Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Another tariff pause [05.27.2025]
Episode Date: May 27, 2025https://garykaltbaum.com/...
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Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios,
here is Gary Coltbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host. A thanks
for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening.
It is Tuesday, May 27, 2025. Hope you are having a good day. Hope you had a good three-day weekend.
I was up in the Northeast. I was going to do the show on Friday, and I had like a little
see about 15 minutes before I was going to go on the show.
So I want to thank Adam for doing the show on Friday.
But we are here.
We're back.
We're in Florida.
It's 90 degrees.
Hung out with the dad and the grandson while was up there.
Father, I got it.
Just so you know the story, when he was in the hospital, the rabbi came in, the doctor came in and gave me this look.
my father wasn't responsive. He had pneumonia. He had fluid on the lungs. And I'm thinking like, this is my goodbye. And the night passed. And the next morning, amazing to them, the pneumonia went by-bye. The fluid on his lungs left. And all of a sudden he's up and he's got his, you know, brains.
working well and all that crap and since he's home a weak is all hell he's going to be 94
needs help walking doing everything and we have uh around the clock help but uh wow huh that's the
story of excuse me uh the dad and he's doing good and uh
that's that while I was gone on Friday more tariff news and then over the weekend more tariff
news and I must tell you that I hate talking about tariffs because they matter so much
here's why do you remember that pause you know what day that was right it was April 9th
it was really April 7th on a Monday but they didn't like that it got leaked
out so they said no we're not doing it and they waited to Wednesday and we got to pause on all
those tariffs they were going to do you remember on that Wednesday the week before in the Rose Garden
he puts out a post of the president tariffing everybody which means tax the hell out of all of us
so I would just want to make a point that if the president and and look this is what we're dealing with
We don't pull punches here.
We mean business.
If the president decided tonight to put those tariffs back on,
the ones that he paused on,
if he decided to go backwards on China
and did the whole McGillard,
the Dow that closed at 42-3,
I think would open up at 38,000 tomorrow.
No, I'm not kidding.
And that's what we're working under right now.
And how do we know we're working under that right now still?
So last week, the market had a normal pullback.
We had gone up nicely, pulled back for a couple of days,
but then we're hearing the rumblings.
We're hearing the rumblings about the European Union and tariffs.
What? Huh? And the president put on 50% tariffs on the European Union to start June 1st.
So last week, the Dow that hit 42842 on Monday hit 41354 on Friday.
$1,500 points.
And may I quote the president when he said,
we do not have any interest in any deal.
June 1st, let me get my dates right,
50% tariff on everything that comes in from the European Union.
Over the weekend, the president said,
well, everything looks a little bit better right now
and this, that, and the other thing.
and we're not going to do the 50% on June 1st.
We're going to push it off to July 9th.
That's that 90-day pause window.
So today, the Dow gets back 740 points
to close at 42-343.
Still 500 points off of the high of last Monday.
But this is why we bring it up.
We are still at the mercy of the President of the United States and his whims on tariffs.
Just let you know.
And let me repeat, not only tariffs, but exemptions.
In case you do not know, he gave Apple a big exemption,
but all of a sudden he's now pissed off at Apple for whatever reason.
it's Monday
so what if the president
decides to
get rid of the exemption
on Apple
Apple stock
will get trashed and other
technology stocks will go along with it
now where I
stand
at this juncture
I believe this is tax policy
and I believe
that the court
should stop the president
from all this.
It's ridiculous.
It's insanity at this point.
145% tariffs.
100%, 50%, 25%,
25%, that product, this product,
that country, that country,
this is sheer insanity.
The good news, what we do know is
the president watches every tick
in the stock market.
and leave no doubt
and excuse the way
I put the verbiage
on this
whips out
on his tough talk
every time
every big tariff
has been taken off
and there's still no
just so you know
there have been no trade deals
you had one with the
you sat down with the UK
they're going to buy some Boeing planes
but that's not a trade deal
there's nothing with the European Union
there's nothing
with China as of yet.
