Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Broad market blues!
Episode Date: October 12, 2023https://garykaltbaum.com/...
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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum.
Straight talk about you and your money.
Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum.
And what once again to Investors Edge, I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host.
A thanks for being with us today.
Glad you're here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening.
It's Thursday, October 12, 2023.
Hope you're having a good day.
Other people around the globe or not.
Anyway, this is serious talk about everything that affects you.
And you know what that means.
The markets, the economy, jobs, unemployment, taxes, deficit spending, scams, shams, corruption,
the Morlocks in D.C. and everything else under the sun.
Thanks for joining us as our amount of people that email me on a daily basis
have picked up markedly over the last few months because we're dead serious without any bias.
latest update out of Israel is a lot of animals have been killed.
A lot of animals have been eradicated.
No, they're not militants.
They're not humans.
They're just animals.
And I think there's about 1,500 of them.
And let's get every single one of them.
And I hope they suffered.
I hope they felt pain before they went down south.
A few things that are going on now.
You know, you've been hearing about the $6 billion in Iran.
Iran, it looks like they are going to not let them have it.
Fine and dandy.
The Israeli, just so you know, about 300 and some odd thousand Israelis have been called up.
And Israelis, just so you know, Russians ran away from Russia not to be in the war.
Israelis run back to Israel.
from everywhere around the globe to fight for israel what a difference in people may i state for the
record uh what else as you know i am no big joe biden fan i have absolutely no problem with how
he's handling this uh so far would i have added a couple of things yeah but i think they've been
very full-throated and they actually i loved when the press secretary
Terry, who I have no love for either, said that the squad, you know, those anti-Semitic, anti-Jew, anti-Israel,
morons said that what they've been saying is repugnant.
Just so you know who these Marxists are, when Trump was president and you had the things at the border where kids were in cages and stuff,
they went down there and they were crying the blues.
And they took photo apps and they were crying and they were crying.
and wow, wow, wow, wow.
Now a ton of kids are in, I don't know if you know this because the media doesn't report it.
A ton of kids are in cages right now with the immigration problem that Biden brought on.
There's none of that anymore.
And now, we're not going to talk about how these people were murdered.
Now all of a sudden, well, yeah, we're not happy that children were killed,
but, but, but, but, I've never seen more buts in my life than these Marxist idiots like Bernie Sanders.
I mean, where do these people come from?
And the thing that sucks so bad is they vote on our future.
Yeah, but, yeah, but, yeah, but.
And I'll finish with this because I really do want to move on today.
tomorrow they're calling this thing a something jihad that there's a call for
worldwide jihad against Israel and stuff in big cities my suggestion just be a little bit
on the careful side you never know what sick twisted animal is amongst us or is
grown out of this just be careful I even text my sons that live in New York City just
Just be careful.
What these other idiots don't realize,
23 countries have dead murdered people by these animals.
23 countries.
And all these Americans that are congratulating these animals,
congratulating them, hip, hooray for them.
if they were at that concert in the desert, if they were in that kibbutz in Israel, they would have been murdered also.
But they don't think about that.
You know why?
Because their heads up, their arses.
That's what's going on.
That's where their head is.
And the good news is a lot of businesses have gone after these people at the colleges who were putting out these words.
getting their names and none of these people are going to get hired. One of these women were
kicked out of a big prestigious law firm for saying that they deserved it. They deserved it. You want to
ask yourself, where do people come from that would actually think this way? And you know what? Just for sanity,
I'm kind of getting past it because you just know they're depraved and they're depraved.
Anyway, we wish them well.
I am trying to get a hold.
Just so you know, personally, there have been many Americans trying to get out of Israel.
Finally, they're going to do some charter flights out of Israel for Americans.
I'm personally trying to get a hold of some people that paid for their own tickets to get out that couldn't afford it.
My family is going to cut a check.
those people. If we can find them, we put the word out to many areas. I just feel compelled
to do something like that. I just feel compelled. Okay, we segue. We have to segue. That's what we do.
