Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Big Inflation Number

Episode Date: July 13, 2022

More Info At: http://garykaltbaum.comMore

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And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colpom, your host day. Thanks of being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It's July, yeah, all right, 13th, 2020. And do you know at 1030 a.m. this morning, I thought it was Tuesday. It took a producer of one of the Fox shows to let me know, by the way, you know it's Wednesday. I don't drink.

I don't do drugs. That's what happened today. Ladies and gentlemen, I promised myself years ago that whenever I talk to you, I was going to do it in a way that is easily and easy to understand. and I don't say that because I tower over you. I say that if somebody is going to discuss with me how to fix a car engine, you get my point? So today you are being inundated, inundated,

with an inflation number that came out today. The worst number since 1981. While we've been telling you on this show, inflation peaked. How is that possible? How is it possible that they came out with June consumer prices today, 9.1% from a year ago, but I'm telling you, inflation has peaked. It's simple. That was a number from June.

and does not get everything factored in. Let me read something to you. Lumber, down 58% from the highs. Nickel, 54%, aluminum, 37%, natural gas, 31%, steel, 28%. By the way, steel actually was kind of sort of the first thing that topped out in April. Wheat, 28%, zinc, 25%, lead, 23%, copper, 22%, soybeans 18%, corn 16%, cotton 14%, cocoa 14%, oil 13%, that would be an important one.

OJ, you remember from trading places, the orange juice futures, down 11% from the highs. So what's the story? Did we have the worst inflation number ever or is inflation peaked? Well, let's talk about it. number one what I just told you is not everything there's inflation factored in like rent use cars cars homes all kinds of crap rent keeps going up I'm letting you know a commodity inflation is peaked you are seeing it in the pump everywhere it is going to be factored in going forward and everything else I just reported to you. And a bunch of that is food also. Once it gets into the system, if these prices

stay down, the inflation numbers will moderate. But what's the next problem? If 9% moderates down to 6 or even 5, 5 is too high. For an economy that's used to 1. Just so you know, year over year, meats up 8%, eggs up 33%, fish up 11%, milk up 16%, fruit up 8%, coffee up 15%. year over year. But as we stated, the last month or two, it's starting to come down. We will let you know if prices start going back up again. we will let you know if it sticks and we will let you know if companies are bringing prices down along with their costs.

You know, we always talk about, you know, it just seems that gas prices go up a lot quicker than they come down. But the story is once they have the gas there, they have to sell the price they paid. We'll see. Every body is now talking about our central bank. How are they going to react? to this terrible inflation number, but was interesting today. Just interesting.

Yields came down. 10-year, 2.904 down .54 today. Why would yields come down on a bad inflation number? Don't know it's just one day. But we are just letting you know, be careful of the things you hear. We deal in reality here. And often numbers that come out from government.

A or flawed, B or BS, or C late in the game. And as I have told you, you know what our wonderful government has done through the years? Through the years they have changed the formula on inflation to make it lower than it used to be. I got news to the inflation would be much worse if you just went by how they used the formula back in the year 1990. And of course, they made the GDP numbers better than they used to be with their new formula. You think they don't rig the game? Anyway, we just want to let you know you're seeing it at the pump. I saw 398 here in Orlando, Florida.

Now, of course, in some communist states, it's a lot higher with their ridiculous amount of gas taxes and whatever else they put in there. And I think the average around the country is 460-something. because of that, but they're coming down. And let's hope it continues, because no fun. And I do the food shopping in my home. And I can tell you, wow, wow, wow, prices compared to a year or two ago. Wow, we'll keep in touch. We just want to make sure you hurt from us,

because we know what you're hearing from them. And as you know, we're dealing with moving targets here, and we will keep you up to date. That all said, I'm Gary Kaltbaum. This is Investors' Edge. Serious talk on you and everything that affects you. The markets, the economy, your jobs, employment, them in D.C. And everything else, what a little comedy injected would need be. But in bare markets, little less comedy because this is some serious stuff going on right now.

If you do not get this radio show in your city, we post it at garyk.com. We also post in our Twitter feed. You should be following us on Twitter. Just go there, put it in our name, or press the button at garyk.com. You can email me, just be nice. Sarcasm's okay. Mean is not so good. The good news is we have no more meanies.

We used to have meanies. Everybody's very respectful. I get along with everyone. Why? Because I respect everyone, even if I completely disagree with their themes. Who don't I respect? Them. You know, them are opponents. Them are opponents.

