Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - BIG RELIEF [03.31.2026]

Episode Date: March 31, 2026

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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colp. I'm your host. A thanks of being with us today. Glad you're here, ladies and gentlemen.

Happy that you are listening. March 31st, the Tuesday, 2026. Hope you're having a good day. Your 401ks had a very, very good day. day, a magnificent relief day from the nausea we have been seeing for quite the while. We will get into it. This is serious talk on everything that affects you, the markets, the economy, your job, your industry, war, tariffs, corruption, all that crap, and whatever else comes to mind. If you do not get this show in your city, the radio show, we'll post it, Gary,

We'll also post it on our X feed. And if you don't follow us on X, just put our name in. If you'd like to email us, just be nice. By the way, we'll also post it on the Biz TV YouTube channel. So last year in April, the market was very weak. And then we had Liberation Day. And we dropped another 10% in two days. the administration yelled and screamed at each other over the weekend at the White House,

and they planned on Monday just rolling back Liberation Day, coming up with anything, and eventually they came up with, well, we had talks with people, which was a lie, because that's what they're very good at, is lying, unfortunately. and on that Monday they were rolling it back but it got leaked. So they said no, no, no, no, no. They waited to Wednesday. That Wednesday, the NASDAQ, that Wednesday was up 12.16% in one day. That's how important.

Just remember, that was tax policy that was going to put taxes on just about everything that came through our door on you and our businesses. It was insanity, complete insanity. And they completely rolled it back. So they went from, oh, those shoes that are coming in from Vietnam, well, Mr. Foot Locker, you were paying 80 for them. You're now paying $80 for them. You're now paying 200. And by the way, that's not hyperbole. That's how bad it was. It was the stupidest thing I've ever seen.

And then they rolled it all back overnight. So of course, that craziness of 150% tax, poof. And boom, 12% that day. News driven. Well, lately we've had the war. And you can decide for yourself on the war. We're not here to really get into that today. But the chalk, and do you know what chalk means?

It means the best bet, the obvious bet, is that when the war ends, will have a war. rally we've been saying to you well let the market decide that because that's what everybody says today well overnight the president we're going to end the war overnight that turned out not to be exactly true but the markets opened up very well quite viciously and then this is what i'm just you the info, somebody over in Iran says the same thing they've been saying all long. We're good with a ceasefire, but you've got to come to our terms. But this time the market reacted and had a big day.

Now, I'm already getting some emails. Isn't this just end of quarter window dressing? Well, it could be. The fact of the matter is, in case you don't know, for the month of March, the S&P down 5.2% including today, which I'll get to in a minute. The Dow, including today, which was a Bafo day, down 5.4%. The NASDAQ, including today, down 4.6. 75%. The Russell 2000, including today, 5% for a month.

So one could say, well, some of it has to be end of quarter, but we don't know that. We don't know that. And we don't rationalize moves. So we opened up big and we finished big. The Dow was up 1125. Today was up 2.4%. Last year on that Liberation Day, getting rid of it, 7.87%.

The S&P today was up, got to get it right, 2.8%. Last year's after Liberation Day, 9.5%. The NASDAQ today, 3.8%. And I'm rounding off. Last year was 12.1%. The socks, the semiconductors, 6% today. 18% after Liberation Day. Now, what has my interest and what I do on a strong day like today, I scan like a maniac. What does that mean? Well, as you know, we have said to you, most sectors are in downtrends of differing levels. Some very far down. Yesterday, we said to you, geez, the semiconductor index furthered its drop. after breaking below the 50-day and living below it for a few weeks. The semiconductor index got back that nauseating drop yesterday,

and even more today. Amazingly so. That's my big surprise because surprise and not surprise in that we know the semiconductors they need to hold. They are the end-onuclear. be all with the financials and they're teflon-ish so very good day there you would have want to bet against me on the semiconductors doing what it did today 6% the financials well what do we tell you the most important one is well it's Goldman Sachs in the Dow up 4.7% today and About 250 Dow points, one stock.

