Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - BIG CHANGES

Episode Date: June 23, 2022

More Info At: http://garykaltbaum.comMore

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eBay, things people love. Investors Edge with Gary Cultbaum, straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host day. Thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It is June 23rd, Thursday.

day 2022. Now, let me just state that the Dow today was up six-tenths of 1%. The S&P was up a little less than 1%. The NASDAQ was up about, let's call it 1.5%. But the semiconductor index was down about 6 tenths of 1%. Interesting. Why am I starting this way? Well, we're just going to work backwards a few days and bring it into today. The changes we were telling you a few days ago that we thought inflation was peaking. Not because we're geniuses, but because we saw oil prices dropping. Not because we're geniuses, but because we saw cotton and copper and corn and soybeans and wheat, all topping out, some topping out badly.

But as we told you, we never know how much, how far, how long, we really don't. We also told you that yields look like they were, and we use the exact, we know our exact terminology, topping for now. That's the terminology we use. And we use the term for now because life is a moving target. And as we said to you, it was more of a pullback than a big top in yields. We also went on to say, well, we think we're in recession. And I got news for you.

It's an overused word. What do I mean by that? Well, all a recession is that economic, gross domestic product is down for the quarter and for two straight quarters. But we've had recessions before. they're not the biggest of deals it's the big bad recessions the deep recessions the recessions that get people a ton of people fired those are real bad the recessions that last a long while those are bad but we went and had to go against the grain starting the last few days what's everybody reporting. Inflation, inflation, inflation. Well, we started predicting that ages ago. Now we think

it's turned. To what extent? Not sure. But man, oh man. Inflation heading south deepened today. And what would that mean? Well, let me start out by saying back in October, November, everything just about everything we purchase started to skyrocket and indeed skyrocketed everything we use petroleum with skyrocketed yields to account for that inflation skyrocketed it rocketed that's not a word it's rocket idd I had two ids the people that are supposed to mind that and think about it and worry about it didn't know what the hell was going on we did because of all that asset prices tumbled and tumbled in a big way sector by sector stock by stock inch by inch leading to some stunning drops leading to bubbles popping all over the

And we've gone through this process of a brutal bare market. Brutal! Which led us to the last few weeks. The first thing we started to notice, oh, some of these commodities are topping. Oh, steel looks like it topped. Oh, aluminum looked like it topped. And they did.

And then they worsened. and then the shippers topped and then a few oil stocks topped and we noted it for you then all the oils topped and then oil prices topped and I will tell you for the record another big drop today

in everything we pay for the opposite of what started happening in October November of last year and what we saw last week when we started to eye this number one price movement. And it didn't just start last week. Some of these commodities topped out a couple of months back.

Steel started topping out early May. For instance. So if in October, November of last year, all these prices started skyrocketing, and the cost to borrow skyrocketed, And asset prices because of that dropped markedly. What's the potential for the opposite? Isn't that a darn good question?

It's a darn good question. But not exactly the one-for-one answer. Remember, the reason for these prices dropping is because of a big, big slowdown in economic growth. So guess what it's time to do? Pick it apart. What are the beneficiaries? What are not the beneficiaries of lower prices? And we'll call it a down draft in the economy for now. we're going to have a lot of that today. And we must tell you, we're stunned.

We are stunned by some of the moves afoot. Not up, but we'll talk about some up stocks today, but down. As the latest victims of this market is everything commodity and commodity based. And we gave you the warning shots. Not knowing, man, they would just smoke them. Just absolutely smoke them.

So in the time allotted today, which is not a lot of time, we'll be pointed, we'll be specific. We'll have it on our webcast tonight on what we're seeing. knowing that we are thrilled that in the next week, the two weeks, if nothing changes, the price at your pump will be down about 40 to 50 cents. If nothing changes. We're just going by price today. And of course, that is fluid.

So as always, I'm Gary Kalbaum. This is Investor's Edge, serious talk on your. you and your money with a little comedy injected every now and then, can't have a lot of comedy as of recent. And all we do is hope to stay in gear. If we're one step ahead, that's all we need. Because frankly, if we're just in lockstep, that's all we need. And I must tell you, quite the few and one of the most famous people, financial people, was telling you last week, buy the oils where we were telling you they were topping that's why we do what we do

because as we have told you when markets are rough and tough you're not going to get any help from Wall Street not a lick quite the unfortunate and you're certainly not going to get any help from the powers that be as they pretty much and I say with no joy not a clue as to what the heck is going on They don't state anything anymore.

