Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Biotech crash [05.06.2025]
Episode Date: May 6, 2025https://garykaltbaum.com/THE TOP 5 By Gary Kaltbaum May 6, 2025 Never thrilled with weak closes. Normal pullback from big overbought…dont want to see it become abnormal.Powell tomorrow. Yippee! GOL...D still on the go. India/Pakistan less than thrilling news.
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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum.
Straight talk about you and your money.
Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum.
And welcome once again to Investors Edge.
I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host.
A thanks for being with us today.
Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen.
Happy that you are listening.
It is Tuesday.
It is May 6th, even though in one of my reports I put April 6th today, and it is
2025, at least I got that right.
Hope you are having a good day.
As always, serious talk on everything that affects you.
We'll do the markets.
The economy, your job, your industry, tariffs, and all that crap.
And anything else I think is important to you.
And I and my family and your family.
And if you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at gary k.com.
We'll also post it on our Twitter feed, which is now X, and we will also post it on
podcast apps.
And if you don't follow us on X, you should.
And if you'd like to email me, just be nice because we are going to be nice back.
Simple as that.
Ladies and gentlemen, I titled this show, Biotech Crash.
You know, you haven't heard us talk about biotech too much because they've crashed.
And I've been told that it's because of the new guy running Health and Human Services with Kennedy, that zipper head.
But this has been going on for quite a while.
And I want it to be a lesson for all of you because the thing we believe we do best here,
and by far is keep you out of what you should not be in.
And that is bare markets, beer phases, big downtrends.
You know, I watch somebody today that said,
you have to be in the market at all times.
That's what I heard.
A permable.
Well, no, not a permable, but somebody, I guess that has to be 100% invested.
So, and I'm thinking to myself, boy, if I was interviewing him, I would ask, well, what did you do when everything went down 56% in 08?
And more importantly, when you were down 50%, or let's say you were down 40, maybe 35, was anybody worried?
Was anybody losing sleep?
And what do you do about Citigroup?
See, Citigroup today closed at $69, but it did a one for 10 split.
It's down like 92% from the highs of 08 because they had to do a restructuring.
What do you do about that?
What do you do about the biotechs?
In fact, famous biotex.
So as a lesson, I just want to bring up a few things on biotech that are of import because biogen, that's a famous one.
And it is classically the roadmap of bare markets.
Classically, the roadmap of bare markets.
And in case you do not know, Biogen now is trading where it was.
Oh, I got to keep going back.
June of 2012, almost 13 years of no gains.
The high was 468, it's 116, so let's call that more than 75% drop in biogen.
A very famous biotech.
And I'm not going to get into what's wrong with it.
I'm just stating a fact.
Because it's not just biogen.
You all heard of regeneron pharmaceuticals, another classic bear market.
By the way, not nearly as bad as Biogen because I got news for you.
It was at an all-time high last August at $1,11.
It's $558 today as it's gone through a classic bear market, classic roadmap bear market.
But I'm not done.
Have you heard of Replagin?
Other people haven't. Well, that's only down from 327 to 130 in about three and a half years.
How about something called surreptothera therapeutics?
I bet people don't know that name because that one is trading exactly where it was.
Let's call it the year 2000.
and may I state for the record, interesting enough, hit a high at 173 last year.
It's 46.
And why do I bring that up?
Because we have a rule and we want to teach you rules and lessons here.
And one of those rules and lessons we always talk to you about is if a group, a sector is in a bare market and there's one or two stocks that are stronger,
holding up, be wary of them. Not to say they won't be successful, but be wary. Well, one of those
names that hasn't done anything in a year, but has held up very well was Vertex Pharmaceuticals.
And they reported earnings in the last day, and we had no idea what the earnings would be,
and we certainly had no idea how the stock would react, down $50 to $450. And we had no idea.
And we don't know what's going to happen from here, but a lesson.
We simply just will not buy in a group that's in a bare market.
And mind you, Gilead was 70 bucks a year ago and hit 120 recently.
It is back to 97, but we would have missed that.
but it's the big
crashes that we miss
that are more important
than missing one that works
based on rules
so I know because I watch
the same things you watch
hasn't been a lot of talk about
biotech has there
do you know why
because they've crashed
and why would anybody talk
about the group that's crashed when they need you to be invested 100% of the time.
So let's only talk about the things that are working.
And usually there's something always working, right?
So I just want to start with that.
In our little webcast tonight, we're going to go through that tonight.
And the reason we're going to go through that tonight is because our number one rule of the market.
number one, number two, number three, number four, number five rule.
Of the market is never lose big.
Protect capital.
Stay out of bare markets.