All the politicians in D.C. that have taken us to over 30 trillion of debt, massive deficits, ridiculous stupidity with Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, that they tell you how great they are, but they're nothing but BS Ponzi schemes. They really are. yeah, but they take care of us. Yeah, who pays for it? We do. And there's massive debt in the system. And you know what we think of Social Security. The retirees of today are not getting paid with their own money. They're getting paid of workers today's money because they stole all the retirees monies throughout the years. No, really. Brought to you by them. You would never use to taxed on Social Security, right? Guess who started taxed in Social Security? I believe right. I believe right.

around the Gore Clinton, right around there. And I believe it was Republicans and Democrats that came up with it. And I can go on and on. And the numbers to pay into Social Security on taxes has gone up markedly throughout the years. And why? Because they didn't prepare for the demographics. And it's going to get worse. Oh, going forward. And we can never change Social Security. Why? Because what I just told you, you retirees are not getting paid with your old money. They stole it. They stole it. They spent it. Remember they used to tell us it was in a lockbox? They lied to you. It's not in a lockbox. It's gone. It's gone. So workers today pay the retirees of yesterday. It should never have been that way. And if they just did something without government back then, for savings, you own it, you can't touch it. And just take it. And just take it. year bonds, you'd have 10 times more than you have now, and you have control of it, not a check from them.

You know, them who brought us the $30 trillion. Why am I pissed? Start with that. Up next, market wrap, news of the day, much more today. I'm Gary. This is the one only Investors Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalpom, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people.

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stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU. APU.org On eBay, every find has a story, like if you're looking for a vintage band tea, not just a tea, the band tea, from the last show your favorite band, played. You wore it everywhere. Then, your BFF started glaring it, which is cute, until they unfriended you and took it with them, which was not so cute. Anyway, now you're on eBay. And there it is, same T from the same tour. Still living in your memory, rent-free forever. See, the things you love have a way of finding their way back to you. But eBay isn't just forgetting whatever your ex-BFF stole back. It's also for that rare championship foul.

ball you caught, then heroically gave to the kid next to you. And where else are you going to find your first car? The one you wish you'd never sold, but now, you finally get the chance to take back home for good this time. Shop eBay for millions of fines, each with a story. eBay, things people love. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. Bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this.

And welcome once again to Investors Edge. One of those days in the market where we just tell you to be careful. It was all over the map. Everybody trying to figure it out. Everybody's looking for the next move. And we're just trying to tell you, just know what the main trend is and stop trying to catch the daily moves. where you're going to drive yourself up a wall

and you're not going to know what hit you and what's kept us out of trouble is really knowing the main trends and our hope is when the main trend is up we're going to be all over it but there are certain things that must happen for the main trend to be up

number one you got to have leaders let me explain what that means a leader is a stock that relative to everything else is just that much stronger. A leader is a stock that has been held back by a bad market. A leader is a stock that breaks out of range into new yearly high ground and does not go up 3%, but soars. And you just don't need one leader, you need two, five. 10, 20, 30, 50. You also need what we call conviction. You see, we can measure conviction in the market.

Is it big buying? Is it real conviction? Is it real strength? Does the big institutional crowd mean business. Just watch volume. We use the word umph. O-O-O-O-M-P-H and you can actually put a few more O's in front of it. We've hardly seen any of that. We certainly have no leaders. You have a few things at or near new highs. You know what they are? Food stocks. You know what a food stock is it's the most defensive of companies. That doesn't tell you anything great. about a market? What else do we need? Besides conviction and leadership, we need the overall indices to get going and the new yearly high list to expand, the new yearly low list to contract. You need to see good reactions. Our motto, it's not the news, it's how things react to the news,

of import and then build upon itself to where you don't have to look over your shoulder. You don't have to wake up the next morning and your stock gaps down 10%. And we're just letting you know, as of this second, we have none of it. We have this line I've been using with our little membership we have. We're not buying it. That's our line. What are we not buying? anything that tries to break out of range.

Why is that? Because everything that tries to break out of range fails. In other words, we take the evidence that the market gives. We don't inject our bias. If things start working, good enough. If things don't, a great example, as of recent we had been telling you, the Chinese stocks were really the only area at the time that we thought had the little bottoming process going. And it was working for a bit until China had some bank runs.

I don't know if it got real bad. China shut down the casinos in Macau outside of Hong Kong. And there's all talks of lockdown. So they smacked them down the other day. Stop them dead in their tracks. The good news, only a couple have broken down. The rest of them just pulled back into support, but disappointed. We'll keep on watching.