They pray for everything now. Up next, full market wrap. This is the one-only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed.

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Toyota trucks. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this.

And well, once again, to Investors Edge. So, it was kind of all over the map again today, but the market finished on a good note. The market wrap is brought to you by investment dash models. Well, let me take that back. Some of the market finished on a good note. And the market wrap is brought to you by Investments. Investment dash models.com. That's Jim Roarback, one of the great market timers.

No gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market. It's proprietary indicators. Go check it out. Investment dash models.com. Dout 1-94. S&P up 35, NASDAQ 179, NASDAQ 100, 169, but the SOX was down 16. Transport's up in Measley, 117. Advance declines 2417 on New York, 2716 on the NASDAQ.

New highs, hardly any. There was still 547 new lows. And you know what I bet I find if I look at new lows? Believe it or not, new yearly lows will have oils on it, though two weeks ago they were at highs. That's how bad they have dropped. Okay, so listen carefully. Since the beginning of the year, we were telling you if you had to be overweight, energy, some commodities, smattering. We love that word smattering, even though we have no idea what it means.

In a few other areas. What are the worst areas now? Energy. Commodities. Listen carefully. Shippers. Remember for a while we were saying these were the leading groups. The shippers of everything. Let me finish again or start again. Energy, commodities, and shippers. Huh. What else? Very much economically sensitive names. Huh. Travel related. Huh. Travel related.

But wait a minute. Oil prices are coming down. Oh yeah. If the economy goes in the crapper, guess what gets affected? It's called a discretionary spending, the ones you get to make a decision on versus non-discretionary the things you need. Finanials. Isn't it better when interest rates come down for financials?

No, because right now short-term rates are going up and long-term rates are coming down. That squeezes the margins. You know what else these institutions have to do now, which were they hadn't do in a long time? They've got to pay you on your money. Semiconductors. Wait a minute, hold on. Well, guess what? Semiconductors are really economically sensitive.

you do know they go into cars, a crap load of cars, your phones, your smartphones, I mean, your toasters, you're everything. Today, oil prices down more. Oil stocks had another very rough day. With the Dow up 194, the OIH was down about almost 6%, the XOP was down about 4%. The XLE was down about 4% also. Those are the exchange traded funds. Cotton, BAL, it's a cotton exchange traded fund. Finish down $8.5.5 to $67.5. Soybeans, wheat, lumber, coffee, copper, steel, gold,

amazing. The gold bugs must be ripping their hair out. They couldn't get it going with inflation, and now that inflation is moderating, They can't get it going with that. Stunning. Remember what I told you. If you would ask me a long time ago, I would have said gold would be $10,000.

That's why we watch price. So all these areas of this market, not a good day. Caterpillar today with the Dowup 194 was down nine. Deer was down 20. Agco was down nine. What would that be?

guess what they do they get all the stuff that's moved to them and if things are slow and markedly and they're economically sensitive machinery heavy machinery industrials so just letting you know that worsened today that area

worsened today a stunning change of complexion in in weeks now up until about three or four days ago. Well, we hit a low in the market last Thursday and Friday. That low came from, get this, and over 13% drop in the NASDAQ in seven days,

more than a 12% in the S&P, more than 10% in the Dow. So you'd no matter what are going to get bounces, Out of that, but we are now in selective world, as they weren't bouncing the names I just told you about. What are they bouncing? Well, if in fact, in October, November, they topped the hell out of all the growth arena because of what we told you. And what we told you, the opposite's happening. well the NASDAQ was up 179 today

and that's without the semis which were down 17 and by the way the semis were down 50 to a late punch to the upside at the close so a good day for what we call the blasted melted down higher beta growthy type software and all that other stuff

very good day keep in mind a lot of these names are down 70% from the highs they may be trying at this juncture still need a ton of work

but a definitive good day we've yet to do our scans some things better than others but possibly a move afoot we'll see we'll see of the big news

they bounced Apple three bucks still looks like crap you know and that's $48 billion in market cap and all Apple's doing is count the trend move Amazon was up three in change today

which is 70 Amazon points counter trend move Google was up 15 counter trend move and what's a counter trend Oh, down 100, up 20. Up next, we'll continue with this.

