Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Another Bounce Day
Episode Date: August 28, 2023garyK.com or https://garykaltbaum.com/...
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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum.
Straight talk about you and your money.
Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum.
And welcome once again to Investors Edge.
I'm Gary Coltham, your host.
A thanks for being with us today.
Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen.
Happy that you are listening.
It's Monday.
It's August 28th.
It's 2020.
Hope you had a good weekend.
As I stand here, we pre-tape this show in the 4 o'clock hour.
And the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, where I have friends, they are sheltering in place for another shooter.
In Jacksonville, a shooter.
Targeting blacks, three dead at a dollar store.
The culprit, I believe, killed himself.
We're told he was on depression.
medication, got off of it, oh, let's just pick up a rifle and kill people. I wish we can start
this show with something better. But man, oh man, man, man. Be well, stay safe. Hopefully,
I don't know if it's an epidemic of shootings. We know what's going on in some cities in a very big way.
and then you have these others,
I don't even know where to go with it.
I know there's other people that yap away at it every day,
trying to earn points.
We don't try to earn any points here, ladies and gentlemen.
We just want you safe,
and hopefully we don't have to ever talk about this at all.
Speaking of, let's get it all out of the way,
for those in Florida, don't mess around with it.
looks like it's coming up the West Coast.
The good news is, well, it should be only a category one by the time it hits.
The bad news is a category one is an MF.
Don't play around with it, especially in low-lying areas and water-filled areas.
Once it hits land, it'll weaken, but just do not mess around.
I have been in plenty of hurricanes, small, medium,
large, prepare if you're in those areas. Just prepare for the worst, hopefully the best. That's the
best way I can put it. Mither does not care about you. I have pictures of my house from years ago
where everything was down. I was an Andrew. It hit me, but we went down to visit Andrew and help
out a day afterwards. It was like an Adam bomb went off.
The good news is, again, this one should, I think it's showing it'll be a one when it hits.
I'm not 100% sure.
And hopefully it speeds up.
The faster it goes, the better.
So now that I've started you off with the most morbid stuff, again, hope you had a good weekend.
This is what we call serious talk on everything that affects you.
If we sound a little bit different, I'll be on my iPhone app.
for the next few days Adam will be doing the show on Wednesday Adam Sarhan the great Adam Sarhan
next Monday is Labor Day will be off and we'll be covering the markets we'll be covering
everything emanating out of Washington DC because that's never ending and anything that
matters to you the markets your jobs employment any area of the world that's
matters. We are dead serious about every dime whether you are or not. Hope we are helping you.
Segway time. It's August 28th. We're now end of month. I don't want to get too into the
weeds, but the best way I can explain the market to you right now is mushy. And what
does mushy mean? No real ascending gains, just a lot of back and forth. A few names that are leading,
but most back and forth and back and forth. And I will tell you going back to Thursday,
NVIDIA. I received 150 emails about NVIDIA this weekend. Yeah, that's about right. I received some
calls on NVIDIA. How is it possible? The stock,
would reverse and keep going lower before today, by the way, it reversed to the upside
today, keeping it in what we call a decent range, not ready to bust out but not breaking down.
Why didn't it get going?
And is there any worries?
Is there any trouble?
And again, we're bringing this up because it is the most asked about.
And I do believe it has usurp Apple as the most important technology stock in the market
right now.
And by the way, NVIDIA, which earlier today, let me give you the number, hit a low again of 448.
It was down 12 earlier, finished up 8 today, which is good news, stayed above the 50-day moving average good news.
It would really need to get through 481, which would be the old high back a few weeks ago.
And of course it opened at 503 on Thursday.
So why would that be?
So I just want to give you a little bit of story on semiconductors.
And no, it's not boring because it could mean losses or gains for you.
There's a shot.
And I'm reading this from some pretty smart people in the semiconductor industry
that they believe the little bit of weakness and defense on Envidia stock on such
gargantuan numbers and guidance going up, there's a worry of what is called over-ordering or double-ordering.
What does that mean?
Well, I personally read a story about a company that actually said, oh, we're buying the heck out of chips from Nvidia, certain chip in advance based on what we think the potential is.
Well, if everybody orders not only what they think, but hey, let's make sure we have enough chips going forward.
That way, we're going to, well, what happens if a company orders, I'm going to give a number?
It's just a made-up number, a thousand chips.
But right now they only need 500.
and they're in preparation of, hey, I think we're going to need the thousand but.
