Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Another Crummy Week In Review.

Episode Date: September 30, 2022

Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com

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VALA through 327. Selection varies by location. All supplies last. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Coltbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colbom, your host.

A thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It is September 30th, 2022. And we're here to talk about everything that, uh, who, who, I'm telling you and your money and all that fun stuff. between. Hope you're having a good day. We titled today's show, another crappy week in review or something like that. Just to go over, I mean, just wow. And we'll cover it all as we usually do. We have stated on quite the few occasions, this is the show. You better tell.

all your loved ones about. This is the show that has done a yeoman's job if you just followed the lead. This is the show that is a must have all the time. But as we've said to you time and time again, especially in bare markets. the simple reason why is one of our main rules. In bare markets, you will get no help from Wall Street. Let me tell you what you have been getting from Wall Street. Nothing.

You have been getting analysts downgrades from buy to hold after 70% drops. You're getting brokers and money managers. telling you, don't worry, everything's okay, it will come back. And you look at one of the stocks you own that's down 75%, and you ask yourself, why am I listening to them? You have pundits that have the nerve to go on TV that have been bullish all the way down, turned bearish in the last few weeks, and now tell you they told you so. You have people telling you you must think out five or ten years,

while your half million dollars is sitting now at $3.50. None of them spent the time to know the rules of bull and bear markets. Nobody has spent the time to study the characteristics of bare markets. In fact, do you know what I hear from most of them? The ones that are fully invested and tell you not to worry? Don't sell here. We're already down a lot, and nobody can tell you where the bottom is. That's what we mean by it.

And we've got to tell you, we've nailed bare markets in the past, but we doubly nailed this one because the drops have been gargantuan. In front of it, we told you there was going to be bubbles. In front of it, we told you where the bubbles were. we told you the bubbles would go coast to coast. That happened. One of the rules of bare markets, we were taught by the great William O'Neill,

that in bare markets, prior leaders of bull markets will drop on average 70%. And we knew that to be true because we've studied past bare markets, and it's happened again. One of the other rules is, eventually they will get them all. Do you know what they're getting now?

Apple. We told you that probably in the end they get Apple. And why? Oh, simple. The parking of money into a $16 billion for each dollar company. Very liquid 70 million shares trade a day. But valuations are almost double their norm throughout their last 10, 15 years. and earnings were down 8% last quarter. Revenues only up two. Now they're getting Apple. They've hit Facebook for 60%, Netflix for 70, tons of stocks in the 70s, 80s, 80s, bubbles in the 90s plus with some 100. The ridiculously priced IPOs, we warned you, they've all been crushed. We've walked you through some of them on the show. Actually, a lot of them.

IPOs that with $30 at IPO open at 45 that are now six. We warned you about the SPACs, the coins, the meme stocks, the short-squeeze stocks, the marijuana stocks, all the electric vehicle battery BS that was foisted upon you. Everything. Oh, and anything that loses money is. in a bare market will get crushed. Doesn't matter what they do, what they sell. And how do we know?

We spent the time. Unlike the people that are out there saying, you can't time the bottom, you can't. I got news for them. We're going to. It's not going to be to the day. That's been an impossibility. But it's going to be in a round.

And we still have seen no characteristics of bare market bottoms and price. We've seen it in sentiment But they've been saying that for four or five months Remember that we've been telling you about sentiment Been so bearish four or five months And they keep telling you the bottom is going to be put in because of that And we go lower and lower and lower And we told you another rule

Sentiment is different in bull and bear markets And that's played out So you get no help from Wall Street And we've used the word stunned To tell you about how far down some of the things are We're stunned unbelievably stunned. But then we go back to our studies of the past and realize they did the same thing in 2003.

They did the same thing in 2008. There should have been more bare markets, but our central banks prevented them with printing of money and zero percent rates. And this is what caused this. We'll call it a dislocation, for lack of a better word, in asset prices. So we hope you've been listening. we hope you will continue to listen and we hope you tell every one of your loved ones because we're going to work doubly hard

and I don't even know if you can do that because we just work our you-know-what-off every day but we also know another rule bottoms of bare markets spawn unbelievable stocks gargantuan movers we've listed a few for you we told you to study the few we've done it on our webcasts

It's too early to tell what names are going to be the biggies coming out of this. There are a few that are holding up great, but I think it's just too early. But boy, oh boy, are we going to be ready. And you know what those companies will have? The same characteristics. Monstrously strong earnings and sales growth and demand like you wouldn't believe. If it's a retail store, people are behind the block waiting online. If it's a technology thing, well, who knows what that can be.

