Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Breaking Out [12.11.2025]
Episode Date: December 11, 2025https://garykaltbaum.com/The opinions you hear on BizTalkRadio, BizTV, or BizTalkPodcasts are those of the hosts, callers, and guests and do not necessarily reflect those of BizTalkRadio, BizTV, or Bi...zTalkPodcasts, its management or advertisers. The information on BizTalkRadio does not constitute a recommendation, offer, or solicitation to buy or sell any product or securities. Please consult a professional before investing.
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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum.
Straight talk about you and your money.
Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum.
And welcome once again to Investors Edge.
I'm Gary Colbom, your host.
A thanks of being with us today.
Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening.
It's Thursday.
It's December 11th.
It's 2025.
Hope you having a good day.
As always, we got serious.
talk on everything that affects you.
We'll do the markets, the economy, your job, your industry, the central bank, the president,
and all the nonsense that is being spewed out there.
We'll cover it without any agenda, ulterior motive or bias.
The only thing we care about is you.
We're quite different than most others.
Anyway, if you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com.
We'll also post it on our X-Fee.
and if you don't follow us on X, you should.
If you like to email us, just be nice.
By the way, we'll also post it on our podcast apps
and the YouTube channel of BizTV.
Okay, the main question I got today,
does all this stuff with the central bank
lowering rates and buying up bonds help the economy?
Didn't ask about the markets, the economy.
This is the way I look.
at it. If the market soar because of it, certainly it makes people feel more wealthy and should
help to a certain extent. Does it create any jobs? No. Does it improve lifestyle? No. That's all.
The point in time where things got really affected is when Jay Powell went insane.
and we call it insane and we'd say it to his face that he interfered with markets, took rates to zero,
screwed the savers, made the wealthy wealthier, got you to refinance at 3%.
Just remember, that was not free market base.
That was one man.
Think about this.
One man out of the 350 million people in this country was able to print a $9 trillion.
Well, he can't do that anymore.
I take it back.
He can do it.
Amazingly so.
Yes, he can do it.
And that's the sick thing.
So what happened yesterday,
just letting you know,
is he lowered the Fed Funds rate
a quarter point.
Should that rally the Dow
a thousand points in two days?
Nah.
But what else did he do?
He said he's buying bonds again.
That's huge to the market.
In case you don't know, markets about perception, thought, and what I call on the pile-on factor.
And perception is, when he's buying bonds, it should force interest rates down should, and lifts up everything that's a benefactor.
Pretty much anything economically sensitive.
So what you have, let me tell you about today.
Cruise lines been dead, been dead.
Royal Caribbean today was up 7%.
Carnival was up 6%.
Did they make any more money?
No.
Did more people know?
It's that easier money lends itself to perception that,
oh, things are going to get better.
Hotels had a strong day.
I mentioned cruise lines.
Nothing wrong with the airlines today.
Economically sensitive stuff.
How about something called W.W. Granger?
You know them, tools and lighting.
The stock's been dead.
Dead.
Since yesterday has gone from 9.50.
We're not making this up.
9.58 to 1,000 and 32.
Last I looked, that's 74 points.
Last eye looked, that's like 8%.
The stock has done nothing since February of 24 and is way down from the highs.
But it now wakes up.
To what extent we don't know, we're just reporting to you the news.
But that's how things work.
United Rentals has been blasted on worsening outcome.
The stock from yesterday has gone from 784 to 8.
34. What else is on the move? The commodities. Well, why would commodities move? Well, it's pretty
simple. If you're going easier money, you weaken the dollar, our dollar against other currencies,
which means not much if you hear, but if you decide to travel to Europe,
it's going to take more of our dollar to buy the euro or the pound.
But what else does it do?
A weaker dollar has commodities going up because they're priced in U.S. dollars.
A weaker dollar means it takes more of them to buy the same amount
and makes commodities cheaper for buyers you're using stronger currencies.
That's why.
So gold, silver, metals and mining going up.
What else goes up?
The multinationals.
Companies that do a lot of business over there that are over here.
It makes our goods cheaper for them to buy, which increases our exports to them.
That's all.
And it makes those foreign earnings more valuable when converted back to dollars and basically boosts revenues and profits.
So you got a bunch of multinationals doing well.
The banks, Goldman Sachs.
