Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Beta Picks Up.

Episode Date: July 20, 2022

More Info At: http://garykaltbaum.com

At CVS, it matters that we're not just in your community, but that we're part of it. It matters that we're here for you when you need us, day or night, and we want everyone to feel welcomed and rewarded. It matters that CVS is here to fill your prescriptions and here to fill your craving for a tasty and, yeah, healthy snack. At CBS, we're proud to serve your community because we believe where you get your medicine matters. So visit us at cbs.com or just come by store we can't wait to meet you store hours vary by location investors edge with gary cult bomb straight talk about you and your money now from the biz talk studios here is gary cult bomb imagine notice how we're starting the show today imagine you're a skier and you're on one of those

very steep hills what do they call black diamond I've never been on a black one. I've been on blue and green. And I've never been on a really hard blue one because I'm an average skier. I'm not that great. I always wanted to be a great skier, but for some reason, I don't know my legs can't take. And I consider myself strong legs, but I don't know. imagine you are now watching somebody on those slopes and then imagine you have a piece of paper and a pen

and you draw that slope and you draw it from left to right and it's a very steep slope let's call it from Let me think here. 10 p.m. Down to 4 a.m. That's a good slope, right?

And then at the bottom, what happens? It flattens out, of course, because then you get to go to the bar and drink, what they call, Apraski, is that what they call it? Imagine that. You got me so far? Well, that is what a ton, a ton of high beta software types, technology types did starting last year.

Some started it early last year. Some started it mid last year. Some started it late last year. And they were crushed. As we highlighted for you on this show, 50, 60, 70, 80, 90 percent drops in names that were. lauded that were told to you, oh, just own these forever. And one by one, destroyed. One of the major reasons why we were able to say to you last year, oh, this market's in trouble before the major indices got in trouble was name after name, after name, after name.

name after name after name weren't just going down they were being destroyed bludgeoned and how many times did we come on this show and say to you these words we're stunned you were always taught in bare markets past leaders on average will drop on average 70% well it happened again and it wasn't just names you really haven't heard of too much Netflix 75% Facebook I think at the lows was like near 60% they all did that ski slope to different levels, different extent, in that a peloton, how much did that drop, a high of 171, a low of 8, but for many weeks now, we have highlighted for our peeps and for you how most all of these names stopped going down. Not they were.

going up. They just stopped going down. They hit the bottom of that steep hill. And the skiers would take their skis off and walk away on a flat street. And that's what happened for the last three months. All of them. and I repeat, we were stunned how low something would go. Stunned. But for the better part now, I'm going to call it 12 weeks, 14 weeks, 16 weeks. Most hit a price. And every time they would come down and hit that price,

they'd stop going down. In other words, the bottom of that hill, that flattened out. Simple as that. You got me so far? I was really trying to think, how can I describe something on radio that people can't see, but they can imagine? And I think I came up with something good. And that's the ski slope. So all these names did that drop to different extent. All these names found an area. Even Peloton. As much as it went down 90-some-odd percent in the last few weeks, in and around that $9 area, 8.5 to 9 refused to go lower.

Even the worst of the worst, and Peloton as far as percentage, one of the worst of the worst. We've seen improvement in the market since Thursday. We've had some improvement here or there, but really not till Thursday on that reversal did I really think, hmm. And we said this because major indices for the purpose. for the past few weeks we described the NASDAQ for about eight weeks the S&P 4 to 5 didn't want to go any lower and then Thursday we had this big reversal and then we had this real follow-through and we thought something was up improvement end of bear market who the hell knows because as we have described for you oh very often in bare markets you will get three-month rallies that go up 20% and everybody thinks you're out of the bare market and then boom because it's a bigger bear market.

