Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Avoiding bear markets [09.25.2024]

Episode Date: September 25, 2024

https://garykaltbaum.com/

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Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host. A thanks of being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It is Wednesday. I'm pretty sure it's Wednesday, September 25th, 2024.

Hope you're having a good day. As always, we have lots to cover. serious talk on everything that affects you. No, no, no, no, no. Serious talk on everything that affects you. I always used to do markets here, but slowly but surely and then quickly, the Morlocks took over with debt deficits, illegal acts that we go to jail for, but they get, nothing happens to them, and the list goes on and on.

As we head to the election, very serious talk. We'll also do the markets, the economy, your job, your industry, scams and shams. And if you not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com. We'll also post it on our Twitter feed, which is now X. And if you don't follow us, I actually should. Go there, put our name in. And if you like to email us, all you've got to do is being nice. And I start, and I had no idea.

but in the last 20 minutes I have been listening to an economic speech, an economic plan from Kamala Harris. She's saying Trump sucks and that Trump doesn't care about people. He only cares about billionaires and millionaires. He only cares about lining his pockets while she will be for the people. Interesting. I was taught many moons ago to not listen to what people say, but watch what they do. Watch what the outcomes are from what they do. That's what I have been taught my whole life. Simplistic is that I cannot believe what I am listening to in this. this speech. I'd like to come up with a comparison or an analogy, but I'm not going to. I'm just going to state

she's a bigger liar than Biden, who is a bigger liar than Trump, and those were two gigantic bars to get over. If there is anybody in this country that has watched, With no bias, what they have done over the last three and a half years, it's me. The last three and a half years, we're just letting you know, did not happen. I just want you to know that. She's saying her plan is going to lower inflation. No, I am not making that statement up. three and a half years of gargantuan out of control spending and deficit spending,

which in part created the inflation that they said wasn't happening. And when it started happening, they said it was transitory. And then when it got really hot, they said it was Putin. And now she's telling us her plan will lower inflation. And we're supposed to listen to that. she also states that Trump doesn't care about the lower

income in middle class but Trump lowered taxes for the lower income in middle class while she is going to let the Trump tax cuts expire in 25 oh but she says no she won't oh yes she will

business they're bad. Oh, but wait, not all of them are bad. Oh, but they've been gouging. But who's gouging? Oh, we're not going to name them. I have never seen, and you can trust me or not, a more anti-business administration than the last three and a half years.

From the Department of Justice that's going after, Visa and Google, and stop the merger of JetBlue and Spirit. and that just taken out the mallet and pounding away at industry and companies on a daily basis and throwing blame on supermarket chains that have one to two percent margins. But she has a plan. Let me tell you who else I've studied. Maduro of Venezuela and Chavez before him who've died of cancer. Let me tell you what they did.

And no, there's no chance of her ever going as far. as Maduro has. No chance. There's much more checks and balances here, but let me tell you how it started. Maduro complained that to the people that they were being gouged by industry. His own words, vote me in. I'll be on your side. I just want you to know that's how it started. This woman echoes. Maduro of Venezuela. Again, no chance of ever getting that far. She also said her values have not changed. The values that put into place, if you shoplift $949, you're going to be okay, we're going to leave you be, but $950, we're going to charge you. So people, the criminals would walk into stores with a calculator, make sure. sure they didn't go over 950. Her plan, remember our plan, we the people, leave us to hell alone.

The government is the failure. Failure by $35 trillion they have overspent. The greatest bull market in history, the biggest inflation of all time is our government. And we don't know where the hell the money goes. We don't know who's benefiting. In California, they have spent, I can't unimaginable amounts on the homeless, and they can't even find the money, and they have more homeless than ever. A plan. Now, you know, Trump nauseates me also. His things with the tariffs now is sick. Oh, we're going to tariff you at 200%. Oh, dear, if you go make stuff, over there. We're going to 200% tariff you and you. That's insanity too. Hopefully that's just threats. But sheer insanity of proposals. But this, I haven't even got into her planned proposal.

