Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Another Flip Flop

Episode Date: April 11, 2023

Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com

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Visit the prodesk or Lose.com slash terms for more details. Subject to change. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host day. Thanks of being with us today.

Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening. I think it's April 11, 2023. Here to talk about everything that matters to you. We'll start with guiding you through markets. We'll get into what's causing them. We'll get into news of the day that kind of sort of has something to do with markets because as we have told you on a thousand occasions we never used to have to talk about them. You know what we used to do on this show?

The whole time markets and then massive debt. massive deficits, massive intrusion, central banks interfering with free markets, socialists, Marxists, rules, regulations, fees, fines, mandates, taxes, lies, cheaters, stealers, and all that crap. By the people running the country and in plain sight. In plain sight. So unfortunately, we have to include them because unfortunately, they matter. these cretons matter so we'll inject them into the equation a little bit later on the show because man there were a few things that stuck out for me today and remember our motto i have never been more optimistic on most of us i've never been more pessimistic on all of them and unfortunately

they're like the old movie The Blob. You ever see that movie? The Blob started out as this small gelatinous monster and as it goes from street corner to street corner just gets bigger and bigger and bigger till it eats everything in its way. Finally, at the end of the movie, I guess they figured out if you put it on ice

everything will be a okay and they sent it to like Antarctica unfortunately we cannot send these miscreants to Antarctica and freeze them over they are there and the problem is you vote one out the next one is worse anyway hope you're having a good day we certainly are let's see schedule well no schedule I'll be

doing the show the whole week. But we'll be in New York City Thursday and Friday working out of our little abode there. It's like a, we'll call it our Airbnb that we get in New York City and do our thing. Thursday we will be doing the whole hour of Varney and company, 10 a.m. hour. Thursday, Friday, I believe, will be scheduled for Cavuto in studio in the noon hour. That one's not definite yet because the news changes everything. That's how it works. So, in case you didn't know, this is Investor's Edge, serious talk on you and everything that affects you when your money and the markets and all that crap in between.

Simple as that. With a little comedy injected when necessary, but we don't have a lot of comedy these days. Of course, you can listen to the show. posted at gary k.com we'll also post it on our twitter feed if you don't follow us on twitter go check it out put our name in or go press the button at gary k dot com of course we used to have 90 000 followers and one night we in one morning we wake up we were down to 30 000 we contacted twitter they could not answer and they would not answer this is a couple of years back and it was like a week after they they shut me down for a week because i said that bernie sanders economic

policy was communist like. While the mullahs in Iran are calling for the death of people in Israel, they shut me down for a day. Don't you love the people that were running Twitter? Anyway, you can email me, all you got to do is be nice. That's all simple of that, be nice. You disagree with me? Just be nice.

You vehemently disagree with me. Just be nice. I vehemently disagree with people that email me, and I'm nice back. Why not? You know what markets are made of? Disagreement. And that's that. So, Friday, let's start this way.

Just want to let you know. BlackRock, Citigroup, J.P. Morgan, PNC. Bank, Wells Fargo. Gary, what do you think is going to happen with the banks? I have no idea what's going to happen on earnings in the banks. there's my answer. We tell you straight up when we just don't know. And anybody who tells you they know what's going to happen on earnings is BSing you. Because there's no way of knowing.

Now let me tell you what is happening with the banks. They were crushed. They were smoked. They were blasted. Some worse than others. The smaller ones worse than others. Why? Because the smaller ones are less liquid and less to the market trustworthy.

When you have bank runs, they look to the big ones. but even the big ones came down. Now, let me just state for the record. For the last four weeks, they have stopped going down. They've stopped going down. Some of them have edged up higher. Some a little bit more than others. Today was better tone, though they sold them down a little bit at the end of the day, but mostly green.

The lenders were a little bit better to cap. Well, not lenders, the credit card companies, because they're just bookies anyhow. Capital One, Discovery, Financial. they were better day, MasterCard Visa also, other great bookies. Yeah, they're just bookies. You don't know that? Anyway, we would love to own some financials here, but we've got to wait for earnings. Why would we love to own financials?

