Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Are We There Yet? [09.29.2026]

Episode Date: September 29, 2026

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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Coltbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host. A thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening.

We're edging towards the end of September. It's Tuesday, the 29th. 30 days have September, April, June, November. Tomorrow is the end of the month, end of the quarter. They always say September's a rough month for the markets and it has not been great. May I state for the record as far as the average stock. The S&P, excuse me, the NASDAQ right now for the month is up 1.7%. Right now the NASDAQ 100 is up 3%, but the Russell 2000 is down 5%. By the way, that's only 2,000 stocks.

The industrials are down 3.5%. What did I tell you? The transports down 7.8%. The Dow is down 3.5. So it's those big indices we've been telling you about, by the way. The S&P is got to be up. No, the S&P is down point three for the month going into tomorrow. And as always, this is serious talk on everything that affects you.

The markets, the economy, your job, your industry, everything and anything that matters. From D.C. to around the world, shams and scams and corruption, you name it, we shall cover it. And if you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com. We'll also post it on our XVee. And if you don't follow us on X, you should. Just put our name in. If you'd like to email us, just be nice. By the way, we'll also post it on the YouTube channel of Biz TV.

Ladies and gentlemen, you know oil's been in the spotlight. We're not 100%. But we are getting a little bit of news about movement. how many tankers are moving, and it's getting better. It's getting better. But more importantly, it's the reaction. And we're just letting you know, oil prices topped out about eight, nine days ago. And a few days ago, they bounced up to a lower high, and now they are in a position.

You know how we talk about trends, short, intermediate, in long term? Well, at least on a short-term basis, we are on a position right now to break below last week's lows, which would be a stair step to the downside in oil prices. And may we state for the record, Mui importante to you, to I, to business, to markets. to bonds. As supposedly bonds move with them, though we are not so sure right now.

Just letting you know. And what we have seen over recent weeks because of higher oil and higher yields is just crappy, totally crappy internals of the market where I would come on this show and say to you, a thousand new yearly lows. Yesterday, 1,200. New yearly lows. With the S&P, a percent and change off of the highs. Stunning underneath the surface. We've been on here talking about 3,400 stocks down, 1,000 up. And as we tell you, you see that on more than a few occasions, that's the market. Well, I'd like to give you great news today, but I really don't. Because as I speak, and the market's going to close in about 15 minutes, as I speak, we have a thousand and 77 new yearly lows, 662 on the New York, 413 on the NASDAQ, hardly any new yearly highs, advanced declines today, 1644 up 20,000.

28, 28 down on the New York, 1711 up, 26, 26, down on the NASDAQ. So the internals still suck. Nothing good to report along those lines. But oil prices. Yields 10 year and 30 year were up today. But off the highs from earlier. But that still has to. to change. That train must change because that is the cost of capital. I must tell you, some very

bright people in the market believe that the broad market's about to bottom because of they look at these things called the relative strength indicator and they swear that yields the relative strength Indicator is at major extremes where turn comes and the broad market is the opposite Where the turn comes. I got news for you. Give me one day up with decent advanced declines. Give me one day up where the areas that have been murdered show some strength. Give me one day up where I can say, hey, Look what I found. Today's not the day. But there's some strength today.

Nothing spectacular. But there's some strength. The semiconductors. And may I state for the record, the equipment guy is strong. Up Meadow, which has been trading all over the map. What did it go up like 80 points and down 65 and two days? It's up 19 today. And some other things are on the move.

But overall, it's messy. When I scan all the hundreds and hundreds of stocks after the close, messy is being nice, and we're not talking about the soccer player. So we'll stay on top of it. We'll keep on top of it. We'll let you know. But I can't take much out of today except oil prices down nicely again. and some things are up.

ASML, up 56 bucks. It's an $1,800 stock. AMAT up 23, it's a $500 stock. So the equipment guy's better day. Marvell up 10, arm up 11, few others in Semiconductor Landstrong, but really nothing that is, you know, software names,

Very narrow list, a pretty good, but then I have to start reaching. Because financial stink. The economically sensitive stink. By the way, United Rentals is down 38 bucks today. By the way, it was down, wow, it was down 70 at one time today. And you know how important that is to us. And we still don't get how old. all these areas are in new yearly lows while we're being told we're going to have a 4 to 5% GDP number,

which tells me maybe it's going to be one-time good number off of exports, imports, or something like that. We'll see. We'll see. Because all I know is the consumer confidence numbers that come out stink. Job market, I'll call it okay. Job market's nothing special. I know they're out there yippin and yon when have 150,000 month. I got news for you.

