Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Big breakouts [06.26.2025]

Episode Date: June 26, 2025

https://garykaltbaum.com/

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year for a place to go to their existences. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colbom, your host. A thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening.

It's Thursday. It's June. It's stormy out here right now in Central Florida. Happens pretty much every afternoon. It's the 26th. Hope you're having a good day. As always, we have lots to cover.

We have lots to talk about. Serious talk on everything that affects you. We'll do the markets, the economy. Your job, your industry. Iran, Israel, debt, deficits. Crappy, big, beautiful bills. I mean that. Crappy.

And whatever else comes to mind, but most importantly, the market comes to mind. We have been telling you under no uncertain terms about the strengthening. And what happens if resistance levels get taken out? We have told you that when big indices get taken out to the upside, it invites more buying, Just like when it's taken that down to the downside, it invites more selling. So we're going to start with the market. And let's describe life in general, okay? Let's see what we got going.

We have the media who hates Trump, beyond the beyond, and remains just completely, completely biased against him. The reports every day are negative. They spent four years kissing Biden's butt and never reporting anything bad, but give Trump a colonoscopy every day. So you're not going to hear anything good whatsoever. You have war. You have the United States bomb Iran and their nuclear capability. We've had Israel Hamas. There is worry and talk about recessions, depressions, inflation, deflation. I can go on and on, and it's why I have said to you, you got to ignore the media. They're full of crap. Biased media. Remember that. It's important because the latest, I'm only going to do a minute on this. The latest, the latest,

is they ran with something even though that something was a low confidence assessment trying to make him look bad on the bombing of Iran. Do you remember Afghanistan and Biden? You know why you don't? Because they hardly reported how bad it was

and nightmarish. Do you remember them reporting 10 million people going through the border? No, you don't. The only reason you did hear it was because of Fox and me and others. To them, Trump is the Antichrist, and let's be clear, he's not nice to them, but I want to make sure you keep your focus on the market. and not them reporting the end of the world is at hand. That's the importance here.

So, the markets, we're just going to report to you what happened. First off, on Tuesday, the NASDAQ rallied above the last few weeks tight action, which had it headed to the old highs. The NASDAQ old highs was 2204. It closed today at 2167, a stones throw away. It is doing that without Apple that remains in a bare market, and Apple is like 9 or 8 or whatever percent. Let me see, I got it here somewhere.

Apple is over 9% of the NASDAQ 100. which takes me to the NASDAQ 100. The NASDAQ 100 did exactly what Apple did. Excuse me, the NASDAQ did two days ago. Moved above near-term resistance, looking to take out the old highs, which were 2-2-2-2-2. We closed today at 22447. We edged above it yesterday.

We went more today. The NASDAQ 100 was. up 209 today to 22447. By the way, the NASDAQ up 194 to 2167. And that was without Apple. It was without Tesla that remains on the weak side. And Tesla's in the top 10. So there's some other things going on. Now, as we have said to you, and we want you to listen carefully, there are no guarantees. What we do with our reading of the markets, technical analysis, is we are looking at a photo album for familiar faces. And from the past, we know when big indices break above old highs, especially the old highs that were five, six months ago, it is usually meaningful.

We've been asked the question, what about this gargantuan V shape? Well, that was caused by one man. and it changed his stance. So unless he changes his stance back, I'm not so worried about it. Donald Trump caused the bear and the crash. Donald Trump caused the bottom and the rally, getting rid of those stupid moronic imbecilic tariffs. He'll never tell you that, but we will.

So there's no guarantees, but the NASDAQ 100 has broken out to new highs. without Apple, without Tesla. By the way, without Costco, which is a top 10. So how is that possible? Well, let's see. Microsoft is number two,

Nvidia is number three. They're at new highs. Amazon is four. It's trying. Broadcom is five. That's new highs. Met is number six. That's getting there.

