Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Breaking Down

Episode Date: August 17, 2023

garyK.com or https://garykaltbaum.com/

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Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for detail. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colbom, your host.

A thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. And before I start, it's not my fault. It's Thursday, August 17, 2023. No, really, it's my fault. We'll get into that in a minute. If you do not get this radio show in your city, we will post it at garyk.com. We'll also post it on our X feed, since it's not Twitter feed anymore, you should follow us on X because I'm very charming.

So go check it out. And again, if you email me, just be nice as we start every day. Maui up to 106. what can I tell you? They're finding children. They're saying there's a thousand people still missing, but they found 60, so I think there's a lot just unaccounted for.

Let's just hope. And thoughts and prayers. Which means we segue. So we're going to be really market-related today, ladies and gentlemen. and why. We present ourselves as nobody better in the business, best eyes in the business. Wall Street being a fully invested vehicle will never tell you

while we're telling you little by little piece by piece, inch by inch, markets breaking down. Recently, we talked about, well, go, and silver never got going. We talked about all the software and all the software blowups. And blowups and blowups. We talked about the top in the semiconductors

breaking the 50 day, the S&P breaking the 50 day. The Russell 2000, which has been dead meat the whole time. The financials gagging again to the point where we mentioned, do you know Citigroup is back to the lows when Silicon Valley bank hit?

We've been telling you about We had some hot opens that were completely sold off. We were telling you about how the advanced decline figures absolutely in the market suck. We've been telling you how they've been hardly any new yearly highs and new yearly lows picking up on a daily basis. They got a few other things today. There have been areas that have held up pretty darn well. One of them's been housing. We're just letting you know they broke down the house.

housing today with volume, with vigor. So the housing ETFs, the housing related stocks got smoked today. And then there are things that are involved with housing. Construction of them. For example, Home Depot lows. Things you put into your house like pools or furnaces. and the like. They broke all those down. Remember how we were telling you how the cement stocks? Cement, they broke the cement stocks down today. Now, what do we mean by breaking down?

Well, it's not easy to do it on a radio show. It's better during our webcast. But simply put, draw staircase going up. flat up flat up flat up flat up flat up flat and now it doesn't go up instead it goes back down one no big deal and then it goes flat again but then it goes down another break down that's what we mean and we're talking about breakdowns off the tops breaking below the 50-day moving average which we tell you, we implored for you people to learn because on Wall Street they laugh at it

while they're losing their arse in bare markets. So we can tell you that things like Martin Marietta materials MLM, cement, breaks the 50 day today. We can tell you the ITB, which is the U.S. home construction, breaks the 50 day to day on 161% volume. I can even see the XHB. The XHB, which is Home Builders Industry Index, breaks the 50 day-to-day on 160% volume. I can tell you, we'll continue.

How about symbol BLDR? Manufactures related building products for residential. Down 17 bucks today to 130 on 92% more average volume. And I've always been wondering about this one, because their earnings have stunk. They got that one today. You probably don't know this symbol, A-Z-E-K. Same thing, down 6% today.

And I can go on and on and on, but I'm not done. Because as I went through my scans and I've been scanning like a madman in the last hour, Lowe's, bye-bye. Home Depot, which was trying here, roll it over today. Pool, simple P-O-O-O-L, you know what they do. Pools.

Goodbye. Why? Housing. But I'm not done. X-L-I is the industrials. They've been holding up pretty well. It's just an exchange-traded fund for industrials. Broke the 50-day-day-day.

Just another one. And as I go through, and I've yet to start my scans where I basically go through biggest losers, oh, I know what I'm going to find. I know what I'm going to find. And the culprit, 4.308 on the 10-year yield, $80.00, or the other party equation, we've been just telling you historically, valuations are on the high side.

And maybe they're coming home to roost. I don't know. All I can tell you, little by little piece by piece, inch by inch. Now, what it turns into, I don't know. So let's go backwards. In 2021, the last one, we were telling you, little by little piece by piece, inch by inch, they are breaking down, all the technology names at the time and all the big leaders. And at that time, we did say to you very simply, well, if we go into a real bare market, average stock drop 70% past leaders. and everybody was like, what?

I was getting emails. What? What? No way. Well, they did. And we told you at the same time, we don't know if we're going to go into a bare market. All we know is everything that starts off looking like we're going into a bare market was occurring.

This one a little bit different. We're not coming off bubbles. But we never got back to the old highs. You know that. I believe we said yesterday the Russell 2000 was still down in the 20s. The NASDAQ was still down 16 or 17 from the highs of 21. So not so short, but all we can tell you, more and more things today topped out, more and more areas topped out.

And there's a word I use when it comes to these things, and that's called Heed, Heed, H-E-E-D. What that means to you, I don't know. Let me go a little bit further. There have been some real good reaction to earnings lately. Gaps to the upside on strong earnings growth. Here's one. Down 8%.