We used to average 250. And the 150s right now is the outlier. Hopefully that gets better. Job market important. The consumer, though, I'm being told, is still spending. Do they ever stop? But very weird. Very weird to see retail.

and travel, these stocks have been destroyed. But we're hearing 4 to 5% GDP. And by the way, I think that's a real number. And I'm pretty sure it comes out mid-October. But the Dow's still down today, and you know what's leading down? That'll be up next on Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalpom, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people.

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You're listening to Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Cult Bomb. It doesn't get better than this. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. So there have been some weird action in Apple,

NVIDIA, just sawtooth-like moves. So Apple recently gapped down on earnings and has been drifting higher almost to new highs about five days ago. About five days ago. And we love new highs here, but it depends on how it gets there. So we haven't done anything with it because the market stinks. And we're much more careful right now. Apple's down $9 today.

By the way, that may not sound like a lot, but for an Apple, that's a big $9. That's a lot of market cap kids. I'm hearing rumors or what the reason is. I'm not even going to bring it up. Doesn't matter. But nine bucks on Apple, you're ready for this? How many shares outstanding on Apple now? Well, it's $5 trillion.

They took it off. It's a $5 trillion market cap down, let's call $135 billion of market cap today on Apple, on a nice little top in place. That's not helping things at all, in the Dow at least. And in the Dow also, I have to tell you, Johnson and Johnson's been a very strong. pharmaceutical name, but the whole medical has been mixed. That one looks like it's topping out also. United Health, that group has been in trouble. That's worsening here.

And I got to tell you, you know what stock's stinking up the joint in the Dow? Walmart. Walmart's in a classic bear market, riding down the 50-day moving average, which it just touched three days ago. It's down another two bucks today about 1.8%. That's stinking up the joint, but then again, most all retail is stinking up the joint. Amazingly so. With some retail stocks, they've crashed.

They have crashed a bunch of retail stocks. Lululemon, $516 to not. $96. Nike, 180 to 36. How about LVM, which is the rich people, I mean the real rich,

200 down to 89. I can do more, but I think I made my point. Unbelievable, huh? Classic bear markets. And we'll continue to avoid retail until it gets better. We have told you, hey, there's some outliers. Best Buy Axwell, Abercrombian Fitch, Axwell, Target Axwell,

Victoria's Secret getting a little bit better. After that, misery. So we stay away. Anything else sticking out today? Just the semi is better. Micron reports after the close. I mentioned meta, which is trade. I mean, I don't know what to tell you.

Goes from 650 to 780, down to 715, back up 21 today. I'd be too afraid to touch it for the next three minutes. But I have to repeat again. I believe the Dow was down over 300 today. As we speak, is only down 100, only. Only. 51, 129, 240. It was down about 340.

It's down 108 as I speak. But the story again today. 1,192 stocks up, 2819 down on the New York. 1739 up on the NASDAQ, 2612 down. New Yearly lows on the New York, 667. You ready for this? New Yearly highs on the New York? 24. You want to talk bad internals? There you have it. And by the way, of that 24, they ain't much. There ain't much. There ain't much. And I'm looking at what's at New Yearly highs. I couldn't sink my teeth into anything. Agilent and medical. Hinge Health Medical. Moderna, we know about that.

that. Revity, another medical. Illumina, another medical. 10x genomics, another medical. Network appliance technology. That's about it. That's your new yearly high list. A couple of the spec medicals. On the NASDAQ new yearly highs, nothing. I have no additions. Some of these trade on both exchanges, so I'm not going to mention them. Think about that. And I can't even keep the New Yearly Low List on my little screen because there's too many. That is a must change. Bullish markets are made of strong advanced declines, good breath, meaning advanced declines, a good amount of new yearly highs breaking out and ascending, and we ain't got squat. Oil stocks coming in now with oil topping for now, and let's hope that continues.

By the way, if any of you were in the auto dealership business, let me know what the hell is going on. They're crashing the auto dealer stocks. Now, they were already somewhat bearish, and then the announcement of, raising rates by a whole quarter point with that crash, the auto dealer stocks, just a quarter point. And when I mean crash, I mean crash. And we're always asking questions. Lithium Motors 430 to 288. Is that a crash?