Lots to cover. Thanks for being here. I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. Struggling to see up close, make it visible with Viz. Viz is a once daily prescription eye drop to treat blurry near vision for up to 10 hours. The most common side effects that may be experienced while using Viz include eye irritation, temporary dimmer, dark vision, headaches and eye redness. Talk to an eye doctor to learn if Viz is right for you. Learn more at Viz.com.

The world isn't getting any calmer. Economic instability, global conflicts, and record national debt have created an environment where financial uncertainty is a part of everyday life. And while none of us can control those forces, we can control how prepared we are for them. Market swings are hitting retirement accounts and savings harder than ever, leaving many Americans wondering how to protect what they've built. That's why people are exploring physical gold and silver as a part of a broader strategy. These are tangible assets with a long history of being used when confidence in traditional markets waivers. They're not a promise of returns and they're not a replacement for existing investments. They're simply another tool to help diversify our portfolio.

Preserve gold provides clear educational guidance to help you understand how precious metals can play a role in long-term planning, including options for holding them in an IRA. For your free wealth protection guide, text IHeart to 50505. And with a qualified purchase, you could receive up to $15,000 in free gold or silver. Simply text IHeart to 50505. With the power and endurance of Toyota trucks, you can go to the most incredible places, like this valley, where the echo does different voices. Hello! Hello!

We know what we're made of, Toyota Trucks. We're listening to. America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb.

It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. Let me just mention. something we had mentioned to you in the past. We have been stunned how so many people have been taking their salaries in coins. Just stunned. And we do not know to this day how much of salaries were taken in coins. But we were looking at some of the numbers. Trevor Lawrence, the quarterback Jacksonville Jaguars. And we told you, we emailed. the team

to get to him and his agent please don't do that and we never got through and we didn't we could have gotten through probably we did it once and we're not going to spend our time Trevor Lawrence

took in 24 million if he did it all in Bitcoin it'd be an 8.96 million down 62.7%. Russell Okung I believe he's a defensive player. I'm not sure with who. 6.5 million in Bitcoin. From when he did it, he'd be down 2.5 million.

Sequin Barclay, my bud, from the Giants. 10 million. Oh, it even has the dates. From July 15th, 21. That 10 million is down 33.4%. Unbelievable to watch all this. To think. You know, we only see these athletes on the playing field.

Do you know how much practice they go through? And sweat and toil and injury. To think that they put their money and salary into bubbles. So depressing. So depressing. I'm in hopes once they started seeing it head south that they got out. Others take joy in others losing. We're the opposite.

I don't want my biggest enemy losing his ass, though I have no big enemies that I know of. I've had people come up to me and say, you're on Fox and you suck. Straight to my face. And you know me. I appreciate you watching. and they get mad when I say that.

You got to answer stuff like that with, I appreciate you watching. I hope you're doing well. Good health to you. Be well. My favorite one, years ago, I was going to Ireland on a golf trip with a bunch of buddies. The fish man was with me,

who's basically a scratch golfer now. And we were stopped in Philadelphia to get on our next flight. And in front of me was a couple. I'm going to say they were in the late 50s and kind of hippie-ish. You ever meet somebody in his late 50s that kind of dresses and looks hippie-ish? The husband turns around and says, I recognize you from Fox. And from this, I learned the lesson when anybody ever does that, I would first say, do you like Fox? And if they say, yes, well, yeah, that's me.