Well, they threw everything out. Because of this, everything was shot the heck. But longer term, would I own them? No, not really. I don't think they have a lot of power. But aren't they saying all over TV got on the big ones? Yeah, they are. Not so sure of that.

So I don't own any right now, better tone today, but you got to wait to Friday to see the reaction, see what they have to say. Now, I do want to let you know there's a few things going on that could impact them negatively. Credit contraction. What does that mean? Well, there's less credit being extended

because they'll worry about the banks, things like that. and if there's less credit extended, that's less profits for the banks. And we already know, you know, a lot of these especially investment banks, there's hardly any initial public offerings, there's hardly any secondaries. They're not doing any more criminal spats anymore. Mergers and acquisition, much less than recent years, though some of that's going on. But that impacts numbers. And then trading. Just remember a lot of these banks, they have big trading operations.

Less trading, less. You get my point. So we're going to watch very closely. We'll see what happens. It's not the news. It's how they react to the news. And we'll see what happens there. That's the banks on Friday.

Next week starts the bazillions. Starting next week for about three weeks. Definitely two weeks. Just tons of earnings, tons. I can't tell you how I keep up. We just do. We know when somebody's reporting. We know what they're supposed to report.

We see whether they beat. We see the reactions. And they all report after the close or before the open. We'd rather they report after the close. Why? Because we have time at night to adjust to what's going on. Before the open is a little bit different story. You'd have less time.

And we'll know a lot more as we get through earnings. What are the worries? Some of the worries are pretty simple. You know what the worries are. Less business. In technology, the worry about how much cannibalism there was through COVID, we're hearing that. And we warned you seven months ago when we told you that the three top PC makers inventory skyrocketed, which simply means, ain't selling as much.

And now we're here, they ain't selling as much. Ain't a word, by the way, in spite of what people say, at least in my world. So I don't usually say this often. We let everybody else. This is an important earnings season, especially the guidance. Why? Some of the strongest movers of the last few months are things like, well, let's see. Facebook.

It's that a strong move. even though the last four quarters, earnings down 18, down 32, down 49, down 52? Now, I will tell you the guidance for this coming quarter much better than the last few. But if you don't re-accelerate the numbers, you end up with high valuations.

And then you know what that means. Up next, we'll explain more. I'm Gary. This is the one on the Investors Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalpom, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management.

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call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-2-5-59. That's 8-8-8-5-9. That's 888-4-2-2-5-9. Investment Advisory Services offered through call-bomb capital management. No matter the occasion, snack time should be easy. That's why Skinny Popcorn keeps it light, airy and endlessly delicious. Skinny Pop is made from just three simple ingredients,

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I'd learned a few things, like how family is precious. Work can always wait. And 99% of people over 50 already have the virus that causes shingles. Not everyone at risk will develop it, but I did. The painful, blistering rash disrupted my life for weeks. Don't learn about your shingles risk the hard way. Talk to your doctor or pharmacist today. Sponsored by GSK.

It's time to switch on the integrator. and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promise is to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this.

And welcome once again to Investors Edge. By the way, you know what my favorite news of the day is? A federal judge has ruled today that Theranos founder Elizabeth Holmes must serve time in jail while she pursues an appeal on her conviction of screwing everybody. What a massive fraud that she put upon so many people. And you know that certain somebody on that certain business network had her in an interview and said she's the next Steve Jobs. She was sentenced to more than 11 years in prison in November and she's on appeal right now. screw her

her executive Sonny Belwani Ramesh Bilwani had a relationship with who's also

convicted on 12 felony counts of the frauding investors in patients in July and was sent to almost 13 years

in prison do you know what they would their product was supposed to revolutionize

getting your blood work and imagine they actually do it for patients that have

real illnesses and it came back the other way way she should do 50 years the skank anyway I was excited to see that they're going to keep her in jail anyway that was a little news of the day I just wanted to interject because it just stuck out for me all right today's market wrap well first off got a lot of response from yesterday beginning of the show I did this little dissertation about everything the negative people are

saying not disagreeing with them but all the talk of the world type world ending type talk but I entered each statement with but we're just going to watch the markets and let them decide got a lot of good response to that and we just want you to remember that you have to understand my industry you have people we call them perma bears they're always calling for crashes depressions, end of the world type scenarios. Why? It sells.