Unrealized capital gains. Oh, but it's don't worry. It's just going to be on the wealthy. I have news for you. If they confiscated every dime from every billionaire in this country, that would be about five months of government spending. You think I'm kidding? Besides the Trump tax cuts go by, they want to raise taxes on corporations. So they can't compete as well internationally. They want to raise your long-term capital gains, disincentivying, holding long-term. They floated wealth taxes, and you know what?

I said they got rid of them. They're floating wealth taxes again. But don't worry. It's not going to be you. It's just going to be the wealthy. I'm ill. I'm nauseated. I'm listening to this speech, and I'm like, what?

What did she say? Three and a half years of massive government intrusion, spending, debt, deficits, inflation? I have a plan. I have a plan. What do we tell you about going to a doctor to put a cast on your right wrist

and he puts a cast on your left wrist? What do we tell you about Bill Clinton? Up next, we'll put a little bow tie on this nausea. I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management.

No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, will carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review.

The number to call is 888-4-2-5-59. That's 8-8-5-59. That's 888-4-22-55-59. Investment advisory services offered through call-bomb Capital, management. Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal.

A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomach ache every time that I eat. And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just, I have a stomachache every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeartRadio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts.

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So, trust me, or not trust me, I know these people like a book. I've seen them coming miles away. I have seen their scam and their con. I've seen it done in Venezuela and many other countries that have gone insane. and I've seen the other side of it. What's happening in Argentina now, in Italy now, what happened when Reagan took over that everybody lies about, well, they lie about.

They are control freaks. And they do it with massive spending, debt, deficits. They don't care what the number is. is, none of it matters. They will con you into believing that they have your back. Imagine wanting somebody who's running $2 trillion deficits and you want them to be a help to you.

Those are the people that are going to solve your problems. Social Security going bankrupt because they screwed that up. care going bankrupt because they screwed that up and didn't adjust for demographics. And this is who we want our help from. This is what's going to cure your ills. This is what's going to save you. She also said something about, we don't want you to worry. We'll worry for you.

What? Do you know what that is? That is Marxism slash socialism. What do we tell you here? What do we say to you? We're going to set the conditions for you to excel. Get to work. We're going to get out of your way.

We're going to have your taxes low, regulations that don't block you from being better. We are going to address the education system. and the reason why our math scores are so far down, we're going to speak to the schools that have been doing great things and how they got about them and there, and get the hell out of your way. Because you're the people. I wish I ran.

I'd be up double digits on her. I could not be Trump in a primary. He would blow my doors off in a primary, because he is so loved by that party. But if I did get through, I'd be double-digiting her because it's not hard to expose. Easy to expose. Simple to expose.

Numbers. $2 trillion deficits? Making sure the trajectory going forward is minimum. minimum $2 trillion? Really? I'm nauseous for all of us. And we're not telling you what to do. As you know, we have no use for either.

But this is taking us down a path. They're so lucky to have us, yet they abuse us. And in this whole speech, it was just general. Oh, we're going to give you $5,000 for this, we're going to give you $50,000 for that, we're going to give you $12,000 for this, we're going to give you $10,000 for that. How about going away? Get the hell out of our way. Leave us alone. You're the failures.

And Trump, we're going to tariff you 200%. No, you're not. Oh, we're going to tariff you 100%. No, you're not. We're going to force you to do this and force you. No, you're not. He worries the hell out of me. also. Why? From Monday to Tuesday to Wednesday to Thursday? Who the hell knows what's coming next?

But I do know under his four years, lower taxes and less regulations. I do know that. And that's Muay Importante. This one, higher taxes and much more regulations. I guarantee it. And I trust as far as I can throw. We segue. In the aftermarket, Micron, which the stock has been bludgeoned, is up $11 and something cents, about 11%, which is a good move. The number's a little better than expected,

and they raise the numbers for the following quarter. So the semiconductor stocks will be better. Research closed at 803. It's 833 in the aftermarket. KLA 10 core closed at 772 at 790. NVIDIA closed at 123. Invita is up a buck and a half. Invita was up two and a half bucks today. So semiconductors may start off pretty good tomorrow. They have been lagging. I got to mention that. We nibbled at NVIDIA yesterday

Half position We'll see what comes of it Looks like it wants to come up the right side Let's hope Needs work It's not in a new high The Dow was down 293 today But the NASDAQ was up seven

And the NASDAQ 100 was up 27 Meta finished up five bucks today was up 12. Late drop. They did some thing today when they spoke. And just nothing's zipping all the way. Still in shape. Notice that a Spotify, another new high.