Netflix is number eight. That's there and been strong. And the number 10 is Google, which is not doing that great, but a bunch of them are. And there's your story. On top of that, the semis have been better. And there's been other names that are of import, like Spotify and other sundry things that are out there. So while they're telling you the end of the world is hand and Hitler's running the country, the market's breaking out. the S&P is right there

the new yearly high list is picking up stocks like Goldman Sachs new highs by the way something like that is up 7% this week JP Morgan new highs up 5% this week

what have we told you about big banks when they're doing well it is rare that the markets are not doing well and then you can go underneath the surface and just see some of the worst areas bottoming you have a lot of mid-level moves what does that mean these are stocks not at highs but they were like mid-level of their range and they've been sitting for three weeks and you know what they've done they just broke back above those ranges the stair

steps so we're just letting you know advance the client on the new york with 34 to 7 today NASDAQ 30 to 12 put a couple of zeros the end of those and you get the numbers and as I look Facebook up 17 Netflix up 31 Spotify up 39 Crowd strike up 11 Goldman Sachs up 17 JP Morgan up 5 Microsoft up 5 caterpillar up 10 in the Dow guess what the Dow is up 404 and you know the Dow's doing it without a bunch of names you know about United Health Verizon V's is having a rough going of it. Procter & Gamble, Nike,

Merck, McDonald's, Coke, Johnson & Johnson, Home Depot, Chevron. All these stocks are different levels of bearish phases. Apple, Amgen. So the Dow is laboring versus the S&P and we don't care. We're fine with that.

Even the small and midcaps are trying again, but as we have said to you, they're just much weaker than the rest. Why buy small caps if big caps are stronger? And that's been going on forever. On top of that, we noticed today, other things like copper. We'll explain copper in a second. And much more. This is the one only Investor's Edge.

Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. we manage investors money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals.

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What if I mess up? What if I'm not ready? I see a whole highlight reel of everything I don't want to happen. Missed shots, turnovers, letting my team down. And for a second, there's doubt. But then, I realize I've done enough to be where I'm at. The early mornings, the extra reps, the days I wanted to quit and didn't. So I smile.

Self-doubt is natural, but my smile is a reminder that I'm resilient. To put more smiles, miles out into the world, Colgate has supported female athletes for over 50 years with the Colgate Women's Games. The Colgate Women's Games is the nation's longest running indoor track and field series for girls and women. Colgate, your smile is your strength. For delicious meals, you could go out to eat, or spend hours in the kitchen, or you could just make a Marie Callender's meal. Yeah, you heard me. Marie Callender's classic chicken parmesan bowl is delicious. with scratch-made marinera sauce, creamy mozzarella cheese, and no preservatives.

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Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. Welcome once again to Investors Edge. So when you have a chance, you ask for it. We're doing markets up front every day now. Copper, go look at C-P-E-R, gapped up today coming up the right side. Copper stocks like Freeport MacMaram coming up the right side.

How about Southern Copper coming up the right side? How about tech resources coming up the right side? copper. Why would we ever bring up copper because economic? Maybe telling you something about the economy going forward. Maybe. Just remember, I know what every president says, if the economy's strong, look at what we've done. No, they don't do anything. It's us. We're good. And all we can tell you now, copper is getting into the act. we'll see do I have any complaints no

yields came down today oh I have some complaints on the president today nothing bad but because we will praise them on other things yields came down today oil bounced a little bit that that's been trashed recently you know it's not working

consumer staples like food and beverage that's actually good news why they're recession resistance so if they're not working that's actually good news. But most importantly, semiconductors, big banks, NASDAQ 100, New Yearly Highs,

NASDAQ close, S&P close, Advanced Declines strong, New Yearly High starting to pick up, finally. Markets for giving as we head into July 4th. And then we'll head into earnings season and we'll see what the market has in store. And out of earning season, you know what's going to happen.

