Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Bear Market PART1 Holiday Episode [Best of Gary 12.31.2024]
Episode Date: December 31, 2024garykaltbaum.com...
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Here's your host, Gary Coltbaum.
And welcome once again to Investors Edge.
I'm Gary Colbomb.
your host, a thanks for being with us today.
Always glad you're here.
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Normally, when we do a holiday show like today or an educational show, we do not give you a date.
But since we're being specific on the type of show, and it may be or may get quite timely in the next year, we're giving you the date.
we are taping this show
on Saturday
August 17th
2019
and we are going to talk about
the markets
for the whole show
we are going to talk specifically
on this show
conditioning
of markets
markets
conditioning your psyche
and condition you
to not act in kind
And what we mean by that is if you have listened to this show forever, we care about one little thing.
Staying lockstep or one step ahead of the markets.
You always hear me say things like markets setting up to do this, markets are setting up to do that.
That sentence is not happenstance.
In the study of 100 years of markets,
markets set up to go bullish, markets set up to go bearish, sectors set up to go bullish, sectors set up to go bearish, stocks do the same.
Now since we've had 10 years, not uninterrupted, but where we've never had what we call a decent amount of bare market pain,
The classic bare markets.
Today's show is about bare markets.
And it's simple.
Simple reason why we're doing this today.
Because everybody is conditioned
that we will never, ever, ever go through another serious bear market again
because nobody can even remember one,
even though just 10 years ago, we had a monstrous global bear market.
Everybody's conditioned for the central banks around the globe to save the day.
And till this day, they're still at it.
Just this week, our president, jawboning our Fed to lower rates, which they're going to do.
We've had 750 rate cuts since Lehman Brothers.
We have negative rates in Europe, and they are coming out in September to lower them even more, even though, let me repeat, rates are negative.
There will be more printing of money, and there's been about 20 trillion of that around the globe.
So we worry.
The last two bare markets were gargantuan.
Why?
Because we believe central banks intervened with easy.
money for too long causing bubbles and you know what happens to bubbles they do pop and now
this one we have never seen in our history what our central banks have done create
money out of thin air Europe is now talking about using money out of thin air to
buy up the stock market where is the logic in any of this I don't know but that's
not our point today. Our main point today is on how to prepare for it, what you will see at the
outset of it and will wind your way through how bare markets work, knowing when we ever we go
into one again, we will not know at the outset how long it lasts or how far it goes. But we do know by
precedent, certain things will occur.
So first off, let me state, the worry is everybody's condition that the central banks will
be there to stop any problems.
And they happen.
We get it.
We had a 20% three-month drop in the fourth quarter of 18.
Central Bank came in, changed their stance, market bottom immediately.
We had a 10% correction just about three months ago.
Came in, changed their stance again, market bottomed again.
The real question is how long it's going to last, where markets listen to these people.
So number one on the hit parade, bull markets conditioned people into believing nothing bad will ever happen.
The longer the bull market, the more conditioning there is.
the more the bull market and longer the bull market the thought processes no worries
that's what markets do so to start off how will we ever know if we are reverting from a bull market
to a bear market well it's pretty simple back last year before the market dumped 20% and
then the central bank saved it every day we and we don't expect you to but there are places to find
these numbers but every day we scan 1500 stocks 200 sectors just about every country and every day we're
able to keep lists of things that are in uptrends things that are in downtrends things that are
in downtrends things that are not trending and we keep numbers on this
not just on how many, but where?
You've heard me for the last year talk about avoid energy,
and energy remains in a bare market.
Avoid most foreign markets.
Most foreign markets remain bearish.
Avoid most commodities.
Remain bearish.
We had bearish in gold and silver,
but in the last few months we reverted to a new bull.
That'll be for the next.
time. So we watch all these stocks and all these sectors and we have a list and we add them up.
And we see what sectors are leading, what are already bearish. And it's pretty simple at that point.
The more names that break support and turn into downtrends, the fewer and fewer names that hold up tells us something's amiss.
could be just a correction.
As we stated earlier, we don't know.
