Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Better Than Yesterday!

Episode Date: May 19, 2022

More Info At: http://garykaltbaum.comMore

This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet?

Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for detail. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colbaum, your host day.

Thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It's Thursday. It's May 19th. It's 2022. And life is not fair. Max Scherza, the pitcher for the Mets, now goes down with an injury. probably out two months.

Pretty much the two best pitchers in baseball on the Mets, now on the Pine. While the Mets are playing unbelievably great ball, life is not fair for us Mets fans. That's all I can say. That's how I have to start the show. I know there are more important things in life. Actually, not many in front of the baseball season. A little sarcasm. But I digress.

Hope you have it a good day. As you know, I'm here in New York City. My son's wedding is Saturday morning. We have guests coming in. I have my office right in front of me. As I tell you, modern technology, it is the greatest. I have three screens in front, actually four screens in front of me, just like I have in my office. never missing a beat.

I got the direct phone line, never missing the beat. I still remember when Margo Vuissich, I believe her last name was, came into my office. I believe it was 1990-something. I don't know what year it was, and she said, hey, we're going to set you up an inter-office email.

And I said, what's that? Amazing. The strides we are. have made just since then. Imagine the strides we're going to make going forward. I always bring up to my kids, Google. When I was a kid, we had the Encyclopedia Britannica, and it was one year old. If I had to look up who was the King of Sweden, there'd be one paragraph. Now, I put up the King of Sweden, It's got his whole life and everything he's done. How to speak Spanish.

Boom. On the web. I do not think our young people know how good they got it, and I do not think they're making use of it. Except the ones on TikTok making a million bucks a year in advertising. God bless them. And then we get to the crux of the matter. We're going to have the bad.

We're going to have the good today as we discuss the markets, the economy. insanity and so much more. If you do not get this radio show, this serious radio show, Investor's Edge with a little comedy injected, if you do not get it in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com. We'll also post it on our Twitter feed, and it goes to all the podcast apps.

If you want to follow us on Twitter, you go to Twitter, put our name in, or Twitter button Gary Cage.com. You can email me. Just be nice. No, really, just be nice. And everybody has been. I have one person calling my office leaving messages at midnight calling me an idiot. That's the worst I have it right now. And I have no clue what we're doing in the markets, that I'm a dumbass. I'm an idiot. That's okay. We don't mind. Not a bother. You know what markets are about? disagreement. So if somebody disagrees, cool, you want to call me a dumb ass, go right ahead.

Not going to affect me. Not going to affect my golf game. And on to the markets. Our audience knows the language we use. If you're new to this show, the language we use is pretty simplistic. There are the major trends in the markets, the forest. And then there's the minor, trends in the markets the trees. When we say to you, we think a near-term rally is at hand, or a low, all it simply means is that the market sector stock we think may have hit a low, but our next line is, but it does not change the major trend and the major trend is bearish and the major trend is down. If anything changes, we'll let you know. So we're going to make some statements today about the forest and the trees. And as we've said to you many times in the last

months, that in bare markets, you will get absolutely no help from Wall Street. So you better be paying attention. Why? We weren't snowing you when we told you. We have spent thousands of hours studying the characteristics and the roadmap of bear markets. We've proven it again. We outlined this before it happened. We stood all over it as it was about to happen. And have walked you through it all the way down, even describing reasons why it would happen, and that's become true.

But that's because the powers that be have been. made it easy for us. They are such the wrong way crowd on everything they do. The problem with that, if they were doing it to themselves, we couldn't care less. The problem is we're their victims. And you're seeing it in droves. We have no hope when it comes to these people. I take no joy in saying that. I take no joy in saying they really do not know what the hell they're doing. we have told you time and time again they're good at two things reporting what already happened that we already knew and taking out another credit card with a higher credit limit to pay for their last credit card that has put us into this position we started talking about this a long time ago

now everybody's come to the realization of what we said way in advance All we did was throw in a little bit of logic. Logic. Throw nine trillion bucks onto the economy and massive spending. So much money chasing nothing. And what do you get? Big inflation. We got big inflation.

If you get big inflation, what next do you get? Recessions. why is that? Well, if the masses can no longer afford, they have to slow down their spending and start to make choices on their spending. Simple as that. When they feel less wealthy, they spend less.

Simple as that. You now have a combination. It used to be a one-two punch, but it's now a one-two-three punch. Number one, massively high prices and for essentials also. Number two, much higher. Interest rates. All loans are tied to interest rates. Car loans, mortgages for houses, credit cards.

