Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - BROAD MARKET [12.03.2025]

Episode Date: December 3, 2025

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That's Tommyjohn.com, code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colbom, your host. A thanks for being with us today.

Glad you're here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening. It's Wednesday, December 3rd, 2025. Hope you're having a good day. Hey, ladies and gentlemen. In case you don't know, this is serious talk on everything that affects you. We'll do the markets, the economy, jobs, your job, your industry, taxes, deficit spending, scam, shams, corruption, overpromising and under-delivering, and a lot else. But first, if you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com.

We'll also post on our X feed. And if you don't follow us on X, you should. And if you like to email us, just be nice. We'll also post it on our other podcast apps as well as the Biz TV YouTube channel. Ladies and gentlemen, if I had a dollar for every time I get the question, do you think we're in a bubble? So what we're going to do to start off the show is talk about bubbles. Because as you know, we have told you that we have studied past bubbles. There's a great book called Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds.

It's a big book, but you should go read it if you have an interest. So let me be as blunt as possible, to the point as possible, on the question of, are we in bubbles? Number one, well, we've already pointed a bunch out to you that have already popped the first time. We had told you for weeks, if not months, the bubbles in quantum computers, drones, robotaxis, space, nuclear. The latest was rare earth. So bubbles, and they've popped the first time. Notice the words, the first time. They certainly can ram them again because they have help.

And it's unfortunate help from this administration. That is now interfering, and I use the word interfering, in industry like we have never seen, taking position in companies. Unfortunately, they caused the big quick bubble in the rare earth stocks that went straight up, straight down, 50, 60, 70% drops. And this is not a rib on them. I think they mean well, do their best. But they started promoting no sales rare earth stocks.

One of them announced, oh, we have talked to the. president and we're cutting deals that never came to fruition. I'm surprised there hasn't been lawsuits. So those areas have blown up, but I cannot tell you they won't ramp again because you don't know how long something lasts. And every day, nuclear, quantum, robotaxies, robots, drones, this and that. And we know just by adding one plus one to get two, there's no 50 companies that are going to do robotaxies, yet there's so many out there.

If you recall, when all the SPACs a few years back all announced that they were doing electric vehicles, we laughed at them. And of course, one of them went to jail. And of course, the president just pardoned them. A bunch of them have shut down because it's not easy to do car companies. So that's number one as far as the bubbles are concerned. Where else have we seen the bubbles?

Well, we're still on Trump. It nauseates me that they came out with the Melania and the Trump coin, both down in the 90s. And unfortunately, some insiders made off with billions of dollars. By the way, we're not making that up. they came out with it there was massive selling going on from insiders will never know who they are they're not going to investigate themselves so those things the meme coins and we already know about the nfts from years ago but what about the crypto well to a certain extent

there are some crypto out there that should not be trading. The Doge coin was started as a joke. Things like that. Where it ends up, I don't know. Bitcoin, listen, I never thought it would go to $100,000. Is that a bubble? Well, the last bare market dropped at 75%, but it came back. So not so sure, which takes me to the number one question.

artificial intelligence. Gary, what do you think? Well, we're very careful with our words here. So I never guarantee. I never promise. But I state belief. And my answer is, of course it's a bubble. Of course it is.

But on whom and where and how long is another story? Here is my thoughts on it. Let's start with Oracle. They announced gargantuan numbers and the stock still went from 345 down to a recent low, well, closed at 197, it's 207 now, which takes me to the part of the bubble. There is now massive amounts of debt being foisted upon the public to pay for all this. But you know what you're paying for? Projections.

When I hear somebody come out and say $100 billion by 2030, well, I say, I don't know what I'm meeting for dinner tonight. So I think number one, the number one bubble is, they're projections. They don't know. They really don't know. The other bubble, as I said to you, the CEO of OpenA. was asked a simple question. How are you supposed to commit to $1.2 trillion in whatever when you have $10 billion? And the guy got mad and said, well, just go sell your stock.

