Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - AS OIL GOES [05.20.2026]

Episode Date: May 20, 2026

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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host. Thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening, Wednesday, May 20th, 20th, 26.

Hope you having a good day. I want to thank Adam. Sorry, Han, for doing the show yesterday. I had, I was. doing the show up until around 3.30 and then sometimes things come up. But thank you to him. As always, lots to cover. Actually, two days to cover. But really, the outcome of today to cover. And of course, after the close, where the market just closed, a little company called NVIDIA that has like a five-point-something trillion market cap will be reporting earnings.

They never say anything bad. The numbers are going to be great. The last couple of times you had bad reactions, I have no guess except to think, I think it has a decent reaction. We'll see what happens. But lots to cover. First and foremost, how about those nicks?

Down 22. And you know what I was going to do? Make a live bet. I bet I would have got 30 or 40 to 1. And I looked to see if I can make one on this little whatever I do. And I couldn't find it so I couldn't do it. Anyway, but my Knicks 1-0, and that is like a dagger in the heart to win a game like that. We'll see how game 2 goes.

Also, well, we'll do it a little bit later. But we're going to have some pointed commentary. on some things, but mostly the markets. In case you don't know, this is serious talk on everything that affects you. We'll do the markets, the economy, your job, your industry, tariffs, war, corruption, and all that. And if you don't get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com, also on our X feed. If you don't follow us on X, just go there, put our name in, and you can follow it. us. And if you'd like to email us, just be nice. And boy, are we getting lots of emails?

You know why? Because there's lots going on. Okay. How do I put this best? The all-important semiconductor index, which has led the market. Thursday hit a high. of 12141, the low yesterday was 10,8,95. So you dropped 141, 1141, 1246 points in two and a half days, 10% approximately. Yesterday, you reversed. And where did you reverse from? We always talk to you about moving averages, how in bullish phases they get defended. The soldiers stand up and defend areas. The strongest moving average is the 21. After that, is the 50 day move and average. That one for us is somewhat of the end-all be-all. The 21 means you're very strong. Yesterday, the semiconductor index went right to it within a stone's throw and bounced

very well. And then today gaps up, finishes up 4.49%. You have gone from, and I'm not making this up, 10-8-95, midday yesterday to 11813 at the close today. And may I state for the record, the low yesterday was put in, actually earlier in the day. We'll call that 105, how about 9808? 18 points, let's call it 9% in a day and a half after dropping 10% in 2.5. What makes that happen? Well, first off, it's already had a big move. You get wild swings, lots of news. And I must tell you, when we hit the 21 day yesterday, I was like, man, this would be the spot. But in Viti reports tomorrow, And you think, oh, maybe it'll bounce.

Not only it bounced, it jumped. You're not back at the highs, but dang, strong moves. And it's the usual suspects, but add one. Arm holdings, a new yearly high, a big breakout today. Somebody said something about something and CPUs and GPUs and M-O-USEs. earnings were up 9% and market loves it. A-L-A-B, up 40%, not 40 bucks today. Somebody said something about that.

New Yearly high on that one. You got bounces. And to give you an example of moves, Micron goes from 819 to 650,000. two in five days, four and a half days, four days in an hour, back up to 732 in almost two days. That's been a stronger name. And I don't need to go through each and every one of them, but the semis, until they croak, I don't think the market croaks, though a lot of areas of the market are still weak, but something else happened today that is quite of note.

Oil prices tanked. Because of oil prices tanking, yields finally came down markedly, almost a stick. What do we mean by a stick? Closed at 4.572 on the 10 year. It was 4667 going into today. Why would yields go down if oil prices go down? Because the thought of inflation comes down. What was the news, rumors?

That is not just an album by Fleetwood Mac. That is what comes out of wherever every day about this, that, and the other thing with Iran. For the 50th time, and by the way, I don't believe that's embellishing. I don't believe it's hyperbole. I think it's been 50 times in the last four months the president said, they want a deal and we're close. I think one of these times he's going to be correct. It'll just be a matter of what the deal was.

But on that had a big drop and everything lifted except oils and defensive issues. But some other things went on today. but let's talk weakness. They bounced housing and housing related. Very weak. They bounced retail. Very weak. They bounced, even restaurants, very weak.

They bounced airlines, been very weak. They bounced other travel, been very weak. The weakest of the week, bounced because oil prices and yields mean a hell of a lot to these areas. Simple as that. But another component, and that's the big banks. So I believe we have been telling you that Bank of New York, Morgan Stanley are the two strongest. City Group was in that realm, but really came down pretty good, and Goldman was trying but couldn't. Well, here's the story on Goldman, which was up, by the way,

350 Dow points today. They are going to be the lead underwriter on the SpaceX IPO, which means a lot of fees. Combined with, we had a strong bank day, and Goldman was up $53 today, getting close to a five-month trading range breakout, which has me stopping. So I just want you to remember a couple things,

whether the Dow goes up big because of it or down big because of it. Goldman today was up 5.75%. It was approximately, give or take a few. 350 Dow points today. One stock. If Nike, another Dow stock, went up 5.75% today, it would be 16 Dow points. We'll explain that in a minute.