But there's hardly any of that. We're just going to need to see more. And that's how we measure things. It's pretty simplistic. It's called hard work. sweat, time, toil, keen eye, no bias, wash, rinse, repeat. That's us. And it's not just me.

There are others like me who are in concert, and what we mean by that is we're in touch with each other, they're looking at their things, we're looking at ours, and we yap back and forth, and we get a good feel, and we'll be ready. when the time comes. The good news on the market right now, the last three or four weeks, the lows have been holding. The bad news is, there's no umph.

The good news is commodity prices have come down, yields have come down. The bad news is the market really doesn't give a crap just yet. The other bad news is we think we're in recession here on many avenues. not everything and of course as we said to you in reagan's great quote a recession is when your neighbor loses his job or a depression is when you lose your job well in certain areas people losing their job and if demand drops for whatever area that may be there's going to be less headcount we're seeing it in crypto we're seeing it in the mortgage business we suspect there's going to be others we'll let you know if that occurs so just giving you a understanding how we measure things. Today, new yearly highs in the market.

Just for instance, today, end of the day, new yearly highs in the market. You ready? General Mills, food. Morson Coors, beer. Sierra Wireless, wireless. That's your new yearly high list in the whole freaking market. up I got one more

something called target hospitality symbol TH lodging company small got a look at it but everything else in the group

is in bear markets that's your new yearly high list we can promise you we're going to need to see a hell of a lot more before we're in bullish market territory

up next Today. Much more. I'm Gary. This is the one only Investor's Edge. Enjoying a healthy dinner that tastes great means eating out at a pricey restaurant, right? Wrong. Healthy Choice Simply steamers are delicious and healthy. The Tray-in-Tray steam technology delivers crisp veggies and tender protein and tasty selections, like Healthy Choice Simply Steamers grilled chicken and broccoli alfredo.

It's a satisfying meal with 20,000. grams of protein and nothing artificial. Healthy Choice Simply Steemers. What having it all tastes like. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward.

Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU. At APUS.edu. On eBay, every find has a story.

Like if you're looking for a vintage band tea. Not just a tea. The band tea. From the last show your favorite band ever played. You wore it everywhere. Then your BFF started glaring it, which is cute until they unfriended you and took it with them. Which was not so cute.

Anyway, now you're on eBay. And there it is, same tea from the same tour. Still living in your memory, rent-free, forever. See? The things you love have a way of finding their way back to you. But eBay isn't just forgetting whatever your XBFF stole back. It's also for that rare championship foul ball you caught, then heroically gave to the kid next to you. And where else are you going to find your first car?

The one you wish you'd never sold, but now, you finally get the chance to take back home. For good this time. shop eBay for millions of fines, each with a story. eBay, things people love. That's Jim Morbach, one of the great market timers. No gray areas, but the man you're either in or out of the market with as proprietary indicators. Go check it out. Investment-dash models.com.

Dow down 208, was down 500, I think, around in the open. I'm giving approximates. S&P down 17, NASDAQ down, only 17, was down, I think, 150 on the open. Let me get that right. Because, you know how important the NASDAQ is to us. The NASDAQ at the low, oh, it was a lot lower. 031, the NASDAQ was down 235 right at the open. Finished only down 17.

That's good news. It was up at one time, 53 and 20, 78, about 60. That's today. The big picture, in and around that 10-5 to 11 NASDAQ, there's your support. And by the way, you can pretty much go back now. two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine weeks of the NASDAQ holding. But nine weeks of the NASDAQ ain't doing anything. Sox up 19.

Transports, if I can find it somewhere. Down 170. And man, there's some bad action in some of the transports. Advance declines. 1723 on New York, 222 on the NASDAQ. There are no new highs. There were 480 new yearly lows. We'll have to check that later.

On the green side today, commodities were up. They bounced. The dollar came down a little bit. By the way, the dollar, the euro was less than the dollar during the day today. Gold bounce with commodities. A little better tone on retail, not all. Restaurants, a little better tone. semiconductors had a good day

but crappy day for financials of all stripes crappy day for the medical type stocks defense stocks autos drugs pulled back biotech the big ones pulled back but still there's some speculation going on we don't like and then you know we just see individual names

that like really something like an old dominion down 13 today should that be happening in a bull market? FedEx, you know, acted better on numbers, down seven and now breaking down. Should that be happening if it's a bull market? The answer is no. United Health, you remember that important stock in the Dow, down 13, excuse me, down 13 today, United Health, probably rolling over with other managed care. Remember what we tell you, managed care strong.

