Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Bear Holiday PART2_11.29.2024 FRIDAY after THANKSGIVING

Episode Date: November 29, 2024

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This is part two of our educational series. Part two of the big bear markets. and its characteristics and the reactions. In part one, we talked to you about how markets top and price, and how many stocks, and which stocks, and sectors, and reactions. But we only took you to the point of the major indices, not in what they call on Wall Street, bare market territory yet.

you see there's always hope to these people and the last thing we told you in part one of this series is that bare market rallies are sharp they're quick they make you feel good they get people talking about them

they suck you in and bury you soon after bare market rallies are sharp and vicious. You get monstrous moves over a few-day period as you get short squeezes, only to fail. So we also talked about how the 50-day moving average is heading down now, how people losing just a little bit of hope. But knowing this has happened before in the last 10 years, we're good. But to us, we're just looking for characteristics, not opinion. And most stocks now are in downtrends.

Leading stocks have been squashed. We'll get to that in a little bit. Instead of people just calling it a correction, they're calling it a good correction. They're still telling you it's cheap and it's a value and if you own stock 20% higher, you've got to own stock here. And if you sell now, you're selling too late. Believe me, we've been listening to them for many years. But the market had something else in mind.

something different in mind. It's a bare market. No, a real one. So what you need to know now is the other part of the 50-day moving average that is so vital since price is now below

the 200-day moving average, which is now flattening out because it's slower. In a bull market, all pullbacks, pull back into the ascending 50-day moving average in and around it,

sometimes undercutting it a little bit, but eventually just turning back up. The 50-day moving average is ascending and price is moving along that 50-day. And on so many occasions, you will find stocks that live above it for a year and touch it almost to the penny a few times. and as we stayed in the first go-round

it is when the break of that 50-day happens a stock trades above it for a year and breaks it usually a break of importance and when you see so many going along with it usually breaks of importance but now we're farther along in the bearish market bear market whatever you want to call it

downtrend correction nasty correction Well, in a bull market, if price is contained on every pullback of an ascending 50-day moving average, what do you think bear markets look like? It's simple. We now have price bouncing up into the descending 50-day moving average. average and failing every time, give or take a little bit. Sometimes it'll rally above it for a couple of days, but always failing. And is there a way of knowing it's going to fail? Well,

there are a few things you can watch. Volume. If volume is weak and anemic on the move, if there's no follow-through at the 50-day. But more importantly, if you did not see enough time, a bottoming process and you just have sharp moves up, it's usually a fake-out. Bottoms of bare markets usually take time and usually take price in and around those same areas. You hear terms of double bottoms and triple bottoms. Quadruples. What that means is

price will go down to a level, rally up, go down to the level, hold, rally up, go down to the level, hold the third time, and then finally turn up. That's how you'll know. So let me repeat this very important characteristic. In bull markets, price will pull back into an ascending 50-day moving average and then continue the ascension. In bare markets,

price will rally up into a descending 50-day moving average, fail there, and continue its dissension. And of course, Every day we're doing our scans, every day we're looking for what we call changes. How many times have we said to you, if anything changes, we will let you know.

And then, an easy way to know if we're in a bare market, your stocks keep going down, regardless of what your broker tells you. And they go down again. and they go down again. And it weighs on you the more we go down because you had a chance to sell on the initial break of the 50

day. You had a chance to sell as a lot more things were weakening. You had a chance the cell breaking the 200 day but now you get what we call into the web. It's the psychological

web of man my account's down 24%. I'm not selling now. Little do you know there's a lot more to go. Oh, my account's down 28%. I'm not selling now. And of course, Wall Street's telling you, the usual,

the same thing they told you when the market was down 5%, the same thing they told you when the market was down 10%. Same thing they were telling you the market's down 15. Same thing they're telling you when the market's down 20. Never sell. Think long term. but they forget and forgot or don't want to tell you. Other characteristics of bare markets

because they don't want to tell you those other characteristics. For some reason, well, we know what the reason is. Wall Street wants you to just stay in and think long term. And I must tell you, since it's mid-August 2019 as we do these. two educational shows on bare markets, they've been right throughout the years. Or have they been right throughout the years? Because in every bare market, one of the main characteristics are past leaders will get killed. And many names will go by the wayside. They forget. to mention that and you're not going to want to miss it. That's up next on this, the one and only

