Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Another Leg?

Episode Date: November 22, 2022

Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com

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Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for detail. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host.

A thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It's November 22nd. It's Tuesday. It's 2022. And again, we want to wish everybody a happy and healthy Thanksgiving. We have lots to cover. I don't know how I'm going to do it in the time allotted.

But first, if you do not get this show in your city, this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com. We'll also post it on our Twitter feed. You can follow me on Twitter. Just go to Twitter and put my name in or press the button at garyk.com. You can email me just be nice. Simple as that. We'll leave it at that. Okay.

Let's talk markets. around October 11th. And by the way, anybody we mention is not to indict them or put them down, but I do have to make comments that I do believe are appropriate. As you know, the only person we have mentioned in the last year during the bear market has been Kathy Wood of the ARC funds only because we've got a thousand questions on her funds all the way down. So I remember it well. October 11th was a Tuesday, I believe.

The head of J.P. Morgan, an icon of industry of the banking community, Jamie Diamond, who pretty much doesn't comment on the stock market. On that day, I guess he was being interviewed, said he expects at least another 20% moved down from there. And I came on the show and said to you, wait a minute, we just went from, on the S&P, from that last tie from 4325 to 3588 at the low. We just dropped like 17, 18% in two months. And we didn't make anything of it except to say, hmm, October 13th.

The anniversary of my bar mitzvah where, by the way, I know the first three or four lines of my haftower to this day. We had what is known as this gargantuan washout day. The S&P hit a low of 3491 and closed at 3669 that day. And we said to you, we think that puts in a good low of that leg down. And boy, was it a doozy. But you're never sure. nothing's 100%. You're dealing with maniacs at the Fed.

You're dealing with a Marxist at the White House. And by the way, I use the term Marxist, not as, you know, when people call people, I really believe. Marxism is about control freakism. He's a control freak. You know what he did today? He now went and extended again until June of next year on paying back student loans. It's been going on for years now. Anyway, I digress.

On October 21st, a Friday, we said to you, we think that's the confirmation of the low. What does that mean? It means that that low is not going to be revisited any time soon. That's all. Doesn't mean down the road. And we said it before during the bare market. And we rallied up and then rolled over eventually.

but off of that confirmation, nothing happened really except the Dow stocks. In fact, on November 4th, you were pretty much back to that confirmation day. That's not good. The NASDAQ 100 was below, but we never got to the lows. It was just a bunch of warts. and then came November 10th, a Thursday. Here's what simply happened. An inflation number came out better than expected.

A confirmation of the top in yields, the 10-year yield, was put in as well as the dollar. We had a monster day. Dow gapped up 900 points. NASDAQ about 580? That was a Thursday. We futzed around for a few days until last, let's call it Wednesday, we started pulling back. But as we've said to you in the last couple of days, we're holding that move. And that's actually good news.

But you need, what do you need? What do we tell you about markets? They're stair steps. You've got to interpret the stair steps. Are they going up or going down? And of course the Dow has been strong as an ox. Can't believe it. Dow doesn't usually lead, but it is right now.

So today, off of the quietness of the last few days, yet a strong day. Why? Oh, the dollar was down and yields came down again. We have not broken above the highs of the quietness of the last seven days. So let me first give you the big job. gigantic headline. A break above the recent highs.

And I'm talking S&P NASDAQ because they're the weaker stuff. A break above the recent highs and the high was made on November 15th. And there's another stair step up. I'll add in the semiconductors. A break above those highs. another market has another leg up going.

That's it. That's all. Everybody else will tell you, the Fed, the earnings, this, that, and the other thing. All we give a crap about is price. That's how you get paid. That's how you lose. Not opinion.

Not talk. Not yapping. Price. So we came in today. saying okay, resting after that strong move, some warts, I can show you a few names that act like crap, but the big picture of the indices were just made a right turn. Little pullback, strong day-to-day. And now let's see if we can get through.

Because if we get through, another leg up. And you know, we say this in spite. Let me tell you the in spite. The 10-year yield is at 3.758. The two-year is at 4.535. Now, why is that important? Because the 10-year yield is always supposed to be higher than the two-year. Why?

Because you're going out longer. You're taking more risk over time. No, it's the opposite. What do we know by history? When you have this inversion, it usually means we are going into recession, and typically a bad one. But wait a minute.

How can the market go higher? If we're going into a bad recession, isn't that bad? Watch the market. If price breaks above the highs, that's all you need to know. Everything else is noise. There may come a day where this inversion

becomes meaningful to the market. Right now it isn't. You don't get paid on the inversion. You don't lose money on the inversion. By the way, the inversion means the two-year yield is much higher than the 10-year. It should be the opposite. And history, again, always denotes that is recessionary talk by the bond market. Just watch price.

This is how we wanted to start the show. Just watch price. Good day today. A setup is there. A setup is there. Doesn't mean it's going to. And yes, we know. It's a shortened holiday week.

