Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - ANOTHER CRAPPY WEEK IN REVIEW

Episode Date: September 23, 2022

Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com

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Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host day. Thanks of being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. Beats the heck out of me what day it is. Does it really matter?

Okay, it's Friday. It's September 23rd, 2022. We're here in, by the way, we're here in New York City. We're on our little Apple iPhone. app doing the radio show hope we're sounding okay but who cares if we sound okay right as long as we say comes out correctly and lots to cover wish we had better news well actually we have better news the market came off the lows today uh the bad news the market was still weighed down today uh we'll have our thoughts be careful why we say be careful

there's the trees and there's the forest when it comes to the market the trees are oh look what happened at the close today we bounced a little oh look monday we're going to bounce or maybe we won't Tuesday we'll do this we have nailed this market for you big picture thoughts since the highs bare market we've actually called counter trend rallies for you I will tell you one of them lasted about nine days. Another one lasted three days. Another one lasted a day. The last one lasted about seven weeks. And since that top, which we told you it topped, we've crumbled. So the big picture the whole year is miserable. Be careful about this. Wiggles and squiggles and all that. But first, if you do not get this show in your city, this radio show will post it at garyk.com. We'll also post it on our Twitter feed. You can follow us on Twitter.

You should follow us on Twitter. Just press the button at garyk.com for the Twitter. Or go to Twitter, put our name in. You can email me. Just be nice. So here's where we want to start today. And it's no fun, but this is where we want to start today. The Dow for the week, again, the Dow, down for over 4%.

1,200, 20 points. The S&P 500 for the week, down about 179. of 4.8%. The NASDAQ on the week. Down 5%. Not making this up. This is the week. For the month,

NASDAQ, down 8%. For the month, the S&P, down almost 7%. For the month, the Dow, down over 6%. Do I dare do the transports? Shall I? The transports

Down almost 12% on the month. The last ones are on the month. The transports have broken below the June lows. At the close today, the S&P has not. I will tell you intraday the S&P hit 3647, the low of June 3636.36. That is not any consolation. The NASDAQ hit a low today of 10-732, the low of June 10565.

Again, not a consolation. what I meant earlier in saying at the close today at one point today the Dow hit 29-250 finished 29 590 the Dow was down about 860 today 860 closed down 486 have I thrilled you yet Oh, by the way, the market wrap is brought to you by Investment-Dashmodels.com. That's Jim Rohrabak, one of the great market timers. No great areas with the man you're either in or out of the market with his proprietary indicators. Go check it out. Investment-dashmodels.com.

Dow down 486, 29590, S&P, down 64, 36-36-96-9693, NASDAQ 198, NASDAQ 198. I believe the NASDAQ was down 300. The socks down 35, not so bad. Transports down another 2C2.25. What's the worry? Why are we pretty sure we're going to break those lows, notwithstanding any little bounce? There's 2,740 stocks just on the New York and NASDAQ at new yearly lows.

Your average stock leads the way. Your average stock always leads the way. It was the clue in the last few days that we told you about that every day that number was picking up. And today, well, we just gave you out the numbers. What stuck out today? First off, yields were down a little bit. No biggie. Still elevated up at 3.7% on the tenure.

What's stuck out today? And we don't like talking about it too much, but we have lately. The dollar. Sword again today. Sword. And in case you did not know, a strong dollar is negative for our multinationals doing business overseas. Go check out why. It has also been a direct correlation with our markets.

So are you saying, Gary, if the dollar starts winning, it could be a help? Yeah, but it hasn't. The dollar is about as overbought as overbought can be. It is cheap to go to Europe. It is cheap to go to the UK. It is cheap to go to Japan. It is cheap to go to cheaper. I will tell you when I first went to the UK, it took, get this, $2.

an 8 cents to buy up one pound. So when we would go over there, it cost anything we bought was double. It only takes a buck nine now to buy a pound. Much cheaper, and I will tell you, the pound croaked today. Had a bad day today. Unbelievable today. What was the reason today?