Investors Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be,

call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-22-559. That's 888-4-22-5-5-9. That's 888422-5-5-9. Investment Advisory Services offered through Colbomb Capital Management. Hello, hello. I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of Smart Talks with IBM. I recently spoke with IBM's new director of research, Jake Embatta.

We discussed his vision for the future of quantum computing. At IBM research, what we always do is answer what is the future of computing, whether it's coming up with new algorithms, coming up with better AI, coming up with quantum, or coming up with just how do different accelerators go together? It's our DNA to answer the question of what is the future. Isn't it a perfect problem for IBM because you kind of need to have a legacy of building stuff?

Yes. Building actual physical machines. Yeah, it's why I came to IBM. I wanted the experience, the culture of building hard things that others have not done before. Where do you imagine we are in the timeline of this technology? There will come a point when it will mature. Right?

Yeah. My cell phone is a mature technology at this point. How far are we from that point with Conton? By 2029, we'll build the first fault-tolerant quantum computer. That is one that can run a very, very large, large problem. To learn how IBM is building the future of computing, visit IBM.com slash quantum. Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the Script,

the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating.

chronic stomach aches. Like, I get a stomach ache every time that I eat. And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just, I have a stomach ache every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive.

We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation plus some fascinating, Fiting Facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeart Radio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. On Deck is built to back small businesses like yours. Whether you're buying equipment, expanding your team, or bridging cash flow gaps, On Dex loans up to $400,000 make it happen fast.

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and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. What once again to investors says?

as we continue with part two of our educational series, these two parts on bare markets. So we were just telling you, there are characteristics of bare markets you need to know about. Very important ones. Because you know what we hear from Wall Street? We have 100 years of history, and we're doing this show in August of 2019,

and the down when S&P are down 5, 6% of small and midcaps are down, it may be 11, 12%, foreign markets worse, but we've seen it before. But just to amuse you and amuse us, please listen, just in case we ever get a real bear market again, which we guarantee

you will happen. They forget to tell you about Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns, Merrill Lynch, Wachovia, countrywide financial, city group, which by the way is still down 90% from the highs of the high.

They forgot to mention from the year 2000, Nortel Networks, or Lucent, or WorldCom. You know, these names I am mentioning are go-to big-cap names that all went by-bye. There are hundreds more that they don't want you to remember. But we can promise you this. In the next bare markets that we have throughout the rest of history, we're going to see a lot more of that because the world changes. Companies change. Technology companies become obsolete.

Have you noticed recently what the retailers have been doing? Have you noticed Macy's? Macy's. We're not talking about. Sears Holdings and Kmart here. We're talking Macy's. All these retailers are being obliterated. Why? The world changed. Online changed the world. So we must recognize from bull to bear markets, massive change happens. And some of the greatest stocks of the prior bull market get destroyed. in the bear market there have been studies done on average past growth leaders will drop 70

percent we are not making that number up how can that be gary how could these big leaders drop 70 percent it's simple because in the bull market they were big leaders and greatness only lasts so long and as companies grow bigger and bigger, something always eventually happens. Growth slows. And when growth slows, the stock slows and tops and the market recognize it.

And since these stocks were so over-owned and over-love, they were also over-leveraged so that margin has to come off and all that's left to do is sell. So these people just telling you think long-term, fine but you better think long term with things that continue to work

long term because you never know I your host if somebody told me in 2006 that by 2009 Merrill Lynch and Lehman and Countrywide

and Wachovia and Bear Stearns would be gone I would have laughed in their face. So you need to know this. And not listen to people. Listen to price. Next, the rules completely change in bull and bear markets. In bull markets, things are forgiven.