You shouldn't really pay that much attention. That's what they're telling us. You know what I say to that? Horse crap. Every minute the market opens counts as far as I'm concerned. And today, good day. Tomorrow we have these Fed minutes. We'll see what that brings.

Up next, lots more to cover. This is the one only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services,

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It doesn't get better than this. So, did we say we're going to break above the range in the last seven, eight days? No, we did not. We said the setup is there for that to happen. Now, we get these Fed minutes tomorrow. Listen, you know what I think of them? I think the only person I can't stand more? outside of Trump and Biden

is James Dolan who runs my knicks owns my knicks yeah my knicks like I own him we'll see what the market decides to do now you know what I want to do I want to spend a few minutes on tidbits every now and then we will do tidbits and they kind of sort of matter

I just want to let you know certain things and they just show up on my desk. You ready? Do you know in 2021 Facebook spent $45 billion on stock buybacks? Their average buyback was at $330 a share. It's $112 now. Without even looking, isn't that down 66%? Morons.

Global equity strategy. Goldman Sachs says bear market is not over. IBM's at a new yearly high. So is Caterpillar. I'll go on and on. Grindr, do you know what Grindr is? This occurred while I was in Europe. Grindr, I guess, was it an IPO or a SPAC?

It was a SPAC. What do we warn you about? Just so you know, Grindr is a dating app. and they merge with somebody. I'm not making this up. It went from $10 in a day to $71.5. Closed at 36.5.

It's back to 12. What do we tell you? Better keep your wits about you, kids. You better keep your wits about you. We mean it. Next, fertilizer. Just letting you know, fertilizer prices peaked in late March and a down almost 40% now. That's the lowest since September 2021.

Due to the fact there's a big correlation to food prices, that may help. Fertilizer, just want to let you know. Next, there are these leading economic indicators, they call the LEI. they are now in deep recession territory. Something called coincident indicators of just turning negative. Since this has ever occurred over the last 50 years, we have always gone into a pretty darn good recession. Just letting you know, we'll watch the markets.

Next, FTX, that piece of crap scumbag. They never had any board meetings. Many employees were fake. The Bahamas government had no choice but to hack them to get $600 million. Customer funds were used to buy real estate for the people who were on the joint. Advisors saying fraud is worse than Enron now. It's unbelievable. The parents of this schmuck stole $120 million to buy real estate.

There's a billion dollars in funds missing. $70 million was traced to political donations, all Democrats. Jail. Next. Home sales are now down 32% this year, making it the worst year for home sales since 2008. In October alone, home sales fell by 5.9% marking the ninth straight monthly decline. What I tell you, just about all the news sucks. All the news is bad.

How can the market go higher? Just watch the market. Somebody sent me this. Stocks are poaching another important top. Short sellers have been squeezed out. Key stocks are leading the downside. They are. Core models are on track to trigger cell signals soon. Watch the next one to two weeks. It was sent to me. How about this one? 2022 has been the year of taking profits at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.

Any of you know what that is? We're 61.8% in 25 S&P points, just letting you know. Next, the earnings picture continues to weaken with 75% of the companies in the S&P 500 seeing estimate downgrades. This should get worse and could get worse. I'm just telling you. Same person. If you peel back the layers of earnings look even weaker, excluding energy, the expected growth. I don't want to read that.

A U.S. home buyer now needs to earn a record $107,000 to afford the medium-priced home for sale, an increase of over 45% in the last 12 months. The S&P 500, 2020 versus 2008 analog charts suggest the end of this year isn't going to be very good in this rally is near its end. Just letting you know it's being sent to me. The last two times the 50 and 100 moving averages crossed down, we saw another 50% decline from that point. Everything that is being sent to me, the world is ending. And maybe it is. I'm just letting you know.

I'm just letting you know the market has been very quiet in the last week after a good move up. I'm just letting you know the technical improvement continued today. And I'm letting you know again if price gets taken out to the upside of the last six or seven days. Good. If price is taken out to the downside of the last six, seven days bad. Today went towards the good. Tomorrow we have these Fed idiots coming out. Maybe that changes the complexion.

But we have told you under no certain terms, you should be ignoring the Fed. Watch the 10-year yield and watch the dollar. They are in near-term downtrends now, and that's why the market is in a near-term uptrim, which with, by the way, unbelievable that things like IBM are at new yearly highs. Remember, IBM is technology.

You know what my technology screen looks like? The south end of a northbound jackass which calls into question the parking of money in the Dow. We'll see. We hate saying time will tell, but it will. I just had to read these things to you because this is what's being put out there. And I started with J.P. Morgan right at the lows saying we're down another 20%.

Here we go, another 20%. Up next. Oh, we got a bunch more. We ain't even close to done. This is the one all the investors edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change.