Here's another one down 7%. Here's one down. You get my point? Because if we turn into a phase of bearishness, What's our other line we use with you? They get them all to a certain extent. They did a little bit of that today. So heed.

We do. We don't futs around with this. We know what the roadmap looks like. We know the ports of departation and embarkation. I'm just using the words when you get on a cruise ship. You get my point. How about entry and exit? And all we can tell you is it worsened today.

That's the best we can tell you. Advance the clients crappy, up-down volume crappy, new lows picked up, new highs, contracted. There's hardly any new highs. And more areas the market got in trouble and are topping out. Oh, did I tell you truckers? truckers look like they're getting into trouble. Now also, it started yesterday with J.B. Hunt. Couple of stronger ones, O'DFL, Old Dominion and S-A-I-A, smacked.

Up next, we'll continue. Lots more. This is the one only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living. specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services,

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Association of Realtors. They're right by you. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this.

And welcome once again to Investors Edge. Thanks for being with us today. I wish I had better news. Stair steps heading down for a lot of things now. And there's some questions. Just remember what we do here. A, we deal with what we see. We follow a specific roadmap.

B, we do ask questions. Why is Citigroup at New Yearly Lows? Not New Yearly Lows, Lows where they were when Silicon Valley hit. why are they getting housing and housing related now and I have to believe finally the 7.5% mortgage thing. What's going on with these software names? Well, I do believe, how many times have we been on the show saying, boy, this stock is up big, earnings are down 30, revenues are down 30. We think that may be coming to roost. And valuations.

We've said to you on this show, the S&P, is showing valuations around 20, 21, when should be 15? Wait a minute, Gary. If it goes to 15, that's a 25 to 30% drop. Hey, we're just telling you what the normality is. Historical. That's all. So a rough day, worsened.

They got the housing, housing-related construction. They got the hotels. A couple of hotels have been acting pretty darn well. They got them pretty good today. We'll call them rolling over, not necessarily breaking down. And then there's the biggies. Apple had already broke down now moving below a bare flag. Microsoft, same thing.

Netflix croaking. Tesla croaking. Holding up Amazon, but Amazon's filling the gap off their earnings. Google acts better. Facebook broke the 50-day handily. Booking holdings, the old price line really had a good reaction. Oh, down 83 today. We heed. You get to decide what you want to do. We know what you're going to hear from Wall Street. Don't worry. Think long-term. Everything's okay. And when we do our webcast, we go, yeah, think long-term, and then we show a stock down 70%. What we also

found today is some names that haven't broken below the 50 day in eight, nine months that did it today. That adds. We also have some stocks that gapped up big today and finished down, gapped up on earnings and because the market's weak, finished down. So I have no idea what tomorrow brings. I just let you know that it worsened again today. And the more things trade below the 50 day or worse, the rougher it's for the market, we call it headwinds, and that is it in a big, fat, juicy nutshell. So today's market wrap brought to you by Investment-Dashmottles.com.

That's Jim Roarback, one of the great market timers. No gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market with his proprietary indicators. Go check it out. Investment-dash-models.com. $290 on the Dow. And for the record, United Health was actually acting okay. Something came out with California today and who they're going to pay and do business. Cigna drop 18 bucks today to 270.

The United Health dropped almost 10. So that breaks that little trend on United Health for right now in the Dow. Apple, we told you about Boeing. Boeing's been acting pretty darn well, had a good reaction to earnings, just gave it all back. today home depot well housing related how about this one Walmart they came out with earnings and the amazing story on Walmart is onefold how do you grow your revenues by 7% when you already do 620 billion your Walmart one of the greatest companies ever created on this earth has massive wealth build. I know cashiers that became managers of stores.

Anyway, that opened up. Finished down 350 today. And 350 for Walmart's a big move. Some oils were up today. So the Dow down 290, S&P down 34, NASDAQ 157, NASDAQ 160, transports another 165. Boy, the transports. Gave it all back. Advanced declines and here's the problem. 1,154 up, 2816 down on the NASDAQ, 1,306 up, 2835 down. That's worsening. New yearly lows, 114 on the New York, 261 on the NASDAQ. New yearly highs, well, you ready for this?

I'm going to give you out your new yearly highs in the market right now, because it probably take eight seconds. on the NASDAQ, new yearly highs, Cisco systems, it gapped up on earnings and remained at new highs today. Good on them. That's it for the NASDAQ. No, not kidding. There's a few other SPACs that don't trade. Oh, I have a name.

