Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Bounce Day
Episode Date: March 20, 2023Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com...
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Investor's Edge with Gary Cultbaum.
Straight talk about you and your money.
Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum.
And welcome once again to Investors Edge.
I'm Gary Kalbaum, your host.
A thanks of being with us today.
Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen.
Happy that you are listening.
It is Monday.
It is March 20th,
2020,
and there's a hell of a lot going on.
You had a great weekend.
I'm in New York City.
Hang it with the fam.
We'll be here to Thursday.
Flying back Thursday night,
and you know what Friday is?
Remember I used to be the chairman
of the main fundraising event
for the Boys and Girls Clubs of Central Florida.
Well, I'm not anymore because, man, that took a lot of time
and there's other people that took over.
But our main fundraising event is this coming Friday
in Central Florida.
Anyway, thanks for being with us.
As usual, we have lots to cover.
And I want to get right to it.
First off, if you hear sirens in the background,
that means I'm in New York City, by the way.
Not much I can do.
on Friday, we did a little exercise of what questions do I think you would have of I?
And we answered, and we want to do that again, because it's not very often I will receive a couple of hundred emails all asking me the same question.
And you know what the question that is.
Do you think my money is good here?
Do you think these CDs are good here?
Do you think I should move my money?
What do you think I should do?
And of course, I have to be careful with my answers.
So let me just state for the record again.
And yeah, this is important.
Odds favor.
There's not going to be a ton of banks that go out by the wayside.
Odds favor, if any of them do,
they're probably going to be smaller.
Do I think there's a Lehman moment or Bear Stearns or Merrill Lynch?
I can't say no.
And I know others are saying, no, no, they don't know.
We have to be unsure and unclear of the system.
What do we mean by that?
Well, this just didn't happen.
Things were done that made it happen.
And as Warren Buffett says, you don't know who's naked until the tide goes out,
which means who knows, who knows where, who knows if, you don't know.
So I just have a simple thought process right now.
And I hate saying it, but I got to tell you exactly what I'm thinking.
Bigger is better, which doesn't mean small is bad, but bigger is better.
And that's unfortunate because that's how the cookie is crumbled.
Out of 08, bigger got bigger.
Do I think there are going to be others?
Yes.
But do I think deposits will be covered?
Yes.
They just did it.
In case you don't know, and believe me, a lot of it has not been explained well.
Let me explain it well to you.
The reason why this came about, Silicon Valley Bank, number one, a ton of the money was
invested with a lot of venture capital deals.
And in case you did not know, a lot of venture capital deals.
have gone night night because of the markets, access to capital.
The other part of the equation was, and again, like a scalded dog, we're going to keep repeating.
Does a scalded dog repeat itself?
You get my point.
J. Powell rigged interest rates down to zero.
If you went out 10 years on a bond, you got 6 tenths of 1%.
and a lot of these banks had to invest the money.
And we gave you the example of Austria.
Austria put out a 100-year bond at 8 tenths of 1% 100 years.
And we were so amazed that they were able to sell it.
People willing to buy a bond for 100 years and get 8 tenths of 1% not realizing,
what if interest rates go the wrong way?
Well, I'm told that bond right now is like,
40 cents on the dollar?
If you live another 100 years, you'll get your money out.
This is what we mean by the farther you go out, the more risk you take.
Well, because of what Jay Powell did, not only did he rig and manipulate and force people into buying long-dated paper just to make pennies, it created inflation.
Now, politically, everybody's out blaming Joe Biden.
You know, the right has to blame Joe Biden.
But it wasn't just Joe Biden.
Joe Biden's spending contributed to the inflation, no doubt.
But the button was pushed.
The fire was lit.
The horse got out of the barn.
The car got out of the garage.
The train left the station because of Jay Powell.
And it's very simple.
Go look up the words, too much money chasing too few goods.
Well, he had too much money chasing nothing.
And when I say too much money, conjured up out of thin air, gargantuan amounts.
So the inflation hit.
And what happens when inflation hits?
Well, he stopped printing because he had to, and he didn't think there was any inflation.
They called the transitory.
So don't worry.
But guess what happened?
Jay Powell didn't raise rates
the market did
the bond market sold off
to account for it
interest rates went from zero up to whatever
don't have to get to the number
and J. Powell was behind
so J. Powell
didn't raise rates that caused it
J. Powell lower rates that
caused it and then the market shot
back the middle finger
and anybody with long bonds
and all these banks were in
the long bonds
and Silicon Valley did what they should have done.
They announced, hey, we lost $2 billion, we unwound things,
and we're going to raise money.
But for whatever reason, they got cooked.
And why did they get cooked?
