Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Another wild week in review! [05.02.2025]

Episode Date: May 2, 2025

https://garykaltbaum.com/Friday’s big 5! By Gary Kaltbaum May 2, 2025 More supposed easing of China tensions…market ramps.Cause and effect. Big tariffs, market down. Get rid of tariffs, market up.The worst areas broke back above the very important 50 day moving average. Needs to stick.Some darn good earnings reactions.Hopefully, they learned a big lesson.

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That's Tommyjohn.com, code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host. A thanks for being with us today.

Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening. It is Friday. It's May 2nd. It's 2025. Hope you having a good day. Whatever you have planned for the weekend. Hope you have a great weekend.

I had a great evening last night because of Jalen Brudson of the New York Knicks who has ice in his veins. And they move on against the Boston Celtics. And boy, that's going to be a tough out for my New York Knicks. But hey, they move on. This is serious talk. And we're going to take a serious tone today. We do that mostly every day, but some days more than others. We're going to take a serious tone today.

we're going to start out first with the market has got back the crash that two-day crash the market's got that back as of today we're going to do that and then we're going to do a little bit of how the hell did we get here i'll explain and again we're serious talk on everything that affects you the markets the economy your job your industry the tariffs, the debt and the deficits and everything else that matters. And if you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com. We'll also post it on our Twitter feed, which is now X. And if you don't follow us on X, you should.

And if you like to email me, just be nice. So ladies and gentlemen, it doesn't matter to me if it was President Trump right now, President Kaltbaum right now, President Reagan or Bush or Clinton or Sleepy Joe And boy oh boy was he asleep What you need to know is simply The tariffs crashed the market On a Thursday and Friday

On that Monday In the White House they obviously made the decision by saying to themselves, holy crap. And of course, they didn't use the crap word. They used the other word. On that Monday, they were rolling back those tariffs, you know, the ones where he came out on that Wednesday and tariff the hell out of everybody. What happened on that Monday was the news leaked. The Dow rallied over 2,000 points before you can turn on the price is right.

Just afterwards, they came out and said, the rumor is not true. The market dropped that 2,000 points in the same period of time. But the rumor was true. it was definitively true, but they did not like the fact that it got leaked. So they pulled back. On that Wednesday, it was proven that the Monday leak was true as they put on the pause of those tariffs. And the market rallied up 2,000 points. And then we had this announcement.

and that announcement and this announcement and that announcement and this announcement and that announcement, culminating with the president and don't argue with me on this because it's factual, caving on China. China was not budging. So they leaked to the media that the administration, is reaching out to China and since the market has got back the whole crash. We're back and a couple of indices are a little bit above the crash.

The Dow is below the crash. But that has to do with United Health and there was another one that blew up. There will be no excuse going forward and I will give no quarter going forward if the president again changes his mind because that will crash the market again as well as the market has improved

and we had that confirming day you remember the day we told you it was a confirming follow-through day and we'll see what happens that was the 22nd. If he turns tail and gets what he says is tough on trade again and the market croaks again, he will deserve all the crappy poll numbers he will be getting.

His change of complexion had to do with the crash and his poll numbers that have gone sad. big time. In fact, some of the numbers are the worst at this moment in time for a president in almost history. We love the guy. We want him to succeed. We love him because he's the president. We want him to succeed. We want this country to grow. We want greatness. We want to be able to move forward. We are in hopes. They have learned their lesson.

All day to day was China, China, China, China, China. And how reaching out. And of course, they're trying to send the message, it's China, but we know better. And we only deal in facts here, ladies and gentlemen, when we curry no favor, which takes me to how the hell did we get here? How the hell did we get here? Let me explain. How did hell did we ever get to the point where one man can print to $9 trillion?

Jay Powell was able to, with no accountability, no oversight. I don't know exactly how they do it, but they set it on 60 minutes, presses a button on a computer and printed trillions of dollars and rigged the whole freaking bond market taking rates down to nothing causing 3% mortgage rates which has distorted the whole housing market

because who the hell is going to sell a house with a 3% mortgage to buy one with a 7% mortgage that also and we said it in real time he caused

most of the inflation he was the culprit go look it up anywhere too much money chasing too few hands is what causes inflation

that's what he did and I always asked how to hell did we get here how is this great country how did we get to the point where one man can print to $9 trillion, not one trillion or $9 trillion.

