Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Apple, Bonds, and The Market [09.09.2026 w Adam Sarhan]

Episode Date: September 9, 2026

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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary CultBomb. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Adam Sarhan in for Gary Kaye, who's out today. Today is Wednesday, September 9th, 2026, and we have a great show for you tonight. As always, I want to thank you very much for being here. All right.

Before I jump into the show, we have a lot to cover. Let's go through some housekeeping. This is a show about you and your money and all of the fun points in between. If you don't get this show in your city, you can go to garyk.com, listen live or archive. We are live Monday through Friday, 6 to 7 p.m. Eastern, and you can listen on any device for free on garyk.com. You can also subscribe to Gary's morning notes sent directly to your inbox. Every day, you can subscribe to Gary's premium service, which is convictionleaders.com, or at least take a free trial to it if you are interested. All right.

A lot's happening in the market. Let's go ahead and dive in and talk. First, notes from Gary. Relative strength continues to be strong in the semiconductors and artificial intelligence stocks in memory and storage as well. But even that is as narrow as narrow can be with a select few names. Oil continues going up because the market believes we have no control of what's going on out there.

Forget what people think or say. And yields keep going up in spite of the Treasury Secretary going in and buying up bonds to get yields lower. We were told he added $6 billion today, but that's a fly on an elephant's tush. Advanced declines are still terrible with a lot of areas in the market continued to weaken,

especially consumer-oriented stocks. And Treasury Secretary bought and still did not have... Okay, and the Treasury Secretary said he's the house. And he bought today, still didn't... help, bonds are still lower. So again, the idea here, those are the notes directly from Gary, so I want to just make sure I do my part and convey the message, be the messenger. And now the rest of it, I'll just give you my thoughts and see how we can make sense of what's going on. And really set us up to win. So middle of the week, I always like to take inventory of where we

are and then what to expect going forward. And what can we learn? And then really just set the stage for what can come next. Obviously, there's nobody knows what's going to happen. But the good news is you don't need to know what's going to happen with absolute certainty to do well in this business. In fact, really, just like most performance-based businesses, you just need to stack, think of probabilities. Think of probabilities. Think of stack the odds of success in your favor when you take positions, when you trade, when you analyze markets, when you come up with a thesis, and then, of course, justify it based on reality or actuality, what's actually happening in the real world. So in the movie business, you know, actors get paid. a tremendous amount of money,

but they're in the performance-based business too. So they get paid very, very well to perform. Same with us in the financial space, right? Get very, very well to perform. If an actor makes a movie or a producer or whatever the case is, and the movie flops, nobody buys it. Guess what happens? They're going to adjust.

They're not going to get paid that well. And if they do very well, they'll adjust and they'll get in line with actuality. How does the market the consumers that watch the movie? that buy their product, respond to the film that they make. They need more sound effects, more budget, less budgets,

you know, blah, blah, blah, blah. So same thing with our business. We have a thesis. Oh, I think this car, this movie, I'm just going to make something up and make it silly so it sticks. This movie about, you know, glue

can be a great movie. All right. Or a movie about paint, right? Glue and paint. How about that? Those are two main characters. I go make a movie. I spend all this money.

I invest the proverbial dollar, whatever that money is, into the movie, and then I launch it. And the movie flops. Nobody wants to watch paint dry. Or watch glue just sit there and do nothing. It's boring. Guess what?

It didn't work. So I had a hypothesis. I tested that hypothesis against the real world. The market in the movie business, or by the way, sports, similar situation, and I play really well if I do this. And don't do that. And okay, adjust. So let's just keep the analogy here about the sports, the connection, connecting dots,

between performance businesses. It applies to most performances businesses, but we're talking about finance and investing. So let's stay focused there. The movie business, you have a hypothesis you tested. Okay, the first movie didn't work. Well, guess what? What does a studio do? They launch another movie.