I don't know a potato chip from a semiconductor chip. Actually, I do. So I repeat, we hope you've been listening. We hope you continue to listen. And we hope you tell everybody about everything we've been doing. Serious talk on you, your money, the markets, with a little comedy injected. But right now, we don't have much confidence. comedy, except when we watch the politicians.

But that's not comedic either because they were all our opponents, destroying us, killing us, pummeling us, into the ground. And this, what you are saying, is government created. Central Bank is the government. The debt and deficits is the government. Up next. Today's market wrap. Not another

Good day This is the one Only Investor's Edge Hi, I'm Gary Kallbaum Hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge We're not just handsome radio people We manage investors money for a living

Specializing in fee-based discretionary money management No big commissions Just a fee on the assets that's managed We also provide a full range of personalized services including retirement planning Fixed Income and Educational Needs All to assist

you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complimentary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-2-5-59.

That's 888-4-2-5-9. That's 888-4-2-2-5-9. That's 888422-5-5-9. Investment Advisory Services offered through Colbomb Capital Management. Hello, hello. I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of Smart Talks with IBM. I recently spoke with IBM's new director of research, Jake Mbata. We discussed his vision for the future of quantum computing.

At IBM Research, what we always do is answer what is the future of computing, whether it's coming up with new algorithms, coming up with better AI, coming up with quantum, or coming up with just how do different accelerators go together? It's our DNA to answer the question of what is the future. Isn't it a perfect problem for IBM because you kind of need to have a legacy of building stuff? Yes.

Building actual physical machines. Yeah, it's why I came to IBM. I wanted the experience, the culture of building hard things that others have not done before. Where do you imagine we are in the timeline of this technology? There will come a point when it will mature. Right? My cell phone is a mature technology at this point.

How far are we from that point with Kondo? By 2029, we'll build the first fault-tolerant quantum computer. That is one that can run a very, very large, large problem. To learn how IBM is building the future of computing, visit IBM.com slash quantum. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it.

With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.

www.edu. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum.

It doesn't get better than this. All right. First let me start by saying the video from Southwest Florida. My goodness. I think I said it. Yesterday, when Andrew hit, I lived in Bocca Raton, Florida.

It was the summer of 92. And myself and a few of my friends, yes, I have friends. We went down to South Miami, drove down, to help out. And they let us. And what we did basically for, I think we were there for two days, two nights, slept outside. We just a chain of 50, 100 people and supplies, just tons of supplies coming in, and we moved them and put them into the trucks. I mean, that's basically what we did.

But the National Guard drove us around. It looked like nuclear war. That's how bad it was. Just streets were leveled. You know when there's a street, and then there's no homes left, that's what it was. And if you go on Google Hurricane Andrew, go look at the visuals. It's stunning.

The visuals out of Southwest Florida, some of it rival. We don't know yet how far and wide it is, like South Miami. It was pretty far and wide. But man, oh, man, oh, man. Anyway, the market wrap is brought to you by Investment-Models.com. That's Jim Rohrabak, one of the great market timers. No gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market. With his proprietary indicators, go check it out.

Investment-mottles.com. We came on the show yesterday and said to you for yesterday, if somebody would have bet me $100 bucks on the market being up or down yesterday, I would have lost money. But again, those are the trees. It was a very rough day. I will tell you, today, if somebody would have bet me $100 on the market being up or down,

just today, I would have bet up. I would have lost $100 and badly. Of course, whenever, that's just the trees. again, the big picture we have nailed. The reason I would have made that bet is massively oversold, massively stretched and extended to the downside, massive amounts of indicators

on the sentiment front that the end of the world is coming. And interesting enough today, the Dow was weak, but the NASDAQ was really strong. And when the Dow went, The NASDAQ was up like a hundred and something again. And I'm thinking, ooh, I would have won that bet.

In fact, today, the NASDAQ was about 140 at one time. Didn't work. And why didn't it work? More of the same. Interest rates, the real market, not the central bank, the real market. interest rates, which had pulled back a little bit in the last couple of days, and this morning hit 3.686. Good. It's what you want to see. Nope, finished at 3.804 on the high tick of the day on yields. You went from a potentially good market to the market recognizing, what's up? The Dow is down 500.10.

Now, there was a culprit. We mentioned it yesterday, Nike, was down $12.21. And that should be about 80 Dow points. And here's the story, adding to the issues. Listen carefully. We explained yesterday, we're going to do it again. Because Nike affected Dick's sporting goods today. Nike affected Academy Sports today.