It was asked by an investor. That worries the hell out of me. Then there's the circular financing. Oh, I'm an investor, $100 billion in you, just buy my stuff. For me, it just reminds me. It just reminds me of everything I've seen in the past that blows up to a certain extent. Now, do I think there's a pets.com? There's probably one or two in there.

Do I think Nvidia is going to be here forever? Hell yeah. Oracle, hell year. These companies aren't going anywhere. But I do believe a lot of it is being based on numbers that are promised going out a few years. And I got news for you. They don't know. but we're supposed to believe them.

Why? Because they're very successful people. They're very wealthy people. They've done magnificent things. But I repeat, the projections are insane. And just today, and I don't know if this is a big deal or not, but just today Microsoft dropped $11. Okay, and the stock's been weak. supposed AI beneficiary.

What came out today from a outfit called The Information, it's a big outfit on technology, Microsoft is lowering AI software growth targets. The first title they came out with is lowering software sales quotas, but later in the day they changed it to lowering AI software growth targets. Huh. Bubbles are also priced not just for perfection, for unbelievable perfection. So any chink in the armor, so we'll see. But here's the key on bubbles. They can last a long time and you can miss a hell of a lot of gains if you sell too soon. And when I say bubbles, I'm not talking AMC theater that dropped 99%.

I'm not talking GameStop. There's real companies here. I'm talking valuation and crazy talk. Up next, we'll put a bow tie on it and lots else to talk about. I'm Gary. This is the one only Investors Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people.

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With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. So, that's my take. Do I have any guesses? I think all that you're seeing last a good long while from here. That's what I think. I think it can last another year.

Who knows? But I am the big belief that these numbers, there's just no way. There's no way. And there's also the part, do you know when somebody says they can invest? And by the way, there's been talk of $100 billion, $50 billion. Nobody invests $100 billion. if they don't think they're going to get back 1001, I see no way that anybody's going to make that kind of money off of these investments. Thus, if I start reading a lot of Microsofts,

and I'm just telling you what's been stated, Microsoft is lowering AI software growth targets. It didn't affect anything today. Semiconductor is another strong today. including the equipment guys, which tells you a lot, we'll keep you informed. But I think in a few years we're going to look back and say, holy crap, that's my take. And I know all the talk. Let me tell you some of the talk that's going on. Artificial intelligence is going to enable drug companies to get drugs out

70% quicker than normal. They'll be able to tell cancer, way before they used to. I'm not arguing any of that. I hope it does. My families have been touched by cancer. If they can do better on screening and things like that, God bless them. I love that.

But then it gets back to return on investment. We'll keep you informed. We'll stay on top of it. Do you know how we'll know? If the end is near, the stocks will top out, break down, and not go back. Simple as that. And we'll see how it plays out. The last part of the bubble is pretty simplistic.

Valuations are up there in the trees. In the trees. I'm pretty sure you're paying $2 for a lot of $1 bills right now in some names, and I don't know which ones yet. I don't. And just in the past six months, Google was supposed to be crap. Remember that? And now Google's the leader.

They call it alphabet. I don't know why they changed the name. So that's a little bit on the bubble front. But there are other things. You know, I had the honor to be on TV with Kevin O'Leary, what they call him, Mr. Wonderful from Shark Tank. and he came on and showed us baseball cards or were they basketball cards, I don't remember, but they were selling for six million bucks. And I asked them specifically, him and his dealer guy, do you ever worry that the bubble's going to pop?

And they said, we don't think there's a bubble. I go, but you just said that that was worth a million bucks just two years ago, it's now six million. Do you think that's going to keep going? And they said yes. And I'm thinking to myself, it's a baseball card. And don't get me wrong. They've done nothing but go up. But you know what's been going down in the last year?

Have you noticed the high-priced watches? I've been reading that. They went insane to the upside. And they're getting crushed. You know what else? I didn't even know this. Sneakers! I just started reading about it about a week ago.