See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confuse. used relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears

are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show. You show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step

closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. We're listening to.

America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Coltbaum. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him.

Welcome once again to Investors Edge. Jeff Bezos just announced 40, grants totaling 123 million to combat homelessness. You know what the problem with that is? He's going to give it to the government who screw it up. Now if Jeff Bezos decided to do it himself, that'd be great news. Our government sucks on poverty and homelessness. They suck. Do you know our government since 2000, the year 2000, 22 years, By the way, I'm not making this up. Federally.

Forget state and local, which is part of helping out with poverty and homelessness. Our federal government, depending on which rusty abacus you use, spent 80 trillion bucks. Want me to repeat that? 80 trillion. You want to know what miserable failures look like? Every person that's walked through Washington, D.C. in both parties. miserable failures. What do I mean by that?

The most inefficient, ineffective business on earth throughout the history of time is our federal government. These slobbering corrupt thieves that live off the teat of lobbyists and campaign donations while sticking the middle finger out at all of us,

going for their re-election the minute after they're elected. 80 trillion federally. That includes since 2000 or debt, 25 trillion added debt since the year 2000. And yet during the campaigns, they smile it in, tell you what they're going to do for you. Yeah.

Yeah. As they become multi-zillionaires while in office. Not all of us. but a lot of them. And when they commit crimes that we would go to jail for, they get a slap on the hand. If at all, they think we're working for them.

They treat us like we're working for them instead of them working for us. And by the way, that's all of them. Don't be email me saying, oh, this person's different, that person's different. Every one of them. Trump, six trillion of debt in four years. and let's make it $5 trillion, take away some of that COVID. Yeah, Trump, I'm great with business, I will take care of the debt and deficits. Biden telling us he's cut to deficits in half, just blatantly lying to the American public.

Obama, psh, $9 trillion. Bush. Don't even get me started. So I'm hoping Jeff Bezos does not give that money. to the government and create something that creates something. The market wrap brought to you by Investment-Models.com. That's Jim Rohrabak, one of the great market timers. No gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market with his proprietary indicators.

Go check it out. Investment-dashmodels.com. 390. Now, let me state for the record. We're only talking about 1% in change today. But when you have tight trading, in the markets over a period of time. After a move up, 1% can be meaningful.

And then you go underneath the surface of that 1% and what do you see? Hey, I got a few things actually breaking out. Now they can screw it all tomorrow for all we know because you're still range bound after the close today. In the indices, certain names have been edging above. S&P up 53, NASDAQ 149, NASDAQ 100, 171, and the NASDAX were all lagging early,

but they finally, because they're going to catch up, but overall they are so much weaker than the Dow. It's not even funny. The semis woke up later in the day, up 81. Transport's only up 38, no biggie. I will tell you this, though. There were more new yearly lows than yearly highs on the NASDAQ and basically flat on the New York.

Vance the client's good on the New York, got better all day on the NASDAQ. Of note. And so told me something yesterday. OPEC still has influence. Do you know yesterday oil prices were tanking badly and oil stocks were getting crushed? OPEC made some announcement that was bullish for oil. Guess what oil prices turned? And you know what the oil stocks did?

Turn right around. Do you know yesterday, middle of the day, I'm thinking, which oil stock can I look to be shorting? And I didn't. And then OPEC yapped. And then I said, oh, I'm glad. So we're dealing with paper thin, news-driven. But remember, we care about the big picture.

October 13th, the washout low. October 21st, the confirmation. But things pretty much stunk after that confirmation, especially the NASDAQ types. then November 10th, the day we got that inflation number, we said to you on this show, I did the show from a lounge at Miami airport, and I said to you, I think the playing field has changed here. But then nothing for seven trading days, a little backing and filling. Today, we'll see if today gets a little bit of the confirmation of the confirmation.

We'll need to see price break above the last seven days to create what we call another stair step for the indices. Simple as that, right? This includes gold because if the dollar's coming down, gold's better. And pretty much a lot else. That's it. That's the story. Not all these things that are being sent to me about Fibonacci's, and recessions and depressions and all kinds of other stuff.

If price of the market breaks above the last seven days, notice the if, I did not say it will. If, good. And one could suggest that maybe something the idiots at the Fed Yap about tomorrow from the Fed minutes, which I don't know how that can be because they haven't shut up for the last couple of weeks. I think we pretty much know everything they're thinking, but who knows? You know, the market can react to anything at any time, any day.

But let me repeat, for the indices, if price breaks above, good. And guess what? We'll let you know. Small caps, not as strong as the rest. And they're pretty much lagging all day until. like the last hour. It's the big mega caps. Now, when I talk about the IBMs and stuff, don't know what's going on there, don't know why. Numbers not great. Maybe it's the parking into the big liquid stuff we'll see. Just remember, over the long term, if you ain't growing your

business, you ain't growing your stock. You got that? Those stocks will have a shelf life. We are going to be looking for the greatest, greatest, greatest growth companies in the world, in America, not the threes and fours and fives and sixes or the negatives. I think I've explained it right so far. I wasn't sure how it's going to explain. As you know, we don't script this thing, but you know what we have to do also. What else to not listen to? That's up next on the one and only investors' edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step

closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster.

