Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Another Miserable And Crazy Week In Review!

Episode Date: May 6, 2022

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Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for detail. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host day.

Thanks for being with us today. Glad you're here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening. What day is it? It's Friday? Oh, okay. It's the 6th. It's May.

It's 2022. And did you see? that Mets come back last night scored seven at the top of the ninth to win eight seven ah screw the markets the Mets I think they're 19

and nine what you don't want to talk sports okay so we hope you're having a good day we hope you have had a good week we hope you're going to have a great

weekend we are here to talk about serious stuff with a little comedy injected because at certain moments in time you got to inject some comedy right so if you do not get this radio show in your city we'll post it at gary k.com we'll also post it on our twitter feed you can follow us on twitter go to twitter put our name in or at garyk dot com press the button by the way as I told you I had many more Twitter followers and out of nowhere a bunch came down and now every day it's not a lot but I'm adding just out of nowhere 10 15 a day and some said to me I used to follow you and then all of a sudden I didn't follow you so leave no doubt Twitter was

screwing with people and obviously I'm on Fox News and Fox business you know who they're screwing with right? And they're rolling everything back the other way because, you know, the Antichrist is taken over. They're treating Elon Musk like he's the Antichrist. He caused the Chicago fire, the San Francisco earthquake, the bubonic plague, and everything and anything bad that's ever happened to this world, Elon Musk caused. That's how they're treating the poor guy. I love the fact.

He's just given him the middle finger. I love that. I love that. In fact, one of the things I always taught my kids, you're going to have your critics, the ones you respect, use, learn, and then you know what to do with the rest. And, you know, being on radio and TV,

you wouldn't believe some of the crap I get. The insane crap. And then I have people that completely disagree with me. and are respectful. And we can go back and forth in debate. How about that? What a concept. Disagreement respectfully.

Unfortunately, on both ends, there are maniacs that there's no respect out there. You know what I'm talking about, right? But I digress again. You know, the S&P this week was down two tenths of one percent. the action, though, was insane. When all is said and done, though, what has kept us in good stead,

and I want you to listen carefully because we're really, we only have a certain amount of time every day, and yesterday we walk you through what's happened since Christmas of 18 and how we got here. When it comes to the markets, there is the forest

there is the trees. The trees is that towards the close today, the Dow was down 400, and within minutes, it was green. No, really. I'm not making that up. It was green in minutes. Unreal, the trees.

The forest is the big picture. And that's when I come at you, say the only bullish areas in this market are this that and the other thing everything else and here's the language i use differing levels of bear markets and in some cases gargantuan bear markets so we'll give out the numbers today and what we'll do in the time allotted we will bust out for you bull and bear and levels differing levels your job work on it hope you do in your own scanning look where things have come from as we have explained to you many don't when we rallied up a thousand points on wednesday we had said to you just know that we just dropped 11% in eight trading days

on the NASDAQ. 7.7% in the S&P in eight trading days. You don't know you're going to rally a thousand points in a day. Usually it'll take a week. But that's the nature of the beast these days as markets move insanely. Did we have any idea yesterday? We'd give it all back. Hell no. I had no idea we'd give it all back.

In fact, from Wednesday, I'm thinking, you know, a lot of bearishness, big day, get upside, a little upside trading from here in a bare market. Nope, right back down. And then today, just all over the freaking map, culminating 400-point rally before finally settling down in the last. 10 minutes and finishing down, we'll go through those numbers. But that is meaningless. If you have been in high beta growth stocks for the last nine months, you are slaughtered. If you were in those funds from the arcs funds, you're slaughtered. If you're in energy, you're up. If you're in cash, you're sleeping at night. Catching the drift. By our estimates,

and my proprietary scanning each day of 1,500 to 2,000 of the important stocks in the market, not the 10 cent names. I got about 80% bearish, 10% bullish, 10% non-event, and when I say bullish, that means holding up as there are hardly any new yearly highs in the market. at the close of business today are you ready 1,823 new yearly lows on the New York and NASDAQ new highs I think I'm about 8 all of that speaks for itself and the damage in so many names

will say it again is akin to 2003 and that was a bloodbath as the NASDAQ dropped 80%. Why isn't the NASDAQ dropped 80%? Apple and a bunch of other big names, while so many others just destroyed. One of the names during the bull market that we would talk about, Shopify, 1762, down to 377.