Well, there's supposedly a little bit of that going on where companies are just
screw it.
I'm just going to order it and worry about it later.
That may be a component of it.
I'm not sure.
I care and don't care because all I really care about with NVIDI and the stock, it's holding
support. It's not
breaking out of range and let's see
what happens. Today was a good day.
Thursday
it opened at 503
finished poorly.
Friday kept going down.
Today hit, was down 12,
finished up to 8.
That's the opposite of last Thursday.
Keeps it in range.
Keeps it above the 50 day moving average
and as long as it stays above
50 day moving average for me, it's
in my eyesight and we'll see
what comes of it. If it breaks above the old high of 481, I'm not sure if I'm going to buy
because you still have that big reversal at 503, but that certainly would go a long way of help.
What also, Invidian did today as far as help, they opened the NASDAQ hot again today,
and they were selling it off again today.
Once Nvidia got going, it stanched the bleeding to where the NASDAQ finished up again today.
Now, this is an oversold bounce into the end of the month.
Like we told you, that could happen.
Volume was again light today.
But we'll give everything it's due.
If price for the indices can get back above the 50 day and stick,
then that would be some good news.
Not definitively, but remember what we tell you.
There's a certain physicality in the market that nobody wants to listen to on.
which is just fine because most of Wall Street doesn't want to work at it.
Price cannot ascend unless price is above the 50-day moving average.
Simple as that.
Price cannot ascend.
It's a physical impossibility.
You can't have a bull market if price stays below the 50-day moving average,
and that's where the indices are at this juncture.
The good news is they're getting back to back.
being close. You know what the bad news is. A lot of areas are still in bad shape. And I will tell you
that today they bounced some of the bad areas. They bounced the financials. It's been terrible.
They bounce the transports. It's been terrible. The good news, they bounce that the bad news is it's
way off the highs today. You don't want to see that. And they just kind of bounce things around
a little bit here. I'll be doing my scans in a few minutes. We'll see how it goes.
Up next, more in these markets.
Lots more.
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It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working.
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Investors Edge.
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It doesn't get better than this.
And welcome once again to Investors Edge.
So a decent amount of what we do here is just based on logic.
I gave myself the moniker Mr. Logic because we're just logical here.
And we're logical on everything.
So many people have a gender.
alteria motives, favorites, we're just logical.
We lost all favoritism, and you don't we mean by that?
We're just logical.
And part of that logic comes from what we see, and just taking one plus one equals two.
Not five.
Not injecting our opinions into things.
about how things are going to be three years from now,
and certainly not listening to the tout artists.
And boy, there's a lot of tout artists.
And you know where there was a lot of touting?
In the marijuana stocks.
We warned you in 2018 about the marijuana stocks.
That's when we really started.
It was based on logic.
While everybody was going nuts and you got to own the marijuana stocks and they move these stocks to the heavens, we simply told you several things.
Number one, you're paying $10 for a $1 bill.
What do we mean by that?
At the time, the valuations were a joke.
But everybody was excited for the legalization of marijuana.
all these states. Number two, legalization of marijuana. Hmm. Huh. Who's legalizing it? Oh, the government.
Why is the government legalizing marijuana when they're trying to get rid of nicotine? Huh. What do they do
with cigarettes and nicotine? Oh, they're taxing the living crap out of it. Have you seen how much some
cigarettes are in certain states. Hmm. So the first thing we said was what kind of morons are a
government that says cigarettes are bad for you. Stay away. But let's legalize marijuana because
it's good for you. So the insanity ruled that was number one. But why would these morons in government
of all states legalize something that makes you stoned.
And I don't care what they tell you, it changes behavior.
I don't care what they tell you.
It can tire out.
You know, they don't want you drinking and driving.
Yeah, try getting stoned and driving also.
So why would they do that?
Well, you know our government.
Why do they have lotteries?
and why do they scam you on the lotteries with advertising of you never know,
even though to win the mega millions in Powerball,
you can get hit by lightning today at the same time
as tomorrow at the same time,
in the same place and have better odds of that happening than winning the lottery.
It's simple.
The dollar sign.
So the government came in,
wait a minute,
your buddy across the dollar.
the street is selling you the dime bag and he's making all the money he's not charging your taxes
we got to get in on this so what did the government do they got in on it and it went from state to
state in certain states did this that the other thing or whatever but unfortunately the government
and the investors forgot a couple of things that we didn't logic if it's cheaper to get from your
buddy and you don't have to pay taxes on it and his stuff is better
And he's across the street.
