Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Broad Based.

Episode Date: July 19, 2022

More Info At: http://garykaltbaum.comMore

At CVS, it matters that we're not just in your community, but that we're part of it. It matters that we're here for you when you need us, day or night, and we want everyone to feel welcomed and rewarded. It matters that CVS is here to fill your prescriptions and here to fill your craving for a tasty and, yeah, healthy snack. At CBS, we're proud to serve your community, because we believe where you get your medicine matters. So visit us at cbs.com, or just come by store we can't wait to meet you store hours vary by location investors edge with gary coltbaum straight talk about you and your money now from the biz talk studios here is gary cult bomb and welcome once again to investors edge i'm gary colpom your host day thanks for being with us today

glad you here ladies and gentlemen happy that you are listening it is uh july 19th 2022. Hope you're having a good day. And let me start out for the record. Yesterday, I've got a bunch of emails today from people saying, wow, you're good. I'm like, what did I do? It seems that yesterday on this show, after we had a 600 point reversal to the downside, I said on this show yesterday, and I didn't even remember saying it, that, oh, we'll just be up 500 points tomorrow. The Dow is up 754 points today. But for the record, and I'd love to take credit.

You know, hey, we all love to take credit, right? I was being sarcastic. It was sarcasm. I was saying it based on how crazy the markets can be. Up, 600 point reversal today, up 500 point. So whatever. Anyway, the good news is the Dow's up 754 today, and we do have a lot to say, and we hope you listen very carefully. We don't know if we can really convey it in the time allotted, and we're going to do that on our webcast tonight.

And again, we don't market ourselves at all. You know that, right? but in these markets, we've been telling you if you're doing it yourself or you don't do it yourself and you want to really get a good feel for markets, we do these webcasts for our, we call them members, VIPs, our peeps. And you can get one month free at Convictionleaders.com or at garyk.com, just press the button. because today is one of those important days. And frankly, we've been kind of sort of conveying it for a bunch of weeks on how the market's holding the lows, but there's no leadership.

Some things have come off the lows, but there's no leadership. Need to see follow through, but there's no leadership. Today we may have got what we call that important follow-through and which again, we'll try to convey it in the best way possible for those that don't look at what we do but just listen to what we say. You know, there's people out there say, oh, we're bullish, we're bearish, we're bearish, they're bullish, blah, blah, blah. At the end of the year, the Dow is going to be so-and-so. Our job is to guide you and let you know we're the men.

main trends are both up and down, but also is anything changing. And the only way things change is by changing. Duh. And what we mean by that is, just at the outset, we measure price and what order to go higher in price, you have to go higher. Duh, in order to go lower, you have to go lower. Double, duh. Now, we don't say that with sarcasm. We actually mean it. And what we have always been able to do, and we've been doing this quite a while

on these radio shows slash podcast now, is walk you through Bull and Bear markets in order to be in a bull market. Let me take that back. In order to be in an up trending market, you've got to be in an uptrend. And what price does is make definable moves that we can plot. And it's very simple. Are the stair steps going up or are they going down? And you can just draw stair steps on a piece of paper. Imagine if that's price. And all we know is since last year, starting with the bubbles popping, leading to the growth stocks, leading to everything else, the stair steps have been going down and down and down and down. A couple of times in the bare market. We had what we called counter-tren rallies, but the stair steps never really went up.

Markets just rebounded from what we call very stretched, extended moves to the downside. And all will get me a stair step up. Now, of course, individual stocks have done that. We have outlined for you, stocks that have stair stepped up in the face of a declining market, meaning they're showing what we call relative strength versus the market. But the market itself, nah. We've mentioned the Chinese stocks starting to do it and did it, and then they tuck their head in like frightened turtles, but still what we call okay.

shape right now. We've mentioned to you about some biotechs that have started the stair step up. And that doesn't mean it's going to continue with just identifying, hey, look, what we want to see is the major averages, the major indices do that. Why? Because that carries a lot. lot of stocks. The S&P 500 is 500 stocks. The NASDAQ 100 is 100. The Russell 2000, duh, is 2000. And just because you finally make that first stair step up doesn't mean it's going to hold. It's got a stick. And then build another stair step to go higher. and another stair step to go higher. That's all we're looking for.

And as we've said to you, all this talk about how we need capitulation, and we need a washout. And we've been trying to tell you that bottoms are a process. It takes time. So yesterday we had this real miserable reversal. And today the market forgot it. And may I state for the record, there was no big news. There was no outstanding news.

The market just decided to make a good move today. And we're just letting you know some areas moved above. At the close today, some levels that we're going to let you know about. But just remember, and we're conveying this the best way we know how. They have to stick, meaning they move above, they stick, and then move above another area, and they stick. That's what bull moves are made of. Constant more and more stair steps to the upside versus what we have seen since really last November.