Valuations can go nuts. Companies with 10 million in revenues can trade at $5,000. billion dollar market caps. Fake meat companies with 200 million in sales can have 15 billion dollar market caps. And they lose money. Bull markets are about greed and froth and speculation. Bull markets very often have valuations thrown out the window. And all it's about,

Is people buying at any price and any valuation? Just in hopes that somebody's going to pay a higher price for their stock. And yes, we can spend a few hundred hours with examples on this. Bear markets are the exact opposite. While bull markets are about greed, froth, speculation, bare markets are on fear. and the continued building up of fear. And because of that fear,

the curtains will come down on valuation. Valuation returns back to the norm and any company, losing money, will get squashed. Any company, Gary? Any company. How do we know this? the study of bull and bear markets throughout history.

If you ever have a chance to study the charts from 08 or 2000 to 03, you would not believe how far down things went on average stock. Now know where we're saying the next bear market's going to be like that, but there's a chance there is. but even a 25 to 30% sustained bear market will do massive damage. Up next, characteristics of a bear market. We have more. That will be up next on NISTI investor's edge.

Hello, hello, I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of Smart Talks with IBM. I recently spoke with IBM's new director of research, Jake Mbata. we discussed his vision for the future of quantum computing. At IBM research, what we always do is answer what is the future of computing, whether it's coming up with new algorithms, coming up with better AI, coming up with quantum, or coming up with just how do different accelerators go together. It's our DNA to answer the question of what is the future. Isn't it a perfect problem for IBM because you kind of need to have a legacy of building stuff?

Yes. building actual physical machines. Yeah, it's why I came to IBM. I wanted the experience, the culture of building hard things that others have not done before. Where do you imagine we are in the timeline of this technology? There will come a point when it will mature. My cell phone is a mature technology at this point. How far are we from that point with Conton?

By 2029, we'll build the first fault-tolerant quantum computer. That is one that can run a very, very large, large problem. To learn how IBM is building the future of computing, visit IBM.com slash quantum. Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health, with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola,

who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomach ache every time that I eat, and it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just have a stomachache every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy.

And all of those things are not something that, generally if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeart Radio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts.

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It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. Thanks for being with us today again. This is the educational show on bare markets. This is the second part of two days. We are doing this show in mid-August, and we think it's apropos because we've had 10 years where we really have not had a bare market

because of central banks and maybe we're getting closer, maybe not. So we just finished talking to about how bull markets are made of greed, froth, speculation. Bare markets are based on fear, but also despair and a loss of hope. Remember, we're winding our way through the bare market. 5% down, we're good.

10% and it's happened before 15, 20 Hey Joe I thought you told me it will only be a small correction well then you get worse but before we go there if bull markets are about

ridiculous valuations guess what happens in bare markets as the curtain comes down and valuation goes to the norm in real bare markets valuation will go to weigh under valuation. Prices you could not believe. And even though finally you realize,

damn, these things are undervalued, they keep going lower in price. Because you're in a bear, a real bear. And you now have some stocks down 50. 60, 70, while the major indices are down 30, 35. And it's at that point, you can't lose any more. And then so many people are actually selling here because of loss of hope and despair. Now, some people say, screw it, I don't care if it goes to zero.

But others have to do something about their wealth. since they did not know the characteristics of tops and bear markets, just get me out. Just get me out. Which gets us closer to the last legs of the bear market. It is despair. It's where. On TV now, the same people that we're telling you,

everything's fine down 5% are telling you, are telling you the end of the world's at hand. Without naming names, back in the despair of 0708, a certain very famous pundit who was bullish all the way down and calling bottoms all the way down told you to be out of the market for the next five years

and within a month, markets bottomed. But if you were savvy enough, if you were smart enough, if you had a great eye and you studied enough. You were out way in advance and you didn't have to deal with that despair, which is a characteristic of late stages of a bare market. Back in 2008, I went to the bank and took out cash. We got so worried.

