Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Better Day to End Nauseating Week.

Episode Date: May 13, 2022

More Info At: http://garykaltbaum.comMore

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Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for detail. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colbom, your host day.

Thanks for being with us today. Glad you're here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening. It's Friday the 13th. I am not superstitious. I couldn't give a crap. Do you know there are a lot of people that are really,

so superstitious, they will not go out of their house on Friday the 13th. It's true. There are people like that out there. That's amazing. We don't begrudge them, but it's quite amazing if you ask me. Anyway, it is Friday to 13th, and that's that. We have lots to cover, soup to nuts today. There are some days more than others, but we're also going to do,

we call it the keep your feet on the ground exercise keep your motions in check exercise know exactly what's really going on exercise because we had an update today

you know what that means right a bunch of people are going to call the bottom because that's what they do on every update And then they forget. They said they called the bottom 10% ago. Our job is to dig deep and keep your emotions in check and your feet on the ground.

We'll have those thoughts. But first, if you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com. We'll also post it on our Twitter feed. And if you want to join us on Twitter, you go to Twitter and put our name in, and you can press the button also at our website, which is garyk.com, you can also email me. Just be nice. And I have to tell you, I don't get any nasty emails anymore. I haven't had a real nasty email in a very long time.

And I mean nasty. And, you know, being on radio and being on Fox, you never know what you're going to get. but I'm very good at disarming everyone because in disagreement I will respect everyone of course unless you're a crook or one of the owners of my sports team who are doing terribly

I draw the line there which means you know what I think of Jim Dolan who runs the Knicks and owns the Knicks but we move on I want to get right into it on the first thing that happened today, and that is Twitter. On Wednesday, on this radio show,

we did a segment on Twitter and said to you, there's more risk than reward. We said that to you because at the time, the stock had closed 47 and a quarter. And we told you, if the deal gets done at 5420, it would be about 17 or 18% to you. But if the deal did not get done, we thought the stock would be $30. And there's always that chance, especially when you're dealing with Elon Musk.

And that's not a rib on him, but he's been known to, you know, back and forth. And also, his Tesla stock's been getting crushed, partly because, of this. The thought process he's going to be, you know, dealing with Twitter too much and not enough on Tesla, you know, a little, not enough time in the day thing. Elon Musk overnight put out a tweet that the buyout is on hold because of who cares? Go look it up yourself. It was just an excuse. The fact is whenever there's a buyout, there is a period of time, I guess you can call it the lookover. You have to look over what's going on and make sure everything's right and the numbers and all that. So he really didn't have to tweak that out.

But he still did. Why? It's simple. He's not happy buying it at $54.20. He probably heard my radio show when I said, if it wasn't for him, the stock would be 30 now. And maybe even lower because when the stock would be $30. was 31 recently, the NASDAQ was much higher. So little did we know, but the stock load at 40 and three quarters today. I will tell you before the market opened, it was down to 37.

It was 47 and change on Wednesday when we stated that to you. So I don't know how this plays out. We're just going to let you know. This is an opinion. There's no chance he's going to pay $54.20 for the stock. Zero chance. not a shred of a chance. And I just wonder if the deal gets done now. Now, after he saw the stock at 36, 37 bucks, he put out another tweet. He had to cover his arse.

You know what the other tweet was? Not that I'm covering my arse. He put out a tweet still committed to the acquisition. He did not say at what price. So just letting you know, we didn't want to speculate at 47. We're not even going to speculate at 40 and three quarters. Think about this. There's a $54.20.

Suppose a deal out there. It's 40 and three quarters. It ain't going to happen there. So I just wanted to start with Elon Musk. Next. Before we even get in today's market, we want you to remember something. And we really want you to write. This down is one of our rules.

Are you ready? Most of the biggest one-day moves the stock market has ever had is in the crux of a bare market. You got that? Do you know in this recent drawdown over 16-day period where the Dow went from 35-492 to yesterday's low, 31-228, 3,264 points. There was a 900 point up day, a 600 point up day, and a 800 point up day, and a 800 point reversal day during the 3,200 point drop. We need you to remember these things. And why is that?

because all the ignoramus come out on days like today, not ever studying bull and bear markets, ever. And they foist their lack of knowledge onto you, even though they're called experts, yet they haven't spent one minute studying the characteristics of bull and bear markets. Want me to repeat that? Most of, I'm not sure if it's 100%, but it's close, of the biggest one-day moves in the markets

to the upside with during bear markets, and you have great evidence of just the last 17 trading days. Let me repeat this. The Dow has dropped 3,200 points, but during that you had a 900-point day, a 600-point day. So you had two days of 1,500. points out of 16 days, at least 14 days, and you still drop 3,200 points. And, as I stated, a big 800 point reversal day.

