Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - ANOTHER BIG BOUNCE DAY

Episode Date: October 3, 2022

Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com

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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colbom, your host. A thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening.

It'd be October 3, 2022. And stop sending me emails on my Mets. We know. the brave swept my Mets unless there's a miracle they'll go wild card and anything can happen at least my giants are three and one

and that's our sports segment of this show very depressed all right so ladies and gentlemen we never know what we want to really talk about on the show. We do the market wrap. And then throughout the day, just things come up.

And I just always feel I want to tell you and talk to you about just things that interest me. Things that I think matter. Some things are tongue and cheek. Some things are very serious. But a few things came up today. I just thought they were of note. And it's all about you, the markets. your money, the economy, your jobs, everything else in between, because this is Investors' Edge serious talk on all of that. We try to do a little comedy injected, but not so sure when it comes to you and your money, there's a lot of comedy to inject right now,

though there's always hope. So I want to start out with a couple of things. Kim Kardashian. You know, there's a law in my house. Never, ever, ever, ever, ever put that show on. I once walked into my house and somebody was watching the show with them. I got nothing against them personally, except it's all fake. It's all a put on.

It's not reality. And God bless these women. some of them have become billionaires and we never throw cold water on anybody. Great entrepreneurs. My goodness, this Kylie, Jenner, go through any airport and she has these big pink things that she sells this stuff. She's a billionaire. Kim Kardashian, a billionaire. I hear she started this thing called skims like just a few years back.

It's like women's undergarments. Supposedly it's valued at like a billion six. Another one started a tequila business that's supposedly humming. I think every celebrity starting a tequila business. We never throw shade at their successes. And I do know Kim Kardashian did some things about getting people out of jail that may have been putting there wrongly. I think wrongly is a word. Or been there for too long.

That's a noble effort. Kim Kardashian was just fined. One point, let's see. $1.2 million to settle charges with the SEC for failing to disclose a payment she received for touting a crypto asset on Instagram. The post started, Are You Into Crypto? This is not financial advice, but sharing what my friends just told me about the Ethereum. Tax token. Investors sued her.

Former NBA star Paul Pierce, superstar boxer Floyd Mayweather, over their promos for the Ethereum Max, accused of them of artificially inflating the value of the asset. It has now been found out that Ms. Kardashian failed to report that she was paid a quarter million bucks by Ethereum Max through an intermediary to publish that post. and excuse my friend, I gather people lost their asses in it.

Why am I bringing this up? Because things like that are a headwin for everything that I try to do here with you. By the way, her failure to disclose was a violation of federal security laws. She agreed to pay $260,000, which includes the payment she received plus interest in addition to the $1 million penalty. So we're going to take the high road in the good side and say, she meant well. I don't think any of these people do that in thinking you're going to lose money. But besides their great marketing of their wares, they don't know what the hell they're doing in markets. And anybody who decide to listen to that, we have no joy in anybody losing any money but dudes and do debts.

Don't make it more difficult. We bring this up first because, man, oh, man, oh man, oh man, since February 21st, the amount of money that have been lost on bullcrap is in the multi-trillions. It's quite underreported. It's in the multi-trillions between the coins and the NFTs. all hunks of junk. I'd say it to all their faces. I've never been on TV debating anybody on the coins. They wouldn't last a minute with me.

The NFTs, the marijuana stocks, the SPACs, the electric vehicle companies that would never, ever even produce an electric vehicle, the battery companies that would never produce a battery, the meme stocks. Who's that guy? And again, nothing personal would just state in fact. Portnoy. And God bless him, he just sold his business to somebody for a few hundred million.

I love that. But he went out touting all these meme stocks and said he's never selling. And he said stocks never go down. Oh, he sold. Did he have your interest or did he have his? So again, these have got to be gargan. And again, nothing personal, but we just state in fact, how hard of you worked to save the money you saved,

not make the money you made, but save the money you saved after all your expenses and taxes and all that crap. Don't make it easier for them to tout you. How about the guy who's no longer with micro strategy? And now they brought somebody else in who's still buying crypto. Unbelievable. Where the hell's the board? So I wanted to start with that. And again,

nothing personal. We just deal, in fact. Next. Let's see. Maybe my music's going to play soon. And I want to do this in a couple of minutes. Okay. So let's do so.

something else. Last week late, we got this purchasing managers index out of Chicago. It was not only recessionary, but deep recession. You got construction numbers that were not very good today. Manufacturing numbers are not good. GDP, that was predicted to be 3% for the quarter that just ended. Now is down to like zero. And if it's under zero, that would be three quarters of GDP down, even though the White House is lying to everybody about, oh, their economy's just fine. worry, everything's A-OK. Why would that be good news for the markets? Well, unfortunately, counterintuitive, it would be.