And I wasn't smart enough at that time. And I just said, yeah, that's me. right in front of my friends we hate Fox we hate you we hate everything you stand for and as usual being my usual self have we ever met and whatever I had to stand for 15 minutes in line

as he was standing in front of me and he turns and that was the end of that I laughed when he went into subcoach and I walked into first class anyway and no I'm not an elitist but for long trips I have to get the late down seats. Anyway, so that's what we deal with, as an aside, by the way. And back on the sympathy,

man, oh man, on Twitter people making fun of others losing money. I don't, I feel sympathy even for the jackasses that lose money. And you know there's a bunch of jackasses out there, right? All right, back on point. So a gargantuan split tape today, a bunch of areas heading south on I-95, and then these bombed-out areas north on 95 today. But when I say bombed out, we're not talking bare markets. We're talking gargantuan bare markets. We hope they're ending. Now, some of these 70, 80% stocks are never going back to the highs. But man, I saw one today that's up 100% off the lows. Still 70% off the highs. That's how bad it's been. Remember, if something goes from 100 down to 20 and it goes to 40, it's still down 60%. But man, we would love to catch those,

even though there's no leadership whatsoever. I've got a handful of names that are... You ready for symbols? We'll even give them to you. And we are not advocating buying, selling, shorting, and covering them, and we don't own any. Symbol FNKO, new yearly high.

They have pop culture products. Whatever that is. Symbol go. Go. It's a grocery store. Symbol L-I. Yearly highs. This is a China-based

smart electric SUVs and they do like $4 billion in revenues they don't make a lot of money though but I can count on a hand how many stocks are like that the ones I'm going to do in my webcast tonight let's see I'm going to pick out one

Shopify up 25 bucks today to 363 wish I bought it yesterday it was 17663 in November That's what we mean. Square was up 6 today to 67. It's 10% move, 11% move. It closed at 67 today.

It was 289 last August. Stunning. And that's square a name people have heard of. PayPal! That wasn't even up today. It was up 1%. That's bad. Bad, bad if you're only up 1% today

in the high beta. arena. Anyway, you get my point. And the IGV, that is the software exchange traded fund, was up 3.6% to 277. The high was 449 in November. Dang. That's a lot of cake. What is that, about 40% off the highs? Yeah, about 40%. And that's the index, which includes Microsoft, which is down much less than everything else because it's the big name. So I'm just letting you know, man, oh man, big divergences today. And it's time to accentuate the good, ignore the bad, and it's a complete flip-flop from what we had seen for months.

We hope the inflation trade is over. Inflation sucks. We'll see how it plays out. And of course, if we all, in recession and Ronald Reagan once said a recession is if your neighbor loses his job, his or her job, a depression is when you lose your job. To me it's not a big deal if we have another quarter of down GDP. It's a big deal if we have a bunch of them and if we start to see numbers in the twos and the threes and the fours down. That would be bad freaking news.

and that's on a real life reason, not a statistical reason. And we heard of more layoffs today in some other companies. I've yet to see massive layoffs. Just selective. We'll let you know if that changes. The fact that yields are coming down and prices are coming down, I think could be a big help. So, complexion changing.

We have no idea of duration. We have no idea how much. We just know it started last week. We warned you to it. And we said to you then, we don't know how much, but it gained teeth today. Up next, this, that, and the other thing. Or something like that.

It's the NBA draft tonight. I'm Gary. This is the one known the investor's edge. Struggling to see up close, make it visible with Viz. Viz is a once daily prescription eye drop to treat blurry near vision for up to 10 hours. The most common side effects that may be experienced while using Viz include eye irritation, temporary dimmer, dark vision, headaches and eye redness. Talk to an eye doctor to learn if Viz is right for you. Learn more at Viz.com. The world isn't getting any calmer.

Economic instability, global conflicts, and record national debt have created an environment where financial uncertainty is a part of everyday life. And while none of us can control those forces, we can control how prepared we are for them. Market swings are hitting retirement accounts and savings harder than ever, leaving many Americans wondering how to protect what they've built. That's why people are exploring physical gold and silver as a part of a broader strategy. These are tangible assets with a long history of being used when confidence in traditional markets' waivers. They're not a promise of returns and they're not a replacement for existing investments. They're simply another tool to help diversify our portfolio.

Preserve gold provides clear educational guidance to help you understand how precious metals can play a role in long-term planning, including options for holding them in an IRA. For your free wealth protection guide, text IHeart to 50505. And with a qualified purchase, you could receive up to $15,000 in free gold or silver. Simply text IHeart to 50505. With the power and endurance of Toyota trucks, you can go to the most incredible places, like this valley where the Echo does different voices. Hello! Hello! We know what we're made of, Toyota Trucks.