And of course, the second most important is Caterpillar. That was about 270 Dow points. Between those two, over 500 of the 1,100 Dow points today. Now, do we think this sticks? I don't know. but the belief today without a doubt is the war is ending and the war does matter to the markets. Simple as that. It was a very strong day.

I got to tell you, I can't even find any warts and I'm good at finding warts. The advanced declines today, very strong. Up down volume, very strong. I could complain about the S&P volume being lighter today than yesterday. Don't care because the NASDAQ was much stronger today than yesterday. We talked to you about how they were coming after the pretty girls. And don't call me up on that. That's what they say on Wall Street.

It is the glamor strength names. They were blasting them. Guess what today? Back to their usual when they bounce. 4%, 5% moves? Got a couple 6% moves? And you know, I got one that's 10% today. And you know those names.

Up next, we'll walk you through because we want to make sure you know exactly the state of things. This is the one to only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living,

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It doesn't get better than this. So, now that I've told you about this very strong day today off of, there is no doubt the market believes this war is ending it's important to recognize where things lie versus where they were first off financials there's a chance that the last three weeks of backing and filling may put it be putting in a decent low they've been clipped pretty damn good a A lot of them. They had a good day today. Everything pretty much had a good day today. But Goldman was up 38 bucks today, but that's after dropping $185. You catch in the drift? These are not stocks in bull markets. They are now in recovery mode.

and it's our job to measure whether this will be the low or a low. I'm basically in the thought process, it's going to be a decent low. But I do believe that is going to depend on things on the ground. So that's Goldman. Micron was up $16 today. up 5%. And I didn't even realize it though. But it just dropped in seven days.

$160. You catch them where I'm coming from? So very good day for everything. If you had a down day today, it's pretty bad. But things have been so far down. Got to be careful about calling a big something or other from this. Today was Revenge of the Mega Caps. You ready?

Google was up 5% today. 14 bucks. That's huge for that stock. But in five days, it dropped 40 bucks. Make that six days. $40. It was up 14 today. We'll take it, but in the big scheme of things,

Microsoft was up 11. But just in the last drop, it's still down 42 bucks in the last three weeks with the $12 today. You see where I'm going? Tesla was up 17 bucks today. It's down $120 still from the top in December. Meta up 36 bucks today.

In the latest drop, it dropped 80. in three days. It's got back a bunch of it, but in the last four weeks it's still down a hundred dollars. Amazon was up seven bucks today. It just dropped twenty dollars quickly and it's still forty two bucks off the highs of January. Broadcom one of those semis up sixteen bucks today. It had just dropped sixty. So again, a very good recovery day. I don't know if I want to go further than that. Oracle was up eight bucks today. Don't even get me started on that. It's only down $200 from September. And that's the way the cookie crumbles. And tomorrow be another day. The S&P was at a relative

of low coming into today. It was up 184 points today. That's huge, almost 3%. It's still down almost 500 points from a few weeks ago. And by the way, still below that all important 200-day moving average. The Dow, as we said, up 1,100, but is still down. 4,200 points from five weeks ago. Again, everything in context. And we're not throwing cold water on today. We hope it's the low. But I've scanned a couple of thousand things already.

Most everything is a recovery day. I noticed that volume on a lot of names were lighter than the drops. but we'll give it all the benefit of the doubt we can give, and we'll go from there. Strength before this drop was very, very narrow. We don't think that changed today because as I scanned, I really couldn't add anything. There was some stocks today that broke support yesterday that got back above it today. so that gets back on the list. I believe I told you that I crossed out a bunch of names.

I uncrossed out some of them today. New yearly highs, there really isn't any. But we will keep in contact with anything close and anything, anything that's above the 50-day moving average and is held relative strength and came back quickest. My big surprise is in the semis and some of these glamour, artificial intelligence stocks. They looked ready for the big yonking, and they were. And the semis are still below resistance. But boy, oh boy, when they get going either way, they can get going.

There's your story. The market now believes we're getting out of this morass. M-O-R-A-S-S. Big word from Gary. And we'll go from there. Remember, the technical condition of tons of stuff is still crappy. But you've got to start somewhere. And when we started somewhere last April, it was crappy.