And then another one. And then another one, right? Eventually, let's just say they have 10 movies they launch. One, hopefully, or two, hopefully, if not more, will become blockbusters and then more than make up for the budget on the ones that don't. work. And the same thing with trades, active trades. You can have 10 trades. I've said this before, but I'll say it again. And you can have two people. Trader A, trader B. Trader A has nine trades in a row correct. Every time they're right, they make a dollar. So they're up nine dollars. The 10th trade, they lost $10. Net net, they're down $1, even though they had a 90% win rate. Trader B did the exact

opposite lost nine times in a row every time they lost one so they're minus nine the 10th trade they won 10 net net they're up a dollar even though they had a 90% loss rate so again focus on the net net after everything if you can keep your loss as small the good thing with the movie is that your budget is limited so i'm going to spend a dollar on that movie what a hundred million a million it doesn't matter it's 50 million you come up with the budget and there's your budget and then you go into the market can we make back that investment and And then some. And if there's a surplus, great. It's in the winning column. If there's a loss, it's in the losing column. Same thing with traits. A lot of the work that I do is the coaching work

and the helping, you know, getting psychological analysis and helping people, it's fundamental and technical analysis. In my thought, in my opinion, it's not enough to beat the market. So I wrote a book and it was number one on Amazon. Thank you all for supporting it and leaving nice reviews. It's called psychological analysis. In one sentence, it teaches people how to make rational, not emotional decisions with their money. So when you understand it's another one of those, like Ray Dalio says, who's the biggest hedge fund manager, was the biggest in the world, he wrote a book.

It's called Principles. Great book. And he talks about studying history, learning from history so you don't repeat it. And he says it's another one of those. A debt crisis, a guy blowing up trading, Leopold last month or two months ago in July. Whatever the case may be, it's happened before. Most likely, in the market, things have happened. before. But what happens? Most people don't study it and then they think, oh, it's the first

time this will happen. Or they know it, like Leopold. He knows about risk. He didn't follow prudent risk management. He didn't play defense. That's my first rule in investing is defense first. All the people that, just about all the people that blow up in the market blow up because they don't respect risk. That simple analogy of 10 trades, nine or wrong, one is right. To the layman, if you ask the average person. Oh, you've got two traders. One is a 90% losing rate. One is a 90% win rate. Which one would you give your money to? Oh, of course, the guy is right 90% of the time. But if they don't size their wins and losses properly, you still can lose money if you're right 90%. Same thing in performance businesses. So when you understand, it's another one of those.

You understand that it's not about me, you, the individual playing the game, understand the rules of the game, understand risk and understand reward, understand how people that succeed in this business, is how they thrive and you respect risk, just like the movie business, respect risk. They can't put all their money in one movie. It doesn't work. And then they got a problem. So it's that diversification type of a thing, but staying narrow. They don't diversify into 50 or 100 movies.

Usually it's a slate of 10, 10, 5, 15, 20. It's not 5,000 movies for most studios at least that I'm familiar with. And then, you know, out of those 10, one or two hit and boom, it makes up for all the other ones that had a limited budget. because what's happening? And nature's this way also, folks. And again, I'm sharing this right at the top of the show because it's really important, understanding risk. In fact, it's one of the most important things in our business. It's risk management. And it's not a really exciting topic. In fact, it's a dull topic. Most people don't like talking about risk, but it's the important topic that differentiate successful people for most successful in this business is determined by how you handle risk and handle your emotions. And that's where I focus all my attention on, because those things really are just next level.

It's freedom at next level. So when you have a situation where you're looking at your market, the market's not really doing much. It's going down a little bit under some distribution. Gary mentioned the advanced decline line going down. It's just sitting there. We have some catalysts coming up. Later this week, we're going to get an inflation number from last month. Oil prices are up a lot since then.

Over the last few weeks, food prices were up a lot. I talked about corn here on the show. Talk about wheat. You type in C-O-R-N. It's an E-T-F that tracks corn. Wheat, W-E-A-T, soybeans, S-O-Y-B, and so on and so forth, you can see. Food and energy have gone up since the last, you know, I'm expecting inflation later this week to come out on the higher side. It's definitely going to be higher next month because oil prices are near 100.

So, then they weren't there a month ago. Unrenewed concern about the situation in the Middle East. There's more strikes this week and tensions escalated. Oil prices went up, bottom line. Energy is in the leading area in the market. Spoke about that for weeks now. You've had a situation where energy prices are leading. Energy stocks, the XLE, the OIH, the XOP, so on and so forth.

They do well when energy goes up. I mean, oil goes up. It's a simple concept. Very powerful. So go back to the risks for a second. You look at the movie business. Okay, you can, it all comes down to asymmetric risk versus reward. That's a fancy schmancy word for when you're wrong, risk one.

limit the downside. It's a proverbial one, whatever that is, right? Have a cap on the risk. That's the magic. And predetermined, before you enter, cap that risk. So you're not coulda, woulda, shoulda, Monday morning quarterbacking, so on and so forth. And then the reward, of course, have that be higher and let it take care of itself. Up next, we've got a lot more to cover. I'm Adam Sarhan. This is the one and only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management.

