Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Another crappy week in review [10.27.2023]

Episode Date: October 27, 2023

https://garykaltbaum.com/

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That's Tommyjohn.com, Code Comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Kaltbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Kaltbaum, your host.

A thanks for being with us today. Glad you're here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening. It is Friday. Yay. October 27, 2003. Hope you're having a good day. I just dropped my phone.

You know, we've been doing a deep dive for you to protect your capital. We really hope you're listening. We are not that guy on that network that's been on for 25 years, doing one hour of booyas. We have our little niche here, and we believe we tell a story. We're an open book. We're not all over the map. We listen back to our shows. We let the market be our guide.

And when things change, we let you know. And part of our process, and probably the most important part of our process, is to never be in any bare markets. Indices, sectors, stocks, countries, commodities, never be in big downtrends and being in recognition of what they look like, how they act, how they set up, and how do we avoid. One of the most important parts of the equation in being able to be able to be able to be.

to avoid bare markets at all times is encapsulated. Notice the big word. Encapsulated in one word. No, really. In one word. Divergences. We've nailed. We've nailed the drop for you.

in telling you to avoid and being out. Because of that one word, the latest one being what I believe to be in my history of the markets, which goes back to a certain date, but then I add in the fact that I have studied every market going back to the beginning of time I believe we have seen the widest divergence in history.

And when we tell you there, these divergences, we always say to you after that, oh, and by the way, they don't end well. And this one is not ending well. We have posted for you to go look at it. at a chart of the NASDAQ versus the NASDAQ advanced declines, in other words, the breadth of the NASDAQ, and you will see that it is crashed. What? What's crashed? The breadth, the advanced declines of the NASDAQ.

That's what has crashed. You see, it's been going on since 21. And as you know, the market bottom last October and the NASDAQ, last October, rallied into the recent high. The advanced declines on the NASDAQ rallied into January. They topped out in January while the NASDAQ kept going up. How is that possible? seven to ten names.

Some are calling it the magnificent seven. I say it's seven to ten. And all the time, there's an eventuality. Because the reason why these divergences occur is very simple, and I listen carefully. The big institutions that have to be invested, they meet and have their investment policy meetings every more. morning every other day and they're always looking at what they have and what they own and what's going on in the markets and all we can tell you is that things have deteriorated for months

while everybody's saying bull market and the NASDAQ's up this much this year and that much this year and this and that and we're trying to say it's seven to ten names some are calling the S&P 500, the S&P 493. The S&P 500 coming into today, equal weighting. Each of the 500 worth equal. Down 3% for the year. Not kidding. Bull market?

Seven stocks make up 29% of the S&P 500. Now why the hell did everybody jump into that? Why did the institutions keep jumping? Why? Because they're the biggest, most liquid, so you can buy them and sell them in size much easier than the smaller ones. And may I state for the record somewhat on the dependable side, since they're kind of sort of category killers.

But what ends up happening because they're buying into it, they become overvalued. they become over-owned, they become over-loved. Every account that gets transferred into me is overweighted in them. But what always happens, it's a sign of weakness in the markets and is usually an eventuality. And that simply is under the weight of the deterioration, under the weight of the weakness,

the fact that so many stocks have dropped so far, eventually and ultimately they come get the big ones. And that's that. That's how it works in a nutshell. And recently, they started to get the big ones. And may I state for the record, they're not even down that far. In 08!

Do you know Apple was down 60% in that bare market? Oh, we're not saying Apple's dropping. 60%. We're just stating they haven't gone down that far. But look at the effect they have had. In the last 10 days going into today, NASDAQ down 8.1%. And we were able to tell every single day, because every single time the NASDAQ was up, we would say to you, yeah, but advanced declines were 1,000 up, 3,000 down. How can the NASDAQ be? How can the NASDAQ be? up big. Well, Apple, Amazon, Google, Facebook, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla, and a smattering of others. Hey, guess what happened today?

After 10 days of nausea on the NASDAQ, it was up today. But what did they do again today? a big divergence, which is not good news. It's bad news. You can only keep a select few up for so long.

We've seen this before. In the 70s, it was the nifty 50. In 99, it was a select few tech and some internet before they turned to dust. And now, a select few tech. select 7 to 10. And by the way, the names are Amazon, Apple, Adobe, Broadcom, Facebook, Microsoft,

Nvidia, Tesla, and number 10 is Costco in size. So again, the markets, guess what they did today? That'll be up next on Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals.

Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-22-5-5-9. That's 888-4-2-5-9. That's 888-4-22-5-5-9.

Investment Advisory Services offered through call-bomb capital management. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John Underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game-changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you.

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It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. So.