So there are things working. We'll see what Nvidia does tomorrow. But the story today, and I have yet to scan, the Dow was down almost 300. And just noticing, listen carefully. Well, number one, I'll tell you where I wanted to start, the oils. That'll be up first, much more. I'm Gary.

This is the one only investor's edge. Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomach ache every time that I eat. And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just have a stomachache

every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change.

change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeartRadio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. When energy dips, your reviving routine deserves more than a quick fix. Reach for vital proteins collagen and protein shake and chocolate. With 30 grams of protein and 10 grams of collagen peptides, it helps support healthy healthy healthy health. hair, skin, nails, and joints in a smooth, ready-to-drink shake. So your afternoon reset actually sets you up for success.

Vital Proteins. Stay vital. Visit VitalProtines.com to get started. These statements have not been evaluated by the Food and Drug Administration. These products are not intended to diagnose, treat, cure, or prevent any disease. The world isn't getting any calmer. Economic instability, global conflicts, and record national debt have created an environment where financial uncertainty is a part of everyday life. And while none of us can control those forces, we can control how prepared we are

for them. Market swings are hitting retirement accounts and savings harder than ever, leaving many Americans wondering how to protect what they've built. That's why people are exploring physical gold and silver as a part of a broader strategy. These are tangible assets with a long history of being used when confidence in traditional markets waivers. They're not a promise of returns and they're not a replacement for existing investments. They're simply another tool to help diversify our portfolio. Preserve gold provides clear educational guidance to help you understand how precious metals can play a role in long-term planning, including options for holding them in an IRA. For your free wealth protection guide, text IHeart to 50505.

And with a qualified purchase, you could receive up to $15,000 in free gold or silver. Simply text IHeart to 50505. We're listening to America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on its feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb.

recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. Okay. Let me start with a few things of note. Oils. As you know, we've been on a void for a very long time. Except we've said every now and then the pipelines recently. A few of them have been strong. Before that, there were some refiners that were strong and then they went by the wayside. We're just letting you know. oils remain in a pretty damn good downtrend. And if you look at the XOP, which is the Explorers and production, that would be a classic bear market chart. And what do we tell you? There's not many better than us reading bare markets.

We have shown you that for years on radio. If ever the market itself looked like this chart, Oh, holy heck. But it's one of the main reasons we don't own any oils. If we did, we'd own those pipelines, but we're not because we believe in the hole. If the hole is in a bearish phase, why do I want to buy the few? And when I say the few, I mean the few. So when you have a chance, you'll be able to see tops out, the 50-day moving average starts descending.

every rally up into a descending 50-day moving average fails and series of lower highs all the way down until it ends. And it's still that way. So I just want to start with oils. And some are better than others. Some are stronger than others. I can tell you Exxon is much stronger than Chevron, which is stronger than Occidental, which is Buffett stock,

which we watch every day because we know eventually he's, going to be right he doesn't miss too often so we're just letting you know part of our process is hey we're not going to own oils now and it's not going to affect our performance we don't want to own anything in downtrends and we're always amazed when we get a transferred accounts in and there'll be stocks that are down 70 percent and the people that are told us don't worry we're diversified. And I'm thinking to myself, imagine if those people would recognize bare markets and not been in the stock that's gone down 70%

and was able to see the top in it and get the hell out of the way. Always amazed by that. So I just want to start with oils. I also have to mention Amgen in the Dowdown 18 today. By the way, with the Dowdown 293, I'm even going to give you an exact number. Duwop, doop. Let's see, 18.06 times 6.78.