It sells. But we have to recognize them. And when the markets finally give them their due by finally having bad markets, they get louder and louder. But we're letting you know, markets, if they turn bullish, don't care. about anything they say so our job is to cut through what they say and just follow the markets if the Dow wants to go 50,000 here it's 33,000 by the way if it wants to go to 50,000 it will do it in spite of them market doesn't care about them and no that's not a prediction we're just letting you know in bare markets you've got to drown out the permabuls and you know who they are

There's most of them. And in bull markets, you've got to drown out the permit bears. There are absolutely no help. Zero help. I promise you that. Okay. Back on today. The market wrap brought to you by Investment-Models.com.

That's Jim Roerbach, one of the great market timers. No gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market with his proprietary indicators. Go check it out. Investment-dash-models.com. Flipflop. the 8 NASDAQ 100 down 87. The opposite of what we've been saying. With the NASDAQ down 87, advanced declines on the NASDAQ were 25 to 17, a flip-flop.

They actually sold off some of the biggies today, which the best way I can put it is they were way overdue. And there's nothing wrong with that, but just remember, we got earning soon. We got earning soon. We got earning soon. And that'll dictate policy. So stay tuned. And that'll be not this week, but in the next couple of weeks when we get Apple, Amazon, Google, Facebook, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla, which are 52% of the NASDAQ, 124% of the S&P. And of course, the people at the S&P and the NASDAQ 100 don't give a crap what I think, but they really should change the structure.

Do you know why? What if those seven go to hell? oh Gary it's Apple Amazon Google did you know that Amazon has gone from a high of 188 it's 99 oh okay did you know that Google has gone from a high of 150 to 105 oh okay do you know that Facebook went from a high of

383 down to a low of 88 it's back to 213 by the way You know that Tesla is at 186. You know, everybody's talking about, oh, what a good move off the lows. Do you know it was 414 November of 21? So anything's possible. And I believe Apple and Amazon are 22%. Just those two of the NASDAQ 100, maybe 24%. Now, Apple, like a rock.

Like a rock. but do you know in the bare market of 0809 Apple went down let's see this split adjusted the high was $7.5.5. It went to $2.79. That's like 60% drop in that bare market. So what if we end up with a real big bear market

in the NASDAQ and not just what we've seen? Just asking questions. And we're not predicting anything. So there's going to be something to watch. So Flip-flop day was much better, though. Today, a little bit opposite of the close of yesterday. The Dow today at 335 was up 180, closed 98. The NASDAQ at 335 was 12,085, closed at 12,031.

So they sold it off a little bit at the close. So weaker NASDAQ that day, better what we call stuff day. Strength was commodities, which got trash last week. Transports got trash last week. Energy. OPEC is being thanked. The energy stock says OPEC did what they did. And unfortunately, oil prices were up another buck in three quarters today.

And we're just letting you know flat out. Flat out. Gas prices at the pump. in about a week will be up another 10 cents on top of what you already just saw better action today in transport types they were trashed last week industrial types they were trashed last week economically sensitive stocks bounced today they were trashed last week Gary what the heck's going on here one week is the markets talking recession the next week better that's another week up next next more on what we're seeing and some other news. This is the one only investors' edge. For many men, mental health challenges aren't recognized until they've already taken a toll. Work pressure, financial stress, changing relationships,

and traditional expectations around masculinity can quietly wear men down. Often without clear warning signs, in season three of the visibility gap, Dr. Guy Wynch and his guests explore how these pressures show up, how to spot them earlier, and how men can access meaningful support. Listen to the new season of the visibility gap, a podcast presented by Cigna Healthcare. No matter the occasion, snack time should be easy.