The average house, it's a quarter million dollar mortgage. in 10 months, principal and interest, it's gone from 150 to 1,400. Combined with the affordability problem because of all that money printing, and you got that. And then lastly, the wealth effect. Over $30 trillion of global wealth off the highs. only 30 trillion 30 trillion now that's fluid

but that's 30 trillion of buying power around the globe simple as that 401ks imagine you have 80 grand in your 401k six months ago and now it's 60 not going to change your world or is it are you going to think twice

instead of going to Disney World for seven days maybe you're going to go five. That's two less days of spending. Catching my drift. Up next. We'll further those thoughts. We'll do today's market. And the big picture. This is the one only investor's edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services,

including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complimentary portfolio review.

The number to call is 888, 422-5-559. That's 888. 4-2-2-5-5-9. That's 888-4-2-4-2-2-5-5-9. Investment Advisory Services offered through Call-Bomb Capital Management. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. VentureX offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card.

What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. Chevy trucks have you covered when the road takes you from smooth sailing to Chevy Colorado will eat up some of the toughest terrains with five available drive modes. and Silverado and Silverado HD have the muscle to take you out for some series with multiple engine options and impressive towing. While Silverado EV is the perfect combo of performance and capability, making it a snap to hitch up this electric truck and hit the road.

Wherever the road leads, Chevy trucks are right there with you. Click to learn more. Chevrolet, together let's drive. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming.

With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And we're once again to Investors Edge. So we don't do this often. But my buddy, Gil Morales, I don't know if you ever heard of him, but he used to be one of the portfolio managers at O'Neill and Company. Very successful. And I'll tell you what I love about the guy.

he had a couple of lean years. Everybody does and everybody learns from them. And what I love is he doesn't shy away from it and he learned from it and he's just kicking, kicking. So I'm just letting you know. And by the way, he competes with me. I have a newsletter, but I have no problem, especially in these times. If you got a chance, go look up Gilmore Alice and the Gilmo Report. just great stuff. I don't know if they do a trial. I'm not, I don't know, I don't know,

but go check out Gilmohreport.com, G-I-L-M-O report.com. And you know I don't do this often. In fact, I don't think I ever do it. My just highest of recommendations to you guys. His reports been a master class on a keen eye of the markets. And just so you know, I don't get paid to say this. I get no remuneration. Maybe he'll take me to dinner if I'm out in L.A. one time. There is no deal, no nothing. I am telling you this because he's a huge help to me. and I'm dead sure it would be an unbelievable help to you. G-I-L-M-O-Rop.com, you should check it out. Okay, I'll probably make them do a big dinner.

So, for starters, market had another down day today. But we're always, as you know, we scan 1,500 to 2,000 stocks a night. 200 sectors and sub-sectors. Every country, every commodity, whatever we got to look at. We'll look at the currency. Right now, the dollar is important cog in the wheel, if you ask me, especially since I'm going to Wimbledon and the stronger the dollar, the better for me on the pound.

But of course, markets also react to it, and the dollar has soared as of recent, and finally it's pulling back. I think we just said to you recently, we thought the dollar and yields would pull back some. And they are, and it's not because they're bearish, it's just because they went vertical for the most part. What we always try to do also, let me give me an example. So last night when we did our webcast for our members, which you can join at Convictionleaders.com, how we did last night's webcast because so many stocks were down huge. we started with the worst stock dollar movers and went down and we had to stop at like nine because there

was so many stocks down nine dollars a more in an 1100 point day and we just want to show how they bludgeoned target Costco other retail and whatever else showed up so tonight what i'm going to be doing is different As you know, we were right out in front of the topping out of all the growth arena, the higher beta growth arena. And if you don't know what higher beta is, low beta is a utility stock that doesn't move much. Higher beta would be like a Tesla that will move all over the map. They've all been crushed. They had a very strong day today.

What we're going to do tonight is show those. not because oh we want to invest in them because they're in a brutal bear market but we want to just stay in touch with them because we know in bear market rallies some of these bombed out names that let's say have gone from 100 down to 30 they'll rally to 45 and still be down 55% and still be in a bare market but dang bear market rally up 50%. We would love to to catch one or two of those. To be clear, it's not easy. Why? Every day is guess the gap. Are we going to gap up 500 tomorrow? We're going to gap down 500. You do know, just recently, we gapped up 400 points. I think it was two days ago, right? And we dropped a thousand yesterday.

So it's very tough. They're tough to play. And as they rally up, they're out into massive resistance to where they end up being sellable slash shortable. But we still want to just stay in tune and stay in touch just in case. And I started scanning late in the day today. There's some things that actually kind of look interesting. And to be honest, I probably won't play. Why? I don't have any money I got to make back.