Recognize bare markets.
And if you don't know how to recognize bare markets, learn to.
What I have found often, and it is unfortunate that people that don't read that
usually you're selling at the latter end of bear markets
because they cannot stand the pain any longer
because of how far down things have gone.
So I just wanted to bring up the biotech today
only because of vertex,
but then we decided just to go through the others and damn,
there be some big drops.
Jazz pharmaceuticals, well that's not necessarily biotech, but that's gone from 148 to 105.
Oh, and by the way the pharmaceutical stocks are getting trashed also.
So there's a definitive, bearish phase in biotech and drugs.
Not all, because I believe McKesson's a strong name, but Eli Lilly's not.
That one's getting hit now.
And as things play out, going forward, we will let you know about every other area that we believe is in a bearish phase of unknown price and unknown time.
And as always, we'll tell you what we think.
You get to decide it's your money, not ours.
We're not here to tell you to buy, sell, short, or cover.
We're here to tell you what we think.
Up next, more on the markets.
News of the day.
Gold had another day.
Thanks for being here.
I'm Gary.
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called bomb it doesn't get better than this and walk once again to investors edge i'm gary your host thanks
for being with us today ladies and gentlemen we hardly ever ever ever ever tell you what others think here
number one we don't put down anybody we learned that a very long time ago a very long time ago we
used to put down a certain somebody and we got an email from someone that just made a lot of sense
that it's just bad form, so we don't.
The only person we have taken on is Kathy Wood of the ARC funds
because we receive a bazillion emails on it,
and she still held out as a guru
and has billions under management
and talks a big game while down 70-some-odd percent still from four years ago.
And we do not like outrageous predictions.
I believe she's predicting Bitcoin to go to 1.5 million, right?
So that we bring up, but mostly there's a few people who we revere in the business.
And we're always interested when they open their yapper to hear what they have to say.
George Soros, who doesn't talk that much as far as the markets these days.
Steve Cohen, who owns the Mets who have the best record of baseball right now this year.
David Tepper, who has been genius when it comes to the Fed, Paul Tudor Jones.
One of the great hedge fund managers.
And there are others.
Gil Morales, who we've had on the show.
Brilliant.
There's a gentleman by name of Jim Rople, an O'Neill guy.
but I want to talk Paul Tudor Jones today because he's pretty darn good.
I'm letting you know what he thinks.
It is not what we think because we do not predict.
We have no idea where things are going to be six months from now, a year from now.
We have no targets.
We believe all the information is in the market today that you need.
on up trends and downtrends, bottoms and tops, tops and bottoms.
But Paul Tudor Jones, some of these people are very good at extrapolating what's going on and where they think it'll be.
And they're right very often.
And we don't know if he's going to be right, but we do want to tell you what he had to say.
So I'll read it to you.
Billionaire hedge fund manager, Paul Tudor Jones, said Tuesday stocks are bound to hit new lows.
even if the president, Donald Trump,
tones down his aggressive tariffs on China.
He says, for me, it's pretty clear.
You have Trump who's locked in on tariffs,
you have the Fed who's locked in on not cutting rates.
That's not good for the stock market.
We'll probably go down to new lows,
even when Trump dials back China to 50%.
I believe the tariffs on China,
I think they're 100.
I got to tell you, it changes so much.
I don't know, but I think they're 100-something.
It goes on to say the widely followed investors' bearish comments came after Trump's rollout
of the highest levels of imports and generations shocked the world last month, triggering extreme
volatility on Wall Street.
The S&P suffered a severe sell-off, but has since recouped much of the losses, which is not true,
sitting 8% below its all-time high.
Trump has slapped tariffs of 145% on imported Chinese goods this year,
prompting China imposed retaliatory tariffs of 125.
China said last week it is evaluating the possibility of starting trade negotiations with the U.S.
Tudor Jones said he'll dial it back to 50 or 40, whatever.
Even when he does that, it'd be the largest tax increase since the 60s.
So you could kind of take 2 to 3% off growth.
Unless they got really of the Fed, unless they got really doveish and really cut,
you're probably going to new lows.
And then when we're new lows, the hard day will start to.
the following, they'll probably create the Fed to move, create Trump to move, and then we'll get some
kind of reality.
All right, we'll see what happens.
We felt it necessary to tell you.
We do not act on that.
We'll let the market decide, and I must tell you, the market was weird today, was very weak
early and then rallied up.