Well, they were talking about how the United Kingdom announced something about lower taxes and this and that. Whatever the reason. Just a croaking day for the pound, which makes it expensive for them to come over here, cheaper for us to go over there. The euro now, the euro, it takes only 97 cents to buy one euro. When I first went to Europe, I believe it was a buck 60. Amazing. As I told you, November, I'm heading that way. Wow.

97 cents to buy a euro. Yay. So that's the story today. Oil prices. That's another story. As we have been saying to you, we've only had a few oil stocks with strength recently. The pipelines, a couple other names, while most others were nondescript in differing levels

of corrections, they broke down badly today. They croaked today. All the oil stocks got trashed today. That leads to the next question. Well, isn't that good news? It's a darn good question because the price at the pump is going to come down in a big way. Shouldn't that help the economy? We'll talk more. And the pound. This is the one only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge.

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It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. So, we don't usually want to talk currencies, but let me just read to you the explanation.

I'm going to read word for word. The embattled British pound fell 3.5% against. against the dollar Friday after the new UK government, you know you have a new prime minister there, announced a radical economic plan and a bid to boost growth. Sterling had dropped as low as 1.0869 extending losses it made after the measures were unveiled

in the morning in London. The pound has been on a precipitous fall against the greenback this year, hitting levels this month not seen since 1985. Friday's measures were built by the government is heralding a new error for the United Kingdom focused on growth and including a mix of tax cuts and investment incentives for businesses. In protesters also ditched the United Kingdom bonds amid a rise in expected government debt. Paul Johnson directed the Institute

for fiscal study said markets appeared spooked by the scale of the fiscal giveaway and said it represented the highest level of tax cuts in half a century. Well, first off, tax cuts are never giveaways. They are people and businesses giving less money to governments. Just remember, all giveaways are what we give to governments, not the other way around. They work for us. We don't work for them. So the implication is the Bank of English.

rates are like going to be higher for longer than they would have been otherwise. While textbooks suggest that higher short-term rate be currency supportive, the British pound has been demonstrating since the spring that this is not always the case. Whatever. I'm going to read up more about it. But what is our mantra? What is one of our main mottoes? It's not the news.

It's how things react to the news. And all I can tell you, Is the British pound croaked today? After already croaking. Cause an effect on our market? I don't know. Listen to these numbers. Advanced declines today.

Worse than yesterday. 474 up on the New York, 3819 down. NASDAQ 881 up, 3544 down. New yearly lows. 2740, New Yearly lows. nearly highs, as John Vernon said in Animal House, 0.0. Not much was left today. I got some green in some consumer staples, Colgate,

Clorox. Interesting enough, housing bounced a wee bit, but that has been crushed as of recent. It's really about it. about it. In the Dow Home Depot was up and Johnson and Johnson was up. But I was mentioning oils crushed. So good news, bad news. The good news at the pump, prices, if they just stay right here are going to come down markedly and let us be clear. The seven-month trading range has really now been broken to the downside. And as I look at, In the Dow Chevron, potentially the last seven months is just a huge top.

And as I go through oil stock after oil stock after oil stock, huge tops. Here's our worry, though. And I think it's a pretty darn good worry. Target. Big drop in earnings. FedEx, huge drop in earnings and says, we think we're in a global recession. And if anybody knows, it's FedEx.

And in case you don't know, the FedEx people are not big mouths. They are not like the morons that the Fed don't shut the hell up. When they said that, it's because they know it and believe it. And if anybody knows it, it would be Federal Express that delivers around the globe all kinds of products. So if oil prices are cracking, there is a decent assumption that FedEx knows what they're talking about and have got it right. The economies around the globe are in big trouble. In case you don't know, you know what's crumbling? The price of wood.

The global timber and forestry index is croplicated. Why? Demand? Of course. The price of cotton. Croaking. Why? Demand. And by the way, wood slash lumber. So all this talk about inflation, oh, there's inflation, but commodity inflation, it's going by the wayside. But probably for the wrong reasons. Probably, I take that back. for the wrong reasons. Financial stocks rolling over badly. And just about everything rolling over badly. That's what you get when you get a few days of advance declines like we've reported. All the commodities absolutely croaking gold, another new yearly low on the back of the higher dollar. And if you don't understand that, you go Google the words.

