Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Bounce or for real [08.08.2024]

Episode Date: August 8, 2024

https://garykaltbaum.com/

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subject to changes. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colpom. I'm your host. A thanks of being with us today.

Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It's August 8th. It's Thursday. It's 2024. Hope you having a good day. As always, this is serious talk that everything affects you. And every now and then we try to help you out with other things in life, which will do a little bit of that at the onset of the show. But first, if you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com.

We'll also post it on our Twitter feed, which is now X. And if you don't follow us on X, you should follow us on X. We're pretty cool. And you can email me, but just be nice. We also post everything at the podcast apps. And we talk serious talk on everything that affects you. We will do the markets, the economy, jobs, unemployment, taxes, deficit spending, scams, shams, corruption. And every now and then, we do health.

So as you know, and I don't pull any punches. I don't drink. You know how many drinks I've had this year? What are we in August? Five. I've had five drinks this year. And I think I beat last year by one. I don't do drugs.

I work out, keep myself in shape. I eat pretty smartly and well. But you never know what's going to pop up. As you know, I had five or six, as you get older, of back spasms a while back, and miraculously they went away. recently both my elbows they're like little

golf balls on them and I'm going to see an ortho next week everybody thinks it's the bursitis but one person said it could be gout because it's on both elbows who knows we'll find out but something else

so today this morning early I had some skin cancer taken out. And the only reason I even knew about it was because about a month ago, on the front of my leg, this big spot shows, not a big spot, but a spot I thought it was out of nowhere. So I decided to get just a checkup on. You know, whatever.

So I didn't realize what they do, but when I get there, they did this whole, started with the scalp, and they went all the way around. And they found five things that they sent away to check on. It came back. Benign, benign, benign. Oh, one of them is skin cancer. And what's funny is they called me up and she said, Basil sells something or other. and I'm like, oh, so what does that mean? Oh, you got skin cancer.

But she was like very nonchalant about it. And whenever you heard that wear cancer, you're like crapping in your pants. But they try to explain to you. No, no, no, no, no. This is not, you know, the, oh, my God type, unless you let these things go. So I'm just letting you know I kind of lucked out. I'm going to go every six months.

for now on to check myself out and just letting you know as you get old, especially if you're in the sun, may want to look at it. So what they did, what was funny is, is that I didn't know what to expect. I was out in 20 minutes, half hour. Boom, boom, boom, boom.

They did what they had to do right now. It feels really. And I'm supposed to travel tomorrow, and I don't, you know, it's, ew. Because it's right in my, pectoral. But I'm just mentioning this to you. I've read about people that died of skin cancer.

And especially if you are in the sun. So just let you know, I'm good. And what was funny was, you know, you always, when you hear that word, you're like, as I said, but I did my work on and stuff like that. And the doctor says to me, yeah, I've done it six times already. I go, what do you mean six times? Oh, I've had six of these. I'm like, what? You've had what?

No, I've had six of these. So just the little heads up on something like that. If you see something as your age, I know they tell you get the colonoscopy every five years at certain age, whatever, I'm going to let you decide all that fun stuff. I'm not here to preach and whatever. I'm just letting you know just my day. in the morning. And now, man, oh man, it's, it's, it's a stinging type, icky type, yicky, little pain in the ass pain as I stand up here.

And then I read this, what I was supposed to do today, sit in a chair most of the day or sit up in a bed, and no, I worked all day. I didn't read the instructions for the day, and maybe that's what the problem is. Anyway, that's our start of the show today. Your health update today, ladies and gentlemen. Always trying to help you with everything that's going on in life in general. On July 11th, with segueing, by the way, notice the big word. With segueing, July 11th, the day before, everything's gone fine, everything's cool, no big deal, whatever, whatever, whatever.

We're a little bit worried because the NASDAQ and the techs were acting so damn well. And we're reading every day about how six stocks are 30% of the S&P and eight stocks are 48% of the NASDAQ 100 and whatever, whatever. And we're happy and all that. And then we got what we consider an important sell signal. and when we give you that a cell signal, nobody blows the whistle, nobody calls us. We're just big believers in the market dictating to us certain things. And sometimes we believe it's loud and clear. Sometimes it's more on the subtle side.

