Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Another Crappy Finish To The Week!

Episode Date: April 29, 2022

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Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for detail. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colth, I'm your host.

Hey, thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It's Friday, April 29th, 2022. This is serious talk on you and everything that affects you and the markets. and the economy and jobs and D.C. and everything under the sun with a little comedy injected, but we have no comedy to bring to you right now as our biggest worries have been coming to fruition. We have been warning you since February of last year, the process of a market topping out. how it tops out, how bubbles top, how bubbles drop, how the process of elimination as one by one, sector by sector, inch by inch, piece by piece, markets get in trouble.

We have done exercises with you on this show, simplistic exercises to simplify things, where we tell you, imagine if there's only 100 stocks in the market. and a hundred of them are in defined uptrend. Well, you've got a defined uptrend. If 20 turned the downtrend and 80 stay in the uptrend, well, you got a little bit of headwind. No big deal. Stay with the 80. If it goes to 50-50, well, then you have a stalemate.

But what if the 50 that are doing well have a much bigger influence than the 50 that aren't doing well? Well, you're still in good stead. What if it goes to 25, 75? But the 25 are so much bigger than the 75 that the indices look great while the 75 names get crushed. Well, that has been the process. That has been the process we've been walking you through. That has been the process we've been whining about.

And this is the process we hope you have been listening to because we listen back to every show. We have been specific. We have been to the point. And now we're at a moment. We're at a moment. Yesterday we did the show right before the market closed. We were telling you, we had a very strong day yesterday, and hopefully we get one of those A lows in a bare market. What is an A low?

A counter-tread rally, which we gauge, see how it goes. We've called a few A lows in recent months where we had a rally for a couple of weeks. We had a rally for a few weeks. One of the A lows lasted two days. We never know. But something happened after the close yesterday. As we told you, Amazon cracked. Now, does one stock need a lot?

Well, it's 7% of the NASDAQ 100 and 3.5% of the S&P. Now, if you think about it, in the S&P 500, each stock should be worth only two-tenths of one percent, but that's three and a half percent. And then there's Apple. Apple's 7 percent of the S&P. Apple did not crack after the close, though it has been laboring down at the all-important 200-day long-term moving average. So not one of these biggies that have been a huge help to the market has stood. Apple's been better. But I digress. Amazon.

Let me just state for the record. Finish down today, $411. Now, it sounds like a lot. Well, it is a lot. But it's about 17%. I've seen stock drops 50% overnight. But why does this matter? Because they got Netflix.

They got Microsoft. They got Google. They got Facebook. What do I mean by they got? Well, they basically put them into their own private bear markets. Well, at the close today, obviously Amazon and Apple at the close today got distributed, finished below the 200th day on their numbers, and then the market got smoked. And what do we mean by smoked? Gave back everything and more from yesterday.

So the attempted A low didn't even last to the next day. And as we have stated to you, while Apple and some of these big names have held up so much better, making the indices much better than they are. At yesterday's close on the NASDAQ, I want you to hear this. These are updated. 45% of the NASDAQ is down 50% or more. That's individual stocks. You ready for this number? 22% of the NASDAQ stocks, down 75% or more.

And here's another one. 5% of the NASDAQ, down 90% or more. while the NASDAF just went into bare market territory of 20% or more. Thus, the masking of the weakness by the big names. What did we tell you eons ago? What happens at the top of the market? Well, exactly what has happened. We didn't predict it.

We've told you the characteristics of it. and then told you as it was happening, all the money was coming out of the most risky areas. Big institutions were derisking, and they parked the money in the biggest liquid names. They parked the money in the recession-resistant areas, the utilities, the Procter & Gambles, and the Johnson and the Johnsons, and the Coca-Cola's and the like, and the apples. until under such weight of destruction of the average stock, they finally come in and get the indices. That's what you've seen in the past few months. And now they worsen into a bad finish today.

Why don't care? We've discussed why every day. Economic and financial malpractice. from the White House down to the central banks. Massive debt, massive deficits, massive conjuring up of unimaginable amounts of money to protect their interests, make billionaires, double billionaires,

and screw every saver with zero percent interest rates. But we have found out the other part I was right about. They don't have a clue. All the central bank has been good at is one thing. creating another credit card with a higher credit limit to pay for the last one. And now the bills are come and doing. You know what's unfortunate? It's on us.

All the Fedheads sold all their stock near the highs. When they found out they were insider trading. How convenient. Not one going to jail. Doing things that we would go to jail for. So I have no good news to report to you today. but what we will do is we're going to let you know exactly where everything stands and what the thought process is going into next week as we have now passed all the biggies in tech that have reported there's more earnings next week but a lot of the influencers have gone by the wayside again we wish we had better news all we can tell you is we hope you've been you've been listening We've been steadfast insane.