You have more legs to the downside. But not until Thursday did we think maybe the broad market finally had enough for now. And then Friday came, had another good day. And then Monday this week sucked. which brings us to yesterday and that will bring us to today we'll explain I'm Gary this is the one only Investors Edge

Hi I'm Gary Colbaum hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge we're not just handsome radio people we manage investors money for a living specializing in fee-based discretionary money management no big commissions just a fee on the assets that's managed we also provide a full range of personalized services including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving

your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-22-559. That's 888-4-22, 5559. That's 888, 422-5-5-9. Investment advisory services offered through call bomb capital management. Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal.

A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomach ache every time that I eat. And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh yeah, you know, I just have a stomachache every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive.

We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeartRadio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. Cashflow Crunch. OnDEC's small business line of credit gives your business immediate access to funds up to $200,000 right when you need it. Cover seasonal dips, manage payroll, restock inventory, or tackle unexpected expenses without missing a beat.

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Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. All right, so let me first, the market wrap is brought to you by Investment-Dashmodels.com. That's Jim Rohraback, one of the great market timers. No gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market with his proprietary indicators.

Go check it out. Investment-dash-models.com. So, Monday. We started strong and had that really crummy reversal day. And I scanned Monday night and said, man, today really sucked. It went right up to resistance, sold off, volume was heavy, that can't be good news, and then boom yesterday to the upside. And we noticed a couple of things yesterday.

First off, the semiconductor is strong. But we all know a part of that is the corruption of Nancy. Pelosi. No, really. And what we mean by that is there's a semiconductor bill where they're going to kill us with more taxes and more spending, giving away to semiconductor companies, even though they make billions, and we find out Nancy Pelosi's husband bought a crap load of semiconductor stock. They're very good at it. We would go to jail for what they do, but I digress. So that was going on, the semiconductors. And then we've had what we call improvement.

What do we mean by that? Well, imagine all those names at the bottom of the ski hill. But you know, as you walk away from that hill, you can go towards another one and they have, how do you get up the hill? A lift. Imagine if some of those names, and we're just talking price here,

Get on that lift and start heading upwards. Meaning, hey, that low at the bottom of the hill, we're now off the lows. We've started to see that. And then we started to see more. But I haven't been real impressed by it. Okay, good. A few more names and a few more names. But today, they really got.

today. The worst of the worst moved off of the bottom of that hill and got on the lift. Some better than others. Some started moving a couple of weeks ago and have made another stair step up today. Others just got going, which now begs the question, if all these down and out bludgeon, bombed out names, have indeed bottomed and really bottomed. Isn't that good for the market? Because that's what's happened here. We're going to go through this tonight with our peeps, but pretty much.

Everything has come off the lows. Even the worst stuff has moved off the lows. Now, we have disclaimers and caveats for you. They're all reporting earnings in the next two, three, weeks. That's number one. Number two, a lot of them lose money. And you know what we say about companies that lose money in bare markets. Oh, they're going to get destroyed. Well, they've already been destroyed. Maybe that's it. Maybe 80% is enough. And amazingly, when we tell you 80%, yes, a bunch of names, not just a few, a bunch of them went down 80%. So we're just letting you know for whatever

reason or maybe it was just its time. That is what happened today. The worst hunks of junk. I take that back because I use the hunks of junk words for other things. The worst acting names, the ones Fathers Down, made little moves today and some bigger moves. So we're just letting you know. What does that possibly mean? I don't know.

except if it sticks, the floor has picked up. If it sticks. Usually when all of them do it, at the same time, it does stick. Notwithstanding, as we said, just a ton of earnings to come out. And let me promise you something. I can promise you on this. There's going to be some blowups. Companies that report bad numbers and the stocks get crushed.

unlike Goldman Sachs that reported horrible numbers and they bought it up. ASML Holdings, a Dutch semiconductor company, guided woefully. It was up $16 today. 3%, not the, you know, but it was still up. Which means, at least for these two, is it possible they wrung out? meaning they just went so far down in their bare market that there's no bad news that can make it worse. Maybe. We'll see.

