Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Big Big Day

Episode Date: November 10, 2022

Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com

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Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for detail. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host day.

Thanks for being with us today. Glad you're here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It is Thursday, November 10, 2022. And we're here to talk about you and more of your money, which we really haven't been able to say too much since 2021. Very good day today. But first, if you do not get this show in your city, go to GaryK.com. You can also go to my Twitter feed and follow us. We're all posted it. You can email me also just be nice. We have lots to cover today. Just to give you a two-minute Murphy's Law Day for the family

of Colpom. So I was supposed to fly out tonight. to across the pond some business, some pleasure. Whenever you go across the pond, business and pleasure, of course. And last night we had a hurricane in Orlando, Florida. So they shut the airport down today and they shut down all the flights. So the flights coming from across the pond in Orlando cannot get there. So that was canceled. So after much debate, we decided Miami and what I was going to,

to do. There's a 9.30 flight tonight gets me into London 11 a.m. gives me a chance to watch the market at my office and do whatever I got to do and then drive down and get there a couple of hours early. Of course, we wake up this morning and everything's fine, powers on, and we wake up very early and we, you know, fell back asleep for a half hour. We wake up and the power's off. All well and good, but my wife is on a photo tour in Cambodia today. Yes, my wife is in Cambodia. What she's doing there, I have no idea. And next she goes to Vietnam. But I have an 89-year-old father-in-law. Couldn't leave him behind what to do. Well, we're going to Miami, so we've got cousins in Miami, his cousin, so we drove down early. And of course, it's a good three and a half hours

to get there. Murphy's Law. What's the other part of Murphy's Law? I missed the open today. And no biggie, because there's nothing you can do about an open in the market that's up big or down big. And then I ended up missing most of a very big day. I'm not so I we've seen bigger days than this but this was a real big day and I was thinking and by the way I'm in a lounge now at Miami airport fortunately I have an isolated room you know because I'm a big shot and all that anyway that's a joke and we're looking at the final numbers and I'm thinking how do I want to go through this because as you know we have walked you through a brutal bear market. A gargantuan bear market for many things.

There are hundreds and hundreds of stocks down 50, 60, 70, 80, 90%. All the bubbles have crashed. The latest this week, we're hearing about this guy who runs this FTX. FTX. It's being said that his net worth went from 16 billion to underwater. And we're not making that up. But here's the simplistic story. Simplistic story. Since the end of last year, since the end of last year, yields, interest rates have skyrocketed. Number one, what that does is take valuations

down of everything. Why? Because the cost of capital. goes up for everything. You know what you're facing in mortgage rates now, right? Imagine that throughout the whole food chain. The whole food chain. Number two was the dollar. We've asked you to do a little homework and read, why is a strong dollar bad for our multinationals and stocks? The dollar had soared versus other currencies. Not because we're great shakes, but we're better than them. We have told you there's been a direct correlation, an absolute direct correlation between those two things and stocks.

And in the recent weeks, they both have stopped going up, but they really haven't come down. In recent weeks, we saw the Dow have a very strong move, a very narrow move, while coming into today, the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 were in New Yearly Lows, at New Yearly Lows, with 650 New Yearly Lows and many famous names. That's coming into today. This morning, we had another infuriary low. inflation number. The worry has been inflation. Prices for things continually going up. And that causes interest rates going up, which causes the dollar to go up, which forces the

dollar to go up, which forces the hand of the central bank. It came in decently lower than expected. And what happened is simple, and I want you to listen carefully. You're going to do some homework. tonight. Go look at a chart of the UUP, that is the dollar index. Go look at a chart of the 10-year yield or the five-year or the two-year, and you will see pretty good-looking tops at this juncture. Two days ago, we're already telling you that gold was starting to emerge based on a little weakening of the dollar. Gold had a big day today off of that. That's the story. We're in a lounge right now. We didn't watch TV today. We didn't listen to anybody. We didn't look at anybody. I was on the turnpike most of the day. But we want you to be careful about the bears now coming out and saying,

yeah, but we're going to have a recession and it's going to be bad. And the market's going to turn right back down. We don't want you to listen to that. Why? Because if the direct correlation has been interest rates going up, the dollar going up and everything coming down, guess what the direct correlation today was? The opposite. The opposite. And I will guarantee you there are going to be plenty out there. Talk in recession, talking things down, we're going to pay attention to price. We're not going to pay attention to opinion.