We're growth stock managers. We love technology. We own none. That should tell you everything. Now the bear market's gaining even more teeth. Odds favor, we're heading from more legs to the downside. They couldn't even oversold rally this for more than a day. We know bearishness is picked up.

We know a lot of people are bare. supposedly that's supposed to help. But we tell you it's not a pinpoint indicator, price first, everything else is second. And that's the story. Not many stones being left unturned. We warned you about the SPACs, the speculation, the froth, the Game Stops, the Robin Hoods, the Rivians, the coins, the marijuana stocks, the 3D stocks, the Chinese ADRs, which were actually up today. There is a god. The growth stocks with ridiculous valuations, the IPOs with ridiculous valuations. We're income puppets. Up next, full market wrap. Much more. I'm Gary. This is the one only Investors Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalpom hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge.

We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complimentary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-22.

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See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confuse. used relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's

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The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And we'll once again to Investors Edge. today's really crappy market wrap is brought to you by Investment-Models.com. That's Jim Moore back, one of the great market timers. No gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market with his proprietary indicators. Go check it out.

Investment-dash models.com. Dowdown 939. S&P 155, NASDAQ 536, NASDAQ 100601, the SOX 136, transports 459. I can promise you advanced declines were not good. Up, down, volume was not good. New highs, new lows, new lows was not good. In the down today, and just going to go through from top to bottom of losers, United Health down 16. And we start with that because the managed care stocks have been a big port in the storm.

United Health still is above the 50-day moving average with a butt. Microsoft, down 12. about. Microsoft had a little rally off of their earnings report, cannot get above the declining 50-day moving average. Microsoft is another port in the storm, by the way. It's only down 20, and a half percent from the highs. Trust me when I say, that's a port in the storm. Goldman Sachs was down 13 today. Not such a port in the storm. We've been telling you that the financials are in a bare market. Salesforce.com, down almost 10.

Huge bare market. Visa 7.5. Been acting better. Boeing, 6. Terrible. Amgen. 5. Bad reaction to earnings.

American Express. A port in the storm versus most everything. Still down. 7. Apple, down 6 in change. below the 200 day. Disney, down 3.5. Brutal bare market

for Disney stock. I will tell you, Disney topped out at 203 last March at 111. Disney. Home Depot, 11. McDonald's, 5. And then you got a bunch of twos and threes.

The only thing up today was Honeywell, up three and change on earnings. I believe it was up 10 at one time. Merck was up 11 cents. Amazon 414. Google 83. Apples, we said 6. It's a much cheaper stock. Adobe 14, Microsoft 11, and Video 11.

Netflix 9 has been obliterated. Qualcomm 9, given back almost everything of yesterday's game. on the reaction to their numbers. Mastercard, 15, Visa, 8. I don't need to go further. It's just a sucky day. Oils are all down, commodities all down. I have stated to you on the commodity front,

quite the few have broken down. So we'd be much more careful with the commodity space. Oils have not broken down, but they are, we use the term with you. Wobbly. I think Wobbly is a word. I have nothing redeeming to tell you about this market

at the close. Nothing redeeming. The NASDAQ finished at New Yearly Lows. It is below March. The NASDAQ 100 did the same. The S&P 500

is in right now and nearing the lows of that big, gigantic reversal day of February 24th, when you literally had a 5% reversal. The Dow, which will always hold up better than everything else in bear markets, also teasing that February 24th low. If the average NASDAQ stock is down 35, and the NASDAQ is only down what about 24 right now?

I'm just outlining for you, not a guess. Let me state it would not be a reach for the NASDAQ to catch up with the average stock, especially when it looks like there shall be more to go in the big names, which again, masked carnage last year. Remember every day?

I would mention another 10 stocks breaking down while the NASDAQ was at new highs because Apple kept going into new highs. Remember in October with a NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 on a Friday hit new yearly highs and I said to you, but we have 500

new yearly lows. Something is up. It's the worst divergent we ever seen. And the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 topped the next day. All we can state and say, we hope you've been listening. We hope you joined our convictionleaders.com because all we've been doing is showing webcasts every night and showing people bare markets and to avoid. We've been also showing since the beginning of the year the bullish phase in commodities and oils and a smattering. of other places, that's probably over. To what extent we don't know. I'm already getting emails.

Oh, look how we finished. Do you think Monday? Nah, you can't predict something like that Monday. But we do know is we have a moron on Wednesday raising interest rates into an economic contraction when he had months and months where he could have done it when we had 5% GDP. But no, the inept, the incompetent, the impotent boobs that have never lived in the real world and have no understanding of the economy of markets, except, wait a minute, hold on, how can that be? He's the head of the central bank. He went to a great college. It doesn't mean a squat. What have we told you?