As we say day by day, stock by stock, sector by sector, little by little piece by piece inch by inch. But we just want to let you know that today, my screen, and I have a separate screen for these names, just a bunch of 2, 3% moves and some 5% moves. But I repeat, oh, a stock that went from 100 down to 20 up a buck today. It's 5%. It leaves it down 79%. But it still matters because all of them doing it. So I'm pretty sure we described that pretty well to you.

I'll listen back later. We'll do a webcast on it tonight. doesn't guarantee anything? Heck no. But remember what we do here. It's the weight of the evidence. And remember, the perma bears, if the market goes higher from here,

will stay perma bearish. The perma bulls will thank the Lord that they can stop making excuses for being perma bulls in a bear market. And then tell you see, I told you so, even though their stocks are still down 50%. We read the market And as we tell you

If things change we'll let you know Last three days some changes Nothing's guaranteed though And we'll take it day by day step by step And we're in the midst of earning season And by the way, remember Anthem Health Name Change to Elevance Health Down 38-2,

today on their earnings, so you just don't know. Up next, much more. This is the one only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist, Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accomplish except as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomachache every time that I eat.

And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just, I have a stomach ache every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication.

And then at that point, we can probably identify something. something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeartRadio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop.

You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.APUS.edu. OnDEC is built to back small businesses like yours. Whether you're buying equipment, expanding your team, or bridging cash flow gaps, on deck's loans up to $400,000 help make it happen fast. Rated A-plus by the Better Business Bureau and earning thousands of five Five-star trust pilot reviews. OnDec delivers funding you can count on. Apply in minutes at ondac.com. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDec or Celtic Bank.

OnDec does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amount subject to lender approval. You're listening to America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. So let me give you some outcomes today. Number one, the NASDAQ for the second day in a row a good day and is now a few percent above the 50-day moving average.

Keep in mind it did that in March and cratered from there. But we're much farther down now. the Philadelphia Semiconductor got above the 50 day nicely today. And as you know, that's of import. These two things I just mentioned, if it sticks good, if it doesn't, bad. Duh, I would suggest after this little move overboard here, but if the patterns are changing that's not going to matter and a lot of these things will go higher notwithstanding earnings the NASDAQ 100 the same what else the arc funds i have to bring that up

because i get asked about it a thousand times a week for the life of me why anybody would ask about a a fund that was able to drop 75% is beyond me, but I would suggest it has to do with the fact that in a bullish mode, it has more what we call beta than other things. Just don't own it a bare market. And right now we're what we would call counter trend moving right now. The software exchange traded fund IGV moved above the 50 day moving average for the first time since April

it did it for a few days back then and then was crushed again but is much lower now and of course a lot of the names that I alluded to earlier you know the ones at the bottom of the ski slope a lot of them were

software names. Thus, the move in the IGV today. And I will tell you, they're buying up, well, let me put it better. Some of the worst of the worst have stopped going down and trying to make that little turn off the lows, including the bigger names like Adobe, which dropped from 700. It's currently 400. Microsoft is not a business. the 50 well it finished a little bit above it today my bet on that one just my main point of starting the show was to let you know and we're gonna show it tonight in our webcasts gonna go through all these names but we're gonna give the disclaimer and the caveat just letting you know earnings are coming out just

letting you know this one loses money that one loses money but there's just been a lot of them and that was a good day today. With the Dow only up 47, the NASDAQ was up 184. It was the semis. It was these names. And some of the mega caps are getting better, even like a Facebook up another seven today. Keep in mind, Facebook, since Thursday, when we thought things were changing, it's gone from 160 to 183. That's about 14%. I would have left to bought it on Thursday. We don't buy bare market. It's stocks with a lot of insider selling, but didn't stop it from going higher. And it's still down 50 some odd percent from the highs, by the way.

Netflix finished up 14 bucks that ate at 2.16. Was up 15 early, was down early, and then finished with the better NASDAQ. The stock was 701 in November. And yeah, they sandbagged. What do we mean by that? Well, they made everybody believe they were losing 2 million subscribers. They only lost 900,000 subscribers, which stinks, but it's better than 2 million. Oh, what do you mean they made people believe?