And he said until we have trade deals, but that's obviously not true.
But I just wanted to start the show with still, unfortunately, a lot about the tariffs.
And let's hope that the market is bigger than his thought process.
And what I mean by that is he's got to know by now he'll crash the markets if he goes back the other way.
If he doesn't, then he's an idiot.
And I don't think the guy's an idiot.
In fact, he's got the greatest golf courses, too.
So, we love about half the things he has done.
We loathe the other half.
I don't think there's really any in-between on things that the president does, I must tell you.
But I do believe what he's done at the border overrides a lot of what I don't like.
He's saving lives at the border.
He's saving lives by shutting down the border.
No doubt.
Anyway, just wanted to start with that because we had a very good day off this pullback.
And I must tell you, I wasn't surprised that we bounced.
I'm very surprised about how strong it was.
But then again, the tariffs.
They're so darn meaningful.
I don't even know where to start how meaningful they are.
Especially when you're like 50%, 100%,
you may not know this, but that's insanity.
It's crazy.
It's nuts.
And I loat the Republican Party for not taking them on.
They're a bunch of wimps.
They're so afraid of him.
Nobody even wants to say, well, you're wrong.
That's why I handed to Rand Paul and a couple others for taking them on.
So that's basically the story, very good day today.
And I'll tell you where it was a very good day also.
Very good day in what I call the beta and technology.
That type of stuff.
And let's hope it continues.
because more and more names are setting up
and the more and more and more names that's set up,
the better.
More and more names are coming up the right side,
the better.
Up next, we shall continue.
I got to introduce myself.
This is the one only Investor's Edge.
Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum,
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Hi, I'm Dr. Jay Goodman, host of Beyond the Script.
the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter.
In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CBS pharmacist Victoria Motola,
who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal.
A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches.
Like I get a stomach ache every time that I eat.
And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you're just.
you know, I just, I have a stomach kick every day.
Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy.
And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with.
So that's when we deep dive.
We deep dive into your medication.
We deep dive into your OTC medication.
And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change.
Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script,
a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeartRadio.
Listen now wherever you get your podcasts.
Here's a quick podcast for all you true crime fans.
The case of the missing Reese's.
It was me at the store with my mouth.
Motive?
Um, they're reases.
What was that going to do?
Stop myself.
Tune in next time to see if I do it again.
Spoiler, I will.
Wow.
That had everything.
Reeses, suspense, reeses.
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lender approval. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working.
You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality
programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. Okay. This is Investors Edge.
Serious talk on everything that affects you, the markets, the economy. Your job,
your industry and everything else that moves things around. We interspers, notice the big word,
politics and the markets and the economy. We used to only do markets, but we had to introduce
politics into the fray. Why? 37 trillion of debt. Of course, they're killing us long term.
You know that. We're finding out massive, massive corruption, massive corruption by the
people that tell you how much they care about you. You know how much they care about you.
They have you in their mind. They want to do well for you. Yes, sure enough. Right? Right. Right.
Other things. The Republican bill, here's the good news. The big beautiful bill.
is too big
is not beautiful
it's another
nonsensical
raise more debt
lies by the Republican Party
thankfully some people in the Senate are taking it on
and I'm a big believer that a lot of it's going to get changed
that's what we want to see
we want spending cut
no, no, no.
When we say spending cut is not knocking out or lowering the rate of going higher.
In other words, we're not interested in 10% increase and then cutting 2%.
We're interested in cutting.
Makes sense.
And the con artists in the Republican Party from the top down are lying to you about the bill and what it does.
their only answer is, well, growth will take care of everything.
Well, they don't know that.
That's number one.
Number two, they've told us that for 20 years, and growth has not taken care of everything.
They are full of crap.
So we are taking them on, and we're not mince in words.
In politics, you have a certain amount of time of what we call opportunity.
there is a great opportunity for these people to be heroes for the taxpayer.