But we thought that was a good one. It was somewhat akin to March 8th when you had that big reversal. basically what it led to was the semiconductors hit a high of 5217 went all the way down to 4288 this time from 5931 it went down we're not making this up by the way

the 4290 on Monday the socks hit within two points of the low on the last correction and I must tell you we didn't even recognize that until last night. And maybe that's what we would call good symmetry. I don't know. So on Monday, we really didn't get any signal except the NASDAQ was down a thousand on the

open, finished down 500. On Tuesday, we were up strong, but finished ick. Yesterday, it was gross. I mean, it was really gross yesterday. Just finished at the lows of the day. And as we always say to you on this show, we have no clue about tomorrow. And we don't really even attempt to have a clue about the next day because you really can't tell. And then there are moments that are just wild, wild swinging reactions. If you think about just the last, let's go back about six days. The, oh, we'll use the NASDAQ. The NASDAQ, the NASDAQ, on August 1st was a Thursday, hit 17791, and closed it 17194, 600 points to the downside. The next day we gap down and finished down about 400 NASDAQ points.

And then the next day we gap down 1,000 points, but only finished down 500. and then the next day at one time we're at 16620 up almost 500 but only finish a couple of hundred and then yesterday we get up to 16709 and close at 16195 500 points and it kind of sort of all happened you know just throughout which leads to today and there's all kinds of news coming out. Oh, is it a recession? Oh, is it a depression? Oh, is it inflation? Oh, is it deflation? Oh, what's going to Fed do? Is they going to do anything? Or they're not going to do anything? Oh, I don't know. So today, interesting enough, before I went to get my little skin cancer out, I wrote a pre-market report to the peep saying, hey, the market's flat in the pre-market. The Dow was down a little bit. The NASDAQ

100 was flat. Hey, yay. Because I don't like up 500 down 500. Well, at 830 they came out with a report. We'll explain. Give you the news.

I'm Gary. This is the one only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kallbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors money for a living, specializing in fee-based, discretionary money management. No big commission.

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Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. So, hey, so we get these economic numbers and there's been worry about the jobs. Okay, fine, dandy. And at 8.30, they came out with some sort of, they call them initial claims. And sorry, I think the numbers are all bull crap.

There's no way of them knowing. but okay, let's whatever. So the expectations were initial claims for going jobless was supposed to be 242,000. They came in at 233,000. So they only beat by 9,000. 9,000 less people went for unemployment. I'm not so sure that's a big deal, is it? It shouldn't be.

It doesn't say things are that much better, does it? Anyway, the market gaps up pretty much. And look, when we give you the final numbers and tell you that the Dow was up 1.something percent, we're going to tell you that NASDAQ was up about 2.6, NASDAQ 100, about 2.8. They don't sound big, but it's still a pretty big day. The semiconductors are up 6% today. though they were the worst group recently dropping 28%. So on this news, and let me be clear, the market moved on this news.

The Dow finished up 683, the S&P 119, the NASDAQ 464, NASDAQ-506, transports 255, though I do want to say there are really no new highs in the market. It tells you how weak things are. I have maybe on two hands actual new highs in the market. And I'm actually going to give you out the symbols not to tell you to buy them to review them. But as I give you these numbers, I just want to make sure you know a couple of things. First off, number one, as we said, as the market was dropping, we're always isolating the strength. What ain't going down?

And we can tell you, I might as well right now. New Yearly High List, Go Daddy. Mercado Libre. Spotify is close Fico which is fair Isaac It's kind of fair Intuitive surgical is close

Motorola Solutions Something you probably never heard of called Parsons Something you never heard of Transmedics I got a couple I have an oil stock in something called Viper Energy

that's it there are a few other highs but some of them are dollar stocks no sales biotechs and the like and we isolate them and if we think the market's not going to go any lower we'll see but we just want to make sure of a couple of things what happened today so ASML today was up 40 to 876. You got that? It's still down 224 points dollars from two to three weeks ago. Mike Ron was up $5 in change today to 92. It was 157 in June. We're just doing some semis, if you don't mind. Lamb Research was up 51 today to almost 800. It was 1130 on July 11th. You catch in my drift?

