Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - BAD START TO YEAR [01.03.2024]

Episode Date: January 3, 2024

https://garykaltbaum.com/

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seriously. Hello all. Hope you having a good day. I'm Gary Coltbaum. This is Investors Ed. Serious talk on you and everything affects you with the markets, your money, the economy, unemployment, taxes, deficit spending, scam, shams, corruption, and the lion sacks coming out of Washington, D.C. We will cover it all today, as we usually do. And again, live, not in color because we're radio, we have walked you through the potential and now potentially the reality. Can you have potentially reality? a market top of unknown consequence, stocks topping of unknown time and price.

And we do it through our exhaust of scanning and recognition of the market and what bull and bear look like, what tops and bottoms look like. And little did we know. Because we really don't. When we say to you, uh-oh, when we say to you, Tappy, we don't know if it's going to turn into something, but we know the signals. We know the potential.

We know when there's a possibility. And December 20th started it. Remember, that was the day we came on the show. Out of nowhere, the market tanked 500 points on the Dow and said, this is the first time we saw institution selling. a bunch of whatever's on the tube were telling us, oh, it's just options related. Yeah, right. But it was end of the year. And what did we do?

Nothing really bad happened until the end of the year until the Friday before the end of the year when the NASDAQ was coming in. And we used the simple term December 20th shot across the bow. That's the term. and what it is is just like, remember the signal on November 1st, when we said to you, this looks like a confirmation day that could turn the market up and little did we know it would soar because we don't know how strong a move is going to be or how bad a move is going to be, how long it's going to last. but as the cards come out of the deck,

we get a pretty decent understanding. So then we walk through to the end of the year, and I will tell you, the semiconductors, went above the highs of December 20th. Some other things edged above the highs, but not by much. And then came Friday. The day before the three-day weekend on New Year's.

The day before Thursday, we were on this show saying, just letting you know, things are starting to act mushy. And we define mushy as, you know, a few things starting to go by the wayside. That's how we defined it. And then came Friday, we got mushyer, whatever that means. And all that meant, yeah, things worsened a little bit. Nothing bad.

We sold our Apple that week because Apple gave us the signals that something was up. We weren't sure. And it's Apple. It's Apple. How can anything be bad? And then we walked into the new year.

And the best way we can describe it, is those stair steps. We did a little bit of this yesterday. We're going to do it again today. Bullish phases are made up of two steps up, one step down in price. Sometimes two steps up, one step down, and that step stays there for a while, and then you go two steps up again. It's not like it's 2-1, 2-1, 2-1, 2-1, it could be 2-1, and then 2.

and that's how we define bullish and bearish phases. The other part of the equation is moving averages. What you want to see is moving averages held on any weakness, any pulling back. And we use our own moving averages that we like, that we think work better than others, and other people are different, and that's okay. To us, the end all, be all, the big matzo ball is the 50s. day moving average, but sometimes you get a real strong market. We use the 21 day moving average. Not the 20, the 21. Don't ask. And yesterday, we just had a lot of names. Instead of 21, got

one two. Weaker names breaking down. Weaker names breaking the 50 day moving average. Weaker names are weaker than that breaking down. And then what did we tell you yesterday? just let you know advanced declines or a horror show today which means the market deteriorated today pretty well

and when we did our scan of 1,500 to 2,000 names we were like wow which takes us to our little 100 stock example we have this thing that we do for you

since we're on radio and can't show you imagine if 100 stocks make up an index. If you hear some gulping, I'm drinking some water. Imagine if 100 stocks make up an index. And each one is worth a percent.

In other words, equal weighted. And imagine they're all in uptrends. Defineable uptrends. And you have to assume we know what a good definable up trend is. And then all of a sudden 10 top out. and start going into possible downtrends, possible. Because you don't usually go from uptrend to downtrend, usually top out for a bit and roll over.

But let's assume it turns into 90-10. Well, the indices should still do well, 90, up, 10 down. But what if it goes to 80-20 and 70-30 and 60-40 and 60-40 and 50-50? and imagine if the 50 that were an uptrend stopped going up and flatline while the other 50 keep going down. Well, the indices are going down. And imagine if you're smart enough to gauge that stuff. And imagine if you're smart enough to know, well, wait a minute here. All this is going on.