That's why Skinny Pop popcorn keeps it light, airy and endlessly delicious. Skinny Pop is made from just three simple ingredients, delivering an irresistible taste without being complicated. Skinny Pop simplicity allows you to freely enjoy as much popcorn as you want. Just open the bag and enjoy. No overthinking, no tough choices. When it comes to snacking, Skinny Pop just makes it. sense. Deliciously popped, perfectly salted. Skinny Pop, popular for a reason. By the time I hit my 50s, I'd learned a few things, like how family is precious. Work can always wait. And 99% of people

over 50 already have the virus that causes shingles. Not everyone at risk will develop it, but I did. The painful, blistering rash disrupted my life for weeks. Don't learn about your shingles the hard way talk to your doctor or pharmacist today sponsored by gs k we're listening to america is talking investors edge he's got to be pleased with that the crowd is just on his feet here he's a Cinderella boy with Gary Colbomb comes highly recommended you're going to feel better if you talk to him and what once again to investors edge next I know you're hearing about Bitcoin and the crypto On certain things, we say very carefully, we'll let you decide.

Our mantra on the crypto stands and was 100% right when all was said and done. Even with this move up, we had said in front of everything, 90% of the coins would drop 90% or more with most going to zero. That is exactly what happened. We didn't even know. People try to come out with 23,000 coins. Each one was trying to be the next big coin. Hey, I'm going to come out with a coin. Maybe it'll hit.

Because remember they came out with the dogy coin? The dogy coin came out as a lark. Came out as a lark. and went from zero to like 70 cents it's now 8 cents it's worth zero Elon Musk tries to get it moving

obviously he owns some it should be obvious now that the Bitcoins Ethereum there may be some others are going to stay around they ain't going anywhere and every now and then they're going to romp

and Bitcoin made a move and we have said to people, look, just letting you know the crypto crap, you got a few names that are just crap. Without naming the name, I have one that went from $3,637 at the high. It hit a low of 51 cents in 2020. It's up to 12 now. I wish I bought it a 51 cents and it's now 12. But I do want to let you know it went down to 51 cents in March of 20, rallied to 80 bucks in 21 and dropped the three and a quarter as of recent. You go have fun with that.

Pure specs. But we're just letting you know there is a bid in the bid. Bitcoin, less so in the Ethereum, and some of the crypto names. We stand by our words. There's nothing that backs this up. There's no earnings. There's no revenue. It's just they go on the move every now and then.

We don't know why. It just happens. And we're going to let you decide with them. And they can go higher. what we do want you worry about are the all right i'm going to be nice people like kathy wood of the arc funds that has the gumption

gumption's a word right that i think gumption is like the nerve right i'm looking it up gumption would i even come up with that word she had the gumption to put a foot down in head okay yeah that's about right horse sense no gumption is

determined and full of courage no that's not the word I want to use she has the nerve to actually tell the world oh it's going to a million bucks by by 2030 by 2030 and she added

it's probably going to go to a million a half if I was on our board I'd fire her that same day for that irresponsibility just be careful technically they're shaping up. They're getting a bit. There's nothing behind it. No earnings. No sales. No nothing. The thought process is, well, the worry of the dollar, the Fed may be not tightening anymore, loose money gets people all frothed up. I don't know the reasons. I don't care. Just don't be the last one in when it hits another wall again.

and again it can definitely go higher it can definitely go higher no argument did you hear the numbers I gave out when they dropped that was real world numbers and again you can go to a lot of these websites and go look at the 23,000 coins where most of them are zero

and those are just people hoping for a moonshot hey maybe it can come out with the next bitcoin even though it's meaningless. Anyway, that's my thoughts on that whole thing. That's my thoughts on that whole thing. Am I surprised they're rallying it up again? Yeah. When bubbles pop, they usually pop for good.

They pop for good on a lot of things already. I was going over some smacks last night that have gone from whatever price down to 10 cents. Why they merged them with just crap. It was just one big gigantic scam. brought to you by a bunch of money-grabbing scammers, brought to you by Wall Street. That believes in anything that moves without doing your homework.

And that's why we plead with you. Got to do your homework and understand if you pay $10 for $1 bill, it may be you think it's worth $10 today, but eventually it's going to be worth a buck. That's how markets are. there always is an eventuality. Always.