You're going to have some stocks gaping up. You're going to have some stocks blowing up. And we'll be ready for anything at that time. Now, one of the biggest questions I'm getting right now is the artificial intelligence stocks are much better after crashing into April. We've been reading up trying to understand it in the best way possible. we have yet to use chat GPT by the way I'm still using Google a search

eventually I'll take some time on a weekend and do that but from what I see it's kind of sort of you know my wife tells me if she has to write a letter it does it for her so I guess there's some good things going on anyway the amount of money they're saying they're going to spend all these companies we'll see how it goes and that's the story of the markets foreign markets in pretty decent shape also though they've had some problems recently and in the case of things like Germany they're in recession and the stock market's still going up

Royal Caribbean cruise lines New Yearly High V-shaped so it's not just tech some of the restaurants are starting to come on energy not the oil but kind of the energy stuff coming on and there you have it What if the NASDAQ 100 tucks its head in like a frightened turtle? That's okay. I wouldn't be surprised to see some pullbacks here and there. I don't think there would be anything wrong with it. In fact, I'd think it would be a no biggie. Why?

Because overall, the market's behaving better. And we tend to not argue with it. We have no interest in arguing with the market. Tomorrow is another day. I gather we're going to have a down day soon, and that'll be just fine. And let me repeat something. Advance the client said I'll give out the full numbers.

3,421 up on the New York, 742 down on the New York. 3,09 up on the NASDAQ, only 1,285 down. That's good stuff. We'll take a bunch more of that going forward, ladies and gentlemen. And one more time, breakouts and indices are usually meaningful. And that is what I got for you. Which takes me to some other part of the equation. We completely disagree with the president.

He doesn't shut up about it. He's now talking about hiring a new Fed head a year before Jay Powell is out in order to force him out. And that is a big problem going forward because this president is wrong on all this. And if he gets a Fed head coming in who kisses his butt and works for him and not for independence, he may lower rates too much and there goes the inflation again. He may have him print money. There goes the inflation again. What do you think of that inflation? Any good?

So I like nothing and just remember, I'm Jay Powell's biggest critic. But the president's wrong on this. He should stay the hell out of it. But the ego and unfortunately all the pundits, it doesn't matter if he wee-weed in the middle of I-95, they'll still say, well, he needed to. We wish him well, and we hope he does the right thing going forward. Just remember that. And by the way, we applaud him on a ton of stuff.

So don't email me with the TDS crap. We just think some of the things I just don't understand. I really do not understand. But I guess when you're the president, you're a billionaire, you think you're omnipotent in every decision you ever make is right. I get it. I understand. I do believe the Fed is going to cut rate soon. I believe in July.

I believe they telegraphed it. But I believe it's only going to be a quarter point and it's not going to be a big deal. It is not going to affect you. It's not going to affect me. It will not affect economy. But maybe I think the market's moving on it right now because the market. market likes easier money, always has, always will. We don't talk money supply here because we don't want to put you to sleep,

but the money supply is flying right now, and markets usually like that. If you want to know what money supply is, go look it up. Go look up M1, M2, M3, and all that crap. I know it would put me to sleep. And that's why we don't even talk the currencies too much either. But our dollar keeps swooning and the markets love it, but I'm P-Oed because I'm headed to Wimbledon, and I got to tell you, I think I'm 1.35 now on the pound.

We were down to like 110. That really sucks. In other words, you're paying 1,350 bucks for every pound when it was 110, like a year ago. Why is the dollar spooning? Not a clue. Up next, what else we got? Got a few more notes and complaints. This is the one only investor's edge.

It always happens right before the whistle. There's a little voice that says, what if I mess up? What if I'm not ready? I see a whole highlight reel of everything I don't want to happen. Missed shots, turnovers, letting my team down. And for a second, there's doubt. But then, I realize I've done enough to be where I'm at.

The early mornings, the extra reps, the days I wanted to quit and didn't. So, I've done. smile? Self-doubt is natural, but my smile is a reminder that I'm resilient. To put more smiles out into the world, Colgate has supported female athletes for over 50 years with the Colgate Women's Games. The Colgate Women's Games is the nation's longest running indoor track and field series for girls and women. Colgate, your smile is your strength. For delicious meals, you could go out to eat, or spend hours in the kitchen, or you could just make a Marie Callender's meal.