Gambling.com. It's a new yearly high. on the New York. Let's see, Permian resources that I got to be oil. Yes, that's a new yearly high. UBS, that got another new high today. CNX, that's an oil. Performance Food Group, PFGC, distributes food. C-EI-X, Consolidated Energy. That is a coal stock. Alpha metallurgic, that's a coal stock. The CBOE, that's the CBOE, that is an exchange, electronic platform, that's your new yearly highs on the New York. Do you love me yet?

Hey, we don't cause this, we just interpret it, react to it, get the hell out of the way of it. Simple as that. Now, I know you're hearing some things about August and September, bed, I couldn't care less. Do you know why? Didn't they tell us selling May and go away? And how did that work out? So I don't really care. I don't really care what month it is. All we can tell you is today. Worson. Up next. We'll do some more. This is the one only investors edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect.

Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker.

The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Sprinker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might

someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet?

Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. You're listening to. America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy.

With Gary Coltbaum. highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. Well, part of what we do here, unfortunately we have to do, is make sure you know who's BSing you and who's not. And unfortunately, there is a ton of the BSers out there. And as you know, we curry no favor. We have no bias of gender ulterior motive. Our bias is in you.

think all the politicians and pundits suck we mean that my favorite got out of the political business years ago Mitch Daniels who is not running for anything but what we really have to take on are the people that'll stare you in the face and tell you it's sunny out when it's raining and raining out when it's sunny and they'll use any little thing that sticks out while other things are in big trouble to sway you because it's their guy or it's the other guy or the other gal.

So there's a guy named Robert Reich, R-E-I-C-H. He's an avowed socialist-Marxist-type guy. He's a professor also. I don't know him, never met him. I'm sure he's a good father, husband. I've got nothing against him personally. This is pure business. He goes on MSNBC and says we're living in a Goldilocks economy.

And of course, you know what MSNBC is? It's just change the name. You do know that, right? Okay. All day. The anchors all day. One's bad. The other's good.

Goldilocks economy. Let me talk to you about the Goldilocks economy. Well, number one, job market's good. We tell you the truth. The job market is held strong. Don't know the reasons don't care because we care about people first, and the job market has held. But we do know one thing about the job market. It's usually the last to go.

And why do you think that is? Well, companies are loath to get rid of people until they're for. for sure. Now, as you know, the mortgage business, they got rid of people because they're sure. There's no more 3% mortgage. The crypto business, they got rid of people. For sure, what he fails to tell you about this Goldilocks economy. Goldilocks is that credit card usage just went over a trillion bucks for the first time, 600 million credit cards, that the interest rate on the credit card just skyrocketed. He failed to say that. What's the problem with massive credit card usage? Well, it's simple. It's debt. And the paying off of that credit card is also way up there,

meaning the opposite, not paying off as much. What does that tell you? It tells you people may be spent up. Savings rates, they've plunged, bounced a little, but have really plunged. So you put those two things together. What else does Robert Reich tell you about the Goldilocks economy that Joe Biden is going to spend between $1.6 and $2 trillion this year more than they are taking in? And that goes into GDP. Now crushes later. Oh, he doesn't say that. He doesn't say anything about inflation. Now, we can. these government inflation numbers you believe them now of course it's come down do you remember when eggs spiked up well they're way down but do you believe them goldilocks you know i went to get the ruffles

yesterday and the party size is like 25 percent lower smaller than it used to be at the same price or higher inflation rent inflation Cars. Do you know the average car price now is the highest ever? Inflation. And that's for used cars also. Goldilocks. Hmm. Goldilocks. Anyway, he's just another one of the punditry. I'm not going to use the word. I'll just say clown. That doesn't give a crap about you and it'll lie out as you know what. Just to my guy, I got to make him look good. And if all hell breaks loose, somehow it's going to be the other guy's fault, even though that other guy's not in power. And by the way, that goes for the other side also. You know how the Republicans are complaining about Joe Biden and the spending in deficits now?

They didn't give a crap when Trump was doing it. They didn't care at the time. So they can take a flying leap also. But we felt it, you know, just in case you saw this, Marxist socialist guy on TV, throwing rainbows out of as you know what, that lie to you about the Goldilocks economy. Oh, by the way, did you also read the percentage of people that don't have 700 bucks in their pocket?

Goldilocks, huh? Well, maybe Goldilocks for him because he gets to teach this stupid as a professor at some college or something for the big bucks that he makes. I think Goldilocks may be in the eye of the beholder. Anyway, I had to bring that up. I got nothing really new on Biden today except if finding more money and more money being handed out to his family. Boy, his family, well done.