There always is an eventuality. And that is reality. The dollar will be worth a dollar. $10. That should be worth a dollar. We'll go to a dollar. And what does it? Bear markets.

Bare markets have the curtains come down. And that's why. we've studied bare markets twice as much as we've studied bull markets because if you can stay out of bare markets, well you're so far ahead of the game. We've done it again. And by the way, you can have bull markets but a bunch of bear market stocks and areas and that's why we talk to you about sectors, 200 sectors, a bunch of countries. I don't know if you know this today, but Brazil looks like it turned the corner the day to the upside.

By no accident, commodities had a better day. Why, Brazil is a commodity-based country. Does it mean it works? No. But we put odds in our favor of by the look of things. If you go look at EWZ, it's just a Brazil

exchange traded fund. You will see it looks like it turned up today. Any news? A weak dollar can be strong for commodities. Does it mean it has to really get going? No. But the engines fired today and we take notice. So stay tuned.

Very interesting market here. And if you look at the S&P 500, it's where it was 11 months ago. And that's following a tanking in the market. Yes, we're off the lows. No doubt about it. but big picture, it's where it was 11 months ago with a bunch of ebbs and flows. You had some tradable rallies and big drops.

The good news is you weigh off the lows. And when you hear people saying, oh, we're going to break the lows, you know what our answer to that is? Well, in order to break the bare market lows of October, you first got to go below 4,069, which was the low of this last week. Then you got to break 3808, which is the low of March 13th. Then, well, there's a little one 3764 from December of 22. And then you got a break from November 3rd, 22, 3698. Then we can talk about 3491, which, by the way, was a reversal low. So take out the reversal low, the closing low.

We'll call it 3568. No need to predict. Up next, news of the day. Whatever else today, I'm Gary. This is the one that only investors' edge. For many men, mental health challenges aren't recognized until they've already taken a toll. Work pressure, financial stress, changing relationships, and traditional expectations around masculinity can quietly wear men down.

Often without clear warning signs, in season three of the visibility gap, Dr. Guy Wynch and his guests explore how these pressures show up, how to spot them earlier, and how men can access meaningfully. support, listen to the new season of the visibility gap, a podcast presented by Cigna Health Care. No matter the occasion, snack time should be easy. That's why Skinny Popcorn keeps it light, airy and endlessly delicious. Skinny Pop is made from just three simple ingredients, delivering an irresistible taste without being complicated. Skinny Pop simplicity allows you to freely enjoy as much popcorn as you want. Just open the bag and enjoy. No overthinking, no tough choices. When it comes

to snacking, Skinny Pop just makes sense. Deliciously popped, perfectly salted. Skinny Pop, popular for a reason. By the time I hit my 50s, I'd learned a few things. Like how family is precious. Work can always wait. And 99% of people over 50 already have the virus that causes shingles. Not everyone at risk will develop it, but I did.

The painful, blistering rash disrupted my life for weeks. Don't learn about your shingles risk the hard way. Talk to your doctor or pharmacist today. Sponsored by GSK. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go.

Action! Investors Edge with Gary Culper. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. Thanks for being with us today. We just switched over to iPhone. So we may sound a little bit different. Hopefully we sound well. get a little feedback the other way. All right, in the news. And this will probably make half of

everybody mad, but we have no bias. You can't stand any of these people from top to bottom. So do you remember, and by the way, this all has everything to do with you and your money in the markets. These are the people running the country. They're insane. So if you remember the defund the police, what did we say about them? Morons, imbecile jackasses. if we were on satellite, we were probably had other words. But also we said, you know, what we should do with the defund the police? We should defund the police in their cities, the ones that were complaining about the police. And the interesting thing, the hypocrites that they were, they were hiring their own private security.

Actually, most of it went by the wayside. There's still a couple of idiots in D.C. that are still wanting to defund the police, but they've been ground out by the party, who knows it does not work for them. But I have to bring up the other side. Donald Trump wants to defund the FBI. No, really, because he thinks the FBI's mad at him, doesn't like him. Didn't like the people running the FBI. Well, let me give you a little background.