Yeah, you heard me. Marie Callender's classic chicken parmesan bowl is delicious with scratch-made marinera sauce, creamy mozzarella cheese, and no preservatives. It's high in protein with 30 grams per serving. Marie Callender's, what having it all tastes like. By the time I hit my 50s, I'd learned a few things, like how family is precious. Work can always wait.

and 99% of people over 50 already have the virus that causes shingles. Not everyone at risk will develop it, but I did. The painful, blistering rash disrupted my life for weeks. Don't learn about your shingles risk the hard way. Talk to your doctor or pharmacist today. Sponsored by GSK. We're listening to America is talking. Investors Edge.

He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just honest. here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. Thanks for being with us. Hope you're having a good day.

It is thundering here in central Florida. We get storms. We get storms. What was it? A few weeks ago. We're one of the homes in our neighborhood got hit by lightning and just, it's over. They've got to take down the whole house. Big fire, gutted the place. I guess they're going to demolition the whole thing and put up a new one. Imagine that.

Imagine that. You're just sitting there. Lightning hits and boom. Dang. And now we're getting into hurricane season here. Oh, gosh. No fun. But at least we can see him coming.

I never, you know, people in Tornado Alley, that cannot be fun because that just stuff comes out of nowhere. So all we're doing right now is sitting back, enjoying what we own, letting the markets do it, and just finding new merchandise. And how do we find new merchandise? Excuse me, stocks that are merging out of nice little ranges on heavy volume. Simple as that. With good earnings and sales, we do not play. Companies with no sales, even though a bunch of them went. crazy to the upside.

We do know because of precedent, they all go back to where they came from if nothing changes. So we tell everybody to be very, very careful. We're now studying this stable coin thing because some of these stable coin stocks have also have gone, wow. I don't understand why we need stable coins. But I guess they're saying that

Amazon or Walmart is thinking about it, they do their own coin, get rid of Mastercard and Visa. I'd like to know how that's going to work. MasterCard and Visa stock has been punished because of that. Two very dependable stocks been punished because of that. We'll keep you on top of that because I've got to tell you, we're trying to figure it out ourselves. What is the shape of things to come as the market was, was right? rallying, we said to you just start paying attention to the new yearly high list. I hope you have because the first things that broke out are working the best. That's how it goes. The market's a race.

It's about strength. And that's for sectors also. As of recent, J.P. Morgan Goldman Sachs, the first. And now others are showing up. Why are the banks working? It's better market. Banks, semiconductors lead markets up and down. It is by no accident. They're leading the market up right now. If they top out and start heading south, that'll be another story. And we'll be on that story for you. But I cannot understate it.

If these big indices continue to hold and break out of range, it's going to invite more buying. And we'll see more and more new highs going forward. in spite of the media. And boy, oh boy, wow. In the news, just speaking of that, have you noticed, and maybe they've earned it everything, every answer they doubt when it's a Republican administration. Democratic administration, they don't care.

It's a shame. The guy from CNN's now writing a book about how the Biden and all the things about Biden and claiming, well, we kind of. They knew. They knew about 10 million coming through the border. They knew about the deaths. People drowning. They knew about people dying the back of trucks. Never reported.

Why would they do that? Can't hurt their side. And speaking on that side, we don't get it. we got a lot of emails on my commentary on this Yutz that may have a chance to win the mayorship of New York City, which begs the question what the hell is the matter with people? He's pretty much called for the death of Israel.

He hates Jews. He's calling for government-owned this, that, and the other thing, which is destroyed countries, let alone cities. He's calling to pay off for free things by taxing the wealthy who are going to move. He wants less police. He's called the police of New York City racist. By the way, we're not opinionizing here. We're telling you facts.

He wants to decriminalize everything. And you already know what's going on in the city. Go into a CVS. Everything's locked up. Everything is locked up. And by the way, you know what they're claiming now? The reason why people are not happy about him is because we have Islamophobia. I couldn't give a crap if this guy was a Martian from Mars.