We're losing a bunch of stocks. The market may be changing. Well, that was yesterday. So December 20th, we gave a little warning shot. The Thursday before the end of the year, we started telling you things were mushy and got mushy a Friday. Yesterday, we tell you things really deteriorated yesterday. A lot of things breaking support levels. A lot of red.

What do you think happened today? You think it turned around? it got smacked in the face again today. And we already did a webcast for our peeps at noon today to show how many more stocks did what we call roll over. In other words, breaking the upstairs steps, breaking the trend. All we need to tell you today is you had more deterioration. more trouble, more breaking of support levels, more stocks going on to the negative side of the equation, and we'll see what tomorrow brings. We also told you yesterday all the money flows

were going into the defensive areas, recession resistant, food, drug, beverage, tobacco, household products, utilities, medicals, things like that. Eli Lilly up 25 today. Amgen was up, McKesson was up, Molina Health was up, United Health was up. It's on. Up next, we'll continue. I'm Gary. This is the one only Investors Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people.

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you could receive up to $15,000 in free gold or silver. Text IHeart to 50505 today. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop.

You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.APUS.edu. One sweet, melty bite of a Hershey's bar, and suddenly I'm right back sitting on the front porch with my grandmother on a slow summer afternoon. She doesn't say much, just breaks the bar in half and hands me a piece. I open my mouth to say, whatever a nine-year-old. wants to say. And she replies with a low, listen. So we sat there.

Listening. That was the first time I learned that quiet can feel full. Hershey's, it's your happy place. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum.

It doesn't get better. So, we are letting you know just a bunch more deterioration today. With yields down. Whoa. Now, what have we told you about that? There's been a direct correlation between yields and the market. Yields down, market up. Yields up, mark it down.

Well, yields were down today and the market still got crunched. That brings us to our next point is, if the market ever keeps going down while yields are staying down, then it's going to start looking at the economy. And as you know, we are worried about the economy. We don't care what anybody else says. They had some yachts from the IMF today come out and say, oh, soft landing. Kiss mine.

You have a soft landing with $2 trillion deficit? Are you kidding me? Give me a break. Oh, the Fed's engineered. Fed doesn't engineer squat. They're backbenchers. They're third string quarterbacks. They're so far.

behind when they cause the inflation? They're so far behind the market now. They don't matter. They get too much credit. And there's too much talked about. The free markets have done the job. They should be fired, canned, destroyed. Not destroyed.

I take that back. Fired, canned. And the Fed destroyed. The Fed themselves out. Goodbye. History. They do nothing for nobody. They screwed you with savers.

They created monstrous bubbles that popped. They created the 3-8. Hey, you get a 3% mortgage, but who the hell wants to sell a house now? Even though mortgages are back down under 7, that's the good news. So all we can tell you is just a lot more deterioration. And just so you know, all this was in our little offer at the end of the year. we put out this webcast that defines bull and bear markets what they look like how they top how they bottom

how they go through the motions with moving averages and we said if you want that go to bgcccf.org boys and girls clubs of central Florida donate 20 bucks and I'll send it to you we'd rather you do 50 or 100 or 1,000 but I'm nice

we made it 20 BGCCF.org So we're just letting you know A, we sold our Apple last week, we sold our tech we're left with a little bit of this, that, and our biggest worry

you know, the hope is we have a normal correction. And in case you don't know, the NASDAX down what? 4% from the high? Whoopi, do. It is normal to have 10% to 15% corrections in the NASDAQ after a big move, which it had last year, though very narrow. But you need to know that 10, 15% will be nasty.

And then you never know does it turn into more. And that's my thought. Not a prediction, not an interpretation, but a thought. These markets don't seem to have any in-between. And I worry about not having an in-between on the way down. And I could tell you flat out, they're busting some stocks up. There are some stocks that have been busted up in just the past since December 20th with the holiday. So today, let me be clear about this.

they kicked the retail in teeth, economically sensitive stocks they kicked in the teeth, semiconductors again they kicked in the teeth today, transports, they kicked in the teeth today, industrials they kicked in the teeth today, auto dealers they kicked in the teeth today, restaurants they kicked in the teeth today, and not as much, but financials came in pretty good.

What do all those things have in common? Economically sensitive. So I'm thinking to myself, yields were actually down today. The Fed had their Fed minutes, but that don't matter. Oh, gee, we're going to tell you what we said a month ago. Blah, blah, blah. All we know is economically sensitive was smack to heck today while Amgen was up.