it stuns us it absolutely stuns us PayPal's PayPal's PayPal 310 to 83 huh Netflix a stalwart

701 to 180 and as these were topping from the highs we were warning not knowing how far we always tell you

when things top, we don't know how long it lasts or how far it goes. We just know it's topped. And then it goes into a downtrend. We don't know how far it goes, how long it lasts. We just know it's now in the fine downtrend. And it just happens to be one for the ages. The move in some of these names, some, a lot of these names, is for the ages. And we can only hope you've been listening. Up next, full market wrap, movers of the day, news of the day, how about those Mets?

I'm Gary, this is the one only Investors Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kallbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show, Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services,

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The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio.

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You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. Thank you for being with us today.

I miss Steely Dan. Last I looked, the group's touring, but Walter Becker did pass away, so it's not really Steely Dan anymore. I got to see them, I think a year before COVID hit, front row twice, and they was as good as ever. And I must tell you, all my Genesis is done. That's it. No more touring. the Eagles Glenn Fry passed away Rolling Stones

Charlie Watts passed away the drummer All the rush How do I forget How do I not mention rush I've seen 16 times Neil Perk passed away And there's been rumblings that they may tour

But I don't see that happening If they do you know where I'll be for a couple of weeks So all our music favorite But we have Megan the Stallion now, right? Anyway, nothing against Megan the Stallion. She's coining it. God bless anybody who's successful at anything. I have a simple motto.

I never piss on prosperity as long as within the rule of law. I don't begrudge anybody's success. I love everybody's success. Let's go plain English here. let's go to the 10 year the yield on the 10 year bond has gone from 1.1% to 3.1%. A quarter million dollar more, this is by the way in about 10 months

a quarter million dollar mortgage you could have got for a 30 year mortgage about 1,050. It's now about 1,300,000. you're paying $300 more in interest. That's interest, by the way, that you do get to write off. But that's a much bigger nut. That does not include insurance and taxes.

With that, affordability has gone straight down into the basement, which means it's tougher to buy. real estate. So there's that nice little one-two punch of being able to qualify for mortgages versus what you could just 10 months ago. During that 10 months, housing stocks and anything housing related has cracked badly. I don't like using the word crash. Lenar is 33. of the highs of just November. D.R. Horton, 36%. Toll Brothers, 37%.

Whirlpool, 26%. Sherwin Williams. By the way, these are all names. Housing related. 23%. Floor and decor. 49%. Again, this is what we're. we call intermarket work, that's an issue going forward. Because as you know, what you've

been hearing is housing has been hot. You've been hearing there isn't any inventory. You've been hearing, don't worry, there's no bubbles. But the bubble was Jay Powell and the rigging, the manipulating of interest rates that forced up these things and made people pay more than they should. My own home that I sold went up 40% in three or four months. Somebody paid me 40% more than they would have paid five months before because of Jay Powell. I actually should be kissing his rear, but it's not going to last. That's a worry.

real world oil prices oil prices are at 110 at the close today 110 10 April of 2020 25 now to be sure that was at the bottom of COVID but before COVID hit it was 60 so still up

70% from before COVID every dime at the pump over a year period is 10 billion bucks out of the consumer not even including business this also does not include

all the products oil goes into so here you have the cost of housing up the cost to buy a house up the cost to get a mortgage up the cost of energy up the cost of anything that uses petroleum up and not just up markedly food have you checked that out if i was to guess a family who would use to spend 75 bucks are now spending a hundred you don't think they notice that?

You know when they report inflation numbers, they report two numbers. One with and one without food and energy. For me, makes absolutely no freaking sense. Only would our government report without food and energy that's so important to the world. The two most basically important things. That's going on. What else? Remember I mentioned interest rates?

Well, guess what? for borrowers that are looking to... I'll explain up next. That's the music. I'm Gary. This is the one-only investor's edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase,

bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Sprecker.

The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is, Sprinker makes the whole process simple.

You record your show, upload it once, and Sprinker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing. Even better, Sprinker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour,

you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card.

What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. You're listening to America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here.