All they have been good for is creating another credit card with a higher card. with a higher credit limit to bubble up asset prices and we have told you a thousand times on this show out of bubbles and booms from central bank intervention the most we have ever seen times a bazillion will be a bust we got the busts in many areas

the question is are they getting the main areas up next we'll figure it out. This is the one only investors edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit

for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card, What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio.

If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect.

Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. Investors Edge.

He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Coltbaum. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. And what once again to Investors Edge. Thanks of being with us today.

Again, wish we had better news. So I want to walk you through now. And we've done this a few times, but we think it's imperative that we keep doing it because we've got to drill through your head. And we don't pull punches. We really have a great understanding how markets work, especially the bare markets. You know, in bull markets, you don't separate yourself,

but in bull markets, in bare markets, you separate yourself. While everybody's fully invested and stays fully invested, flail away, don't know what the hell they're doing. You know what we're doing. So, bear markets are different than bull markets. In bull markets, corrections pull you back into support and off to the races again. In bull markets, in corrections, sentiment turns too bearish, and that turns markets and you're off to the races again. In bare markets, corrections or stair steps to the downside and rallies just work off the oversold conditions before you're sent lower.

sentiment will change the complexion and get rallies going, but all it does again, get your bounces, get your rallies into resistance, and then roll you over again. In bare markets, rallies are sharp, quick, make you feel good, suck you in, and bury you soon after. In bare markets, they do eventually get them all, usually no stone unturned. In bare markets, listen to this, ladies and gentlemen. This is true. The average leader of the past bull market will drop up to 70%. Oh, we've already got a ton of that.

In bull markets, at the height of them, you get the most froth, the most speculation, the most people buying at any price thinking it's just going to go higher. They lose their wits. we got all of that bubble after bubble after bubble after bubble we've done webcasts on it we may have to do another one again at the end of bull markets you get what we call the nifty 50 type action go look up the nifty 50 from the 70s

what that means is money de-risks from the average stock get me the hell out and it finds its way into the most defensive areas or sometimes just the narrow list of what considered to be a safe haven because it feeds on itself. Apple being the recent one. The problem with those great names at the end of bull markets, they end up over-owned, over-loved, over-leveraged, over-valued. And when things turn, when you're so over-owned, the only way to get,

less over owned is selling. When you're over-leverage, the only thing you can do is under-leverage, which means you're selling, but you're only just getting rid of the borrowed money. The over-loved becomes less over-loved. By what? Selling. And as that all feeds on itself, you go from over to neutral to eventually under and that's a long way down and how it simply works is that the big money the institutions the hedge funds mutual funds they have meetings every morning with executives with portfolio managers and they're looking over what they own and they're looking over what's going on in the markets and they're talking to their analysts what the hell's going on why are you telling us to buy this and it keeps crashing and all we do is we read the

them well and we call them the smart money because they are very good at ferreting out the shape of things to come. Months ago we were telling you they are indicating contraction, recession, inflation. Months and months, guess what we got? All of it. Months ago we told you they were parking money into Apple. and some of these others. They did. We tell you, once they're done with everything else, and so many things are so far down,

they eventually get them all. They're getting them now. We told you, as we go into a downturn and economic cycle, if not worse, money finds its way in the most defensive recession-resistant areas in the market. Food, drug, beverage, tobacco, household products. Ooh, let me segue. Did you see where they're trying to outlaw menthol cigarettes?

Do you see that today? It's in the news. While New York City smells like a bong because marijuana is legalized. Welcome to your moronic, imbeciled government. Cigarettes are bad, but go smoke a crap load of weed. All about the taxes, kids. Amazing, huh? I had to just had to bring that up.

Food, drug, beverage, tobacco, house, or products, utilities. What do they all have in common? Well, during recessions, stocks hold the press because you got to get your food, drugs, got to have your Coca-Cola, got to have your Pepto-Bismol, got to clean the counters, got to give the baby the diapers, so that's where the money flows. And also since January, less so now, we got the inflation trade. So commodities and oils. But we're not so sure that's going to last.