Johnson and Johnson was up Merck was up Verizon was up Ab V was up Lily was up big McKesson was up Melina Health was up Novartis was up

United Health was up What are those? Oh recession resistant What does recession resistant mean? It's the things that You kind of need What do you need? Well you got to eat

Your kids are going to need diapers Right Sigs You crazy people that smoke sigs manage care eight MOs they get their money no matter what so just let you know it worsened and the numbers down 284 on the Dow 38 on the S&P 173 on the NASDAQ 175 NASDAQ 100 270 on the transports advanced the clients sucked there were more new lows than new highs on the NASDAQ today which is quite amazing and I'm trying to figure out some words here I just

review we did what we had to do here and we'll do whatever we have to do going forward we don't mess around we hope that this is not a all-or-nothing move like we just had up it's like an all-or-nothing move up amazing move up plowing in now plowing out and all I can tell you when I do my webcast tonight for my peeps, all I'm going to be showing are names that cracked, whether off highs, mid-level, low-level, moving average breaks, you name it, we're going to show it. They topped out, I can tell you, they topped out the airlines, they topped out the cruise lines. as I'm going through retail

a lot of the housing related Home Depot lows restoration hardware and the like so stay tuned December 20th was the little kickoff

it was just as we said a shot across the bow well they're sending in a few more now if anything changes I'll let you know it didn't change today it got a lot more icky today and the other part of the equation

ladies and gentlemen is sentiment how are the masses feeling as we told you everybody was lathered up because you had a good two months at the end of the year no doubt a good two months a great two months

up next sentiment news of the day much more this is the one only investors at volatility is hitting retirement accounts and savings across the country. More Americans are exploring physical gold and silver for added diversification during unpredictable economic periods. Preserve gold offers straightforward education

on how precious metals can be included in NIRA. Text IHeart to 50505 for your free wealth protection guide and with a qualified purchase, you could receive up to $15,000 in free gold or silver. Success starts with your drive. An American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward.

Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.APUS.edu. One sweet, melty bite of a Hershey's bar, and suddenly I'm right back sitting on the front porch with my grandmother on a slow, summer afternoon. She doesn't say much, just breaks the bar in half and

hands me a piece. I open my mouth to say whatever a nine-year-old wants to say. And she replies with a low, listen. So we sat there. Listening. That was the first time I learned that quiet can feel full.

Hershey's, it's your happy place. You're listening to. America is talking. Investors edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is Just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Coltbaum.

It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. So, the biggest bear on Wall Street turned bullish like 10 days ago. And he's been bearish all the way up. Off the lows. And we're not going to name names and we're not trying to rib on anybody. We're just letting you know sentiment. Because most people are bulls.

bullish. The estimates, the predictions for 2024 are much higher than they were months ago. And the list goes on and on of bullishness, froth, speculation, crazy moves in crypto. All of a sudden the crypto people are geniuses when a year ago they were on Maylocks and couldn't sleep at night. And now we'll just pay attention to the markets. And tonight what will be showing simply hundreds and hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of stock that broke their uptrends. Some worse than others. Simple as that. And we'll show also areas. And we're also going to show what ain't going down. Because it's easiest to isolate strength when the market's weak. Simple as that. And ain't much left except defensive areas.

Now, where it stops, we absolutely positively do not know. But we'll stay on top of it because we ain't messing around. And as we've told you fundamentally, fundamentals, we're really worried about the debt and this lopsided doofus running the country, which we'll get into in a minute. that's an apropos way to describe a lopsided doofus who he and his administration I now believe has taken away the championship belt on bull crap from the last guy and that is one heck of a high bar to get over because that last guy I had to verify

every freaking thing the guy ever said and to this day lies out as you know what on a daily basis and we'll get to that in a minute so I wish I had better news to tell you I'd rather have the market go up but my job is to interpret and man oh man action is about as icky

as icky can be but I am seeing articles Apple lost a hundred billion in market value in one day more than combined worth of Ford and GM. So all of a sudden they're reporting apples going down. Gold. Ain't nothing good going on there. Try to break out isn't and the gold miners are just much worse than the gold. Simple as that. Just letting you know. Why? You're getting a little bit of strengthening in the dollar. Gold goes down and I really hope we get a strength in the dollar because I'm going