Heroes for the taxpayer.
And what that means is don't grow the spending.
Pretty simple, huh?
Don't grow the spending.
Instead, they are growing the spending.
And we are tired of it.
big time tired of it we love the permanency of the tax cuts though i would have made a 28% not
37% at the high end i'm a reagan guy i think 28% is a good number why at 37% you live in a bad
state you're working into the month of july before you make your first freaking dollar
want to know what we mean over the last 10 years the U.S. federal government revenue that we have sent to them
has increased 60 percent to $5 trillion, but government spending has increased 95 percent to $7 trillion.
It's them.
You got that?
So that bill, let's hope we get rid of it.
Let's hope they cut it down to the bone.
And let me go one further.
New York Times op-ed from a guy named Peter Orszag.
I believe he is now chief executive and chairman of Lazard, a very good firm.
He was the head of the Office of Management and Budget for Obama.
He puts an op-ed, I would.
was Obama's budget director, it is time to worry about the national debt. Here's what I say to
Peter Orzag. Up yours, pal. What did you do in your time of OMB with Obama? You spent us into
oblivion. I loathe these people, the grapefruits of this guy to put out an op-ed. It's time to worry
about the national debt when he never gave a damn about it when they were in power.
ass clown
unbelievable the nerve of them
and it's time to worry about the national debt now
go look at Obama and what his debt was for four years
every year boom boom boom
then again though he's a piker compared to Biden
and he's a piker now compared to Trump
Trump if this bill goes through
will run more debt on a yearly basis
than Biden
yet the republicans blasted
Biden for his debt and spending
want you to remember all this
remember
we have no agenda
ulterior motive of a bias and we definitely
have no bias
back on the markets
if the QQQQB breaks above
523 if the
SP which is the NASDAQ 100
if the SPY breaks above 595.54
we're going to head to the old
ties, which is amazing considering. We were in trouble with the market because of tariffs.
Then Trump crashed the markets because of his super tariffs. Then Trump bought in the markets with
the pause of the tariffs. And then Trump got it really going with the big pause on China.
Then we dropped back down off of the European Union. And now he's backed away from that
overnight and we get a bunch back today of what we lost last week.
So we are tariff-centric when it comes to the market right now.
I'm crossing my fingers as I speak to you in hopes.
He don't go backwards.
If anybody listening knows him well, speak to him.
And I actually blame myself.
I should have gotten my arse in there tomorrow.
got into conversation with him.
I think I could have convinced him.
No, really, I think I could have convinced them.
And that is that.
If the QQQ and the SPY, take those out.
Let me go one further.
The big banks, they got hit last week.
Goldman right back up 17 bucks today.
Not even 3%, but a big 3%.
JP Morgan, almost 2%.
If they go top side,
You know what we think.
Up next, do we think they're going to go top side?
We'll answer that and much more.
I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge.
Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the script,
the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't
even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter.
In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist, Victoria Motola,
who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal.
A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches.
Like I get a stomach ache every time that I eat.
And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just, I have a stomach
ache every day.
Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy.
And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with.
So that's when we deep dive.
We deep dive into your medication, we deep dive into your OTC medication,
and then at that point we can probably identify something that we can change.
Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script,
a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeart Radio.
Listen now wherever you get your podcasts.
Here's a quick podcast for all you true crime fans.
The Case of the Missing Rees.
It was me at the store with my mouth.
Motive?
Um, they're rees.
What was I going to do?
Stop myself.
Tune in next time to see if I do it again.
Spoiler, I will.
Wow, that had everything.
Reeses, suspense, reeses.
Cashflow crunch.
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We're listening to.
America is talking.
Investors Edge.
He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just.
Just on his feet here.
He's a Cinderella boy.
With Gary Colbomb.
It comes highly recommended.
You're going to feel better if you talk to him.
Let me give you some other good news today.
Good news.
Good news, Gary.
The 10-year yield dropped.
$4.75 down to 4.434.