Even though so many other names and stocks were breaking down way in advance of November, and that helped us call the tops. And then all heck broke loose. Now, we also have to state, for the record, we're in the midst of huge earnings season. And I can tell you, IBM finished down seven and change today. Johnson and Johnson finished down two and a half on earnings. And there's a ton more earnings to come out.

But we are letting you know our thought process is that, These recent lows of the last, and we've been saying to you, five to nine weeks, depending on which index, today's action moved away from those lows, and more than likely, notice those three words, more than likely, solidified those lows, which means to us those lows are not getting taken out anytime soon. Up next, we'll continue, get more specific, and whatever else. Thank you for being there. Oh, and we'll be complaining.

I'm Gary. This is the one only Investors Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals.

Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-22-55-9. That's 888-4-2-2-5-5-9. That's 888-4-2-2-5-5-9. Investment Advisory Services offered through call-bomb capital management. Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions

you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomachache every time that I eat. And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just have a stomachache every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with.

So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeartRadio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. Cash flow crunch. OnDec's small business line of credit

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Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. So, I think we started the conveyance of what we're trying to say so far pretty decently. the market wrap is brought to you by Investment Dash Models.com That's Jim Roarbeck, one of the great market timers. No gray areas with demand you're either in or out of the market.

With his proprietary indicators, go check it out. Investment dash models.com. So Dow up 754, just gapped up out of the get-go and just kept moving. S&P 1053. Nasdaq 100, 371. The semiconductors up 123. Of course, as we've told you, if the semiconductors aren't moving, market's not going to move. And some of the big cap crap that has been so bad had a good day today.

And just overall. Just overall. Just overall. So, number one, today's action says to me that the lows we have seen, and I use on the NASDAQ 11,000. even though for like three or four days you broke 11 you can see you can really draw a line going back to May 12th at around 11,000 as lows even though you went to 10 565 for a day we think that 11,000 is not going to be broken to the downside anytime soon simple as that why because as we scan just too many things are starting what we call turning up like the indices or emerging a little bit off them lows. The onus will be on the bears. And what do we mean by that? Well, listen carefully. We called a low on March 16th. And I believe we said that day the same thing. The onus will be on

bears to show up and sell stock distribute stock that's what we said the market rallied up for about another eight days sat around for four days and then on April 6th only about not even three weeks later we said that's it so until we again say that's it or the wall as hit or party over or rally is ended you catch in the drift so we'll start with the NASDAQ the NASDAQ of about eight days ago was 11689 the high of the high of June 27 was 1167 you finished at 11713 which is not exactly a big move above those levels. So we'll need to see more. But we think we're getting in motion here. The S&P 500? Well, you need to take out 3946. You're still at not 3936, but you did edge

above that declining 50-day moving average, which is good news. and suspect we could get there. But again, the most important point I want to make is we think them lows have been solidified for now. For now. And maybe it is the lows. Maybe the worst is over. Maybe that's it for the bare market.

We'll see. We'll see. The Dow, the high, of 628 was 31-885. You're at 31827. You're close. But you also got a little bit back above the 50-day moving average. The Russell 2000 need to get above 1792.58.

I can't find it just yet. Something wrong with my screen. Let me just say I'll revert to the IWM, which measures the Russell. You're right there. The Sox, the all-important semiconductor index, you moved above the 2758. So on the verge or at the verge of that first step up off of a bare market low. And then you look at other areas, the XLF, which is the big financials, very close. By the way, all at bare market.

market lows last Thursday, as well as all other areas that I have scanned so far. Keep in mind there's hardly any new yearly highs. Hardly. There's hardly any leadership. Everything is just stuff coming off, different levels of bare markets. But today was a damn good day. and guess what we'll see what tomorrow brings can we pull back

of course we can back and fill a little bit but today was of note and we will keep advising as we move forward the three words change of complexion have serious potential here as we're in the midst of earning and just by note Netflix reported after the close

missed earnings by a mile sales estimates oh they missed that too the stock is up in the aftermarket 8% keep in mind the stock at a highest 701

it's a 216 in the aftermarket make that 217 interesting huh we'll explain that part 2 much more I'm Gary this is the one only investors edge. Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions

you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like, I get a stomach ache every time that I eat. And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just have a stomachache every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy.

And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script,

a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeartRadio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion,

our programs are designed for people who never see. stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU. APU. APUS.edu. OnDEC is built to back small businesses like yours. Whether you're buying equipment, expanding your team, or bridging cash flow gaps, OnDex loans up to $400,000 help make it happen fast. Rated A-plus by the Better Business Bureau and earning thousands of five-star trust pilot reviews. OnDec delivers funding you can count on. Apply in minutes at on-deck.com, depending on certain Own attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDec or Celtic Bank. OnDec does not lend in North Dakota.