We segue. So let me segue. In recent past, we have pulled no punches. We have told you, in spite
in spite and we actually did this whole thing yesterday about somebody on TV calling a bull market
and we went through all these areas that are in bear markets which is like 70% plus of the
market so today just to describe the big indices were holding up well again including some of the
big cap tech and the semis but throughout the
the morning while they were holding that up, I'm telling my peeps, just letting you know,
they're crumbling the market underneath the surface. I'm crumbling it. And what do I mean by that?
Well, the 70% of the market beat red. We sent out a webcast to our peeps like early in the
morning because when they had the big indices up, all my screens were beat red. It was like
10 names. And then something happened. They had a bond auction and it didn't go well because
nobody wants to buy bonds here. So interest rates spiked and guess what they did to the market.
You guessed that they smoked it. Now the major indices when I give out the final numbers were
off the lows, but they were way off the highs. But that doesn't matter because underneath the
surface, they're crumbling 70% of the market. And I don't use the word crumbling lightly,
which poses the question, what happens if they get the other 30? And by the way, 20% of the
market is okay. Maybe 10% is in shape. What if they get those? I got newsfea. The indices will crumble,
just like the Russell 2000, just crumbling. Two thousand stocks, the Russell 2000 today,
was down 2.2%. That's the equivalent of 700 Dow points. And it's 2,000.
stocks. The mid-cap 400, 2%, the equivalent of 670 Dow points. And then as I said, my screens,
they're beat red, except for a few semiconductors, a few oils, a smattering of this and that,
beat red. And what else have I told you? Advanced declines. How many stocks up down versus in the day?
they've been horrible
today
horrible
and even when the market
was up early
they were horrible
and we didn't know
they would crumble
the indices by the end of the day
even though they came off the lows
and we'll give the final numbers
in a minute
we're just letting you know
underneath the surface
anybody who has one of these
100 stock portfolios
with every
sector of the market
this stock that stock
you're getting crushed
The only way you're keeping in good stead right now,
Mega Cap Tech and a few other things.
Up next, we'll keep going. I'm Gary. This is the one that only Investor's Edge.
Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge.
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It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working.
You're listening to.
Hey, this promises to be fun.
Investors Edge.
The last bastion of quality programming.
With Gary Coltbaum.
It doesn't get better than this.
Hey, welcome once again to Investors Edge.
Thanks to being on a state.
By the way, a couple of people asked out of nowhere, my back's been 100% now.
for about I haven't had a spasm in two months amazingly and but my back kind of like not a
hundred percent to where you know it's tight and you get it it feels like it's gone and what I do
here's the amazing part so I went to this doctor who's with Jewett orthopedic and they were
bought out I think by Orlando Health here Orlando Health is huge here and I met this doctor
and he was a surgeon for the back.
And I was never going to have surgery,
but I was told he was the best,
and I wanted to know.
So he looked at my MRI,
and he says,
just so you know,
you don't have nerve damage,
you don't have this damage.
I go, wait, wait, wait, hold on,
but it feels like nerve.
No, no, no.
You have back spasms.
And I said to him,
you mean to tell me back spasms?
Before I even finish the sentence,
he says, yeah, it'll put you on your knees.
This is what he said to me.
I'm going to put you with a physical therapist and you're going to do these stretches and you're going to keep doing these stretches.
You're probably going to still have spasms every now and then.
Be careful.
You're going to be able to feel it.
You're going to know when you get up and how to get up and things like that.
But this is what I think is going on.
And if you do this, he said within 12 weeks, he thinks they'll be gone.
Do you know it was 11.5 weeks?
and then that was my last spasm.
It was a Sunday night.
And now we're good.
And every morning, 20 minutes.
Every night, 20 minutes.
And what I do is I do the hip flexors, the hamstrings, lower back, big time.
And it's working.
So you all just letting you know, for the thousands of you who emailed,
stretch.
I didn't do anything else.
Every now and then I did the Tens machine.
When I had the spasms, I put that on.
Boom, I thought it helped.