There's been a gargantuan bull market in sneakers. I have a Pokemon card I think is worth 10 grand. It's a card. We'll see. But leave no doubt. There's no argument. There's some art out there, which, I mean, I can't believe what some of the art's going for. Do you know, was it about two years ago?

And there's a picture of it. Some guy sold an invisible store. sculpture for 15 grand. I'm not making it up. Do you know what that means? There was nothing there. Another guy sold a banana that was put on a wall

and sold for like crap loads. I don't remember what the number was. So, again, we'll be on watch because the numbers that are being bandied about on artificial intelligence or I'm just beyond the beyond. And we'll be glad to be wrong, but we've studied history.

Go study the tulip bulbs. Go study them. Go backwards. Go get the book. Extraordinary popular delusions in the madness of crowds, and you'll see what I'm talking about. And I'm seeing it in a bunch of forms right now. We've already seen it in some of these areas I've told you, which may or may not get going again. Today, Tesla, which has been somewhat dormant, was up 17 bucks.

Do you know why? The administration is going to talk about robotics now. And of course, Tesla is a leader in those robots. So we'll see. We'll keep you informed. It's a very good question on where this is going to go. Just always think about am I paying $2 for a $1 bill? Always think of that and give yourself a good honest answer.

But that all said, as we segue to today, another good broad market day. That was up 408, but the S&P only up 20. Why? Because of the technology waiting. NASDAQ only up 40, NASDAQ 100 only up 50, but the Russell 2000 was strong broad market. And as we tell you, the Russell 2000 is laden with a lot of regional banks and regionals had a good day. And big banks, what have we been telling you about them? They've been sitting nice and tight near the highs.

Well, they were breaking out left and right today, the big banks. And the semiconductors had another good day up 131. And what do we tell you about the overall market? all the time if the semiconductors and financials are doing fine there is no chance of bare markets except for individual areas up next what about the rest of the areas this is the one only investors edge guys it's no use putting it off the best time for an underwear refresh is now Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day there's zero chafe thanks to four times more stretch than

competing brands and their innovative horizontal quick draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with code comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.

The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like,

Sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com.

Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. We're listening to. America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb.

It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. Yeah, yeah, yeah. So, not only strong day for big banks, but other findings. They woke up some things that have been weak like Blackstone, Black Rock. Other those private equity companies better. We already mentioned the semis. You know it was strong today.

The housing related. Ten year yield dropped to 4.057 today. So housing related better today. You know what else was strong today? The transports. The transports broke above range today. The IYT that looks a little. different than the transports itself because of the makeup. IYT broke above, we'll call it 7370 today,

which it basically hit six times since January and broke above it today. That's your rails, truckers, airlines and stuff like that. So transports. And as we had told you for a long time, avoid, not anymore. And then the oils. Very good day for the oils, even though oil prices were not up that big. And the Oil Services ETF, which is the OIH, broke above range today. Round 298. The XOP, which is the exploration and production, has not as of yet, needs to get above 139. And the XLE, which is the big oil, needs to get above 93.

It's 91.83. But better tone for the oils. Steel stocks. metals in mining steel copper aluminum strong today it helps that the dollars acting like the south end of a northbound

jackass but that's because we're getting easy money Trump going forward Powell stopped the quantitative tightening so he's easing looks like he's lowering rates next week

and then they're going to put in Kevin Hassett who by the way don't know him, nothing personal. You might as well put two strings on his shoulders because Trump's going to run him to convince everybody at the Fed, we're going to lower rates. Or you're fired.

That's how it goes. And that's what really, I think, is fuel in the market right now. Because I got to tell you, the job market sucks. I know they're going to come out with a strong GDP number, but take out government spending ain't so strong. You have to remember, our government is spending four times as much as they used to 25 years ago. And for what? You getting anything out of it? They're sure taking out a lot from you, but I digress.