Asbury Automotive Group, 257 to 173. Yeah. Up next. we're closing the market. We'll have the final numbers and whatever else. This is the one to only Investors Edge. We're listening to

America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to.

Auto Nation. 236 to 156. Group 1 Auto, 378 to 240. And by the way, this is just from the beginning of August. If any of you in the auto dealer business, let me know what you see or what you're thinking. Or just what the hell's going on here. We're big believers in cause and effect.

And we're also big believer in reactions. Let me tell you what else is not acting well. Steel stocks. completely topped out. New Corps is breaking more support today. Steel Dynamics breaking more support today. I didn't hear anything about any new tariffs. You know, tariff man.

Who knows? And then financials, just no bids right now. The good news is off the lows of early this morning, but really no oomph whatsoever. Goldman again today was down about $13. Right now it's flat. And then all these other areas. Housing related.

Other commodities. I mentioned economically sensitive. Things like Illinois Toolworks, GE, W.W. Granger, United Rentals. I mean, it's miserable. The one thing that was pretty decent and today is Carnival Cruise Lines in their numbers. But earnings were flat.

Revenues only up three, but the stock was up 13%. Why would that be? Well, the stock was down pretty big already. So tomorrow's going to be Micron. J-Bill, that's not so unimportant. And by the way, Nike. That's still in the Dow and quite amazing. And by the way, when I talk retail,

There are now stocks in what I call death drops and slow death drops. And what do I mean by that? Home Depot has gone from 358 to 288 since August 11th. 70 points. It's about 18, 19%. But a slow death drop is down a dollar. Down $2. Down $1.75.

And every five days, four down, one's up. Home Depot. They only do about $160 billion in revenues. And Lowe's is doing the same. In that same time, Lowe's has gone from 225 to 187. By the way, Lowe's topped out in February 293. It's now 187. and I visit Home Depot a lot.

Business looks okay. I don't think, I don't see anything magnificent. Looks okay with my little small sampling. But again, we're just stunned. We're just stunned. We've parked our carcass in these big indices that are like rocks of Gibraltar so far because of the makeup.

and as I have told you, what do we mean by makeup? Well, in the Dow, Goldman is 27 times the move that Nike is. Price weighted. Now, of course, the others are percentage weighted. And as we said to you, and amazingly so, 30 stocks of the S&P 500 are 4,400 of the S&P 500, are 4,400 of the S&P points. The other 470 or 3,300. That's what we mean by influence. If nothing changes with the underbelly the market and they get the big stuff, look out. But so far, it ain't happening.

Today, Apple, big, drops nine bucks, but meta up 22. Big offsets it. A lot of that's been going on. I have no clue why. But it's not helping out the small caps. It's not helping out the midcaps. It's not helping out China. It's not helping out Europe anymore as European

stocks that were ports in the storm under pressure also. Why? Well, their yields are going up also. Cost of capital going up also. Now, we hope again, we mentioned to you this relative strength stuff. Hopefully yields start pulling back soon. The 50-day moving average on the 10 years at 4-8, the yields at 5.255. That's stretched. We'll see. The problem is I could have said it was stretched yesterday, the day before, the day before, the day before, the day before, the day before.

And it's still going. Nothing really going on today in the Iran thing. The best way I can explain, I don't think there's a war anymore. I think what we have is some sort of a stalemate, and I must tell you, okay, I'll take a stalemate. The straits are better. We don't control them like the president says, but the straits are better. Oil exports have picked up, risen pretty decently in the last month. Hopefully that's what is doing the reflection here.

of oil prices coming down. The president is threatening to attack again after the election. I have no clue what comes to that. AI, big in the news, you know what we think. Al Gore told us that Florida would be underwater 20 some odd years ago in 10 years. Now the AI people are saying, we're worried about humanity. Do we believe that? We are hearing that some of this stuff is taken over stuff and doing things it's not supposed to do or over doing things or overdoing things or not listening.