That's number one.
But that's important.
And how do we know it's important now?
Hey, a couple of these states got rid of the taxes on marijuana.
Duh.
But then I can fast forward and tell you everything else because here you go.
Article, headline, recreational weed industry verges on collapse due to steep taxes, plunging prices, glut of competition.
What did we tell you?
If everybody's going to sell.
Across the U.S., the legal weed industry is under pressure from a gonga glut.
No kidding.
Prices have plunged even as dispensaries complaint of high taxes and red tape.
No kidding.
Industry Group warns pot businesses on the verge of collapse without reforms.
Oh, you need reforms now?
Who's going to reform them?
The same government?
So let me read a little bit.
Across the U.S., the legalized marijuana industry is buckling under the show.
strain of plunging prices, patchwork state regulation and burdensome taxes analysts and industry
groups say, all these issues are chipping away at the health in the industry, the point where I
would describe the industry as a crisis of the United States, says, Bo Whitney, senior economist for
the National Cannabis Industry Association. By the way, there's a National Cannabis Industry Association.
He went out to say this is unsustainable from an economic perspective. Currently, the recreation
who said cannabis is legal in 23 states and last year state regulation.
in medical and recreational pot sales top
26 billion nationwide.
But even while sales
sword dispensaries say
seeking out of profit is growing harder.
Duh!
As a glut of wheat production
pushes prices lower,
a boon for blist out
pot consumers but a bane for growers
and retailers.
But that's okay.
By the way,
dispensary
chain medmen, it's called.
once dubbed the apple store of weed, teeters on the break of financial ruin while in New Jersey a trade group warns the industry is stagnating in a doom loop.
But that's not what I want to talk about.
We just gave you a backdrop. Let me give you the more importance.
Aurora cannabis in 2017 was 140.
It's 44 cents today.
That's what I really want to talk about.
because we're here talking about
in markets, your money, investing.
That's all.
That's what we want to talk about.
Be smart.
Tillray,
300 down to $2.35.
By the way,
Tilray just bought some beer
from I think Budweiser.
Do I need to go through any others?
I don't need to go through any others.
That should tell you everything you need to know.
One plus one ended up
being two.
All you had to do was think about.
Now, I didn't know Aurora Cannabis would go from a high of 140 down to 44 cents.
I didn't know that.
But I do know when a business doesn't have a shot because of circumstances that are sticking
you right in the face.
Just want you to remember this.
Because this article came out in the last week.
And while I'm reading it, I just said, duh.
City with highest number of weed dispensaries, Denver, 319.
State with the highest annual sales, $423 million in California.
Nice.
Up next, today's markets.
Other news.
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We're listening to.
America is talking.
Investors Edge.
He's got to be pleased with that.
The crowd is just on his feet here.
He's a Cinderella boy.
With Gary Colbomb.
highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to. Okay. So in real time, there's
something else going on. Remember, we told you about this VinFast. It's a Vietnamese electric vehicle
company that sold a thousand vehicles and had to recall all of them, leaving them with no sales.
It's a $10 spec. They merged. It was up another $13 today to $82. It's gone up eightfold
in seven days.
Now, mind you, it's had some wild swings, but it's gone up eightfold, and based on what I'm
told now, it is the third largest market cap of any auto company in the world, and they have
no sales.
So what do you think the final outcome of this one's going to be?
By the way, who knows?
Maybe it goes to 800.
We've seen that.
What's our motto?
when all is said and done and the music stops, they all go back to where they should go to.
Just remember throughout the whole meme stocks and all those moves, what did we tell you?
Just remember, eventually, ultimately, they all, not 99 out of 100, but of 100 out of 100,
will go back to where they should be.
they always will go back to valuation to the value of them.
And you've seen them time and time and time again.
We warned you in the midst of the frenzies,
I'm bringing this up because I'm actually scratching my head
that we're still getting wicked froth in speculation
in a company that has no sales.
and we're not saying they're not going to have sales down the road.
We're just telling you they have none right now and they're the third largest in market cap.
And also we're being told most of the stock is in one person's hands.
We're not telling you what to do.
We're not telling you to buy, sell shorter cover.
We're just letting you know, be smart.
And again, we're still amazed.
which harkens me back to Rivian.
Rivian came public in 21.
I believe it was a $78 IPO,
and I told you it was ridiculously priced.
You're getting screwed.