We don't know how long something lasts or how far it goes.
Just want to stay in lock, step, or a step ahead.
There's no way of knowing six months out, 12 months out,
regardless what Wall Street and all the pundits tell you.
So what you will see and what you will hear from us
is there goes another 30 stocks, broke support.
Support. What do you mean by support, Gary? Well, the 50-day moving averages, for starters.
And without having to be too technical, all the 50-day moving averages is price.
Add up the last 50 days, the closes, and divide by 50, and you have a smoothed outline.
Throughout 100 years of history, that was the first important point.
Why? Because nothing good could happen.
if you're trading below this line.
Impossible to have an uptrend when you're trading below.
Impossible.
Now it doesn't mean you're going to crash.
It does not mean the world's going to end.
It may just stay below the line and turn back up eventually.
But for starters, trading below the 50 day,
that's your first line.
Because your up trend for that second is over.
For that second.
We've seen plenty of time.
Stocks go up 50%, break the 50 days, sit around for three months, and then resume.
But that's number one.
And may I state about as important a point we will make to you as we go through these educational series.
Up next.
What next?
I'll have that and more.
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Educational show today.
Bull markets turning into bare markets.
So the first thing's first.
The more names break the 50 day,
the tougher the market's going to be.
And every day we have these legal pads and we write them up.
And we can really tell the market by where the major indices are in relation to the 50 day and average stock.
Now, here's a very important point.
The major indices will hold up while so many stocks break below this very important area and break support.
Why would that be?
Because when the market turns defensive, it buys up defensive.
And you know what defensive is?
The biggest, the big names, the most liquid names, the Dow names.
So those major indices stay up.
But as more and more stocks and more sectors start breaking,
eventually under the weight of all those stocks breaking,
the major indices come down.
Now, right now,
There's some issues.
All the major indices are below the 50 day.
But guess what happened before that?
We've been talking to you about how the Russell 2000, the Midcap 400,
transports, foreign markets, were all very bare.
So a lot of things underneath the surface at this juncture not working.
That's how markets top.
But again, we don't know how much.
So if 80% of the market's trading above the 50 day, and then it turns into 70, it's a sign, 60 a bigger sign, 50 a bit, you get the point.
So it is that point in time where it's the uh-oh moment.
Again, does not have to turn into the end of the world.
But we know by precedent that's how tops occur.
and it just so happened in the fourth quarter which we nailed for you of 2018 because it was a classic top central banks came in to save the day towards late December but what happens when markets get in trouble like this more and more names more and more leading names currently as we get towards late august 2019 right now there's about four and more names more and more leading names currently as we get towards late august two thousand and nineteen right now there's about
50 maybe even more names, leading growth names that have broken support and even worse.
So few and fewer the leading growth names, another sign of trouble, are occurring right now.
That's another part of the equation.
But how do people feel?
Market, the major indices are down 6%.
Small caps down about 10, transport's 11.
How do people feel right now?
How do people feel when markets do top from the get-go off of a bare, a bull market that's lasted a long time?
How do they feel?
They're cool.
Do you know why?
Conditioning.
They are conditioned into believing.
It's a correction.
No worries.
We're good.
It's just a correction.
But mind you, those that are having.
heavy into energy stocks.
We're saying that 12 months ago,
and a lot of energy names are down 50, 60%, if not more.
Just remember that.
There are a whole host of names.
U.S. Steel is down 70, 80% in the last year,
as I speak in late August 2019.
U.S. Steel!
An owner of U.S. Steel a year ago,
I bet you they thought it was just a correction.
Guess what?
And that's why we always say,
when something breaks the 50 day,
it's at that point,
you must have it up on review
and watch it more closely
because it's a potential start
of a top of consequence.
So it's at this point where most people
are cool. That's a correction.
We've had a good bull market.
It's normal. Everything's fine.
And what are the pundits saying on TV?
It's just the correct.
Don't worry, everything's okay.