Well, all those guidance goes on, and that's, how do you think everybody, how do you think every analyst came up with 2 million? It's guided. Oops, only 900,000. And remember what we said about Netflix for a couple of years here. They're spending too much money on content. They're slowing that up, though they're still wasting money on some stupid things, but who mighta say? I'm just me.

And ASML finished up 16, even though they guided down next quarter. Huge. You know, sometimes you guide down, well, we expected to do $6 billion in revenues. I'm going to do $5.8 billion. No, no, no, no. way down, but it was still up 16. Why was it up 16? The market's better.

Is it going to last? I don't know. I will tell you this when all is said and done. If you don't grow their earnings, eventually you're going to hit a wall somewhere. If you keep warning, eventually you're going to get crushed somewhere. If the market decided to top tomorrow off of this little nascent move, Notice the big word nascent.

And a long time ago, I used to think it was nascent. But it's nascent. I looked it up. You know, you can go on Google and say, put in the word and say pronunciation, and there's a video of it. You know, I used to think it was ori. It's awry, a w-R-Y. I freely admit it. So good reactions to bad numbers.

I promise you that can change. And I also promise you, as we mentioned, Elevents Health, down 38 today to 459 in the strong managed care group. There'll be others. Don't know which ones. Stay tuned. Tesla in the aftermarket is up $11 to $7.54 on their earnings. I haven't even looked at their earnings yet. But you know who's going to be pissed off at that?

all the options players. You know, the options players have this thing where it says, ooh, the expectations, it's going to move this way or that way. And they end up losing on all their options, or most of them. So Tesla's not going to be a big deal tomorrow. They beat by 46 cents, but revenues in line, reaffirms expectation to achieve 50% annual growth in vehicle deliveries over a multi-year horizon. only good enough for 11 bucks so far

and that's still way down from the highs and that was kind of important one after the close looking for others as I speak and nothing really coming up just yet so good day today the Dow not good in the Dow today Salesforce.com was up 8 and change

that's one of those software names a stock that has been brutally beaten up 311 it's 1,8,000 it's 1,8,000, but maybe turning the corner also on the last three quarters earnings down 27 down 19 and down 19 remember eventually all that's going to have to change on the other side United Health down 14 in sympathy with Elevance health same group and United Health was looking like it wanted to go higher off of earnings but not today And just everything else was a little bit of mixed bag.

Disney was up three and change, a little sympathy with the Netflix. By the way, Disney, which has been in the brutal bear market, that finished a little bit above the 50 day today. And that doesn't mean a lot. It's a start. Got a stick. And then we take it from there. Just remember, you cannot ascend if you're below the 50-day moving average.

Doesn't mean you will ascend if you're above it, but that's the only way you can. Up next, this, that, and the other thing, and whatever else. This is the one only investors edge. Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health,

with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomach ache every time that I eat, and it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just have a stomachache every day.

Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeartRadio.

Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. Success starts with your drive. An American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.APUS.edu. OnDEC is built to back small businesses like yours.

Whether you're buying equipment, expanding your team, or bridging cash flow. Gap's loans up to $400,000 help make it happen fast. Rated A-plus by the Better Business Bureau and earning thousands of five-star trust pilot reviews. On-Dec delivers funding you can count on. Apply in minutes at on-deck.com.

Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by On-Dec or Celtic Bank. On-deck does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amount subject to lender approval. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready.

Go. Action! In The Gester's Edge. With Gary Kaltba. Tomorrow, I will be on Fox Business at 11 a.m. And in the 5 p.m. hour. And I'm always asked, how do you have time for this?

Let me explain how we do television now. Are you ready? I turn around. I look at my laptop camera, and I'm on TV. That's my television. That's how easy it is now. It doesn't take a moment of my time.