But in the days ahead, it figured. itself out, stair steps started moving up. Volume was good on the up days, light on the down days, and we ended up in rally mode for quite a while. Will we get the same this time? Don't know. Oh, one other note, NVIDIA, broke below gargantuan vital support levels, got back above them today. in the midst of nothingness, still down 10 bucks from last July. Up next, we'll continue

along these lines. This is the one to only Investors Edge. We're listening to America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Coltbaum.

It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. So we always tell you about the Dow is price weighted, and Caterpillar and Goldman are way higher than everything else, and they matter most. They wore today, believe it or not, two stocks. Eight times six is 48. 520 Dow points today, two stocks.

Of course they were to the downside. side also and they're still way below the highs. But damn, that was one hell of a day today for those two names. And the only things that were really down today in the Dow were defensive names. In the Dow, NVIDIA was good for 60 Dow points. Microsoft for about 70 Dow points. J.P. Morgan for about 65 Dow points. Boeing, about 65 Dow points.

And others, you know, 20, 30 here or there. As I said yesterday, I have no clue about tomorrow. We just want to get the trends right. I don't think trends change today, but it's a start of hopefully it gets to change the trend. All the areas that have been in downtrends bounce today. All of them. Oh, by the way, except for payroll. ADP and paychecks were again down today.

But let's pick them apart. Housing. They've been blasted. They bounce today. Restaurants. They've been blasted. They bounce today. The economically sensitive names, you know which ones.

They bounce today. Insurance, weak as can be. They bounce today. transports now let's single them out the transports was pretty strong before the war but of course got hit pretty hard i'm not a hundred percent sure but it feels like they're coming back quicker and i'm going to be watching them closely because before the war the rails and the truckers were pretty darn strong and of course the war is not going to help them They bounced the cruise lines, the airlines and hotels today.

Why? Oil prices came down and should come down more if, in fact, we get the hell out of the war or whatever you want to call it. And I'm not going to get into the minutia of what the president put out today because it made no sense. Strategically weird. But when you are the greatest military on earth, you can get the hell out. out of there. Retail, been very weak. They bounced them all today. But as I scanned them, boy, they're still very weak. Defense stocks, yesterday we said we thought they were topping. And I would have thought they would have gone further down today. They bounced a little bit,

but not much. For me, the big story today, mega caps, semiconductors, artificial intelligence. very good recovery day but the mega caps I don't have one name in real bull mode I don't have one name Dell was but they've come in hard on it

and I'm going to have to it's not bad Apple was up seven today Amazon up seven Google up 14 Microsoft they will influence remember eight stocks are like 65% of NASDAQ 100 in the 30s of the S&P. So that really did the trick today.

And I repeat, I got no clue about tomorrow. But I think there's a chance. The low. I will say on a near-term basis, unless something really gets bad over there. The lows of yesterday. Remember, we gapped up today. will not get taken out anytime soon.

That's the guess. And of course, if they are taken out anytime soon, that would be big trouble because today was a real strong day. And when you get days like today, it's tough to take them back down easily. And again, that would mean something up. New Yearly High List? Not much.

Not much at all. I wish there was. I will tell you this, though. Listen to the tactics. The first stocks that go new yearly high off of something like this that have meat to them. I'm not talking about a biotech with no sales, which, by the way, you had some movers today in that. You had a buyout. You ready for this?

Well, this one had sales. Appellus Pharmaceuticals bought out today. How about Centessa Pharmaceuticals, no sales. That gapped up today. And as I'm looking down my list in the NASDAQ, you ready for the new high list? How about Century Aluminum? That's at a new high.

An aluminum stock. How about Smithfield? foods, package meats, that's a new yearly high. I think that's it on my new yearly high list for the NASDAQ. On the New York, let's see what we can find. You ready? Pfizer is a new yearly high. You got some oils, but they finish down on the day, so they're not considered new yearly highs. have energy, a utility. I have symbol, CC, Shemores. It's a chemical company, New Yearly High. I've got, Selenese, another chemical company, and I think that has to do with the war. I've got, how about darling ingredients, agriculture, New Yearly High?