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The number to call is 888-4-2-5-59. That's 8-8-5-59. That's 888-4-22-55-59. Investment advisory services offered through call-bomb Capital, management. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming with Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Adam Sarhan. In case you missed anything, you can go to

InferryK.com. Rewind, fast forward. Pause at your convenience on any device. Rewind, fast forward. Do anything you want, all for free on GaryK.com. So a few thoughts. We talked about risk. We talked about reward. Ended off talking about asymmetric risk to reward. It's really important, folks. Before I buy any stock, I always ask myself three questions.

One, where am I going to enter? Two, where am I going to exit? Three, how much am I going to risk if I'm wrong? I'll say it again. If you want to write it down, by all means. Enter, exit, risk, those three words. It's where am I going to enter? Where am I going to exit?

And how much are I risk if I'm wrong? That's it. Simple. Not overthinking it, not going crazy, not doing any of that type of stuff. Really, really simple. Why? Because a big part of this business is, again, getting in touch with actuality, what's actually happening and getting out of our heads.

Tony Robbins, Jim Rohn. If you haven't listened to Jim Rohn, I see. strongly recommend it. Again, I have no affiliation with either one of those two gentlemen. Jim Rohn was Tony's teacher. If you go on YouTube and type in Jim, R-O-H-N, you've got tremendous content, tremendously valuable content from Jim. And he taught Tony and Tony, obviously, taught millions and millions and millions of people, really just different ways they can succeed. And most importantly, they've got a line says if you stay in your head, you're dead. Not literally dead, but from a business standpoint, from a success standpoint, from getting

leveling up standpoint, you kind of die. Why? Because it's very tough, almost impossible, to scale and get to the next level if you're stuck in your head. and some people I speak to and work with younger kids in the 20s and 30s, you know, ego is obviously a big thing. But a lot of them, you know, you don't learn this stuff. A lot of them don't know what I'm sharing here. And we have a thing where we call it, upgrade the user. Apple had this big event today with the new CEO. And they have announced foldable iPhones. They're upgrading their services.

They're upgrading their technology. Every year, every few months, we upgrade our software on the phone. okay great let's upgrade the user right who's smarter you today or you 10 years ago so us today hopefully we'll be smarter in 10 years time so that's a whole idea of upgrading the user and it's not with any kind of judgment it's like oh I'm bad now I need to be upgraded no no no goes good to great great the greater so on and so forth it's an upward sloping scale I mean there's no limit to how good or how great things can be in life it's the beauty of life it's unlimited just like the stock market unlimited 10 years time doubt

100,000, could be at 50,000, it could be at 200,000. You don't know, we don't know. Hyper productivity from A-A-A, who knows? We know right now, that's an important thing, what's happening right now. And then taking probabilities. So the point here that I want to make, it's really important. It's capping that risk, having the unlimited upside. And by the way, it's not just the movie business or the stock market, the investing business. It's nature. I've learned about this studying nature. How does the world work? And every hypothesis I have, Is the market going higher? Is inflation going up? Is inflation going down? Is the Fed going to raise rates? I can go on and on and on.

Has to be rooted and linked back to actuality. That's the arbiter of truth. That's how I determine whether my thinking needs to be upgraded. My thoughts right or wrong, so on and so forth, before it reflects in the portfolio. And I still make a lot of mistakes. And so does everybody. And that's okay, providing those mistakes are small. So look at nature. You have an apple tree or any tree. Let's just say, I don't know the number. I'm going to make up a number here, just to illustrate the point. A thousand seeds come out of that tree. I'm going to exaggerate to illustrate the point.

99 of those seeds die. Every time nature loses, one seed dies. One seed becomes a new apple tree, and then you repeat the process. You have another thousand seeds, 999 die. One becomes another tree, and nature flourishes. Why? Because the risk is limited. It's capped.

When you're wrong, you lose one seed. When nature is right, what happens? Unlimited upside. You have beautiful trees, forests, nature flourishes, flowers, so on and so forth. Asymmetric risk to return. So when you're testing the stock market, zoom out now, just look at the big picture, the S&P, the NASDAQ, the SMH, the Semiconductor index, look at the Russell 2000. You know, all of these things are just in a tight trading range right now as we approach the end of the quarter. You've got the Fed meeting next week. You've got inflation coming out later this week. In the end of the quarter, you kind of wrap up earnings season. You still have some companies that report earnings. I believe FedEx, Nike, a few other ones are reporting earnings over the next few weeks. But really, the bulk of running season is way behind us.