to Europe in 10 days. And by the way, we will be working from there. And we will be doing the show from there. Not every day. You'll have my buddy Adam, who's excellent at this. By the way, as I'm doing the show, I'm scanning and I'm putting down more and more names that are breaking. Let's put it that way. And we move on to the news. Speaking of the doofus, you know, so frustrating. I think I've said this to you many times before. I would love to come on to this show and talk good about our leaders. I really would. I really would. President Biden, when asked about the border and the record numbers by far of people getting across the border said, talk to the Republicans, they're not giving me enough money. This is your president in the United States,

the leader of the free world, who's running a $2 trillion deficit this year, who gave $380 billion of our tax dollars to a Democratic hack named John Padoz Desta to dole out on the word climate. And I guarantee you all the buddies are opening up corporations in Delaware, S-Corp's, for green energy bull crap and filing for grants which you never have to pay back on our wallet he don't have enough money to do anything about immigration

Homeland Security, Majorcas, another dofus. By the way, I don't care. The president of Homeland Security, I'd say it to their face because they're pissing me off so much. was asked about the immigration numbers. I am not making it up by telling you he blamed it on climate change. Well, the climate's so bad in some of these countries that they... But I thought climate was bad here also.

Why would they come here? These impotent, imbecilic, moronic, human waste, and liars of... of epic proportions. I really don't know what their goals are, but they're not my goals. That's what you got out of your administration today on what's happening at the border, which, by the way, they have this thing called gotaways. It's just what it says, a gotaway.

They don't know where some of these people are, and they have no clue if they're bad. Do I need to go further? That was today on immigration. So just letting you know, I got nothing good to say about them. I wish I could, but more and more dofessness and lies. And the bad market today. I have absolutely no clue what the market does tomorrow.

All I can tell you, it deteriorated more today. There are more and more we call chart breaks, which makes it tougher to recover in the near term, not in time, but in the near. And the more and more it worsens, the more and more it's tougher to get back going again. And I say this, what are we down 4%? We're down measly 4. It just tells you how underneath the surface quite often the average stock will be much better than the index. And much worse. And need I say more, we're getting some of the much worse right now.

And as I just continue to scan, just wow, just big wow. More and more names. Break it. We'll need a nice little stand here in the next few days. Now, I'm being asked, Gary, they say if the first few days of the January is, Bad, it's going to be a bad year. Don't listen to that. October 29th, the market looks like it was going to crash.

And look what it did in the two months. You just don't know. We'll just take it one step at a time. Be smart about it. Protect capital when capital needs to be protected. And when things are ripe, go at it. That's all. What more can I?

tell you earning season in two to three weeks starts off with the financials which by the way have been acting just fine they pulled back today they got hit a little bit but they act much better than other things and by far the culprits right now technology and today everything economically sensitive, discretionary spending type stuff. We'll see what happens tomorrow. I'm Gary. This is the one that only investors,

if you've been following the news, you know the world is dealing with a level of uncertainty that isn't going away anytime soon. Inflation pressures, global tensions, and the highest U.S. debt levels on record continue to influence markets day after day. And the result is familiar to anyone checking their retirement balances or savings accounts. Volatility has begun.

become the norm. In times like these, people often look for ways to strengthen their financial foundation. Physical gold and silver have served that purpose throughout history. They're real assets that exist outside the digital and financial systems that tend to fluctuate during economic stress. They're not a guarantee and they're not a shortcut to wealth, but they can offer diversification when things feel unpredictable. Preserve gold is committed to helping Americans understand their options with simple educational information, including how precious metals can be held in an IRA. protection guide, text IHeart to 50505. And with a qualified purchase, you could receive up to $15,000 in free gold or silver. Don't wait. Text IHeart to 50505. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it.

With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a life. long passion. Our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU. APU. APUS.edu. One sweet, melty bite of a Hershey's bar, and suddenly I'm right back sitting on the front porch with my grandmother on a slow summer afternoon. She doesn't say much, just breaks the bar in half and hands me a piece. I open my mouth to say whatever a nine-year-old wants to say. And she replies with a low... Listen.

So we sat there. Listening. That was the first time I learned that quiet can feel full. Hershey's. It's your happy place. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for?