And it's still, what are we, still at $6.5 trillion, still out there. Oh, and I hear on all his buying, they lost $500 billion. Oh, but it's only funny money, so don't worry. how the hell did we get to the point where these jerks in D.C. can put us in debt $37 trillion and ask for more. You do know the Republicans just put in a new budget that adds another $5 trillion plus,

even though they're telling us, oh, we are the party of, you know, isn't these great questions? How did we get to the point where we handed over 800 billion of our tax dollars to a bunch of thieves in Wall Street in 2008? A bunch of thieves. But we did. Up next, how the hell did we get here?

And after that, the markets, I promise. This is the one only investor's edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted in the show. nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs,

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Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. So, how the hell did we get here? How the hell did we get here? Let me tell you how we got here. It's not we the people.

We work for them. That's how we. got here. We work for them. Back in 2008, they took our tax dollars and gave it to a bunch of freaking crooks. Crux. Freaking crooks on Wall Street. That not one got indicted even though they committed massive fraud in plain sight. They all kept their jobs and all made billions after the fact because they were so well connected. And some of them became politicians and cabinet members. And then vice versa.

How the hell did we get here? Which takes me to my next part of how the hell did we get here. And before I mentioned the new thing that just came up, not one of you can disagree. with anything I'm saying. It's all factual. The latest that riled me up today

in the midst of my joy for the New York Knicks. Let me read one line to you. And just so you know this has nothing to do with President Trump, he just happens to be the president right now, and he's the one who did the tariffs. I'll take that back. It has everything to do with President Trump, but any other president.

Let me read one line to you. Nike and Adidas are asking President Trump for tariff exemption. And when I read that line, I got pissed off. For you and I, because it is not we the people, the power that they have over us now is just, gargantuan. We're nobodies. I'm recognizing that. And what do I mean? How the hell did we get to the point where one person, President of the United States or not, can decide on who pays a tax and how much and for how long? Tax legislation is supposed to go through The House, then the Senate, and then the pen of the president. How did we get to the point where one man could decide on whether Nike and Adidas will pay a tax? How did we get to the point where one person can say, Apple, you don't have to pay it?

Oh, those auto parts, you don't have to pay it. Oh, but you, you have to pay it. This is nuts. This is not for the people or by the people. We have become an insane asylum, and this is not a rub on Trump. It is a rub on our system. Nike and Adidas. Please, Mr. Trump.

Please, President Trump. Please don't make us pay the tax. And let me be clear, it is not a tariff. It is a tax. If Nike imports a million dollars of sneakers and there's a 20% tariff, $200,000 is coming out of the coffers of Nike to our treasury, please, Mr. President, be kind to us. This is ill.

and let me repeat and I have to say that to the MAGA people this is not about Trump this is about a system that has gone run a mock oh and did you know

that Tim Cook gave a million dollars to the Trump campaign for the inauguration you're catching my drift I'm not saying that bought anything I'm not saying that bought anything I'm

saying we've run amok. You want to argue? You can't. We're now in a situation where one man is deciding on who's paying a tax. Mr. President, I sell Tchkees for $10 a piece. Snow globes. I get them all from China. you're telling me I got to pay 25% tariff

$2.50. I got to pay to the treasury. I'm going to do a million of them. I have to pay the treasury $2.5 million. Mr. President, please help me out. This is insanity. We're screwed. The system is screwed.

We've let it happen. And I repeat, this ain't a rub on Trump. This is a rub on the system where one man can print a nine trillion bucks, nine trillion dollars. Another man can decide on who's paying taxes and how much. And to when? We're not for the people by the people of the people anymore. this is insanity. This is insanity.

Picking winners and losers by one man? That would be a dictatorship. That's what a dictate is. I am not calling Trump a dictator. The system is becoming dictator-like. Biden did it. Hey, you signed a contract. I'm letting you out of it.