And as always day by day. Why did we have a big day today? I gather, surprise, and it was a strong day. You know what was down today? The boring stuff. The things that were holding up best. Why? for a change

you had what we call a risk on day a risk on day the NASDAQ led what have we been telling you the NASDAQ has been lagging so very good news

I will tell you I have not scanned yet but I have a pretty idea in my mind what things look like and we will describe it you should do some homework tonight on that. A direct correlation. And we'll see where it takes us. Keep in mind we're just getting back the last couple of weeks

today, but in a very good way. I can't even tell when my music's playing, but we're going to try and figure it out. Yes, it's Murphy's Law today, ladies and gentlemen. There it is. Up next, full market stuff. Lots of thoughts. I'm Gary. This is the one-only, Investors Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living,

specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be,

call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-2-5-59. That's 8-8-5-59. That's 888-4-22-55-9. investment advisory services offered through call bomb capital management. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect.

Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show,

Upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. Hey, this promises to be fun.

Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And now we can hate things. So just so you know, to give you an understanding of me, so you have an understanding, it is very rare that I am away from an open market. when I dial in and I say, hey, we're on business in London, well, at 2.30 p.m., tomorrow,

London time, I'll be in front of three screens until the close. Next week, I'll be in Rome. That's 3.30 the market opens in our difference. I'll be in front of the screens. and just so you know, my screens when I'm away are the exact same screens I have in my office. You know, Bill O'Neill, I'm sure you've heard of Mill O'Neill, I-B-D, an icon. He's one guy who never wants to go on vacation. Always has to be in front of a computer, and I've never understood why people just tell him, go on vacation,

and take your stuff with you. So just to give you an idea, today was such a. Murphy's Law. I would have been neck deep into the market today. I don't know if I would have done anything because we gapped open, what, it was 600 points. NASDAQ gaped open 400, I think. Give a take.

Don't quote me on that, but it was up big. And we finished well, why? We call it the pile on. So, very simple. The market wrap is brought to you by Investment-Models.com. That's Jim Rohraback, one of the great market. timers, no gray areas with the man you're either in or out, the market is proprietary indicators.

Go check it out. Investment-models.com. I'm hearing the S&P was up 5%. The NASDAQ 7%, the semiconductors, the socks, 9%. That's today. Now, we always thought, oh, the transports, 5%. The 10-year yield went down to 3.829 from 4.151. That's a big move down.

That's what did the trick. And as I mentioned, the dollar against other currencies. And what you can do is go look at the UUP. And that'll tell you everything you know about the dollar. So we open real hot. And we're always asked about these opens. Well, you know, we've had recently. we had a thousand point reversal in the last week, right?

So people say, oh, come on, 1,200 point. We had a thousand point reversal. 600 yesterday. So you don't know in the middle of the day if they're going to reverse it or not. Instead today, they kept going and going and going and the moves were stunning on a percentage basis. I've yet to do a lot of things, but there were a lot of 5% and 10% moves in a lot of what we call that down and out beta. Facebook was up 10% today. Just remember perspective. That's all we ask.

And do some legwork. Do some homework. Look where things have come from. Look what happened just in the last couple of weeks with some of these names, just absolutely trashed. And I'm looking at some percentage gains today. If I can find them for you, Microsoft. 8%, a Microsoft 8%, Google 7%, Facebook 10%, Netflix 8%, Apple trading terribly, 8%, Amazon 12%,

trading terribly, so with a lot of names, we need to let you know, it's a counter-tren rally. But other areas may be the start of something. When you have a chance, and I took quick glances to

today. Go look at the home builders and Home Depot and Lowe's. Interest rates. Go look at, I haven't looked yet, probably Whirlpool and Sherwin Williams and Moscow, interest rates. Utilities, probably go look at those, interest rates. But that's the story. Need not go further. I want to repeat something. Be careful of the bears here. Just in case, maybe tomorrow we're down a thousand points. But today was a good day. I'm being told volume wasn't that good, and we'll check that out.

Software ETF down, up 9%. That's been trashed. AMD, up 14%. That's been trashed. Broadcomps, 7%. That's been trashed. Adobe, 10%. That's been trashed.

been trashed. Crowdside, 10%. That's been trashed. And as I go through my little screen here on my phone, semiconductors. But you know, it was down today. McDonald's in the Dow. Interesting. United Health. Finally was up at the end of the day. Was down most of the day. Walmart was down a lot of the day. Interesting, huh? So some of the things that were relative strength and leading, they held back today. Why? Those were kind of risk-off names, and we got some risk on today. They even bounced the coins, which have been utterly destroyed. I hope you've been reading about FTX. We want you to learn this stuff. Do your homework. Know what's going on. We read the whole Wall Street Journal every morning. Financial Times. Anything. we can go by and on Twitter we have a bunch of feeds that come towards us from certain places, certain people that are of note that are meaningful to us. Do your homework and why. We know how much money's been lost in the last year to 18 months. We know what's happened. You know how we know.