Well, we'll get into the size in a second,
but Goldman Sachs from yesterday went from 876 to 910.
Why?
Easier money.
More to lend.
Easier to lend.
Easier to make money off of that.
That's what these companies do.
And this is not a pejorative, but they're great bookies.
They're buyers of companies, and if it's easy to buy companies, the better.
So they're lifting also.
And then what have I told you about restaurants and how weak they've been?
They've rallied some.
Why would they rally some?
Markets up, easier money.
That's all.
Now, what happens if yields start going up?
then we'll talk, but deals have done nothing but come down since yesterday.
But more than that, markets love easier money.
I remember David Tepper, the great hedge fund guy, and I didn't understand it at the time.
I didn't understand it at the time.
Upon Ben Bernanke announcing he was going to print money for the first time, he went on TV and just buy the hell out of everything.
I was like, what?
What?
And if you go back to the video, back in 08, he said just buy the hell out of everything,
they are inflating asset prices off of printing of money.
Oh, I understand it now.
Why do you think markets skyrocketed while we were still in COVID?
Because they started printing trillions.
And once we open up, we went eight crap to the upside.
And it's unfortunate because usually the easy money creates distortions like we're having in the housing market right now, amongst other things that are going on.
But for now, listen carefully.
The Dow New Yearly highs broke out.
The S&P has not.
The reason why the S&P is not is because a lot of technology in there, but it's right there.
It's right there.
The NASDAQ has not because of the technology.
Neither is the NASDAQ 100.
The Russell 2000 has broken out.
The Mid-Camp 400 has broken out.
I don't believe it's an all-time high yet, but it's quite close to the November
29th,
2024 week
getting there.
The XLF, the financials,
edging out of range,
the KBWB,
the NASDAQ Bank Index,
broke out.
The transports
broke out to a one-year high.
Not at the all-time highs yet,
broke out to a one-year high.
Do you know what breakouts
usually beget?
Higher prices. Nothing guaranteed. Up next. More on all this. This is the one only Investors Edge.
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It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working.
You're listening to.
Hey, this promises to be fun.
Investors Edge.
The last bastion of quality programming.
With Gary Coltbaum.
It doesn't get better than this.
So the best thing I can do for you is to describe and to repeat, the Dow is now broken out the highs, but I'm going to stop.
right there. I want to make sure you know that if in the Dow, if Goldman Sachs goes up 1%, in the Dow, if Goldman Sachs goes up 1%, in the Dow, if Goldman Sachs goes up 1%,
I want you to think about this carefully, the Dow will go up about 60 points. And I'm kind of to the nearest number.
if Goldman Sachs goes up 1%,
60 points in the Dow.
If Verizon goes up 1%
and it is in the Dow,
it'll move 2.5 points.
So Goldman is like 22 times
more important than Verizon.
So it's not hard to figure out
that, geez, Verizon is weak,
but does not matter.
You know what else is weak?
Nike, big bear market.
Doesn't matter.
Nike is about
4.
Goldman is about
14 times more
important than Nike.
How about Coke?
About 12 times
more important than Coke.
And those are
kind of weak stocks.
So in our eyes,
not a matter.
But when you have the Dow
up 600,
46 today, you have visa, finally waking out of a coma, got an upgrade, but also what are they
credit cards and easier money? That was up 20. Goldman was up 21. That's 41 points.
Right? Guess what? Those two are 266 down points today. Yet Goldman only moved about 2% in change,
though I will tell you
Visa did move about
5 and a half percent today
Visa's been dead money
not today
and of course MasterCard moving it also
so we just want to let you know
in the Dow
there is not a lot
not a bunch of
there are a bunch of stocks that are not acting well
but the high priced are
speaking of the Dow
and I wonder
Disney
Today announces they're investing
a billion dollars in open
AI in a deal to bring
characters like Mickey Mouse
there's something called
a SORA AI
video
video tool
I'd like to tell you I know what the hell
this means
but we have told you under no uncertain
terms
we think there's going to a lot
There's going to be a lot of movement.
A hell of a lot of movement.
Companies just do an AI for the sake of AI for stock price.
You must say, wait, but Disney's spending, but they're spending a billion dollars.
Come on, that's got to mean something.
I'm not saying it doesn't.
I'm saying when you got a market cap of 200 billion, spending a billion, you know.