He's a communist, racist, thug. And I'd say it to his face. In the news, in the news, Social Security. the Social Security bosses, the heads, have set date that America is going to run out of cash for Social Security. Wait a minute. How can that be? They're now saying, well, we both run short of funds to pay full payments, benefits, 2013. How can that be? Didn't you all have money taken out of your check so you could get money later on your Social Security?

How can that be? well because they stole the freaking money and they're using workers of today to pay for and of course because it's government run they did not prepare for the future of people living longer and any time anybody wanted to do something about it they said oh you are throwing grandma off a cliff so just letting you know they're saying 2003 Medicare's hospital insurance trust fund will be unable to fully cover costs beginning in 2013, three years earlier than last year's estimate, as well as the Social Security itself. Have I thrilled you yet? Just letting you know, but don't do anything about it.

Don't do anything about it. Hopefully one day somebody, oh, on that note, annual interest expense on U.S. debt is now reached $1.2 trillion over the last 12 months. the U.S. is paying 3.3 billion a day in interest. They hate us. And Trump and the Republicans are doing nothing about it. They are lying to you and me also. Oh yeah, we're cutting debt by $1.6 trillion over 10 years. Debt's going up $22 trillion over the next 10 years,

and they're cutting $1.6 from $22 trillion. We want you to know this. We want you to know this. None of them care. It's just that the Democrats are Marxists now, and they're just a horror show. At least the Republicans want to keep taxes low. But everything else pisses me off. And it should piss you off, too, because they're lying to you.

I watched the Office of Management and Budget guy on TV the other day. Boy, I wanted to throw darts at the TV. And of course, a first. friendly journalist did not question him about his lies. And now they're telling us, don't worry, growth will take care of it. That's a lie too. Government spending is government spending. Growth doesn't cure that.

Maybe the deficit will be a little bit less because of better growth, and that means more revenue to the Treasury. But it's still going to be $22 trillion over 10 years on the low end. Up next. This, that, and the other thing, or whatever else. This is the one only investor's edge. It always happens right before the whistle. There's a little voice that says,

what if I mess up? What if I'm not ready? I see a whole highlight reel of everything I don't want to happen. Missed shots, turnovers, letting my team down. And for a second, there's doubt. But then, I realize I've done enough to be where I'm at. The early mornings, the extra reps, the days I wanted to quit and didn't.

So, I smile. Self-doubt is natural, but my smile is a reminder that I'm resilient. To put more smiles out into the world, Colgate has supported female athletes for over 50 years with the Colgate Women's Games. The Colgate Women's Games is the nation's longest running indoor track and field series for girls and women. Colgate, your smile is your strength. For delicious meals, you could go out to eat, or spend hours in the day. the kitchen. Or you could just make a Marie Callender's meal. Yeah, you heard me.

Marie Callender's classic chicken parmesan bowl is delicious with scratch-made marinera sauce, creamy mozzarella cheese, and no preservatives. It's high in protein with 30 grams per serving. Marie Callender's, what having it all tastes like. By the time I hit my 50s, I'd learned a few things, like how family is precious. Work can always wait. And 99% of people over 50 already have the virus that causes shingles. Not everyone at risk will develop it, but I did. The painful, blistering rash disrupted my life for weeks. Don't learn about your shingles risk the hard way. Talk to your doctor or pharmacist today. Sponsored by GSK. You're listening to... What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for?

One, two, ready, go. And welcome once again to Investor's Edge. With Gary Culper. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. Well, tomorrow night I'll be flying to London. I'll be doing the radio show next week. I won't be doing the show tomorrow because I got to get to the airport. I will be doing the show. Let's see.

Friday is July 4th. We're off. Thursday is a half day next week. We don't usually do a show on a half day either. Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. I'll be doing the show Monday and Tuesday. Not sure about Wednesday. From London, Monday and Tuesday. It's five hours later there. That's right. I'll be taping at 9 o'clock on Monday and Tuesday. I'm not going to Wimbledon Monday, Tuesday, but. I'm definitely going Thursday. It looks like I'm going Wednesday also. And flying back Friday to New York because Saturday is my grandson's one year birthday. It's been one year already. Reese Daniel Kalbaum.