This is the one only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show, investors' edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting

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With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And what once again to Investors Edge. So a big problem we have with the Dow is you have one stock more than 20 times more important than another. Simple as that. That's all. Low-priced stocks are meaningless to the Dow.

When you have a Goldman that's almost a thousand and a Nike that's 44 bucks, they can move the same percentage and one means nothing. if Goldman went to zero, let's see, the Dow would lose about 6,400 points if Goldman went to zero. If Nike went to zero, be 286 Dow points. They need to fix that. Now, the thought process is, well, Goldman's earned it.

It's gone up throughout the time and Caterpillar's earned. it, that's 872. To me, it just makes no sense. Just as I understand how weightings are with NASDAQ 100, but eight stocks being 70% of the NASDAQ 100, 10 stocks being 35% of the S&P 500, I think they always got to play with it. But their thought process, and I guess I can get it because they want their index to do as good as possible, let's go with the strength and keep going with the strength. The problem with that is, what did they do? What stock that am I thinking of here? They replaced Exxon with Salesforce.com a few years ago. The Dow would be up a few more thousand points. if they kept Exxon because Salesforce.com is crashed,

but they wanted to put in the hot stock back then. That turned into not a hot stock. So again, whether up or down, just letting you know about the Dow. And that's why when we do our Dow scans, we pretty much start with Goldman and Caterpillar. And fortunately, they're strong. And guess what's weak?

are the lower price ones. They have less ability to move the Dow. And even the stocks that are $200 are less than a quarter of what the higher price does. So just letting you know, I just wanted to bring that up. Hope you don't mind.

But what was a rough a few days, very strong day today. Big bounce off of the 21 day on the semiconductors. I don't think anything NVIDIA says can really squash them. And there are a few that are weak. There are a few that were getting in trouble, but they all bounce pretty well today. I can tell you, Terradine getting very weak,

up 22 bucks today, about 6%. and yesterday we had terrible advanced declines. Today we had just the opposite. Recently we had very weak small in midcaps. Today had better small in midcaps because the broader market was better. So the story goes the semiconductors, other tech, software, which was getting a lead, pulling back now.

And remember, software was very weak. But in the world of software, and I must tell you, we saw them turning, but you never believe, just draw big you. That's what CrowdStrike has done. Very important software security name. There was news, I guess, two weeks ago or two and a half weeks ago or three weeks ago. Something about crowd strike and they're not going to be affected by AI and they're going to do a deal with AI and AI this, AI, that. And the stock has just use shaped from the outhouse to the penhouse and a couple of more when with it.

For me, wow. Gold and silver racked yesterday, bounce today, nothing going on there. Crypto, I can tell you that, you know, it's not just. Bitcoin, right? Ethereum busted down. Bitcoin started rolling over. It needs to get back, moving again, but not bounce today. Nothing going on there. Be careful there. But we went from the outhouse to the penthouse on advanced declines from yesterday, today, because of one simple reason. Oil prices plunge, which takes down yields and the thought of things in that with the Middle East or better. But I must tell you, at the same time, they're saying, oh, it's touch and go. And if we don't get what we want,

remember, we were a day away from attacking them. Remember that? Whatever. You know what I think about all that, right? Call it weird. conducting war by social media, I really don't understand, but it's to be expected these days. So we're waiting on Invidia. Again, the CEO will say nothing bad. The last two times the stock opened up and sold, I have no clue what happens this time. The stock has been stronger as of late, but pulled back about 10, 12 points in the last few days. We'll see what happens there.

the bigger story today was the broad market had a good day, and oil prices plunged. As I've always said to you, fundamentally, nothing good happens when oil and yields go up, nothing bad happens if oil and yields go down unless it's signifying a recession. And I can promise you, listen carefully, I know all the talk, the end of the world type talk, We don't have a real big any recession going on right now. We're not in the golden age. That's all BS. It's not the greatest economy ever.

That's all BS. But we're okay. Job market's not great. It's very spotty. Had some couple of good months, but mostly a lot of bad months. So nothing great there. We'll let you know if it gets a lot better. The housing market still stinks.

but when we say stinks, it's just normalizing from Mr. Bubble. In case you don't know, we now have a new Fedhead, this guy, Warsh. We expect him to be called a moron by the president the first time they don't lower rates. Up next, we'll continue along these lines. I'm Gary. This is the one only Investor's Edge. We're listening to.

America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with Dad. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him.