As we have told you, the market has lived off of the whims of a select few people at central banks, both here and around the globe, and their gargantuan amounts of easy money and money printing and zero percent rates and negative rates. And one would assume one would believe that eventually, if it gets worse and worse, they will put inflation to the side and guess what they're going to do. Today, yields came down. They were down much more, but they still were down today, 1.53, 0153, from 3.804 to 3.651. What do you think the market did today?

What have we been telling you? Yields down good, yields up bad. The market was up today. Bad news. Isn't bad news bad for the market? No, not with the interest. interference of these people. Let's keep that in mind as we go through the rest of the show up next. Before we do the market wrap, one more message from your handsome and buff toast. I'm Gary. This is the one

only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review. The number to call is

888-4-2-5-559. That's 888-4-2-5-5-9. That's 888-4-2-4-2-5-9. Investment Advisory Services offered through Call Bomb Capital Management. At CVS, it matters that we're not just in your community, but that we're part of it. It matters that we're here for you when you need us, day or night, and we want everyone to feel welcomed and rewarded. It matters. that CVS is here to fill your prescriptions and here to fill your craving for a tasty and yeah, healthy snack. At CBS, we're proud to serve your community because we believe where you get your medicine matters. So visit us at CVS.com or just come by our store. We can't wait to meet you. Store hours vary by location. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an

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Comfort perfected. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey. This promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum.

It doesn't get better than this. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. By the way, did I forget if you don't get this show in your city? We'll post it at GaryK.com. We'll also post it on our Twitter feed. If you don't follow us on Twitter, follow us on Twitter. We're very cool and sarcastic. And cover a bunch of stuff.

Crazy stuff. Professional wrestling, which is not crazy anymore. People used to make fun of me. because all I talked about was professional wrestling now. It's mainstream, of course. Or at garyk.com, you can just press the Twitter button. You can email me and you just have to be nice. Nice.

Everybody, be nice. I got people trying not to be nice, and I win them over with charm. Just be nice. It's pretty simple. It shouldn't be hard. Nice. It's a good thing.

We could completely disagree on it. everything. Just be nice. I respect everybody's opinion, even the Marxists. I will vehemently disagree with them, but I will respect their right to be Marxists. And I will try and convert them. I've converted some Marxists. Anyway, let's move on. So I'm watching a little TV this morning and, you know, we don't take any joy in people being wrong. We've been wrong before. We're just wrong fast and wrong small. Other people though refuse to art, you know, they just refuse, refuse to stay with the markets and they actually argue the markets. The markets are wrong. It's overdone. So we don't name names here. The only person we've named is the ARC funds because we're asked

a thousand times about them, even after being down 70%. And we don't really take her on who's managing and she just gave up the management of a couple of those funds. But we try to explain what we think has gone wrong with those funds. So they had a strategist on TV today, and the reason why I can't, I would not be able to interview these people, because I would lose my mind. I'm going to quote this strategist, and again, he's been bullish all the way down. And if I had a show, I don't think I'm bringing that person on, because I don't want people, there are bull and bear markets, ladies and gentlemen.

I do not want perma bulls. I don't want perma bears. I want people that are flexible with markets and are willing to move with the market. So they have this guy on. He used the term garden variety correction we're in. Garden variety correction. Let's see if we're in a garden variety correction.

This is an exercise. It's to help you. It's to make sure any time time you hear from anybody, including me, your job is to do your homework. It's your money, right? So let's see if it's a garden variety correction. Are you ready? The fang stocks, there's some fang. Netflix is down 66% from the highs, garden variety, right? Right? Facebook, which used to be the F, down 61% from the highs. Garden variety.

Salesforce.com in the Dow, 53%. Nvidia, very important semiconductor, 64%. AMD, 60%. Adobe, very important software name, 59%. Qualcomm, 40%. That's actually a good one. Tesla is actually a good one. Tesla is actually now down 41%.