Okay. Next, they don't shut up. Those who have listened to me and have found out we were 110% right on the Fed and the central banks, on their stupidity, their ineptitude, and their unwillingness to do the right thing all in the name of, oh, we got to protect the frickin markets. And screw Aunt Mary and Uncle Bob

while that's going on. We don't make this crap up. We report it to you. One of the Fedheads, the worst of, his name's Cash Carry. Wait to you hear what he said. And much more. I have other lessons today.

This is the one only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs,

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Investment advisory services offered through call-bomb Capital Online. management. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreker.

The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads,

meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming.

With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. So, hello. What up? I don't know Neil Cash Carrey. I'm sure he's a nice guy. I'm sure he's a good husband, good father, whatever. It's nothing personal.

He sucks as somebody at the Central Bank, along with the rest of him. One worse than the next. He says today, there's no short-term fixes that are apparent. on supply side issues, the Fed will have to carry more load on in fighting inflation. So he's another one that caused the inflation. When it hit said nothing. When it got worse, said it was transitory. And now they're blaming everything but themselves.

And they're going to fight it. Yet the 10 year is a 2.93 and they're under 1%. Let me explain. They're not even in the ring. I'm going to a Mets game next week. I will be sitting in the stands. I will not be on the playing field. These people at our central bank are in the stands.

They are not on the playing field. And that's why markets are so pissed off. The markets realize these people are a bunch of doofuses, a bunch of morons, a bunch of incompetent boobs that have no idea what's going on, have no idea. the economy, only report the news after it already comes out. What genius is? Little old me, big gigantic Gary the Dufus, predicted all this months in advance. How did we know? What else? There's another Fedhead. Last name is M-E-S-T-E-R. Let me tell you the crap this one said. And I'm not making this up. And I'm thinking to myself,

they can't be this stupid. Can they be this stupid? Can they be this much morons, or is just their head buried in the sand, or they're just lying out their arces at us and to us? Another Fed had said this. Right now, the Fed is withdrawing. That's taken away liquidity.

At a pace that markets, Can C-A-N handle? What? Markets can handle? Hmm. 6% of the NASDAQ is down 90%. 22% of the NASDAQ is down 75%.

50% of the NASDAQ is down 50%. And that's before this week. Markets are handling? Again. either he is a lion's sack of crap, head buried in the sand, or a doofus. And this is one of our central bankers. We're so screwed. I wish I was making this up.

We're so screwed. Next, in the month of March, we had said to you, we thought a low was put in, and on It was March 16th. We had what we call a follow-through day. And what that is is just a characteristic. And Bill O'Neill came up with this follow-through day off of somebody else that said, every bull market or every bull move has started with one of these follow-through days, but not every follow-through day has led to one.

You need leadership. You need good stocks. You need time. You need price. But we had a follow-through day that day. and we actually played it a little bit made a little bit of coin not a lot on that move

but what did we tell you in these subsequent days after that I think I can quote myself and say to you we said to you holy crap there's already frothed in speculation they're buying up GameStop What? They're buying up AMC theaters.

They're buying up the meme stocks that have destroyed wealth. A couple of days off of a brutal low in the market. And what did we say to you? Bare market bottoms have never once in the history of the market started off. with excessive froth and speculation. You got that? And of course, we rallied up for a few days and then were crushed again.

I am letting you know yesterday and today. They were doing it again. And granted, GameStop went from 199 down to 77 in the last five or six weeks. The day we told you, 199, when they announced a split and people were running it up and we told you, So granted, it can bounce.

But volume was really heavy. Yes, they went from 77 to 108 before finishing at 89, and then it was up eight bucks today. And I'm thinking to myself, we just had an even more brutal drawdown, and they're already speculating again. people that have lost their life savings and have probably borrowed from Aunt Mary and Uncle Bob some bucks are at buying the same crap that destroyed their life savings so we're going to tell you again in the history of the markets there has never been a bare market bottom

that started off with froth and speculation you got that that anything is possible going forward but we're just reporting to you real life precedent in the markets that 99.999999% of the world don't even follow or don't even understand and have never worked on it

so we're just letting you know one two rules we've never had a bare market bottom and with excess speculation off the bottom. And the biggest up days throughout the history of the markets, mostly, have been in bare markets. Just want you to remember this as we go forward.

And again, we have such great evidence in the last two months. Excuse me, the last 16 days. My bad. Up next. Today's market. I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination.

Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Firms apply lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker, the platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once,

and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits.

you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.

got to be pleased with that the crowd is just on his feet here he's a Cinderella boy with Gary Colbomb comes highly recommended you're gonna feel better if you talk to him and what once again to Investors Edge uh by the way in another chapter of how did this guy become president of the United States and you know what I thought of the last one you know there's a baby formula shortage I mean this is some serious crap the president was asked about it today. Here was his presidential answer. What am I a mind reader? Remember how they made fun of the last president and some of his answers? This president, moderate Joe, the empathetic, sympathetic, wonderful man, when asked about a big shortage of baby formula, what am I a mind reader?

Really? Such a wonderful guy. moderate Joe, empathetic, sympathetic Joe. Methinks. Methinks. They were just very good at marketing, moderate and sympathetic and empathetic Joe. What am I a mind reader? By the way, during this bare market,

besides what I just said in the last 16 days, and we're just doing the Dow, which by the way is not supposed to move as much as the NASDAQ, On January 24th, there was a 1,277 point reversal. On January 28th, 900 points. 650-point move on January 31st. On February 24th, a 1,000 point reversal. The next day, the Dow was up 800 points.

evidence, just evidence. Next thing I want to mention. HubSpot today was up 15%, leaving it down 59% since December. You get where I'm going with this before we go into the numbers? Macado Libre was up 9.9% today, leaving it 60% below the highs of November. Atlasian, simple team, was up 12% today. This includes today, leaving it 61% below the lows of November. Zebra Tech was up only six in change today, leaving at 45% below the highs. Ooh, here's a good one. Cloudflare, Simple NET, was up 17% today, leaving it 70%

percent below the highs in November. Service now. Yeah, that wasn't up so big today. Four and a half percent. Leaving it only 36 percent below the highs. That's actually a pretty good one. How about Mond God was up 16 percent today, leaving it 52 percent below the highs of November? was up today, 11%, leaving it 65% below the highs. Here's a good one. Bill.com up 18% today, leaving it 66% below the highs. Square! Well, they call it block now.

I don't know why these companies change their names. was up 11% today, leaving it 71% below the highs of last year. Roblox was up 15% today, leaving it 77% below the highs. Shopify was up 13 and changed today, leaving it 7%. 77% below the highs. Alibaba was up 8% today, leaving it 62% below the highs. Why am I doing this with you?

We just want you to keep your feet on the ground and recognize that in bare markets, the oversold bounces can be gigantic for the simple reason why a stock market, that drops from 100 to 20 can bounce up to 30 and you're still down 70% and God bless you if you can catch the one or two day moves. I initially mentioned to you HubSpot. Again, it was up 15% today and maybe it goes higher. It's still down 59%. In January, it rallied from 403 to 596. My rusty abacus says that's nearing 50% in three weeks.

In March, it rallied from 378 to 527. Eh, that's more like 40, low 40s. And it's still dropped down to 355. What do we tell you? The bear market rallies and the individual names can be really vicious. We coined a phrase. We did.

Bare market rallies are sharp. They are quick. They are noisy. They get people talking about them. They make you feel good. They suck you in and just bury you soon after. You got that? Before we get to the numbers, we just wanted to tell you,

CrowdStrike was up 12% today, leaving it 48% below the highs, which begs the question. Well, Gary, Could this be the low? Maybe it's probing the lows and this time it's it. Anything is possible. Nothing is ever guaranteed in the markets.

All we can do is work our tail off and study the characteristics of bull and bear markets to stay one step ahead. Or just in lockstep we're in good shape. And Gary, these things down 80%. Can't they go higher? Can't they just stop here? I mean, they're down 80%. Isn't that overdone? Well, why didn't you ask that at 50 before it went down 60 or 70 or 80?

Because last I looked, 50% is far down also. Heck, 30% is a bad drop. Here's how we take this. Very simple. Today is one day. We've seen this before. We'll let a couple of more cards come out of the deck. As of right now, we have another sharp, quick, makes you feel good.

Hopefully, if it sucks you in, doesn't bury you soon after. We hope the low is in. This would not be how bare markets bottom. What if the Fed pivots? What if they stop? All the expectations. Oh, they're going to be raising rates. I got news for you.

They can take rates from three quarters of percent to two and three quarters in the next meeting. They would just be equivalent to the market. We think it's meaningless. Up next, today's numbers. I'm Gary. This is the one only investors at. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you

by Sprecker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads,

meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today. at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. VentureX offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step

closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. You're listening to.