Nike affected Decker's outdoor today, but did come back decently. It was down 20, finished down 10, but Nike affected Lulu Lemon. Nike said that inventory skyrocketed a gargantuan 44%. And as we explained to how retail works, how any selling and buying works,

if there's too much of it and they need to move it or want to move it, they got to lower prices. If they lower prices, it lowers the profits. If they lower the profits, it's going to lower the stock price. And this is not happening because of, oh, a missed product. Oh, we sold a crappy product. It's happening because demand is in trouble. And I know government stats are coming out saying, oh, the consumer's still okay.

No, no, no, no, no, no. You know what we think of government stats, right? You know, the same government that brought us the $31 trillion in debt. Let's believe their stats. Sure. Every Dow stock was down at the close today. What have we said to you about Apple? They're finally coming after Apple.

And we kind of sort of warned you saying that felt like they were parking money into it. Do you know Apple this week? You ready? Drop $12.23. $195 billion a market cap this week. And let me tell you about my worry of Apple this second. it looks like a major longer term top. You got me?

And as we've said to you, I think we said it yesterday. Last four quarters earnings, plus 70 plus 25 plus 9 minus 8. Revenue growth plus 29 plus 11 plus 9 plus 2. Major deceleration while valuation is still up there on its norm. So that doesn't help. And Apple is 7% of the S&P and 13 in change of the NASDAQ 100.

And the big names, you know, when William O'Neill says they usually get them all, Netflix is still down 66.4% from its high of the last year. Facebook, 61.7. Everybody's favorite semiconductor, AMD, 61.5, and the other one, Nvidia. I get more questions about Nvidia than any other stock, down 65% from the highs. Apple, even with today's $4.40 drop, is only 24 and a half. But in the last bare market, it drops 60. Better not drop 60.

Up next, more on these markets. Interest rates, whatever else. This is the one only investor's edge. Hello, hello. I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of Smart Talks with IBM. I recently spoke with IBM's new director of research, Jake Mbata. We discussed his vision for the future of quantum computing. At IBM research, what we always do is answer what is the future of computing, whether it's coming up with new algorithms, coming up with better AI,

coming up with quantum, or coming up with just how do different accelerators go together. It's our DNA to answer the question of what is the future. Isn't it a perfect problem for IBM because you kind of need to have a legacy of building stuff? Yes. building actual physical machines. Yeah, it's why I came to IBM. I wanted the experience, the culture of building hard things that others have not done before. Where do you imagine we are in the timeline of this technology?

There will come a point when it will mature. Right? My cell phone is a mature technology at this point. How far are we from that point with Conton? By 2029, we'll build the first fault-tolerant quantum computer. That is one that can run a very, very large, large problem. To learn how IBM is building the future of computing, visit IBM.com slash quantum. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it.

With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.APUS.edu. Today, we're exploring deep in the North American wilderness among nature's wildest, plants, animals, and cows?

You're actually on an organic valley dairy farm, where nutritious, delicious, organic food gets at start. But there's so much nature. Exactly. Organic Valley's small family farms protect the land and the plants and animals that call it home.

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Investors edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Coltbaum. I'm highly recommended. you're going to feel better if you talk to. So for a very long while, we told you that every asset price, every data point, every economic statistic was living off of and addicted to, 0% interest rates and massive amounts of money printing.

We warned you that the biggest distortions was in the bond market, especially the junk bond market. And we better never get to the point where the market shoots the middle finger back at the central bank. we use those words we also use the words that we never want to get to the point where the market is like every ex-girlfriend and every ex-boyfriend you ever had you know the ones that break up with you

but you want to stay with and you keep calling them trying to get them to go back with you but they don't want to hear from you anymore that's the market now the market has shot the middle finger back at are central bank that controlled markets for so long, and thus you're seeing. And every tick up in rates is a bad tick to the upside.

And today started off good, ended bad. And the market suffered because of it. Simple as that. Wish I had better news. And they're getting everything. No stone unturned. There's a few things that have good. relative strength they'll get them to but now all the big guys remember fang got own fang got own fang

do you know i think it was august where barons had a front cover unbeatable unbeatable big cap technology yeah uh s mp down 54 nasdaq let me tell you that nasdaq was rocking today and holding up great but a 500 point drop in the dow ain't gonna hold them up NASDAQ down 162. NASDAQ 100-193. Transports 200. Do you know advanced declines when the Dow was down $3.50 was still up on the New York and NASDAQ? But that last drop at the end of the day took it down.

But advanced declines, not bad at all. Price-wise, though, whatever they took down, oh, they took down. And I'll repeat what I've said the last few days, we're stretched, extended, oversold, A lot of bearishness, a lot of worry, hasn't mattered. I would have lost the $100 bucks the last two days. But we've got the big picture right. Since last November, I think we've delved into the markets five or six times. I think maybe I think six.