On Thursday, it hit a high of 4.629.
That is really good news if it continues.
you got that it is really good news if that continues under no uncertain terms if
yields come down now that would be very good news I get asked a lot how are they
going down when debt keeps going up well we are the United States of America and
they're still taunting the world and hopefully I will not I will be gone when
this all blows up because it will
Leave no doubt.
Debt does that.
And just remember how this happened.
Remember how this happened.
They got to $10 billion in debt,
and they said,
The World Didn't End, let's go 12.
At 12, the world didn't end, let's go 15.
At 15, the world didn't end.
Let's go 18.
At 18, the world didn't end.
Let's go 21.
And so on and so forth.
and you know what Biden said,
screw it.
I'm just going to supersize this crap.
Then again, we're not so short was Biden.
I don't know if you've been reading all this crap.
All of a sudden, the media has seen God.
Yeah, you know, we weren't sure,
but we're all watching the guy.
Can't even put four sentences together.
God only knows who was at the helm.
We're never going to know, I guess.
gather. Back on the bill. The bill raises the child tax credit to $2,500 from $2,000, no biggie. The bill
raises the state and local tax deduction to $40,000 for people making $500,000 or less. It was $10,000.
Those are people that get to write off local and state taxes. The bill achieves no tax on
Social Security by increasing deductions for seniors. I might have to double check that out. The bill eliminates taxes on
Tips and overtime. I'm very worried about that. You know, why, right? Why wouldn't a restaurant
at this point pay everybody a very small salary, much smaller, and everything else tips?
All of a sudden, people aren't paying taxes. And when people aren't paying taxes on their
income, who does that hit? It hits all of us. Now, I like it for firemen and policemen and
women, not so sure on everybody else. The bill starts Medicaid work requirements beginning
in December of 26. I like that. Auto loan interest tax deductible, but I believe it has to be
made in the United States. Of course, the bill raises the debt ceiling by $4 trillion, but who's
counting? I think that's about all I need to cover. I think that's all I need to cover.
the bill sucks
the gary colpom bill would not increase debt by one dime
by one dime
ladies and gentlemen
by the way i'm just looking again at this budget director guy peter orzag
i was obama's budget director it's time to worry about national debt
do you even think this guy looks in the mirror and says what a schmuck i am for writing this
op-ed when i was there with obama for how many years as budget
director watched Obama's supersized debt at that point in time.
But now all of a sudden I'm going to write an op-ed.
And he didn't, and interesting, he's a dem, he didn't write this op-ed during Biden.
These people are such scum.
And by the way, I'd say it to their face.
You do know that, right?
They're scum.
God, it irritates the hell out of me.
It really is.
It really does.
Semiconductors.
lit up like a pinball machine today.
Let me give you a little number on that.
The SMH, if it breaks above, 249,44.
But, and video reports after the close tomorrow.
I've been asked 100 times today what I think,
and I answered every time, I don't know.
One person actually got mad at me for saying, I don't know.
Got mad.
I got an email from somebody that said, I'm an ass.
Can't even answer the question.
I emailed back, do you want me to lie?
I don't know what they say and what they do.
I do know the numbers will be good year over year,
but for all I know, they're going to miss by a penny or beat by 50 cents.
So let me tell you what I think the good is and the bad is.
We'll start with the bad.
The bad is it's been getting overhyped again.
the bad is it already has a $3.3 trillion market cap and one has to ask how much more can that go.
And that is a very valid statement.
The good.
It's been AI and chips.
There's been a lot of noise and a lot of news about chips and Viti and all that crap going forward.
I mean, recently that's number one.
And let me tell you the other part.
done nothing in almost a year the stock is trading today where it traded on June 18th of 24
and is still five points down of June 21st of 24 and is still 11% and is still 11% lower
than the highs all-time highs in January so almost 12
months of no gains with good growth.
So maybe all that time
sets the stage
for another move.
So there's a little bit of good,
little bit of bad, we'll know tomorrow after the close.