I don't want to have to force the issue. I don't want to be the guinea pig. but if we start to see some success, so that's what we're going to do tonight. And of course, we're going to go through the rest. So there was some forest today, and there was some trees, and we'll go through it. But first, the market wrap is brought to you by Investment-Models.com. That's Jim Rohrabach, one of the great market timers. No gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market with his proprietary indicators.

Go check it out. Dashmottles.com, Dow down 237, S&P down 22, but the NASDAQ only down 29. NASDAQ 100 down 52, Apple was down three. And by the way, that's 50 billion of market cap. The transports another 252 after being down 1,000. The market has a problem. Inflation with a contraction. You know they use the word status.

Fagflation will stag means the economy is flat. Contraction means it's actually coming down. That little trifecta I started at the show really worries me. Credit card usage is now skyrocketing. Subprime loan paying back is starting to get later and later. All the characteristics of economic trouble ahead are showing up.

Market is screaming that. We'll continue on this road. Up next. This is the one-only investor's edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect.

Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase. bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker.

The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, Sorry, I can't talk right now. I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen.

Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at Spreaker. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.

The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. We're listening to. America is talking. Investors Edge.

He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. I was at the studios of Fox News and Fox Business this morning. I was on with the great story.

with Barney, and I had a driver back to my hotel. And this guy should be running the central bank. My driver was a genius. He was outlining everything he's been seeing and feeling. What a great understanding of logic this man had. There was one line that he mentioned to me. And by the way, his wife is an assistant vice-principle, of his school district.

He drives. They also do real estate in that they've, I guess they bought places and fixed them up. And it felt like he's, I don't know if the word's well off, but in good shape. He said to me, I don't even know what discretionary spending is anymore.

What a line. saying that with everything that is happening, we're going to concentrate on needs, not wants. Just for now. But what a line. And this is a man that seemed to be in pretty good shape. And I'm thinking to myself, what about these people with the credit cards? What about the people that are in not great shape? that now have to fill up a gas tank for $60 instead of $35 or $40.

It's all relative, but that $25 could be the difference when you add it up over time. And it goes for everything else. He also said to me, you know, I was in the supermarket the other day, and mayonnaise was $5.60 for a jar. And I'm thinking to myself, Look what people are now noticing. Look what people are now noticing. A jar of mayonnaise and the price of mayonnaise.

You get where I'm on for this? You get where I'm going? What is there? How many adults in this country? 250 million? I don't know the exact number. I know this. There's 228 million licensed drivers.

At least that was when I looked online. More and more, they've got to take a step back and make choices on spending. I can promise you just that statement clips a couple of bips off of economic growth. Just that statement. So we're just letting you know the market sees us. The market's onto it. About two or three months ago on this show, We did a couple of shows that we said, this is our economic show because we are really worried about the economy.

We nailed it. It may have been three months ago. Usually we start off market, you know, we said, okay, we're going to do economy today. We nailed it. We saw it, we felt it, we heard it, and now fruition. And we are stunned at the moves in retail stocks. stunned what they did to him yesterday. Goldman Sachs came out today and said,

we see a 20 to 30% chance of recession in 23, or 15 to 30, I think they said. Excuse me, a 30% chance in 12 to 24 months. My exact words on TV today, they're behind by 12 to 24 months. We're there now. and the numbers that come in going forward will prove that out. Oil prices are 109.

Back up two bucks today. Yields that have backed off a little bit still, a 10 year that was at 1 is 2.8 and change. Still low historically, still very high from what the market and the economy is addicted. to. And then the last worry. And I think this probably top small. We warn you that the central bank and government has been playing God with markets and the economy. And there was going to be hell to pay because they really do not know what they are doing. We've been telling you for

eons. In my eyes, they have no credibility. Everybody's now agreeing with us. And the things that have been coming out of them, and by the way, they don't shut up. I can probably read off 100 to 200 quotes just from the last two days from them. They're trying to convince everybody, everything's going to be okay. One wants to believe the good in people and think they're just idiots. I think they're just political animals and they're lying and praying that things get better. But I can promise you hope and prayer does not work. They lit the fuse. They created the bubbles.

They created the inordinate amount of leverage. They created the coins and the SPACs and the 3D stocks. Enabled them all. They created the inflation, and they're still running the freaking show when they have been nothing more than miserable failures. And he just got rewarded and re-nominated as the head of the central bank again. When I say with no jest, no joke, no sarcasm, he shouldn't be running a lemonade stand. Next up, and this is what I'm watching. most now. Housing. We warned you about housing. Guess what's happening now in housing?