The NASDAQ was up 47 today. Only one problem. The NASDAQ today, at one time, was up about 175. So they had it up real nice, but it came in. The NASDAQ 100 was up 70 today. But at one time it was up 210. But they were both still up. ready with the nasdaq up 47 and the nasdaq 100 up 70 the advanced declines on the nasdaq today were 1,302 up 2893 down with the nasdaq and the nasdaq and the nasdaq 100 up today we're not making the next thing up the new yearly highs versus new yearly lows on the nasdaq The new highs, are you ready? I have PDD Holdings, which, by the way, did not finish it a new high because it came in. I have something called Appfolio. But it didn't finish it, new highs, because at one time today at earnings, it was up 205 and closed at 188.

There were no new yearly highs on the NASDAQ today. New yearly lows? 557 new yearly lows on the NASDAQ. Now let's define new yearly lows. Well, the NASDAQ today finished at 12-6-443, but the yearly low is 10-262. The NASDAQ from the yearly low is up 2400 points from the end of last October.

How can there be 500 new yearly lows? lows because divergences. Amazon was up eight today on the earnings. Facebook up eight bouncing. Google was not down even though it's dead. Microsoft up two even though it was up seven. And Vidi up two even though it was up seven. Tesla up one and a half. Broadcom up 12. But then I look to my left on my big NASDAQ screen. It's beat red. But I'm not done. With the NASDAQ up 40, the NASDAQ 100 up 70. The Dow was down 366.

You got that? I do believe at one time, though, 32-3-279... Was down 450. The advanced declines on the New York Stock Exchange was 1075 up 2867 down. No divergence is there.

On my broad market screen, they're just kicking it in the teeth. And under the thought process of, it's not the news, it's how something reacts to the news. You know how much weight I've put on J.P. Morgan is a stock? Well, it finished down today, $5.11 to $1.35 and change. Now, you wouldn't think that's too much. But for a J.P. Morgan, it's huge and is completely broken into

new area on the downside, on volume, breaking the longer term 200-day moving average. What was the news? Well, Jamie Diamond, the CEO, for the sake of retirement planning, is selling $140 million worth of stock, which is about maybe 10% of the stock. Market didn't like that. That was news to me. But even more news that had nothing to do with J.P. Morgan, they continue to kick the banks in the teeth.

Another relative low for the big banks, the regional banks, and in case you didn't know, they matter. another relative low for the transports which by the way the transports were at 15,2009 days ago, closed at 13,556. You think everything's fine? Wait a minute, didn't they just report GDP at 4.9%? What have we told you about government statistics? You know how I perceive government statistics?

You ever wake up in the middle of the night because your dog Winston wakes? you just decide to turn on the TV. And you see a commercial, hey, take this pill and you lose 100 pounds. And they show this great, beautiful model with her handsome buffed man next to her. But at the bottom, you see letters, some words that Superman couldn't read.

And you know what they actually say? Results not typical. So they tell you how good the pills are, but it's really not typical. So they might as well, the infomercial might as well say, hey, we're a bunch of BS artists. That's how I take most government statistics. In case you did not know, and this is a fact, this is not an opinion. For the last 25 years, our government has changed the formula. So GDP is higher than it used to be based on the old formula, but inflicted. lower than it used to be based on the old formula. In other words, our government should be running these commercials at 3 a.m.

With the bottom saying, results not typical. You ever see the guy on TV, the preacher, with the worst freaking to pay in history? Yeah, you get this magical water. And get this water. And they parade a bunch of people. I got this magical water and I got a check for 25 grand. The IRS canceled my debt.

Results not typical. So when I get a GDP of 4.9% while I see credit card usage skyrocketing, late payments on credit cards skyrocketing, savings rates plunging, auto loan, yield you're paying, skyrocketing, skyrocketing, skyrocketing, skyrocketing, late payments, skyrocketing. Don't give me your BS 4.9%. I saw somebody saying, don't tell us it's the government spending. Of course it is. If the government's spending $6.6 trillion this year,

50% higher than 2019, and that goes towards GDP, what do you think? What's the old line? I've got to say it. Up next I'll say it. That's my music. This is the one only investor's edge. Guys, it's no use putting it off.

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See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Sprecker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen.

Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. You are listening to. America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that.

The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. Okay. I'm going to use a better word. The line is,

don't wee-weeat down my back and tell me it's raining. You got that? Anyway. So I've yet to hear anybody say we're in a bare market. Have you? They don't dare. But let's see. You know how they tell us

a bare market is 20%. Well, the transports have just gone from 16-7 to 13-5. Well, I guess that's getting near 20%, right? From this recent high.

Oh, by the way, it topped out at 18-2 and 21. The NASDAQ, interesting, is only down about, not that much. 14, 4 to 12, 6, 18, 12, 13%, 13%. Oh, but wait a minute. We never got near the old highs of 16.2. We're at 126.