What you do need to know is the CEO will never, ever,
ever, ever, ever say anything bad.
He's the most positive talker I have seen in many a moon.
and that is not a rib on the guy.
I'm not putting them down,
but that is a fact.
Do I have a prediction?
I do not.
We'll see how it goes.
Do I own the stock?
I do not.
I don't want to own a stock that hasn't done anything in 11 months.
And luckily, for the bulls that have held on,
that thing during the crash drop down to 86 bucks.
Close that day, by the way, crash day near 100.
That's how crazy things have been.
And of course it will have influence.
What else happened today?
Very nice move on a broad-based basis.
Very good move.
I'm looking at my screens right now.
Economically sensitive stocks had a very strong day.
And you know what I think Caterpillar United Rentals?
The financials had a very strong day.
The semiconductors are very strong day.
The restaurant stocks.
A very strong day.
Texas Roadhouse, Wingstops, Shake Shack.
Brinker International, Darden restaurants breaks out to new yearly highs.
Interesting.
What brought that on?
I have no clue.
The consumer confidence number came out, but I don't listen to that or even think about that.
That's a moving target and it includes markets and markets been better.
Even oils bounced today.
Retail had a good day also.
So very good to see.
I don't have a complaint.
Ten-year yield was down neatly and nicely, and let's hope it continues.
And more importantly, let's hope the president does not announce any more tariffs.
It's unnerving.
And I've gotten more than one email from people that voted from that are very pissed off over all the changes.
Hey, tomorrow is another day, ladies and gentlemen.
but that'll be the story this week
and I do believe
rest of the week
Nvidia
Salesforce.com
that's in the Dow also
how about Costco
Dell Computer
The Gap
Burlington
Best Buy
so you got a few
important names coming at you
this week
but also tonight very important
the Knicks play game four
I went to game two in Madison Square Garden.
They lost the game.
It wasn't my fault.
And I must say the pretzels at Madison Square Garden are not very good, but had a blast.
Up next, this, that, and the other thing, and whatever else.
This is the one only investor's edge.
Hi, I'm Dr. Jay Goodman, host of Beyond the Script.
The podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask.
at the pharmacy counter.
In this episode, we are diving into gut health
with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola,
who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues
we should not accept as normal.
A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating,
chronic stomach aches.
Like I get a stomachache every time that I eat
and it just becomes like a lifestyle where,
oh yeah, you know, I just have a stomachache every day.
Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy.
And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with.
So that's when we deep dive.
We deep dive into your medication.
We deep dive into your OTC medication.
And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change.
Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeartRadio.
Listen now wherever you get your podcasts.
Reese's peanut butter cups.
They go perfectly with music.
Podcasts.
And welcome back to the show.
Even nature sounds.
Oh, and the thing where someone crinkles tissue and whispers at you.
Hello.
Look, I'm not here to judge what you listen to.
I'm here to judge you for not eating Reese's while you listen to it.
Rees.
Ashley, go back to the nature sounds.
Nice.
Yeah, that's really nice.
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You're listening to...
What are we waiting for?
Well, what are you waiting for?
One, two, ready, go.
Inverster's Edge with Gary Culper.
And welcome once again to Investor's Edge.
In the news, Americans spent over $113 billion on lottery tickets last year, more than they spent on movies, books, concerts, and sports tickets.
I would have thought actually would have been more.
$113 billion.
I just want you to remember a couple things, all my peeps.
The greatest con and the greatest scam comes from our government,
and that is the lottery.
It's a scam.
Think about this.
It's a business.
Let's use scratch-offs.
Let's use one scratch-off.
It is a business where they know they're going to sell a certain amount of scratch-offs and pay out a certain amount, guaranteeing them this amount of money they're going to make.
The winners get paid by the losers, not by any entity, and that's it.
Think about that.
You have a business that has no risk on their end and only risk on our end.
the taxpayers, the American public, while the government collects all this money.