And when you are a stock like Disney that is trading where it traded,
in March of 2015 and is still about 45% below 2021,
you're going to do anything and everything possible,
anything and everything possible to get your stock on the move.
And I got to tell you, I don't blame them.
And what's been the hot thing?
Artificial intelligence.
AI this and AI that and we have been telling you
we have been telling you
we expect a lot of
announcements whether they matter or not
on artificial intelligence
you know we haven't seen yet companies change in their names
just remember back in oh excuse me in 99
companies change their names
they added dot com to their name
in order to goose their stocks.
Mutual fund companies in order to market themselves better,
change their name and added the internet fund to it.
So I'm not accusing Disney of anything.
I'm just reporting to you what they're doing.
We'll let you decide.
I'll read more about that later.
Anyway, most important part of the equation.
Most important part.
big indices on the verge of break well the S&P close NASDAQ a little less away a little more away but the small in the mids and the financials and the transports all heading topside does it mean they work does it stick or does it fail you just remember breakouts can fail but typically when you get indices breaking out it's potentially pretty damn good news.
potentially. That's the story behind that. In the aftermarket broad calms up a little bit. That's good to see. Lulu Lemon. Guides below consensus, but the CEO is stepping down. I bet you the market likes that. The stock's up 12 bucks in the aftermarket. And of course, a $1 billion increase in stock repurchase. Costco reported only beat estimates by a little bit. The stock's been the best.
They are market.
It is down about $9.
In the aftermarket.
So three important names after the close.
The one I'm more interested in is Broadcom.
You had a weekday in the semiconductors, but that'll be pretty good for tomorrow.
I'll have to look over those numbers also.
$195, 1802.
I'm just looking at $1.90.
Yeah, earnings pretty good.
Number is good. No complaint. Tomorrow is another day. We just wanted to point out again, typically, when you get breakouts of the indices, it's usually meaningful. I hearken back, what was at 2013, I was in Hawaii over Christmas vacation, staying at the Hilton Hawaiian Village on Waikiki Beach, and then we were going.
over to Maui and the market, the big indices broke out and boy we had a good six, seven,
eight months after that. We'll see what's next from here. Got easier money and market reacting
well in spite of what people are telling everybody. Valuations are too high, too high, too high.
Well, they are. Valuations are definitely too high. But expensive markets can get more expensive
until something occurs.
Up next.
What else we be seeing?
Thanks to being here, I'm Gary.
This is the one only investors, Ed.
It's no use putting it off.
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Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day.
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and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer.
With over 30 million pairs sold,
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Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com
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What's in your wallet?
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You're listening to.
America is talking.
Investors Edge.
He's got to be pleased with that.
The crowd is just on his feet here.
He's a Cinderella boy.
With Gary Coltbaum.
It comes highly recommended.
You're going to feel better if you talk to him.
And welcome once again to Investors Edge.
I'm Gary Colbom, your host.
Thanks for being with us today.
I'll call you back.
That was my son.
What else?
I'm not so sure I need to add too much more on the markets.
Broadening out, areas for months I was saying avoid have gotten better.
There's still bare markets.
Hey, just because the cruise lines had a good day, I can tell you, I think they're bottomed here.
But that's for a recovery rally in a downtrend.
Same goes for restaurants.
The question is, can they turn into bull markets?
Of course they can.
But they have to go on proving themselves,
but I'm willing to say,
the economic part of the market,
really, very good,
two days.
Really, very good, two days
off of the central bank.
and I've been asked, did I watch them yesterday?
I don't even give a crap.
I got to pay attention to the market.
As you know, nothing personal.
They don't know what they're doing.
They can blab all they.
They have no clue.
Do you know our central bank used to predict
and they were wrong 99 out of 100 times?
So then they went, remember the line?
Data dependent.
We'll wait for information to come in.
We'll wait for information to come in and then.
So they don't know what the hell they're doing.
They created all kinds of inflation.
When it hit, they didn't see it coming.
Only when it got really bad did they go, holy crap.
And then they finally started playing catch up.
And they act like they know what they're doing.
And unfortunately, they're still playing God with the markets.
By him taking printed money and buying up short-term bonds now,
that's screwing with the markets and he should not be able to.
And I have to tell you, if I was the president of the United States, he would have no shot of doing that.