Very good day. Advanced decline strong. Three to one to the better. Almost on both indices that we follow. even look at the American that much. It's so small. New highs picked up today. Good to see. But as I started out by saying, big banks breaking out and semiconductor strong with a few breaking out, ain't nothing bad going to happen overall. I can promise you that. There'll be weakness. They'll be bare markets. They'll be bearish names. They'll be bearish sectors. But an overall market, hell no. And now, if the big indices break above range, which they have not, that'll just add to it. S&Ps was 6920, the high, we're at 6849. The Dow's high was 48331. We're at 47882. The NASDAQ high, a little farther away. where 23454 needs a little more work than NASDAQ.

And the NASDAQ-12-26-182 were at 25606. I just like the fact that the broad market, and I like the fact that the big banks, and I like the fact that some of the worst names are getting stronger. And as always, if anything changes, we'll let you know. in the aftermarket, Salesforce.com, a very weak software stock, up about $12.5.5 in the aftermarket to $251 on their numbers. Keep in mind, that topped out at $369, December of 24.

And by the way, the stock is trading. I didn't realize this. Salesforce.com is trading where it was, August of 2020. Really? Yeah, it's over five years. We'll see if they can come on. By the way, it's done that while earnings has still been going up, but much slower, much slower. Simple CRM. And two words, again, broad market. The big banks we follow are Bank of New York, Bank America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, and Wells Fargo. Morgan Stanley New High, Citigroup New High, Goldman Sachs getting close, Bank of New York

getting close, Bank of America getting close. J.P. Morgan's actually the weakest of the field. Wells Fargo is right there. And you add in other financials and the regionals, even the regional's better. Of course, tomorrow's another day. And of course, it is December and supposedly December's a good month for the market and this, that, and the other thing. Did I mention retail too? Okay, good. Good day. American Eagle Outfit is up three. bucks today new yearly high boot barn getting close something called Capri at new highs dollar tree decent reaction to earnings five below is up in the aftermarket on earnings Ralph Lauren recent good reaction Ross Stor's recent good reaction urban

Outford is recent good reaction so just add in a little bit of retail which has been on the weaker side and that's the story while my dog barks in the background don't you love that? My doggy, Winston, my cancer doggy. Three years ago, terminal cancer, they said, and he's doing great. And there you go. Ten year yield dropped today. Dollar dropped. And by the way, this Trump and his buddies want a weaker dollar, which is not good news overall, but does help on multinationals. And there's your story. Bitcoin up to today. As we told you, we thought maybe an island reversal. Maybe the bear is over. I don't know. To us, it's just a bounce in a bearish market, and we'll keep you apprised. And if anything changes, we'll let you know there also.

I think that covers it. What haven't we done yet? Oh, are we being taken to task? Politics, ladies and gentlemen, just remember, we have no bias. In the last week, I had one jackass email me and call me almost every name in the book because I'm too nice to Trump. I have another one saying I'm too mean to Trump. Interesting, huh? You get two different things from two different people because they're politics. Message to them. Get rid of your stupid bias and just watch policy and look forward.

for people to tell you the truth and not lie, whatever side of the aisle they are. So we'll cover that in a little bit. Why? Because there's some new stuff out that affects markets, affects economies, and it's a bunch of bull crap. Unfortunately, no income tax. Think of that. You're being sold a bill of goods from the leader of the free world on telling you His tariffs will cover no income taxes going forward.

You've got to be kidding me. Ladies and gentlemen, we're going to take the president to task on that, but we'll also compliment Michael Dell, doing great things for our children. Gotta love that. I expect more billionaires to follow suit as we move forward. Up next, a little bit of that.

This is the one only investor's edge. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game-trial. changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code

Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker.

The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confuse. used relatives, and saying things like, Sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing.

Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go.

Action! In the Gester's Edge. With Gary Culpa. So, as we always say, we just wish we can ever get back to the point where our politicians don't treat us like we're. like we're idiots and like we're stupid and like we're not watching. And I can't find one of them at this point. I think there may be somebody out there that is not just full of crap. And what do I mean by that?