One year. It's going fast, kids. That's all I can tell you. It is going very fast. Okay, I think it's important to finish the show. Going over what we said from the get-go. NASDAQ 100 is broken into new high ground. The NASDAQ is a stone thrown away and so is the S&P.

The advanced declines are really picking up. The breadth of the market is getting better. The worst areas are also bottoming. You're getting a new yearly high list picking up. Duh, when you get major indices going into new yearly highs, that's a lot of stocks. The best stocks out of the gate are doing the best, as usual. This is in spite of all the news you hear on a daily basis. And by the way, I still think we got some decently sized tariffs up there, don't we?

On least China, I think. Now, I do know July 9th is coming up. There is no way in hell. Trump goes back to Liberation Day because if he does, oh, I'll be screaming. And he don't want me screaming. The big banks leading going into new high ground. I've never seen a bare market or a bad market when that is occurring. You have some growth names on the move.

You have some of the worst stocks coming up the right side. You have an in differing sectors. That's good news. Defensive sectors have been weak and that's good too. I'm not saying defense but defensive like the food and beverage. The Dow is much weaker than the other two because of United Health is still down about 2,000 points from the highs. And there's still about, I'll tell you what, there's still about 10th of, I'll say about 13 out of the 30 Dow stocks that are in bare phases. So some heavy lifting's being done.

For instance, like a Goldman Sachs today was up, let's see, 6-916 and so 42 102, about 110 Dow points itself today. and it is the most important stock in the Dow now because it's the highest price. Just remember in the Dow, a $30 stock is one-tenth as important as a $300 stock. A $30 stock if it goes to zero would be about $190 points. A $300 stock going to zero would be $1,900. Price weighted. We think that's stupid, but what can I tell? A copper is starting to come on.

Maybe something about the economy. Don't worry about the first quarter being down. This second quarter, we're going to have probably a 3%er. And that's because of the import-export thing because of the tariffs. And going forward, the best thing Trump has, Biden had, Obama had, Bush had, Clinton had, is us. and our businesses doing great things. Speaking of Clinton, he congratulated this anti-Semitic piece of crap. Maybe the mayor in New York City, which doubly pisses me off.

I didn't think I can loathe Bill Clinton more than I used to, but let's double that up. And if anything changes in the market, we'll let you know. Bond market is stable. That's good news. We wish the president would shut the hell up over that. and Powell, but that ain't going to happen. Wishful thinking. The AI trade is definitively better.

Even Nvidia broke out to highs. It will not do what it did January 8th of 20204 and go up 90% in two months because it's that much bigger now. And it's tougher to move. But so far, it's been good. Other names in that realm like Broadcom. Good, Taiwan semi, good. Micron reported was just down a buck today and is up 26% from its latest move

and the semiconductors, as we said, was strong. We have no clue what happens tomorrow. We also like the fact there's a lot of doubt. And do you know why there's a lot of doubt? Because the media don't shut the hell up. They're telling you everything at the end of the world. By the way, turn on CNN and MSNBC. MSNBC will tell you you're racist.

and the president's Hitler. And CNN will just, they look like they're constipated anyhow. The market has us. It has our medical industry with terrific medical breakthroughs, the technology industry, with technological advancements, and the hard work of everyone trying to do better for ourselves and our families. That's what's going on. Never forget that.

I was taught that by the great John Templeton. You go look him up. That all said, you'll get, Adam will be on tomorrow, but you have a great evening, drive carefully, and when you get home, do like we do. Quite simple, make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better, you will feel better.

I promise they will, be well. Thanks for joining. Always a pleasure. Good night all. Bye-bye. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com.

By the time I hit my 50s, I'd learned a few things. Like how family is precious. Work can always wait. And 99% of people over 50 already have the virus that causes shingles. Not everyone at risk will develop it, but I did. The painful, blistering rash disrupted my life for weeks. Don't learn about your shingles risk the hard way. Talk to your doctor or pharmacist today.

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