Market's cheap. It's a value. We're good. And I get it and we get it. It is just a correction at that point in time. But we measure underneath the surface. And again, as we speak to you now in August 2019, we can tell you that the major indices is down 5, 6% from the highs. Small and midcaps are down 10.
But there are some things down 20, 30, and 40, and there's some foreign markets down in the 30s.
So we know underneath the surface, not as healthy as some would believe when they just see the bigger indices down 5 or 6%.
But that's how we go into bear markets.
Again, it doesn't mean we will, but that's the start of the bear.
Nobody believing it's a bear.
Everybody telling you it's just a correction.
and the reality is at that point in time, that's all it is.
But just for the sake of the show, we're going into a bare market.
And we want to describe for you the things that happen next.
Because everybody think in a correction, uh-oh.
See, part of bull markets of the conditioning is a margin.
People are borrowing money to buy stocks, so you have a lot of leverage in the system.
B, I'm not selling.
It's just a correction.
Get where I'm going with this.
And then C happens.
C.
Another leg down.
The major indices are down 10, 11%, the big guys.
The small and mid-cap indices are down 15%.
A bunch of leading stocks are in the 20s.
How do the masses feel then?
The same way.
Why? Well, for the past 10 years, we've had a bunch of 15% corrections. So they're good.
And the pundits and the people on Wall Street are out telling you the same thing. We're good.
Up next. The next leg down. And some facts to consider. I'm Gary. This is the one only investors at.
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Hi, I'm Dr. Jay Goodman, host of Beyond the Script,
the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know
you could ask at the pharmacy counter.
In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola,
who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal.
A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches.
Like I get a stomach ache every time that I eat.
And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just have a stomach
kick every day, or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something
that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive.
We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point,
we can probably identify something that we can change.
Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much
more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeart Radio.
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And welcome once again to Investors Edge.
So we are doing educational shows. This is a two-part.
two days of bull markets turning into bare markets and all the characteristics and we're not
calling we're doing this show in August of 2019 these two days we're not calling for anything
we're just letting you know we've had 10 years without a real bear market and we do believe
it's the central banks that have prevented it and we do worry of the next bear market that
they can't control is going to be much bigger because our study of asset bubbles and what happened
in 07 and 08 in 2000, but we'll keep our fingers crossed. So we've been telling you, we just got
to the point where, well, now the major indices, the big guys are now down 10%. They finally got
to the areas that are more defensive. As we said earlier, when the market goes defensive,
You know where the money flows?
Out of risk areas.
And it buys up Procter and gamble.
Procter and gambles in the Dow.
Holds up the Dow better.
So one of the main characteristics is,
if you have to be invested,
you get as defensive as defensive can be.
Typically, but not 100%,
food, beverage,
utilities,
household products,
those type of things very liquid stuff
drugs so we're down 10%
major indices
but we've seen it plenty of times before
in the past 10 years
as we do this show in August of 2019
so we're good
and people are on TV
the pundits not talking about
the fact at that point the russell
2000s in the 20s or the mid-caps or the foreign markets in the 30s and so many stocks that have been
hit so hard.
They're talking the Dow S&P and they're down 10-11.
But we know at that point the average stock is 15, 18.
So when you see 10 or 11 and you look at your account and it's down 18, you now know why.
of course unless you own Duke Energy
or a Procter and Gamble type
or a Hershey's
though Hershey's had their bare markets in the past
but everybody's cool
but then something happens
remember how we discussed the 50-day moving average
that nothing good
can happen with
an asset price if it's below the 50 day
but not necessarily bad
All bull markets ride above an ascending 50-day.
Well, there's something called the 200-day average.
And for us, that is what is known as a long-term moving average.
You add up the last 200 days and their closes, and you divide by 200,
and you have an even more smooth outline.
For us, that's the major league point.
Because not only are you below the 50-day where,
Nothing good can happen, but not necessarily bad will happen,
because so many times we've seen a break of the 50 day
and you drop down to the 200 and you rally up.
As we speak on this date this past week,
and we're doing this on August 17th this past week,
a bunch of things held the 200-day moving average.