Most of my hits are 10 minutes or less. And then I turn back around and I am in front of five screens. Four of them with stocks. Well, three and a half with stocks. Don't ask what three and a half means. And the rest are the charts, the news, and whatever else. No, not that. Thank you.

And I'm sure you saw the video of a woman on, I can mention this, CNBC. She's doing a hit and her dog's barking. And she said, sorry, you know, when they said, no big deal, it's a dog. We love dogs. Then her husband is walking behind her in his underwear and a shower cap. in the Colbaum offices the office is off limits

one time my dog was barking they could not hear it now on radio you have heard my dog a few times that's because they're in radio you know if he barks he barks what's the biggie

right we love dogs so anyway for those I think how do you where do you get the time I just turn around and look into a laptop. That's my, and I have a nice little digital background from downtown Orlando, and I'm going to add some others.

I've got to do some others, and I have one for the day and night. I've got to come up with others. I know others have their businesses background behind them. I don't mind the downtown background. Of note today, Because I'm a radio and TV guy, I get it asked so many questions on so many things like I'm important. I'm not really, but I'll answer your questions. I got asked a lot about this golf tour because you know I golf.

Here's my opinion on those people going to the other golf tour, which is Saudi Arabia, golf tour. Do whatever the hell they want to do. But wait a minute, Saudi Arabia. didn't they kill that guy Khashoggi? Yeah, I think he did. Do I agree with them going? But do I

They have every right to do whatever the hell they want to do. And what I find objectionable is the hypocrites. You know, the ones that don't give a crap about doing business in China where they have a million people captive. They do. They have, journalists in jail. They're people missing. Oh, but China's okay. Huh. Interesting. Or if you go

Google the words, companies that do business in Saudi Arabia with Saudi Arabia, it's a who's who. I don't see anybody crapping in their pants over those people. Those big companies. I believe in free will as long as you're living within the rule of law. I can disagree with them. Who might Who am I do? And I just love these people on TV, blah, blah, blah, blah. And then you find out they're playing tournaments in China. Wait a minute, China? How dare you?

What else? I got asked about this. Did you see Alexandria Casio-Cortez at the Supreme Court faking like she was being handcuffed behind her back? You know, she started out. and by the way, she's a Marxist, but God bless her. She took out a lifer. She was a bartender, I believe, right? God bless her.

She's nothing but a politician now. That's all. Faking things. She faked being arrested. And when she was caught, up, then she, and the other one did it too. So here's this woman naturally wins and a lot. election, a bartender, disagree with a politics completely, and a lot of the things.

It's just a politician now. That's what happens to all them. They get elected and they go to get reelected the next day. Yeah, raise more money, raise more money, raise more money. Raise more money. No, more money. And then they put us into more debt. And one's worse than the next.

I call her a Marxist, but I got news for you. The Republicans, they're Marxists. What's a Marxist? They're all control freaks. How do I define control freaks? 30 trillion of debt. Brought to you by every single one of them. We give none of them any quarter.

We can't stand any of them. And we've never understood in the last years why anybody would take any side of any of these people. And we know there's issues and this, that, and the other thing. But again, they're screaming each other, they're cursing each other out. I'm telling you, and the back room's laughing there, you know what's off at us.

because it's all our money. That's all they're good at is OPM, other people's money, and guess who other is? That's us. That's all. And you know what? All the evidence is in plain sight. They're not even shamed. They don't care.

This thing with Pelosi and the insider trade, middle finger right at us. And they ain't getting better tomorrow. But speaking of tomorrow, you have a great evening drive carefully. And when you get home to like we do, it's quite simple. make sure you hug your family, hug your children, they will feel better, you will feel better. Exercise, alcohol is overrated. We don't understand why people drink into submission and marijuana completely overrated.

Brought to you by a government that wants to legalize it, but get rid of cigarettes. Don't you love them? Good night all. Until tomorrow. Thanks for joining us. Good night. This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cultbaum on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com.

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