Had a rough day today, even in a strong market on some news. We'll get into it. Apple, that's even down 22%. And that's a tiptoe through the tulips. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, 4,068 down to 2394. 40%, not taking out my abacus, my rusty abacus. That would be only 40%. Roku, that was very popular at the highs.

83% garden variety. PayPal, 68% garden variety. Square, 79% garden variety. By the way, these are names you've kind of heard of. How about that Carvana? 93% from the highs. Garden variety. How about IAC interactive?

66%. They own all these internet-type companies that sell a bunch of. of stuff. How about overstock? That was hot for a while. 77% from the highs. How about Snap? Snapchat, you've heard of that, right? 87.4% from the highs. Garden variety. You know, Verizon is a low beta name

in the Dow, down 29%. Garden variety. Home Depot is up 7 and 3. seven today, but still down 32% from the highs. How about Microsoft down 31% garden variety, J.P. Morgan, 38%, city group, 42%, micron, 47% and semiconductor lamb. ASML holdings, 51%. What else do I got for you? Let's do some, oh yeah, Airbnb.

51% Carnival cruise lines 74%. How about American Air? 47% garden variety. AstraZeneca drugstock, 23%. That's actually good. Philip Morris, they kill people. 27%. Well, that's Altria Group. The Philip Morris is down 25%.

The good ones are down 25%. Garden variety. Shake Shack, 55%. Good restaurant. Never ate there. I heard the hamburgers are pretty decent. I don't know, maybe, maybe, you know, I hear they are. What is that? SeaWorld. 41% Disney. 46% garden variety. How about charter communications? This is the media company. 57%. While on that, how about on that, how about Comcast? Oh, that's 47%. percent also. Or maybe we want to do some of those peloton's, 92 and a half percent, garden variety, a teledoc, 83 and a half percent, or doc you sign, 81.6 percent, or maybe the bookies, draft kings, you know the ones that tell you how much money you win and they pay you out, know they're lying,

it's the losers that pay you out. Draft Kings down 70 percent. Penn National Gaming, another one, 65 percent. Or how about Lyft? 77.6%. Or Uber, better than Lyft, only 45%. Or how about the vaccines that had their day in the sun? Modern is 69%. Garden variety, NovaVax, 92% down. Garden variety.

Or Federal Express, 44%. Garden variety. Up next. We'll tie a bow on that one. variety. This is the one only investors' edge. At CVS, it matters that we're not just in your community, but that we're part of it. It matters that we're here for you when you need us, day or night, and we want everyone to feel welcomed and rewarded. It matters that CVS is here to fill your prescriptions and here to fill your craving for a tasty and, yeah, healthy snack. At CBS,

we're proud to serve your community, because we believe where you get your medicine matters. So visit us at CVS.com or just come by our store. We can't wait to meet you. Store hours vary by location. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward.

Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU. APUS.edu. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day.

Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with code comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected.

We're listening to. America is talking. Investors edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended.

You're going to feel better if you talk to him. So, garden variety. Let me finish up with these. you ready the fx i which is china's is gone 52% that's an etf

how about uh let's finish off at retail how is that abracombian fish 68% how about american eagle outfitters 65% garden variety or best buy 55% just bought a laptop from them uh how about

uh Burlington, 62%. Garden variety. Raw stores. There's a good one, 30%. Under Armour, 74%. I just bought some underarmour stuff. Target, only 44%.

Garden variety. Macy's, 57%. Garden variety. I'm lucky. I was not at the table on TV. I would have probably gotten fired for my comeback on somebody saying it's a garden variety correction we're in. I would have gone back to high school Gary. And I would have simply asked what kind of spleaf are you smoking?

And I'd have probably been fired. Nah, I would have been fired. I'm too nice of a guy. Oh, I didn't do financials, did I? Because some of this Europe stuff, credit Swiss, 64% you're reading about them that they have all kinds of troubles and stuff, where Deutsche Bank, 55%, garden variety. We'll finish there.

What is the moral of the story? Don't even believe a word I say. I'm just a handsome and buff guy on radio and TV. trying to put best foot forward. Let me state for the record, this is not a correction. This is a bare market for the average stock, some worse than others, some very worse than others,

and in no way, shape, or form is this garden variety. And it is your job to care a ton about your money and be looking that over. Especially now. In bull markets, you know, this is a bear market. And let me segue one of the great characteristics of bear markets are the biggest days the markets ever had most of them happen during bear markets. Because they come from very oversold conditions. And once they start rallying, the short sellers start covering and you get these big one-day moves. And you need to be careful about that.