All counter-trend moves. I can tell you two times I think we stopped out the next day. One time we stopped out a few days later. Two times we made a little. One time we made decent. But we're pretty much close to the flat line since the top of the market. Give a take. And we don't say that often, but we're just telling you how we're doing this.

And we just a ton of cash. And you know what the good news now is. We're actually making money on our cash. Before we're making zero. Why? because the central bank screwed us and you. And now I was looking at money markets, 26, 27, 28.

Something like that. So I have nothing good to tell you. Nike just puts another pin into the balloon. Pops it. Just remember Nike, FedEx, Target, Walmart. There's some important stuff, kids. Oh, Dell, Eulet Packard, we warned you about those beforehand.

I didn't even come up with it. I read some story that their inventory skyrocketed. Turned out it was correct. So at the end of the quarter, there was no, well, you know what the end of the quarter window dressing was, right? Just get me to hell out. And for the week, the NASDAQ finished down 2.7%. the S&P for the week, 2.9%. The Dow for the week, 2.9.

But get this for the month, the Dow dropped 2780 points or 8.82%. The S&P 500 dropped 368 points or 9.32%. The NASDAQ dropped 1,2 points or 10.5%. The transports 14%. for thine month of September. I'm already getting the emails. You think October can save the day? Answer is, I don't know.

But what I do know is we'll be on top of it on a day-to-day basis. And so far, I've seen no characteristics of major bottoms of this brutal bear market. All right, what else? I'm being asked about Home Depot, Lowe's, construction. for the hurricane. I'm not so sure. How about that? Not so sure. Leave no doubt they'll do more business.

But we're in a bare market for stocks. I'm being asked about Putin. I don't know if you know what this schmuck did, but this murderous schmuck, he annexed some of Ukraine and he's talking tough and actually talking like he's about to go nuke. I'm actually being asked, do I think he's going to go nuke?

I think he's going to go chemical. weapons. I think he's trying to push it as much as possible. Why? Because most everybody's just sat around. And he's losing as you know what. He's losing. And you know what people like this do, murders like this do when they're losing, they get desperate. The hope is some Russians over there take them out. And I don't mean murder them, but just take them out. But that ain't happened neither. And I don't think that's good news at all. Just ads. But for me, the bigger story, we told you months and months and months ago before anybody else, inflation going to lead to the recession and it'll be a good one. I think we're getting one. So just be ready.

Now, does that mean the Fed's going to turn and ease? And will that help markets? I think yes on the first, because they're easy money people, any excuse, but right now not. They were out today saying, even if we're in recession, we're still going to raise rates. Not a good thing to say, but they still did because they're morons. But ultimately, they're going to have to make a move, which doesn't throw me. I'd rather them all be fired. Send them to Iceland or Greenland or Siberia. and in the past it's helped the markets

not so sure this time what else I gotta mention Carnival Cruise lines down 23 and a quarter percent today average daily volume 52 million did 235 million today believe it or not broke the lows of the pandemic

holy crap a huge loss and I heard somebody on TV said their cost of fuel this year, $668 million last year 182, and food $259 million last year 52. That ain't going to help, but all I know is broke the lows of the pandemic. That's stunning. stunning and by the way

this is not about sales they did 2.4 billion in the quarter they lost a buck 64 and I've got I have yet to read through all the numbers I'm going to do that tonight and of course it affected the other cruise lines wow

housing numbers still coming in not great my own tests and looking not great be ready Up next, news of the day. Some weirdos to report on. This is the one only investor's edge.

Hello, I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of Smart Talks with IBM. I recently spoke with IBM's new director of research, Jake Mbata. We discussed his vision for the future of quantum computing. At IBM research, what we always do is answer what is the future of computing. Whether it's coming up with new algorithms, coming up with better AI, coming up with quantum or coming up with just how do different accelerators go together. It's our DNA to answer the question of what is the future. Isn't it a perfect problem for IBM because you kind of need to have a legacy of building stuff?

Yes. Building actual physical machines. Yeah, it's why I came to IBM. I wanted the experience, the culture of building hard things that others have not done before. Where do you imagine we are in the timeline of this technology? There will come a point when it will mature. Right? Yeah.

My cell phone is a mature technology at this point. How far are we from that point with quantum? By 2029, we'll build the first fault-tolerant quantum computer. That is one that can run a very, very large, large problem. To learn how IBM is building the future of computing, visit IBM.com slash quantum. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop.