He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. So we are not putting lipstick on a pig. We're doing real world here. Borrowers, corporations, large, media. small that want to fund expansion and borrow. They used to be able to borrow free money. Well,

with the rates, the 10 year going from 1-1 to 3. The one year has gone from nothing to 2%. The 30-year is 3-2. Still historically low, but not what they're used to. So now all these borrowing costs. not just mortgages which you borrow have gone up you get where we're going this is real-world stuff you had the opposite trajectory for quite a while we posed the question to you two years ago what happens when the central bank that has created the nonsense loses control of the levers and I believe we even said woe is us if they lose control of the bond market. We're only at 3%, a little bit above, and all hell is broken loose in the markets, really worrying us. And when I mean all hell is broke loose, the global bond market is down $8 trillion from its highs. That's real dollars. The global bond market. I mentioned just a few names for you. that were down 70%.

I can sit here for hours and tell you about Carvana. Down 87%. Uber, 52%. Lyft, 67%. Draft Kings, we warned you. 80%. You know what those losses are? Wealth.

evaporating, which takes us to the next part of the equation. By the way, we're not here to harsh your buzz. We're here to give you reality checked. The big reality check of what's with markets. Next part of the equation is the wealth effect. Trillions of dollars that were part of the positive wealth effect is in reverse. if you had a million dollars in a 401k and it was in one of these pretty growthy, great mutual funds, great mutual funds, great history, it may be 700,000 now. And you may not need that money for a very long time, but you as a human being and human nature are looking and saying, oh, my net worth is down $300,000. Last I looked, that's not a good feeling, right?

So the wealth effect is at hand. So just adding all these things up here, it is the unwind of what we warned you about, and that is ridiculous, unimaginable, unaccounted for amounts of printed money, conjured up out of thin air, which one screwed every saver in the country who wanted just a little bit money off their riskless income investments. You got zero percent on your money, money markets.

And two, bubbled up asset prices like we have never seen. To valuations we have never seen to see bubble bursts like we have never seen. We thought 2000 to 2003 could never be duplicated. this has beaten it on many fronts, whether it's D.D. Global, which is the Uber of China that's down 90% from the highs, it's bubble highs. Or Rivian, the last big IPO bubble that we yelled and screamed at you at,

down 84% since December. And rightfully so, to AMC theory. We warned you. Down 81% to GameStop. We warned you, 67%. Oh, and it's going lower. The wealth effect. Do you hear anything about the Robin Hood crowd anymore?

Where Robin Hood stock is down 88% from its highs. I don't hear anything. By the way, I expect them to be bought out one day. but for not much higher. And I wouldn't make that bet, though. So we just stated fact after fact after fact for you. And that's what's happening. Which takes us to the next fact.

Nobody is fighting to try and undo what's caused this. Because the people that caused it are the ones that are telling us they're going to cure it. but they're a bunch of liars. Besides being duffices, they're lying. One of the Fed heads today is named Neil Cash Carey. Nothing personal. Never met him. Probably a nice guy.

I'm sure he's a husband, a father. Nothing personal. Lied today. Said the Fed is not behind the fight on inflation. While staring us right in the face is a Fed with Fed funds rate at three quarters a percent, but real market yields are above 3%. He lied.

You know what his claim is? The fact that we're at 3% is because of the Fed. No, we're at 3% because the market's sticking the middle finger back at you doofuses that cause this and still do nothing about it. He would have a big trouble if I ever debated him in front of an audience. And amazingly, the S&P was only down 2.10. of a percent this week, but a very nauseating week. And listen carefully.

1,823 new yearly lows on the New York and NASDAQ. That's a lot. New highs less than 10. And they're all, I think, energy, that's about it. Maybe I saw a food stock here and there. We have no clue what happens next week. Maybe we bounce, maybe we don't. All we can tell you is that these facts we just mentioned

will continue to weigh on this market for logical reasons. The cost of everything is up for corporate America. By the way, wages, people are making more money. Wages are up. Guess who pays that? Corporations, that's a cost. the productivity numbers that came out way down just what you don't want to see

so we'll stay on the job for you work our tail off for you because it's for us by the way the food stock at New Yearly Hise's Post I hear they have good cereal but the fundamentals costs going up cost the capital going up, wealth effect going down.

That is one hell of a trifecta. And you already knew that because you're feeling it. Up next, we'll wind up the week. And whatever else, I'm Gary. This is the one and only investors edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium. benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect.

Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.

This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as, as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing. Even better, Sprinker helps you monetize your show.

with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.

The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go.

Action! And welcome once again to Investor's Edge. I have absolutely no clue what happens next week. Maybe the fact we're only down two-tenths of 1% this week with wild swings after a drop. Maybe that's trying to wash things out. I don't know. Yields are overbought. Bonds are oversold.

Maybe. Who knows? All I know main trends, notwithstanding, when we say to you, we think maybe A-Lo is in for now, the main trend has not changed. and we're not so sure it's going to happen soon, but we're open to anything. But I repeat, costs of everything throughout the food chain going up, wealth effect going down.

That's a hell of a one-two punch. And then add in duffuses, and I say this with no joy, doofuses, and liars. are running the show. They think you're stupid. President Biden comes out and tells us he lowered the deficit in the last year.

Look at me. The only reason the deficit's down came out of COVID and you stop spending oodles of money. Who are you trying a kid? You know who he's trying a kid? People because he thinks you're stupid and he thinks you're not watching. He would beat the crap out of me. If I got to ask him one question, President Biden, you've been in D.C. since 73. You have voted on 29.5 of a 30 trillion of debt and have never stood tall to do anything about that.

Why should we believe anything you say about debt or deficits? I think he kicked me in the grapefruits. I don't see anybody asking that simple question. We're logical here. All right, today's market wrap brought to you by Investment-Dashmodels.com. That's Jim Rohraback, one of the great market timers. No gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market with his proprietary indicators. Go check it out.

Investment-dashmodels.com. The Dow was down 98 today. But let me repeat. At 326, it was down 420. 14 minutes later, it was only down 80. 10 minutes later it was up, finished down 98, drop down afterwards. S&P down 23, but the NASDAQ was down 173, NASDAQ 100, 157, that includes Apple being up. So not great news there.

Sox was down 23, transports 183, and here's the news that's not great. 1194 stocks were up on the New York today, 2,9602 down. on the NASDAQ, 1,0002 up, 3388 down. As I mentioned, hardly any new highs except post-Cereal and a few oils. 1,823 new yearly lows. And we're just talking New York and NASDAQ. So the internals, the underneath the surface, regardless that they jacked up the Dow, not very good.

And I've yet to scan for this weekend. pretty sure I know what I'm going to find. The worries remain. Man, if they can take 22% of the NASDAQ down 75%, and 50% of them down 50%, and knowing the only reason the NASDAQ is not worse, and I think the NASDAQ is probably 24%, and that's because Apple is only down this amount,

something else only down this amount, is it a reach to think that the indices are going to play catch-up? and we think that's what's been going on here as of recent. And if this is the bursting of the bubble, and we've been calling it a bubble for two and a half years, then I do believe they're going to get the indices much more. They busted every bubble, everything. By the way, the NFTs they're going to get,

the coins they have got, the secondary coin things, you know, the ones like Coinbase and Microstrategories, they got. A ton of the coins are at zero. They got. The marijuana stocks that they touted you to buy because they're legalizing marijuana. They got.

They're down like 80, 90%. The hunks of junk, the SPACs, the ridiculously price IPOs. The Chinese ADRs, the electric vehicles that'll never sell electric vehicle. The battery companies. The biotechs with no sales. They got. The ridiculously priced money losing growth companies, they got. Remember, one of the mantras in bare markets, anything that lose money is going to get destroyed.

They got. I think the S&P may only be down 15, 16% from the highs. That will not be enough. It's not down 20, I can tell you that. Looks about 16 to 17. So stay tuned. will keep you as best a little step ahead or in lockstep. But if this worsens, we can't tell you what to do.

We just tell you what we think. And the market's been yelling and screaming. And all one has to do is drive past any gas station. That's all you have to do. and then go backwards to where things were just a year ago. Real world stuff, ladies and gentlemen. The real world. Have a great weekend. Drive carefully.

I will be on Fox News tomorrow between 10 and noon with Neil Cavuto. Don't miss it. And until Monday, have a great weekend, drive carefully. And when you get home, do like we do. Quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better.

You will feel better. and thanks for joining. Hope we're helping. Peace out all. Take care. Bye, bye. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com.

That's GaryK.com. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit, for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card.

What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.