My first cousin used to work for the FBI. These are some of the greatest people in this country. And you know what they do for us, just like the police do? They defend us 24-7. Very often, they're risking their lives for us. But Donald Trump wants to defund him because, wah! So what do we think of Donald Trump? Well, if we think the others were Dufus' morons, imbeciles?

Well, if the shoe fits. Anyway, the fun part of this, Chuck Schumer, you know, one of the culprits in D.C., wants to bring resolution condemning President Trump for attacking law enforcement. even though Chuck Schumer never condemned any leftist for condemning the police. You get my point? You know my motto. They all suck. These are the people run the country, and Trump may be running the country again. Imagine maybe the next president again, Donald Trump wants to defund the FBI,

these great, magnificent people that all they do is defend us. This is what we're dealing with here. We may have Donald Trump against Joe Biden in 2015. It's like the pneumonia versus bubonic plague. Isn't there anybody else out there? Reagan needs to come back to life. Boy, I'm going to get some hate mail for that, but I don't care. Next, this really interested me.

And I'm a big believer. Corporations can do whatever the hell will they want to do as long as they're in the rule of law. And they may get the rewards of what they do and say, or they may get the blowback for what they do and say. Right? Isn't it live and let live? And the same goes for people. People should have their own opinion as long as they live in the rule law

and they're not inciting violence or harm or hurt, right? That's what the Republican Party used to be about, by the way. The Democrats, they say they're about that, but that's a lie. They, they, you say anything negative about, but, and they, They've gone completely insane. But I was interested in this story. Did you hear about Bud Light what just happened? So they did this transgender TikTok star,

uh, doing representing Bud Light. And wow. The reaction. Do you know in some areas of the country? sales of Bud Light dropped 30% over the last week while drought beer plummeted 50% in some bars and places off of this?

Unbelievable reactions. And I'm a culprit too. Remember when Kaepernick did his thing, I said I am not buying any more Nike. But I came back on radio a week later and said, wait a minute, I'm part of the problem. And my biggest thing, I didn't care about him kneeling. I cared about Kaepernick wearing socks, depicting police as pigs.

Anyway, unbelievable. So Bud Light, I guess they took down the video. But wow, look at the damage done. And I'm not taking a side on this. I'm just stating what happened. Let's see. One pub in Hell's Kitchen in New York City neighborhood

known for its large and vocal gay community reported that Bud Life draft sales dropped 58% this week while Bud Light drops bottle sales down 70%. Wow, huh? And I'm not even going to mention

know your customer, know your client and all that. It's just amazing reactions right now to certain things that are going on. That really interested me in this day and age. More now than ever, because of social media, the blazing quickness of how information flows and gets around. Wow. I thought that was a big wow.

Anheuser-Busch now, they were asked to comment and not commenting, and people are saying, one comment, sometimes you just want to drink a book. beer without getting a lecture on social or political commentary. That's what somebody had said. Interesting. I thought worth mentioning for every one of you that are in business, without telling you what to do or taken aside, you've really got to watch every darn thing you say and do these days.

Quite amazing story. I'm going to stay up on it and see if sales continue to stay down or it. passes away. We'll see. Anyway, it'll be an interesting next. There was a big flip-flop today in the market and earning soon. Going to get, I think, probably tougher going forward. You all have a great evening drive carefully. If you have any input on anything we talk about, email me at gharrykhae.com or gulpom and callbomb.com.

Make sure you hug your children. I promise you they will appreciate it. Have a great evening, everybody. back tomorrow same time. Take care. Thanks for joining. Bye-bye. This has been Investors' Edge with Gary Cultbaum on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryKK.com. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion,

our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.apus.edu. By the time I hit my 50s, I'd learned a few things, like how family is precious. Work can always wait. And 99% of people over 50 already have the virus that causes shingles. Not Everyone at risk will develop it, but I did. The painful, blistering rash disrupted my life for weeks. Don't learn about your shingles risk the hard way. Talk to your doctor or pharmacist today, sponsored by GSK.