That's 122 Dow points. But not only Amgen, regenerate another big biotech. That thing cracked badly this week. So I'm starting to, and biogen's been dead forever. I'm starting to wonder, oh, big biotech. Well, number one, anything. that tops out like that, I'm not going to be in. My main point is, market's little,

little weakening here. I want to know what I don't want to own. Then there's just going to mention bad reaction to earnings in Lenar and today, KB Holmes. Housing stocks have been pretty darn strong. We're now making note of that and seeing if any others, Follow suit. Hovenanian looks like it's topping out. So for me, and by the way, freely admit it, I think about three, four days ago, I was thinking about buying some housing. Well, not anymore. And then I'm just noticing a few other little things. And again, not necessarily bad. Not the end of the world. Sing a couple of big banks getting on the iffy side. as well as the regionals, which by the way, the KRE, which is the regional bank select industry index exchange traded fund, broke below the 50-day moving average today. Now, it did that about nine days ago and then had that big reversal day, but we now look like we may be following through. guess what I'm not going to own any of the regional banks that's how we roll and the same goes for any individual stocks that we look at I can promise you domino's pizza bearish phase we're not going to

own it we're just throwing a name out to you and the reason we're able to sidestep the bare markets and have in the past and we'll do our darn this again in the future. It's in the recognition of how things act and how things look with our eyes. We see it. I don't need an analyst to, hey, we are reiterating or by recommendation or adding this and a target of that. We couldn't care less. It is the patterns and the action and the fear and greed. that trace things out for us. Thus, we bring up the oils first. We had a nice rally in what?

Commodity stocks. But the question is, are they out of the bare phase? Amagnostic, we'll see what happens. China, with the big gap yesterday, as we mentioned, may be starting a real bull phase. Don't know yet. It got extended in one day. That's what happens to some of these foreign markets.

And we're going to watch to see how it plays out. Little minor pullback today. And as we go through each sector, and just so you know, there's 200 of them that we follow. And then some sub-sectors. And then there's countries, commodities, you name it. So I just want to start today because we're weaking a little bit, seeing some distribution, seeing some things that look like.

They're in trouble. Truckers, we haven't owned any truckers. Do you know why? They topped out in February and been crushed. No bare markets. No downtrends. That's it. Doesn't mean we don't lose money.

But when we lose money, it's because something's breaking out and it fails. Or maybe we bought a little too extended. I'm not going to name names, but I lost a little bit of money in a name that I paid a little too much extended. stopped out just a little bit below the pivot and the stock's been going crazy to the upside and I'm not in. Needless to say, I kind of curse myself out on that one every day I see it. But that happens. But the one thing we will not let happen is lose big and ride things down. And if you remember 22, what will we tell you all that through 2022?

as one by one, little by little piece by piece, things were breaking down. We were out of the way. So we just wanted to bring that up just because the oils were sticking out. The good news is there's plenty of things in shape. And now Micron may help the semiconductors, which are of import. We own the Nvidia. And if the semiconductors can get going, that would be really nice news.

That would be good news. so they'll be up a little bit in the opening tomorrow and see where it takes us the 10-year yield the number one question I've been getting the last few days how is the yields going up after the Fed lowered rates what have we told you they do not control unless they're printing money the longer term rates they control Fed funds in the shorter term rates and now the market is deemed that they're

longer fighting inflation so the inflationary yields are backing up a little bit not the end of the world but if inflation rears its ugly head again the 10-year yield is going to keep going up and then all of a sudden it'll be an uh-oh moment or if the yields start waking up one day and say where the hell is our debt that'll be the worst of all worlds because then they'll lose control. Up next, what else we got for you? Oh, that speech of hers. This is the one on the investors edge.

Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomachs, issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic

stomach aches. Like I get a stomachache every time that I eat and it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh yeah, you know, I just, I have a stomachache every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication, and then at that point we can probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeart Radio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts.