The Speaker of the House, you think he's important, was asked what he thought about President Trump pardoning the ex-president of Honduras who was convicted and was going to jail for trafficking 400 pounds excuse me 400 tons of cocaine

I really didn't read into the story I can't tell you how much that pissed me off the Speaker of the House because of politics I can't say anything bad about the president yet our president Defender of the country

shooting down boats Little boats with people on it Pardon the guy Who was convicted In a court of law For trafficking 400 tons of cocaine So you know what that means to me

The unbiased one Go screw Don't tell me you're the drug president. Don't tell me you're defending the country on drugs. You're full of it. We start with that. He pardoned this white-collar criminal that stole billion, two billion dollars from people. Pardoned. Commuted the sentence. See ya. And it looks like that has something to do with restitution not having to pay the back. It's sickening. And I would say this, the president. And here's why. They're going to lose the election next year. Do you know they just

had a Tennessee special election last night where Trump won in the 20s? And the Republicans still won by nine little points in Red State Tennessee. Are you kidding me? If that ain't a warning shot, I don't know what it is. And you want to piss off independence, keep doing what you're doing. pardoning one of the biggest drug traffickers of the last decade white-collar criminals George Santos

and then there's the BS which we get 24-7 from the Marxist Party we don't want to get it from the party in power we're finding out in Minnesota that the governor knew about massive fraud

by a bunch of Somalians and did nothing about it because he was worried about being called a racist. Don't worry a few billion dollars stolen. But the president's now out saying, oh, we think we can get rid of the income tax and we're going to get rid of the income tax because the trillions we're bringing in in tariffs. Number one, trillions is a lie. That's number one. It's a lie. I don't want to be lied to anymore. I don't care who it is. Do you? Trillions. You're not bringing in trillions. The next part, it's a tax hike.

So you're going to hike taxes and just do it. Do you get my point? I just don't want to hear it anymore. And you should neither. So it's starting to add up with this precedent. For somebody who did so many good things, the border, fantastic. Crime. I love it.

I love that he's putting the National Guard in cities to fight crime, and the crime numbers are coming down. terrific. But then he stomps on his self at all this other crap. I don't get it. So I'm just letting you know the income tax ain't going anywhere. They're not bringing in trillions on the tariffs. They're bringing in a decent amount of money. I'm letting you know it's not coming in from somewhere else. China isn't paying for it. We're paying for it. They even had admit it. You know, why? Because we are paying for it. He just cut the tariffs on a bunch of products because we're paying for it.

He just cut tariffs on a bunch of food items because the consumers were paying for it. But now he's trying to go back to the BS, and it's just getting tiresome. And when I watch today, I'm saying to myself, come on, stop. You don't have to do that.

You're not getting rid of the income tax. You're not bringing in trillions. It's not coming in from elsewhere. And in fact, what you've been doing is cutting the tariffs down because they've been hurting. So stop the confusion. And the last part of the equation is if I had his ear. Then now all they're talking about is affordability. I got news for you.

There's no president can help with affordability except energy. Keep producing more. Energy prices come down. Simple as that. That'll do it. on interest rates, I worry. You may lower the Fed funds rates, but that may send the 10-year yield higher. We'll see.

The good news is Jay Powell is doing the president's bidding right now by stopping the runoff of his obscene printed money. Anyway, I have a little for everybody today on that. So the people that curse me out because I wasn't hard enough on the president and people who curse me out because I was too mean. Hey, you got a little bit of both for you today. All we want, ladies and gentlemen, is our leaders

keep taxes low, defend the country, fight crime, get rid of onerous regulations, get the hell out of the way. Is that asking much? You have a great evening. Drive carefully. When you get home, do like we do. It's quite simple.

Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children, they will feel better, you will feel better. I promise they will be well. Have a good night, everybody. Peace out. Bye-bye. This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com.

Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game-changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort.

That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect. Like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.

The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.