The president was meeting with the Canadian leader, Mark Carney, and out of nowhere he said
something, and we don't like this, that he does this.
we're going to make a the big gigantic fabulous unbelievable magnificent announcement Thursday
Friday or whatever and the Dow which was down 200 within minutes was only down 30 and then he
says well it doesn't necessarily have to do with trade and the market dropped and then
futzed around for a while and then in the last few minutes I think the NASDAQ went from down
70 to down 154 before you can say boo.
The Dow finished down 389, the S&P 43, NASDAQ 154, NASDAQ 100, 176.
I didn't really see any news for that.
It was just a rough day.
And we just think the market was set up.
As we had told you, the oscillator.
Very overbought, very stretch, neat to pull back.
And we're getting some pullback here.
have no clue how long it lasts or how far it goes.
We're still in the midst of earning season.
You had some very good reactions today,
but you also had the usual blowups,
namely DoorDash, which was a strong stock,
and the Palantir, which is the number two stock
that we are asked about besides NVIDIA.
Palantir finished down almost $15 today to 10886
is down another $1.50 in the aftermarket.
So having a rough day
I think it's a combination of two things
Number one was extended to the upside
So not the biggest of deals
But something to be watched very closely
A break below 100 would be quite the negative
The interesting thing on Palantir
It's still the valuation is just up in the frickin' trees
In the trees
You got a $255 billion market cap
On a 3 billion revenue company
so you're still over 80 some odd times sales it was as high as 100
strong growth though can't argue
got asked a few times today if you own the stock what would you do
probably sell it for now probably's got some work to do
that's just an opinion
bad day for that and would we say DoorDash also
also have to mention Tesla was down another six bucks today
and trying to hold on to this little flat range it's in
and has been really blasted over the last months,
the numbers coming in from across the globe
remain very weak on Tesla.
And all the bulls keep talking about what's next to come
and what's next to come and what's next to come.
I have news.
What's next to come better be good
because the numbers on their autos right now
are not very good.
Way down in many a country.
and China
in case you don't know
China has BYDF
which is BYDF
they're beating them
in China
and that's a China based
manufacturer
so not so thrilled but Tesla
you never know
it has like
it has had a cult following
hey up next
we'll talk about
what's still bullish
of the news of the day
I'm Gary
this is the one
and only investors at
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putting it off
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refresh is now
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today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John.
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Investor's Edge.
He's got to be pleased with that.
The crowd is just on his feet here.
He's a Cinderella boy.
With Gary Colbomb.
It comes highly recommended.
You're going to feel better if you talk to him.
And welcome once again to Investors Edge.
Thanks for being with us today.
So, crappy day in the market.
it can't say it wasn't due.
As we said to you, the oscillator.
And trust me, when that oscillator, and it's not ours,
and I'd rather not tell you who it is,
it's somebody's proprietary oscillator that they use.
And basically what it is is the rate of change in volume
and just tells you over-boughtness or oversoldness.
And when it goes to extremes, it works pretty well.
40 is overbought.
Actually, I think 35.
It was just 85.
And that has to be worked off.
And you know how it's worked off?
As we tell you, time and price.
Which means pullbacks and time.
Oh, and I can tell you the oscillator.
I didn't see it with a finish yet today.
But it was lower today.
So rough day.
I do have to tell you gold remains the bull market.
Had another big day today.
It is the anti-market right now.
now the gold. That's what it looks like.
Very strong off of moving averages on the pullback.
What was the GLD up today?
$8 and said, 2.6%.
That's a pretty good move.
But after that, there's really not bull markets.
There are things that hold up pretty well.
And there's some names.
But group-wise, you got Europe, which has been strong.
less strong and right now we're a little bit on the weaker side I also have to
mention that retail yuck transports yuck home builders yuck
semis yuck but they've bounced a little and even look out am d's actually
up on earnings in the aftermarket and about four bucks not the greatest thing
do not forget they touted you on a md like
crazy and it's only gone from 227 and it closed it's 103 in the after market today.
I have yet to see their earnings report, but for change, the market likes it and is up a little bit
and we'll see how tomorrow goes. We're just letting you know, shorter term, we've rallied up,
all the talk of nine days and all that. Yay.
Terrific. But right into mass of resistance, we talked to you about yesterday the cushy lair,
and that was we felt the masses were feeling like, oh, they're on their comfy couch, the market's up a bunch of days,
no trouble anymore, and we're kind of like, hold on a second here, down 10 and up 5.
So the transport's roughed up today, retail stocks act like,
Home builders continue to act badly.
The semiconductors less badly right now, but still badly.
The banks have been acting better.
They better continue to act better.
But a lot of the financials not as good, like the regionals and some lenders and things like that.
Of course, MasterCard and Visa act well because they are the greatest bookies of all time.