And now we're going to reset as we get to the end of the quarter. Okay. Over the next several weeks, right? There's still obviously a lot more news coming out at the Fed meeting and you got inflation and you got more economic data and retail. All this stuff is coming out. great. But really from an investing standpoint, the S&P, the NASDAQ, let me pull up market terminal here. If anybody wants to take a free trial, feel free. All right, the S&P 500 is about 2% from

an all-time high, right below its all-time high. The NASDAQ-100, the QQQ, is about four and a half, or four-and-a-quarter percent below an all-time high. It's just sitting in a very tight trading range below its all-time high. The Dow, They'll type in the DIA, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, this is the ETF that tracks the Dow, is about 4% below its all-time high. The Russell 2000 looks weaker on a relative basis. It's about 5% I'm rounding below its all-time high. It's below its 50-day moving average.

And same with the Dow, by the way. The NASDAQ 100 is sitting just above its 50-day moving average near its 21 day. The S&P 500 is above its 50-day moving average, but the Russell's below it. And the mid-cap, the MDY, the Russell 2000, by the way, is IWM. The mid-cap is below its 50-day moving average as well, 5.15% below its all-time high. So again, you're about 1 to 5% below an all-time high in all of the major indices. The Dow, the NASDAQ, the S&P 500, the Russell 2000, small caps, and mid-caps, the MD-Y, the S&P-400. It's not going to take much for a surprise to the upside for the market to break out.

and have another move higher. I'm not saying that's going to happen. I'm not predicting anything because nobody knows what's going to happen tomorrow in the market or a year from now or a week from now. But all I know, and the good news is I don't have to know with 100% certainty. All I know for sure is what? Is that right now we're right below a record high and we're trading in a very tight trading range. That's impressive. Now, if we start rolling over, like, the midcaps, look at the MDY, look at the IWM. You'll start seeing they kind of like they're rolling over a little bit here, right? The semiconductor index is 14% below its all-time high,

but it's up 53% for the year. At a huge year, it's just consolidating the ginormous movement had in Q2. All the indices are doing that. Until we see, by the way, in a tight trading range, it's not like we're seeing wild swings every day. Yes, it's the end of the summer. school goes back. It's early Labor Day. A lot of kids are going back to school now.

Our kids started, you know, over the last few weeks. My niece and nephew started the last few weeks. But it's just a tight trading range after a huge move up. Up next, we've got a lot more to cover. I'm Adam Sauri, and this is the one and only Investors Edge. We're listening to. America is talking. Investors Edge.

He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on its feet. here he's a Cinderella boy with Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. And welcome once again to Investor's Edge. I'm Adam Sarhan in case you're just joining us or missed any part of the show. You can go to GaryK.com, listen live or archive.

We are live Monday through Friday, 6 to 7 p.m. Eastern. All right. So a few things. The reason why I was talking about performance-based business and the movie business, This is because there's an article I read today about a historic summer box office and what it reveals about massive shifts in the theater industry. All right. So the domestic box office posted a record-breaking summer movie season, bolstered by an extra week of ticket sales and higher-priced premium screenings. The 26 annual hall is down just 7.5% from the 2019 pre-pandemic marker and is on track to top 10.

billion dollars for the first time in seven years since before COVID. While ticket sales are encouraging, the summer season highlights just how much the theater industry has changed since the pandemic, as it is now defined by fewer screens, fewer moviegoers, fewer movies, and higher ticket prices. Basically, people are streaming now instead of going to the theater. Spider-Man 3 from Sony was a big success. Illumination had, you know, the Zific 2, Iron Man 3, Man 3. of Steel, Montres University, you know, Fast and Furious Six from Universal, so on and so forth. So this was back, the previous summer record, sorry, it was in 2013 when all of those movies came out. So back in 2013, Disney had Iron Man 3, Illumination had Despickel to Me Too, Warner Brothers had Man of Steel, and Pixar had Monster University and Universal had Fast and Fury 6.