Who knows?
I did flexoril every now and then, but I hate pills.
Just so you know, I'm anti-alcohol anti-pills.
And we're good now.
But we're going to stay very judicious about it and be very smart about it.
Okay.
Back to segue.
Now, we're not making this up when we see.
this to you. Down trends. And we, this is not the first time we're doing this. Down trends. To us,
that simply means down two up one, down three up one, down four up one, down five up one, down five up two.
Down trends. Draw stair steps going down. That's how we define down trends. Imagine that's price.
and a mat assuming what the heck we're talking about in defining downtrends well we're going to repeat some things to you right now and they worsened even today housing downtrend in fact we called the top for you guys pretty much perfectly on the housing stocks in fact it was uh the date was august 17th housing
Not only housing, housing related.
What does that mean?
Restoration Hardware, Home Depot, and Lowe's.
Everything but William Sonoma because there's an activist there.
Floor and decor, things like that.
So housing, housing related in its own bare markets.
And when we use the term bare market, it doesn't have to be 20%.
It means downtrend and some things worse than others.
So housing and housing related, restaurants.
Restaurants are blasted.
And those are really in bare markets.
Consumer staples, food, drug, beverage, tobacco, household products.
Not all drugs because a couple of these drugs with the obesity things, they're strong.
But most of the drug stocks, weak as all hell.
Banks, downtrends.
And some of them just absolutely gross.
investment managers, investment bankers, downtrends, credit card companies, downtrends, regional banks, big downtrends, autos, bare market, big downtrends, auto dealers, solars have crashed.
retail of just about all stripes except
Abercrombie and Fitch
Costco
which is not bullish but not bearish
and
not sure there's many after that
industrials
downtrend utilities
downtrend
medicals of all stripes
down trend materials
downtrend
discretionary downtrend
casinos
airlines
cruise lines
downtrends
rails
truckers
downtrends
transports
down trends
steel
not only downtrends
but breaking them down badly
even more today
defense stocks were in a downtrend
but then you know what happened
still wouldn't trust them
hospitals
downtrend
want me to continue because I can
Golden, silver, downtrend
Coal just topped
and topped pretty badly
Most semiconductor stocks
even though the semis were strong today
Why do I say that? Because it's like six names now
You know how the big seven
In tech?
Well there's like the big five or six now
In the semiconductor index
And I don't know if that's going to last
Farm machinery, downtrend, real estate, downtrends.
China, downtrend, emerging markets, downtrend, the EFA index, downtrem.
A ton of stocks that topped out in 21, downtrend slash bare markets, a ton of them that have been trying to rally from October that just topped out in the last two months, downtrends.
oils there are some oils in downtrends even though oil prices have popped it's just mixed bag there
the fang index downtrends the arc funds downtrends shall i continue but a select group of software names
big tech names, a smattering of Amgen and the Dow,
AFLAC and insurance, CME and the CBOE in the exchanges,
Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk and Drugs,
as I said, software synopsis, Palo Alto networks,
smattering, but I got news for you.
Down trends up the wazoo.
Not to mention bond market, downtrend.
You ready?
Advance the clients on the New York today.
727 up, 3192 down.
NASDAQ 1088 up, 3,014 down.
How about those?
Up next, we'll continue.
This is the one only investor's edge.
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That's Tommyjohn.com, code comfort.
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airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One VentureX card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge
access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker.
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America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on
his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Coltbaum.
It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him.
So today was quite wicked.
It was wicked today. Leave no doubt.
I'm writing the highs and the lows as I speak.
Okay.
I think I got that right.
No, that's not correct.
13491. There you go.
So, today, at the close, the Dow was down 173.
the S&P 27, NASDAQ 85, NASDAQ-17 transports 161.
I told you the advanced declines.
The Russell 2000 and mid-caps smoked again today.
Interesting enough, the Dow at one time today was up 230, 631, 863, was up about 60.
At one time today was down 360.
The NASDAQ, which was down 85.
today, at one time today, I'll get in a second, was up 60 also.