During this bare market, we had quite the many. We had a 1,300 point swing one day, a couple thousand point swings, and a bunch of 500 to 800 swings, only at the close on Friday to be at bare market lows. That's how we segue into the market wrap. Brought to you by Investment-Dashmodels.com. That's Jim Roarback, one of the great market timers. No gray ears with the man you're either in or out of the market with his proprietary indicators.

Say that 10 times fast. Investment dash models.com. Dow was up 765 today. Johnson and Johnson was down. Everything was up. S&P up 92, NASDAQ 239, NASDAQ 100, 258. The transports up 406. Advanced declines were very good.

or hardly any new yearly highs. New yearly lows contracted big time. Why? Because you had a good day. But, you know me, everything has to come from the perspective of where markets have come from. With the Dow up 765 today, before today, the Dow was down 3,779 points in 14 trading days. That's 11.6%. It's down 5,556 points since the high of August 16th, 16.2% drop.

By the way, that was not bull market highs. That was lower highs. The S&P was up 92. Before today, it was down almost 13% in 14 days. And 17% since August 16th. The NASDAQ, which was up 239 today, was down almost 14% in those 14 days, and down almost 20% since August 16th and a much lower high. The transports, which were up 406 today, were down 15.7% in 14 days and 21.2% since August 16. That's why we were up today.

my job is not to throw cold water in it, we're always hopeful. We're always looking for the bare market low. But one of our worries is we've had another one of those big up days. And as I stated to you, fact, fact, the biggest, most of the biggest up days this market has ever had has been in bare markets. That's number one. But number two, the Dow was 12-270. 15 days ago, it closed at 10-815 today. The Dow was it 32504 15 days ago?

It closed at 29490. Catching my drift? And then as I look at individual names, we always do this exercise, and we start with the Dow. We'll go with bigger movers. Home Depot today was up almost eight. It's still down 50 points from five weeks ago after being up eight today.

Honeywell was up six today. This is Dow to 173. It was 204 five weeks ago. You catch in the drift? A visa was up four today in the Dow. 181. It was 207 15 days ago. Caterpillar up seven today to 171.

It was 200, four weeks ago. Black Rock was up 22 bucks today to 572. It was 763 five weeks ago. Still down 190 points. Goldman Sachs was up six today to 299. It was 344 15 days ago. What you have today is a very oversold counter-trend move of unknown price in time, and I would not go any further than that.

My only wish today was that Dow would only be up 2 to 300. I don't want anybody yelling and screaming, look at that Dow today! And most, you know, it wasn't up today, restaurants weren't up today. Don't know why. Oil prices were up markedly today. Oil's bounced very nicely today. They had been trashed. yields were down nicely today that'll help to what extent we don't know I have already scanned

1500 stocks it's just what I'm telling you down 50 up six and by the way that down 50 is still part of the major downtrent when I say down 50 and up six I'm just given an example a stock can be down 150 from the highs so all in context, not to throw cold water because you guys that are fully invested in your 401ks and your dollar cost averaging and you're like, holy crap, what's going on here, every up days a good day and we're all for it. We hope it continues. My scan, extra scan tonight will be on the oil, strong day, though there's no leadership but some territory covered today. But otherwise, a lot of blips.

Up next. Whatever else. Thanks for being here. I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. At CVS, it matters that we're not just in your community, but that we're part of it. It matters that we're here for you when you need us, day or night. And we want everyone to feel welcomed and rewarded.

It matters that CBS is here to fill your prescriptions and here to fill your craving for a tasty and, yeah, healthy snack. At CBS, we're proud to serve your community because we believe where you get your medicine matters. So visit us at CVS.com or just come by our store. We can't wait to meet you. Store hours vary by location. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward.

Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh or pursuing a lifelong passion. Our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.APUS.edu. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day.

Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with code comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected.

You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! And welcome once again to Investor's Edge. Thanks for being with us today. The United Nations, that anti-Semitic, anti-Israel, anti-Jew, suckfest of a place,

just so you know, they do these condinations in the last couple of years, like 125 on Israel, one on North Korea. That's who these people are. Anyway, they're calling on central banks to halt raising rates. The UN has injected themselves into central. central bank policy. Now, that's some funny crap. That's like me getting on this radio show and saying, well, this is how you do brain surgery. You take the scalpel. Anyway, I saw that and that was pretty funny. The mega caps, Apple was up four and a half today. A reminder that Apple just dropped from

164 to 138 in 15 days, back up to 142. That's what we mean. Tesla was the outlier today. Down another $23 heavy volume today. They said that deliveries less than expected, which I don't think's happened in a very long while, if at all. They're always beaten the deliveries. And this is for the last quarter. Market did not like that.