Here's what I think an answer is, shut it down. If it ain't working, you shut it down. If it's doing the wrong thing, you shut it down. How about that for a simple answer? I don't think it's good enough to say, Oh, self-rigue, just shut it down. There was a story yesterday about Meta's muse, went into some account and did this, that, and the other thing,

and it wasn't supposed to. Shut it down. Fix it. How hard is that? Do I trust these people? No. You know what I don't trust? Anthropics, supposedly they're going to do a $2 trillion initial public offering. They lost $42 billion in the last year. That's $42 billion.

This I trust. Revenue's growing exponentially. It was $42 billion. And then humanity. I got news for you. I'm just hoping to have a decent. and dinner tonight. I also must tell you, I hardly use the stuff. When I go on Google, it has this little AI thing if I need it. I just use that. I've never used chat, GBT. I'm being told, oh, you can buy airplane tickets with it. I do it myself. I'm told it'll write a speech for you. I'll write the speech myself. I don't care. Somebody bought

me the Alexa by Amazon years ago. I threw it in my closet. I don't even know what happened to it. All right. Up next. What else? We'll figure it out. This is the one only Investor's Edge. You're listening to.

What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! In Investors Edge. With Gary Culper. Dun-da-da. By the way,

the three year yield is 4.99%. Two year is 4.89. Five years is 5.06. 10 year 5.26.30 year 5.59. I hear somebody say, don't worry. It's just normalization. Don't worry. He's right.

but he's also wrong. He's right that it's normalization. You're getting past Powlitis. But you know where he's wrong at? Don't worry. If an economy is used to 3.5% and all of a sudden it's 5.5, well, that's an economy that has to adjust.

If an economy is used to 6% mortgages and then all of a sudden it's 7.5, that's an economy that has to adjust. and so on and so forth. I think you've got to be very careful about that. Now, I want to finally spend some time with, is there really a worry about a gargantuan blowup in this artificial intelligence space?

Am I worried? You're damn straight I am. And let me tell you why. It has nothing to do with the companies. It has nothing to do with the companies. It has everything to do with the concentration in the stock market. Everything to do with the concentration in the stock market. What causes dislocations is the market getting concentrated in just one or two, maybe a little bit more areas. And those areas top out and go by-bye. And since they're so over-owned, over-loved and

over-leveraged, especially the over-leverages, oh, they go a long way down. The reason why we had an 80% drop in the NASDAQ back in 2000 to 03 was because of the concentration that, remember what I told you, the story, I had visited the CEO of a major housing company at the time. His stock was trading at one time's earnings while you had these other companies trading it 500 times earnings. Yet the housing companies' earnings were much more stable. And he asked me, are they ever going to buy my stock again? And I said, eventually it's going to change. And it just happened nine months later. It bottomed, everything else topped. What we are seeing now is the concentration beyond the beyond.

The numbers I read to you yesterday, and last week, about that concentration, sore thumbs, 30 stocks are 4,400 S&P points, 470 of them are 30, wow, 10 stocks make up 41% of the total stock market capitalization. And now they're going to do an anthropic at two trillion bucks. They just this SpaceX at 1.5, 1.35, with 18 billion in revenues, if things ever get normalized and that's not an if when, they will. It always changes. Look out.

This concentration is going to change. Is it tomorrow? I don't know. Is it next week? I don't know. Is it six months? Is it a year? Is it two? I don't know. Oh, but we'll be ready. But right now, it's worsening. The market has been brutally beaten up in the last few weeks. while the S&P NASDAQ NASDAQ 100 hold tight because of their technology influence. If anything changes, we'll let you know. By the way, not to mention again, at the close today, 1,124 new yearly lows on the New York and NASDAQ. There were only 27 new highs on the New York, 70 on the NASDAQ, and by the way, just cut that in half. Because a bunch of non-operating. So yeah.

And we have spent hundreds of hours studying 99 in 2000 and how it went. And we remember the last vestiges of it was when Intel warned the day after Labor Day in 2000. And then they went after whatever was left. I believe it was Corning back then and a few others. stay tuned. We're going to be ready if and when. We think when.

But we are always open to all outcomes. But there is no way this concentration is here for good. If there's anything 100% about the market, things will eventually change. And the concentration will get

unconcreated and new things will show up. be ready you have a great evening drive carefully when you get home do like we do quite simple make sure you hug your family hug your children they will feel better you will feel better i promise stay well be well until tomorrow good night all bye bye this has been investors edge with gary coltbaum on biz talk to listen to past episodes or to get in contact with gary go to gary k dot com that's garyk