Well, and I'm not blaming them.
I'm just telling you facts.
Peter Thiel, a major technology influencer,
told all the technology companies moved their money.
So there was a run on the bank and all hell broke loose.
And then there was this other bank that had a lot of crypto.
So all hell broke loose.
And now we have another one first Republic bank.
Where all hell is breaking loose.
So guess what?
$30 billion later.
11 banks gave him $30 billion in deposits.
But is that going to save them?
What did I tell you?
Follow the stock price.
The symbol's FRC.
Just letting you know, upon the news of Farsi, closed at $34.27.
It's down to $12, down another $10 today.
So the market is making a run on First Republic.
They're going to be out or sold.
I can never use the word guarantee to you.
But let me say I have high confidence.
First Republic is now going to be sold very soon.
Somebody will pick it up.
There are deposits there.
Will there be more after that?
I'm going to guess yes.
Which I don't know.
Big is better.
That's my take.
I don't think there's going to be one deposit or losing any money.
I could be wrong.
And why could I be wrong?
The people running the joint are a bunch of numbsculls.
What have I told you?
It's sickening.
It's sickening.
That the people that cause this, they're still running it and telling us everything's a-okay.
And we have tools.
How many times have I made fun of those words?
We have tools.
Oh, a lot.
So just letting you know, today, all the crushed bounce.
But interesting enough, most of the bank stocks that hit a high note early in the day,
most of them finish green
but way off the highs
and some of them
were in the red
and First Republic down
$10.85 cents to $12.18
up next
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A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomach
egg every time that I eat and it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh yeah, you know, I just
I have a stomachache every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And
All of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with.
So that's when we deep dive.
We deep dive into your medication.
We deep dive into your OTC medication.
And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change.
Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeartRadio.
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It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working.
You're listening to.
Hey, this promises to be fun.
Investors Edge.
The last bastion of quality programming.
With Gary Coltbaum.
It doesn't get better than this.
Welcome once again to Investors Edge.
Just because I can, I have to mention something else here.
And then we'll get deeper into things.
I love Steely, Dan.
Tomorrow, at least this is what ex-President Trump says.
He's going to be arrested tomorrow.
And what they're trying to do here in New York
is turn a misdemeanor into a felony.
And disclaimer, I don't like Trump.
There's nothing I can't stand the guy.
I measure people.
Would I want my kids looking up to that person?
That's how I measure people.
and I get from people that are mad for me saying these things, but he had good policies.
My policies would have been better.
And he added $6 to $7 trillion to the debt.
But no doubt, had some good policies.
And he's certainly better than this misfit running the show in the White House right now.
But he lies a lot.
I don't need to get into it.
I'm just letting you know for somebody who can't stand Trump,
boy, is this a bunch of bull crap tomorrow?
I'm not saying he didn't.
do anything illegal. I didn't say that. What I am saying is you have a district attorney in New York
that's lowering the bar on felonies for criminals, violent criminals and shoplifters to make them
misdemeanors, but they're taking what Trump did from a misdemeanor to a felony. It's a political
joke, ladies and gentlemen. And let me be clear and concise. If Trump was a Democrat, this would never
be happening.
It would never be happening.
And again, not even a comment
on whether it was illegal or not.
But I read up about this.
Do you know that this should have been,
he shouldn't have to be perk walked.
I don't know if they're going to do that.
He shouldn't even have a mugshot.
Anyway, don't ever get
into the crosshairs of the people
that don't like you.
That's all I can tell you.
that said
Trump just
doesn't know how to handle anything
for a guy who says
the order wrote the book the art of the deal
he just pisses off
everybody and guess what everybody does
back
anyway so that would be tomorrow
yay
all right so we did the bank thing
and three words
watch the stocks
watch the stocks
okay
Next.
Today's market wrap is brought to by Investment-Dashmottles.com.
That's Jim Rohrubak, one of the great market timers.
No gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market with his proprietary indicators.
Go check it out, Investment-Models.com.
Let me start with the worst stuff.
We have highlighted for you on this show in the markets, what to avoid.
In the last 10 business days, they have crushed a bunch of these air.
Not all, but a bunch.
As you know, the regional banks.
And just remember, and this is true, the KRE, the regional banks, on March 7th, we came out and said,
there's something not good right here.
I don't like the way the regionals are acting and guess what happened after.
That was a pure technical look.
So they've crushed the regionals.
they crushed a lot of banks.
Big banks, not as bad, but still, they hit them pretty good.
They crushed, and so many areas.
Just about all of them had decent bounces today.
I'd call it a percentage basis.
2%, some a little better.
I see a couple of insurance stocks up 4% and 5% today.