The NASDAQ was up 464 today to 16660. It's still down 2,011 points from July 11. And we are not throwing cold water on today's action. We're just letting you know the context. the NASDAQ 100 was up 546 today to 184. It was 20,700, July 11th. The Dow was up 683 today. It's still down 1,900 points, almost 2,000 points from July 11th.

So we just want to make sure you know that, but we're not going to shrug off. today and I'm going to make a statement that is of import. Our guess, at least for now, is that Monday. And we're not necessarily talking the Dow, but Monday, the NASDAQ, which was down 1,000, finished only down 500. we think that 500, add the 500 that it caught it back, we think it's going to be very tough to break that right now based on what we're seeing this second. We think there's probably some more to go

and we'll know a lot more in the days ahead. We hope the low has been put in. There's been a lot of damage done, leadership, not many. as I stated. There are good reaction to earnings. We'll take it day by day. But Monday now starting to feel,

and let me make another point, violence in the market usually happens at turning points. So maybe, maybe. We'll see. But very good day. No cold water on it. volume picked up a little bit today

I don't know if they you know we talk about confirmation days and all that stuff I'm careful about that here we just had one a while ago and failed miserably the next day so we're not going to go there we'll just say to you

very good day let's hope it continues definitive in price today I wish there was more of an explosion in volume but it was better than the and I've yet to do my scans. We'll see what we can find.

But much, much better tone off of what I thought was nothing news. But as we have said to you, it's not the news. It's how markets react to the news. That's what is always going to matter most. because markets are the entity that telegraphs things going forward and sometimes doesn't take much to change minds

especially when you're dealing with a lot of nonsense Japan elections that I think are somewhat imbecilic I'm still nobody because the media sucks how were they not up in arms

how this thing got to Kamala Harris being the candidate and not doing a primary? She was selected, not elected. I think that's bull crap. But I don't run the show. Up next, what else do I have to tell you on the markets?

And then, there was a press conference today with Donald Trump. My thoughts. This is the one only investors edge. Guys, it's no use putting it off. Best time for an underwear refreshes now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretched than competing brands.

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like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change.

See Capital One.com for detail. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker, the platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, in about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing.

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He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on its feet here. He's a Cinderella. with Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to. All right. What else?

Gold. We're just going to say gold is in a trading range going back to April. Hit a little higher in weeks ago than April, but we're going to call trading range since April. A big breakout out of that would be meaningful, and it tried. And as I, full disclosure, we bought it in mid-June. and stopped out. And it's a little higher than where we sold. There's your gold.

The 10-year yield, bouncing up after getting trashed. 10-year yield went basically from 4.3 to a low month, and leave no doubt, listen carefully. If you want to be able to follow something that's dictating the market this second, it's this next statement, the 10-year yield. normally yields coming down good for the market yields going up bad for the market but yields going down have indicated that problem with japan and indicated softer economy or recession yields going up indicate i wouldn't say japan has their act together but that nonsense may be out of the way for now and maybe the world ain't ending on monday it is by no coincidence that the market

had that nice NASDAQ reversal halfway yields reversed the yields on Monday hit the 10-year yield do do do do do do uh 3.669 yet closed at 3.785 and now we're back to 3.997 up again today so that is of note that is of note and we're going to watch that closely the semiconductors very big day today up 6.86% the semiconductors but it has gone from 5931 and it closed it 4730 today even though it was up 300 and it's just back to yesterday's high so 5931 that's 22 let me make sure that 1200 points on 5930 30, that would be about, it's still over 20%, which has me stopping and saying the semiconductors got back above the 200-day moving average today. But man, oh man, I mean a deep drop. The NASDAQ held the 200-day moving average on Monday, as does the NASDAQ, as does the NASDAQ

100. That is going to be vital. You take that out. Then we're talking overall bear markets. You hold opportunity. Simple as that. So just let you know the semis are still down 20 and then there are things like a micron. 157 to 92. That's 865. 452%. 42%, 43%. Just letting you know. know the financials very important the xlf which is the financial select index got a little bit back above the 50 day straight down a little bit back up important the kb wb which is the nasdaq bank index almost there trying the regional banks held the 50 day on Monday day on Monday day after just coming straight down. In case you don't know, pretty much 59 down to 51. That was about 16% in three days. As we have stated, there's been some serious drops.