What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! Investors Edge. With Gary Culper. And welcome once again to Investor's Edge. By the way, before we get into the numbers, just to be fair,

because as you know, when Trump was president, we ripped the administration for the bad things they did and the debt and the deficits. Now we have a different administration, a different party that's got the House and the Senate, so we rip them every day because really Republicans have no control of anything. But we want to rip them today also to make the other side happy for a change, right? And we're only going to rip them a little bit here because deserve it. In case you didn't know, we're giving money to Ukraine. by the way

we are not them government doesn't have a dime they can't turn on a light in the Oval Office without our taxpayer dollars so we're giving them money and some Republicans don't want to give it it's too much it's bad

too much debt we have too much death we're spending too much too much we're spending too much they didn't say a freaking word on the Trump seven trillion bucks debt later. So guess what they have as far as a credibility?

As John Vernon said in Animal House, 0.0. This is why we can't stand any of them. They're just political hacks. All about power. They don't give a crap about us. You do realize both parties are our opponents. They're not our advocates. They're our opponents. Of course, some worse than others. You know, the Marxists, they're insane.

They ain't going to be happy until we're Cuba. And by the way, I say that, not sarcastically. They believe in Cuban-type government. Dictatorships. They're dictators. They want to run everything. But for today, the Republicans, so funny. All of a sudden, they give a crap about debt and deficits and spending.

Oh, look at that. looking at that. They think we forgot four years under Trump. Massive government spending. Massive increase in government spending. Oh, but that was before. We learned our lesson now. You know what I say to the Republicans? Kiss my arse. You know how you get the 30 trillion of debt? Both parties. It's the only way. We move on. The market wrap is brought to you by investment dash models.com. That's Jim Roarback, one of the great market timers. No, gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market with your proprietary indicators, with his proprietary indicators, go check it out.

Investment-models.com. And by the way, we did this whole thing before we gave up the numbers just to keep your feet on the ground because actually, we think we're probably going to go higher. Yesterday we had mentioned was so stretched, extended over soul. We put our webcast the last two days showing how much room there is to rally to play catch-up to what we call the norm of a bear market because you get too far. down, you got to get the counter trend. So we explained it to you up front to be just a little, you know, maybe we got the big

bare market low. But again, we've never seen a bare market low with froth and speculation the same day of the low. And the moves in a bunch of these stocks that have been destroyed. And by the way, just because something's down 80%, does not mean it doesn't stay there. Want you to remember that. So today, the Dow up 466. It gapped open, was up 500.

I don't know what time early in the day. It was only up 150. An oh moment, rallied back up 466. For the week, and I didn't even realize this until I saw it, for the week, the Dow was still down 2.1% 700. The S&P was up 93 today, but was still down 99 points. this week, 2.4%. The NASDAQ, a juicy 434 points,

but was still down 2.8% this week. I didn't even realize that. Just letting you know. The socks up 143, and I'm willing to say something on the socks. It was only down this week, 4 tenths of a percent. And we're seeing a little, what I would call positive relative strength divergence in some of the equipment makers.

Not sure if it's meaningful or not because they're in bare markets, but just let you know. Transport's up 136 and mostly everything was up today. But I also want to tell you that oil is up another four bucks and yields on bonds, which may be topy topping up here and not going to go higher for now, bounced up after a few days down. 2.935 on the 10 year. New yearly highs, I have four. I have H&R block.

I think I saw two shippers and one oil. So on an up 466 day, I got four new highs. In the Dow today, to give you an idea, V's up five. Visa is in just a wide and loose no man's land. United Health bounced up six. And these are your movers. United Health better than most, but still been trashed recently. Nike up five.

I'd like to say that's good news, but it just dropped from 139 to 108 in the last three weeks, bouncing up to 113. Home Depot was up six. I'd like to say that's good news, but it just dropped from 380s. to $290 and rallies up six. Disney was up three. That's just been trashed. Chevron up three.

The big oils are acting fine here, by the way. Salesforce.com was up six. That's only gone from 312 down to 160. Boeing was up four. That just went from 189 down to 123 in three weeks. Amex up 5, 192 down to 153, back up 5, and Apple up 4. Even Apple's been trashed, so we'll need a few more cards coming out of the deck. We'll have webcasts on the whole thing this weekend.

You can join us at garyk.com. The trial, you press on Convictionleaders.com. That said, you have a great weekend. Drive carefully, and when you get home, do like we do, it's quite simple. Make sure you hug your children. Hug your family. They'll feel better. You'll feel better.

I still have not found my checkbook, but I keep looking at the same spots three different times. And until Monday, stay safe, drive carefully, and just enjoy your weekend. Have a good one all. Thanks for joining us. Always humbled by your presence. Bye-bye. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to Gary K.com.

That's Gary K.com. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card, what's in your wallet?

Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.