Up next We'll put a bow tie on it And then the markets Lots to say This is the one only investor's edge Guys, it's no use Putting it off The best time for an underwear refresh is now

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It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. All right. Let's try to put a bow tie on this. Biden, dictator. When did we get to the point where one man can tell somebody that signed a contract on a loan? That 50,000 you owe? You don't know it anymore.

That's paid by the taxpayer. For the people, by the people of the people? No. Dictatorship. Did we have any say when Biden? open the border on purpose? Did we have any say in that? Not a lick.

10 million, 12 million, 14. Who the hell knows how many millions came through? And who the hell knows how many bad people came through? And then they got free this, that, and the other thing? Oh, wait a minute, it's not free. We pay it. Oh, wait a minute. But don't worry.

It's not coming out of your bank account. We'll just add it to our debt. You catch in my drift? We're becoming a dictatorship society where we have no say. Think about that. Adidas and Nike can now go. And a president can make the decision on if they pay taxes or not. And then, you know, if they say yes to Adidas,

and Nike, who's next? Under Armour! Crocs! On Holdings! Who else? Please, Mr. President. No, we like Nike, but we don't like Under Armour. So yes to Nike, no...

What? And just so you know, none of this is open to debate. These are facts. and it just hit me when I was sitting here and up came a headline Nike and Adidas asking

President Trump for tariff exemption I'm realizing we're screwed not because of President Trump because of the system enables now President Trump

to tax the hell out of everybody or get rid of the taxes I just realized that tariffs should be decided on by the House and then the Senate and then the President. Their taxes. They should be going through a process. Joe Biden relieving all that with taxpayer dollars to the students. That should have gone to a process. process. Biden pardoning his family? We should have had a say on that. And this just bubbled up when I saw

Nike and Adidas asking President Trump for tariff exemption. I already knew about the other exemptions. I knew about Apple and I knew about Tim Cook given a million bucks. I knew all this. but it did not hit me big time until 3.29 p.m. today when I saw that headline, I'm like, what? smack me right in the face. And for those you think I'm talking about Trump, I'm not.

I'm talking about the next person and the next person and next person. And those you may be pissed at me because I'm bringing up that it's under Trump now? What if Gavin Newsom is the next president, and I say the same thing about him? You'll be cheering me on. This is about a system that is now run amok,

and we have no say in the matter. We are lifeless now, and it doesn't matter who we elect next. the system now has run amok. How many executive orders have trumped up? And you know how he's able to do all these executive orders? Because Biden did a crap load of executive orders. We move on.

I can't wait to get emails on this. You want to disagree with me? Nice try. Everything I stated was fact. Here's another fact. Most everything, not individual. but as a whole. Sectors and stuff,

even the semiconductors are back above the 50-day moving average. Weak stuff. Retail. Back above the 50-day moving average. Declining 50-day, but still.

The transports, the weak transports are not there yet, but turning up. The home builders, not there. Home builders got a little bit above the 50-day moving average today. More improvement. Good advance declines. While there were bad reactions to earnings, namely Apple,

some really good reaction to earnings. Duolingo at 250 times earnings. Remember yesterday we said, oh, Facebook was distributed and volume at resistance. Facebook was up 24 bucks today. Still way down from the highs, but back above the 50 day. Remember Microsoft yesterday? Came back a bunch.

Was up nine and changed today. Remember the number one name we talked about that we thought would lead Netflix, up another $24 today. The story of today? Improvement. And notwithstanding the president doing a complete about face on the tariffs,

which would crumble the market again, we are going to end up with a crap load of setups as we move forward. We promise nothing in real time improvement Goldman Sachs back above the 50 day today JP Morgan

back above the 50 day today Wells Fargo back above the 50 day today I think those are important stocks Bank America by the way they're way down from the highs but in order to turn the corner the first thing that has to happen

is you've got to get back above the 50 day moving average because it is a definable area. City group back above the 50-day moving average. So hope got more hopeful. As overnight, China says, if the United States meets these, what's the word I'm looking for,

meets these requirements will talk. If you don't meet the requirements, not so sure they're going to talk. Heard a lot of pundits saying, China would be worse off than us. No, we disagree. We'd all be up, you know what's creep without a paddle. Do recall with those tariffs,

the dollar was crumbling. Our bond market was crumbling. The stock market was crumbling. The president's poll numbers were crumbling. So those who say otherwise are in the tank. Get out of the tank. Let's deal with reality. Everyone would be losing.