Why do commodities go down when the dollar is strong? Do a little legwork, do a little homework, and read into it. And of course, then there is the housing front. You know our stance. We saw somebody on TV saying, it's not going to be bad. That person doesn't know what the hell they're talking about. remember every data point every economic statistic and every asset price has been living off of zero percent interest rates addicted to it loaned off of it bought off it leveraged off of it that whole dynamic is changed and the other part of that dynamic is changed and the other part of that dynamic that has changed so much. It's the fact that it's changed so much in such a short period of time. And I can promise you

the markets in no way, shape, or form are used to it. But now all the latecomers are out. We'll explain the latecomers up next. On this, the one only Investors Edge. Hello, I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of Smart Talks with IBM. I recently spoke with IBM's new director of research, Jake Gambata. We discussed his vision for the future of quantum computing. At IBM Research, what we always do is answer what is the future of computing, whether it's coming up with new algorithms, coming up with better AI, coming up with quantum, or coming up with just how do different accelerators go together.

It's our DNA to answer the question of what is the future. Isn't it a perfect problem for IBM because you kind of need to have a legacy of building stuff? Yes. Building actual physical machines. Yeah, it's why I came to IBM. I wanted the experience the culture of building hard things that others have not done before. Where do you imagine we are in the timeline of this technology? There will come a point when it will mature.

Right? Yeah. My cell phone is a mature technology at this point. How far are we from that point with quantum? By 2029, we'll build the first fault-tolerant quantum computer. That is one that can run a very, very large, large problem. To learn how IBM is building the future of computing, visit IBM.com slash quantum.

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He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Coltbaum. highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to it. So, as you know, we don't take on anybody in industry. We take no joy in people losing money. And we're always amazed people making fun of other people that are losing money. We hate that. We don't want anybody losing a dime. Except maybe James Dolan, who owns the Knicks. Anyway, the latecomers are showing up. You know what we mean by that? The famous investment banks. One of them came out today and said we're changing our target for this year from 4,300 S&P to 3,600.

Now that it's 3693, I ask a simple question, how the hell does that help anyone? Hey, by the way, Cleveland beat Pittsburgh last night. How does that help a better? So they're all out now trying to save them. face. Nobody really cares though because they're latecomers. We're seeing a slew of downgrades by analysts on stocks that are down 50 and 60 percent, which of course comes under the heading, you will get no help from Wall Street in a bare market. So just remember this. We warned you in advance. We warned you about Wall Street. It's not an indictment of them. It's just who they are.

They're fully invested vehicles that never see bear markets coming. In the midst of what we've already know, they say, don't worry, it's just a correction. When it gets nasty, they're like, uh-oh, they get in their meetings, and then they come out and tell you, oh, by the way. But how does that help you? We know what's going on in the industry right now. Those of you that have managers of your money, that your accounts are down 30%, maybe 40. They're telling you, don't worry, everything okay. Think long-term.

We're long-term holders here. Think five years. But the problem is you may own Peloton in your account. That's down 90%. How does that help you? Down 90%. I know that's an outlier 90, but you know how many stocks are down 50% or more? A ton.

And that's why we always tell you, learn from what we do here. It's a simple roadmap. It's simple. We're maize more people don't follow. Instead, we get castigated, which is fine and dandy. We love that. It's a simple rule. Below the 50-day moving average, only bad can happen.

Doesn't mean bad can happen, but only bad can happen. Above the 50-day moving average, only good can happen. Doesn't mean good's going to happen, but only good can happen. nothing bad. If you're above the 50-day moving average and you break below the 50-day moving average, that's a change of complexion to the downside. If you're below the 50-day moving average and you break above, that's a change of complexion to the upside. And then you have to see if it sticks. I can tell you recently, everything broke back above the 50-day moving average in early July, in mid-July, and we acknowledged it. A few, a couple of weeks before that, we said to you

we thought the market was turning to the upside for a counter-tread rally. And then in late August, we told you things it topped. And then we broke below the 50-day moving average. And then amazingly, for one day, you got back above and then right back below, and that was it. Party. So you're going to whip around it, but that's where you've got to go in deep. That's where you've got to go in depth. That's where we scan 1,500.

to 2,000 names, 200 sectors, every country, every commodity, to recognize that even when we rallied up, most things look like crap. A bunch of days ago, when there was still a question, we did a webcast for our members, and what did we do? We went through every sector. Hundreds and hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of stocks. You know what we found? Not making this up.

out of the hundreds and hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of stocks, I think we found 11 in good shape. Now, one change of complexion that happened yesterday, anything that was holding up came after. And that's not good news. Even though we got emails from people, isn't that good news when they finally get the strongest names? No!