At the time, it was $4.75 billion. That was 2013. The 2026 season has a new spokesperson. Spider-Man. I had the movie Odyssey, which I haven't seen yet. The together contributed more than $1.5 billion of the summer's total, so and so forth. But anyway, that's why it was top of mind. And really what comes to me, what jumps out of me comes to mind when I read about the movie businesses and see these actors and talk about people, how much they get paid per movie. One of my really good friends as a producer. And he does, he makes a bunch of movies. And, you know, we talk shop all the time. He's also a big investor. I've invested in the movie business before and like it, haven't liked it.

I've had some questionable results, nowhere near anything that's worthy of anything. But I love success, and I'm working on a thought process or a limited series, a documentary I'd love to launch called success. Success limited series, and talk about success. I mean, on these streaming platforms, I watch TV, I'm sure people do too. When I'm on the treadmill, I watch TV just to keep my brain engaged in something. and I'd love to watch a show or documentary about success, studying the most successful people in history. So I've gone back and forth and talked to people. So anyway, that's why movies is top of my mind.

And I saw the article today and I was like, ah, there's a parallel between investing in movies and so on and so forth. So anyway, back to the market. So big takeaways. Markets going very quiet, quiet trading range. We've had every chance in the world to fall. Bond yields. soaring over the last few weeks. Oil prices soaring over the last few weeks. Inflation is going up. We have PPI producer price index and CPI consumer price index later this month, later this week.

Again, that's rearview mirror. It shows what happened in the past. You have new strikes in the Middle East. You have Iran the situation there. No end in sight. Okay. Stock market you would think. would be down, market, 3, 5% below an all-time high. To me, that's very strong. It's resilient. And I'm not sitting here saying, oh, the market has to go up. No, we can roll over in an instant. But the fact that we haven't yet rolled over for me is a bullish sign. It's a subtle sign, subtle but bullish. Why? Because it's not, and Gary said this a million times, it's not the news that matters. It's how the market reacts to the news. In a bullish environment, you get bearish news and the market doesn't budge or goes up. In a bearish environment,

the exact opposite happens. You get bullish news and the market goes down. You get bearish news and market goes down. Market just goes down, right? Bullish environment, like Q2 of this year, didn't really matter what the news was. Oil presses soared in Q2 this year. Market just brushed it off and lit a fuse in wildfire. April, May June. It didn't really matter. It didn't really matter. zooming out what the headline was. Oil prices went from 60 to 90 during that period. It didn't matter. Why? The reaction to the news. So for me, okay, we're in a bull market. I had one of the members at Fine Leading Stocks email me yesterday and say, Adam, I'm bored. The market is boring me. And he's been with me since I think 2004. I'm not mistaken. He's the longest member I have. Four or five. I think it was the end of four. He joined, or we started working

together and we've been together since. And I know him very well. We have each other's cell phone numbers and we talk, texts when he comes to town. I see him and all that fun stuff. And he texts me as I got bored and I've got the itch, the itch to go buy stocks just for the sake of scratching the itch. And remember, if you want to make money in the market, understanding what you want first is really, really important. If you want action, I always tell people go to Vegas, at least there you get free drinks with the, I don't drink, but that's a joke. Okay, in the market, If you just start trading for the sake of trading, which people do, just to scratch that itch because they want action, it's not about making money, but it is about making money, but it's

not. And then that's where that cognitive dissonance occurs, and that drives people bonkers and really causes people to lose a lot of money. A lot of this is self-imposed and not being aware of the underlying unconscious or subconscious triggers and or motives that are causing you to think the way it is or you're stuck in your head. Again, helping you getting out of your head. That is so important. Get in tune, get aligned with the market. Hope that makes sense. I really do because that's the goal. In order to make money in this business, if you're going to use an intermediate term strategy, you want to be aligned

with the market. You follow the trends. You're a trend follower. If there's no trend, it's going sideways and it's quiet like it's been for the last several weeks. There's not really much to do. Now, of course, stocks are breaking out. I think we had 10 breakouts today on Market Terminal. A lot of them were energy stocks. But still, I think it's not, sorry, 11 breakouts. BP broke out today, EQNR, SIG, SIG, which is a jewelry place. Big gap up on earning Cigit jewelers. SIG is a ticker. Again, there's breakouts just about every day. a lot of oil and gas breakouts today and I want to watch them all am I going to plow into them not necessarily the market's not that far from breaking out by the way on market terminal

there's ETFs that break out too it's not just stocks so and there's pattern recognition and there's AI built in and there's AI prediction and so on and so forth so when you're in a situation where you've got to put the pieces of the puzzle together right understand what itch am I scratching am I trading because it's a proper setup it's a proper setup it It's a proper breakout? Is it something that I quote unquote want to do? Or am I just trading because I'm bored? And boy, have I been there many times, not even being aware of what I'm doing.