Last I looked, that's 36 on 162. Oh, that's more than 20% from 2021. Oh, so wait a minute. Isn't that a bear market? The Russell 2000, hmm, it was just 2003, a couple of months back. It's 1636. Oh, wait a minute, from 2003, that's not yet 20%. Oh, but wait a minute.

It hit 2458 in 2021. Oh, that's 34%. So isn't that a bare market? I don't hear anybody calling it a bare market. But you know what? I couldn't give a crap what they call it. We're just letting you know that the average stock continues to deteriorate more and more, fewer and fewer. And again, today, the Dow down 366 and the NASDAQ up 47. The Dow down 366 and the NASDAQ 100 up 70. But with the NASDAQ up 47, NASDAQ 100 up 70, advanced declines with 13 up 29 down with one new high in 550. seven new lows, big gargantuan divergence. And that's what was the identification mark for us to be warning you and warning you and warning you and warning you and warning you. And that didn't change today.

Now, what may have changed, I mean Amazon came out with earnings and reacted well. I'm not going to argue that point. And that's one of the seven to ten. So hopefully it does better. Facebook had really good earnings, but came down, but still hanging in there. And I would just qualify or quantify or whatever Fy Facebook as being rangebound now going back to July, with a low of about 275 to 280 and a high of 325, 330. It's 296.

So that's okay, but Google was just smoked. and Nvidia is hanging on to its chin-chin-chin at the $400 mark. And Tesla was just smoked. And Apple, which reports this week, is acting like the south end of a northbound jackass. And it is true that they've been discounting in China. Adobe's been strong but just broke the 50-day. Broadcom has been strong but just broke the 50-day. And last but not least, Microsoft,

We'll just call Microsoft Rangebound. It's trading we're since June. But it gapped up and dropped 13 bucks the next day. It was up eight or nine today and finished only up two. Why? The market sucks. So we're just letting you know, ick. Strength today, gold had another good day.

Gold miners still not as strong, but gold definitely had a good day today. And coming up the right side. There was some earnings, good reactions, leave no doubt. Chipotle was up 80 bucks today. Terrific. But it was up 135 at one time, for instance. Decker's, and I got to tell you, I have to really, Decker's Outdoor, that's the Ugg Boots, up 91 bucks.

And that's a new high on 25% sales. you know what I'm doing this weekend I'm finding out what the heck they're doing right so there's some good reactions and then there are a lot more bad reactions I mean how about

kin sale capital which you know the insurance stocks have been pretty decent as of late it was a new yearly high a week ago it was down 83 bucks to $342 today. No, not kidding. Insurance stock?

Boston Beer. Boston. Down 45 bucks today. A chart of communications. What is the cable TV and crap? Down 39 bucks today to 372. How about an oil? Chart industries?

Down 36 bucks to 110? How about SEA? Trucker, down $33 to $344. How about another insurance broker? Erie indemnity down 19 to 273. Regeneron pharmaceuticals down 17. The Solars, N-Phase down another 15 today to 82. It was 339 in December of last year.

Oh, by the way, somebody downgraded it today. Hey, thanks. How about another insurer, Aon, down 13? Exponent. Consulting company down 12 to 72 bucks. Veracine down 12 to 192. Chevron on their earnings down 10 to 144. What the hell's going on there? And boy, oh boy, they announced they're buying Hess and the market just kicked it in its teeth. Big gigantic bloody nose. So we're just letting you know there's a lot of damage going on.

One of the Dow names that have been a help to the Dow, Amgen, down eight today. Down 27 points in the last nine days. Now they do report next week, though. But just another Dow stock going from not bad to downtrend. So we wish we had better things to tell you. The market's awful. And as we told you last Friday on this show, We use the word we kind of don't like using undone.

We said to you, the market felt like it's becoming undone. And we explained to you what we meant. Institutions just saying, screw it, sell more. And sell more. No, sell more. You have too much. How much did you sell? No, sell more.

And that's what's going on. while we have 4.9% GDP. Ha ha ha ha ha. Again, don't we weed down our backs and telling us it's raining. Oh, it's the Inflation Reduction Act. The Fiscal Responsibility Act. Yeah. Their Fiscal Responsibility Act has now foisted $2.1 trillion of debt onto our backs in the last five months

from this scum in Washington, D.C. I want you to remember they did a press conference to tell you how wonderful this deal was that the Republicans signed off on also. Just remember Joe Biden in the Rose Garden about how this was going to solidify the country and how fiscally responsible he was that he's lowered spending in the deficits. Our deficits up $2.1 trillion in five months. We've gone from 31.5 to 33.6 in five months. So when I use the word scum, I'm actually being a little too nice. You think it's no big deal because it's not coming out of your pocket. Remember what I've told you about them forgiving student loans?