But, just remember,
how far they've come down.
Let me throw you one.
Allstate was up 3.84% today to 109.
To 109.
It was 139, three weeks ago.
That's what we mean by context.
Caterpillar and deer.
They're both up about 2.5% today.
Caterpillar went up.
five and change to
220.
It was
255, 8 days ago.
That's
what we mean by, you better have context.
And you better know
you better
know if this is
a bounce or not.
Because
these things got trashed
and if it's the start
of even more trashing
this is how they do it.
Down 10 up two.
Down 15 up 5.
In this case,
melted down up a few.
And you need to know that because most people don't get it.
Don't know it's all about where things have come from.
Parker Hanifan up 3.6% today,
Simple pH, was up almost $11.15 and change.
It was 365 six days ago.
Context.
And you need to need to.
to know if it's in the context of a big downtrend, a little downtrend, a bull market, a bull market,
and all these areas today, all they did was bounce. Steel Dynamics was up 3.6% today.
107 and change. It was 136, seven days ago. And then there's this. City Group opened hot today.
I wouldn't call it hot. Everything in finance.
opened higher today was 45 and three quarters early finished at 44 and finished down on the day
on an up 382 point Dow by the way speaking of context again the Dow was up 382 points today
in the last three four weeks it's down 2200 still points everything in context now could we have
seen a good low today sure
If banks stabilize, which a bunch didn't today,
but if it's deemed that things are stable,
sure, they can bounce these things more.
Just be on your toes.
That's all.
Be on your toes.
Everything in context.
When I'm going to be scanning tonight is all these movers today.
And noticing that Hyatt was up 3% today to 109.
it was one 25, six days ago,
and that's one of the stronger hotel names.
And I can go on and on and on.
You get my point.
Just giving you the context.
Up next.
This, that, and the other thing,
and whatever else.
I'm Gary.
This is the one only investor's edge.
Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman,
host of Beyond the Script,
the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists
to answer the health questions
you didn't even know you could ask
at the pharmacy counter.
In this episode,
we are diving into gut health
with CVS pharmacist
Victoria Motola,
who explains why so many of us
live with stomach issues
we should not accept as normal.
A lot of what I see is just like
chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches.
Like I get a stomachache every time that I eat
and it just becomes like a lifestyle
where, oh yeah, you know, I just have a stomachache every day
or I'm constantly feeling like gassy.
And all of those things are not something
that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive.
We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point,
we can probably identify something that we can change. Here the full conversation, plus some
fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the
script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeartRadio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts.
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I'm listening to.
America is talking.
Investors Edge.
He's got to be pleased with that.
The crowd is just on his feet here.
He's a Cinderella boy.
With Gary Coltbaum.
It comes highly recommended.
You're going to feel better if you talk to him.
And the market wrap is brought to you by Investment-Models.com.
That's Jim Roerbach.
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With his proprietary indicators, go check it out.
Investment-mottles.com.
As stated, Dow was up 382.
And by the way, what was interesting to me, I really thought with the news, just so you know, I didn't mention it yet, but I'm going to in a minute.
With the news over the weekend, I actually thought we'd gap up like $3,400 today.
That did not happen.
The market today pretty much opened up a little bit and rallied.
At least the Dow did.
Others things not as much.
S&P up 34.
NASDAQ only 45, NASDAQ 100, only 42,
and they've had the lead recently.
The semiconductors were down 31.
By the way, the NASDAQ was kind of weak.
And guess what was stronger today?
The mid and small caps, because they have been crushed also.
Advanced declines with the DAP 382,
2,500 up 1469 down.
Not exactly great.
And NASDAQ was pretty much flat, advanced declines today.
yields 3.481 up 0.86 today on the 10 year and that's what matters most. So what was the news
this weekend? Well, do you remember these people? Janet Yellen and Jay Powell, you know, they came out
with a concerted together statement that everything is A-O-K.
There's nothing to worry about.
The banking system is sound.
Well, I ask myself a question.
If the banking system is sound,
why did Jay Powell and every other central bank out there?
A bunch get together for the sake of more liquidity
in the markets.
I thought everything's okay.
Go read about what the central banks did this weekend about liquidity for banks,
about opening up the dollar.
Usually auctions are each week.
Now they're doing them every day.
Go read about it.
Why did they do that if everything's fine?
Let me tell you why.
They're lying.
I can be diplomatic and say the mistake.
lying. They have to put lipstick on, hopefully what's not a pig, but they're liars. Of course,
they can't come out and say all hell's breaking loose, but they shouldn't lie. And how do we know
they're lying again? Well, they did a coordinated effort with all these central banks. It just
tells you they're lying. So we mentioned to you all the areas that were crushed bounce today.