At one time today, it was down 160.
But what didn't change all day, and I've been telling my peeps pay less attention to the indices.
As I scan, it just worsens.
The new yearly low list picked up again today.
And remember what we talk about here, price and patterns, interpreting downtrends, interpreting a position in a downtrends to keep going lower in that downtrends.
Then there's the uptrends.
It takes me two minutes to list the uptrends.
So when I give you all these sectors, we're not whistling Dixie.
We're telling you what's going on with price and patterns.
And if you're one of those people that has, let's say you own, oh, I got to own a few transports,
so I own Avis rent a car, got to have Delta Airlines, and I got to own some steel stocks, so I'm going to own New Corps,
or I got a couple of restaurants, so I'm going to own Starbucks and Shake Shack.
Okay, fine.
Oh, and don't worry about those financials.
Oh, they're great companies.
Bank American City Group.
and if you own, you know, you got to own some medicals.
So Idex Labs in Stryker, okay, terrific.
Oh, retail, you got to have a piece of retail,
and you own Decker's Outdoor and Restoration Hardware,
and you bought Target two years ago, and you're down 40%.
And then, of course, you got to own, oh, you got to own the big brands.
You got to own some Disney.
It's Disney.
Oh, it's down 55% from the highs.
Yeah, sure, terrific.
and the big restaurant McDonald's, the stock's being trashed.
Oh, but you've got to diversify around the world.
Don't you hear that all the time?
Gotta go international.
Let's go international.
Go international.
No, no, you've got to go international.
You've got to have a piece in international.
You've got to be foreign.
Yeah, that's right, right.
You've got to own small caps.
You've got to own some midcaps.
Don't just own big caps.
You've got to own some small caps.
The Russell 2000's down almost 30% in two years.
China's where it was in the emerging markets where it was like 80 years ago and way off the highs.
City Group is down 90% from 2008.
Did you know that?
City Group's down 90% since 2008.
Did a 1 for 10 split.
Not making that up.
And then of course you got to own the gold.
Got own the gold.
Got own gold.
Gold.
Gold.
No, gold, gold.
Because you know why.
They're going to kill the dollar, dollar, dollar.
And everything's bad.
the gold, gold, gold, and inflation this, inflation, that, and gold's in a bare market.
So you own all these areas, and you're getting cheesed.
And the best of names are getting cheesed.
But if you own a select group of mega-cap names where money's flowing because it's very liquid, all's well.
And for the life of me, I don't know what happened today.
But the equipment makers, these are semiconductor.
They make equipment.
Amat, KLAC, Lamb Research, were strong today.
Broadcom strong today.
They were off the highs, but strong today.
So I don't know what the heck is going on.
And I didn't see any news except some AI crap yesterday from Adobe, which was strong again today,
even though it was up 20, finished only up 9.
But we're just letting you know our job is really easy right now.
We don't own any bare market stocks.
We don't own any of these bare markets areas.
because we know what bare markets look like.
That's all.
The only thing we own, we own some mega cap tech.
That's it.
And the stronger ones.
And we're scared crapless of owning anything.
And we got, you know, one eye looking one way and the other eye, you know.
Why?
Because let me explain markets to you.
The weaker they get.
The more money is parked in a select few names that hold up the indices so well,
which, by the way, is classic.
Remember what we tell you when markets get defensive, they go defensive.
And what's defensive these days?
Parking Apple.
Defensive used to be like big banks, but nobody trusts them anymore.
They turned into nothing but bookies that are still paying you two tens of percent on your money.
Because they care about you so much.
yes the banks
2 tenths of a percent
while they're getting 5
on your money
that's 5 percent
so just letting you know
we have no idea what the market does tomorrow
not a clue
we're just letting you know
the ice got even thinner today
while most of the day they were holding things up
like a rock
the good news is it did come off the lows
after just, I got to tell you some just wicked wild swings today.
Just so you know, the NASDAQ went from 13-712 to 13491 in like an hour and a half before bouncing up.