And what happened was they were able to price there.
And you can't blame the investment banks.
You know what their job to do is?
Get it priced at the highest possible price.
And they did.
And not only they price it at 78,
within two days, within a few days, it went to 180.
And what did we tell you?
I went on Charles Payne's show, and I said,
it now has the market cap of almost Ford and GM,
even though Ford and GM had $260 billion in sales.
at the time
Rivian
had delivered like 40 cars to
employees and that's it
and that's it
and we simply told you
it's probably worth 10 bucks
that's what we said
it went as low as $11
and 68 cents
from the 180
now the good news is
they're selling a lot of cars
just so you know
they went from selling zero
cars in 21.
Last quarter they did $1.1 billion in revenues.
They got a great deal with Amazon who bought a bunch.
But on that $1.1 billion in revenues, and we're not making this off, they lost a billion
dollars.
On that $1.1 billion in revenues.
But the fact that the matter is, it's gone from $180 to $20, and it's got a $20 billion
market cap right now.
I don't know what they're going to do from here.
Maybe they're going to grow like crazy.
It just, again, back to what we say to you.
Ultimately, valuations are going to matter,
and you have to recognize when you're in some froth,
some bubblishous activity.
And again, we're surprised something like this DFS can do what it's doing
and was up again today.
And we're surprised we can even bring it up that it's happening.
Remember, we're reporting to you.
what is happening and we'll keep a watch on it.
Do you remember last summer?
HKD?
Went from 7 to 20 some odd 100 in two weeks.
Hong Kong based.
No sales.
And don't ask me how that occurs, but it does.
It's six bucks.
And by the way, you could hardly trade it.
I remember looking at it.
It was moving higher when it was like 1,500 or 1,800.
The spread was 1800 by 1950.
You go buy some with a $150 spread.
So it's pretty crazy.
But we're just making the point again when I see something like VFS,
which gets to my last point on this,
I'm not so sure it's good news we're seeing froth.
Froth is usually indicative of trouble lying ahead, eventually.
We'll see.
Which takes me the next thing I want to just mention.
And as you know, we really don't quote too many people here.
We don't talk about what other people say unless it's what we consider to be important people.
But sometimes an important person will say something and we try to just decipher, but also strip away some of the noise.
You know Kevin O'Leary's Shark Tank guy?
I think he's brilliant.
one of the smartest people out there, proven to be a very smart businessman.
Anyway, he's warning that soaring interest rates, and I'm going to quote them,
is going to bring mayhem to the economy before Christmas.
Now, guess what?
We're about to enter September.
Now, if we have mayhem in the economy by Christmas,
I'm pretty sure that's bad for the markets.
Anyway, I'm just letting you know he may be right, he may be wrong.
If you're reading that, we don't think that way.
It's very tough to tell things like that.
Oh, in December and put a time on it.
What we do know is that savings rates are plunged, credit card usage is skyrocketing, mortgage rates are skyrocketing.
We have another huge distortion brought to you by Jay Powell in that nobody's trading a house.
to go into another house right now because they got 3% mortgages and who wants seven to half.
By the way, that's a distortion created by one man.
The other distortions he created, Silicon Valley.
Bank America, their loss.
Oh, our Fed has a $1 trillion loss on their own bond portfolio.
Do you know why?
They buy Long.
Guess what?
Long's lost a lot of money.
Anyway, so that's what he's saying.
He's saying the interest rates, the problem, cost the debt.
I'm not so sure.
And I think the market will know.
And you know, how we'll know, the market cracked from here.
And I'm careful about using the word mayhem.
I wouldn't use that.
We'll say.
The central bank has not ruled out more Fed hikes.
But for me again, remember what we've told you?
Watch the 10-year yield.
That's more important to me.
They have no control of the bond market now because they're not printing money anymore.
We think.
We'll see.
Anyway, I just want to mention that.
He says it's worse before it gets better.
And he thinks that all this money went into the big machas and not the small business.
You know, the money that's from the government into this, that, and the other thing.
The Chips and Science Act.
I mean, you gave a ton of money to all these semiconductor companies.
Even though they make billions, I don't understand that one.
When you got all these homeless, oh, let's just give Intel a crap load of money, even though they make.
You get my point.
So we'll see if he's right.
We're going to watch it.
I know you've heard about this Michael Bury guy who's also from the big short movie.
He's taken out some options betting on a big drop in the market.
We'll watch the market.
All we can tell you is it's been under pressure.