The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card.

Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change.

See Capital One.com for details. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, Ready? Go. In the Chester's Edge. With Gary Culper.

Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. What up? Just so you know, in my fantasy football league, I have the second most points, but I'm in last place. You know, you play a certain team every week? I'm pretty much, just the schedule's killing me. Amazing.

Second best team in the league, and I'm in last place. Every week I'm playing just out of luck. I have no luck. You know who I played against this week? To lose? The guy had San Francisco, the running back and the tight end. They scored four touchdowns.

I lost one week because I played against Kansas City. Kelsey had four touchdowns in a week. I list goes on and on. I'm so depressed. How do you second best team in the league? In points. And you're in last place in the league. It's the schedule.

I'm depressed. So, you know, as I said, I have a group of people that I basically, that don't work for me. I don't work for them, but we commiserate and I get things sent to me and all back and forth. I'm always looking at stocks and markets and things like that. And I get something sent to me today about another person on TV that said, and I'm quoting here, Really strong retail sales earnings. Retail earnings. Because some retail companies reported earnings.

Ladies and gentlemen, you know when we say to you do your own homework? Don't trust even me. Don't trust anybody. Do your homework. How do you know? Just look at the crypto. So here's the great earnings that came from companies today. Abercrombie and Fitch was up 21% today.

21%. It's down 52% from the highs of November 5th, 2021, though. Their earnings were down 99%. It was a penny versus 86 cents. Revenues were down again for the second quarter in a row. Great earnings. Best Buy was up 12% today. All these stocks are way down from the highs.

Great earnings. They were down 34% year over year. Let me give you the last four quarters, best buy. Minus 22, minus 30, minus 48, minus 34. Revenues, minus 3, minus 9, minus 13, minus 11. Great earnings for the retail. Up Burlington. Look at this move today.

Up 20%. Burlington went to 1 8, almost 190 today. The old high was 357. Earnings down 68 percent, revenues down 11. By the way, the last three quarters of Burlington, minus 79, minus 82, minus 68. Great earnings. Dick's sporting goods was up 10 percent today. Last three quarters earnings minus 25, minus 28, minus 18, great earnings.

So whoever did this, I'm not going to name it, is five. full of crap or just doesn't do their homework and for whatever reason gets to be in front of you. Do your own homework. One would suggest he's just an idiot who did this, who said this. I saw another person, this one I saw, Disney's losing subs. Subscribers. Quote, that was more bull crap. Disney subscribership is up 39% year over year.

These are people that are telling you they're experts. You know, like, with COVID, you had some people come on and say, COVID was a flu for six months, and now they're still out there telling you they're experts. Do your homework. Bear markets bring out the fools. Actually, bull markets do it too. But in bull markets, everything's forgiven. Remember what we tell you.

As long as markets are going up, it's all that matters, right? So just letting you know, I, that stuck out for me today. I want to thank a couple of my friends who sent me this stuff, and I confirm it. Great earnings for retail companies that reported. The earnings sucked. Why were the stocks up? Markets improving. That's all.

Dollar down, yields down. Markets looking forward. We'll see if it continues. Just remember, we're very good at calling tops on these rallies. We have yet to call any top whatsoever. And if we break above those highs are the last seven days good. Again, not predicting it, but today went a decent way to getting there. And in case you don't know technical analysis when you were rallying,

and then you make a right turn and sit, but only pull back moderately. It tells you it just got petered out, but no real sellers are showing up overall. There's been some stocks that got hit and potentially leads to another leg up. Now, I will say this, the high beta growth that has been destroyed, half of them were down today. In fact, until the last hour, I'd say 75% of them were down. So I'm not so sure I'm inclusive of these names. You know which ones I've been talking about them forever. If they join into a certain extent, the better.

But man, oh man, their charts look awful. And obviously there's something going on there too. We'll find out eventually. And we've seen already a bunch of them have come out with really bad earnings. So good day. with all kinds of noise about the world ending. And that's actually good news. We don't mind everybody talking negative

that the market wants to go higher. In fact, we welcome it. That all said, you have a great evening and drive carefully. And when you get home, do like we do, it's quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Hug your children. They'll feel better.

You'll feel better. Hug your pets. It's as simple as that. And again, we will wish you a happy Thanksgiving to you and yours. Enjoy the holiday. We'll be back tomorrow. Tomorrow will be on with Charles Payne at 2 p.m. on Fox Business Network. Don't miss that. Bye-bye all. Take care. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com.

This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.