And walk once again to Investor's Edge. I think I've mentioned to you that I follow this guy, Craig Fuller. I can tell you, he's one of the brightest guys when it comes to trucking and rails and stuff. He thinks pricing's pretty darn good for the trucking business. And I can tell you the trucking stocks, they're not sizzling, but they're up near highs. They're doing pretty okay. For me, again, let me repeat, I think the economy's fine. I don't think it's spectacular.

I don't think it's fabulous. Again, golden age is BS. The president's great at saying, everything's the greatest. He's the greatest embellisher of all time. I wish he'd stop. But you know what? Politician's job is to market and lie about everything. I actually don't blame him.

And let's hope we get to the point where we do have a golden age. For him and his family, it's a golden age. I think that's what he's talking about. And we'll get into that a little bit. Okay, and Vidi reported, they beat by 12 cents. They beat revenues by about 2.5 billion. The stocks down, whoopi, do. It is down about $5 in the aftermarket,

but that's the initial move. It can be up $20 in five minutes or another $10 down for all we know. But those are great numbers year over year. I mean, fabulous numbers, but sometimes things are built in. and we'll see what it does for everything else tomorrow. And of course, you got all night.

And of course, you'll have the CEO do a conference call. And he is the greatest. By the way, this is a compliment. Greatest salesman of a company I have seen in a very long time. Greatest salesman of a company. God bless him. What a great success story. Great success story.

Magnificent. And I do want to let you know, I've been really studying up artificial intelligence. I still don't have a clue. You know, I've been reading up on it. GPUs and CPUs and energy this, and this moves that and this. And just so you know, I use, like when I go on,

oh, hold on, C's, they just gave guidance. Quarter to revenues between 89 and 92.8, billion versus 87.2 billion. So they actually raise guidance a little bit. But as I speak, the stock is still down a little bit. Nothing spectacular. Just remember it's had a decent move up recently. And we'll, again, we'll see overnight.

Anyway, I've been studying AI. And just so you know, I go on my phone. And again, I'll put in, let's see how to get to Salzburg from Vienna. I'm just doing this in real time. And you know, it comes up, you know, when you click on Search Assist, and I guess that's AI,

but I don't understand where it comes from. And it says you take the train for two hours, you know, and I go on this, you know, the AI and stuff. And for me, it's just a search engine, souped up some. But I know it's a lot bigger than that and more important than that. At least that's all I hear. I must tell you, I don't get it just yet. I don't understand.

And anybody geniuses out there can help me. I don't understand all these data centers being built, the size of Manhattan, My compatriot, I've been on Fox with Kevin O'Leary, Mr. Wonderful, is building a big one in Utah. How many data centers are we going to need and how much energy? And, you know, I'm trying to figure all this out, what it's all for. And again, I'm the first to admit it. I don't understand. And I must tell you, I keep reading more and more of it, and I still don't understand.

I hear things, oh, it's going to be able to detect cancer. It's going to be able to do this. By the way, Nvidia just went from, well, let's see. In the aftermarket now, it's down a buck. It was just down six bucks. It's only down a buck, which is, if I tell you, that would be great. Back on my point, I'm being told you, your kids. cancer. It's going to write. I was reading another one today that for one of these big hedge fund guys,

he says that his people that start for what takes them a year to do with algorithms and all that crap, AI can do it in days or less. And I have to tell you, I don't understand. I don't understand. and I'm trying to. And I keep reading and I'm trying to. I hope to figure it out. And then I'm reading about, I saw this 28 year old guy that's now a billionaire because he started this AI company

and it's still a startup, but he has these ideas and it's being bought. And I don't understand. And by the way, I'm not a doofus. I'm a pretty smart guy, but obviously smart on a certain level because I got to tell you technologically, I'm the doofus. I freely admit it. I call Adam up whenever I have a technological problem.

Yesterday I was having a problem with Zoom. Think about that. He fixed it up for me. Anyway, I'm just letting you know, and I hope to really get a great understanding of this. and forward and boy oh boy do I hope you know I was reading a couple things about pancreatic cancer somebody just got it two months ago and died in a month and now they're saying that AI can do something about pancreatic cancer if you if you can't that it's easier to catch and we can only hope we can only hope so

any of you geniuses out there on all this stuff, email me if you got something I can read up on because I'm pretty sure I'm reading up on all the important stuff. I'm pretty sure about that. I still don't understand it. I know on the surface what it does. I don't understand how you get to what I do to what they're telling me it's going to do. And I still don't understand how you're going to need all these data centers, the size of Manhattan or 10 football fields or whatever it may be. And Viti is now up a buck in the aftermarket. Because the guidance was pretty decent. And they didn't say anything untoward.