When energy dips, your reviving routine deserves more than a quick fix. Reach for vital proteins, collagen and protein shake and chocolate with 30 grams. of protein and 10 grams of collagen peptides. It helps support healthy hair, skin, nails, and joints in a smooth, ready-to-drink shake. So your afternoon reset actually sets you up for success. Vital Proteins. Stay vital. Visit VitalProtene's.com to get started. These statements have not been evaluated by the Food and Drug Administration. These products are not intended to diagnose, treat, cure, or prevent any disease. Economic headlines keep shifting, but the uncertainty remains. Market volatility, rising debt, and global tensions are affecting retirement accounts and long-term savings.

Americans are turning to physical gold and silver as tangible assets to help diversify their portfolios. Preserve gold provides educational guidance, including how metals can be held in an IRA. Get your free wealth protection guide when you text IHeart to 50505. That's IHart to 505. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go.

Action! Investors Edge. With Gary Culpe. On Amgen, they reported disappointing data or data for two drugs. I've never been a big biotech buyer, and I've missed out on some really good names throughout the years. It's just something about the placebo doing better than, well, certainly I have never been in one of those biotechs with no sales. and there's been a lot of them and a hell of a lot of disasters, may I state that for the record. But admittedly, I've seen some biotechs with no sales bought out for $3, $4, $5 billion.

And I've never understood that. And I really have not followed how they've made out with their drugs when they've been bought out. And I probably should have done that, but I never did. I just think the market is tough enough, very tough, let alone having to deal with something that has absolutely no sales whatsoever. Anything else sticking out today? Not a lot. The Dow. Caterpillar gave back eight bucks today. That's been rallying up off the China thing. actually has had a pretty good move recently Home Depot down almost four Visa down three

that's a little bit of the as we stated earlier the government's gone after them it's like tigers eating their young by the way we are not that is not a comment on whether Visa's done anything wrong or not we think companies that do things wrong

should be talked to. I don't think government should be antagonistic. If you think about it, visas this company that does $8,16, $25 billion in revenues. Think about that. And their whole business is for our government to see. It's not like they hide anything. Hey, this is what we do. so instead of suing them

why don't you sit down with them and tell them your concerns and try to work something out no we have to be big shots we've got to earn our keep so in the last let's see two days the stock has gone

from if I can get my fingers to stay in one place. Let's see. Let's call it $20. 36 billion of market cap. So 36 billion of shareholder wealth was lost in the last two days because our Department of Justice sticks their nose in. Even though here's a company that everything they do

is out there for everyone to see. You catch in my drift? Think about that. And therein lies the things that irk me. Now, if they can show Visa, hid something, okay. But how about maybe going after some of these congressmen and women and senators that are inside a training? How about that? Do you know Nancy Pelosi and her husband just sold?

like a million bucks worth of visa stock in the last couple of weeks. She had this information. Huh. You think any journalist ever asks her? I forgot that Republicans name a few weeks ago. Oh, it was classic. Classic trading on insider information. Where's the Department of Justice on that? making a point. And let me repeat, if visas done something wrong, let's go. But I ain't buying it. I'm not buying it. If they're worried about what they're charging, guess what? Your laws let them. And for those individuals out there, if you like paying 25, 28% on a credit card, that's on you. I'd suggest you listen to Dave Ramsey a little bit about credit cards and as you know I have stated to you

I've never paid interest on any credit cards so just a little tidbit kind of putting the pieces of the puzzle together because that speech from Kamala Harris what government's going to do for you just what we needed a failing industry, our government, running massive debt and deficits

and waste beyond the beyond is going to save your day. I should have run. And by the way, that's not sarcasm. Oh, by the way, this year's interest payments on our government is $1.24 trillion. Our whole federal spending in 2000 was $1.8 trillion.

You know where I get my Iyer from? Thus why we will be having a podcast soon on the weekend covering all this. Just have to, as you know, dealing with mom and dad 92 and 91.

Father could be 93 October 20th and that's taken a lot of time, a lot of effort. A lot of help. But we will be covering more and more because there's too much bias on both sides. That all said, we'll be on Varney & Company 10 a.m. hour tomorrow, Fox Business Network, check us out. And until tomorrow, the radio show, you have a great evening drive carefully.

When you get home, do like we do quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise. Stay well, be well. Serenity now. Good night. This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on Biz Talk.

To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. Success starts with your drive. An American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey.

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