought Apple on the big 11-month breakout. Straight vertical up, rest for two weeks, and here we go again.

And by the way, crappy earnings and sales with some improvement I hear in China. Bond market cooperating, 10-year yield down at 4.269, down from 5% last October. By the way, the bond market yields topped on the 26th of October, the S&P bottom on the 27th. You don't think they matter? There's still all this talk about what the Fed's going to do, and we keep telling you, who cares? They're at 5.5% on their Fed funds, dash 5.5. The 10-year, which matters 10 times more, is it 4.5.

They're behind. If they lower rates a quarter or a half, it can affect your job, it can affect my job, it can affect the economy. Could juice the market, maybe, I don't know. Let's just pay attention to free markets. Up next. More on the markets. This is the one only investor's edge.

It's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick-drop fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. at to tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with code comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com

code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Sprecker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives,

and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. is, Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousins swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it.

What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Inversters Edge with Gary Culper. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. So we hope we explain that to you well. We never market the things we do here. Do you ever hear of me talking about what we do?

We don't. Ever. Once or twice a year, maybe. We're just letting you know if you want to see all these things. we're talking about. If you go to garyk.com, you click on conviction leaders, go check it out. It is one month complimentary because we're very benevolent here, and you can shut it down after a month, but you can see we send this stuff out nightly. You know how we talk a roadmap? We show the roadmap. We don't just talk it. So if you want, go check it out and all that.

In the news, we just want to warn you of a couple of things. So as you know, let's talk Trump four years. Number one, lowered taxes, less regulations. We had a very good economy under Trump, a very good. Joe Biden is lying when he says Trump's jobs was Herbert Hoover like. He's including COVID. Joe Biden is the biggest lying president we've ever had. by using COVID to lie about records.

Just letting you know, we had a very good economy under Trump. What we didn't like about Trump is deficit spending. We can't stand that. We are not into tariffs. We don't like that. We don't like that Trump paid off the farmers when the farmers got hurt because of the tariffs. But all in all, lower taxes, less regulations is what's necessary.

It lets the economy flourish. It lets business flourish. And if Trump does win the presidency again, if he does the same, but doesn't, he just keeps government spending flat. I'll praise the hell out of him. I bring that up as a warning. shot because the miserable biased creeps at the New York Times running an article, the enormous risks a second Trump term poses to our economy. Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.

I just want you to remember something about these media people. They will literally sit at a desk and say, we need to write an article about Trump killing the economy. if he becomes the next president, and now let's fit in why. Ignoring under Trump, we had a very good economy. So we just want you to remember this. We're unbiased. We just told you a second ago what we liked and what we disliked.

We don't pull punches. We just want to warn you about the BS that gets spewed, and the New York Times is the head BSer. with some others of course in the news speaking of government we're not making this up insurers pocketed

$50 billion from Medicare for diseases no doctor treated go read this one go read this one remember we have no problem with government we think we need a good government good government 50 billion

What's 50 billion? Remember, they have so much debt and deficits in spending They're making 50 billion into a freaking footnote Just letting you know Oh by the way, there's a trillion dollars missing at the Pentagon On defense Just letting you know In the news

This has nothing to do with your money I just had to mention this You know what the BET Awards are? They did a tribute to those that died in the last year. They had O.J. Simpson up there. I just had to mention that because that comes under the world is insane. The Goldman and the families of who passed away are up in arms yelling and screaming, but nothing will get done. Just let you know.

That's a little bit of in the news. The big story is what's going on for the presidency. and maybe Joe Biden hangs on, but I have to tell you again, everything I am hearing is that this week, there is going to be an avalanche of Dems kicking Biden in the grapefruits. Why? Their own elections.

Remember, there's something called the down ballot. You know when you get a ballot? It starts with the president, and all of a sudden you see the House and the Senate, they're all worried about their own livelihood in D.C. There's another thing called coat tails. Coat tails. Politicians want to ride the coattails of a winner in the presidency.

And right now the poll numbers are crushing Biden. I will guarantee you if the poll numbers turn north for Biden, these same people will change their stripes immediately. But all the poll numbers, by the way, I don't believe in the polls myself, except when you see some extreme chasms in the numbers. And they're getting extreme.

We'll keep you up to date on that because I got news for you again. We cannot have the trajectory we are getting on the size, scope, reach, debt and deficits of government. Because the next stop, per Biden, long-term capital gains from 20% up to 44.6%. An unrealized capital gain, a wealth tax, the Trump tax cuts get sunsetted, even though that's going to happen anyhow. but a new press could reenact. We'll see how it goes. Hey, you all have a great evening.

Drive carefully. And when you get home, well, I've got nobody here except me and my dog right now. But when you get home, do like we do, make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. And make sure you hug your grandchildren, which I will be able to do in the next few days. Thanks for joining. Peace out. Serenity now.

Have a great evening. Bye-bye. This has been Investors' Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryKK.com. That's GaryK.com. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day.

Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick-drop fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected.

This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase. bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet?

Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details.