Wrongfully, thinking I'm trading because it's the right thing to do or because this time it's going to be different. It's going to take off and go. It has to go. This one tick or this one day or this one trade or this one bar or or or I can tell you a lot more silly things I've done over the years. And still do. I'm human. I make mistakes all the time. But getting out of your head is so critical.

Getting aligned with the market is so critical. Being open-minded is so important. Listening to the feedback the market gives you. I test the hypothesis. It doesn't work. Like making a movie about glue and paint. Nobody wants to watch paint dry. I'm not going to make a movie about it. But if I think glue is a really good idea, hey, I try it. As long as the risk is limited and I have enough, it's not all my eggs, I'm not putting all my money in one idea. Great, might take a shot if I have high conviction. And if it doesn't work, I'm wrong, I lose one. It could be 1% of the portfolio, half of 1% 20 basis points, 30 basis points, 50 basis points,

whatever you feel that's prudent for you. Again, there's no investment advice being given here. Everything is general and educational purposes only. informational purposes only general education information. That's it. But figure out, do the work beforehand, before

during the trade. The other reason is why? A great thing you can do is just print out your trades or screenshot them and put them in two folders, winning trades and losing trades. What was I thinking when I bought this? What am I thinking when I sold it? my goodness if you do that every day for the next quarter the next 90 days or until the end of the year let's do that three and a half months which is amazing how fast time flies I can tell you with a tremendous amount of confidence that if you're honest you're intellectually honest with yourself

and you do that work just that one exercise winners and losers you'll have a lot of you'll learn a lot about yourself a lot a lot all right up next we've got a lot more to cover However, I'm Adam Sarhan. This is the one and only Investor's Edge. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go.

Action! Investors Edge. With Gary Culper. And welcome once again to Investor's Edge. I'm Adam Sarhan in for Gary Kay, who's out today. All right, so we've covered a lot of grounds. And again, if you've missed anything, I want to rewind anything, feel free to go to GaryK.com. Rewind, fast forward, pause, listen at your convenience on any device.

So the next few minutes here while we wrap up the show, I want to talk to you about walls, mental walls specifically. And it's chapter 10 in my book. And it's a situation where it's really important when you zoom out and you think about how we make this. Like, okay, first of all, let me tell you what mental walls are. Mental walls. I tweeted this today or I posted it on X today. they call it tweets or not who knows what's holding you back to chapter 10 in psychological analysis you can get the book on amazon or barns and noble anywhere you want and it was number one for every

day for three months so again thank everybody for supporting so chapter 10 mental walls and cognitive biases really what are that you ever do something to hit a wall i can't i don't hear you i don't know you i can't see you but i'm going to assume the answer is yes you've done something you've hit a wall before okay great that i call not physically literally hit a wall but you you know, emotionally, mentally, psychologically, whatever, just you've hit a wall. You can't get past certain, you get stuck. Okay. It's happened to me a million times.

I call it, I label it, I call it mental walls. And cognitive biases, that's not mine. That's just how it's like from psychology. You can Google them and type in or chat GPT it and say, hey, or AI it and say, hey, give me cognitive biases where it relates to decision making, their trading or investing, so on and there's a lot. So mental walls are just anything that stops you and holds you back. great athletes, great successful people. They all have coaches.

Think of it. Michael Jordan, you can go tennis, Nadal, Federer, you know, Djokovic, and all these guys have coaches. Why? Because here's a cognitive bias. We have a personal blind spot bias. We can't see ourselves objectively. I'll say it again.

One of the biggest biases that impact our trading ability is for us to see ourselves objectively. I'm not wrong. He's wrong. I have a guy in X who's following me. And the guy's going nuts telling himself, telling the whole world, he's not wrong, he's not wrong, he's not wrong, he's not wrong, he's not wrong.

To the point where I unfollow him, what are you talking about? Like he's so, his ego is just consumed him. He doesn't even see it. And so what if you're wrong? And so what if you're right? He's missing the whole point. Are you positioned? Did you make money?