What a great bookies.
got to love them so that holds up and all we're doing right now is just watching where the strength is
we've told you where it is it's narrow there's not a lot and i must tell you again if the president
decides to get rid of that pause on those tariffs i think the market's going to crumble again
i don't think he's going to do it but your guess is as good as mine you just don't know and even his
most ardent fans have recognized that damn whatever he says on Monday could change on Tuesday.
We'll see how that plays out.
And I must tell you, in the news, I was watching, I was watching the president with the new head of Canada.
And the president was again talking about buying Canada and taking it over and making it the 51st state.
And I'm thinking to myself, is he nuts?
Saying that in front of the leader of Canada for all to see?
And I'm thinking to myself, is the dude from Canada going to stay gentlemanly?
Or is he going to throw back a dig?
Because I have to tell you, if I was running Canada, and by the way, I do a much better job than the people that have been running it,
you know what I would have said to the president today?
Maybe we'll buy you out.
I'm really hoping
if I had the president's ear,
I would tell him to stop all that.
It was about a week or two ago,
he said all these leaders of all these countries
are kissing my arse on the deals.
And did you notice not one deal has been done?
Even though every day they're out saying,
oh, the deals are getting done.
If I'm a leader of a country,
that means I got elected, most of them.
And I'm pretty sure I feel good about myself
being a leader of the country.
Probably have an ego.
And another leader saying that I'm kissing their arse,
how do you think that relationship's going to go?
Boy, I'm hoping he sees...
I'm rooting for him.
I've been telling you how long,
I'm rooting for him, but I got to call out.
I've just got a call out.
And you know what we think about tariffs, which they're not.
They're taxes.
We told you yesterday we're not going to say the word tariff and I did it again.
They're taxes.
And by the way, I actually did not know there's still 145% tax on goods coming from China right now.
That means there's a lot of companies buckling right now that we're not hearing about yet.
That's to be watched.
145%. So if you bring in a million dollars of your product that you're going to sell,
you're paying $1.45 million to the treasury. Are you going to do that or you're going to stop business?
Because last I looked, there's not many, maybe cocaine has a 145% profit margin.
I've got to say it, he better be careful. The president had better be careful. He already caused,
he already caused one crash
he had better be careful
smiling outwardly but I gotta believe
there's some worry
gotta believe
and there's no way China's just gonna
kiss his arse
that was a little bit on the newsy front today
you disagree email me
you agree email me
like to hear from you as always
I get a lot from you I get some people
you know I said that he's taxing
everything and I got one, well, he's not taxing everything. Guess what? That's a little sarcasm.
It's not everything, but it's a ton. It's a ton. And we'll keep you up to date on it.
We'll keep you abreast of the situation. But unfortunately, it seems to be changing daily.
And I'm also in hopes that they just stop talking and stop promising. Two weeks ago, they said any day.
one week ago any day
today any day
terrific
remember what we told you we mean this
they're going to sell to you
that every trade deal is the greatest ever
these trade deals are not the biggest thing in the world
just letting you know we already have trade with them
so if you change the dial a little bit
terrific I think more important
is us doing more manufacturing here
but that's going to take plenty of time.
And in case you don't know, a lot of businesses already moved out of China in the last few years.
Before Trump came back in, they recognized that they were too dependent on China.
That's become quite communistic as of recent.
So they moved to communist Vietnam, but Vietnam is not putting the screws to people.
and to Taiwan, which of course China wants to take over.
They've been at least threatening it for a long time.
So a lot of moving parts.
We'll stay on top of it.
Oh, and we get the Fed tomorrow.
Up next, speaking of the Fed and whatever else.
I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge.
Guys, it's no use putting it off.
The best time for an underwear refresh is now.
Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day.
Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands.
And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer.
With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you.
Don't settle for less.
Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort.
That's Tommyjohn.com, code comfort.
Tommy John, comfort perfected.
This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X.
card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit
for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase,
bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000
airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access
is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform
responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones
you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like,
sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already
a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show,
upload it once, and Sprinker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify,
in about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing.
Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads,
meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones.
Start your show today at spreeker.com.
Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour,
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You're listening to.
What are we waiting for?
Well, what are you waiting for?
One, two, ready, go.
Action!
In the guest's edge.
with Gary Culper.
And welcome once again to Investors Edge.
I'm Gary Culper.
I'm your host.
Thanks of being with us today.
A little more in the news.
Well, as you know, for a long while, I had these back spasms, and I could not do a thing.
And I took my time because I'm not 30 anymore.
Just letting you know, daily routine now, five sets, five sets.
of knee-ups, jumping jacks, and basketball shots.