And of course, the CEO is yapping away right now. And that's that. Anyway, confessions of Gary on artificial intelligence. And by the way, if I tell you I have read a hundred hours on it, that's low. That's low. That is low for me. And I bet a lot of you have been trying to figure it out also, so don't call me a doofus. Let me call myself a dufus.

Anyway, back on markets, good day today. Could have been a bad day yesterday, but nice reversal off the 21 day for the socks. A crappy few days before that. And now Nvidia comes out and says what they said and stocked down initially. Now it's up two bucks in the aftermarket. And that's good news. And we'll see if it can go up more or go down and all that crap. What a success story.

What an unbelievable success story. And let's hope, let's just hope, oil prices continue down, yields come down, and we'll see if we can get off to the races. Led by the semiconductors, and maybe the financials get going, and maybe some down and out crap. can get going also. And when I say down and out, man, there are areas just terrible. Terrible action. Today a better day. And that's a little bit of that. And again, any you geniuses out there, let me know. I'm disgusted on some things. This is the one only investor's edge. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for?

One, two, ready, go. Action! Investors Edge with Gary Culper. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. You know, I said to you one of the greatest things a president has done in many decades is what President Donald Trump did coming into his second term. One of the greatest things a president has done coming into their second term. coming into their second term, is unwinding Joe Biden, who should have been impeached for what he did with our border.

I think he should have been impeached. I would have called for it. Opening up our border on purpose and lying to the American public for three and a half years until it got close to the next election where his poll numbers were, worse than Jock Itch and Root Canal and all of a sudden said, we got a border problem, but it's all the Republicans' fault. Donald Trump came in and whatever he did sealed up our border. Now, as you know, I'm for immigration. I'm completely for immigration. Controlled immigration.

Not just having the spigots opened up. Donald Trump sealed the border. Then he did the deportations, and that's where he went awry. And of course, he figured out he can't do what he was doing. His poll numbers went to nothing. Two people died that shouldn't have. And he realized, oh, wait a minute, hold on a second here. There's a lot of people that are losing workers.

So he changed that up. And in case you don't know, they're not deporting like they used to. And they're not going to. It's the greatest thing a president's done in decades. Donald Trump just did the worst thing I've seen a president do in decades. It disgusts me. And the problem is going forward. The precedent it is set.

Disgust me. You can go back to. Joe Biden pardoning his family as the precedent. And that's why I always say Joe Biden's the worst president ever, pardoning his family who were criminals, corrupt, self-dealing sleaze bags, all of them got pardoned. Let's fast forward to this president. It disgusts me that he made up a lawsuit against the IRS, who I guess divulged taxes or something while he was president the last time, sued him for $10 billion, and they made up a settlement through his own personal attorney, who is now the head of the Justice Department, and made up a $1.8 billion settlement that they get to

decide where the money goes. And they're saying it's going to go to those scumbags who attacked the Capitol who got pardoned by Trump, which disgusted me in the first place. And to make matters worse, the president also put into this document that government can never, ever look at him or his family going forward on anything they have done. Self-dealing, sickening, disgusting, and just lets the next one do it.

Corruption run amok. The Republicans should stop this dead-knit tracks, but they're scared crapless because the president got wins in the election yesterday. People he was against got busted out, even good people, and they're all afraid of losing. But this is terrible. And I don't care whether you're MAGA, Republican, Independent, you should be sick about this.

This is a banana republic. This is not of the people, by the people, for the people. This is Biden to Trump's self-dealing corruption. And now 1.8 billion of our tax dollars. And by the way, we're hearing, we're not going to be able to find out where they're going. And a bunch of nefarious pieces of crap are going to get a bunch of bucks.

Off of our asses. Off of a self-dealing corrupt deal. Anybody want to disagree? Come on. And I would say it to his face, but I couldn't anyhow. He wouldn't listen. We're now at that point that he doesn't care. Who knows what's next?

It's depressing. I don't even know what to say. I don't even know what to say. The message this sends to your children is the president is corrupt. is crooked. Oh, he doesn't know anything about it. And that means he's a liar also, because it's been directed by him.

That's all. We wish him well. We hope great things come from him in the next two-plus years, but you know where we stand. Integrity, honesty, just doing the right thing. And his first inclination, the big middle finger to us. No different than Biden, just on a much bigger scale.

On a much bigger scale. We'll stop there. NVIDIA is now down a buck and a half in the aftermarket. It was just up three. And by the way, a buck and a half to NVIDIA is huge in case you don't know. That all said, serenity now. We wish the president great health and great success. We really do.

We don't have TDS. We just like honesty. You'll have a great evening drive carefully when you get home, do like we do. Quite simple. Make sure you hug your family, hug your children. They will feel better. You'll feel better. But I promise stay well, be well.

Until tomorrow, peace out all. Have a good night. Bye bye. This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to Garykay.com. That's GaryKay.com.