We've been telling you. We've been warning you. And even with today, just remember, A 50% drop rallying 10%, my abacus, my rusty abacus said still down 45. A 60% drop, 100 down to 40. Back up 10% is still down 56%. A 70% drop down to 30 is still down 67%. We got a lot of that today. That's what you need to be careful about. And I say that because there's a ton of them.

Up next, more on the markets. Whatever else, I'm Gary. This is the one only investors' edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination.

Plus, enjoy access to over one. 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker.

The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousins swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones.

Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet?

Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. see capital one.com for details. We're listening to. America is talking. Investors edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here.

He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. So, on a pretty big day, I'm on the turnpike driving from Orlando down to Miami. Hey, when you are given lemons, you make lemonade, as they say.

And that's what we had to do today. I think I did this, but I'll do it again. The market wrap is brought you by Investment-Dashmodels.com. That's Jim Rohrabach, one of the great market timers. No gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market. With his proprietary indicators, go check it out, Investment-dashmottles.com. I'm going to give you the percentages. First, Dow, 3.7%.

NASDAQ 7.35. I think the NASDAQ, let's say it was down 35% before today. 165.7%. It's still down 30%. Give a take. NASDAQ was up 7.35, NASDAQ 100, 7.49. S&P 5.5. Transports. 5.5. Sox, 10.3.

10.2, I take it back. Stunning. I don't need to do anything else. Apple 9%, AMD, 14%, Amazon 12%, Broadcom, 7%, Adobe, 10%. I'm just thinking of my mind before I scan because I don't leave till 930, and we're doing the show right now at 440. I'll do a lot of scanning. It could be interesting to see what I find.

Remember I mentioned Datadog yesterday where the director bought 50 million bucks worth. That was up 13% today. He made $6.5 million today. You don't buy a stock because an insider buy. You buy a stock hoods you think it's going up. Google 7% into it 9%. MDB down 17%. The stock's been destroyed.

Microsoft 8, Facebook 10, Netflix 8, NET, symbol NET, get this. Up 25% today. Ready for this? To $47. Stock was $2.30 a year ago. Remember what we said. We just want to make an impression. NVIDIA, 14%.

Service now 11%. On semiconductor, 14%. Palo Alto Network, 7%. Roblox, which got destroyed yesterday earnings, 9%. Shopify, 18%. That's down 70%. Financial backrock, 13%.

Bank America, 4, Citigroup 6, Goldman Sachs, 4, JPMorgan 4, Morgan Stanley 6. Schwab was hardly up. MasterCardin Visa 6%. just looking gold two days ago we told you we thought gold was emerging yesterday a little pullback had a wait for today gold was only up 3% the glde what do we tell you the stocks do better than the metal gdx was up 7.5% GdxJ was up 8.5% and as I'm looking at semiconductor

I'm seeing anywhere between 5% and 15%. ASF L up 15%. Another stock that's been destroyed. Excuse me. That's your day. I want to repeat a few things. There's going to be a lot of bears coming out and saying this will not last. You got that?

They are going to say it will not last because there's a recession. coming. Hell is coming. Look out. Here's what we say. Just watch the market. And as of the end of today, another direct correlation between yields

and the dollar. Going up bad, going down good, and they went down big today. And that's it. I'd like to tell you massive great earnings are coming out. I'd like to tell you something gargantually big cap and here's the news inflation drop from 8 to 7.7 that's the big news but much better than expected on this number remember all this

remember all this it's going to be very important if this is going to continue and remember the NASDAQ and the NASDAQ 100 move is off the bare market lows on a gap today. If this is for real, it'll be plentiful. We'll let more cards come out of the deck, but very good day for your 401ks. For the beta. And just so you know what beta is, it's how much move versus the market. High beta is your Teslas. Low beta is your Procter and Gamble's. Yeah, long day. Little coughing. Tomorrow I will be doing the show.

It'll be 9 p.m. London time in front of my three screens. There ain't nothing going to take me away from my three screens tomorrow. I can promise you that. And that was really about today. And remember, we're talking markets here. we can get into popularity contests and everything else we're simply talking markets and what moves them

notice i have not even mentioned the fed not once not once on a day like today they'll let off the hook for a day and we'll see what tomorrow brings good clothes nice finish

lot more work to be done. If things change again, we'll let you know. Gold is on the move and interest rate sensitive. That's been absolute dead money. Maybe revving up. Remember, these things have been trashed. These things have been hit hard. These things have been buried.

And when I tell you 50, 60, 70, 80, 90% down, Oh, I mean it. That's how bad it's been. And I'd be very careful when you see an 80% or up 10% and thinking, oh, everything's a-okay. There'll be some tech people out all happy today that have been telling you to buy all the way down. Be careful. Be very careful. Hopefully we're coming out of this. I'd be thrilled.