And I was actually watching today to see if it got defended, never got defended. the whole time. And they're blaming on supply chain, and maybe that's correct. I don't know. We'll see. You know what I have been reading on? I'm doing more reading on? There's no way, shape, or form.

You know, California's doing this thing. Oh, we're getting all electric vehicles. There's no way they can do it. They don't have the grid. People are not going to stand. I was reading how long it takes the charge of vehicle. A lot of people ain't going to go for that crap. and I also hear the batteries create a lot of pollution.

Interesting, huh? I don't see anybody addressing that. So what's the agenda if you get a lot of pollution from electric vehicles? What's the deal with that? That was interesting to me when I was reading all that. Anyway, some other things I just want to cover. You're reading about Credit Suisse and maybe it's another Lehman moment. There's all this worry.

The stock has gone from, let's see, because it's only a correction. This stock was $20 in 18. It's now $4. In March of 21, it was 15. It's now four. And there's worry about debt and all that. Well, that's the outcome. We told you that every asset price, every data point,

every economic statistic was living off a 0% interest rates. And companies that aren't doing well can get away with it because cost the capital is nothing. But the old line from Warren Buffett, when the tide goes out, you know, the naked man is standing. I think there's a lot of nakedness out there. And we'll see. And we're not 100% sure of this, but leave no doubt, watch stock price. When Lehman and Bear and all them went out, the stock price. The stock price telegraphed it.

That's what I'm going to be watching for. Are there any, they call them black swans because of everything we've been seeing? I don't know. One would suggest yes. Another big thing going around is, oh, don't worry. There's no way housing can be like 2008 because there's much less leverage and a lot of people bought for cash. I've got news for these people that are saying that. they may want to read up on the laws of supply, demand, and price.

I get where they're trying to come from, and I'm not saying they're wrong. I'm just saying I would not be too sure of it. Why? Because every asset price, every economic statistic, and every data point lift off of 0% rates. And what is it, the mortgage rates 2.6 up to 7? That's a lot. By the way, the mortgage rates will come down very soon because we just went from four to 3.65 on the 10-year, which is direct impact on mortgage rates. So there will be some relief.

And just so you know, every time rates come down, guess what stocks do better? The housing stocks. Very interest rate sensitive right now. Very, very, very, as well as the consumer area. So lots of moving parts And I didn't want to get too much The weeds The great news is for those of you that are very much invested

Dow up 765 S&P 92 NASDAQ 239, NASDAQ 258 The SOX 86 I hope it's the bare market low Transport's up 406 Hope it's the bare market low I'd be happy as all heck I get a lot of calls from people I don't know

telling me Especially the ones that are retired Very very worried If you're in your 30s and you're making some cake and stuff, not as tough. But people with a certain amount of money and a certain amount of income, rough going. Dependent on markets. Why? Addicted to 0% interest rates and the printing of trillions.

And every data point, every asset price and every economic statistic living off that. And that's what investors were living on. off of. Most people not knowing that. Most people with the markets going up, everything's great. Look at this. While we're telling people, this thing's living off of rigged and manipulated whims of a few select people at central banks around the globe. And eventually there is going to be a bad outcome and we've got a lot of bad outcome. And what is the next line? Unfortunately, the people that caused the problem are still running the joint. Maybe one day they'll listen to the show.

All right. I think we covered what we wanted to cover. That said, you all have a great evening. Drive carefully. If you can help out with people in need from the storm, the hurricanes, or anything, please think about it. Until tomorrow, I'll be on 5 p.m. Fox Business tomorrow night.

You have a great evening drive carefully. When you get home, do like we do. It's quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. promise until the same time tomorrow.

Peace out and always humbled that you would ever listen to us. Bye, bye, bye, bye, bye. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. Success starts with your drive. An American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward.

Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.APUS.edu. Today, we're exploring deep in the North American wilderness among nature's wildest, plants, animals, and cows? Uh, you're actually on an Organic Valley dairy farm, where nutritious, delicious organic food gets at start. But there's so much nature. Exactly.

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