But we don't care because most of the market is in bigger trouble by the day.
And I have to tell you, we're actually surprised.
We're told it's October seasonality.
Gotta have seasonality, seasonality.
I got news for them.
We've had this one mantra, 10-year yield.
On the bad bond auction today,
4712 up 1.17 today.
That's what did a lot of it.
And as I look at technically on yields,
it's in an uptrend.
Pulled back for a few days, but uptrend.
and that was an ugly bar today.
And that's what did it.
So I'm grateful, or you should be grateful,
that the market bounced off the lows today.
Not the broad market.
I wish I had better news.
But anybody who thinks
were off to the races when 70% of the market,
if not more, is bearish in downtrends,
they don't know what the hell they're talking about.
So we'll continue to accentuate what is.
It's just getting narrower.
It's been software, some big tech, and a smattering of stuff.
I can name some names, McKesson and drugs, Amgen and the Dow.
I mentioned the CME and the CBOE.
There's some things.
It's just narrowing again today and worsening again today.
And how do I know this?
because we work our tails off.
We work our tails off.
And we mean business.
When all heck is breaking loose.
Remember, the indices have a makeup.
When you have a chance tonight,
I just want you to look at the Russell 2000
and tell me what you think
on whether it's a bull market or not.
Just look at that.
And you'll have your answer.
Go look at the regional bank index.
Let's look at KRE.
Regional banks.
You'll get your answer.
Go look at Bank America, BAC.
You'll get your answer.
Don't dare look at Hershey's.
They're just...
They've crashed a lot of the food and beverage stocks.
They've crashed them.
For lack of a better way.
Hormel today, down another time.
10% that's spam.
On that note, up next,
whatever else we can think of. I'm Gary. This is the one
only investors, Ed.
Guys, it's no use putting it off.
The best time for an underwear refresh is now.
Tommy John Underwear is designed for a
perfect fit that stays put all day.
Their zero chafed thanks to four times more
stretch than competing brands, and
their innovative horizontal quick-drop fly
is a game changer. With over
30 million pairs sold, there are thousands
of men out there more comfortable than you.
Don't settle for less.
Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort.
That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort.
Tommy John.
Comfort perfected.
This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card.
Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect,
like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect.
Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase,
bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination.
Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.
The Capital One Venture X card.
What's in your wallet?
Terms apply.
Lounge access is subject to change.
See Capital One.com for details.
This episode is brought to you by Sprecker.
The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain.
Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives,
and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio.
If this sounds familiar, your performance.
probably already a podcaster.
The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple.
You record your show, upload it once,
and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen.
Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing.
Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads,
meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones.
Start your show today at spreeker.com.
Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour,
you might as well publish it.
You're listening to
What are we waiting for?
Well, what are you waiting for?
One, two, ready, go.
Action!
And welcome once again to Investor's Edge.
So in the news, and just letting you know,
these scumbags, Hamas is called a global day of jihad.
I don't know what the hell that means,
and let's just hope tomorrow, you know,
for them. I don't want to even go further than that. Just in big cities, one would suggest just,
you know, you know, be careful of the talk about world wars and stuff. These people love selling
things. Believe me, it's in no interest to have world wars. I can promise you that. And do
not forget, most Arab countries are dealing with Israel, partnering with Israel. That is not
going to change. Just letting you know. But, you know, I just, as they say, be careful.
Bob Menendez in the news, he was accused of acting as a foreign agent for Egypt helming Senate
Foreign Relations Committee. Bob Menendez should be kicked in the grapefruit.
Treason. As a senator. By the way, he is a nefarious dude. You can go back and see what he's
been accused of throughout the years that somehow he got away with it. And this one he's caught.
As I think I said yesterday, they found gold bars in $400,000 cash in his place. Yeah, I do that on per.
I keep $400,000 in cash because I like keeping cash around. You never know if I have to go to
Chipotle and get a burrito. And, you know, anyway, in the news, have you noticed all the strikes?