I'd stop his arse dead in his tracks.
I would do everything possible to stop him.
Because I'm a big believer.
Think about it.
Markets are supposed to be free.
The buying and selling of investors, traders, and speculators.
Not some numskull who's sitting behind the desk with a computer saying,
I think I'm going to print some money and buy bonds.
He's not taking any risk with his own money.
By the way, do you know they've lost hundreds of millions of dollars in their bond buying through the years?
Or is in the billions?
But markets love it.
Now, the next question I've been getting because, as you know, the media has been all,
over the president on his economic policies.
And I don't know if you've seen, but his poll numbers on the economy suck.
His poll numbers are really bad.
And, you know, I've never been a big believer in these polls.
They've gotten wrong so often.
But it's so noisy, I wanted to bring it up.
Because, you know, my thoughts on his economic policies.
I think the tariffs suck.
I think they're stupid.
I think they're horrible.
The talk well, they're good for negotiating.
How did that go for the farmers?
The negotiations with China on it had the farmers dead.
And the president taking 12 billion of our tax dollars to pay them off.
You like that?
All you free market capitalists, you like that?
but I love that he extended the tax cuts.
I don't mind the no tax on tips,
though I'm not thrilled,
less people paying less,
but it's picking and choosing.
I'm not a big fan of that.
Oh, you, but not you.
It was like Biden,
there were certain people that got relief on student loans,
but others did not.
So I'm not really a big fan of that,
But I guess that's okay.
And I have nothing but respect for those people working on tips.
But there's another issue behind that.
Are they only going to want tips going forward?
Hey, Mr. Manager, don't pay me a salary.
Let's call it tips.
I wonder if a bunch of that's going to go on.
So we love the extending the tax cuts.
We love capitalist part, but we hate him taking positions in
companies. We hate him picking
winners and losers. We hate
him. Hey, I'm going to take
away your tariff if you do this.
What the hell is that?
That's not free market
capitalism. That is
control
freakism, the things we complain about
all the time.
I don't want that.
Yet we're getting it.
Shouldn't be.
Tim Cook should not be
able to go to the Whitehouse
and say, hey, we're going to do this.
Will you get rid of the tariffs?
And he did.
I'm sorry.
That sucks.
And do you know why it sucks?
Wait to Gavin Newsom is the next president.
If you're not complaining now, you better not complain then if he wins.
We just want them to get out of the way.
That's all we want.
So there are a lot of things I like.
There's a bunch I don't.
we don't like him calling for 1% Fed funds
we think that's a problem also
we think that's a problem also
we don't want
too much of that
why you want 9% inflation again
oh you'll get it
oh I promise you you'll get it
and there's some other things we're not thrilled with
but the others
the other things are on the minor side
I don't think his son should get tens of billions of dollars for startup companies
from the taxpayer.
Oh, did you know that?
Oh, just want to make sure you knew that.
I don't think that should be.
If we complained about Biden's family,
got to complain about Trump's family.
Oh, but don't they do this for...
No, no, no, no.
Don't tell me they do this for a living.
You create a startup in crypto and then get...
No, no go. We just want fair, and you should too. We just want fair and you should too. Of course, if you are in that realm of complete love of celebrity and politicians, you're going to curse me out, but we just want fair. And we got to call out unfair. And we got to call out good, great and bad.
I think the president does too much and is involved too much and I think it's going to cost too much ultimately
why because free markets work so well interference does not free markets work so well
interference does not.
And I would say that whether it was Republican, Democrat, or a Whig Party.
And that's a little bit of answering your questions on what the heck's going on.
By the way, another question I get all the time is about artificial intelligence,
and I'm still trying to figure out how any of these companies are ultimately going to make money on their spend.
And speaking of that, Oracle did finish down $24 today, though it,
One time today was down 36, but deep into a bare market right now.
And all I kept reading is they're worried about the debt and whether they're going to come through with all the, you know, they're saying they have all these back orders and whether that's going to occur or not.
We'll see.
Just let you know Oracle is in a bare market.
It's an avoid right now.
though they did
a little bit better with it
at the close today
and yeah I am
surprised as all heck
up next
this that and the other thing
this is the one only investors edge
it's no use putting it off
the best time for an underwear refresh is now
Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect
fit that stays put all day
there's zero shape thanks to four times more
stretch than competing brands
and their innovative horizontal quick draw fly is a game changer.