But the NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100 again, was it bare market lows right at it coming off of today. Of course on a day, I'm traveling down the turnpike in the middle of a tropical storm. Again, Murphy's Law. Hey, it happens. You income buyers may want to look at buying income now. Why? if yields keep coming down you may get some principal gain

not so short just yet great day I know what else you're thinking Gary you always told us bare markets the biggest days happened during bare markets you're right patterns baby a lot of things starting to come up the right side here

up next we'll wind it up this is the one only investors end This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card.

What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio.

If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it.

This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet?

Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, Ready. Go. In The Gester's Edge with Gary Culpa.

All right, we're going to be a little bit repetitious here today because it's an important day. It's a strong day. I'm getting emailed saying volume wasn't great, but price was pretty darn good. And I'll be the decider when I do my scans. And just so you know, I'm at the airport lounge in Miami. It's 4.50 p.m. my flight's at 9.30.

I'm going to get off this radio show and I'm going to work. And then we'll be flying overnight, getting into London. I'll be in front of my screens at 1.30. Market opens at 2.30 tomorrow. And that's how we roll. Saturday, I'm taking the train to Paris and taking my son to the Normandy

to the D-Day sites. I did it once and I always promise myself I would do it twice and my son wanted a go. So that's what we're going to be doing. I have a little bit of business, believe it or not, I have business in Europe. Hey, we have fans. We're somebody and we'll be back on the 20th. So I want to be repetitious. I want to drive home a couple of things for you.

Because you know if you've been listening to this show, starting in February 21 when all the bubble started bursting, into mid-21 when growth stocks were getting in trouble, into late 21 when the yields top and in November just started crushing everything, and then finally getting, you know, the broader market throughout this whole year where unbelievable soaring interest. rates in the soaring dollar by the way already bought my pounds in my euro so i actually put paid low after today before today we want to make sure you understand that this juncture and it can change correlations change just so you know years ago it used to be the money supply years ago it was the GM indicator many years ago markets follow things then it was the financials can you just financials and then it turned into the semi-conductors. And as you know, that's what matters to us. And we thought the semis were about to make a move recently. And they really made a move today. Up above the 50-day moving average, volume heavy. If the market's going higher, the semis will lead again.

But that's not the point I want to make. We know your surroundings. We know what you're up against. You understand? Sam, we know what's out there. We know the good and bad. We lived it. We've seen it. And we learned a long time ago certain rules that we have taught you about in bare markets. And we're not going to do that today.

We've done that enough. And we'll do it again, I'm sure. But the main rule above all when it comes to you and your money, and price and assets. It's not the news. It's not opinion. It's not the Fed. It's how the markets react to the news and opinion and the Fed.

You know, every now and then you get one person who's so famous that can move markets. Now you have the Fed that move markets with the bubbles. and then you find correlations. As I mentioned, used to be the money supply. Right now it is interest rates in the dollar. And I can tell you yesterday, when the Dow dropped 600, it was purely you can watch the dollar going up throughout the day and the interest rates going up

and the market moving to every beat. It did it again today. That's what we want to pay you to pay attention to and we say that because we have already seen today a bunch. Don't believe it. We're going into recession. It's going to be a deep recession. It's going to be an earnings recession.

We're going to break new lows. This is that and the other thing. Pay attention to the market. When we told you two days ago, gold looks like it was emerging and gold stocks. It was not by happenstance. It was paying attention to the market. gold stocks up 7% today and we work hard at this

and it's not easy to drown out noise pay attention to the market I can promise you if the market wants to keep going up it will be in spite of those opinions that the end of the world's at hand and man there's a lot of that out there that's the impression I want to make a punt

to you tonight And I say that Maybe the dollar skyrockets tomorrow Maybe yields go right back up And maybe the Dow drops a thousand Doubt it We're just letting you know

The direct correlation Was in force The other way today And there's a chance And we'll let more cards Come out of the deck Pretty good top in the dollar here And maybe yields

If that is the case pretty darn good news. Now, eventually, if we do go into a real deep recession, a bad one, I can promise you the market's going to go lower eventually, but right now it's living off of this. And we don't know if we're going to go into a real deep recession. We don't know if we're going into depression. We don't know if we're going to have a debt blow up,

even though we think we do know eventually it's going to happen. We don't know what number. Just when you have a chance tonight, do your home. work. Just Google the words chart of the dollar, chart of the 10 year yield, chart of the S&P 500, and you will see the direct correlation. You all have a great evening. You all drive carefully. And when you get home, do like I do. It's quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise. If you're traveling, travel safe, hopefully Murphy's Law leaves me tonight.

and things get better as I meet my son in Normandy for a great day on Sunday. Take care all. Thanks for joining us. Good night. This has been Investors' Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card.

Venture X offers the premium benefits you. expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.