And Tenerys, steel, that's a new yearly high. Are you ready? That's it for new yearly highs in all of the market. So you know what the good news is? Every day now, I am going to be mining that list. And I'm able to see if the numbers go up because it's in real time on my screen. And if I see one or two, I go right to. it and I'll have an idea already and we'll act accordingly. Why? Because coming out of this relative

strength is going to be meaningful. And that's why we keep a list every day, narrow as it may be. I've been asked about the oils. You got me. I would have thought they would have been down more today. I would have thought it would have been down more today. And then, Then away from the AI, things like the sphere, which was strong before the war, starting to show up again. You know, the sphere in Vegas and they're building some others. That's on my list. I have a solar stock that's strong. Retail, Burlington, five below, raw stores, T.J. Max.

I got four in retail. I have about 70 that are in downtrends. So still, plenty of work to be done. But strong day. Again, I'm not throwing any cold water on it. Good to see. We don't like markets going down. And again, we are surprised.

Yesterday was a vicious sell-down day. Vicious is all heck. In a normal, not-news-driven world, that is the start or the continuation of ugly in a news-driven world, anything possible. You go from no war to war to no war, you are going to get movement. And we recognize that. It is the most news-driven environment we have ever seen times a multiple of God knows how much the numbers. Up next, I got a couple of problems.

This is the one known Investor's Edge. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! Investors Edge. With Gary Culpa.

And welcome once again to Investors Edge. Nike down a little bit in the aftermarket on earnings, restoration hardware, down a bunch on their earnings. The market's not going to give a crap right now. So I wanted to bring something up because it irritates the hell out of me. As you know, we have no agenda, ulterior motive, or bias when it comes to Republicans, Democrats, the Whig Party independence. 39 trillion has proven us, proven they all suck. And you know what we care about most?

fair play and there isn't any out there from D.C. And unfortunately it's just getting worse under this administration. I take no joy. The president

just signed something about the fighting of fraud. We're going after fraud. We're going to have whatever fraud and this that and fraud fraud committee look out and if you are a whistleblower you're going to get paid a lot of money if you find fraud I think I can count a dozen now I think I can count a dozen now of the president that is pardon people that have committed massive fraud

So how does one put those two together? You don't. We don't. And along with that, every one of these people that were pardoned gave a crap load of dollars to the Trump super PAC or whatever else. This is sickening. I don't care if you're left or right, you should be pissed off. The victims now do not get any restitution because of the pardons. Yet they're telling us they're going to fight fraud.

They're creating an outlet that fights fraud. I've lost all faith in them. I will root for them I will hope for their success but they're doing this in plain sight they're not even shy about it not even shy

I don't even know what to say the precedent they are creating for the next person is beyond the beyond it's like a spit in your eye people who believe in fair play and honesty and just doing the right thing my disappointment is beyond

but I have no say in the matter no say in the matter doesn't matter what I think or anybody else's they're still going about it here's another one right here nursing homeowner A full pardon after he was sentenced to prison for diverting millions owed to his employees

while paying himself $5 million as a ghost employee. The full pardon comes after his payment of $1 million to Trump lobbyists. They're not even hiding it. And everybody's making fun of it. And you're ready for some of the restitution canceled? it's added up to $1.3 billion of victims' dollars that nobody's going to get. I take it back. It's $1.3 trillion.

You got some people here, $660 million for one guy. Pardoned. Why am I bringing this up? It matters. If these are the people running the country, they're running the economy. They're getting involved with everything. I'm rooting for them to do the right thing and good things and things that work out.

But even the biggest proponents of them should be scratching their head. All day to day, the president was saying the war is ending, and that was part of this. I mentioned what they said out of Iran, but Iran has come out and said, horse crap. We don't trust a thing about you. We'll see what happens in the days ahead. But today, no cold water on it. Quite impressed. Tomorrow be another day. Have a great evening.

Drive carefully when you get home, do like we do. It's simple. Make sure you hug your family and hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise stay well, be well. Have a great night, everybody. Peace out. Bye bye. Edge with Gary Cultbaum on Biz Talk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to Garykay.com. That's GaryKK.com.