And we know where you heard that from. You heard it from dummies that think the market's bottoming on any little thing that happens. Do you know many times we have received mail, emails from people in the last three months about put-call ratios and this sentiment indicator and that sentiment indicator? Oh, and by the way, this happened today. And every time it's happened over the last 50 years, the market, a year from now, was way higher. We laugh at all that.

Why? Because all we need is to interpret the action today. to tell us what the big picture is. And sometimes it's not so easy. You get whipsawing. We've had a little whipsawing lately. But not once did we say the bare market had bottomed. Count a trend rally in a bare market is all we have said.

And now, since mid-August, all we can say is, holy crap. 4325 on the S&P to 3693. In two months. in this latest leg down. The NASDAQ in two months, 13181 to 10867. What is that about 17% without even thinking?

In two months. The Dow, the thing that's supposed to hold up best in the two months, 34-281 to 296. Last I looked, that's 36. Really? 4281, 4600 on, that's about 14, 13, 14%, 14% on the Dow. And don't get me started on the transports. Just crushed.

You know what the transports are down in two months? 20%. How many people called the bottom on that rally? A ton. So be careful. Technical condition is miserable. Worse than the last two days. As we always say, I have no clue what happens on Monday the next day.

We just know what the big picture is, and it is gross. Leadership is now gone. What was the last remaining group we told you? Solars? You know, there's a few solar names that have not broken down. They're just pulling back. But a few solar names have. And there's a symbol called T-A-N-T-T-N.

tan. It is the global solar energy index. That's broken below the 50-day moving average. Pretty handily. So not much left. Wish we had better news. And now the oils, say bye-bye. Yonked. History out of here. You'll be happy at the pump. But oil stocks, goners, interesting enough, while oil is crumbling, travel stocks are also. Normally travel related would go up. When oils down? Nope. Why? Guess what the market's looking at now?

The economy, economic growth, savings rates plunging, credit card usage skyrocketing, worry about the consumer, which is 70% of the economy, and then the housing market, as we predicted for you. And even told you we sold our real estate. and we're going to be ready to scoop up. We're just not there yet. Same for the market.

We're just not there yet. Out of every big market in history were great bull markets. And we're frothing at the mouth already. We're just not there yet. And I suspect odds favor. There's more work to be done. We got asked on TV today. We said we wouldn't be the surprise the C-3,000 S&P.

Do we predict that? No, but we would not be surprised. Up next, we'll finish off the week. I'm Gary. This is the one only investors' edge. Hello, I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of Smart Talks with IBM. I recently spoke with IBM's new director of research, Jake Mbata. We discussed his vision for the future of quantum computing. At IBM research, what we always do is answer what is the future of computing. Whether it's coming up with new algorithms, coming up with better AI, coming up with quantum or coming up with just how do different accelerators go together.

It's our DNA to answer the question of what is the future. Isn't it a perfect problem for IBM because you kind of need to have a legacy of building stuff? Yes. Building actual physical machines. Yeah, it's why I came to IBM. I wanted the experience, the culture of building hard things that others have not done before. Where do you imagine we are in the timeline of this technology? There will come a point when it will mature.

Right? Yeah. My cell phone is a mature technology at this point. How far are we from that point with Quantum? By 2029, we'll build the first fault-tolerant quantum computer. That is one that can run a very, very large, large problem. To learn how IBM is building the future of computing, visit IBM.com slash quantum. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it.

With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.APUS.edu.edu. Cash flow crunch. On Deck's small business line of credit gives your business immediate access to funds up to $200,000 right when you need it.