Bounced Friday, another decent bounce today.
though, end of month,
though Thursday was an ugly reversal to the downside after a drop
and not a lot of leadership.
We'll see.
Up next.
Today's final numbers.
Thanks for being here.
I'm Gary.
This is the one only investor's edge.
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Dow up 213 was up 305 early, and then it was only up about, I think, one of
and then bounced, 34-4-40, yeah, about 105, good bounce.
Then it got up to up 260, finished up 213, which is pretty darn good, but leaves it below the 50-day moving average.
But getting near the high of Thursday's gross reversal.
So in the Dow today, let's see what we've got.
Just really nothing down.
And like Boeing up three, Salesforce.com up two, Goldman Sachs bounces up almost six, Home Depot three.
3M, get this.
They settle a big lawsuit and it goes up five and that's been a dead stock.
It's the best way I can put it.
S&P up 27, NASDAQ up 114.
Let's bring up the NASDAQ for a second.
was up 114 today.
Early, it hits, was up 145 and then worry.
At one time today, it got to only up 40,
which would be another ugly reversal,
so pretty decent finish,
but not at the highs of the nasty reversal from Thursday
and still below the 50-day moving average.
NASDAF 100, the same.
The transports, and this one has me watching.
Finished up 102 today, and that's fine and dandy.
But the transports today, you ready?
It was up 270 early and finished only up 102.
We'll see.
Positive.
and video, as I said early, was down 12, finished up 8.
That was after dropping from 503 down to 448 from the high on Thursday.
That leaves it in range.
The old high from July was 480.88.
One would suggest it needs to get back above it.
But today was a good day for it.
What is less than thrilling again today, and we don't care whether it's summer or not,
volume was even lower today than Friday's low volume on the NASDA.
And on the S&P, even lower today than Friday.
And both of those numbers were lower than the volume on the down moves.
We would love to see that change.
bouncing today financials bounced but damn they need to bounce and i still have to say city group can't budge off the lows
j p morgan was only up 51 cents today that's the grand pooh-bah of the financials but that's even trading below the 50 day
so that bounced the semiconductors bounce today the socks today could have been worse could have been better was up 42
And actually not bad.
Did hit 51.
And then was getting in trouble again today until NVIDIA did the nice little save today.
But guess where the socks is trading?
Way below.
Very way below the big reversal of Thursday.
And that just coincided with the very important resistance area of the 50-day moving average.
New yearly highs, not much.
more new yearly lows than new yearly highs.
The good news is advanced declines were better today,
and the good news is yields actually came down today for a change.
When I look at new yearly highs, less than thrilled again.
Not much meat on the bone.
And when I say that, on the NASDAQ, it's showing like 50,
but there's really like five.
I don't include a $1.67 biotech with no sales.
The best way to explain it.
And I'm seeing a bunch of three and four dollar names.
So not many as far as New Yearly High is on the NASDAQ and on the New York.
Same thing.
TJX is a New Yearly High.
We'll give it that.
Uranium stock, Kameco, New Yearly High, we'll give it that.
Marshall McClennon Insurance will give it that.
Mastercard, a little bit into new yearly highs. That's interesting. Not finding much more.
Cold, consolidated energy, new yearly high. And I'm almost done, by the way. That's how rough it is.
What I'm watching is what we want to see is an expansion new yearly highs. We want to see yields stay down.
We want to see more leadership. And we want to see the in the season price get back above the 50 days.
I can tell you, Apple, AMD, Salesforce.com, Microsoft, Tesla, Facebook, Netflix, Oracle, and Broadcom are all below.
Amazon, a little bit above, Adobe, Google, and Vida are above.
A lot of biggies below.
So we'll call it a very touch and go market here.
And again, we don't give a crap that we're.
heading into September because if the market decides the ramp in September, that'll shut up all the
September blues people. Remember, we have no bias. We deal with what we see. All the information
in hand. We don't care what day it is, what month it is. Remember again, what happened to sell
in May and go away. What happened to all that? It was buy them in May and go away. It was selling all
August, then go away. If September continues to get whacked, we'll know it. And right now there is
that opportunity. Why? Big drop on volume, light volume rally. Again, that's going to have to
change. And that all said, you have a great evening drive carefully. When you get home, do like
we do. It's simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will
feel better, you will feel better. I promise. Have a great one, everybody. Same time tomorrow.
Peace out. Take care. Bye-bye.
This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get
in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com.
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