With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you.
Don't settle for less.
Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort.
That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort.
Tommy John. Comfort perfected.
This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card.
Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect,
like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit.
for less than you expect.
Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase,
bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination.
Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.
The Capital One Venture X card.
What's in your wallet?
Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change.
See Capital One.com for details.
This episode is brought to you by Spreker.
The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain.
Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need.
explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like,
Sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio.
If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster.
The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple.
You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen.
Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing.
Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads,
meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more my...
microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to
yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. You're listening to.
What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go.
Action! In the Gester's Edge, with Gary Culper. Okay. In case you don't know, we are pretty
big believers in something called the front cover indicator. What the hell is that? What is the
front cover indicator? When mainstream media start reporting things from the market, it's usually
close to the end of a move. Back in 2008, we bottomed in,
In 2009, I believe it was March, towards the end of 2008, when I was so scared, I went to my bank and took out $25,000 in cash to put in a safe.
That's how worried I was.
But back then, the mainstream media was coming out in droves, pretty much reporting on the end of the world.
the end of a financial system.
And by the way, I couldn't blame them.
You do know Bear Stearns went out of business.
Lehman Brothers went out of business.
Merrill Lynch went out of business.
Countrywide financial.
Was it Wachovia also?
Amongst others.
And others would have gone out of business, but they ended up being saved.
But I can tell you,
towards the end it got ferocious and vicious.
End of the world type scenarios.
The reporting.
And guess what happened in March of 2009?
We bottomed and never looked back with a little help from the taxpayer, of course,
and nothing happened to the frauds.
Back in late 99, front covers of magazines.
had John Chambers of Cisco, man of the year.
The talk was back then the internet technology,
and the NASDAQ dropped 80%.
And what I mean it was crazy, it was crazy.
It was crazy.
Put this in your file manager.
The Time magazine, 2,000,
25 person of the year.
Time Magazine, I think it's a pamphlet now, by the way, it's so small.
But they are not in the business world.
It's a magazine reports the news.
You know, politics, foreign affairs.
The Time Magazine, 2025 person of the year,
the architects of artificial intelligence.
That's going to be on the front cover.
I believe it's out today, maybe, announced today.
Just put it in your file manager as part of
your handsome and buffed host front cover indicator.
That front and center now, artificial intelligence.
Now, may mean nothing.
Put it in your file manager.
In case you don't know, the stocks have come on strong recently.
They were really in trouble into the Nvidia reversal day, but have come on again.
The electronic manufacturers, semiconductors, data storage types, some at new highs today.
All is well.
all is okay
just put that
in your file manager
we'll revisit it
if need be
and hopefully
we won't have to
revisit it
but that is a glaring
and I mean
glaring
front cover indicator
and again all that means
is that
very often
when something like this occurs,
you're nearing an end of a move.
Nearing an end of a move.
Just letting you know.
What else?
I got to tell you,
I watched an interview with Taylor Swift.
You don't mind me bringing this up, right?
I dig this woman.
Not only everywhere she went,
the economy soared,
because of how many people visited all the cities.
And I believe she's a billionaire, right?
I watched an interview with her.
She just seems like she has $10 in the bank.
Seriously.
Down to earth?
I just wanted to bring that up because I love seeing something like that.
I know it doesn't mean that much has nothing to do with the market,
but I got to tell you, I love seeing something like this.
that. Impressed the living hell out of me. Good to see. Good to see. On a final note,
did you see the Miami mayor election? Did I mention this yesterday? I don't think I did.
A Democrat won the mayor election for the first time Miami in 30 years. Trump won Miami.
wake up call for the Republicans.
If Trump thinks he can call women piggy
and people with the R word,
I don't even think I can say that word anymore,
and he's going to win votes,
I got some Everglades land.
Somebody's going to need to talk to him, ladies and gentlemen,
or you're going to have Hakeem Jeffries,
the Speaker of the House.
Now we're done.
You have a great evening, drive carefully.
When you get home, do like we do quite simple.
make sure you hug your family make sure you hug your children they will feel better you'll feel
better i promise they will be well until tomorrow another good day hopefully by bye this has been
investors edge with gary cult bomb on biz talk to listen to past episodes or to get in contact with
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