Softening pretty well. Guess what I noticed in central Florida in just the last week or two? Big amount of inventory showing up. People selling. The problem for them, they're still with the asinine, ass 10, ass 11 prices. They think they're going to be selling. with heightened prices. We think that game is up. We're going to be watching closely if more inventory shows up, and then if we see nothing's getting sold. Because what happens after that, they start lowering prices.

And in the bubble areas, and there are bubble areas, you know where they are, They will come down quickly. And painfully, we will let you know. The first part of the equation is now happening. Nobody's overbidding each other anymore. And at least some areas I'm looking at, inventory is not just picked up, picked up markedly. I'll be looking at other areas in the days ahead.

I'll be reporting back to you. but I will tell you I don't see how there's any way, shape, or form housing prices get clipped. Do not get clipped. Any way, shape, or form. It's the law of the jungle. Up next, going to cover those high beta stocks. I'm Gary. This is the one only investors' edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card.

Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual. Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds

familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect.

Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. You're listening to. What are we waiting for?

Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! In the guester's edge. with Gary Culper. And walk once again to Investors' Edge. By the way, as I'm looking on my screen here, another one doesn't shut up for the 100th time.

There's a Fedhead cash carry that I'm telling you. He cannot tell you what happened in the world yesterday because he's so bad at predicting. It's the worst. I've never seen anything like it. They're so bad. Quote, I don't know how high rates need to go to bring inflation down. You know what this quote was six months ago?

Inflation is transitory. You know what this quote was three to six months before that? We don't see any inflation on the horizon. And they still don't shut up. They're zero for 101 in their predictions. And they still don't shut up. If I made bets on football and had a radio show on that and I went zero for a hundred.

Oh, I'd be shutting up. It's so nauseating. Big picture, nothing has changed. Overall remain in bare markets. Things that were holding up very, very well, no longer. They came after the consumer staples. And that's a little head scratcher, but then again it isn't. Why?

Because what have we told you? bare markets, they eventually get them all because they got to sell things that are holding up best eventually. They got them. They've murdered the retailers this week. Murder them. Transports this week. Murder the transports this week. The transports this week are down a thousand points. It's like 7%, maybe even 8. Got to get my abacus out. Any changes? I can just tell you shorter term.

Feels like gold. Probably hit a little low here. We'll see how it bounces up. Doesn't change the big trend that it just hit. But feel like the last day or so. Cause and effect? The dollar, the currency. Versus other currencies.

Look like it's probably topped out for now. Short of term stuff here, this is the trees. And that's why I'm always careful about saying that. Short a term, definitely better outperformance in the higher beta stuff that we have highlighted for you for a year that has been absolutely bombed. But as I scan them today, today's action looks like a blip in the drop. but I just want to repeat again good bare market rallies on stocks that drop 50, 60% very often or 30 to 50%.

Still leaving them down 50%, but if we can try and we'll see, they're not easy. But I want you to know that. And we're going to have a laser on them because when we turn, some of them are going to go nuts to the upside.

There are few in there that still have monumental growth. Great earnings, great revenues, but the market clips everything right now. It doesn't matter. Market has no bias in bare markets. They get everything. So just keep that thought in your little file manager. Today may mean nothing.

Just feels like the last week or so, even while the market's been trashed and they've come down also, they feel better than the rest of the market this second in big bear markets. In the Dow today, just want to make note of a few things. Cisco got absolutely trashed on their earnings report. The stock has been a non-event bear market for a decent amount of time. and we just you know

in December it topped out at 64 it's already 41 I want to mention the United Health bounced up 7 but down 20 something yesterday and just the overall tone stinks. Travelers down five today. Walmart

down another three. Apple Apple they finally got it and now it's in support levels going back to last July remember eventually they get them all.

I have nothing redeeming to say about that at the Dow stocks. So just take your time. Don't try to be a hero. Market remains under pressure. Surprises happen to the downside. And I must tell you, while certain indicators are sentiment are definitely extreme bearish, which is a contrary indicator,

which means it should be good for the market. I still question every up day seeing froth and speculation. No, not kidding. On every up day, they're buying GameStop. For example, I am letting you know, bare market bottoms, when they do ultimately bottom, it does not come with any froth and speculation. In fact, all it comes with is a ton of doubt. How do we know?

We've studied every bare market bottom. If anything changes, we'll let you know. Tomorrow, I will be in studio, New York City, Fox Business, with David Asman in Finneal Cavuto, sometime between 12 and 2. Check that out. Maybe I'll be on Fox News at 4 p.m. not sure just yet. That all said, you all have a great evening. You all drive careful.

when you get home, do like we do, and I'll be especially doing it this weekend. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. If you're traveling, travel safe, be well. Same time tomorrow. Have a good night all.

Bye-bye. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's Gary K.com. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. VentureX offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase,

bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.