Now a pharmacist are walking out of Walgreens nationwide.
And they're not even asking for money, I don't think.
They're talking about conditions.
And I'm not so sure that's good news.
You don't want to see patients go out without their prescriptions and all that stuff.
But there's been a lot of that going on.
Hey, in the news, I did not win the Powerball.
I got 10 tickets.
I didn't met you.
I don't even think I matched the number.
somebody else in California
1.765 billion
and by the way just so you know how it works
two years ago let's say if it was a billion
you would get 700 million up front
now it's only like 500 million up front
what gives well back then you had zero percent rates
now you have 5 percent rates
and that's how that gets worked out
whatever
in the news
now that's not news
Nah, that's not news.
I'm just going through some things.
The UAW is now the strike is hitting Ford's biggest factory.
I have to tell you, you know why the UAW keeps doing what they're doing?
Because they know everybody's going to get back pay.
If they knew they wouldn't get back pay, I don't think it would be that way.
What they've been asking for, in my opinion is ridiculous.
but in my opinion
I have no problem with them asking for more
but to get the kind of money they want
on four day work weeks
take a hike
in the news
well I was wrong
I reported to you last week
that Disney is lowering prices
and they finally listen to me
well they did for children now they're raising
prices
they raise prices on
yearly passes
and they raise prices on regular
passes
and like Disneyland.
I didn't see it in Disney World,
so I don't know what the hell I was talking about.
Then again, I thought the iPod was just a walkman.
Anyway, I was wrong on that.
In the news,
hey, Trump said Hezbollah smart yesterday.
He called the defense person of Israel an idiot.
You people that love Trump, if you can reach him,
tell him to shut the hell up.
kissing the arse of the worst people while putting down the people that are trying to do the right thing.
This is the main reason I don't want to hit this guy running the country.
He's ill.
There are better people running than him.
Yeah, but he had good policies.
I got news for you.
We had good policies.
In the news, consumer prices did rise higher than expected for the second day in a row.
Well, they had producer yesterday, consumer, and as we have told you, very simply, inflation's here.
Remember how they report inflation.
Well, last year it was up 9%.
This year is up 3.5%.
So it's much better, but not really.
Because if it was up 9% last year and 3.5% this year, that means it's 3.5% above the 9% from last year.
So how is that inflation going down?
And as I have told you, I'm the one who goes to publics.
I'm the one who's told you, go buy the chocolates for Halloween.
You know, the big bag of Hershey's chocolates, the ones that used to go for 1099,
that are now, I think, 1599.
That's what we mean by inflation.
You know, the little chocolate things, that if you eat one, you eat eight of them,
and that's how you get bigger.
And it's everything.
Everything's up in price.
Paper goods, outrageous.
But I'm good.
I know when they put out the specials.
I got some charm in the other day for like 40% off.
So when they tell you about inflation, don't believe them.
The rate of inflation may be down.
It better be down.
But inflation, prices are the highest they've been.
Prices for autos, record highs.
Prices for used autos, record highs.
Housing, the distortions they created there.
Prices haven't been coming down for a simple reason.
Who wants to sell a 3% mortgage and get an 8% mortgage?
That'll change eventually and then look out.
So inflation, you know where we stand.
Bank deposits, that's going to get interesting.
As people are finding out how banks are so bad and paying them 2 tenths of a percent,
they're going.
They're leaving.
Less bank deposits, less bank earnings.
Bank trouble.
You've already seen some of that.
We're staying on top of it.
All right, tomorrow, I should be on noon Fox Business Network with the great Neil Cavuto,
the best in the business.
And of course, until tomorrow, the same time radio show you have a great evening drive carefully.
And when you get home to like we do quite simple, make sure you hug your family,
make sure you hug your children.
They will feel better.
You will feel better.
I promise.
Have a great one, everybody.
Always appreciate you listening.
Peace out all.
Same time tomorrow.
Bye bye.
This has been Investor's Edge with.
Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk.
To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary,
go to GaryK.com.
That's GaryK.com.
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