You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! In The Gester's Edge. With Gary Culper. All right.

So, listen carefully. The political pundits need to keep talking about high inflation. You know that, right? It's bad for a certain Marxist party. And that's not sarcasm, by the way. They are going to have to pivot to recession. If you keep hearing them talking about inflation, they're not telling you the truth.

Inflation is all about prices of what we pay for. they're all coming down the problem is it's not i don't it is not for a good reason it's for a worrisome reason and it's simple the economy whether it's lumber cotton copper corn steel wheat soybeans all look to be topped we thought it yesterday it got accentuated today now we have to see will we get follow through

remember what I just said off the lows on all this dead stuff will we get follow through I do not know I do not know what tomorrow brings we just want to get the big picture right which has changed for the inflation trade we're not sure about the rest, but we do like sitting back and writing down 1 plus 1 equals 2. So if housing stocks and housing related stocks have been trashed because of higher rates and rates are coming down, guess what?

Started to move today. Housing stocks. Now just keep in mind, it's nothing more right now than a countertrend moved after the recent trashing. But it is something of note. If we're going into recession, what about recession-resistant-resistant stocks? They've had a better couple of days. Food, beverage, tobacco, household products, drugs. Oh, by the way, speaking of tobacco, did you see now they are attacking tobacco in cigarettes?

They want less tobacco or something like that? How is a government logical when they want to legalize marijuana but get rid of cigarettes? Have you ever seen more logical morons in your life? Marijuana good? Cigarettes bad? Somebody is going to have to explain that one to me. It's all bad. What else one plus one equals two?

How about restaurants? Hmm. If food prices are coming down, their cost to get comes down. Huh. Something to watch. Of course, if the economy really goes into recession, unemployment goes up, who wants to go to a restaurant? Again, notice we're batting the ball back and forth here. Oil prices coming down.

What about airlines and cruise lines? Yeah, but. their expenses come down, but what if less people, fly, and cruise? Ah, bouncing the ball back and forth. Remember, we asked the questions. Housing related, what about Home Depot and Lowe's? And Pool Inc. And Sherwin Williams and Masco.

Guess what? They were up today. So a lot of moving parts right now. We'll hope to keep you in good stead, but man, it's wicked out there. I do want to let you know tomorrow I'm flying out. We're going to do everything possible to tape a show middle of the day. We're not going to do a show after the close tomorrow. Though there is that shot because I can do it now off my iPhone,

and it still comes in pretty good. next week I will be in Europe working we bring our three screens along with us they are quite mobile

and the market opens let's see in London I think at 230 where we're going after that 330 so we'll be with the markets

and we will make sure most of the days we do the show and especially with the market changing gears like crazy right now and who knows what tomorrow brings. We'll stay on top of it. And if our good man, Adam Sarhan, does the show on occasion next week, we will make sure he has a bunch of notes from us and our thoughts.

And we will do our webcasts every night no matter what for our members because that's like at 11 o'clock at night during Europe time. So I don't know if we've ever seen such wicked back and forth and changing of the guard. We probably have, but not sure I can remember. My scans tonight are going to be very easy on the downside stuff. Not as easy on the upside. Why? Because they're all bombed out.

And we mean bombed out. When I tell you a great company like Intuit is up $20. today to 400. What was 717 in November? It's bombed. Actually, that's not as bad as most. That's what we're talking about. So, going to get interesting.

And again, hopefully, we'll be able to do the show tomorrow at a decent time. We'll be on with the Neil Cavuto tomorrow in the 12th of 2 on Fox Business. Don't miss that. And until tomorrow, you have a great evening and drive carefully. And when you do get home, do like we. do, it is quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children.

They will feel better. You will feel better. Work hard, play hard, and enjoy every day. Because guess what? Once the day is gone, you never get it back. Have a great one, everybody. Bye-bye. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk.

To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. With the power and endurance of Toyota trucks, you can go to the most incredible places, like this valley, where the echo does different voices. Hello! Hello! Hello! We know what we're made of, Toyota Trucks. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card.

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