What a basketball shot?
I'm pretending I'm throwing three-pointers.
Five sets.
100 sit-ups.
15 sets of lifting.
And three rounds of boxing every day.
And boy, I'm getting in shape quack again.
I was never really out of shape, but I'm just letting you know what we're doing.
and of course the 10,000 steps a day.
I get close pretty close.
And of course the incline trainer is part of that steps.
You want to get real shape?
Go on an incline.
Go on an incline.
That really works it off at any age.
And of course I'm careful about what I eat.
I don't screw around.
Have my usual cheat meals when I'm in New York.
New York City is very tough.
not the pizza in New York City,
went to this place called Mamas 2, T-O-O.
It's like the great, almost as good as pizza that I had,
it was Sorrento, Italy.
That's the best pizza I ever had, Sorrento, Italy.
And a real good one in Sienna, Italy also.
But this Mama's 2 in New York, dang.
that was real good.
All right, heading into tomorrow,
Jay Powell,
and as you know, the president is jawboning him to lower rates.
So a couple of things on that.
Number one, if the president wants Jay Powell to lower rates,
stop jawboning him to lower rates.
Why?
Because Jay Powell wants to prove he's independent from the president,
and he will not lower rates unless forced to,
to prove his independence.
So the chalk tomorrow is to do nothing.
That's number one.
Number two, I want you to remember, and again,
I wish I had the president's ear,
if Jay Powell lowered his rates,
there is a chance that rates would go up.
Huh?
What the hell you're talking about?
Well, Jay Powell is the Fed Funds rate.
That's what banks charge and lend.
to each other and all that crap, you can look that up.
Then there's the real bond market, and this three months, six months, one year, two year, five year, ten year, 30 year bonds.
But the one we watch them closely is the 10 year because mortgages are attached to another loan types.
To me, it's the most important.
And I got news for you.
J-Powell's at four and a quarter.
The 10-year yields at 4.3.
I don't think he needs to do much here.
If he moved to four, if he dropped a quarter, that'd be fine.
But after that, has to be careful, and here's why.
When Jay Powell dropped from five and a quarter down to four and a quarter on his Fed funds,
the 10-year yield went from 3-7 to 4-5.
And the 10-year yield is 10 times more important than Jay Powell's Fed funds to you.
So the president needs to be on the careful side.
Now, of course, Jay Powell can print money again and buy up the freaking bond mark and distort everything and Tate rates down to zero.
But that ain't happening now.
So I think the president needs to be careful.
And I got to tell you, Jay Powell's done it in 26.
I hope whoever Trump puts in isn't stupid and is smart.
And what that means is the number one thing the Fed's supposed to do,
is to keep inflation in check,
keep the dollar secure.
And of course, Jay Powell did the opposite.
And if Donald Trump, the president, wants trouble
and wants problems,
go ahead and lower rates too much.
Remember what we had in that inflation?
How was that good for you?
That's what he'll cause.
And I don't think any of them realize it.
Let me tell you why.
The Treasury Secretary, where is he from?
Wall Street.
All they care about is markets going up.
And in the past, easy money means better markets.
Not anymore.
Not like it used to.
Because if you go too far, there's your inflation and there's your trouble.
And then what are you forced to do?
Raise your rates in order to combat.
Inflation only came down because the goof
ball stop printing money. And of course there was the buffoon Biden with his out of control
spending too that did not help. Oh, by the way, the republicans are doing the same again also.
So that'll be tomorrow. I have no clue how the market reacts. He'll do a press conference
afterwards and say nothing, but sound smart. The chalk is again, he's not going to make any
moving, I'd be happy if he did that.
And if the president was smart,
not say a word.
That way it'll give him room to lower
rates going forward.
But I think the president,
he yaps too much.
He yaps too much.
It's ongoing.
We're watching the big banks.
They've been acting okay.
We're letting you know if the
big banks start gagging.
You'll be hearing from us.
we think they were strong before the market got blasted.
We think they're going to be a key.
Of course, along with those semis, which are still not getting anywhere.
It is not going to be easy, as the bulls say.
It is not going to be as hard as the bears say.
Just letting you know, I think we may have a tweener.
We'll keep you on top of it.
That all said you have a great evening drive carefully.
How about them Knicks last night?
Wow. Jalen Brunson.
And when you get home, do like we do.
It's quite simple.
Make sure you hug your family.
Make sure you hug your children.
They will feel better.
You will feel better.
I promise they will be well.
Thanks for joining.
Serenity now.
Until tomorrow.
Good night.
This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk.
To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary,
Go to GaryK.com.
That's GaryK.com.
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