But when you break the 200 day and you can't get back above it,
not only can nothing good happen, but only bad could happen.
And what do we mean by that?
Well, if you're trading below, you're in bare territory.
That's what we call it.
Not necessarily the 20% that they tell you about.
And if you stay below it, here's how it works.
And I want you to listen carefully.
It's recognized.
It's recognized by the big institutional, big money crowd.
And it's at that point in time where you get more institutions selling.
And then it's this point in time with a 50-day moving average that has been ascending.
This line been ascending rolls over and starts heading down.
Remember, the 50-day mover, the shorter the moving average, the quicker it can move.
And turn, the longer a moving average takes a while.
But once you break that 200 day, not only nothing good, but normally only bad.
And the longer you stay below, the worse.
So we're at the point where a ton of...
of names have broken the 200 day, but the major indices have not. They're holding up, but the
Russell's down 15 below the 200 day, all kinds of stocks, and you know what you're hearing
from Wall Street right then and there? Well, we've seen 10 to 15% corrections forever.
Don't worry. In fact, markets are so much cheaper right now. You got to buy. Buying opportunity.
it's a value but again for our purposes here as we are given you the characteristics of bare markets on how they move
and how the masses react bear with it so things have worsened and there's worry there is a little good news at this point a lot of people are turning bearish a lot of people are
worried. But since you're coming off of a bull market and you're no longer at a bull market,
sentiment's different. In a bull market, remember, corrections get everybody worried,
and all they do is pull back the market and they go on their merry way again. In bare market,
sentiment changes. It does not work as well, so you must recognize that bare market.
All the rules have changed. In the bare market, all the rules have changed.
all your rules of bull markets are gone
no longer
will an upgrade from an analyst
turn your stock back up
in bull markets
bad news is good news
and good news is great news
but in bare markets
good news is bad news
and bad news crumbles
you'll see a company announce magnificent earnings and still go down.
In other words, the rules have changed,
and you're going to have to recognize them,
or you will incur some serious losses.
We'll go over those rules in a bit,
in the second show covering this,
which you will hear on another day.
So you now have the big indices, let's call it, down 12%.
You got the Russell 2000 and some of the more risky ones down 18 to 20.
My goodness.
But we had that last year.
And we had it in 16.
We've had it during the 10 years.
We have not had to worry about going through a real bare market.
the one where we'll bring up to you the real bare market characteristics in a few so what happens next some more uh-oh all the usual things that move markets to the upside are no longer doing it all of a sudden the reason why markets topped out and got bearish we're starting to get some of that news when the market topped you didn't hear any bad news
but deeper into this bare market, you're now starting to get some issues.
Economic reports not as good, earnings reports not as good.
More importantly, reactions not as good.
Up next, I will continue.
Don't be depressed.
This is all good stuff.
Up next on Investors Eds.
Hello, hello, I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of the podcast,
Smart Talks with IBM.
I recently sat down with IBM's chairman and CEO, Arvin Krishna.
And I asked him, how can companies use AI to its fullest potential to create smarter business?
My one advice to them, pick areas you can scale.
Don't pick the shiny little toys on the side.
For example.
If anybody has more than 10% of what they had for customer service, 10% of what they had for customer service, 10 years,
years ago, they're already five years behind.
If anybody is not using AI to make their developers who write software 30% more productive
today, with the goal of being 70% more productive.
So we are not asking our clients to be the first experiment on it.
We say you can leverage what we did.
We're happy to bring out all our learnings, including what needs to change in the process.
Because the biggest change is not technology.
is getting people to accept that there's a different way to do things.
To listen to the full conversation, visit IBM.com slash smart talks.
Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the Script,
the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions
you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter.
In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist,
Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues
we should not accept as normal.
A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches.
Like I get a stomachache every time that I eat.
And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just have a stomachache
every day.
Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy.
And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut,
you should be living with.
So that's when we deep dive.
We deep dive into your medication.
We deep dive into your OTC medication.
And then at that point, we can prove.
probably identify something that we can change.
Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much
more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeartRadio.
Listen now wherever you get your podcasts.