So these great leading stocks that everybody had to own and got so overowned by the big institutional crowd, And if you looked at the best mutual funds, it was their biggest positions, all the great mutual funds. Well, guess what? Things changed. Things turned. Over-owned, over-loved, over-leveraged. That's why you get those big losses.

So hope and despair. Articles about the market never coming back. No, really. The end of the stock market. World's going into depression. That's what you start hearing. As major indices are down in the 30s, average stocks are down in the 40s and 50s. And by the way, ladies and gentlemen, let me just intervene very quick and say,

these things do happen. These bare markets do happen. I know it has not happened in 10 years. Just remember they do. A couple of times a year, I will spend five hours, shut my office down, and go look at past bare markets to remind myself they happen and to study them over and over again

to make sure I don't miss them. And guess what? The fourth quarter of 2018, we nailed for you guys because all the characteristics of a top and in the entry of a bear market were occurring and we nailed it again. But of course, central banks came in

and did their thing as the market went to its default setting and just turned back up. But I will promise you one day, one day it won't be that. easy and you better be ready so now we've had several vicious rallies but every time we rallied we rallied back up into and maybe above the 50-day moving average for a bit of time and

everyone fails and the rallies are vicious and it sucks people in gets them all excited pundits are calling for the bottom for the umpteenth time And since you are so hopeful, you believe them every time, even though they led you down the wrong path every time. So what do we do? Well, remember again, listen carefully. That last characteristic of a bare market, the final innings of a bare market, are a loss of hope and quite the despair. And when you turn on business channels, you see it in the faces. And you'll see people on there that told you don't worry at 5%.

sent down now telling you to worry believe it or not that's good news no really that's good news and markets will not turn until everybody that wants to sell is sold out Gary how will we ever know how will we ever know when markets are sold out we'll see it Because just as we told you characteristic of bull and bear markets and characteristics of bear markets, well, we're not going to let you hang on the characteristics of how bare markets end. So the first characteristic, again, is the toughest one. Because of human nature, everybody's bearish. Human nature is we want to be part of the masses. It's tough to fight the masses.

But in markets, when the massives are so depressed, when everybody is bearish, when you can feel it reverberate, and you feel it in your bones and you're scared out of your wits, that's when it's time to double down on price in the market. Because the market's out to screw the masses, at the most inopportune time. So we have to have a microscope at this time

because everybody's bearish, but guess what everybody's bearish means? It means that everybody is close to being sold out. And when there's nobody left to sell, therein lies the end of the bear market. and if you are smart enough and good enough and have a keen enough eye to know it, you can be right there ready for it. So, up next, we describe the top of the bull market.

It's time to describe the bottom of the bear market. That's up next. On this, the one and only, investors end. Hello, hello, I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of Smart Talks with IBM. I recently spoke with IBM's new director of research, Jake Embatta. We discussed his vision for the future of quantum computing. At IBM research, what we always do is answer what is the future of computing. Whether it's coming up with new algorithms, coming up with better AI, coming up with quantum,

or coming up with just how do different accelerators go together. It's our DNA to answer the question. of what is the future. Isn't it a perfect problem for IBM because you kind of need to have a legacy of building stuff? Yes. Building actual physical machines. Yeah, it's why I came to IBM.

I wanted the experience, the culture of building hard things that others have not done before. Where do you imagine we are in the timeline of this technology? There will come a point when it will mature. Right? Yeah. My cell phone is a mature technology at this point. How far are we from that point with quantum?

By 2029, we'll build the first fault-tolerant quantum computer. That is one that can run a very, very large, large problem. To learn how IBM is building the future of computing, visit IBM.com slash quantum. Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask. at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomach

ache every time that I eat and it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh yeah, you know, I just, I have a stomachache every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeartRadio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. OnDEC is built to back small businesses like yours.

Whether you're buying equipment, expanding your team, or bridging cash flow gaps, OnDex loans up to $400,000 help make it happen fast. Rated A-plus by the Better Business Bureau and earning thousands of five-star trust pilot reviews, OnDec delivers funding you can count on. Apply in minutes at ondac.com. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDec or Celtic Bank. OnDec does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amount subject to lender approval.