Oh, your man are breaking out. Don't buy it. You manned down 10 bucks today. Again, anything trying to get out of range and get going, it's like somebody takes out a hammer and just knocks it on top of the head and sends it right back down. That's going to have to change. That has not changed. Other things, you know, when Twitter was 50 to 54 bucks on the buyout, we said sell. And we just basically have had the thought process.

If a deal gets done, it's got to be at lower prices. The stock today was up $2.67 to $36.73. A research company came out and said, we bought the hell out of the stock because we believe in the lawsuit, Elon Musk is going to have to buy Twitter at the price he came out with. Well, let me say this for the record. If you think that the deal's getting done at $54, it closed at $36. and change. Have that. I'm just letting you know, logically, ain't nobody can tell anybody to buy

something. No, really. Seriously. Right? Now, there's contract law, but this is a buyout thing. How many buyouts have been undone throughout the years? A bazillion of them. Why have they been undone? A bazillion reasons. And just remember, these lovely people at Twitter did not want Elon Musk, but now they're crapping in their pants. Please, Elon, because the stock's down at $36. And by the way, if this goes by the wayside, we think it's under $30. Just for the life of me logically, and I know, you go to a store, you buy a guitar. You give them your credit card or you pay with whatever.

You know, you bought the guitar. Of course, there's return policy and things like that. All I know is I've seen a bazillion companies and mergers be undone. I don't see how they're going to be able to make him buy the company. The Twitter lawyers said it would take four days to convince a jury that he has to buy the company. And for the life of me, legally or not, how do you make something? buy a company that they don't want to buy we'll see I have no bets on it and we'll keep it that way next just letting you know in my business all the

analysts you know what they're doing now they're lowering their price targets why are they lowering their price targets because they kept their price targets on stocks that are down 50% because as we've told you you get no help from Wall Street in the bear market So we're just letting you know they're coming. How about this one? Advanced micro devices. I got somebody taking a target on AMD from 140 down to 120.

The stock is at 77. Did I mention the original target was 200? So at 120, the stock's at 77. Still way off. You catch in my drift? They took the target down on Google today, Amazon today, and Intel today, a few of these people. That's how it works. And that's why we tell you you had better pay attention to your stocks.

You got that? In bare markets, you get no help from anyone. And remember, Wall Street, and this is not an indictment. It's a fact. Most of Wall Street is a fully invested vehicle. If you're down 30%, you're going to hear these words. You've got to think long term. Look out five years from now.

Look out 10 years from now. It's a great company. It'll come back. If you sell now, when are you going to get back in? Of course, they've been saying all that on a lot of companies that are down 50, 60, 70, and 80% now. Some down 90%. some of the most favorite companies of the last couple of years

have been utterly destroyed stunning me and I've seen it all so just remember that for the future and it's incumbent upon you to decide on your money because they ain't going to decide it for you you're going to be that person thinking long term don't worry everything's okay even though you're down 30%.

We don't have the stomach for that. No intersante of telling our peeps, hey, you're down 30%, but don't worry, everything's okay, it'll come back. Wall Street simply at it again. And I repeat, we're not indicting them. They tell you who they are. That's where you have to come in.

You have to make the decision on your money because that's how they roll. What else? President Biden says this inflation number today is a past number. He's right. He's also saying that it's out of date. He's right. Oh, my goodness, I'm agreeing with President Biden on two things. My goodness.

But he's right. and all we do is hope they stick. Up next. This, that, and the other thing, whatever else. This is the one only investor's edge. Enjoying a healthy dinner that tastes great means eating out at a pricey restaurant, right? Wrong.

Healthy Choice Simply steamers are delicious and healthy. The tray-and-tray steam technology delivers crisp veggies and tender protein and tasty selections, like Healthy Choice Simply Steamers' grilled chicken and broccoli Alfredo, it's a satisfying meal with 28 grams of protein and nothing artificial. Healthy Choice Simply Steemers. What having it all tastes like.

Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.apus.edu.

On eBay, every find has a story, like if you're looking for a vintage band tea. Not just a tea, the band tea, from the last show your favorite band ever played. You wore it everywhere. Then your BFF started glaring. it, which is cute until they unfriended you and took it with them, which was not so cute. Anyway, now you're on eBay. And there it is, same tea from the same tour, still living in your memory, rent-free forever. See?