And they're very good at marketing.
Florida used to have a marketing, an ad on TV, you never know.
But of course, you do know.
Go look at the odds.
And by the way, I think Megamillions just went to $5 a ticket.
Five bucks for a ticket.
Powerball's $2.
Both used to be a dollar for a ticket.
ticket. I just want you to remember this because I must tell you, I'll be the first to tell you when
the numbers get really big, I'll buy a few tickets. But it's like 280 million to one. I read somewhere
you can get hit by lightning twice, two days in a row at the same time, same place, and have better
odds of that than you winning the lottery. Just want you to remember that. They've got you by the
you know what's.
and they know that when they put up in big numbers, 200 million.
By the way, it's not.
It's present value minus taxes.
So it's 200 present values usually like 50, 60 percent minus taxes.
You end up with about 40, 35 percent of the whole thing.
You have to think about it.
The government gets you on losing your, you know what, on the lottery,
and then they tax you if you ever do win.
Don't you love that?
Anyway, we just want you to remember these things, especially if you can't afford it.
That's all.
And you know where they get you also?
Because there are definitely winners.
And what do they do?
They highlight the winners.
The one or two people that win big out of the bazillion people that lost.
So just remember that.
Just another little boondoggle from our wonderful government.
And who the hell knows where all that money goes.
Next on the news, the penny. The U.S. Treasury is given final decisions on pennies, and they're saying it creates a new problem. What they're going to do, they're trying to kill the penny. They'll stop minting new pennies and putting them into circulation by early next year. The problem is now businesses are going to have to round up or round down their prices to the nearest five cents. That's number one. And number two is, boy, this is going to make the nickel popular.
you lose more on a nickel than on a penny.
The nickels lost 18 million from their production last year also.
So both the pennies and nickels are not doing.
By the way, I think there's other places around the globe that got rid of their pennies.
I read that somewhere.
I don't remember who.
What have you?
The pennies gone by-bye for how long I don't know.
That was in the news.
And in the news, and I applaud.
the president. So don't say I'm one of these TDS guys. Every time I say critique the president, I get this Trump der agent syndrome. People ignore all the great things I say about him. I love that he's given that certain finger to places like Harvard and the rest. Without pulling punches, these colleges are Jew haters. They hate the Jews. And I'm finding it's been going on forever. And they prove it time and time again.
You had the presidents of these Ivy League schools up on Capitol Hill saying,
it depends on context.
Anyway, really thrilled with him holding them to the fire to the point where Harvard is suing the president, the administration, in court.
Good.
Let him sue.
These places are supposed to teach, not hate.
These places are supposed to do the right thing.
Not allow a bunch of scumbags to call death to Jews on campus.
And professors doing the same, being a part of it.
So good on the president.
In the news, I think the president has found out who Putin is.
We've been telling you that all long.
We've been telling you that Putin's been playing Trump for, you know, whatever.
And it would be anybody else, too.
It's not putting down Trump.
It's just this guy is nothing but a murdering, communist, authoritarian, whatever you want to call him.
And he ain't going anywhere.
He wants all the Ukraine.
And he ain't going to stop.
And he may talk nice, nice and do a big smile, but he's a murderer.
So the president get better realized that and stop making nice, nice.
I think this has got a long way to go, unfortunately, which means more death and more destruction.
And we hate seeing that.
In the news.
And last but not least in the news is the one question I get asked a ton of right now is the crypto.
Because the president's getting involved.
All I can tell you is that Bitcoin is acting well.
It just broke to new highs.
Others not so great.
Do not forget that 32,000 coins are at zero.
And we'll keep you on top of the situation as it keeps going.
You have a great evening drive carefully.
When you get home, do like we do quite simple.
Make sure you hug your family.
Make sure you hug your children.
and they will feel better, you'll feel better.
I promise they will, be well.
Thanks for joining us.
Peace out all.
Good night.
This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk.
To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary,
go to GaryK.com.
That's GaryK.com.
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