Some didn't. I can tell you the transports were down today.
Few names were down. Retail. It was kind of mixed. There was some red. In the banks. City Group was down. Bank America was down. Wells Fargo was down. M&T Bank was down. Barclays was down. Huh. And in case you don't know, Credit Swiss was bought out by UBS over the weekend for a song and a dance and a backstop and a bailout of UBS just in case all hell breaks lose there. So for all the talk. So for all the talk,
that everything's just fine.
We're letting you know it's not.
Can we come out of this yet?
But my big worry again, I've never been more optimistic on most of us.
I've never been more pessimistic on them.
They really don't have a freaking clue what they're doing.
Jay Powell is an, nothing personal is an absolute economic misfit in a sea of misfits
that are pretty much been wrong on everything.
and he's overrated and everybody's worried about what he's going to do Wednesday.
Yeah, he can move the markets for a day or two.
He can't affect anything that goes on in your life.
The market is taken over again.
Now, if he starts printing money again, if he arbitrarily takes rates down to the Fed funds crazily,
that's another story.
But then the other part of the story is he created all the inflation.
And even though inflation will tend to drop when all hell's breaking loose,
like it has? Oh, it can go right back up. So I wish I had better news on him, but he's a misfit.
Wrong place at the wrong time. Elizabeth Warren says he should be fired. Whoa, Elizabeth Warren
agreeing with Gary Kalpom. But Elizabeth Warren wants him fired for the opposite reason.
Elizabeth Warren wants Jay Powell fired because of his raising of rates. Elizabeth Warren doesn't realize
Jay Powell is not raising rates. He's catching up to the bond market.
market, the yield market.
He didn't matter.
The bond market was raising rates, the real market.
If Jay Powell should be fired, it's for taking rates down to zero percent and printing
all that money, creating the bubbles, creating inflation, creating the bubble crashes,
not seeing the inflation, and now this.
All an outcome of one man and now everybody's waiting with bated breath on this misfit.
on Wednesday
and then he has a
press conference afterwards
and what is he going to say
and you
you can trust me or not
the most
powerful man or not
does not
have a clue
and he does not
believe in free
markets
he forgot that
and I wish he would retire
I wish they would retire
this whole central bank experiment
which only does bad
but I'm a freaking nobody
ain't nobody going to listen to me
even though we nailed this
before anybody
that'll be Wednesday
my guess he does nothing
my guess
no banking
my guess
if he raises rates on Wednesday
I think the market can get even bigger trouble.
Why?
Because he would not be listening to the real market.
He'd be playing God the other way.
So again, we wait with bated breath for a misfit.
Now, I've got to bring up my good buddy, Charles Payne.
he said something that I missed out on.
I didn't think about.
This whole Silicon Valley thing, you know who all the people were that had multi-millions and more at the bank?
All these technology chieftains.
Joe Biden saved the wealthy.
Most people had 250,000.
less they're covered. Joe Biden saved his voters, his voting block. The left side of the aisle
technology bazillionaires were saved. You know Joe Biden, that guy for the little people,
I didn't think of that. I read it up more. Oh, it'd be true. Feel better now. So tomorrow we get
Trump, Wednesday we get Powell, yippie, feel better now. My scans tonight, quite interesting.
Guess what's acting well? That semiconductors, narrow list of technology names on the big side for the
most part, but some smaller names. Semiconductors look really good. And I had a small piece.
on Friday and sold them.
Just thought I had too much in the market.
No blood, didn't lose.
Actually, I think I made a buck.
Memory serves me right.
Semiconductors.
Most of the big tech.
Other tech.
After that, oh, gold.
Not much more.
Up next.
The news of the day.
I'm Gary. This is the one on the Investors' Edge.
Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists
to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter.
In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola,
who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal.
A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches.
like I get a stomach egg every time that I eat
and it just becomes like a lifestyle where
oh yeah you know I just have a stomachache
or I'm constantly feeling like gassy
and all of those things are not something
that generally if you have a healthy gut
you should be living with so that's when we deep dive
we deep dive into your medication
we deep dive into your OTC medication
and then at that point we can probably identify something
that we can change
hear the full conversation
plus some fascinating facts about how gut
health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from
CVS Pharmacy and IHeart Radio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts.
Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it.
With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills
and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing
a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who
never stop. You bring the fire. APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU. APUS.edu.
OnDEC is built to back small businesses like yours. Whether you're buying equipment,
expanding your team, or bridging cash flow gaps, OnDex loans up to $400,000 make it happen fast.