All loans and amounts subject to lender approval. We're listening to. America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb.

It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. I take something back. On Netflix, beat by a little bit on earnings. Their guidance. was much lower than expected. Now, subscribers, they lost a bunch of subscribers. 970,000, but I guess expectation was for 2 million.

So what Netflix did, a lot of companies do. They set expectations very low, very, very low and beat them, even though what they came out with was not very good. That's Netflix. Bet and expected net ads and decent guidance boosting stock. See, that's the BS headline. Decent quarter three guidance boosting stock. No.

The guidance sucked, but the market's better now. So the market forgives the second. Now, a few things. We just want you to remember, bare markets, you get really good rallies. Remember how we wind and complain to you? It's amazing. The longest rally in this bare market has last 11 days. Where's the one that lasts two months? Three months. And get some steam before croaking. We'll see if this one's part of that. And of course, tons of earnings to come. What else did I notice today that I thought was good news?

Well, Goldman Sachs was up like 17 or 18 yesterday and then reversed a lot of it because how bad the market was was up 16 today. Accumulation on crappy numbers. The financials had a good day that they always want to see that. And the semiconductors had a good day. Remember what we tell you about the semis. BlackRock earnings down 30, revenues down six was up 30 bucks today. What? What?

Well, the reason why a black rock would go up. because it benefits from a stronger market. So these things tend to feed on itself. So just change a complexion. But a few of these indices on the verge need to see the move. The semis though broke above. And we need to, while we did preliminary scans

and were impressed, we'll got more to do. The transports. That's important, right? Right? I can tell you, just getting the figure right at the highs of three weeks ago, and that also back above the 50-day move and average. And you know how badly we've been complaining about the transport stocks. Now remember, these moves are off of bare market lows.

we want you to remember that we have no idea how long it lasts or how far it goes just like we had no idea Peloton would drop 90 some odd percent we just know when things are going into a downtrend

complexion change today let's see what else comes of it notice I didn't mention the word inflation deflation jobs Biden Trump unemployment

interest rates, oil, natural gas. Notice I didn't mention any of that. Why? We pay attention to the market. That's why. Everything else is noise. Remember, the perma bulls will now say, told you so. Or we remain bullish.

Got to think long term. Even though they got their arses whipped. The perma bears are going to say, this is not real. It's a mirage. It's going to come right back down. They both sides are no use to us because why? We do something they don't know and think does not you are not able. I saw a guy on TV today that say no one is able to time the market. cool we love people like that you think they have spent a minute trying to learn the things we do no do you know why because it's intensive it's a lot of hours it's a lot of time it's a lot of effort it's a lot of sweat it's a lot of toil a lot tougher than saying my target for the Dow at the end of the year is 36,200

42 because we estimate earnings are going to be so-and-so. That's easy. Anybody can do that BS. So very good day today. Can't wait to scan. Now, I'm not going to be sarcastic and say we'll probably drop 500 tomorrow. Okay, I will. Probably drop 500 tomorrow.

Now, that's sarcasm. Again, I freely admit it. I'd people thanking me or congratulating me. It was pure sarcasm yesterday. and we said, that'll probably be up 500 tomorrow. We had no clue what the market would do today. And the fact of the matter is, yesterday was an ugly, ugly finish. Ugly.

We'll see what tomorrow brings. That's our take. Oh, we were asked about the crypto. Well, the crypto is rallying too. Fair enough. Not much was red today. Have to mention that also. Not much was red.

early on a bunch of higher beta names were red and some still finish red today but in the minority oil prices up a little bit oil stocks are up they're just bouncing and the broad market today you know what we mean by a broad market mostly everything was up mostly again I've yet to do my scanning. Now notice we being one of the big bears on Wall Street. Notice. Notice. While most other bears will stay bearish no matter what. Determined to be right. And that's okay. We pay attention to the market. And we're saying all this knowing we're in the midst of earning season. And we will promise you, some names are going to crack badly to the downside. No doubt. That's how it works. And lastly, on another note, everybody who emailed us on us blasting the Pelosi family and any other

politician who pulls that crap, every email agreed with us, and we got a lot. They're just a a bunch of corrupt elitist scum in both sides of the aisle. And that includes the Fedheads that also traded on insider information. And that includes Jay Powell, who got an ethics watchdog to come out and say, didn't think he did anything wrong. You're damn straight he did wrong. He traded on his own inside information. And he should have been fired on it.