But no cold water on today. Don't really need to get into individual names, but in the Dow, Amgen was down 20-something yesterday on earnings, back up 11 today. A catarrow. A catarrow. pillar's been weak economics up 10 Goldman Sachs one of the stronger big names up 12 and that's above the 50 day moving average the strongest what I consider to be mega caps Facebook meta which had a good reaction to earnings before it got trashed because of the market back above the 50 day but sitting in a range going back to march and as you know we made some serious hey on meta Starting in January, sold into March and April. But back again, made a little coin. And just everything was up today, pretty much. Most everything green. That's the best way I can put it.

I would suggest probably leads to a little bit more upside. But then we're going to hit something, and you know what that is, right? Massive overhead resistance. the normality would be backing and filling. What does that mean? Test and retests back and forth, repair the damage. But in the case of wicked wild swings, fed, I'm open to all outcomes,

but I really, today feels like a confirmation of what happened on Monday. That's what it feels like. I did not say we're off to the races. It just feels like today was a confirmation of Monday. The Dow was only dropped 1,200 Monday, finished down 1,000, but the NASDAQ, which is a lot more meaningful to me. And now we'll see what else going forward. I don't think it's going to be easy.

I will tell you I had no inquiries today. about shorting the market. I've had a dozen of them in the last day or so. Why? Because price changes people's thought process. And today was a good day. You also had some good reaction to earnings. You ever hear of Boot Barn? I've never been in one. Eight percent earnings growth was good enough for 16 bucks or 14 percent. Go figure. Eli Lilly, and here's another context, was up $73 today to $845, but at the high of two and a half weeks ago was $966. You're always in context, ladies and gentlemen. So my job's going to be tonight, measuring stick.

I already know where the leadership is. I knew it yesterday. I knew it the day before. I knew it the day before. But you really need confirmation on the market. Why? Because if the market continues to sink, going to get everything. And I can tell you, Meadow, one of my favorite big name, when it

gapped up last week, it went from 520 down to 450 because of the market. So if the market craps out again, potential trouble. So we need the right market conditions. Today, I'm not saying goes a long way, I'm saying it goes away towards confirmation that Monday may have been worst of. If I had the market do my bidding now, have a couple of quiet days, little pullbacks, but you know the market doesn't give a crap what I want or what I think. We'll see how it goes. So that is a pretty good synopsis of what we're seeing, what we're thinking. And man, oh man, it has been harrowing. And just so you know, we pretty much missed the drop.

And it's still harrowing to watch. Still worry about the complacency. Everybody's on the tube. Everything's fine. Don't worry. Everything's good. Don't worry. Great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great.

Just the correction. Everything's fine. Everything's good. The problem with all that, whenever we do go into a big bear market next, you know what they're going to say? Everything's fine. Everything's great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great. Bull market, bull market, just a correction. Don't worry, everything's okay.

Everything's fine. Everything's good. Remember that. And let's hope the worst is over. But there's a lot of broken stuff. Broken. We'll see if the broken gets better. Again, we're open to any and all outcomes.

Up next. Hey, there was a press conference today. Election time. This is the one known the investor's edge. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. There's zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands.

and their innovative horizontal quick draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card.

Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit. for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet?

Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need. explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, Sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster.

The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Sprinker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more my podcast. microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for?

One, two, ready, go. Action! In the Gester's Edge with Gary Culpa. Hey there. All right. So, uh, let me read these headlines to you. By the way, you know who Tim Walz is, right? He's the guy that's now running for vice president with Kamala Harris. Kamala Harris. Headline is Tim Walls the Midwestern Dad Democrats need.