The things you love have a way of finding their way back to you. But eBay isn't just forgetting whatever your XBFF stole back. It's also for that rare championship foul ball you caught, then heroically gave to the kid next to you. And where else are you going to find your first car? The one you wish you'd never sold, but now, you finally get the chance to take back home. For good this time. Shop eBay for millions of fines, each with a story. eBay, things people love.

You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! In the Gester's Edge. With Gary Culpa. Some things of interest.

BMW You want your seats warmed You know you got heated seats in cars You now have to pay a monthly fee to BMW Message to BMW This handsome and buffed host Me Will not buy any BMWs with this stupidity

I don't care how cool your cars are You lose me as a potential customer I've owned BMWs in the past BMW, you've just jumped the shark. Go look that up, by the way. Unbelievable. They say that the option to buy additional car functions is part of a global after-sale strategy

that BMW is introduced in various markets around the world, including on a small-scale basis in the U.S. You know what that means? People probably paying for it. You do know when airlines first came out with paying for bags I said people would never go for it and it would never last

I did say that I'm the doofus it lasted and people pay it and it's the norm and airlines are making a ton of coin just from that remember you didn't have to pay for bags a long time ago I don't remember how

when they even started it not to mention other things you have to pay for that you never used to pay for on airlines. But I'm just letting BMW know and I'm just one person, I'm sure they don't give a crap. Just on principle, I'll look elsewhere. I can't eat my seats for free anymore. That's the first thought. Secondly, let me just read a few things for you. If I can find it, you know, I had these things here and, you know, sometimes,

your subscriber to a certain thing and then it doesn't catch your password and all of a sudden you can't. Let's see if I can catch it here and then I can start telling you what inflation has been hitting. No, I can't. So we'll just have to do that another day. When will prices start going up? Is that the one? No, I can't find it. Oh, there it is. Thank you. So just letting you know, grocery prices shot up at their fastest pace in 79 in June year over year. Margarine, 34.5% in June from last year. Is that true? I can't believe it's not butter. That's the fastest annual pace in 75. Hot dogs, 16.3% in June year over year.

cookie prices 14.7%. Frozen refrigerated pies and other pastries 17.2%. Wow. Housing, rents. 5.8% from a year ago. Accelerated from May. Huh. Energy.

41.6% from last June but down from the recent highs. Gasoline, 11.2% from June. From just the previous month. But that's now coming down. Man, oh man. What got cheaper? Airline fares fell 1.8% in June from May, month over month, and hotel 2.8%. Though on an annual basis, we're up 34% and 10% respectively, and I will tell you that as a fact.

Do you know I had to take a trip quickly to go to New York and back from Florida? I had to pay 900 bucks. It was one of those I had to do within a couple of days. 900. I go to Europe and back in economy for 900 sometimes. A smartphone prices fell 20% in June from a year ago, while those for televisions declined 12.7%. That's good.

All in the Wall Street Journal. Just letting you know. But the big story will be going forward is gas prices. I don't, everything else does matter. But that's the big cahuna. And we'll keep you in touch on it. But that is, again, let me repeat, the big cahuna. The euro fell below the dollar today.

Again, great time to head to Europe. I'm heading to Spain in a couple of weeks, actually going on business with a little pleasure of course Euro baby parody baby I remember the first time I went to Europe I think it was 150 a dollar 50

to get a euro now it's a buck to get a euro happy camper just letting you know and just be careful there are a lot of reporting the news

for political purpose out there. I can promise you if these commodity prices stay down, especially gas, oil, which means gas, these inflation numbers will be the peak. Just keep in mind

is it telegraphing a major drop in demand? Recessions are not bad. Long recessions are bad, big recessions are bad, and we are watching closely now, employment. With the economy fragile here, if we start to lose employment, which has been pretty darn good, look out. That's going to be the big linchpin as we move forward. tomorrow I'll be on with Varnie and Company at 9 a.m. Fox business. I'm so glad I reminded myself again. But until tomorrow, same time for this show, you have a great evening. Drive carefully.

And when you get home, do like we do. Make sure you hug your family, hug your children, work out, get some exercise. Don't drink, it's overrated. What marijuana sucks, I don't know why it's getting legalized. and remember, every day is gone, you don't get back. Until tomorrow, peace out, all thanks to joining us. Always honored that you'd listen to us. Bye, bye. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com.

That's GaryK.com. Success starts with your drive. An American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.apus.edu.edu. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card.

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