You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.APUS.edu. But do this animal And this animal And this animal? Have in common? They all live on an organic valley farm. Organic valley dairy comes from small organic family farms

That protect the land and the plants and animals that live on it From toxic pesticides, Which leads to a thriving ecosystem And delicious, nutritious milk and cheese. Learn more at ovi.coop and taste the difference. You're listening to What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for?

One, two, ready, go. Action! In The Bester's Edge. With Gary Culpa. So, as you know, one of our other thoughts is we've never been more optimistic on us. I'd never been more pessimistic on them, them being, you know who, in both parties. We can't stand either. They're nauseated.

I just got to read some to you on two people that lost elections, but they were candidates. And I just got to read to you what they said. Talk about dodging a bullet. But there are others out there that are just as insane in D.C. Get this. Two former congressional candidates are pushing the outlandish claim. Get this. The deep state is using weather manipulation technology.

to drive up Hurricane Ian strength to punish the governor. These are two Republicans, of course. We understand that the deep state, they have weather manipulation technology. Get that. Weather manipulation technology. They know how to manipulate and create big storms, hurricanes, tornadoes, said Diana Lorraine, who unsuccessfully ran in 2020 for Congress in Nancy Pelosi's district. no comment on Nancy Pelosi.

I'm not making this up. Went on to say these huge hurricanes seem to target red states, red districts, and always at a convenient time, typically right before elections. The other guest on this radio show was Lauren Witsky, a former Republican nominee for Senate in Delaware. She says, we know the technology does exist. and I mean they're literally trying to change people's DNA through vaccination. What is going on out there? Seriously.

What is going on out there? They went on to say, oh, and it does seem to be hitting the conservative areas of the state. Yes, just so you know there's an entity out there that's actually making hurricanes stronger and directing them into certain areas of a state, moving them. I'm not making this up. Both of them were running for Senate. And you know what the bad news is? One of them was running against Nancy Pelosi.

An insider trading grifter that has made herself and her family unimaginably rich while crushing the country. She's voted for $26 trillion of a $31 trillion of debt. And the only reason she hasn't voted for $31 of our $31 trillion is the first $5 trillion was before her. Which has me asked in the question, maybe we've been. be better off with the one that thinks that we can move hurricanes around. It's like we're voting for the flu versus pneumonia in the elections these days. Anyway, I just had to read that to you. And of course, the media sucks as usual. Absolutely sucks. I have absolutely no bias can't stand anyone. I'm letting you know, Santhus has done an A-plus job and you know what the media is doing.

well you know well they're preparing and you couldn't do anymore but they're crooked and corrupt that's why you got to verify anything anybody says you know i used to get the USA today newspaper I had to drop it you know why every time I every morning picked it up they were telling me I was racist every day see ya they're insane there are colleges in California won't let Jewish speak speakers come there and nobody's reporting it. One of them is Berkeley College. These people insane. I don't know what's going on out there. These people supposedly believe in equality, but only their equality and only their likes, not yours. It's so weird. But we're going to continue to put our head down. Fight for the fight, fight, fight for the right, and we'll see where

the markets decide to take us. You know where we stand. We still have not seen one characteristic of a major bear market low. Just counter-trend moves. And as we told you, we thought a couple they lasted a day and a half. Now, one of them lasted about 10 weeks, and that was a good one. Another one lasted a few weeks. But bad finished today and yields finish bad today. And if yields keep going up and break through 4% on the 10 year, we will be going lower. Just need you to know that. Wish I had better news. And man, just a sorrowful finish to the week.

And now they're getting them all with no bias. And as we stated at the outset, we really hope you are listening. Some of the damage that's been done is stunning. And this one is becoming for the ages in many areas. of the market. Went for the ages. We never thought 2000 to 03 would be beat out.

Now, guess what? The NASDAQ were down in the 80s there. I'm talking about all these growth names. We're amazed. We're stunned. And you can't ever forget it. Pelotons down 93% from the high. Square, 80%. Remember square.

They changed their name too. PayPal, 70. These are names you know. And of course, the fads, beyond meat, 87%. Down. We warned you about that. Ain't nobody eating plants. It'll be good for a while.

I never touched it. Never will. Sorry. Can't help you. All right, anyway, tomorrow's my birthday. Wish me a happy birthday. Have a great weekend. Drive carefully. If there's something you can do for the people in Southwest Florida, please. Monday will be on with Charles Payne 2 p.m. Fox Business Network.

Oh, tomorrow I'll be on Fox News between 10 and noon in the morning with Neil Cavuto, 11 o'clock hour. Don't miss that. And until Monday on the weekend, make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise. Take care all.

Thanks. Bye-bye. This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, Go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it.

With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU. A.uS.edu.

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