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In the Gester's Edge.
With Gary Culpa.
And welcome once again to Investors Edge.
Thanks for being with us today.
We are doing a two-part special educational show
on how bull markets turn into bare markets,
characteristics of, reactions to.
We've already discussed how price will break below the 50-day moving average,
but everybody's cool.
Don't worry, it's happened before,
how more and more stocks break down,
where 70% are in uptrends, then it turns into 60, 50, 40,
30, 20.
Sector by sector by stock by stock goes by the wayside.
Reactions, no big deal.
Wall Street, no big deal.
We've seen it before.
You just got to buy.
What a value here.
It's cheap.
But we're talking bare markets here.
Real ones.
Not like we've seen over the last 10 years because of central banks.
Not the ones that last three months and come right back up.
We're talking about the ones that go through phases.
legs
price
time
so get your seat belts on as we move
through the bear market
and remember
don't be depressed
that we're talking about bear markets
use this as a weapon
for the next time
we have real bear markets
which by the way
we're doing this show in mid-August
we're seeing in many areas around the globe
as well as in our markets
as mentioned earlier, energy stocks.
Classic bear market.
So, major indices down 12%, small and mid-cap indices near 20.
The talk on TV is starting to turn a little bit negative,
though you have the Wall Street never turns negative ever.
And then we have some characteristics show up what we call on a technical basis.
and those are those moving averages.
What you will see is that 50-day moving average, roll over, top, turn down.
Remember, in bull markets, the 50-day moving average, which is just price, ascends.
All pullbacks are contained.
Price of a stock in a bull market will pull back into the 50-day and rally right off it,
sometimes to the penny, it's so uncanny.
But as we move through the weakness,
the 50-day moving average rolls over.
The 200-day, you're accounting for 200 days.
It does not roll over very easy.
It takes time.
So it's the 50-day we watch first and foremost,
where price is now below,
and now the 50-day starts heading south.
from let's say
1030 on a watch
down to
430
well since we have a 50 day moving average
and a 200 day moving average
and the 200 day doesn't move
but the 50 day does
and is coming down
what's the next thing we look for
the 50 day crossing
below the 200
day moving average
a sign of barren
action.
And it's at this point in time
you should have taken
some action weeks
ago. But of course
we've seen this
before. And central
banks save us.
Don't worry.
Everything's okay.
It's just a correction.
Markets have a hundred years
of history.
Don't be stupid in sell now.
It's already down.
18%,
but we're talking
a real bare market kids.
Amuse us.
So the market drifts lower.
It's now major
indices are below
the 200 day.
Important sectors
are two most important sectors,
the semiconductors and financials,
below.
So many things below, the 50-day
break in below.
what happens? Well, bear markets are not very nice. One of the main characteristics of bear markets
is that the bounces and the rallies in bear markets are a lot stronger than in bull markets.
Why? Because of short covering. Because once you get into bear, short sellers get enamored with themselves.
They get emboldened and they have very quick trigger fingers.
so you get really vicious rallies
and what do these rallies do
to the masses
and to Wall Street
it gives them hope
bare market rallies
are stronger than bull market rallies
and they're vicious
we coined the phrase
they're sharp
they're quick
they make you feel good
They get everybody talking about them.
They then suck you in and then screw you soon after.
One of the main characteristics of a real bear market.
We cannot say that loud enough.
We cannot begin to tell you how many people will get sucked in
on bear market rallies
because everybody on Wall Street
is going to tell you
bear market's over
but little do they know
it's just a bear market rally
up next
on the next show
we'll wind your way through
the rest of the bear
and the bottom of the bear
thanks for being here
this has been the one of the one
and only Investors Ed.
Thanks for joining us for another edition of Investors Edge on the Biz Talk Radio Network.
If you missed any of today's show or to get in touch with Gary Cultbaum, please go to
GaryKK.com. That's GaryKK dot com. To reach Gary Coltbaum at his office, call 1-8-422-5559.
That's 1-3-8-4-22-5559.
Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to
past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com.
That's GaryK.com.
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