It's a bunch of them got millions and millions of bucks for not working. Can I get in on that? By the way, you do know that the Democratic Party knows about all this and they're scared you know what and if this really gets out in a real bad way you think they're going to let him continue to run i don't think so let me repeat they have all the evidence if joe biden was a republican it'd be over by now because the media would actually investigate it they would do their job do you remember the russia collusion with trump do you know

they sent out i think it was it nbc or somebody or new york times they said it's sent out like 70 investigators? You think they've sent out once on this? Nope. And that's what we're dealing with. Goldilocks! Anyway, I wish I had something redeeming to tell you about the market today. The only thing I can say, it's oversold, but it was oversold coming into today and it took another crap today. And it worsened today. Because other groups that were holding up well, they took them down but good housing housing related construction materials industrial and the like oh yeah and some retail Costco was down 11 today that had been acting okay so stay tuned one word heed heed heed and just remember the market cannot

go up if the market is below the 50-day moving average. I think the Dow actually broke it two today. In order to go up, price must be above, so they must get back above. That can happen. But as of now, things are just breaking below. And now they're getting the Dow. And the rest of the areas just mentioned. If anything changes, we'll let you know. But we've been walking you through this for how long now? The deterioration. Just by reporting to you, not have to predict anything. Just interpret. And we'll scan 1,500 stocks tonight, 200 sectors, subsectors, countries, Oh, China, Brazil, all of them are getting whacked now. Up next.

Yeah, we'll think of something. This is the one only investors' edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.

The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio.

If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is, Sprinker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Sprinker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Sprinker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect,

like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.

You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! In the Gester's Edge. With Gary Culpa. Some news.

And some worry. Simple VFS. Vin Fast Auto Let me just say for the record to you Electric Vehicle Startup They're even They're still able to do that It's soared to an outsized

valuation they did a SPAC They actually merge with a SPAC It's controlled by a Vietnamese conglomerate called VIN Group On its opening day on the NASDAQ It got an 86 billion dollar valuation It's a startup. See where I'm going with this? Boy, does that worry me.

You know what else worries me? You all getting crazy. Just want to let you know VFS was a $10 SPAC. The maniacs took it from 10 to 38 in a day and a half. And they have nothing. It's already back to 1940, down 50% in two days. days. It ain't worth a buck. Remember, a lot of the SPACs are trading at 50 cents, 25 cents. You got that? Promises of riches, just a bunch of bull crap. Want you to be careful.

I'm amazed they were able to do it again. These creeps, these cretons, foist in hunks of junk onto the investing public. It's sickening to me. That was in the news. What else? China. Literical article, why a company's financial crisis threatens China's economy. Country Guard was China's biggest real estate developer.

Now it's staring down default. Get this. $200 billion in unpaid bills. Billions of dollars in losses. And what did they do? Let me give you the simple form. They piled debt on top of debt to build more and piled more debt on top of debt to build more

and put out more debt on top of debt to build more while finally the prices for things that they would win in debt for started coming down leading to all hell breaking loose. And it's not just this company. It's others. They've already skipped two interest payments in August. I guess they have some sort of grace period. The stock in Hong Kong is fallen below a dollar.

And look out. That's all I can tell. tell you. That's what's going on in China. And years ago, I think I was in China, 2016, and we took a trip in a car, and we saw, you know, we were always told about the ghost cities, that they built cities, not just a building, but they're like cities, and nobody was in them. They would build malls and high rises and stores empty. There were a bunch of them. And I was always thinking to myself, when is this going to hit?

And I've heard, and I saw video one, they've actually imploded one of the cities. They finally just got rid of it because nobody ever moved in. So who knows what's behind the curtain when, it comes to China. What I can tell you, the FXI, which is an ETF, the China 50 index, which closed the 2685 today, that's where traded in 2006. Hit a higher 73 in 2007. Maybe the market already knows, but I think there's more to what than meets the eye. We'll find out in due time. That is a reason why we haven't touched Chinese stocks. And every now and then they wake up a little bit.

We call it accounting risk, government risk. And man, oh man, that government, if that ain't going from capitalism to the communism, I don't know what it is. And people I know in Hong Kong are less than thrilled with what's going on there. They jailed journalists that say anything bad about the government. They made up a law. And we're always amazed when somebody says, yeah, you got to go international. Really? You do? Why? And don't get me wrong. There have been plenty of countries that have had good moves and good moves down. I mentioned the FXI ETF, the emerging markets ETF, closed at 3866 today. It hit that in 06 also. Catch in my drift?

be careful about all the talk gotta diversify in the other countries and yeah yeah yeah there have been some good moves Turkey that's had a nice move in the last two months with their big inflation rate terrific

I know Greece had a decent move no argument just be careful hey tomorrow's Friday I should be on with Neil Kavut tomorrow. That would be in the noon hour. Fox Business Network, check that out. Hopefully the markets are better tomorrow, but boy, they finish ugly today. You have a great evening, drive carefully when you get home, do like we do. It's quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure

you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise. Again, hopefully better day tomorrow. It was pretty icky. Have a good night, everybody. Peace out. This has been Investors' Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryKK dot com. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer

to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.