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north dakota all loans and amounts subject to lender approval you're listening to
what are we waiting for one two ready go action investors edge with gary colpa and welcome once again to
investors edge uh by the way again if we sound different on the day like today it's because when we
travel. We have my earbuds, my iPhone, my Lucy Live app, and boom, we're worldwide. It's amazing
modern technology. Amazing. I still remember when Margo Voisich, she was head of HR for a company I was
working for in the 90s, walks into my office and says, hey, just want to let you know we're setting you up on
Inter-office email.
And you know what I said back to her?
What's that?
And you know what I asked?
Why do I need that?
The little things you remember.
I still remember when Apple came out with the iPod.
I said it was going to be a walkman.
Little did I know.
All right.
We have you covered on the markets.
Things that were crushed, bounced today.
Had to bounce someday and did it today.
How long to bounce last?
I don't know how far it goes. I don't know.
Could be some more. Keep in mind.
The bounces after a major down move.
Best of? The gold's working right now.
Some big cap tech. Apple looks like it wants to break above range here.
Broad comment looks like it wants to break above range.
Adobe, which has been a very weak stock,
gapped up on earnings and getting a little bit.
Booking holdings bounced off the 50-day moving average today.
Tesla's holding the 50-day.
S-A-P holds the 50-day.
Semiconductors.
Let me just tell you, the chart of the semiconductors,
and I freely tell you I sold it Friday, I could get right back in.
Looks pretty damn decent.
We'll see if it decides to move above range.
But after that, sprinkling of a few names.
like Ferrari.
Do you know the Ferrari stock,
even though earnings down last couple of quarters,
has been pretty decent and holding the 50 day.
I'll show that tonight also.
But it's just very narrow,
and they better hold up and keep rallying
the semis and some of this tech.
If I were you, watch the banks.
They'll tell a lot also,
because you just don't know
which is the next
or if there's going to be the next
but the world
has put a
backstop on things
with no capital
because everybody's in debt
in the news
the UN
yes the intergovernmental panel
on climate change
now is telling us
we have another 10 years
isn't that good to know
it's a global warming threshold.
Isn't that good to know?
That they told us 15 years ago, 10 years.
Al Gore told us 17 years ago 10 years.
You know, I'm here in New York City.
I can promise you there's no global warming.
Orlando, Florida yesterday in mid-March was 55 degrees.
Just remember, ladies and gentlemen,
climate change is not a hoax.
The climate's always changing.
The people are a hoax.
And the amount of money they're trying to get and have got
with government grants and the bazillions.
They're pretty good at it.
That's the hoax.
Just remember, it used to be global cooling.
Go look it up.
And then the world warmed up for a bit.
So they changed it to global warming.
And then it started cooling again.
So they got in a room and said,
we've got to market this better.
Oh, if we name it climate change, if it gets warm, it's climate change.
If it gets cold.
It's the greatest scam in history, greatest con artistry in history.
And all they had to do is say, we need to work on the environment.
Let's make sure we do good for the environment.
Nope.
Because if they don't create a crisis, how can they have their hands out and get all kinds of millions of dollars for government grants?
How are they able to create companies out of thin air, green energy companies, and get free money?
Unless they create a crisis, that doesn't happen.
That's the hoax, ladies and gentlemen, and they're so damn good at it that people actually believe them.
People actually believe them.
John Kerry, I know I fly private jets, but I'm working for you.
as he shoots the middle finger at you.
Really?
The celebrities who fly private jets to take them to the yachts.
Oh, but they care.
They're all ass clowns.
But since they're celebrity, let's believe them.
And you know what Biden just did?
380 billion of our tax dollars going towards climate.
In one man's hands, John Podesta,
A democratic hack.
Do you know how many people are starting green energy companies in the state of Delaware right now
and who's going to have their hands out?
You got it.
380 billion of our tax dollars going down the shoot, ladies and gentlemen.
And nobody cares.
A $380 billion slush fund.
And nobody cares.
Well, I do.
And a few other voices.
care. But there's nothing we can do about it. Nothing we can do. Besides that, all about the banks.
We'll keep in touch. Just remember what we said. We don't think a deposit is going to lose a dime,
but bigger is better if you ask us. Have a great evening drive carefully. When you get home,
do like we do, it's quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. I'm with my family here. One of
them as COVID though. Make sure you hug your children. They'll feel better. You'll feel better.
Until tomorrow, by the way, I'll be on at noon tomorrow, Fox Business. Same time tomorrow here. Have a
great night, everybody. Bye-bye. This has been Investors Edge with Gary Kaltbaum on BizTalk. To listen to
past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com.
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