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Investors Edge with Gary Culper. And welcome once again to Investor's Edge. In the news, you know, we took on the Trump administration for their constant lying on a daily basis, and boy, they're just very good at lying. and out and open and the thing you can even you can verify

every lie they ever said I must tell you this administration is right with them it'll never get covered because the media is corrupt and in the tank

I remember they did I think it was the Washington Post did a thing on Trump where they listed all his lies they won't do that with this administration because

they're in the tank. But I've got to tell you, and we're careful with our words. These people in this administration, from the president down, they're just a bunch of bull crap artists. Just so you know, I live in Central Florida. On Wednesday, there is every chance a hurricane's going to come through. The map right now is reading that it's going to come through the Gulf and then come east through like the Naples, Fort Myers, Tampa area and cut across into central Florida.

And they're saying it's going to be like a hundred mile an hour winds. Sustained. That's some nasty crap. The administration, you know, they have these press secretaries who I always feel bad for it because they have to lie for the administration. I'm sitting here. If this occurs, wherever it hits, it's going to be tragic. people may lose lives, homes may be lost. Who knows what can happen?

This press secretary comes out today and says, what may happen in this hurricane season will be helped by Biden's historic investment to fight climate change. There are not enough straight jackets and rubber rooms for these people. They just may crap up out of thin air, just like they did with the Inflation Reduction Act. that's them shooting the middle finger at us. It's unbelievable to watch these people, and they say it with a straight face. They may get to the point where they take the championship belt on lying from the Trump administration. I used to tell you I'd have verified everything that came out of Trump's mouth, even to this day.

And I've got to tell you, he should shut up. He's in the crosshairs right now legally, and he don't shut up. To this day, he BSes us. But again, I got to tell you, this administration, they're getting there, if not, taking away the championship belt. What may happen in this hurricane season will be helped by Biden's historic investment to fight climate change. How are they going to fight climate change? Are they going to stop the hurricane? Just a bunch of ass clowns.

You're all in the tank on EE, the part. You should come into my tank. And you know what tank that is? Knowing that they're all full of crap. And you know how we know? Thirty one trillion dollars of debt by both parties. What have we told you? They're cursing each other out in front of the camera. I think they're drinking champagne and kissing each other's butt behind the camera. Look what we're getting away with. Maybe this should be a reality show keeping up a Congress as we take a camera to see what goes on behind closed doors. Oh, insider trading, big payoffs to friends. You know, they had a thing yesterday where they were speaking to the banks.

And in the midst of it, it's found out that one of the people in Congress is going to work for Bank America. And then the CEO Bank America said, yeah, the brother or the sister of that Congress person is already working for us. I wonder why that happens. It's a freaking cesspool, ladies and gentlemen. It's an incestuous cesspool of big money, big rules, regulations, fees, fines, mandates on our shoulders, making them rich. And you poor. Poorer. What may happen in this hurricane season will be by Biden's historic investment to fight climate change.

said with a straight face by the press secretarity for Joe Biden. And you wonder why I'm pissed off and frustrated. I'd like to see the president stand on the, what is it, the Skyway Bridge in Tampa, St. with a cape as the hurricane approaches, put his hand up. Stop. Go away. Is that how we're going to fight the hurricane? I'd like to think that's sarcasm and funny.

It ain't. So anyway, that's your week in review. We'll take the last 15, 20 minutes where they pop the market back. But there is no consolation in saying at the close today, the Dow was down 486, the S&P down 64. The NASDAQ 198, the NASDAQ 190, advanced declines. about 8 to 1 to negative on the New York, about 4.5 to 1 negative on the NASDAQ, 2,740 new yearly lows, no new yearly highs. And they took oil stocks and croaked them. I guess the only good news, the only good news today, price of the pump is going to come down even more. and I feel very good, especially for you drivers,

which means probably all you. I heard there's like 200 million people with driver's license. Anyway, you all have a great weekend. Monday I'll be on with Charles Payne 2 p.m. Fox Business Network. You have a great weekend, drive carefully. When you get home like we do, make sure you hug your family, make sure you hug your children,

they will feel better, you will feel better, I promise, always appreciate and always humbled by your president. that you'd ever listen to us. Hopefully we're doing the right thing for you. We think we are. Take care all. Bye-bye. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs,

APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.APUS.edu. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day.

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