But welcome to Washington. where crimes are meaningless. Ethics, what's that? That's all. And these are the same people that have brought us to $30 trillion of debt. That's $30 trillion of money they were never supposed to spend. And we continue to let them get away with it. Up next. Oh, it's Joe Biden time. I'll explain. This is the one only investor's edge.

Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not except as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomachache every time that I eat. And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just, I have a stomach ache every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy.

And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can probably identify. something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so

much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeart Radio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey.

Learn more at APU.APUS.edu. Cash flow crunch? On-Dex small business line of credit gives your business immediate access to funds up to $200,000 right when you need it. Cover seasonal dips, manage payroll, restock inventory, or tackle unexpected expenses without missing a beat. With flexible draws, transparent pricing, and control over repayment, get funded quickly and confidently. Apply today at on deck.com.

Funds could be available as soon as tomorrow. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by On Deck or Celtic Bank. On Deck does not lend in North Dakota, all loans an amount subject to lender approval. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action!

In the Gester's Edge. With Gary Kaltba. So, bow tie. Very simple. Back in March when we thought a near-term low was put in, we said the same words that we said to you today. The market rallied decently for another one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine days. Sat around for four and then topped.

On the day of the top, we came back and said, that's it. it's over. So no matter what we tell you today, we will let you know when we think whatever rally that comes of that ends. And we don't know whether it ends in nine days, two months, the bare market low, which I'm not sure I give a lot of odds to. But we're open to any and all, especially when you're dealing with central banks that have printed $30 trillion of money. And I think back then on that day, the NASDAQ rallied from the end. It was a day off the lows, 13, 4 to 14, about 9% before it topped. That's how we're treating this with a little bit what I call better.

than March. Why? Back in March, you only had a couple of weeks of testing and retesting lows. This time, the NASDAQ again, I go back as far as testing and retesting to May 12th, two months, with a little bit of undercut a couple of days. With the Dow, I go back to, you know, know I can say May 20th, the low was June 17th. But I'm going to call the Dow at around 30,400, 30,500, even though we had 296. Why don't I use 296? Which I probably should. It was there for a day or two.

But either way, I think the testing or retesting for weeks with an S. the S&P 500 kind of sort of the same. It just feels better this time than March, I think. So again, we're going to treat it this way. We'll let you know we think it's over. That's how we're going to treat it. But I kind of sort of have seen enough, I think, and we'll let you know if anything changes.

and let me be repetitive or repetitious, whichever word matters. We're an earning season. I have no clue which company is going to cough one up or which one's going to gap up on whatever news. Netflix to me looks like crappy numbers. It's up 7% now in the aftermarket at 215, down from 700. Just remember that. Joe Biden, you know how they called, Trump a fascist for four years. What else they call him a dictator? Hitler, Mussolini, Stalin.

Every name in the book they called him. But I want to talk about them calling him a dictator and a fascist. You know what those words mean? That means you're a control freak. Interesting how Trump lowered taxes, the opposite of control freak. Trump loosened regulation. the opposite of control freak. And as you know, I can't stand them. There's nothing I like about Donald Trump. But I give them credit, what credit is due, just like everybody else. There's always shades of gray.

Joe Biden looks like we're hearing is going to declare a climate emergency. What this will do is unlock broad powers to fight climate change. unlock broad powers by declaring a climate emergency from a guy who's been in Washington for a good 50 years when they used to call it global cooling and then it warmed so they changed it to global warming and then it cooled so they came up with the words climate change

in order to be right no matter what and when we've had cold winters they say oh it's climate change and when we've had hot summers they call it climate change. change and now they're using a hot summer and there's a hot summer going on in Europe too it's now an emergency to unlock his broad powers so who's the dictator who's the control freak the nerve of these people to think they can make it cooler in the summer and hotter in the winter the nerve of these people that think they can control the weather. Oh, that's right, they don't think they can. Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, children of all ages, Republican, Democrat, independent, Whig Party, we don't

care who you are. Watch your wallets. A control freak that is voted for 29.5 of our 30 trillion of debt is coming for it. He's coming for you. All on this nine, that we can control the climate. I have news for you. We can't. The only thing we can do is do better for pollution. And I have news for you. We all are.

Businesses are. Companies are. The markets are taken care of it. But no, in steps, the control freakism of Joe Biden and Washington, D.C. Watch out. This one may be a biggie. We ain't kidding.

Have a great evening. Drive carefully. When you get home, do like we do. Quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise.

And let's fingers crossed. Does that even work? That maybe this is the start of something good in the markets. Again, day by day, sector by sector, stock by stock. Have a great one, everybody. Same time tomorrow. Bye-bye.

This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. Struggling to see up close, make it visible with Viz.

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