One, two, ready, go. Investers Edge with Gary Culper. And what once again to Investor's Edge? Not a lot today came out on the Israel front. But I must say a little bit yesterday. The Harvard president resigned, which means you was fired. When you're allowed to resign, that means you were fired. But that doesn't matter.

The Harvard president is no longer. But I have to tell you, the problem with schools right now, you know what the word meritocracy means. You know, you get rewarded on merit. Merit. You do good versus not doing good. So here's this woman who's miserable failure, along with the two other women in protecting their students. I've never met her, but she certainly has shown that she doesn't give a crap about the Jewish community.

She showed it when all the heads, the lights were on, where she had plenty of time to prepare to answer a simple question. while at the college, if you forget somebody's pronoun, you get censured, fine, expelled, castigated. But if you call for the death of Jews, well, it depends on the context. So she's a miserable failure in that. Miserable failure at leading. The same with the other two women

at the other two colleges, one of them resigned. The other one's still there. The other one that resigned stayed on faculty. This one resigned, as they say. She's staying on in a faculty manner, whatever that means. And getting paid $900,000 a year. They're going to pay her the salary for failure, 900,000 a year.

And not making this up, both she and the board of the school blamed it all on racism. Yes, we are pissed because she's black and she's a woman, not because she's an anti-Semite, anti-Jew, and by the way, we found out after the fact big-time plagiarist. And who shows up, Al Sharpton. You know, he once called Jews Heimis. That's a person we want out front and center talking about racism, don't we? He's created a industry of race baiting.

And boy, they love him. He's out there saying racism. I was hoping this was going to be a wake-up call for our schools. I was thinking it had to be a wake-up call for our schools. I now don't think it was a wake-up call. I think they're laughing it off because they're so flush with billions. They don't care. I don't think they care.

I never believed a lot of this was going on, but we see it every day. I mean, you got these racist ninkum-poop. and it's a minority, even though they're very loud and vociferous, blocking airports? How the hell are they not being arrested for terrorism? No, really? Anything happening to these people? So I worry about our justice system also. We've talked about that before.

And what does this all have to do with everything we talk about the economy? Well, if you block airports and people can't get to their flights, that affects the economy, does it? If they beat the crap out of Jews because they have a kosher deli and then they break the windows, then that hurt the economy? I can go on and on. Because it's becoming, would you say widespread? I can't say widespread, but spreading. So we're going to have to unfortunately keep bringing this stuff up until we get somebody in the White House that means business

because this guy is just the doofus. And no, that doesn't mean Trump. I don't want him either. But if I had to make a big bet right now, and we don't know what's going to happen with his trials and stuff. but if I had to make a big bet, he's the chalk. And he scares the living crap out of me too. Because I worry about motives and agendas.

And if you don't know by now, he's got some weird motives and agendas. All right, let's wrap it up a little bit and just tell you, more deterioration and market going more defensive. Money flowing into the most defensive recession-resistant areas in the market coming off of the risk on. And just a matter of, just so you know, we had the bad 20th of December, but that really didn't kill anything. You had a little drip Thursday and Friday before the end of the year in just two days.

You'll have to trust me when I tell you, there's just a lot of crap, a lot of names, breaking, breaking trends. Now, most of them are on the short-term front. you don't want to hear me come back and say it's now getting more intermediate. We're not there yet, but certainly heading a little bit towards there. Again, wish I had better news to tell you, but leave no doubt. Institutions are in the mood to sell right now. The move up looks like too far too fast, but man, oh man, they are coming in on some things right now.

and remember what we told you about earnings. We've been worried about earnings that they haven't been that great and something's going to have to give. If earnings don't get better, well, we'll see. Anyway, have a great evening drive carefully. I'll be on Fox Business tomorrow, 10 a.m. hour

with Stuart Varney, check that out. Until tomorrow's same time, you have a great evening drive carefully. When you get home, do like we do. Quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. and they will feel better. You will feel better. I promise. Thanks for joining everybody.

Hopefully a better day tomorrow. Have a good night. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. Success starts with your drive. An American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills, and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion,

our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at apu.apus.edu.edu. Today, we're exploring deep in the North American wilderness among nature's wildest plants, animals, and cows? You're actually on an organic valley dairy farm, where nutritious, delicious, organic food gets at start.

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