You're listening to What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! In The Gester's Edge. With Gary Culper. You're listening to

What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! In the Gester's Edge. With Gary Culper. And what once again to Investors Eds, as we take you to the end of our

two-day two-part series on characteristics of bear markets. Now, as we said at the end of the last segment, we don't want to let you hang. The most important characteristic in the late innings of bare markets is something that you want to fight against. Because we all want to be with the crowd. But you have to fight it as much as you can. because at the end of bear markets, in that late inning, everyone is bearish. Everyone is bearish. And we're not talking to permabairs.

We're talking about the people that were bullish all the way down and in the late innings turned bearish. That is number one. First and foremost, you are not going to want to believe the market is going into the bottoming phase. That's number one. Number two. Price. So, remember what we said?

At the top, stocks led the sectors, sectors laid the market. Well, if stocks led down, what do you think they do at the end of bear markets? They lead up. So, first the indices. First the indices. Well, they first have to stop going down, right? But it doesn't happen at once because bottoming is a process. It's not an event.

So the Dow, the S&P, NASDAQ, whatever you look at, will hit a price and rally up, but then come down and retest. And sometimes go below that price, but buy a little bit, but come back quickly above it, and rally up, and come back down and retest, and rally up. and come back down. And for four or five months, or three months or two months,

you can take a nice little pen and draw a line underneath price where it went, and you will see that in and around that area, it stops. But something else happens while that's going on, while the indices are bottoming. The next big leaders of the next bull market start to take shape. Really?

Well, we're scanning 1,500 stocks a day and all of a sudden we find while the major indices are still at their lows. We find 30 names that hit their lows two months ago.

And I've already in the process of stair stepping their way up, heavy volume on the upside, light volume on the pullback, their 50-day moving averages instead of ascending, flatten out, and start turning up before the indices. And you start to see all of a sudden the biggest, strongest leading names that have done nothing for a while. Break out of range. What, we actually have stocks breaking out of range and the market still

hasn't bottom? That's how it goes. And you know what happens next? You're probe. You know, I'm going to buy a couple of these names, just small positions. And lo and behold, they start working. Wow, that hasn't happened in the last bunch of months, and then more and more names show up, and fewer and fewer stocks are headed down. And more and more names show up, and fewer and fewer stocks head down. And then something happens. The major indices which spent two or three months retesting itself, finally break to the upside and break above initial resistance. You know when I said we rally up and come down? Well, they got back above that rally up. And then the major indices, 50-day moving averages start flattening out and start turning up. And then we can start drawing

little stair steps to the upside. As more and more names break out, the new high list, the new yearly high list starts increasing and away we go. And let me give you one big gigantic hint. And not such a hint. After a bare market ends, the first stocks to break out of range, most of them will be got gigantic monsters. As the reason why they didn't break out a range sooner is because the market held them back. They shot out of a cannon. And that's why it's so imperative when everybody's depressed and nobody wants in to work double time because your biggest, most gigantic money are made in the first few months of a new bull market as the great names were held back. And then you'll start noticing something about these great names. earnings will be up 50%

revenues up 30 earnings up 100% revenues up 40 some of these names will be the IPOs of the past bull market that got crushed but kept growing their businesses so strong because they have new

products, new management that have such strong demand and they go up one fold, two fold, four fold, five fold. And there you have it. Little tutorial Two parts. On bare market tops,

bare market characteristics, and bare market bottoms, but it's not that easy. Just can't listen to two hours of radio. You've got to put it into effect. Hope you do. Had it a great evening. Drive carefully.

When you get home, do like we do simple procedure. Make sure you hug your children. Night night all. Thanks for joining us for another edition of Investors Edge on the Biz Talk Radio network. If you missed any of today's show or to get in touch with Gary Cultbaum, please go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. This has been Investors' Edge with Gary CultBomb on BizTalk. To listen to past

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