Did you respecting risk? You know, all this kind of stuff. I'm the quiet guy and sit there and talk and do whatever they want to do. The personal blind spot bias is what? You can't see yourself objectively. Think of this way is a good analogy. There's a hundred newlyweds. Ask them the night they get married, put them in a room.

Raise your hand if you think you're getting divorced. Nobody's going to raise their hand. They're very few, right? But we know statistically, half of them are we getting divorced. That's an example of the personal blindsmen bias. Can I beat the market? Raise your hand. Put 100 traders in the room.

Do you think you're going to beat the market? Most people are going to say yes. Okay, statistically no. Well, why are only a few beating the market? They're doing the work. So the cognitive biases. The great aim of education is not knowledge but action. Herbert Spencer.

It's a great line. I'll read again. The great aim of education is not knowledge but action. I know a lot of really smart people that can't trade their way out of a paper bag, so to speak, right? So what are some of these walls? A knowledge wall. You just don't know. Don't know what to do. A certainty wall or a belief. I had a guy on coaching. He inherited $40 million from his father who passed away. And he said, oh, I'll never be Paul Tudor Jones the first time I spoke to him. So, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, stop. Not with that attitude. Now, sure, you might not be Paul Tudor Jones, but if you go into the ring or into the arena or into the market thinking you're going to lose, you're pretty much your belief is you're going to

lose and you're not good enough. So what is going to happen in your actions? Are they going to be good or bad? Probably bad. And that's going to reinforce the negative belief and give you worse results. Just because you have a good belief doesn't mean you're going to get better results, but it's going to help you take better action with more certainty so that belief is really, really important. How you talk to yourself is really, really important. Biased thinking. People say, oh, I'm not biased.

Okay, sure, right? If you have a mind, you have cognitive biases. It's not me. It's every single psychiatrist or psychologist ever that says that. So I want to know what these cognitive biases are. I want to know, I take that extra step. I want to dive in deep and look at my trades. What was I thinking when I bought that stock?

Simple exercise, just about anybody can do. What was I thinking when I sold it? Put them in a folder for winning trades and losing trades. What can I learn after I observe my own behavior objectively? If you can't do it or you want to coach, reach out and talk, you know, call someone, email someone. You want to reach out to me by all means. You can go to find leading stocks or email info at find leading stocks and we're happy to see if we can help. And what happens?

It's an objective third party. You can see yourself from outside. If you don't have the results you want, then do things like you're doing here. Listen to other people. Point of view that you respect. Gary, I've listened to him since the late 90s. Literally, I started, I was an undergrad,

and then in grad school, driving around with AM radio, listening to Gary on the radio. It's surreal for me to be here now in humbling and very, very, I mean, lack of words. I don't even have words to describe how it feels. And to be able to reach out and touch other people and get emails from other people saying, oh, Adam, thank you so much. I really liked X, Y, Z. Remember, health is wealth.

This is a show about money, but really it's your health, your mental health, your physical health. That's what's important how much money you have in the bank. There's mental capital. Capital comes in two forms. And there's physical capital. My focus is on that mental capital because you take somebody who has strong mental capital and they have a lot of money, guess what? You take all their money away, they're going to make it back again.

You take somebody who has poor mental capital to give an athlete that makes 50 million bucks and it's broke a few years later after they retire. Or a guy wins a lottery and he's broke afterwards. You hear these stories all the time. You give a bunch of physical capital and they squander it and they're broke again. The mental capital folks, and that's something that could be. upgraded, something that can be learned, and there's no cap to it. You know, Paul Tudor Jones and Stanley Drunken Miller, some of the greatest Bill O'Neill back when he was still alive, some of the

greatest traders in the world. They compete and they compete to win. They compete against themselves, against their former selves, and they compete against others in the market, other participants. How do you get smarter? How do we get, you know, make better decisions, so on and so forth. A lot of this comes from just avoiding common mistakes and pitfalls. Having processes in place that work. It's not about one trade or two trades. What's going to happen over the next thousand trades if I do this every time? Am I going to get the results I want? Yes or no? And if no, adjust. Don't keep doing the same thing, expecting different results. We know that's Einstein's definition of insanity. So, hope this has been helpful. I want to, just in closing here,

just say, hey, the market's going quiet. We've got a lot happening. Let's see how the market reacts. It's all the time I have for today. As always, want to thank you. you very much for being here. This is the one and only Investors Edge. This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on Biz Talk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryKK.com.