Because we've got to figure somewhere along the line, demand's going to drop, and maybe oil prices will drop and commodity prices drop just because of that, but remain inflated, which is not good news. So one by one, by one, by one, by one, everything we told you has come to fruition. And now major indices are on another ledge. Though the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 have now gone a little bit below the edge, why? They're getting the big guys.

they've already, as I said, dropped a ton of names on their head. Now they're getting the big guys. They're going to be less over-leveraged, less over-owned, less over-loved. And do the fact they've been the most over-owned, over-leveraged, and over-loved situations we ever see in our lifetime. That's why you're seeing Amazon down over $400. bucks today. And therein lies the process. While we were noting some famous TV people are out there and every three days by and then you have a down day sell, they don't know what the hell is going on. Why? They've never taken the time to do what we've done. Thousands of hours studying the

characteristic of their markets so we can be able to get the hell out of the way. We're in those moments. And the only question is how far it goes and how long it lasts. We don't have that answer, but we do have a worry. Booms, busts. Booms, busts. Booms, bust. And now the wealth effect may come into play.

I take that back. will come into play. We also believe a big part of the economy for the last few years has been the wealth effect off of these maniacs. That's going to change. Again, to what extent? We don't know. We wish we had better news. We do not. And unfortunately, the man in the White House has no clue of economics. The man running the central bank, no clue of the of economics. The woman, Treasury Secretary, no clue of economics. They're just a bunch of easy money, debt and deficit-laid adults that have foisted all of this on our backs. With the past politicians, too. Up next, we'll wind up the icky week. This is the one only investors

at. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply.

Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition, known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere

people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited at double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.

The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go.

Action! Investors Hedge. With Gary Culpe. Well, what else is going on in the news? Well, we predicted something else. The ass clowns are attacking Elon Musk like he's the Antichrist and Hitler. The things they're saying about this man because he's trying to buy Twitter, over the top. And when I use the term ass clowns, I'm actually being nice.

The things that come out of their mouths, Oh, the end of democracy. Yeah, really? Because a man's buying a social media company. Don't you love these people? Remember what we've told you here? They don't care about you. They have agendas and ulterior motives.

Why? They get paid a lot of money to have agendas and ulterior motives. Sometimes I sit around thinking they can't even believe the things they say, can they? Are they that insane? Could be. But they have a platform, and we've got to deal with it. So they are driving to the hoop on Elon Musk like you wouldn't believe. They tried doing it to Joe Rogan, who, by the way, I've never listened to his show.

I used to watch him on Fear Factor all the time. They went after him with a fervor. All of a sudden, he's the hand-tied price too. Whoever disagrees, which takes me the next part. Did you read this? this wonderful dystopian administration has a disinformation

board now in other words if they don't agree with you they're going to attack you disinformation what's that you mean when Joe Biden the president comes out and says a $5.8 trillion

spending bill would lower the deficits I wonder if the disinformation board is going to question him on that. Or Chuck Schumer this week came out and said, we need to raise taxes and that will lower inflation. I wonder if they'd have the board meet with Chuck Schumer. Or maybe the Homeland Secretary Mayorkas who said in front of a congressional panel that the border is under control. Interesting. I'm wondering if they're going to, if this board is going to bring these people in and ask them about their disinformation, blatant disinformation. Blatant.

Oh, we doubt it. Because all they're trying to do is censor people who disagree with them. In opposition of everything the First Amendment is about, the freedom of speech. the ability to disagree with other people without having to be kicked in the groin. Not with these people. And they appointed a woman to run this. I can't even get to tell you the things she has said. Purely biased like you never believe.

So beware. Don't disagree ever. with this administration at all. You see what an election brings? And don't think I have forgotten the Republicans. As you know, I am no fan of them. They're all nauseating. They're all depressing.

And they're all tiring. By the way, in case you were going to check, the woman who's heading up is Nina Jankewitz. In a tweet in 16, she said, maybe Hillary Clinton's most important point so far, Donald Trump presidency would embolden ISIS. Oh, no bias in this woman. So this is what we're dealing with as we go into the election. And for whatever reason, the media, the insane media will be absolutely no help to just sit back and let people vote.

Why? The agenda. the ulterior motive damn everything else we'll keep watching we'll keep reporting our motto stands we can't stand any of them

not a one we're waiting for some heroes to show up not a one the last guy take a hike the guy before take a hike

The guy before, take a hike. The guy before, take a hike. The next guy or woman will keep our fingers crossed. So we'll go into next week. And as we always say, we have no idea what Monday brings. But the week did not finish well. There's still a big dose of bearishness. There is still very oversold.

but in bare markets, the rules change. And we're seeing it in real time. As always, if anything changes, we'll let you know. Our goal is just to get the main trend right. We've got the main trend right. Eventually we'll come out of this. We remain worried about a bust. There's still housing out there also.

higher rates and affordability. Not a good one-two punch. We'll keep on it. That all said, you have a great weekend. Drive carefully. And when you get home, do like we do, it's quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children.

They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise. Again, have a great weekend. Monday's same time. Hopefully, a better day. Good night, all. Take care. Bye-bye. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. VentureX. offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.

The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.