They're able to do it and get away with it because even though we're all paying for it, ultimately, it's not coming out of your your bank, they know that since we're going into a bank account and it doesn't show, oh, a $200 debit because it's going towards somebody else's debt reduction, that they can get away with it. But now the first trillion of our tax dollars is going towards interest because they don't care. Debt and deficits are skyrocketing because they don't care. and God only knows what yields are going to do when all said and done. Up next, what else we got going on today?

This is the one only investors edge. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands and their innovative horizontal quick draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less.

Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit. for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase,

bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain.

Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need. explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads,

meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more, my... microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! In the Bester's Edge with Gary Kulpaw. We warned you about the electric vehicle companies. We've warned you about auto companies in general because They made huge bets on electric vehicles. Not because they wanted to, but they were politically forced into it, shamed into it. You know, Tesla, because they're not unionized, was never invited to the White House.

Political. But all these others were invited because EV. So Ford and all these companies spent all kinds, GM, all kinds of money. on electric vehicles, even though they had no clue about demand only because the scum in DC forced them into it. And now they've lost their arses on the electric vehicle business. You know what they're doing now? What a good company is supposed to do, you gauge demand and then you supply. you don't supply where there's no demand.

Oh, unless you're forced to by the scum in DC. So Ford is now slowing the pace of electric vehicles in battery manufacturing. Oops, ridiculously lower than expected demand. General Motors just scrapped its target to produce a cumulative 400,000 electric vehicles from now to 2024, well from 22. The CEO of GM

quote, taking immediate steps to enhance the profitability of our EV portfolio and adjust the slowing near-term growth. Brought to you by the scum in D.C. putting political pressure on companies to

invest and build on something where there just isn't the demand. That's what control freak Marxists do. They destroy. They're stupid. They're morons. They think they create a market, even if it's not there, to countow to their whims of climate change.

You know climate change, the thing that started with global cooling, and that it heated up and they changed at the global warming. and then it cooled down. They said, we've got to come up with a moniker that, wait a minute, we can be right all the time. Oh, climate change. And let's just con the hell out of the public into believing that we really do care about it while we fly private jets. John Kerry, they have the nerve to make him the climate change ambassador when he is the king of private jets, who had the nerve in an interview to say, but I'm doing God. work. I'm doing this for the country. But why don't you just fly, if you're going to England,

just go first class on British air. And John Kerry looked at the person like he was an ass. And let me explain why. Because they're a leader's DC scum that really don't care about you and I while they're all getting rich. And now the electric vehicle business is heading south. Where it stops, I really don't know. But everything we told you would happen is happening. Why? Because we understand business. It's quite simple.

If there's a demand, you supply. If there's no demand, you don't supply. And there isn't. And in case you don't know, even Tesla, the popular Tesla with quotations around it. Do you think Elon Musk is such a generous guy that he would lower prices, what, I think maybe a dozen times already around the globe? No, he's lowering prices because he has to in order to move. Inventory, that's Economics 101, which we're

hoping. We're teaching you well. Economics 101 is pretty easy. Logic. Logic dictates. and that's where we differ a little bit on yields. Everybody's talking about yields in inflation, we're talking yields in debt. Because the more debt we have, there's potential for people that lend on that debt to demand higher yields. Thus, bond market goes lower, yields go higher. And that's a worry. Because I got news for you. We don't want to see 6%, let alone 7%.

or eight on the 10-year yield. And that is not a prediction. We're just stating what we don't want to see. But don't worry, we had 4.9% GDP because our government told us so. You know, the government that said, the Inflation Reduction Act, wish we can put a better spin on all this, kids. we really can't. They're not letting us put a better spin on all this.

And unfortunately, they're making it too easy to rip on them on all this. And the markets are now indicating all this. and if they change as the greatest technicians on earth, we'll let you know. But another day of crappy advanced declines, crappy new yearly highs versus new yearly lows, and a continued parking of money into select few big names, even though a bunch of them are now on the defensive.

and one thing sticking out for me today is what they did to J.P. Morgan on that news. If it was a bull market for financial stocks, J.P. Morgan's stock would have been down a dime today. Instead, it breaks more support, 200-day moving average, and the rest of the big banks, the big banks,

just punched in the nose again today. And when you have a chance, just go take a look at the XLF and you'll know what the heck I mean. And all good news, you have a great weekend drive carefully. And when you get home, do like we do. Quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better.

You will feel better. Have a great one, everybody. Appreciate you joining us. Take care. Bye bye. has been Investors' Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on Biz Talk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryKK.com. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John

underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination.

Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.