Headline, Tim Walls could take it to the house. Comparing to a running back. Headline, why Tim Walls will be a potent weapon for Kamala Harris. Headline. Harris, Walls, and Democrats' joyful campaign. Headline, Democrats have needed someone like Tim Walls for decades. These are the headlines. Do you know what the headlines are on J.D. Vance?

He's weird. As we have told you, and we don't really need us to tell you these things, if Trump picked Mother Teresa, she would suck also. if Kamala Harris picked Jeffrey Dahmer, they'd figure out how to make him into a hero. Obviously, those are two extremes, but you get the point. But that's what's happening with the media. And it's unfortunate. It's unfortunate.

It's also unfortunate that this whole thing was the royal scam. Great album by Steely Dan. this was all pre-planned, let it time go, then get Biden's butt out. And they threatened them, and they got them out. And it was too late for a primary. We'll go with her. Why? You know what a primary does.

Do you remember the last ones for Biden? Kamala Harris said Biden was a racist. You remember that, right? They couldn't, wouldn't, wouldn't want infighting with only three months to go. Great royal scam on you and I, but the way it is right now, the left loves the left, the right loves the right, and the media kisses the, you know what, of the left, and they're doing a great job of it. No interviews, just teleprompter, 18 days, it's laughable, and the reason is, yesterday on this show, I did a question, what my interview would be with Kamala Harris,

It wouldn't last five minutes before she would smack me in the face because she could not answer easy to answer questions because then she'd have to tell you who she is. High taxes, massive regulations, rules, fees, fines, mandates, oversight, control, giveaways, you name it. We don't want Trump either, but it's a binary choice. bit of Trump today. Press conference, very undisciplined. If I had him, as I was an advisor, I would compartmentalize him into just a few tidbits and hit him hard. But he has to go all over the place, and unfortunately loses a lot in the shuffle. but he's got some proposals out there.

One, getting rid of taxes on Social Security. By the way, I don't know if you know this. A long time ago, you didn't pay tax on Social Security. Now, I'm not sure if he meant for everybody or some people, but not a bad idea. You know what we think of less taxes. It's good news. People keeping more of their money.

And you know what we think of Social Security, the greatest con job in the history of this country? Never needed it. never needed a Social Security Administration. All they had to do was a forced retirement account for you. Goes into this account, goes into 10-year bonds. Every 10 years they redo. You know how much more money you'd have right now and still have control of it

and not have a Social Security Administration that's running out of money because they spent it all? So good idea. He talked lower taxes, less regulation. It's what we want. we believe in we the people. Now, I don't think he's going to be able to get it done. He'd have to have the House and the Senate.

And it's going to be a tough road. Don't know where it ends up. I think the Senate will, very good chance to go in Republican, but who knows? The House should have been a blowout last election, but that got screwed up and let's take away the blame for the second. I give them a six out of ten on the press conference. Should have been a ten out of ten. Why? The questions were of friendly questions.

They didn't have the real media asking questions. I think I heard a couple of people in the real media, but, you know, the harsh ones. If I was a candidate, I want the people that hate me asking the questions. If I was a conservative candidate, I'd go on CNN and MSNBC. You know why? Those are the people that don't want to vote for me. Imagine if I can convert them with my we the people talk. And now higher taxes don't make the wealthy poorer,

but prevent you from becoming wealthy. Less police doesn't help your family. It helps the criminals. You know, logic. Hope he put his best efforts in. they have now announced they're definitely going to have a debate in September. They should have three or four. I should be the moderator of one.

They'd be throwing watermelons at me and super soaker shooting me after five minutes, though, because they couldn't take my questions. Anyway, great day in the market. Probably get some upside from here too. then the rubber is going to meet the road. We'll be on it. Think we're on Fox Business Network tomorrow with Neil Cavuto noon hour, even with my stitches and staples and all that crap.

So you all have a great evening drive carefully, and that's Fox Business Network. When you get home, do like we do. Quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better.

I promise. Peace out. Thanks for joining. Serenity now. Bye-bye. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult bomb on Biz Talk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to Garyk.com. That's GaryK.com.

Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretched than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more. comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with code comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John, comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium

benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change.

See Capital One.com for details.