Up next, the week in review. This is the one only investor's edge. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. There's zero shape thanks to four times more stretch than competing break. and their innovative horizontal quick draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you.

Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit. than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one

step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Sprecker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple.

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and walk once again to Investor's Edge Here is your week in review A continuation of the backing off of the tariffs Which I consider to be one of the biggest Economic mistakes that we have seen in ages But the good news is Two days later I take that back

Two days And a week weekend later, they backed away. And rightfully so. So we give them credit for at least changing. I do give them that credit. And I don't mind that they made up a BS story about why we are making a pause or taking a pause. They said it had nothing to do with the markets. What's that line? Don't we, down my back and tell me it's raining. We know exactly why they changed their stance. The markets were crashing. The market dictated. And you know what? That's good news that they listened. What happens next? I have no idea because I am not the head of the president. But I'm pretty sure they don't want the market to crash again. What I'm interested in saying

I don't know if you know this, but on Wednesday, while the market was crumbling in the morning, the president said, somebody asked about the market and the president said this is Biden's stock market. Do you know since he said that, the Dow was up 1,400 points? I'm waiting for it to tell us it's Trump stock market, which has me stating the president. should hire me as his chief of staff. I forgot who's his chief of staff, that woman Susie Wiles or something. She ain't doing a good job, or maybe she is and has no influence.

So the week in review, continuation of the backing away of tariffs, more exemptions, as I stated, how the hell did we get here? And China, saying if you meet our requirements, By the way, last night,

last night, futures were down. NASDAQ was down. And then it came out that China would be interested in moving forward if those requirements were met. And the Dow went from down 40 on futures to up 300 before you can say boo. When I went to sleep, it was almost 400. The NASDAQ, which was down 70 or 80 because of Apple and Amazon, boom, immediately up 100 and change.

So leave no doubt the market is moving on tariff news. And we have now got back the crash. And just so you know, it was a two-day crash. Boy, that was a big one. The Dow has not gotten back the crash yet. The Dow was at 42-2-25. So we're still 900 points under the crash on the Dow. But other things better because of better?

Well, let me put it best. United Health drop like 850 Dow points. I think that's the difference. Sentiment coast-to-coast. We follow something called an awesome. that at 40 is very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very overbought was in the 80s today. So wouldn't be surprised some moderation, some pulling back. And frankly, for me, would be welcome.

It would set things up better. But the week in review is, more tariffs go by-bye. market gets better. Earnings reactions, for the most part, pretty good, with a few blow-ups. Well, I take that back. There's still a lot of blow-ups. And as we head into next week,

there's a crap load more earnings reports and we'll be ready for them. Big Movers, Duo Lingo today. Wow. Very good recovery from reversals yesterday on Microsoft and Netta. today. Recent gap up, Spotify,

gap down on earnings, reverse. Today they had something going on with Apple. Up 40 bucks today, almost breaking out of range. And as we have told you, pay attention to the new yearly high list. If the market's going to keep getting better and better, that's the place you want to look.

That is where your strength is. and is by no accident the first things that broke out like a Netflix have been on the big move. I have no idea, no clue what Monday brings or what next week brings. I know where we are right now. Mark, it's got a nice little improvement week. And Wednesday morning wouldn't have said that.

In case you don't know, we went down big Wednesday morning. reversed well. Yesterday, we were reversing to the downside into the clothes. Gapped it up today. Welcome to a crazy market. But big picture leave no doubt, more improvement. And basically, we're back to where the market crashed. Remember, where the market crashed from those two days, Thursday and Friday, because of those

idiotic tariffs. The market was weak before that. We'll see how it goes from here. That said, you all have a great weekend, drive carefully, and everything we said was factual. And when you get home, do like we do, quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise they will be well. And go Nix. Good night, all. We'll be back to your Monday. Take care. Bye-bye. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com.

That's GaryK.com. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John Underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game change. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort.

That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change.

See Capital One.com for details.